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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democra
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination
The first thing I did on my return last night from an intensive tour of Israel and Palestine was to place a bet at 50/1 with Ladbrokes on the defeated 2004 presidential candidate, John Kerry, for the Democratic party nomination in the 2016 White House race. Alas the bookie has now cut the price to 25/1 though you can still get him at 40/1 with other firms.
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Kerry's too old, too white, and too male. None of which should discount him from the presidency, but they will.
Although if Clinton blows up, who knows
John Kerry has had his chance and he lost to the worst President in my life time. He has been a good Secretary of State and has arguably achieved more in Iran etc than Clinton did in her 4 years but this is his swan song and then goodbye from public life. No doubt a senior academic post awaits and it will suit him well.
On his performance in the last couple of years he might have been a good President (certainly better than Bush) but we will never know. Even if Hilary's health stops her from running I do not see him being in the frame. The precedent, I suppose, is Nixon. Hmmm...
He would need to be an alchemist, and that job-title went out of fashion several centuries ago, for obvious reasons. It became evident after several thousands of years of top-notch brains applying themselves to the problem that you just cannot transmutate crap into gold.
Of course, the Yookay has more of its fair share of blame for creating the crap in the first place.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandatory_Palestine
However Kerry is a poor candidate - very wooden and the success of his charisma by-pass is there for all to see.
In contrast if Hillary runs she wins and every time a poll in a battleground state shows her cruising to the Presidency the chance of a viable Democrat challenging her for the nomination diminishes from marginal to slim .... and even Slim appears to have left town.
Todays Quinnipiac's poll in Ohio, highlighted on the last but one thread by HYUFD, shows Hillary crushing all GOP candidates by significant margins - 9-17 points.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2010
I'd need another reason as thats a lottery, even as a market movement bet.
Compare and contrast:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26284047
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/30/dredging-rivers-floods-somerset-levels-david-cameron-farmers
And so the experts (not Monbiot) proclaim: As I said passim, the Levels are downstream. Allowing the rivers there to silt up is not a solution, unless you are are more interested in wildlife than human life.
Also note the 'experts' pretty much agreeing with what I've said on here over the last few weeks. Except I did not suggest SuDS for existing dwellings, as it would be very expensive:
- Use of forestry and land management to hold back water in the upper reaches of rivers, as well as dredging for the lower reaches
- Fitting sustainable drainage systems on existing buildings and new buildings
- Buildings and land that cannot be properly protected should be made to withstand flooding
- All new housing on flood plains must be resilient when built
- More co-operation between experts, the water companies, internal drainage boards, local authorities, the Environment Agency, and Natural Resources Wales, as well as between them and landowners or residents
Also as I said passim, Lord Smith is hopeless. And it looks as though he's going to be put in charge of newspaper regulation. He should just admit he's hopeless and walk away from his many jobs.(shakes his head and mutters)
Israel and palestine are fascinating places with surprises everywhere.
Imagine what it must be like living in a country that is not happily unified and where the people of different regions don’t pull together with a common purpose and sense of identity.
Several times.
On Kerry, while I too hae me doots about anything predicated on success in the Middle East, one should not forget OGH record of spotting early long shots which turn out well.
As for the mess in the Middle East, while were bandying blame around, let us not forget where the author of the Balfour Declaration was born.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_James_Balfour
Scottish Parliament voting intention - constituency vote (FPTP)
SNP 44% (-1)
Lab 31% (-1)
Con 13% (-1)
LD 6% (-2)
Scottish Parliament voting intention - regional vote (AMS)
SNP 41% (-3)
Lab 28% (+2)
Con 13% (+1)
LD 8% (+3)
Note: the changes are shown in comparison to the last Scottish GE in 2011 rather than the last Survation VI poll due to the change in Survation's methodology. Those changes were:
SNP 44% (+6)
Lab 31% (-5)
Con 13% (+1)
LD 6% (-3)
Are we having a thread about the poll claiming most Scots want an Eck Plan B? He could borrow one from Ed Balls. He has more plans than a cartographer.
Off to watch GE 1974 on Politics channel. I've got lots of boring employment contracts to write today so should help pass a few hours.
The rest of it was institutional incompetence. And I cannot see any government, yet alone a Labour one, criminalising incompetence.
Greens
rounding
UKIP
... in that order.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Scotland-Issues-Poll-Report.pdf
It shows:
UKIP: 3
Green: 2
'He lives in the realms of pure fantasy that guy - thinks the Holocaust didn't happen and that Obama wasn't born in the States.'
But along with JackW has a fantastic record of predicting GE election results.
Just ignore the fact that his mum was English, he was educated at Eton and Cambridge, and he was an MP for 3 English constituencies.
UKIP 3% (+3)
Grn 2% (+2) (Note: the Greens do not put up candidates in the FPTP elections.)
So, that accounts neatly for the missing 5% and we can ignore rounding.
John Kerry would obviously be enhanced by such a development, but the fact he lost to George W Bush and is the only Democrat to lose the popular vote since 1988 is a millstone round his neck.
Would the place be all peace and goodwill if it was not for Israel? Ask a Syrian.Or an Iraqi.Or a Kurd. Or an Armenian. Or an Assyrian Christian etc etc.
The sad truth is that Israel is the safest place in the middle east to be Jewish, Christian, Bahai or athiest. It is even the safest place to be a Muslim. No mosque bombings or Jihdi beheadings there.
Will invite other two leaders but will do it with just Clegg.
Even when a Scotsman was in charge. At times they veer towards the 'No True Scotsman' fallacy, as Stuart does below. "He may have been born in East Lothian, but his mum was English, and he was an English MP."
The only thing he didn't add was: TRAITOR!
;-)
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes · 2 mins
Lab Lady problem: Hazel Blears & Meg Munn makes it 11.1% of female Labour MPs standing down this Parliament to Tories' 8.3% Via @tomdaylight
The real underlying dynamic is the unresolved civil war within Islam. The Shia / Sunni divide is truly vicious - as always seems to be the case for intra-religious divides.
If Israel disappeared into the sea tomorrow the region would still be pressure cooker.
Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1
The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.
It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.
Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?
ONS Retail Sales for January up 4.3% (Volume) and 4.4% (Value) when Jan 2014 compared to Jan 2013.
Public Finances: ONS report £4.7 billion SURPLUS.
Much more later.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/11/9348/11
You think describing sceptics as "right wing nutters" makes your case either stronger or more persuasive?
"In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/
There is, however, a big 'if' in that first sentence. We shouldn't forget that there will undoubtedly be some opposition to any deal from both sides in the Middle East and that will produce some anti-agreement feeling in Congress who feel that Israel has been sold out. After that, we're debating detail and the public loses interest.
There's a reason that Rod thinks that there's a convention that Secretaries of State don't run for the presidency: the fact that none has made the transition for over 150 years and very few have even tried. However, it's not a nicety; it's that the job doesn't naturally set up candidates (and, relatedly, those who do have presidential ambitions therefore don't go there).
Hillary was very much an exception to that rule as someone who already had a national profile and would have been diminished by another eight years in the Senate, whereas serving as SoS kept her in a senior position without having to trouble with the detail of legislation. By contrast, Kerry doesn't really have that profile despite his previous, failed, run at the White House.
Foreign policy can propel an individual to the presidency, but it's winning wars that's the route, not winning peace.
Swinney is a star of the current government. A real breath of fresh air after the tedious list of Labour duds: McConnell. Mackay, Kerr and McCabe.
Methinks someone made a slight error here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26286713
"The total pile of government debt now stands at £1.24bn, equivalent to 74.6% of the UK's total economic output."
The surplus recorded in January 2014 (£4.7 billion) was lower than in January 2013 (£6 billion after removing the effects of APF transfers).
On a year to date basis PSNB ex (and excluding all the one offs) is reported to be £90.7 bn which is £4 bn lower than at the same time last year.
The smaller January surplus this year may suggest lower than expected tax revenues but is more likely to be a phasing issue. January is usually the peak month for tax receipts (corporation tax installments and Self Assessed Income Tax payments are both due in January) ONS has warned though that there can be substantial drift of receipts into February and are promising a full breakdown and analysis in next month's bulletin. Another possible reason for understatement is that at this stage of reporting only 40% of the data is 'hard': the balance being estimated.
Although there are definitely very odd things going on with the Public Finances (more on this over the weekend), falling tax receipts are among the most unlikely outturns given the growth in consumption, GDP and employment over the past nine months.
Central Government Net Cash Requirement is much better measure of real borrowing as this figure is the main driver of gilts and TBills ssuance by the DMO (i.e. real borrowing).
For the year to date at the end of January, NCR was £49.7 billion, £21.9 billion lower than the same period in 2012/13, when it was £71.6 billion.
Borrowing is running just £4bn lower than 2012-13.
Which raises lots of interesting questions about the real underlying strength of this very Tory looking "recovery".
Bad luck for humans eh ?
I can't see it myself (He's like Mitt Romney without the personality) and he's the only Democratic Party Candidate to lose the popular vote in the last six Presidential Elections but I've still had a punt.
It is easy to do after thirteen years of Labour folly.
The actual Public Sector Net Debt is 136.7% of GDP or £2,215,583 million (£2.2 trillion). This is down from the end 2009-10 151.7% ratio George inherited from Gordon.
The PSND ex figures (which you quoted) are reported as £1,239,606 or 73.8% of GDP in the ONS bulletin release this morning (see Table PSF6B), so a slight (but not significant) difference in the ratio to that you have quoted.
The Iowa caucus kicks off the formal process at the start of 2016, but how early in 2015 would Kerry need a deal secured so that it wouldn't look like he was abandoning the process halfway through to have another tilt at the Presidency?
Working in the energy sector, I regularly used trillions to talk of gas reserves (x trillion cubic feet of gas). Indeed, the gas reserves of Qatar can be talked of in terms of point something of a quadrillion cubic feet.
The Treasury remit to the Debt Management Office for Gilt and Treasury Bill Issuance is dependent upon the Central Government Net Cash Requirement (CGNCR). At the time of the Autumn Forecast, Osborne reduced the planned amount of gilt/tbill issuance by £15.5 billion over the final quarter of this fiscal year on the basis of the first nine months CGNCR outturns. In other words, the cash position of the government was so good three quarters of the way into the fiscal year that Osborne was able to cancel 10% of the DMO's net borrowing plans (net of needs to roll over existing borrowing as gilts and bills mature)
You could argue that the wider measure of Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (PSNCR) is more properly the driver of actual borrowing but due to the interventions into the banking sector the PSNCR has consistently delivered surpluses so can be mostly disregarded for the purposes of calculating the cash needed to be raised in the markets.
As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!
Ooh you little tease!
"I've been chatting to Williams technical boss Pat Symonds and he has some illuminating views on why Renault are in trouble at the moment. 'After the engine freeze on the V8s a few years ago they did downsize Renault Sport in Viry,' Symonds said. 'I think they are paying the price for that now because when the new engine requirement came along, they didn't have the people, they didn't have the infrastructure to really exploit it. And I suspect they probably didn't have the budget as well. But there are some good people there. I know them very well and I have the utmost respect for them, so there is no complacency on our side.' We'll put Symonds's views to Renault engine chief Rob White when we speak to him later on."