No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.
Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.
Thank you the ERG you morons.
Probably neither.
Indeed. Yet another PB overreaction to the latest random number generator from the pollsters.
Commenting and reacting doesn't mean overreaction, particularly when its a regular comment like TSE, you overreact to people's reactions more than they overreact.
Speaking of jaw-dropping stupidity, did we do 1) the present Brexit secretary voting against a motion he had just spoken in favour of; and 2) his predecessor cautioning us at length against hyperbolical use of the term 'catastrophe' in the same interview in which he described taking 'no deal' off the table as a catastrophic step in negotiating a deal?
I thought 2 was Baker not Raab?
Sorry, you're right. Had already forgotten about Raab.
If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.
In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:
For the May Deal ................ 280
Against the May Deal ......... 353
Majority Against the Deal .... 73
That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.
She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.
Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
As many times as people float that idea I never understand what difference it will make. No one claiming principled objection can claim to switch support just because May will go since the deal is the same. The labour potential votes won't care and she might be replaced by someone worse. And whether she says it now or not this is someone who cannot even sack rebellious ministers, she wont last long even if the deal does pass.
Principled opposition is often bound up with pique.
No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.
Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
Evidentially, not!
Fair enough but I think it is a minority view. There are a lot of total incompetents in this government. He is not one of them.
No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.
Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
I find him ludicrous (codpiece rubbish) and pompous.
He may be pompous but the ludicrous charge seems to be based purely on his style of delivery, which itself is ludicrous. Does he have substance is the question. We know that he valued his professional integrity over his political integrity since his unchanged view gave cover for mv2 to be crushed rather than merely defeated.
I dont think we've seen much else to be sure, but the charge of his being ludicrous seems as unfounded as thinking he's incredible.
Like Survation this to some extent reflects Labour recovery from the TIG week. But the Tory decline is striking and frankly seems overdue in the light of recent events.
Except it's a decline in what was an implausible lead to still an implausible lead.
1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising. 2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures. 3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she? 4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor. 5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack. 6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive. 7. Cory Who?
Can I just buff my nails and say that I mentioned Peter Buttigeig first - at least on here.
But can you pronounce his name ?
I cannot.
36% is pretty much in line with Yougov's figure from a couple of days ago, which also showed similar Conservative support for the deal.
With better political salesmanship and statecraft, you could easily see public opinion for the deal reaching well in the mid-40s or higher.
Unfortunately, Mrs. May doesn't do that.
It is actually a pretty good deal judged from the point of view of how good it is for the UK. It is also very easy to portray it as a 'victory' if you like that kind of thing. The EU have made some pretty major concessions to the UK.
But its moment has passed.
You can't go to the cliff edge and then sell a compromise. We either remain or leave with no deal now.
Without overwhelming public support for the deal at the start it looked unlikely unhappy mps could be persuaded to back it, when they believe they have other options.
No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.
Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
Without overwhelming public support for the deal at the start it looked unlikely unhappy mps could be persuaded to back it, when they believe they have other options.
Nothing has changed.
In a fortnight we'll have left the EU without a deal.
If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.
In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:
For the May Deal ................ 280
Against the May Deal ......... 353
Majority Against the Deal .... 73
That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.
She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.
Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
As many times as people float that idea I never understand what difference it will make. No one claiming principled objection can claim to switch support just because May will go since the deal is the same. The labour potential votes won't care and she might be replaced by someone worse. And whether she says it now or not this is someone who cannot even sack rebellious ministers, she wont last long even if the deal does pass.
The comfort it gives is to know that the entire negotiating process of the trade arrangements with the EU will be under the auspices of a new team. If May stays to have even an initial role in these, the risk is that she makes concessions that completely bugger them up for her successor.
If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.
In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:
For the May Deal ................ 280
Against the May Deal ......... 353
Majority Against the Deal .... 73
That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.
She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.
Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
As many times as people float that idea I never understand what difference it will make. No one claiming principled objection can claim to switch support just because May will go since the deal is the same. The labour potential votes won't care and she might be replaced by someone worse. And whether she says it now or not this is someone who cannot even sack rebellious ministers, she wont last long even if the deal does pass.
The comfort it gives is to know that the entire negotiating process of the trade arrangements with the EU will be under the auspices of a new team. If May stays to have even an initial role in these, the risk is that she makes concessions that completely bugger them up for her successor.
It doesn't make the deal better and how many dont already believe she will go for the next phase? It changes nothing.
If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.
In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:
For the May Deal ................ 280
Against the May Deal ......... 353
Majority Against the Deal .... 73
That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be a Conservative 3-line Whip where anyone defying it is expelled from the party. Enough dicking around. Brexit failing can then get laid at the door of the Labour Party.
She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Let's see how much these ERG hold-outs feel about losing their jobs when they can no longer stand as Tories in the upcoming general election.
Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
If Boris loses the Tory whip, can he stand as a candidate for leader?
No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.
Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
I find him ludicrous (codpiece rubbish) and pompous.
He may be pompous but the ludicrous charge seems to be based purely on his style of delivery, which itself is ludicrous. Does he have substance is the question. We know that he valued his professional integrity over his political integrity since his unchanged view gave cover for mv2 to be crushed rather than merely defeated.
I dont think we've seen much else to be sure, but the charge of his being ludicrous seems as unfounded as thinking he's incredible.
We only know he values his integrity if we also know that he didn't just do a poor bit of drafting late at night under pressure.
If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.
In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:
For the May Deal ................ 280
Against the May Deal ......... 353
Majority Against the Deal .... 73
That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be
Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
Who decides? Is it the PM or the Chief Whip? If the Chief Whip won't decide, can she just replace him with someone who agrees with her?
If the ERG lose the whip, do they also lose their votes in any leadership election? Does this favour Gove and other lotalists?
Lots of questions.
The main leadership question I have is this. Imagine you’re a self-obsessed politician who has to date identified taking a hard line on Brexit as your best chance of a route to the top job. We might call him Dominic but let’s call him Boris for the purpose of the question.
Things are coming to the crunch and many of your colleagues who to date you had thought reliably boneheaded are showing signs of thinking. Your lifeboat is an iceberg and it’s melting. What does Boris do? Does he jump off now and face derision for his scheming? Or does he stay on, risking being part of an irrelevant group of a handful of MPs on the one hand or, if he successfully blocks the deal, irrevocably alienating the group of MPs he needs to have supporting him on the other?
Boris looks skewered to me either way.
He probably has to jump off, but portray it as statesmanship.
It’s a shame that he said that this deal was worse than remaining then.
Without overwhelming public support for the deal at the start it looked unlikely unhappy mps could be persuaded to back it, when they believe they have other options.
Nothing has changed.
In a fortnight we'll have left the EU without a deal.
Then something will change. But until then everyone believes compromise is weakness. If it is a principled no I can reflect it's the ones who ask for impossible things to appear more reasonable that piss me off.
Without overwhelming public support for the deal at the start it looked unlikely unhappy mps could be persuaded to back it, when they believe they have other options.
Nothing has changed.
In a fortnight we'll have left the EU without a deal.
Which will change quite a lot. Including ending the argument that the referendum has been ignored. Not sure the leave side have any other arguments....
I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
It's part of the act. But Cox is stupid in the way that highly intelligent people can be. He created a completely unnecessary legal hole for himself and expected the EU to abandon all their red lines to get him out of it.
Really didn't see it that way. There is a real issue here. We want to leave the EU, and presumably the SM, but we want an open border for NI. The backstop is a work around of a sort but what happens at the end of the transitional period? How do these 2 irreconcilable positions resolve themselves? The EU answer is that if there is to be an open border NI must effectively remain in the SM/EU structure. Our position is....well, I am not really sure, something to do with a virtual border and technology. The EU response is we will look at that but we need a guarantee.
So when Cox is asked if their guarantee means that we/NI can be trapped the answer is plainly yes. We have the option of a sovereign nation of walking away but we respect our legal obligations. We might be able to rely on the Vienna Convention but that really requires something material to change or bad faith. We have beefed up the commitment to work on alternatives. I think that is the best that he or we could do.
His position as a lawyer was familiar to me. Can you remove all risk or give a guarantee? No. The client has to make an informed decision based on their assessment of that risk. That is your job.
We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.
Thank you the ERG you morons.
Probably neither.
Indeed. Yet another PB overreaction to the latest random number generator from the pollsters.
Commenting and reacting doesn't mean overreaction, particularly when its a regular comment like TSE, you overreact to people's reactions more than they overreact.
Read his post back then come back to me!
I did and explained why thats not an overreaction. Remember he's said it many times in response to many things and so not an overreaction to a poll and get back to me.
If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.
In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:
For the May Deal ................ 280
Against the May Deal ......... 353
Majority Against the Deal .... 73
That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be
Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
Who decides? Is it the PM or the Chief Whip? If the Chief Whip won't decide, can she just replace him with someone who agrees with her?
If the ERG lose the whip, do they also lose their votes in any leadership election? Does this favour Gove and other lotalists?
Lots of questions.
The main leadership question I have is this. Imagine you’re a self-obsessed politician who has to date identified taking a hard line on Brexit as your best chance of a route to the top job. We might call him Dominic but let’s call him Boris for the purpose of the question.
Things are coming to the crunch and many of your colleagues who to date you had thought reliably boneheaded are showing signs of thinking. Your lifeboat is an iceberg and it’s melting. What does Boris do? Does he jump off now and face derision for his scheming? Or does he stay on, risking being part of an irrelevant group of a handful of MPs on the one hand or, if he successfully blocks the deal, irrevocably alienating the group of MPs he needs to have supporting him on the other?
Boris looks skewered to me either way.
He probably has to jump off, but portray it as statesmanship.
It’s a shame that he said that this deal was worse than remaining then.
No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
I doubt she can. There too many inside the tent pissing in.
All the cabinet support her deal. Some have leadership ambitions. I think they would welcome ERG members being removed from the field, or at least being motivated to vote for her deal with the threat of being removed.
I think a Cabinet resolved to expel any who break a 3-line whip on MV3 would make it the Party taking the stand rather than May.
Frankly, all these ERG members owe their place in the HoC to being members of the Conservative Party first and foremost. I suspect when it comes down to it, those who want to go out on a martyr's pyre strapped to the ERG stake are very, very few in number.
I am not sure even this would be enough unless Cox can work some magic on the DUP but it would be a start and an important start. If the Tories are to have any aspirations of forming a government (this one having collapsed) they need to stop the self indulgence and restore party discipline. May can't do it, she is a completely busted flush, but the Cabinet as a whole can.
The ludicrous Cox could try shouting even louder. It can sometimes work with bigoted NI loyalists.
I think that you are the only one who finds him ludicrous.
I find him ludicrous (codpiece rubbish) and pompous.
He may be pompous but the ludicrous charge seems to be based ave cover for mv2 to be crushed rather than merely defeated.
I dont think we've seen much else to be sure, but the charge of his being ludicrous seems as unfounded as thinking he's incredible.
We only know he values his integrity if we also know that he didn't just do a poor bit of drafting late at night under pressure.
No we still know since even if he was wrong he still chose the harder option which messed things up politically rather than just say yes and fudge something out. If he drafted poorly his competence would be the issue.
Regarding Cox, he appears to be a decent lawyer of considerable integrity, but only a middling politician. And his 1950s stick is a little too ingrained to appeal to most.
He is blessed with a fantastic voice, but I don’t think has worked out how to use it to best effect outside the circle of his admirers.
Regarding Cox, he appears to be a decent lawyer of considerable integrity, but only a middling politician. And his 1950s stick is a little too ingrained to appeal to most.
He is blessed with a fantastic voice, but I don’t think has worked out how to use it to best effect outside the circle of his admirers.
From Hugo Rifkind, this week...
Geoffrey Cox Forsooth, but also verily, I am calling the PM a bit later, even from Devon. And rejoice, for on the morrow I intend to deliver a legal verdict on the backstop which shall reassure the populace. “Oh thanks God,” croaks the PM, “and best of all, it will be trading on every ounce of the legal credibility that currently allows you to earn up to half a million pounds a year as a barrister!”
“Oh God, will it?” I say, suddenly panicked.
This is also choice
Andrea Jenkyns I don’t understand why we don’t just leave. China doesn’t need to be in the EU. So why don’t we just rely on having the largest population in the world? Also, taps. Mystery. How does the water get in?
Like Survation this to some extent reflects Labour recovery from the TIG week. But the Tory decline is striking and frankly seems overdue in the light of recent events.
Though, Yougov show no boost for Labour, but rather, a Con to UKIP and Brexit swing.
Wouldn't be too sure that many of them will make it to the end either, especially without Nige to gee them up, promising to buy them a pint when they finally get to The Westminster Arms.
Wouldn't be too sure that many of them will make it to the end either, especially without Nige to gee them up, promising to buy them a pint when they finally get to The Westminster Arms.
Just out of curiosity - how many miles will the committed actually walk? I am a reasonably fit guy in his fifties and I think I could do 20 miles without too much difficulty. I don't think I'd fancy doing another 20 the next day. I am pretty sure I would not be in much shape to do anything after a week of it.
Wouldn't be too sure that many of them will make it to the end either, especially without Nige to gee them up, promising to buy them a pint when they finally get to The Westminster Arms.
Just out of curiosity - how many miles will the committed actually walk? I am a reasonably fit guy in his fifties and I think I could do 20 miles without too much difficulty. I don't think I'd fancy doing another 20 the next day. I am pretty sure I would not be in much shape to do anything after a week of it.
Put it this way: The Westminster Arms is a small pub, but I think there'll be space enough at the bar to serve all the completers.
Wouldn't be too sure that many of them will make it to the end either, especially without Nige to gee them up, promising to buy them a pint when they finally get to The Westminster Arms.
Just out of curiosity - how many miles will the committed actually walk? I am a reasonably fit guy in his fifties and I think I could do 20 miles without too much difficulty. I don't think I'd fancy doing another 20 the next day. I am pretty sure I would not be in much shape to do anything after a week of it.
The full walk is a decent physical challenge for sure.
Wouldn't be too sure that many of them will make it to the end either, especially without Nige to gee them up, promising to buy them a pint when they finally get to The Westminster Arms.
Just out of curiosity - how many miles will the committed actually walk? I am a reasonably fit guy in his fifties and I think I could do 20 miles without too much difficulty. I don't think I'd fancy doing another 20 the next day. I am pretty sure I would not be in much shape to do anything after a week of it.
You really wouldn't want to walk 2 miles, let alone 20, along many of the roads on the route.
Just been on the leave means leave website and it looks like they are envisaging different people being on different stages.
Just as well from a health point of view - much as I disagree with leavers I don't actually want to kill them off. But it does make the whole thing a bit pointless.
It doesn't make the deal better and how many dont already believe she will go for the next phase? It changes nothing.
Starting point: I'm not an ERG-er. I hate May's Shit Deal. But I'm a pragmatist. Nothing better is going to come along. No Deal preparation was blocked. Let those responsible have their careers rot in hell for that, but the narrative is set; everything about No Deal is toxic. We would probably muddle through without most of the horrors ascribed, but any little thing that goes wrong will be blown out of all proportion. "OMG!!! We left the EU and now I CAN'T BUY GOOSEBERRIES IN APRIL!!!" That sort of horror. Or else it really could be truly horrible - and we lose 100,000s of thousands of top quality jobs.
If you are an ERG MP though, you might continue your crusade, determined to hold out until the end. That comes with a very real risk of No Brexit rather than No Deal. Realisitically, there will never be another opportunity to Leave. Sure, you could be a standard-bearer for the Really Pissed Off. Point out that every British ill is down to us not having Brexited. In other words, become Nigel Farage. But some - many - will blame YOU for those ills still visiting us. Because unlike Farage, who was not an MP, you could have stopped them. If only you hadn't been such a purist twat. The rest of your life is a long time to have to watch generations of Juncker's successors, lording it over us. Thinking "If only....."
It seems unfathomable that when you have worked yourself into a lather for decades over the ills of the EU, you are going to give up the chance to be finally parted from it. But we AREN'T parted from it, they will cry. We are a vassal of Europe. Well, up to a point. You think if this was Frexit, the French would honour Macron's Shit Deal until the end of time? Of course not.
Just bloody well swallow your wretched pride, sign up to May's Deal, then oust May at the earliest. Work to elect somebody who commits to TRY to undertake the trade agreement, but will prepare for An Alternative if the EU deal proves to come with a price-tag that's too high. Yes, you are still going to be fighting the establishment every step of the way. Better that than being wound ever tighter into Brussel's clutches. That will be far, far worse.
And a reminder. You stood as Conservative MPs. Not ERG MPs. Those who voted for you did so for many reasons, but for many it was because you had signed up to Leave the EU. You can't claim some great moral authority to implement the purest Brexit, when to do so would require commiting a fraud upon your voters.
It doesn't make the deal better and how many dont already believe she will go for the next phase? It changes nothing.
Starting point: I'm not an ERG-er. I hate May's Shit Deal. But I'm a pragmatist. Nothing better is going to come along. No Deal preparation was blocked. Let those responsible have their careers rot in hell for that, but the narrative is set; everything about No Deal is toxic. We would probably muddle through without most of the horrors ascribed, but any little thing that goes wrong will be blown out of all proportion. "OMG!!! We left the EU and now I CAN'T BUY GOOSEBERRIES IN APRIL!!!" That sort of horror. Or else it really could be truly horrible - and we lose 100,000s of thousands of top quality jobs.
If you are an ERG MP though, you might continue your crusade, determined to hold out until the end. That comes with a very real risk of No Brexit rather than No Deal. Realisitically, there will never be another opportunity to Leave. Sure, you could be a standard-bearer for the Really Pissed Off. Point out that every British ill is down to us not having Brexited. In other words, become Nigel Farage. But some - many - will blame YOU for those ills still visiting us. Because unlike Farage, who was not an MP, you could have stopped them. If only you hadn't been such a purist twat. The rest of your life is a long time to have to watch generations of Juncker's successors, lording it over us. Thinking "If only....."
It seems unfathomable that when you have worked yourself into a lather for decades over the ills of the EU, you are going to give up the chance to be finally parted from it. But we AREN'T parted from it, they will cry. We are a vassal of Europe. Well, up to a point. You think if this was Frexit, the French would honour Macron's Shit Deal until the end of time? Of course not.
Just bloody well swallow your wretched pride, sign up to May's Deal, then oust May at the earliest. Work to elect somebody who commits to TRY to undertake the trade agreement, but will prepare for An Alternative if the EU deal proves to come with a price-tag that's too high. Yes, you are still going to be fighting the establishment every step of the way. Better that than being wound ever tighter into Brussel's clutches. That will be far, far worse.
And a reminder. You stood as Conservative MPs. Not ERG MPs. Those who voted for you did so for many reasons, but for many it was because you had signed up to Leave the EU. You can't claim some great moral authority to implement the purest Brexit, when to do so would require commiting a fraud upon your voters.
All very rational but you're someone who interacts with the real world.
Now imagine you spend your time instead either in the Westminster bars or among the twatter ranters.
If ever there was justification for a prize competition, it is surely on the outcome of the crucial third 'Meaningful Vote' in the HoC, always assuming that such a vote actually takes place, Mr Squeaker notwithstanding.
In the absence of any prize, we should have a competition anyway and in an attempt to start the ball rolling, I'm going as follows:
For the May Deal ................ 280
Against the May Deal ......... 353
Majority Against the Deal .... 73
That feels about right to me. I'd expect about 40 more votes or so for it from the ERG crew by next week, assuming no drifters the other way, but a hardcore still not voting for it.
If May has someohow managed to get the DUP on board by the time of MV3, then frankly, it has to be
Of course, she could (should) sweeten the pill by announcing that once the WA is passed, she will be standing down.
Surely its only the local party that can deselect a sitting MP?
No one can stand who has lost the Conservative whip.
After this week’s events, how does Theresa May get the authority to remove the whip from anyone breaking it?
Who decides? Is it the PM or the Chief Whip? If the Chief Whip won't decide, can she just replace him with someone who agrees with her?
If the ERG lose the whip, do they also lose their votes in any leadership election? Does this favour Gove and other lotalists?
Lots of questions.
The main leadership question I have is this. Imagine you’re a self-obsessed politician who has to date identified taking a hard line on Brexit as your best chance of a route to the top job. We might call him Dominic but let’s call him Boris for the purpose of the question.
Things are coming to the crunch and ma
Boris looks skewered to me either way.
He probably has to jump off, but portray it as statesmanship.
It’s a shame that he said that this deal was worse than remaining then.
"This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando Calrissian, 1980.
Comments
Read his post back then come back to me!
I dont think we've seen much else to be sure, but the charge of his being ludicrous seems as unfounded as thinking he's incredible.
But its moment has passed.
You can't go to the cliff edge and then sell a compromise. We either remain or leave with no deal now.
Nothing has changed.
I’m not even sure it’s a minority view.
And, even if it is, so what?
FEWER.
So when Cox is asked if their guarantee means that we/NI can be trapped the answer is plainly yes. We have the option of a sovereign nation of walking away but we respect our legal obligations. We might be able to rely on the Vienna Convention but that really requires something material to change or bad faith. We have beefed up the commitment to work on alternatives. I think that is the best that he or we could do.
His position as a lawyer was familiar to me. Can you remove all risk or give a guarantee? No. The client has to make an informed decision based on their assessment of that risk. That is your job.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1106851958894354432
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1106824871563194368
And his 1950s stick is a little too ingrained to appeal to most.
He is blessed with a fantastic voice, but I don’t think has worked out how to use it to best effect outside the circle of his admirers.
Geoffrey Cox
Forsooth, but also verily, I am calling the PM a bit later, even from Devon. And rejoice, for on the morrow I intend to deliver a legal verdict on the backstop which shall reassure the populace. “Oh thanks God,” croaks the PM, “and best of all, it will be trading on every ounce of the legal credibility that currently allows you to earn up to half a million pounds a year as a barrister!”
“Oh God, will it?” I say, suddenly panicked.
This is also choice
Andrea Jenkyns
I don’t understand why we don’t just leave. China doesn’t need to be in the EU. So why don’t we just rely on having the largest population in the world? Also, taps. Mystery. How does the water get in?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/our-week-everybody-8cp0j3brr
He has left his local party, won't contest the next election, but seeks to remain a Conservative MP.
https://twitter.com/lisachron/status/1106848271509716993
Just as well from a health point of view - much as I disagree with leavers I don't actually want to kill them off. But it does make the whole thing a bit pointless.
If you are an ERG MP though, you might continue your crusade, determined to hold out until the end. That comes with a very real risk of No Brexit rather than No Deal. Realisitically, there will never be another opportunity to Leave. Sure, you could be a standard-bearer for the Really Pissed Off. Point out that every British ill is down to us not having Brexited. In other words, become Nigel Farage. But some - many - will blame YOU for those ills still visiting us. Because unlike Farage, who was not an MP, you could have stopped them. If only you hadn't been such a purist twat. The rest of your life is a long time to have to watch generations of Juncker's successors, lording it over us. Thinking "If only....."
It seems unfathomable that when you have worked yourself into a lather for decades over the ills of the EU, you are going to give up the chance to be finally parted from it. But we AREN'T parted from it, they will cry. We are a vassal of Europe. Well, up to a point. You think if this was Frexit, the French would honour Macron's Shit Deal until the end of time? Of course not.
Just bloody well swallow your wretched pride, sign up to May's Deal, then oust May at the earliest. Work to elect somebody who commits to TRY to undertake the trade agreement, but will prepare for An Alternative if the EU deal proves to come with a price-tag that's too high. Yes, you are still going to be fighting the establishment every step of the way. Better that than being wound ever tighter into Brussel's clutches. That will be far, far worse.
And a reminder. You stood as Conservative MPs. Not ERG MPs. Those who voted for you did so for many reasons, but for many it was because you had signed up to Leave the EU. You can't claim some great moral authority to implement the purest Brexit, when to do so would require commiting a fraud upon your voters.
Now imagine you spend your time instead either in the Westminster bars or among the twatter ranters.