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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the top 2 in Newport West looking pretty certain the inte
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the top 2 in Newport West looking pretty certain the interesting bets are the LAB share and which party comes third
One of the features of this Parliament has been the relative absence of by-elections. In the 21 months since the general election they have been just two and now a third one is due to take place on April 4th in Newport West to fill the vacancy created by the death of Paul Flynn.
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More practically, comments like Sandbach’s, which are not unreasonable, just gives hardliners even more reason not to switch - it won’t pass even then if she switches as well.
https://medium.com/@cerifowler/how-might-the-independent-group-fare-in-a-general-election-1dc61a48b1f
Soubry, Chukka and Wollaston could keep seats possibly if there is a LD/TIG Alliance.
Only Allen if no alliance.
Just seen the awful news.
Thoughts with you and your wife and wider family
I'm on at 270.
Still available at 80.
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1104922963386630144
https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1105582421066559488
https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1105912069872848898
p.s. condolences to Big G & family.
Now Tory MPs are being abused for voting for Mays deal. Apparently now only a no deal is a real Brexit.
How far we’ve come from the Vote Leave promises. If I can be blunt I can cope with Leavers who want to leave the EU in an orderly way with a deal .
The no deal fantasists who aren’t happy enough with Brexit but now want to subject Remainers to the worst form of Brexit are really taking the piss !
Wollaston and Allen are the TIGgers best shots at holding on.
Insanely articulate.
I like him a lot.
Once again, thank you to the PB community who have been so kind today
Good night folks
1. Sanders has had a pretty good start. Lots of coverage. Lots of fund raising.
2. Kamala Harris is facing some pretty tough questions, particularly on the death penalty, and in regards to her time as California AG. Still, she's the only non-old white man in double figures.
3. Kristen Gillibrand has really sunk without a trace, hasn't she?
4. Beto's launch has really been pretty poor.
5. Hickenlooper had a really big money raise post launch - more than $1m in the first 24 hours. That puts him in third place in the 24 hour money raise, behind Harris and Sanders, and well ahead of the pack.
6. Mayor Pete is the only candidate to get the hair on the back of my neck standing up. He's incredibly impressive.
7. Cory Who?
I think we may just be in for a surprise. If he makes the debates, things could get interesting.
On Hickenlooper - is he actually running?
Is he getting any attention other than that...
...Not yet
That’s just nonsense. IS have been using social media for terror attacks for years.
I don’t think the whole entitled vibe is going to work for him this cycle, whereas a successful Senate run would have won him the everlasting gratitude of the Democrats.
The DM are being misleading in the presentation of the other questions because the charts show Conservative voters only.
Perhaps the 'we need a GE' Tories will pipe down a bit with a few more Lab leads in play.
Still only 36% of all voters thinking MPs should back the deal, and referendum more popular than it.
Not surprised her quitting is not thought to help the deal - people have been spinning for that one long enough. I cannot.
O'Rourke however insists he made mistakes in his past and is moving forward
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/beto-orourke-wrote-murder-fantasy-children-was-part-of-famed-hacking-group-report
We’re going to get the double whammy of No Deal and then a Corbyn Premiership.
Thank you the ERG you morons.
Survation of course excludes TIG and most other polls have the Tories ahead but even Survation has Labour on 2017 levels still, they are only ahead mainly thanks to Tory defections to UKIP and the LDs which might be remedied under a new leader
All to play for.
Say 15 Labour plus the DUP reduces Mays loss to below a hundred . There is a domino effect because as the ERG reduce that starts to remove the cover from the more pro EU group .
It’s quite possible there will be one last stand on MV3 with May losing by under 50 votes .
Then she scrapes through by MV4 . The big problem is there won’t be a stable majority , any win will be small .
How does that survive the WAIB ?
I really don’t think we’ve seen the last of the drama even if her deal scrapes through . Everything could still unravel .
Adam Boulton"
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-politics-is-in-meltdown-and-the-art-of-compromise-no-longer-applies-11666763
2. Everyone keeps talking about labour MPs coming over the hill like cavalry. It was 3 in MV2. Of those possibles, surely prospect of softer brexit suits them just fine.
3. Lest we overlook the non ERG rebels, second ref or softer brexit Tories, why should they feel under any pressure to surrender, if anything they may slip from supporting May’s deal to opposing it.
4. The ERG. If they oppose May’s Chequers deal with EU on principle, then let’s have some respect for them. The difference between good brexit and hideous vassalage is as much personal value set than it is science. Bully them to get what you want, but if you think good comes once Bullying wins over principle then you are deluded, a victory in this instance will leave a burning grievance hung around the neck of the Conservative Party long after the lady is gone. Is that what you really want?
It is just one poll in a range of polls and shouldn't be taken as the holy grail, nice to see a Labour lead though.
Among 18 high-income countries -- including Spain, Sweden, Japan, Australia, the UK and the United States -- most countries saw declines in life expectancy between 2014 and 2015, according to the study, published Wednesday in the British Medical Journal.
Australia, Japan, Denmark and Norway were the only countries in the study that showed an increase in life expectancy across all years for both men and women.
The drop in the remaining 14 countries was "notable both for the number of countries and for the magnitude of the declines," the authors wrote."
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/16/health/life-expectancy-uk-us-drop-study-intl/index.html
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/4/18246381/democrats-clinton-sanders-left-brad-delong
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Yet DeLong believes that the time of people like him running the Democratic Party has passed. “The baton rightly passes to our colleagues on our left,” DeLong wrote. “We are still here, but it is not our time to lead.”
......
It’s much harder to believe in those things now. That’s one part of it. The world appears to be more like what lefties thought it was than what I thought it was for the last 10 or 15 years.
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Not consecutive bits above.
Not sure if Sanders can do it this year, though I am hopeful but I think the Democrat party will shift more to its left wing and away from its centrist wing in terms of leadership. His proposal to be lead from the left but part of the discussion is acceptable to any reasonable in party opponent. Although most people (as the article also mentions) aren't so quick to accept the idea a different group should take the lead.
The Tories face the problem of trying to thrust Brexit onto a population that increasingly doesn't want it.
What is it with centrists and national service? First Macron, then TIG and now Buttigieg.
He said anyone who walks into the Oval Office has to recognize how much they do not know. And he said he believes his age can be an advantage.
"It allows me to communicate to the country a vision of what the country is going to look like in 2054 — that's the year I'll get to the age of the current president," Buttigieg said.
"When you're personally preparing for what the world is going to look like, then it gives you a different sense of urgency."
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2019/03/10/pete-buttigieg-sxsw-top-5-takeaways-cnn-town-hall/3125486002/?utm_source=oembed&utm_medium=news&utm_campaign=storylines
“Nobody has said anything new, interesting or remotely helpful in these debates for about two years.”
And (for people who insist on posting links to Twitter written by somebody who’s not a household name in their own household, but is suddenly and incomprehensible, deemed imbued with great insight):
“People who write Twitter threads that start: “This is where I think we are.” I know where you are. Disappearing up your own backstop.”
The whole column is worth reading.