politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whilst the Tories plough on totally divided over Brexit LAB ha
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whilst the Tories plough on totally divided over Brexit LAB has its worse polling month since GE2017
If ever there was a period when LAB should be making headways in the polls then surely it has to be at the moment well that always continue to be divided on brexit.
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Just after making 2 comments on the PT. Baa.
"Halt to roundtables after details on lack of deals leaked by infuriated participants"
https://www.ft.com/content/25b1eb3e-3e85-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44
"YBarddCwsc said:
I very much doubt that.
It is still the case that it is easier to wait for Corby to lose control of the party (as he will, because the pendulum always swings back) than to set up a completely new party.
I always wondered what I would have done if I had been born and lived in East Germany (or another Soviet satellite) in the 1970s. Would I have tried to be a hero and cross the Wall?
The correct thing to do (we can now see) is to have waited. In 1989, the GDR collapsed.
The TIGgers have scaled the Wall. Good luck to them, but most likely they will be shot down by the border guards or bleed to death in the barbed wire.
The best thing for Labour moderates to do is wait. The Wall will come down anyhow.
If there is a GE this year (not unlikely), they may not have to wait too long."
To take your analogy: Corbyn's Labour is East Germany - what is the USSR that is going to collapse to make his domino fall too? There is none.
A nearer parallel might be the Khmer Rouge's Cambodia. A truly bat-shit crazy restarting of the clock to year zero. Nothing that went before had any merit. Party faithful horribly purged for not being quite faithful enough, implemented by thuggish and intensely stupid enforcers. Eventually pushed out of power by factionalism and death - with a helping hand from outside forces....
Suddenly we have had a leaflet from the local Tories, for the first time since the last elections, announcing 'two independently minded conservatives'!
The reason why Corby's position was strengthened was because he was electorally more successful than anyone ever imagined (albeit in a very odd election against a very poor opponent). Corby deserves credit for that.
But another GE defeat would see Corby in his allotment.
For sure, his successor is not going to be another Blair (thank God), but it will be someone like Thornberry, or ..... even Watson.
Corby will meet a General Election soon (possibly very soon).
He will either win (in which case Watson will momentarily shut up & take a Ministerial position) or he will lose (in which case Watson will be either king or kingmaker). Even if Corby wins an election and becomes PM, he is old and will move on. There are plenty of opportunities in the very near future for Watson to wheel and deal.
Watson is interested in power. There is no advantage for Watson in Tigger-ing.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1102856750405955584
It's quite amusing, actually, in a somewhat horrific way.
If the far left antisemites are going to be in control for that long it seems logical to try another method. Simply waiting isn't the answer.
(Also, I don't think the far-left antisemites are in control).
Will it? No idea.
But sweet revenge if we have any Liberals who were there in 1920.
Tories are really complacent on how popular Jezza's policies are imho. Yes, OGH is right to focus on leadership numbers, but there's a risk that he gets in despite that because of the economic stuff.
May can't lead them into another GE. She has a total tin ear for retail politics.
Those who were alive when the Soviet Union was formed were almost all dead by the time it collapsed. Similarly in other nations that take Corbyns politics seriously like North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba.
While the Liberals have gone nearly a century now since they last formed a government. How Kong are they going to have to wait for before they take control again?
I get that most Tories don't give a toss about the poor and needy. But bringing the police and with it law and order to it's knees, bringing out armed forces and veterans to a state of ineffectiveness, saying not only Fuck Business but continuing to impose unnecessary stress on business - at which point do Tories say enough?
Yes, I hate Corbyn. But I hate the Tories more. Some of you criticise me for that - but isn't the same true in reverse? This is the opportunity for the TIGgers - take the good technocrat elements of both parties, discard the ideology, be seen as competent. At at time when the two big parties are in competition to be as incompetent as possible, they do have a chance
So can I claim the 'sweet revenge'? If of course, the event happens!
Just been out for a bit. Feeling distinctly wintry.
Both main parties have incompetent leadership.
https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1102742877342482433
Who dunnit?
The only way to avoid a Tory meltdown is a free vote .
Although access to activities is no doubt a help, it is a much deeper problem than that.
Mr. Jessop, aye. Lack of youth clubs is no excuse for delinquency or crime. Still remember the shameful Sky interview with three masked thieves the night after they'd looted during the 2011 London 'riots', blaming cuts for their criminality.
They might be part of a broader solutioin, but they're far from the whole answer.
She said the last time she went back was 18 years ago for a funeral. She said there were three old biddies talking together and she overheard one of them say "What does she think she's come as?"
I was reminded of that great line yesterday when I saw the Shadow Police Minister standing at the dispatch box.
This is true, although it doesn't take much amendment for it to equally validly say " there’s little doubt that Corbyn continues to have [no more] backing from his MPs [than] you’d expect an opposition leader [6-8 points behind in the polls at a time when the government is deeply split on its flagship policy] to enjoy."
In the instant gratification high energy world of instant communications and electronic wizardry the issue is to find the activities that have the pazazz to attract and retain the interest of teens.
It isn't all about facilities and staff, it is about satisfying a demand that is the creation of the last 30 years or so.
Windrush scandal
Go Home vans
Cuts to school spending
Destroying local services by cutting council funding by half
The treatment of the miners
The poll tax
Testing the poll tax out in Scotland
Section 28
Young Conservatives with hang Mandela badges
Margaret Thatcher
Margaret Thatcher's voice
Tory attitude towards Ireland
Fox hunting
Welfare reforms that have led directly to deaths
Food banks
Cutting taxes for people like me who already have plenty of money
Boris Johnson and his garden bridge
Privatised trains
George Osborne's face
I'm sure I've missed loads and others will have their own greatest hits to add to the list.
The point was also made on TV yesterday that 'county lines' drug gangs selling, especially, cocaine are feeding a middle class habit..... a line or two snorted after dinner. There is, maybe, a case for chasing more county lines end customers.
There is also a very strong case for reviewing the laws relating to drugs of addiction.
There is a very strong case for reviewing the laws relating to drugs and legalisation of drugs.
I can't think of any other time when this has been true.
My boarding school had every recreational facility imaginable and I was still a delinquent. I once fired a freshly sharpened HB into the back of another boy's head from a homemade crossbow because I was bored in Bridge club.
As a teenager, becoming aware of/interested in politics for the first time I heard about Section 28 and thought "how can anyone be so f**king spiteful". Since I reached voting age I have voted Labour, Lib Dem, Green on one occasion but I swore as a 14 year old I would never, ever vote Tory because of that one section. Personally I don't give a monkeys about fox hunting, and am ambivalent about renationalising the railway, but there's enough else on @OnlyLivingBoy 's list to fill anyone's list of reasons, particularly Ireland and welfare reform for me.
Jewish Labour MP Dame Margaret Hodge has expressed fresh concerns about how her party is handling accusations of anti-Semitism.
In a letter to Jeremy Corbyn, she claims she has been misled over assurances that his office was not involved in any disciplinary process.
"Either you have intentionally misled me or your staff have been misleading you," she complained.
I'd add the creepy claims to progressiveness in an effort to convince the gullible that they're not the same old Tories. Of course the last two and a half years have been a great cleansing corrective to that auld bollocks.
Brexit CIVIL WAR: Britons REACT to Brexit stalemate – 'Cameron needs his bottom SPANKED'
Trouble is he might enjoy it.
I agree that Corbyn probably can't survive another election defeat - but then he'll be into his 70s by then (his 70th birthday is toward the end of May). There'd be a perfectly good argument for his retiring solely on age grounds if he could quite easily be into his late 70s by the time of the election following. The big question then is who succeeds him. Labour got lucky in one sense in 1983 that their defeat was so bad that Tony Benn lost his seat and so wasn't eligible to stand for the leadership. Had he been (had, for that matter, Benn represented a safer seat), he might easily have won. What then for Labour's future? More defections to the SDP and a real revolution in 1987 after Labour backed the law-breaking of the NUM and centre-left voters migrated? It's possible. And from third place, it's a long and difficult road back.
Fortunately for Labour at the moment, the Lib Dems are also an irrelevance on a national level (unlike the mid-1980s, when they consistently polled 25%+), and TIG seem to have no strategic plan.
Christ - time team stuff.
What about the behaviour of the miners towards the electricity users of the Uk and the police ?
I spent a lot of my time as a teenager doing sports, at clubs, and camping and hiking with friends.
I’m not sure how many of those options are easily available in inner cities.
I'm from a mining family in a mining village and if Scargill and Thatcher turned up Scargill would get shot first.
Not that it was at all likely but had an avowedly pacifist leader led Labour into the 1935 election (or 1936, had Labour been polling well in by-elections causing Baldwin to delay), and won it, there would have been grave consequences for the country and the world.
Whether leaver or remainer, Conservative or Labour, we can agree the following is rather funny:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Z_aax7_QkY
and
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oB87DAvCMY
Just the winner's market for Oz, but the winner with the big six title market is back, and there are a few specials.
For the winner market, Verstappen and Gasly are 8.5 and 34 respectively. Everything else is a bit tight.
Going beyond the big six, there's 201 available even on Ricciardo. But the predominance of the aforementioned top teams is likely to remain.
Not betting just yet. Red Bull *might* be too long.
Perhaps I am showing my age, but I was a kid in the North East of England in the mid 80s so the miners strike was kind of a big deal.
I note with some irony the Labour MP for Birmingham Ladywood has been campaigning against LGBT awareness lesson in schools.
The Tories were on both sides of the Corn Laws debate but it was the side (Peel and followers, including Gladstone), who broke away and ultimately merged into what became the Liberal party, so you can have that issue from 173 years ago as well.
You can probably get some therapy based treatment for this OCD thing you have, if the Tories haven't reamed out the budget for your mental health trust.
Extraordinary to see the Prime Minister's comments about the reduction in Police numbers not being related to rising knife crime not being more widely discussed. I suspect if you asked most people how they would combat crime the answer might be more Police on the streets (and more stop and search powers arguably).
On topic, none of this is any surprise. Corbyn keeps May and the Conservatives in business to a considerable extent. The fear of him and all his works is one of the big factors shoring up the Conservative vote share - the other is for now the Conservatives have taken in leavers but kept their share of remainers
I disagree with the central assertion were Labour led by a centrist they would be miles ahead in the polls. If there were no Brexit, perhaps but if a centrist Labour leader backed remain that would alienate the core of Labour leavers still further. The divisions in Labour on a second vote would still exist and would be causing the centrist leader a lot of problems.