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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democra

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  • RodCrosby said:

    Neil said:

    Rod will explode - having previously told us how Hillary cant win because ex-SoSs cant run for the Presidency the thought of two of them going for it could overwhelm him completely.

    He lives in the realms of pure fantasy that guy - thinks the Holocaust didn't happen and that Obama wasn't born in the States.
    I have never stated that Obama wasn't born in the USA, and I merely reject the application of a trademark coined in the 1970s to describe the complex and tragic events in Europe in the 1940s...
    Survivors of the Nazi holocaust in Europe, as well as Jews from other parts of the world, continued to migrate to Eretz-Israel, undaunted by difficulties, restrictions and dangers, and never ceased to assert their right to a life of dignity, freedom and honest toil in their national homeland.

    http://www.knesset.gov.il/docs/eng/megilat_eng.htm

    Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel, 14 May 1948
  • @PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 38 (=); Cons 32 (-1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://t.co/kY1Ktuvvsj

    Scottish split: Lab 35%, SNP 32%, Con 16%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%

    In case you missed it, today's YouGov Scottish Sub-sample.

    Lab 36, Con 30, SNP 24, LD 6
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    As for the mess in the Middle East, while were bandying blame around, let us not forget where the author of the Balfour Declaration was born.....

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_James_Balfour

    A boner fidee ethnic nationalist!

    Isn't it fun how the MIddle East mess is presented as a Scottish creation because Arthur Balfour was born in East Lothian.
    You started the topic by presenting it as a UK mess - I was merely adding detail..
    The Middle East mess was a catastrophe created by the British Establishment. Nothing new there: they've created thousands of them.
    Actually if you talk to people in Jerusalem they say that the British Mandate was pretty beneficial (e.g. the water system was built by the Brits). A lot of the issues were caused by the French...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014

    AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"

    Ooh you little tease!

    All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.

    If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!

    Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
  • @PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 38 (=); Cons 32 (-1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://t.co/kY1Ktuvvsj

    Scottish split: Lab 35%, SNP 32%, Con 16%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%

    In case you missed it, today's YouGov Scottish Sub-sample.

    Lab 36, Con 30, SNP 24, LD 6
    Still shows SNP well up on 2010, despite YG's idiotic weightings.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited February 2014
    Yes, the global climate models overestimated the warming, but the trend for global temperatures is still up (though not as fast as predcited).

    The slowdown in the warming can be attributed to cyclical global patterns - the cool phase of the PDO, ENSO predominately in a neutral or La-Nina state etc.

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
  • Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2014
    Charles said:

    Mike, you do realise that "50/50" is Israeli for "It's not going to happen but I want the other side to veto it"?

    Right, the Israeli goal since forever has been to make it look like a proper Palestinian state that they don't control is right around the corner, but not quite happening yet. Once they admit that they intend to hang onto the territory forever they have to answer all kinds of awkward questions about how long they're going to keep the apartheid system going, and why they won't give the people who live there the vote.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    GeoffM said:

    murali_s said:

    OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1

    The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.

    It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.

    Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?

    As someone who was called an "extreme right winger" on here the other night, I assume I'm included here. I'll take that bet.

    PM me and we'll arrange it.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "... a mind that just can't register really big numbers ..."

    Very few people understand big numbers and even fewer really big numbers. Probably a good proportion of educated people could tell you that a billion in a thousand million (US definition seems to have become generally accepted) but very few of them understand the scale of the difference. A trillion is just outside the imagination of the vast majority.
  • @PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 38 (=); Cons 32 (-1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://t.co/kY1Ktuvvsj

    Scottish split: Lab 35%, SNP 32%, Con 16%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%

    Con 30
    Don't!
    Some of the surgers are getting on and can't take much excitement.
  • Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
  • AveryLP said:

    Public Finances
    ...
    The smaller January surplus this year may suggest lower than expected tax revenues but is more likely to be a phasing issue. January is usually the peak month for tax receipts (corporation tax installments and Self Assessed Income Tax payments are both due in January) ONS has warned though that there can be substantial drift of receipts into February and are promising a full breakdown and analysis in next month's bulletin...

    I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment, so that will presumably have a massive impact on comparing these figures with previous years.

    This is unfortunate, because I was hoping that the tax receipts from self-assessment would show whether the boom in self-employment is primarily a result of a genuine growth in self-initiated economic activity, or mostly a DWP ruse to reduce the unemployment numbers.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    If you've been following the peace process, you'll know that the current Israeli government is further away from the agreement brought in by Bill Clinton than any one since that time, and Abbas has less credibility with the Palestinians than ever. A peace deal isn't going to happen. Even if one did, it would need to get through the Senate where the Republicans will have at least half the seats and still consider every foreign policy compromise as a Neville Chamberlain sell-out. Even if he did get the deal, Kerry wouldn't have a fundraising outfit, as the one he used in 2004 was the North East machine that's now firmly committed to Clinton. In addition, the base of the party has concluded he was a poor performing candidate, and, if they don't get Clinton, would rather someone from the liberal wing of the party.

    You might make some money trading odds, but this has as much chance of happening as Jon Huntsman getting the GOP nod last time.
  • @PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 38 (=); Cons 32 (-1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://t.co/kY1Ktuvvsj

    Scottish split: Lab 35%, SNP 32%, Con 16%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%

    Con 30
    Don't!
    Some of the surgers are getting on and can't take much excitement.
    Shhh. Just let them roll with it.
  • Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
    And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737


    Survivors of the Nazi holocaust in Europe, as well as Jews from other parts of the world, continued to migrate to Eretz-Israel, undaunted by difficulties, restrictions and dangers, and never ceased to assert their right to a life of dignity, freedom and honest toil in their national homeland.

    http://www.knesset.gov.il/docs/eng/megilat_eng.htm

    Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel, 14 May 1948

    You are not listening, obviously, or the point is too subtle for you... I said the use of "The H" [proprietary "the" and capital "H"] did not appear until the 1970s.
  • "... a mind that just can't register really big numbers ..."

    Very few people understand big numbers and even fewer really big numbers. Probably a good proportion of educated people could tell you that a billion in a thousand million (US definition seems to have become generally accepted) but very few of them understand the scale of the difference. A trillion is just outside the imagination of the vast majority.

    You should try doing it in Chinese! We put the comma after every 3 zeroes - so talk in millions, billions, trillions. They put the comma after every 4 zeroes and think in terms of how many 10,000s or how many 100,000,000s. We would say 4.5 million, they would say 4,500 Wan (one Wan being 10,000). We think of their population as 1.3 billion. They think of it as 13 Yi (one Yi being a hundred million). Translating big numbers correctly into Chinese is a nightmare.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014

    AveryLP said:

    Public Finances
    ...
    The smaller January surplus this year may suggest lower than expected tax revenues but is more likely to be a phasing issue. January is usually the peak month for tax receipts (corporation tax installments and Self Assessed Income Tax payments are both due in January) ONS has warned though that there can be substantial drift of receipts into February and are promising a full breakdown and analysis in next month's bulletin...

    I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment, so that will presumably have a massive impact on comparing these figures with previous years.

    This is unfortunate, because I was hoping that the tax receipts from self-assessment would show whether the boom in self-employment is primarily a result of a genuine growth in self-initiated economic activity, or mostly a DWP ruse to reduce the unemployment numbers.
    I wasn't aware of HMRC's extended deadline so thanks on that Oblitus. It would explain ONS's unusual reticence to back this month's figures as solid.

    An additional factor may be the introduction of the 45% top rate. As the self employed generally pay tax assessed on a prior year basis then this month's receipts are likely to be distorted in a similar way to last year's PAYE receipts (though less so because bonuses will pay a smaller role in the earnings of most self employed). Robert Chote has been banging on about this in his commentaries on the last two months Public Finances bulletins.
  • RodCrosby said:


    Survivors of the Nazi holocaust in Europe, as well as Jews from other parts of the world, continued to migrate to Eretz-Israel, undaunted by difficulties, restrictions and dangers, and never ceased to assert their right to a life of dignity, freedom and honest toil in their national homeland.

    http://www.knesset.gov.il/docs/eng/megilat_eng.htm

    Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel, 14 May 1948

    You are not listening, obviously, or the point is too subtle for you... I said the use of "The H" [proprietary "the" and capital "H"] did not appear until the 1970s.
    And that matters because?

  • Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
    And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..

    The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.

    Then in December last year

    Belgium: EU is closed to Scots

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"

    Ooh you little tease!

    All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.

    If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!

    Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
    "2014 GE" - now that would be an interesting yellow box !


  • SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.


    Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?

    You do know it's perfectly possible to acknowledge the data in GW without "believing" (again, the language of faith, not science) in AGW?

    You think describing sceptics as "right wing nutters" makes your case either stronger or more persuasive?
    It's possible to believe in GW (I think I do), it's possible to believe in AGW (I'm open to persuasion) and still believe that we need to adapt to it, rather than fight it.
    There is enough uncertainty that it is reasonable to argue for adaptation rather than prevention, and there is also the advantage that it does not require comprehensive international cooperation - making it appealing to a more isolationist outlook. I don't agree with that judgement, but I think the climate debate would be a lot healthier if that was the ground it was fought on.

    For those who look for self-interest as a primary motivation it's worth noting that an adaptation strategy is the one that involves most spending on climate science, as one requires large improvements in the precision of the predictions in order to correctly prioritise adaptation spending. It is interesting, therefore, that many climate scientists argue for prevention of global warming, even though this would go against their self-interest.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment... "

    Really, nobody told me and nobody told my accountant either, and I got the usual January reminder from HMRC about the dire penalties I would be subject to if the paperwork wasn't filed by 31st January. If they extended the deadline that meant I didn't leave it to the last minute and I paid earlier then I actually had to. Damn, I hate doing that when it come to money to HMG.
  • RandomRandom Posts: 107

    Charles said:

    Mike, you do realise that "50/50" is Israeli for "It's not going to happen but I want the other side to veto it"?

    Right, the Israeli goal since forever has been to make it look like a proper Palestinian state that they don't control is right around the corner, but not quite happening yet. Once they admit that they intend to hang onto the territory forever they have to answer all kinds of awkward questions about how long they're going to keep the apartheid system going, and why they won't give the people who live there the vote.
    The Palestinian Authority has had presidential and parliamentary elections in 1996 and 2005 (the reason why there hasn't been any since is because Hamas and the PLO can't agree on terms to hold an election, not Israeli obstructionism) and local elections in 2005, 2010 and 2012, and of course Arabs in Israel proper have voted in every Knesset election since 1960 or so. That's a heck of a lot of voting for people who are supposedly denied the vote - more in fact than in most of the rest of the Arab middle-east - but then I've long since observed that actual facts are if anything an obstacle to discussing Israel-related issues:-/
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2014
    OblitusSumMe

    Is the issue not that if we spend on prevention we will anyway fail as cliamte change is outside the ability of any one country (possibly all of mankind) to control. You will have to spend on the adaptation piece anyway - and so pay twice. Is it not better to forget prevenetation and just get busy with adaptation (flood defences, irrigation schemes, etc)?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!

    My prediction is for a surge in yellow box production.
    You can place early orders for increased customer satisfaction.

    I can even do a changes in funding of government pension plans yellow box if you want to idle away the weekend!

    But the information is so terse that it is difficult to see whether George is repairing holes or just building up provisions for future release.

    If you don't already have the figures then it may be useful to get your input on what is truly going on.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    And that matters because?

    Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...
  • Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
    And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..

    The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.

    Then in December last year

    Belgium: EU is closed to Scots

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
    Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):

    And those say that set eyes on him,
    When happy, loveable was he,
    And meek and sweet in company,
    But those with him in battle saw
    Another countenance he wore!

  • antifrank said:

    40/1 on John Kerry is an enterprising bet, but not for the faint-hearted. Just because it has the potential to look silly doesn't mean it's a bad bet. Our host has made money out of enough of these for me to respect this.

    One thing to bear in mind is that he would need an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan to be reached early enough for him to throw his hat into the nomination battle.

    The Iowa caucus kicks off the formal process at the start of 2016, but how early in 2015 would Kerry need a deal secured so that it wouldn't look like he was abandoning the process halfway through to have another tilt at the Presidency?
    That's a good point.

    While I accept the point also made downthread that if Hillary doesn't run then there's a vacancy for an established heavyweight with foreign policy credentials, that fits Biden too, to a degree. I disagree however that Kerry would come in disproportionately. On the contrary: if a Middle East peace process (MEPP) was going on in earnest, it would be more difficult for him to retire from that fray to enter a presidential primary race.

    Also, while a MEPP settlement should boost Kerry's chances if concluded early enough (is there really time when no-one's seriously talking at the moment?), how much publicity would he get from it? Unless Obama wanted to promote him as his continuity candidate, the president will be there for all the big dealing towards the end of the process and take the credit himself. It's not like he can do much domestically and he might even finally earn that Nobel Prize he's already won.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    RodCrosby said:

    And that matters because?

    Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...
    Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited February 2014
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!

    My prediction is for a surge in yellow box production.
    Neil

    Yesterday, I found this article from 2007, by Brian Coleman. It made me reach for the mind bleach.

    Though I did like this bit

    About Brian Coleman - Brian Coleman was first elected to the London Assembly in June 2000. Widely outspoken he is best known for his groundbreaking policy of removing traffic calming measures


    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/brian-coleman/2007/06/lady-thatcher-gay-tory
  • TGOHF said:

    murali_s said:

    TGOHF said:

    murali_s said:

    OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1

    The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.

    It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.

    Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?

    Meh - you have cherry picked "January" - how very convenient.

    "In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period."

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/
    Meh - now you've cherry-picked 1997 as a reference point. As you may or may not know, 1998 was a very strong El-Nino year. Why don't you remove that 'outlier' from the time series and check for trends. Yes, the warming trend has been slower in the last 15 years but it's still there!
    Looking at those NOAA maps its a curious spot of ill fortune that the warmer bits are in the middle of the sea an the colder bits are where people live - and presumably there are more weather stations...

    Bad luck for humans eh ?
    Look again.

    There are no gridboxes on the globe that fall into the "record coldest" category.

    There are 86 gridboxes that fall into the "record warmest" category, 28 of these are over land.

    You are seeing what you want to see, rather than what is actually there. Some people might be comforted to know that such cognitive bias is a very common human failing. Or you may find it hard to accept that you are so alike your fellow man.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TGOHF said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"

    Ooh you little tease!

    All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.

    If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!

    Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
    "2014 GE" - now that would be an interesting yellow box !


    Whoops! I must have got carried away counting the billions of Tory votes!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"

    Ooh you little tease!

    All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.

    If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!

    Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
    This is quite concerning. Does George not appreciate that I have risked £50 of my hard earned that he will bring PSBR ex in at a lower level than in the last financial year? He is still ahead but I frankly thought he would be out of sight by now.

    The man has no sense of priorities!

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    RodCrosby said:

    And that matters because?

    Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...
    Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.

    Without ever having heard of tim or SeanT - he must have had Edmund's widget on overdrive!
  • Random said:

    Charles said:

    Mike, you do realise that "50/50" is Israeli for "It's not going to happen but I want the other side to veto it"?

    Right, the Israeli goal since forever has been to make it look like a proper Palestinian state that they don't control is right around the corner, but not quite happening yet. Once they admit that they intend to hang onto the territory forever they have to answer all kinds of awkward questions about how long they're going to keep the apartheid system going, and why they won't give the people who live there the vote.
    The Palestinian Authority has had presidential and parliamentary elections in 1996 and 2005 (the reason why there hasn't been any since is because Hamas and the PLO can't agree on terms to hold an election, not Israeli obstructionism) and local elections in 2005, 2010 and 2012, and of course Arabs in Israel proper have voted in every Knesset election since 1960 or so. That's a heck of a lot of voting for people who are supposedly denied the vote - more in fact than in most of the rest of the Arab middle-east - but then I've long since observed that actual facts are if anything an obstacle to discussing Israel-related issues:-/
    Regardless of who the Palestinians vote for, all the key features of the country, including the borders, are controlled by Israel.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited February 2014

    RodCrosby said:

    And that matters because?

    Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...
    Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.

    Or is a re-tread...
  • Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
    And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..

    The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.

    Then in December last year

    Belgium: EU is closed to Scots

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
    Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):

    And those say that set eyes on him,
    When happy, loveable was he,
    And meek and sweet in company,
    But those with him in battle saw
    Another countenance he wore!

    I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.

    Fascinating era.
  • GeoffM said:

    murali_s said:

    OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1

    The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.

    It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.

    Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?

    As someone who was called an "extreme right winger" on here the other night, I assume I'm included here. I'll take that bet.
    Be careful to specify which temperature dataset you use. On a borderline year they will not all give the same answer to the wager.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Mike, you do realise that "50/50" is Israeli for "It's not going to happen but I want the other side to veto it"?

    Right, the Israeli goal since forever has been to make it look like a proper Palestinian state that they don't control is right around the corner, but not quite happening yet. Once they admit that they intend to hang onto the territory forever they have to answer all kinds of awkward questions about how long they're going to keep the apartheid system going, and why they won't give the people who live there the vote.
    To be fair my contacts in Israel (and they are on the liberal end of the spectrum) do want a solution, if only because they see hanging on for the bitter end as a long-term losing position. The real roadblock is the right of return - solve that and you could get to a overall solution pretty quickly.
  • "I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment... "

    Really, nobody told me and nobody told my accountant either, and I got the usual January reminder from HMRC about the dire penalties I would be subject to if the paperwork wasn't filed by 31st January. If they extended the deadline that meant I didn't leave it to the last minute and I paid earlier then I actually had to. Damn, I hate doing that when it come to money to HMG.

    The deadline was only extended for certain cases....not for everyone,.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    In the Nick v Nige debate, I really hope Nige hammers Nick on Nick's crass claim that three million jobs would be lost by our leaving the EU. He really deserves a damn good slapping down over that. Get Nick on the back foot on that - and all his other scare-mongering and fanciful claims start looking very shaky too.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2014
    Neil said:

    RodCrosby said:

    And that matters because?

    Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...
    Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.

    Without ever having heard of tim or SeanT
    Does the Widget work on archive browsing?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    DavidL said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"

    Ooh you little tease!

    All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.

    If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!

    Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
    This is quite concerning. Does George not appreciate that I have risked £50 of my hard earned that he will bring PSBR ex in at a lower level than in the last financial year? He is still ahead but I frankly thought he would be out of sight by now.

    The man has no sense of priorities!

    Robert Chote will release a year end forecast of PSNB ex between noon and one o'clock.

    His commentary should be an interesting read given the supplementary estimates released in the last couple of weeks although he may delay full comment on what is going on until the budget EFO.

    It is quite clear to me that Osborne is managing public finances on the basis on net cash rather than the ONS headline PSNB figures. With all the shifts in expenditure and receipts going on, the NCR gets reduced by a measly £1 billion.

    Too early yet to see what effect the changes will have on PSNB but I doubt that he will allow it to surge ahead of last year's figure. What he is up to is increasing government spend to match the additional cash coming in rather than using the cash receipts to reduce the deficit.

    Got to keep growth going!

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!

    My prediction is for a surge in yellow box production.
    Neil

    Yesterday, I found this article from 2007, by Brian Coleman. It made me reach for the mind bleach.

    Though I did like this bit

    About Brian Coleman - Brian Coleman was first elected to the London Assembly in June 2000. Widely outspoken he is best known for his groundbreaking policy of removing traffic calming measures


    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/brian-coleman/2007/06/lady-thatcher-gay-tory
    It's not as horrible as the thought of Coleman being in bed with an Arsenal striker.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
    2 of the three brave knights that sought to achieve his request were namesakes of mine. (We will skip over the bit when they managed to get to Spain when they were supposed to be going to Jerusalem)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    murali_s said:

    TGOHF said:

    murali_s said:

    OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1

    The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.

    It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.

    Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?

    Meh - you have cherry picked "January" - how very convenient.

    "In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period."

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/
    Meh - now you've cherry-picked 1997 as a reference point. As you may or may not know, 1998 was a very strong El-Nino year. Why don't you remove that 'outlier' from the time series and check for trends. Yes, the warming trend has been slower in the last 15 years but it's still there!
    Looking at those NOAA maps its a curious spot of ill fortune that the warmer bits are in the middle of the sea an the colder bits are where people live - and presumably there are more weather stations...

    Bad luck for humans eh ?
    Look again.

    There are no gridboxes on the globe that fall into the "record coldest" category.

    There are 86 gridboxes that fall into the "record warmest" category, 28 of these are over land.

    You are seeing what you want to see, rather than what is actually there. Some people might be comforted to know that such cognitive bias is a very common human failing. Or you may find it hard to accept that you are so alike your fellow man.

    I never mentioned "record cold" - if warmists were to stop lying and misrepresenting people you might stop the people losing faith in your industry.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    "I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment... "

    Really, nobody told me and nobody told my accountant either, and I got the usual January reminder from HMRC about the dire penalties I would be subject to if the paperwork wasn't filed by 31st January. If they extended the deadline that meant I didn't leave it to the last minute and I paid earlier then I actually had to. Damn, I hate doing that when it come to money to HMG.

    I think that they extended it only for those who wereusing self-assessment for the first time due to the child benefit claw-back. (Which will be some, but not extensive)
  • SeanT said:

    And while we're talking about global warming, and how we should change our lifestyles and develop gills etc, here is a sobering graph of 44 climate models, and their predictions of global warming, juxtaposed with What Actually Happened.

    http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c017d42dfdbb4970c-pi

    All 44 models were wrong, and over-estimated warming; all of them. And some of them were wildly wrong. A science which gets things 100% wrong 100% of the time is not really a science, is it? It's more like astrology.

    The climate models match the response to the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo very well, so to say that they are 100% wrong is an obvious falsehood, even leaving aside whether the comparison of the trend has been done in an unbiased way.
  • Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
    And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..

    The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.

    Then in December last year

    Belgium: EU is closed to Scots

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
    Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):

    And those say that set eyes on him,
    When happy, loveable was he,
    And meek and sweet in company,
    But those with him in battle saw
    Another countenance he wore!

    I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.

    Fascinating era.
    Best novel I've read on the Crusades is Alfred Duggan's Knight With Armour (though I love all his books); cynical, funny and a real sense of 'Y'know, it might actually have been like that'.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited February 2014
    The man has no sense of priorities!

    Unusually I'm not sure what to make of this analysis of the Budget numbers.

    All I know is that if Osborne doesn't have room for low and middle earner tax reliefs between now and 2015 the tories are finished, and they deserve to be.

    People do not sympathise with mere numbers showing the economy is growing. They need to see the evidence in their pockets.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Neil said:

    RodCrosby said:

    And that matters because?

    Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...
    Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.

    Without ever having heard of tim or SeanT
    Does the Widget work on archive browsing?

    The duck has learned to cluck - but it still waddles.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    While I'm a bit sceptical about the bet, the trip sounds fascinating,and I've noticed the relative absence of extreme rhetoric in the region recently. A peace deal there would be the most important development of the last decade. Looking forward to Mike's article.

    Likewise, on all counts.

    Israel needs a deal because America's power - and interest in the Middle East (and its oil) - and desire to be the world's policeman - is swiftly dwindling. Cf Syria. I'm not convinced a Democrat president would unilaterally bomb Iran even if it was proved to be very close to nukes.

    I'm not convinced ANY future president will ever again put a US army on the ground, in the Middle East, unless Israel is about to be overrun.

    So the American umbrella which has shielded Israel from reality is closing. Israel needs to fix a peace soon, before the odds turn against her. The boycott is also a serious and growing threat.
    Your tactical analysis is entirely accurate. However, the current Israeli government simply isn't rational like that. Likud is in the same paranoid grip that the GOP in the US is. Israel will eventually realise the game is up for endless occupation, but it won't happen for a while.
    TGOHF said:

    murali_s said:

    OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1

    The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.

    It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.

    Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?

    Meh - you have cherry picked "January" - how very convenient.

    "In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period."

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/
    While he was cherry picking months, you're cherry picking years. 1997 was clearly an outlier to the trend, and unless you artificially start the time series from that point, it clearly hasn't been static for so long. There's been a pause, but not since 1997.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    AveryLP said:

    DavidL said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"

    Ooh you little tease!

    All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.

    If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!

    Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
    This is quite concerning. Does George not appreciate that I have risked £50 of my hard earned that he will bring PSBR ex in at a lower level than in the last financial year? He is still ahead but I frankly thought he would be out of sight by now.

    The man has no sense of priorities!

    Robert Chote will release a year end forecast of PSNB ex between noon and one o'clock.

    His commentary should be an interesting read given the supplementary estimates released in the last couple of weeks although he may delay full comment on what is going on until the budget EFO.

    It is quite clear to me that Osborne is managing public finances on the basis on net cash rather than the ONS headline PSNB figures. With all the shifts in expenditure and receipts going on, the NCR gets reduced by a measly £1 billion.

    Too early yet to see what effect the changes will have on PSNB but I doubt that he will allow it to surge ahead of last year's figure. What he is up to is increasing government spend to match the additional cash coming in rather than using the cash receipts to reduce the deficit.

    Got to keep growth going!

    Et tu, Brute!

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited February 2014
    Random said:

    murali_s said:

    TGOHF said:

    murali_s said:

    OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.

    Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1

    The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.

    It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.

    Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?

    Meh - you have cherry picked "January" - how very convenient.

    "In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period."

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/
    Meh - now you've cherry-picked 1997 as a reference point. As you may or may not know, 1998 was a very strong El-Nino year. Why don't you remove that 'outlier' from the time series and check for trends. Yes, the warming trend has been slower in the last 15 years but it's still there!
    Seriously? Your argument is "if you remove everything that doesn't confirm to the trend (let's call it an "outlier" instead...) then the trend is obvious"? That isn't science - that's religion. It is however typical of the global warming cultists - if the facts don't fit the theory, then the facts have to change:-/
    As a general point, removing outliers is a perfectly normal and valid part of statistical analysis, and not necessarily a symptom of an unscientific mindset.

    It does have to be done with some caution depending on the specifics of the particular situation, so discussion of whether it is a valid approach in this instance is more complicated and not something that I want to get into at this time, but your over-reaction is typical of the ...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AveryLP said:

    BenM said:

    AveryLP said:


    Central Government Net Cash Requirement is much better measure of real borrowing

    No it isn't.

    Borrowing is running just £4bn lower than 2012-13.

    Which raises lots of interesting questions about the real underlying strength of this very Tory looking "recovery".
    Now don't be silly, Ben.

    The Treasury remit to the Debt Management Office for Gilt and Treasury Bill Issuance is dependent upon the Central Government Net Cash Requirement (CGNCR). At the time of the Autumn Forecast, Osborne reduced the planned amount of gilt/tbill issuance by £15.5 billion over the final quarter of this fiscal year on the basis of the first nine months CGNCR outturns. In other words, the cash position of the government was so good three quarters of the way into the fiscal year that Osborne was able to cancel 10% of the DMO's net borrowing plans (net of needs to roll over existing borrowing as gilts and bills mature)

    You could argue that the wider measure of Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (PSNCR) is more properly the driver of actual borrowing but due to the interventions into the banking sector the PSNCR has consistently delivered surpluses so can be mostly disregarded for the purposes of calculating the cash needed to be raised in the markets.

    As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!
    You'd better get out another yellow box for this.
    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome
    Public sector borrowing figures were worse than expected in January. http://polho.me/1hAX3l8

    "The public sector finances showed a surplus of £4.7bn, down from £6bn last January, while retail sales dropped 1.5% month-on-month – the largest fall in nearly two years.
  • Why do people endlessly feel the need to speculate about the identity of newer posters? Especially those who have given a discreet nod in their name to earlier identities?

    Posters should be judged on the content of what they write rather than on who they may or may not be.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Neil said:

    RodCrosby said:

    And that matters because?

    Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...
    Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.

    Without ever having heard of tim or SeanT
    Does the Widget work on archive browsing?

    Whatever happened to Bobajob?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
    And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..

    The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.

    Then in December last year

    Belgium: EU is closed to Scots

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
    Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):

    And those say that set eyes on him,
    When happy, loveable was he,
    And meek and sweet in company,
    But those with him in battle saw
    Another countenance he wore!

    I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.

    Fascinating era.
    Best novel I've read on the Crusades is Alfred Duggan's Knight With Armour (though I love all his books); cynical, funny and a real sense of 'Y'know, it might actually have been like that'.

    Very much so. I discovered him in cheap 2/hand paperbacks when I was a student - had had no idea of the spread of the Normans and Crusader realms more widely in places like the Morea till I read books such as Count Bohemond. His other novels are also well worth a look. In fact I must fish out my old copies and reread them ...

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    You'd better get out another yellow box for this.

    If the deficit isn't coming down and there's no room for tax cuts, the tories can wave 2015 goodbye right now.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    Why do people endlessly feel the need to speculate about the identity of newer posters? Especially those who have given a discreet nod in their name to earlier identities?

    Posters should be judged on the content of what they write rather than on who they may or may not be.

    I've clearly less aware than you are, and I'm clearly not nuanced enough to pick up the discreet nods. There's only one poster I'm aware of that is new profile for an older one that I'm aware of, and I picked that up from their arguments/posting style rather than any clues. How many do you know of?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    OT.

    Kerry wont run for president, period.
    Although it wouldn't surprise me that is drafted as VP on a Democratic ticket.
  • AveryLP said:

    AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"

    Ooh you little tease!

    All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.

    If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!

    Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
    Yes, well, no wonder Balls is in such political difficulty - Osborne stole his policy.

    What has the £35bn been spent on? Do you not think it's a bit dishonest, given that Cameron told the voters his number one priority would be cutting the deficit?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    taffys said:

    You'd better get out another yellow box for this.

    If the deficit isn't coming down and there's no room for tax cuts, the tories can wave 2015 goodbye right now.

    Agree - if this extra spending is being brought forward to this year for some reason then fine - if it is at the expense of an 18p rate then GO will have failed.


  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.
  • New SIndy Survation poll for the Mail (can't find it on the Mail website, not yet up on Survation), SNP take:

    The poll found that 53.9% of respondents believe that David Cameron – as leader of the Westminster Government that the No campaign wants to leave in charge - should debate Scotland’s First Minister as part of the referendum campaign. Both the Prime Minister and First Minister are due to hold separate Cabinet meetings in the North East on Monday, giving them an easy opportunity to debate.

    The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.


    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/feb/poll-majority-say-cameron-must-debate-salmond

    On the Lamont point, looks like the single biggest group is agreeing with Lamont that 'Scotland is on pause'....but I guess we'll have to see the tables....
  • No discussions of the Holocaust and no speculating/discussing on new posters being older posters. Are we clear
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Socrates said:

    On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.

    Socrates said:

    On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.

    C02 helps plants grow - it isn't a dangerous poison.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    "no speculating/discussing on new posters being older posters"

    May I ask what the reasoning behind this is? I won't argue, I just wanted to understand the reasoning to the rule.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    DavidL said:

    (We will skip over the bit when they managed to get to Spain when they were supposed to be going to Jerusalem)

    Those bloody early SatNavs, huh?

    "In two leagues, take a right turn at the leper colony..."
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MikeK said:

    OT.

    Kerry wont run for president, period.
    Although it wouldn't surprise me that is drafted as VP on a Democratic ticket.

    The main purpose of the VP is to step in if the President croaks. Not much sense in choosing a 70 year old for that.
  • While I'm a bit sceptical about the bet, the trip sounds fascinating,and I've noticed the relative absence of extreme rhetoric in the region recently. ...

    Good point and one I'd missed. Noticing the absence of something is one of the most under-rated skills in analysis.
  • Rather ironic that the EU has brokered the deal in the Ukraine, given what sparked it all off in the first place.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    TGOHF said:


    Agree - if this extra spending is being brought forward to this year for some reason then fine - if it is at the expense of an 18p rate then GO will have failed.

    Osborne is a most political of Chancellors. I think we can assume that he knows the score...
  • Socrates said:

    "no speculating/discussing on new posters being older posters"

    May I ask what the reasoning behind this is? I won't argue, I just wanted to understand the reasoning to the rule.

    It deters new posters from posting.
  • Carnyx said:

    Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
    And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..

    The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.

    Then in December last year

    Belgium: EU is closed to Scots

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
    Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):

    And those say that set eyes on him,
    When happy, loveable was he,
    And meek and sweet in company,
    But those with him in battle saw
    Another countenance he wore!

    I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.

    Fascinating era.
    Best novel I've read on the Crusades is Alfred Duggan's Knight With Armour (though I love all his books); cynical, funny and a real sense of 'Y'know, it might actually have been like that'.

    Very much so. I discovered him in cheap 2/hand paperbacks when I was a student - had had no idea of the spread of the Normans and Crusader realms more widely in places like the Morea till I read books such as Count Bohemond. His other novels are also well worth a look. In fact I must fish out my old copies and reread them ...

    I fear 2nd hand paperbacks may be the only way to obtain a lot of his books. A few of my favourite authors are out of print, which is slightly depressing.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited February 2014

    Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.

    Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?

    Bruce.
    And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..

    The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.

    Then in December last year

    Belgium: EU is closed to Scots

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
    Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):

    And those say that set eyes on him,
    When happy, loveable was he,
    And meek and sweet in company,
    But those with him in battle saw
    Another countenance he wore!

    I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.

    Fascinating era.
    Best novel I've read on the Crusades is Alfred Duggan's Knight With Armour (though I love all his books); cynical, funny and a real sense of 'Y'know, it might actually have been like that'.

    Thanks, I'll try and locate a copy.

    Edit: Yay it is available for the kindle
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Can we speculate on whether or not "new" posters might be Notts Forest supporters?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    "no speculating/discussing on new posters being older posters"

    May I ask what the reasoning behind this is? I won't argue, I just wanted to understand the reasoning to the rule.

    It deters new posters from posting.
    Thanks.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited February 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.

    Socrates said:

    On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.

    C02 helps plants grow - it isn't a dangerous poison.
    Oxygen helps you breathe. You can still kill people with it.

    PS. It might help your credibility when you debate the issue if you used an O rather than a 0 for the chemical symbol for carbon dioxide.
  • New SIndy Survation poll for the Mail (can't find it on the Mail website, not yet up on Survation), SNP take:

    The poll found that 53.9% of respondents believe that David Cameron – as leader of the Westminster Government that the No campaign wants to leave in charge - should debate Scotland’s First Minister as part of the referendum campaign. Both the Prime Minister and First Minister are due to hold separate Cabinet meetings in the North East on Monday, giving them an easy opportunity to debate.

    The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.


    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/feb/poll-majority-say-cameron-must-debate-salmond

    On the Lamont point, looks like the single biggest group is agreeing with Lamont that 'Scotland is on pause'....but I guess we'll have to see the tables....

    I assume it's the same Survation poll of this week, just the secondary questions?

  • Patrick said:

    OblitusSumMe

    Is the issue not that if we spend on prevention we will anyway fail as cliamte change is outside the ability of any one country (possibly all of mankind) to control. You will have to spend on the adaptation piece anyway - and so pay twice. Is it not better to forget prevenetation and just get busy with adaptation (flood defences, irrigation schemes, etc)?

    Assuming for a second that you accept the IPCC consensus as the scientific basis then my opinion is that there is not sufficiently accurate evidence either way to be certain whether prevention or adaptation will be cheaper or more effective.

    There are too many large uncertainties in the climate science, the economics and the politics.

    You can use a risk-based approach that will account for the first two of these uncertainties and I think that is roughly what Stern did in 2006, when he concluded that prevention would likely be the superior option. Personally, I feel there is less confidence in the economics than the climate science.

    As to the politics, well that mostly comes down to different philosophical outlooks really. Sometimes international cooperation works and sometimes it doesn't, so whether you want to rely upon it depends on how large you estimate the benefits of success will be and how much you trust other countries to play fair, etc.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    In the Nick v Nige debate, I really hope Nige hammers Nick on Nick's crass claim that three million jobs would be lost by our leaving the EU. He really deserves a damn good slapping down over that. Get Nick on the back foot on that - and all his other scare-mongering and fanciful claims start looking very shaky too.

    I'm looking forward to this debate. Has a date been set?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Israel-Palestine, eh?

    Well I suppose it had to be something big to knock the Indyref off the agenda.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Provided someone is not slipping out of a wager, I cannot see a change of name as a problem. I do have a bet outstanding with tim that I might want to collect, but the result will not be in for a while.
    antifrank said:

    Why do people endlessly feel the need to speculate about the identity of newer posters? Especially those who have given a discreet nod in their name to earlier identities?

    Posters should be judged on the content of what they write rather than on who they may or may not be.


  • Thanks, I'll try and locate a copy.

    Edit: Yay it is available for the kindle

    Wow, most of his books are on Kindle. The modern world eh?

    A few are set in the classical era, though no Hannibal afaicr.

  • New SIndy Survation poll for the Mail (can't find it on the Mail website, not yet up on Survation), SNP take:

    The poll found that 53.9% of respondents believe that David Cameron – as leader of the Westminster Government that the No campaign wants to leave in charge - should debate Scotland’s First Minister as part of the referendum campaign. Both the Prime Minister and First Minister are due to hold separate Cabinet meetings in the North East on Monday, giving them an easy opportunity to debate.

    The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.


    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/feb/poll-majority-say-cameron-must-debate-salmond

    On the Lamont point, looks like the single biggest group is agreeing with Lamont that 'Scotland is on pause'....but I guess we'll have to see the tables....

    I assume it's the same Survation poll of this week, just the secondary questions?

    No - all thats published from that poll is on Currency & the EU.....and now I've read all the way to the end:

    The Scottish Government believes an independent Scotland should be a member of the European Union. If Scotland becomes independent, do you think the Scottish Government should hold a referendum on European Union membership?
    Yes: 63
    No: 23

    Scottish Government ministers have described the comments from the President of the European Commission as “preposterous”, saying that as Scotland is already inside the EU there would be no difficulty in an independent Scotland maintaining continued membership.
    Which statement do you most closely agree with?
    EU: 45
    Scot Govt: 34

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,566



    The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.

    That's SNP spin wotthy of a LibDem bar chart. Not only does it assign the middle option (don't know) to "no", it actually contradicts itself in the same sentence ("disagreed"..."neither agreeing nor disagreeing").

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    edited February 2014



    The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.

    That's SNP spin wotthy of a LibDem bar chart. Not only does it assign the middle option (don't know) to "no", it actually contradicts itself in the same sentence ("disagreed"..."neither agreeing nor disagreeing").

    There is a hypothesis to be made that perhaps some accept that 'on pause' is a necessary condition until the referendum is done. If not and the being on pause has entirely negative connotations, I'm sure we'll soon see a surge in support for Johann and her party?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Socrates said:

    MikeK said:

    OT.

    Kerry wont run for president, period.
    Although it wouldn't surprise me that is drafted as VP on a Democratic ticket.

    The main purpose of the VP is to step in if the President croaks. Not much sense in choosing a 70 year old for that.
    A vast amount of presidential politicking is pure nonsense. Look at Biden; nonsense personified.

  • Thanks, I'll try and locate a copy.

    Edit: Yay it is available for the kindle

    Wow, most of his books are on Kindle. The modern world eh?

    A few are set in the classical era, though no Hannibal afaicr.

    You'd be surprised how many books I want to read aren't available as ebooks.

    No Hannibal is not an issue, I've read all that is to be read about it, and nothing will change my mind he is so inept, he could easily be mistaken for a SLAB strategist or Andy Robinson.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    In the Nick v Nige debate, I really hope Nige hammers Nick on Nick's crass claim that three million jobs would be lost by our leaving the EU. He really deserves a damn good slapping down over that. Get Nick on the back foot on that - and all his other scare-mongering and fanciful claims start looking very shaky too.

    I'm looking forward to this debate. Has a date been set?
    1 April?
  • New thread
  • NEW THREAD
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Sean_F said:

    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!

    My prediction is for a surge in yellow box production.
    Neil

    Yesterday, I found this article from 2007, by Brian Coleman. It made me reach for the mind bleach.

    Though I did like this bit

    About Brian Coleman - Brian Coleman was first elected to the London Assembly in June 2000. Widely outspoken he is best known for his groundbreaking policy of removing traffic calming measures


    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/brian-coleman/2007/06/lady-thatcher-gay-tory
    It's not as horrible as the thought of Coleman being in bed with an Arsenal striker.

    Whatever wrongs Brian may have committed, he didn't deserve that.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098


    Thanks, I'll try and locate a copy.

    Edit: Yay it is available for the kindle

    Wow, most of his books are on Kindle. The modern world eh?

    A few are set in the classical era, though no Hannibal afaicr.

    You'd be surprised how many books I want to read aren't available as ebooks.

    No Hannibal is not an issue, I've read all that is to be read about it, and nothing will change my mind he is so inept, he could easily be mistaken for a SLAB strategist or Andy Robinson.
    Who would want to write, let alone read, a novel in which the hero is a serial loser who ends up committing suicide whilst working as a mercenary?
  • Good spot Mike, I've had fifty bob's worth to win £100 with William Hill.
    If nothing else this looks like a great trading prospect.
  • I know I am late to this discussion, but you are absolutely throwing your money with a punt on Kerry. Success in the Middle East will add nothing to his prospects. The only defeated presidential candidate to make a successful comeback was Nixon, and that was after having been Vice President and was connected to the uniquely tumultuous politics of the 1960s.

    Kerry has few real friends within the Democratic establishment, he is seen even by those sympathetic to him as being an insufferable bore, pretentious, and wooden. His enemies have far worse to say about him. He enjoys being freed from the electoral cycle, which is why he has thrown himself so strongly into the Middle East. It has been said that part of why he is pushing the issue so hard is because he believes that the only reason previous Secretaries of State failed was because they were not John Kerry (though in this he shares something in common with Nixon's attitude to Vietnam).

    Kerry is not going to run. The biggest threat to Hilary's nomination is the prospect of a sharp generational dividing line between a throwback to the past, HRC, and a young and fresh Republican with seemingly fresh ideas, such as Rubio. The Dems are not going to trade down a throw back to the past who stands a strong chance of winning (partly on the back of her big strength among women) for a blast from the past who carries the Swiftboated Loser tag.

    If you want good arb opportunities, get your money on Ted Cruz. He is a Tea Party darling and will at some point in the cycle have some of the big mo. I have revised my opinion on Christie: I think he is toast. The bridge scandal did what an effective scandal needs to do: it confirmed in the public mind the nagging concern that has always existed about him that he is a bully. It matters little what the actual outcome of the scandal is from here on it. His USP has been shot to pieces.

    At this point my money is on a Scott Walker/Steve Beshear ticket. Walker provides the conservative backbone, while Beshear (Kentucky governor who has successfully rolled out Obamacare in his state) provides the moderating influence on the ticket. It also provides the GOP with the opportunity to convincingly move on from 'repeal' to 'repair' Obamacare.

    If you want a long shot, put your money on Maggie Hassan for Vice President or the Dem Veep slot.

    You heard it here first.
This discussion has been closed.