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  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Sterling is a happy bunny today.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    brendan16 said:

    Getting rid of Black Strafford didn't work out too well for Charles I, as Jeremy Corbyn will no doubt remember.
    Maybe as a last resort the Queen needs to step in and dissolve parliament Stuart style! They aren't actually achieving much at present.

    And of course Charles's son eventually pardoned the Earl of Strafford and his property and lands were restored to his heirs - no doubt on condition they were rented out forever more on the 17th century equivalent of air bnb!
    On what constitutional basis do you think the Queen might do that, bearing in mind the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011?

    Mind you, if we are going to hark back to the 1640s, perhaps we should think of pb as the equivalent of the Putney Debates.

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    Absolutely

    Mann is a thickie
    I expect its probably a lot closer in Bassetlaw - his seat - than Islington South or Holborn and St Pancras.

    And how many of the 74% 'Labour' have moved to the TIGgers - assuming that poll was conducted before they split. Labour has already lost seemingly 20% of its vote to the TIGgers - can it afford to lose the 20% of leave voters as well (which in his seat might well go Tory).

    Its very easy to back a second vote if you represent Camden or Islington - there is no risk at all personally.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460
    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain.

    My sense is that Labour offering REF2 and Remain will be a net benefit to them electorally.

    However IMO the move (although I recognize they probably had little choice) is premature. The net electoral benefit only crystallizes if there's an election. Therefore it should have been made only in the event of one. That would have been powerful - if you want to reverse Brexit you must vote for a Labour government.

    I don't like it so much this way. It seems to offer TM an escape route. Parliament (i.e. the opposition) forces her to offer REF2 and the Tories blame this for the 'betrayal' of REF1 and get to stay in power.
  • nico67 said:

    As was the case all along Brexit will only implode if the ERG overplay their hand. I expect a climb down with some warm words from the EU and a thumping speech from the AG Cox providing the suitable ladder .

    Game over for the ERG .

    The ERG won’t climb down. Even if Mogg belatedly (and somewhat reluctantly) wakes up and personally backs the Government there are still those enough in his caucus that’ll ignore him and sink it.

    May needs every single vote. She won’t get them.
    Even if the ERG backs it the DUP won't now will the hardcore rebels like Grieve so it won't be enough.
  • The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,017
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    But this just can't be true.

    Take Blaenau Gwent. Labour vote share in 2017 was 58 per cent. Tory and UKIP vote share was 17.8 per cent.

    Leave won with 62 per cent of the vote.

    A majority of the Leave vote must have come from parties other than Tory and UKIP.

    There are just not enough Tory/UKIP voters in Blaenau Gwent to make up the enormous Leave vote..
    That is hardly a constituency where a change in Brexit policy is likely to threaten Labour, though.
    I never said it was.

    I was pointing out that a specific claim made ("Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain ") must be untrue, at least for some constituencies.

    A change in Brexit policy is very likely to threaten highly marginal Gower (the industrialised North of the constituency by Pontardawe is the Western Valleys, cut from the same cloth as BG).

    And it will threaten the 4 marginal North East constituencies with large Leave votes (Wrecsam, Clwyd South, Delyn and Alyn & Deeside).
  • MattW said:

    Fiona's been sprung.

    Disgraced MP Fiona Onasanya has been released from prison less than four weeks after she was convicted of lying to police over a speeding ticket.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-47369669

    How long does Fi have to appeal?

    This is strange:

    She was found guilty of perverting the course of justice in December.

    The solicitor general reviewed the sentence after a complaint it was too lenient, but found it was not.

    The MP was found guilty of lying to police about a speeding ticket and handed a three-month jail term at the Old Bailey in January.

    The attorney general's office confirmed it would be reviewing the case after it "received a request for the case of Fiona Onasanya to be considered under the unduly lenient sentence scheme".


    I thought reviews were limited to the likes of rape and murder.

    I would expect it to be rejected on the basis of "procedure does not apply". Can we see the evaluation report?
    It isn't just rape and murder sentences that can be reviewed. However, I'm not sure her sentence is for an offence that can be reviewed.
    MattW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FPT

    Being a British politician at national level today is less consequential and worse in terms of opportunity cost than at any time in the last 300 years. It’s no surprise that the calibre of MPs and ministers is in decline.

    MPs are underpaid and under-resourced.

    With a basic salary package some way north of £100k, plus all the extra responsibility, redundancy etc payments and gewgaws, that claim is a bit of a stretch, John.
    An MP's basic salary is £77,379. They do get expenses on top of that but expenses are not additional remuneration. Most do not get any payments for additional responsibilities.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    So Mann should disregard the rest of his constituents?

    Are people who aren't Labour voters unpersons?
    Until 2016 that would have been my view as well, but that was before people who were not Leave voters became “enemies of the people”, “saboteurs”, “citizens of nowhere”, “traitors” etc etc etc. We’ve been told for three years now that people who lose votes should suck it up. So, based on the new rules, yes, Mann should indeed disregard the people who lost in his constituency
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    So Mann should disregard the rest of his constituents?

    Are people who aren't Labour voters unpersons?
    No but the myth that a majority of Labour voters voted leave in Leave constituencies isn’t based on reality and Labour support has become more pro Remain .

    You can’t sustain a policy that ignores that . I’m a Labour supporter but don’t care about another vote however Labour must honour its conference motion .

    Mays deal is more likely to go through now which stops a no deal which is my red line . Labour supporting a second vote helps to avoid a no deal as it will put pressure on the no deal ERG nutjobs .
  • The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    This whole thing is an expensive exercise in teaching the British public that actions have consequences.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210

    The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    And this is what I've been continually wittering on about: there's a significant chance that the things that hurt us in a hard brexit are tiny things that, if they fail, have large effects; things that just happen (tm) at the moment and which few of us give any thought to.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,041

    The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    This whole thing is an expensive exercise in teaching the British public that actions have consequences.
    And that the modern economy is complicated.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,343
    tlg86 said:
    Working from home today!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,041

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    But this just can't be true.

    Take Blaenau Gwent. Labour vote share in 2017 was 58 per cent. Tory and UKIP vote share was 17.8 per cent.

    Leave won with 62 per cent of the vote.

    A majority of the Leave vote must have come from parties other than Tory and UKIP.

    There are just not enough Tory/UKIP voters in Blaenau Gwent to make up the enormous Leave vote..
    That is hardly a constituency where a change in Brexit policy is likely to threaten Labour, though.
    I never said it was.

    I was pointing out that a specific claim made ("Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain ") must be untrue, at least for some constituencies.

    A change in Brexit policy is very likely to threaten highly marginal Gower (the industrialised North of the constituency by Pontardawe is the Western Valleys, cut from the same cloth as BG).

    And it will threaten the 4 marginal North East constituencies with large Leave votes (Wrecsam, Clwyd South, Delyn and Alyn & Deeside).
    Fair enough - but on any reasonable cost benefit analysis, the change in policy was inevitable.

    I see Starmer has stuck his head above the parapet:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/26/keir-starmer-labours-brexit-stance-is-either-credible-deal-or-remain
    Starmer insisted the party agreed on the gist of the wording. “A public vote ought to be between the option on the one hand of a credible leave deal and on the other hand remain … That deal should be subject to the lock of a public vote,” he said.

    “Precisely what wording that is will obviously have to be decided by parliament, but that’s the basic choice.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,041

    Mr. Observer, we live in extraordinary times.

    A massive upgrade for Mercedes this morning, Mr.D.
    The resources required to make so many changes between the first and second test, a mere week apart, must be available only to them and Ferrari.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,447
    Re the Government consulting and advising businesses on Brexit that I hear about on the news regularly - Well I run(ran) a business and I trade both within and outside Europe. As it happens I am retiring, but the Govt doesn't know that. My company still exists and I have literally only just deregistered for Vat.

    I have not been contacted or been sent anything by anyone about Brexit. If I were continuing I need to know stuff. The first things that spring to mind are Intrastat and temporary exports.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    brendan16 said:

    Getting rid of Black Strafford didn't work out too well for Charles I, as Jeremy Corbyn will no doubt remember.
    Maybe as a last resort the Queen needs to step in and dissolve parliament Stuart style! They aren't actually achieving much at present.

    And of course Charles's son eventually pardoned the Earl of Strafford and his property and lands were restored to his heirs - no doubt on condition they were rented out forever more on the 17th century equivalent of air bnb!
    On what constitutional basis do you think the Queen might do that, bearing in mind the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011?

    Mind you, if we are going to hark back to the 1640s, perhaps we should think of pb as the equivalent of the Putney Debates.
    I presume you would have been with the Grandees - the horror of letting the plebs have a vote and the forces it might unleash!
  • The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    And this is what I've been continually wittering on about: there's a significant chance that the things that hurt us in a hard brexit are tiny things that, if they fail, have large effects; things that just happen (tm) at the moment and which few of us give any thought to.
    And the politically relevant angle to this is that they all look to the telly-watching voter like unbelievable government incompetence, and there are thousands of these little land-mines buried in the departments of every single cabinet minister.
  • The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    This whole thing is an expensive exercise in teaching the British public that actions have consequences.
    Yes indeed, but there are still a lot of people (some of whom post on here) that still have their heads firmly in the sand, or their fingers in their ears saying "I'm not listening I'm not listening".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,983

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FPT

    Being a British politician at national level today is less consequential and worse in terms of opportunity cost than at any time in the last 300 years. It’s no surprise that the calibre of MPs and ministers is in decline.

    The problem at the heart of the system of MPs is that the high opportunity cost you mention only applies to one sub-category of would-be politicians.

    Let's take two fantastic candidates:

    Public School + Oxbridge + lawyer = high opportunity cost
    Bog standard comp + technical college or apprenticeship + Union convener = low opportunity cost

    This is false, as there are a lot of public school educated numpties stinking out the benches at Westminster.

    The right equation is:

    Talented, smart person regardless of background = high opportunity cost.

    Absolute dunce who couldn’t start a fire in a firecracker factory = low opportunity cost.
    There are also a lot of public school educated numpties in very well paid white collar jobs and lots of talented smart people in manual labour.
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    So Mann should disregard the rest of his constituents?

    Are people who aren't Labour voters unpersons?
    No but the myth that a majority of Labour voters voted leave in Leave constituencies isn’t based on reality and Labour support has become more pro Remain .

    You can’t sustain a policy that ignores that . I’m a Labour supporter but don’t care about another vote however Labour must honour its conference motion .

    Mays deal is more likely to go through now which stops a no deal which is my red line . Labour supporting a second vote helps to avoid a no deal as it will put pressure on the no deal ERG nutjobs .
    If you want to stop no deal then Labour backing the deal would stop no deal.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210

    The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    And this is what I've been continually wittering on about: there's a significant chance that the things that hurt us in a hard brexit are tiny things that, if they fail, have large effects; things that just happen (tm) at the moment and which few of us give any thought to.
    And the politically relevant angle to this is that they all look to the telly-watching voter like unbelievable government incompetence, and there are thousands of these little land-mines buried in the departments of every single cabinet minister.
    Yep. It is chaos theory writ large: it will be very easy to join the dots after the event, but almost impossible beforehand. All you can do is to try to be as flexible as possible, so when the brown smelly stuff hits the rapidly-rotating blades you can react fast.
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    So Mann should disregard the rest of his constituents?

    Are people who aren't Labour voters unpersons?
    No but the myth that a majority of Labour voters voted leave in Leave constituencies isn’t based on reality and Labour support has become more pro Remain .

    You can’t sustain a policy that ignores that . I’m a Labour supporter but don’t care about another vote however Labour must honour its conference motion .

    Mays deal is more likely to go through now which stops a no deal which is my red line . Labour supporting a second vote helps to avoid a no deal as it will put pressure on the no deal ERG nutjobs .
    I am not a Labour supporter, but my guess has always been that the so-called Labour Leave vote has been overstated and that Labour voters care a lot less about Brexit than right wing Tories. It is simply much less an article of faith for them, and is therefore something that the Labour leadership can take a risk on.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,358
    Anyone stormed out of Cabinet and resigned yet? :D
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    This whole thing is an expensive exercise in teaching the British public that actions have consequences.
    Business Insider is no more a source than a random blog on the internet. Incredible how people swallow it up as a competent news source.
  • tlg86 said:
    No contingency plans to remove or relieve passengers. The SoS should demand ... oh, hold on, it's him isn't it.

    Anyone looking for a use for the internet of things could note foreign railways (and perhaps our own) using internet connected remote sensors to monitor trains and rail infrastructure.

    Urrrm, may I ask what you're referring to wrt Internet of Tat monitoring trains?
    Here is a very short video (more marketing than technical, I fear) showing French railways (SNCF).
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAoDD4hltCs

    And I vaguely recall something a few weeks ago about American railways putting either cameras or sensors on tracks that would analyse the state of the wheels on passing trains.

    How much is hype I do not know but clearly Leeds took everyone by surprise yesterday and if similar incidents can be avoided using remote sensors whose data is analysed automatically, then that is a good thing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460
    edited February 2019
    In the event of parliament forcing TM to offer a referendum on her Deal vs Remain, does anyone have a strong view as to whether she gets to stay and fight that referendum as PM?
  • MattW said:

    Fiona's been sprung.

    Disgraced MP Fiona Onasanya has been released from prison less than four weeks after she was convicted of lying to police over a speeding ticket.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-47369669

    How long does Fi have to appeal?

    This is strange:

    She was found guilty of perverting the course of justice in December.

    The solicitor general reviewed the sentence after a complaint it was too lenient, but found it was not.

    The MP was found guilty of lying to police about a speeding ticket and handed a three-month jail term at the Old Bailey in January.

    The attorney general's office confirmed it would be reviewing the case after it "received a request for the case of Fiona Onasanya to be considered under the unduly lenient sentence scheme".


    I thought reviews were limited to the likes of rape and murder.

    I would expect it to be rejected on the basis of "procedure does not apply". Can we see the evaluation report?
    It isn't just rape and murder sentences that can be reviewed. However, I'm not sure her sentence is for an offence that can be reviewed.
    MattW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FPT

    Being a British politician at national level today is less consequential and worse in terms of opportunity cost than at any time in the last 300 years. It’s no surprise that the calibre of MPs and ministers is in decline.

    MPs are underpaid and under-resourced.

    With a basic salary package some way north of £100k, plus all the extra responsibility, redundancy etc payments and gewgaws, that claim is a bit of a stretch, John.
    An MP's basic salary is £77,379. They do get expenses on top of that but expenses are not additional remuneration. Most do not get any payments for additional responsibilities.
    £77,379 is a lot compared to many other jobs. Ever worked in science?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Getting rid of Black Strafford didn't work out too well for Charles I, as Jeremy Corbyn will no doubt remember.
    Maybe as a last resort the Queen needs to step in and dissolve parliament Stuart style! They aren't actually achieving much at present.

    And of course Charles's son eventually pardoned the Earl of Strafford and his property and lands were restored to his heirs - no doubt on condition they were rented out forever more on the 17th century equivalent of air bnb!
    On what constitutional basis do you think the Queen might do that, bearing in mind the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011?

    Mind you, if we are going to hark back to the 1640s, perhaps we should think of pb as the equivalent of the Putney Debates.

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    Absolutely

    Mann is a thickie
    I expect its probably a lot closer in Bassetlaw - his seat - than Islington South or Holborn and St Pancras.

    And how many of the 74% 'Labour' have moved to the TIGgers - assuming that poll was conducted before they split. Labour has already lost seemingly 20% of its vote to the TIGgers - can it afford to lose the 20% of leave voters as well (which in his seat might well go Tory).

    Its very easy to back a second vote if you represent Camden or Islington - there is no risk at all personally.

    It depends whether you believe YouGov, which finds Labour Leave support at 20% or so, or Survation and Deltapoll, which find it at 33% or so. If the latter are correct, then probably a majority of Labour voters in a seat like Bassetlaw would favour Leave.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,041

    The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    And this is what I've been continually wittering on about: there's a significant chance that the things that hurt us in a hard brexit are tiny things that, if they fail, have large effects; things that just happen (tm) at the moment and which few of us give any thought to.
    And the politically relevant angle to this is that they all look to the telly-watching voter like unbelievable government incompetence, and there are thousands of these little land-mines buried in the departments of every single cabinet minister.
    And the large numbers of voters who say "just get on with it and leave" will not be any more forgiving.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    There is no way for Labour to square the circle. On balance it is better to remain than leave for their polling scores but John Mann, Nandy, Flint and many many others are entirely correct that they will take a thumping in the North, Midlands and Wales on a remain ticket. There is no obvious path to power now, TIG have certainly wounded them and as I said last week I don't think we will see a Labour poll lead for quite a while now.
  • To be fair, this non-vote that Labour are non-proposing would have been impossible to have described in a manifesto.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,358
    edited February 2019
    Brom said:

    There is no way for Labour to square the circle. On balance it is better to remain than leave for their polling scores but John Mann, Nandy, Flint and many many others are entirely correct that they will take a thumping in the North, Midlands and Wales on a remain ticket. There is no obvious path to power now, TIG have certainly wounded them and as I said last week I don't think we will see a Labour poll lead for quite a while now.

    Probably true... But lets just put it on record M'lud that the Tories aren't exactly covering themselves with glory at the moment either... ;)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,983

    MattW said:

    Fiona's been sprung.

    Disgraced MP Fiona Onasanya has been released from prison less than four weeks after she was convicted of lying to police over a speeding ticket.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-47369669

    How long does Fi have to appeal?

    This is strange:

    She was found guilty of perverting the course of justice in December.

    The solicitor general reviewed the sentence after a complaint it was too lenient, but found it was not.

    The MP was found guilty of lying to police about a speeding ticket and handed a three-month jail term at the Old Bailey in January.

    The attorney general's office confirmed it would be reviewing the case after it "received a request for the case of Fiona Onasanya to be considered under the unduly lenient sentence scheme".


    I thought reviews were limited to the likes of rape and murder.

    I would expect it to be rejected on the basis of "procedure does not apply". Can we see the evaluation report?
    It isn't just rape and murder sentences that can be reviewed. However, I'm not sure her sentence is for an offence that can be reviewed.
    MattW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FPT

    Being a British politician at national level today is less consequential and worse in terms of opportunity cost than at any time in the last 300 years. It’s no surprise that the calibre of MPs and ministers is in decline.

    MPs are underpaid and under-resourced.

    With a basic salary package some way north of £100k, plus all the extra responsibility, redundancy etc payments and gewgaws, that claim is a bit of a stretch, John.
    An MP's basic salary is £77,379. They do get expenses on top of that but expenses are not additional remuneration. Most do not get any payments for additional responsibilities.
    £77,379 is a lot compared to many other jobs. Ever worked in science?
    This is exactly my point - oh and it is nearly four times the average salary in Hartlepool (£21k).
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Getting rid of Black Strafford didn't work out too well for Charles I, as Jeremy Corbyn will no doubt remember.
    Maybe as a last resort the Queen needs to step in and dissolve parliament Stuart style! They aren't actually achieving much at present.

    And of course Charles's son eventually pardoned the Earl of Strafford and his property and lands were restored to his heirs - no doubt on condition they were rented out forever more on the 17th century equivalent of air bnb!
    On what constitutional basis do you think the Queen might do that, bearing in mind the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011?

    Mind you, if we are going to hark back to the 1640s, perhaps we should think of pb as the equivalent of the Putney Debates.

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    Absolutely

    Mann is a thickie
    I expect its probably a lot closer in Bassetlaw - his seat - than Islington South or Holborn and St Pancras.

    And how many of the 74% 'Labour' have moved to the TIGgers - assuming that poll was conducted before they split. Labour has already lost seemingly 20% of its vote to the TIGgers - can it afford to lose the 20% of leave voters as well (which in his seat might well go Tory).

    Its very easy to back a second vote if you represent Camden or Islington - there is no risk at all personally.

    It depends whether you believe YouGov, which finds Labour Leave support at 20% or so, or Survation and Deltapoll, which find it at 33% or so. If the latter are correct, then probably a majority of Labour voters in a seat like Bassetlaw would favour Leave.

    I think it's plainly obvious to anyone that has visited Bassetlaw that the majority of Labour voters support leave. I think whether 33 or 20% the numbers are possibly underestimating the strength of remain in inner London and overestimating it in the North. The problem for Labour has always been that they don't need the votes in the places that are 80% remain.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818
    kinabalu said:

    In the event of parliament forcing TM to offer a referendum on her Deal vs Remain, does anyone have a strong view as to whether she gets to stay and fight that referendum as PM?

    Well the Tories can't call a vote to sack her until December and I doubt the cabinet would resign over a referendum forced on them by Parliament.

    So immediately the answer is likely to be No and then the answer will depend on the referendum result. If the result is May's Deal wins she is safe for years, if she loses she's out the door immediately.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,041
    Brom said:

    The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    This whole thing is an expensive exercise in teaching the British public that actions have consequences.
    Business Insider is no more a source than a random blog on the internet. Incredible how people swallow it up as a competent news source.
    Are you saying the story is wrong ?

    It seems as though this was known about last autumn, but has anyone done anything about it ?
    https://www.universalpallets.com/2018/10/pallet-requirements-event-no-deal-brexit/
    ...While in their report, DEFRA were sure that there are enough facilities in the UK who have the correct equipment to provide heat treated pallets, the members of NAPD weren’t so sure.

    Heat treating so many pallets on a regular basis could cause a backlog. And so supply of these heat treated pallets could be slower or require advanced notice, which is exactly the type of small detail exporters don’t need on top of the headline difficulties they’ll experience getting used to a no-deal Brexit Britain.

    The process is slightly smoother for brand new pallets than recon pallets, as they can be constructed from wood that has been heat treated ahead of assembly into a finished pallet. The recon pallets, on the other hand, need to be heat treated as finished products, their old HT stamps must be removed and new HT stamps applied...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    Brom said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Getting rid of Black Strafford didn't work out too well for Charles I, as Jeremy Corbyn will no doubt remember.
    Maybe as a last resort the Queen needs to step in and dissolve parliament Stuart style! They aren't actually achieving much at present.

    And of course Charles's son eventually pardoned the Earl of Strafford and his property and lands were restored to his heirs - no doubt on condition they were rented out forever more on the 17th century equivalent of air bnb!
    On what constitutional basis do you think the Queen might do that, bearing in mind the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011?

    Mind you, if we are going to hark back to the 1640s, perhaps we should think of pb as the equivalent of the Putney Debates.

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    Absolutely

    Mann is a thickie
    I expect its probably a lot closer in Bassetlaw - his seat - than Islington South or Holborn and St Pancras.

    And how many of the 74% 'Labour' have moved to the TIGgers - assuming that poll was conducted before they split. Labour has already lost seemingly 20% of its vote to the TIGgers - can it afford to lose the 20% of leave voters as well (which in his seat might well go Tory).

    Its very easy to back a second vote if you represent Camden or Islington - there is no risk at all personally.

    It depends whether you believe YouGov, which finds Labour Leave support at 20% or so, or Survation and Deltapoll, which find it at 33% or so. If the latter are correct, then probably a majority of Labour voters in a seat like Bassetlaw would favour Leave.

    I think it's plainly obvious to anyone that has visited Bassetlaw that the majority of Labour voters support leave. I think whether 33 or 20% the numbers are possibly underestimating the strength of remain in inner London and overestimating it in the North. The problem for Labour has always been that they don't need the votes in the places that are 80% remain.
    +1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    So Mann should disregard the rest of his constituents?

    Are people who aren't Labour voters unpersons?
    No but the myth that a majority of Labour voters voted leave in Leave constituencies isn’t based on reality and Labour support has become more pro Remain .

    You can’t sustain a policy that ignores that . I’m a Labour supporter but don’t care about another vote however Labour must honour its conference motion .

    Mays deal is more likely to go through now which stops a no deal which is my red line . Labour supporting a second vote helps to avoid a no deal as it will put pressure on the no deal ERG nutjobs .
    I am not a Labour supporter, but my guess has always been that the so-called Labour Leave vote has been overstated and that Labour voters care a lot less about Brexit than right wing Tories. It is simply much less an article of faith for them, and is therefore something that the Labour leadership can take a risk on.
    The most sensible point so far. Enthusiasts on both sides overestimate how much most people are bothered. Many would be very happy if the whole thing just went away right now
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Nigelb said:

    Brom said:

    The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    This whole thing is an expensive exercise in teaching the British public that actions have consequences.
    Business Insider is no more a source than a random blog on the internet. Incredible how people swallow it up as a competent news source.
    Are you saying the story is wrong ?

    It seems as though this was known about last autumn, but has anyone done anything about it ?
    https://www.universalpallets.com/2018/10/pallet-requirements-event-no-deal-brexit/
    ...While in their report, DEFRA were sure that there are enough facilities in the UK who have the correct equipment to provide heat treated pallets, the members of NAPD weren’t so sure.

    Heat treating so many pallets on a regular basis could cause a backlog. And so supply of these heat treated pallets could be slower or require advanced notice, which is exactly the type of small detail exporters don’t need on top of the headline difficulties they’ll experience getting used to a no-deal Brexit Britain.

    The process is slightly smoother for brand new pallets than recon pallets, as they can be constructed from wood that has been heat treated ahead of assembly into a finished pallet. The recon pallets, on the other hand, need to be heat treated as finished products, their old HT stamps must be removed and new HT stamps applied...
    I'm saying it's a non story that hasn't been picked up by a trusted news source that I'm aware of. We all know BI's views on Brexit so I'll take things with a pinch of salt like I do with Buzzfeed, The Canary or Breitbart.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    So Mann should disregard the rest of his constituents?

    Are people who aren't Labour voters unpersons?
    No but the myth that a majority of Labour voters voted leave in Leave constituencies isn’t based on reality and Labour support has become more pro Remain .

    You can’t sustain a policy that ignores that . I’m a Labour supporter but don’t care about another vote however Labour must honour its conference motion .

    Mays deal is more likely to go through now which stops a no deal which is my red line . Labour supporting a second vote helps to avoid a no deal as it will put pressure on the no deal ERG nutjobs .
    I am not a Labour supporter, but my guess has always been that the so-called Labour Leave vote has been overstated and that Labour voters care a lot less about Brexit than right wing Tories. It is simply much less an article of faith for them, and is therefore something that the Labour leadership can take a risk on.
    We were the same about anti-semitism too. The smarts got that wrong....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,133
    Polling suggests that TIG stands for Tories In Government party.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,875
    GIN1138 said:
    Aren't free votes meant to be for matters of conscience?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219

    Looking at the numbers for a second referendum, you have Labour 246, TIG 11, Lib Dem 11, SNP 35, Plaid 4, Green 1, Onasanya 1, = 299 (I don't know how Lewis, Woodcock, Hermon or O'Mara would vote).

    Against, you have 314 Conservatives, 10 DUP, Lloyd, Austin, Field, and Hopkins, making 328.

    Subtract three Deputy Speakers, giving 297 to 327.

    Assume that Hoey, Mann, Powell, Nandy, Snell, Smeeth, Stringer, Campbell, Skinner, Flint, vote against. That gives 287 to 337. Assume a few more Labour MP's abstain, and I think you need close to thirty Conservatives to vote against the government for a referendum amendment to pass.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460
    Brom said:

    There is no way for Labour to square the circle. On balance it is better to remain than leave for their polling scores but John Mann, Nandy, Flint and many many others are entirely correct that they will take a thumping in the North, Midlands and Wales on a remain ticket. There is no obvious path to power now, TIG have certainly wounded them and as I said last week I don't think we will see a Labour poll lead for quite a while now.

    Yes, the pivot to REF2 without a GE takes Labour further from power.

    Rather than place a Labour government on the critical path to getting REF2 what this does is place REF2 on the critical path to the survival of a Tory government.

    Clearly they have done it under duress from their europhile wing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    Brom said:

    There is no way for Labour to square the circle. On balance it is better to remain than leave for their polling scores but John Mann, Nandy, Flint and many many others are entirely correct that they will take a thumping in the North, Midlands and Wales on a remain ticket. There is no obvious path to power now, TIG have certainly wounded them and as I said last week I don't think we will see a Labour poll lead for quite a while now.

    Agreed.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210

    tlg86 said:
    No contingency plans to remove or relieve passengers. The SoS should demand ... oh, hold on, it's him isn't it.

    Anyone looking for a use for the internet of things could note foreign railways (and perhaps our own) using internet connected remote sensors to monitor trains and rail infrastructure.

    Urrrm, may I ask what you're referring to wrt Internet of Tat monitoring trains?
    Here is a very short video (more marketing than technical, I fear) showing French railways (SNCF).
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAoDD4hltCs

    And I vaguely recall something a few weeks ago about American railways putting either cameras or sensors on tracks that would analyse the state of the wheels on passing trains.

    How much is hype I do not know but clearly Leeds took everyone by surprise yesterday and if similar incidents can be avoided using remote sensors whose data is analysed automatically, then that is a good thing.
    We have many such sensors already; BR and its successor have a massive voice and data network, and have for decades (in fact, I don't know if they still do, but they used to earn money selling off excess capacity to other comms providers.).

    Then there is the Flying Banana and similar:
    https://www.networkrail.co.uk/flying-banana-train-what-our-new-measurement-train-does-and-how-it-saves-us-millions-of-pounds/

    Attaching the 'Internet of Tat' handle to such things does little good; besides, they're talking more about big data. And again, AIUI NR already do that.

    But you can rely too much on technology. The new hateful IEP trains have electronic reservation systems; this means that you don't need someone to go through a train putting little pieces of card above each reserved seat. Unfortunately, it works like [email protected]

    (And it's not just the IEPs: when I was on a Virgin train to Preston last week, the guard said over the PA system that the reservations hadn't downloaded yet, halfway through the journey, so you might be asked to move later...)
  • TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Fiona's been sprung.

    Disgraced MP Fiona Onasanya has been released from prison less than four weeks after she was convicted of lying to police over a speeding ticket.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-47369669

    How long does Fi have to appeal?

    This is strange:

    She was found guilty of perverting the course of justice in December.

    The solicitor general reviewed the sentence after a complaint it was too lenient, but found it was not.

    The MP was found guilty of lying to police about a speeding ticket and handed a three-month jail term at the Old Bailey in January.

    The attorney general's office confirmed it would be reviewing the case after it "received a request for the case of Fiona Onasanya to be considered under the unduly lenient sentence scheme".


    I thought reviews were limited to the likes of rape and murder.

    I would expect it to be rejected on the basis of "procedure does not apply". Can we see the evaluation report?
    It isn't just rape and murder sentences that can be reviewed. However, I'm not sure her sentence is for an offence that can be reviewed.
    MattW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FPT

    Being a British politician at national level today is less consequential and worse in terms of opportunity cost than at any time in the last 300 years. It’s no surprise that the calibre of MPs and ministers is in decline.

    MPs are underpaid and under-resourced.

    With a basic salary package some way north of £100k, plus all the extra responsibility, redundancy etc payments and gewgaws, that claim is a bit of a stretch, John.
    An MP's basic salary is £77,379. They do get expenses on top of that but expenses are not additional remuneration. Most do not get any payments for additional responsibilities.
    £77,379 is a lot compared to many other jobs. Ever worked in science?
    This is exactly my point - oh and it is nearly four times the average salary in Hartlepool (£21k).
    It isn't bad for a part time job. After all, if someone can also find time to be, say, Foreign Secretary, whilst also being the Hon. Member for Such and Such, clearly is not a full time job. MPs pretend it is a full time job in order to satisfy those on the Labour benches who are just too hopeless to be able to get an additional job. They therefore pillory anyone that does have an additional job to justify their own inadequacy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
  • Brom said:

    Sean_F said:

    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Getting rid of Black Strafford didn't work out too well for Charles I, as Jeremy Corbyn will no doubt remember.
    Maybe as a last resort the Queen needs to step in and dissolve parliament Stuart style! They aren't actually achieving much at present.

    And of course Charles's son eventually pardoned the Earl of Strafford and his property and lands were restored to his heirs - no doubt on condition they were rented out forever more on the 17th century equivalent of air bnb!
    On what constitutional basis do you think the Queen might do that, bearing in mind the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011?

    Mind you, if we are going to hark back to the 1640s, perhaps we should think of pb as the equivalent of the Putney Debates.

    nico67 said:

    Labour wrong to leave 74 , right to leave 18.

    Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .

    Absolutely

    Mann is a thickie
    I expect its probably a lot closer in Bassetlaw - his seat - than Islington South or Holborn and St Pancras.

    And how many of the 74% 'Labour' have moved to the TIGgers - assuming that poll was conducted before they split. Labour has already lost seemingly 20% of its vote to the TIGgers - can it afford to lose the 20% of leave voters as well (which in his seat might well go Tory).

    Its very easy to back a second vote if you represent Camden or Islington - there is no risk at all personally.

    It depends whether you believe YouGov, which finds Labour Leave support at 20% or so, or Survation and Deltapoll, which find it at 33% or so. If the latter are correct, then probably a majority of Labour voters in a seat like Bassetlaw would favour Leave.

    I think it's plainly obvious to anyone that has visited Bassetlaw that the majority of Labour voters support leave. I think whether 33 or 20% the numbers are possibly underestimating the strength of remain in inner London and overestimating it in the North. The problem for Labour has always been that they don't need the votes in the places that are 80% remain.
    +1
    Probably, but would they switch to the dreaded Tories. Probably not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,041
    edited February 2019
    Brom said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brom said:

    The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    This whole thing is an expensive exercise in teaching the British public that actions have consequences.
    Business Insider is no more a source than a random blog on the internet. Incredible how people swallow it up as a competent news source.
    Are you saying the story is wrong ?

    It seems as though this was known about last autumn, but has anyone done anything about it ?
    https://www.universalpallets.com/2018/10/pallet-requirements-event-no-deal-brexit/
    ...While in their report, DEFRA were sure that there are enough facilities in the UK who have the correct equipment to provide heat treated pallets, the members of NAPD weren’t so sure.

    Heat treating so many pallets on a regular basis could cause a backlog. And so supply of these heat treated pallets could be slower or require advanced notice, which is exactly the type of small detail exporters don’t need on top of the headline difficulties they’ll experience getting used to a no-deal Brexit Britain.

    The process is slightly smoother for brand new pallets than recon pallets, as they can be constructed from wood that has been heat treated ahead of assembly into a finished pallet. The recon pallets, on the other hand, need to be heat treated as finished products, their old HT stamps must be removed and new HT stamps applied...
    I'm saying it's a non story that hasn't been picked up by a trusted news source that I'm aware of. We all know BI's views on Brexit so I'll take things with a pinch of salt like I do with Buzzfeed, The Canary or Breitbart.
    It's repeated in the Guardian.


    And pigworld. :smile:
    http://www.pig-world.co.uk/news/pallet-shortages-emerges-as-new-threat-to-post-brexit-exports.html
  • Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Aren't free votes meant to be for matters of conscience?
    Apparently it is a matter of conscience as to whether to support murderous terrorists, if your conscience is in alignment with Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Aren't free votes meant to be for matters of conscience?
    Apparently it is a matter of conscience as to whether to support murderous terrorists, if your conscience is in alignment with Jeremy Corbyn.
    Why is Hezbollah being banned now?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460
    eek said:

    Well the Tories can't call a vote to sack her until December and I doubt the cabinet would resign over a referendum forced on them by Parliament.

    So immediately the answer is likely to be No and then the answer will depend on the referendum result. If the result is May's Deal wins she is safe for years, if she loses she's out the door immediately.

    OK so you think she would get to stay and fight REF2. I think I agree.

    Follow up question - if she were to offer the Ref as her own Plan B, rather than having it forced upon her by the Opposition, what then? Would it be more difficult for her to survive in those circumstances?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    RoyalBlue said:

    FPT

    Being a British politician at national level today is less consequential and worse in terms of opportunity cost than at any time in the last 300 years. It’s no surprise that the calibre of MPs and ministers is in decline.

    MPs are underpaid and under-resourced.

    That said, it is hard to credit the lack of professionalism and even intellectual curiosity to produce recent gaffes like: not knowing Dover is on the way to France; thinking Slovenia was run from Moscow; not knowing about Nationalists and Loyalists in Northern Ireland.

    And that is betting without those who've spent decades campaigning to leave the EU without ever wondering what life outside should look like.

    What a shower!
    My arse, well resourced and well overpaid, too much cheap food and drink and expenses. It is party time for donkey balloons in Westminster. A days work would kill most of them.
  • Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    Your first sentence is clearly not true. Your second is conjecture, or a statement of opinion dressed up as fact.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,983

    Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    Do you think that Labour should support the ban?
  • eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    In the event of parliament forcing TM to offer a referendum on her Deal vs Remain, does anyone have a strong view as to whether she gets to stay and fight that referendum as PM?

    Well the Tories can't call a vote to sack her until December and I doubt the cabinet would resign over a referendum forced on them by Parliament.

    So immediately the answer is likely to be No and then the answer will depend on the referendum result. If the result is May's Deal wins she is safe for years, if she loses she's out the door immediately.

    If she loses the MPs will have to keep her, otherwise the members will elect a continuity leaver who will keep banging on about Europe and telling people they're going to have a third referendum long after the voters are sick of it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    edited February 2019
    DougSeal said:

    MattW said:

    Well, the SRA have a good Twitter service. 8 minute turnaround.

    https://twitter.com/sra_solicitors/status/1100338565073063937

    Hah! I didn't even know they had an account! God, I'm getting old. Nice one.
    Joined in April 2010, so three years after the likes of Iain Dale and Guido, a year after Mike, and 3 years before @TSE !

    /heckle

    Quite impressive for an institution.
  • Nigelb said:

    Brom said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brom said:

    The Brexit palette becomes even more restrained (ya see what I did there?!).

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1100311952398733312

    This whole thing is an expensive exercise in teaching the British public that actions have consequences.
    Business Insider is no more a source than a random blog on the internet. Incredible how people swallow it up as a competent news source.
    Are you saying the story is wrong ?

    It seems as though this was known about last autumn, but has anyone done anything about it ?
    https://www.universalpallets.com/2018/10/pallet-requirements-event-no-deal-brexit/
    ...While in their report, DEFRA were sure that there are enough facilities in the UK who have the correct equipment to provide heat treated pallets, the members of NAPD weren’t so sure.

    Heat treating so many pallets on a regular basis could cause a backlog. And so supply of these heat treated pallets could be slower or require advanced notice, which is exactly the type of small detail exporters don’t need on top of the headline difficulties they’ll experience getting used to a no-deal Brexit Britain.

    The process is slightly smoother for brand new pallets than recon pallets, as they can be constructed from wood that has been heat treated ahead of assembly into a finished pallet. The recon pallets, on the other hand, need to be heat treated as finished products, their old HT stamps must be removed and new HT stamps applied...
    I'm saying it's a non story that hasn't been picked up by a trusted news source that I'm aware of. We all know BI's views on Brexit so I'll take things with a pinch of salt like I do with Buzzfeed, The Canary or Breitbart.
    It's repeated in the Guardian.


    And pigworld. :smile:
    http://www.pig-world.co.uk/news/pallet-shortages-emerges-as-new-threat-to-post-brexit-exports.html
    How soon before there's a TIG-world magazine? :lol:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210

    Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    His views are a darned sight more relevant than those of an excuser and denier of anti-Semitism such as yourself. ;)
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Mr Foremain Lab voters would not go Blue in huge numbers but some will. Combined with a depressed turnout and some switching to LDs and TIG Labour, UKIP, Brexit it's clear Labour will go backwards. Scotland is not an option for them. Looking at their 60 odd defences with a 5,000 majority or less I reckon 60-70% are leave seats. John Mann should know in Bassetlaw only a marginal swing turns it blue.

    Even if Labour hadn't splintered I could have envisaged a scenario where they won the popular vote but had less seats than the Tories. Gentrification of the major cities has played a huge part in messing up their spread of votes.
  • Been on the phone all morning. So is brexit cancelled now?
  • Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Aren't free votes meant to be for matters of conscience?
    Apparently it is a matter of conscience as to whether to support murderous terrorists, if your conscience is in alignment with Jeremy Corbyn.
    Why is Hezbollah being banned now?
    Clearly for political reasons to embarrass an inept LoTO. It is cynical, but politically astute, and who can have sympathy for the terrorist sympathising Mr Thicky?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,983
    edited February 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Aren't free votes meant to be for matters of conscience?
    Apparently it is a matter of conscience as to whether to support murderous terrorists, if your conscience is in alignment with Jeremy Corbyn.
    Why is Hezbollah being banned now?
    @Nigel_Foremain has answered your question. As to the technicals, it is proscribing the political wing; the military wing is already proscribed. As there is no substantive difference between the two.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549

    Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    His views are a darned sight more relevant than those of an excuser and denier of anti-Semitism such as yourself. ;)
    Go forth and multiply.

    I do not excuse Anti Sematism.
  • Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Aren't free votes meant to be for matters of conscience?
    Apparently it is a matter of conscience as to whether to support murderous terrorists, if your conscience is in alignment with Jeremy Corbyn.
    Why is Hezbollah being banned now?
    The military wing has already been proscribed, it's just the political wing.
  • Sean_F said:


    Looking at the numbers for a second referendum, you have Labour 246, TIG 11, Lib Dem 11, SNP 35, Plaid 4, Green 1, Onasanya 1, = 299 (I don't know how Lewis, Woodcock, Hermon or O'Mara would vote).

    Against, you have 314 Conservatives, 10 DUP, Lloyd, Austin, Field, and Hopkins, making 328.

    Subtract three Deputy Speakers, giving 297 to 327.

    Assume that Hoey, Mann, Powell, Nandy, Snell, Smeeth, Stringer, Campbell, Skinner, Flint, vote against. That gives 287 to 337. Assume a few more Labour MP's abstain, and I think you need close to thirty Conservatives to vote against the government for a referendum amendment to pass.

    I believe that there are 10 current Conservatives who have so far publicly backed a fresh referendum.

    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    George Freeman
    Antoinette Sandbach (over no deal)

    Are there any others?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,474

    Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    How elitist of you. For the few (MPs) not the many (everyone else).
  • Brom said:

    Mr Foremain Lab voters would not go Blue in huge numbers but some will. Combined with a depressed turnout and some switching to LDs and TIG Labour, UKIP, Brexit it's clear Labour will go backwards. Scotland is not an option for them. Looking at their 60 odd defences with a 5,000 majority or less I reckon 60-70% are leave seats. John Mann should know in Bassetlaw only a marginal swing turns it blue.

    Even if Labour hadn't splintered I could have envisaged a scenario where they won the popular vote but had less seats than the Tories. Gentrification of the major cities has played a huge part in messing up their spread of votes.

    That is probably a good analysis, though it also depends on how many Tory votes turn red, and which cancels which. I would not vote Labour with Mr Thicky being in charge, but I might switch to TIG.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210

    Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    His views are a darned sight more relevant than those of an excuser and denier of anti-Semitism such as yourself. ;)
    Go forth and multiply.

    I do not excuse Anti Sematism.
    Yep, you do. Just look at your response to Corbyn's anti-Semitism. You make excuses and deny it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753

    Sean_F said:


    Looking at the numbers for a second referendum, you have Labour 246, TIG 11, Lib Dem 11, SNP 35, Plaid 4, Green 1, Onasanya 1, = 299 (I don't know how Lewis, Woodcock, Hermon or O'Mara would vote).

    Against, you have 314 Conservatives, 10 DUP, Lloyd, Austin, Field, and Hopkins, making 328.

    Subtract three Deputy Speakers, giving 297 to 327.

    Assume that Hoey, Mann, Powell, Nandy, Snell, Smeeth, Stringer, Campbell, Skinner, Flint, vote against. That gives 287 to 337. Assume a few more Labour MP's abstain, and I think you need close to thirty Conservatives to vote against the government for a referendum amendment to pass.

    I believe that there are 10 current Conservatives who have so far publicly backed a fresh referendum.

    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    George Freeman
    Antoinette Sandbach (over no deal)

    Are there any others?
    Amber Rudd also said she’d prefer a second referendum to no deal.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,875
    edited February 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Aren't free votes meant to be for matters of conscience?
    Apparently it is a matter of conscience as to whether to support murderous terrorists, if your conscience is in alignment with Jeremy Corbyn.
    Why is Hezbollah being banned now?
    I don't know the answer to that question but, according to a report yesterday, Britain has been out of line with other European countries and the US on this so what is now being done is bringing us into line. Why (and which government) chose not to follow other countries is an interesting question as well as why now.

    Separately from the Hezbollah issue, there is a case for saying that Britain has over the years been a bit too naive in allowing some very questionable types to operate from our shores. The French were furious over our indulgence of Algerian terrorists a few years back, for instance. And if other countries impose a ban and we don't then we become the forum of choice for such groups, which may not be best for this country or its reputation.
  • One point on the difference between now and then...People seemed to think May was actually really good at her job (prior to the GE campaign), with loads of vox pops of working class Labour supporters saying they preferred her to Jezza. Tories mega leads were because of a perception of May being better than the Tories.

    That is partly why the Tories lead crashed when the May bot was exposed as being bloody useless at campaigning (plus the dementia tax and Jezza well rehearsed message getting traction).

    Nobody thinks May is some sort of amazing transformative leader these days. So it is 11 point lead despite May, not because of her.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    MattW said:

    Fiona's been sprung.

    Disgraced MP Fiona Onasanya has been released from prison less than four weeks after she was convicted of lying to police over a speeding ticket.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-47369669

    How long does Fi have to appeal?

    This is strange:

    She was found guilty of perverting the course of justice in December.

    The solicitor general reviewed the sentence after a complaint it was too lenient, but found it was not.

    The MP was found guilty of lying to police about a speeding ticket and handed a three-month jail term at the Old Bailey in January.

    The attorney general's office confirmed it would be reviewing the case after it "received a request for the case of Fiona Onasanya to be considered under the unduly lenient sentence scheme".


    I thought reviews were limited to the likes of rape and murder.

    I would expect it to be rejected on the basis of "procedure does not apply". Can we see the evaluation report?
    It isn't just rape and murder sentences that can be reviewed. However, I'm not sure her sentence is for an offence that can be reviewed.
    MattW said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FPT

    Being a British politician at national level today is less consequential and worse in terms of opportunity cost than at any time in the last 300 years. It’s no surprise that the calibre of MPs and ministers is in decline.

    MPs are underpaid and under-resourced.

    With a basic salary package some way north of £100k, plus all the extra responsibility, redundancy etc payments and gewgaws, that claim is a bit of a stretch, John.
    An MP's basic salary is £77,379. They do get expenses on top of that but expenses are not additional remuneration. Most do not get any payments for additional responsibilities.
    Their expenses cover every penny they spend so their 77K plus gold plated pensions etc is all just bunce. Have you seen the stuff they claim for , down to penny items and most of them would be lucky to hold down a 20K a year job into the bargain and those that could are already minted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    Scott_P said:
    Who the hell is leaking from a Cabinet still in progress? They should be out on their ear....
  • One point on the difference between now and then...People seemed to think May was actually really good at her job (prior to the GE campaign), with loads of vox pops of working class Labour supporters saying they preferred her to Jezza. Tories mega leads were because of a perception of May being better than the Tories.

    That is partly why the Tories lead crashed when the May bot was exposed as being bloody useless at campaigning (plus the dementia tax and Jezza well rehearsed message getting traction).

    Nobody thinks May is some sort of amazing transformative leader these days. So it is 11 point lead despite May, not because of her.

    "Despite Brexit", surely?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,875
    Scott_P said:
    What is the point of just extending Article 50? It has to be for a reason; it needs the consent of the EU so we need to say why - a referendum or for technical reasons or whatever?

    Just extending so that we can prolong the agony is pointless.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    In the event of parliament forcing TM to offer a referendum on her Deal vs Remain, does anyone have a strong view as to whether she gets to stay and fight that referendum as PM?

    Well the Tories can't call a vote to sack her until December and I doubt the cabinet would resign over a referendum forced on them by Parliament.

    So immediately the answer is likely to be No and then the answer will depend on the referendum result. If the result is May's Deal wins she is safe for years, if she loses she's out the door immediately.

    If she loses the MPs will have to keep her, otherwise the members will elect a continuity leaver who will keep banging on about Europe and telling people they're going to have a third referendum long after the voters are sick of it.
    True, so if Parliament forces a referendum through May wins come what may.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    edited February 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    His views are a darned sight more relevant than those of an excuser and denier of anti-Semitism such as yourself. ;)
    Go forth and multiply.

    I do not excuse Anti Sematism.
    Yep, you do. Just look at your response to Corbyn's anti-Semitism. You make excuses and deny it.
    I Corbyn is not AS

    No matter how many times you say it. It doesn't make it true.

    I feel it is completely unacceptable you call me an excuser of AS.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Mr Foremain Lab voters would not go Blue in huge numbers but some will. Combined with a depressed turnout and some switching to LDs and TIG Labour, UKIP, Brexit it's clear Labour will go backwards. Scotland is not an option for them. Looking at their 60 odd defences with a 5,000 majority or less I reckon 60-70% are leave seats. John Mann should know in Bassetlaw only a marginal swing turns it blue.

    Even if Labour hadn't splintered I could have envisaged a scenario where they won the popular vote but had less seats than the Tories. Gentrification of the major cities has played a huge part in messing up their spread of votes.

    That is probably a good analysis, though it also depends on how many Tory votes turn red, and which cancels which. I would not vote Labour with Mr Thicky being in charge, but I might switch to TIG.
    Yes, think there will be a lot more Red to Blue movers than the other way. Tories more likely to shed to UKIP or Tig/Libs but that is less of a problem in what are predominantly 2 horse races.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219

    Sean_F said:


    Looking at the numbers for a second referendum, you have Labour 246, TIG 11, Lib Dem 11, SNP 35, Plaid 4, Green 1, Onasanya 1, = 299 (I don't know how Lewis, Woodcock, Hermon or O'Mara would vote).

    Against, you have 314 Conservatives, 10 DUP, Lloyd, Austin, Field, and Hopkins, making 328.

    Subtract three Deputy Speakers, giving 297 to 327.

    Assume that Hoey, Mann, Powell, Nandy, Snell, Smeeth, Stringer, Campbell, Skinner, Flint, vote against. That gives 287 to 337. Assume a few more Labour MP's abstain, and I think you need close to thirty Conservatives to vote against the government for a referendum amendment to pass.

    I believe that there are 10 current Conservatives who have so far publicly backed a fresh referendum.

    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    George Freeman
    Antoinette Sandbach (over no deal)

    Are there any others?
    I could see people like Nick Boles, Nicky Morgan, Oliver Letwin doing so if they felt they had no alternative, but I don't think they're going to break ranks at this point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753

    Scott_P said:
    Who the hell is leaking from a Cabinet still in progress? They should be out on their ear....
    https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1100356206567321600?s=21
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,176
    edited February 2019
    As touched on in the previous thread, Labour's position on a referendum is all over the place.

    Emily Thornberry (tweet): "I've seen some nonsense that I "misspoke" earlier on a public vote. Pretty hard to misspeak identically in 10 interviews, but for clarity: if Theresa May won't accept our deal, then the public must decide: do we accept whatever deal she gets through, or do we Remain? Got it?"

    Keir Starmer on Today this morning: “A public vote ought to be between the option on the one hand of a credible leave deal and on the other hand remain."

    Given that Labour's position is that the current EU deal is not a credible leave deal - which Keir Starmer emphasised at some length in the same interview - those two statements are directly contradictory. The Thornberry one has the merit of being realistic - we could have a referendum on the lines she suggests, whereas the Starmer one is completely out with the fairies: how can you have a referendum where one option doesn't exist?

    Meanwhile Seamas Milne, and probably Corbyn, don't seem to actually support their own U-turn.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:


    Looking at the numbers for a second referendum, you have Labour 246, TIG 11, Lib Dem 11, SNP 35, Plaid 4, Green 1, Onasanya 1, = 299 (I don't know how Lewis, Woodcock, Hermon or O'Mara would vote).

    Against, you have 314 Conservatives, 10 DUP, Lloyd, Austin, Field, and Hopkins, making 328.

    Subtract three Deputy Speakers, giving 297 to 327.

    Assume that Hoey, Mann, Powell, Nandy, Snell, Smeeth, Stringer, Campbell, Skinner, Flint, vote against. That gives 287 to 337. Assume a few more Labour MP's abstain, and I think you need close to thirty Conservatives to vote against the government for a referendum amendment to pass.

    I believe that there are 10 current Conservatives who have so far publicly backed a fresh referendum.

    Guto Bebb
    Damian Collins
    Justine Greening
    Dominic Grieve
    Sam Gyimah
    Jo Johnson
    Phillip Lee
    Andrew Mitchell
    George Freeman
    Antoinette Sandbach (over no deal)

    Are there any others?
    I could see people like Nick Boles, Nicky Morgan, Oliver Letwin doing so if they felt they had no alternative, but I don't think they're going to break ranks at this point.
    George Freeman just came out against a 2nd ref. I suspect of those 10 around 6 or 7 would actually back a People's Vote. Some seem to not want Brexit but not wish to truly oppose it either.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,983

    Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    His views are a darned sight more relevant than those of an excuser and denier of anti-Semitism such as yourself. ;)
    Go forth and multiply.

    I do not excuse Anti Sematism.
    Yep, you do. Just look at your response to Corbyn's anti-Semitism. You make excuses and deny it.
    I Corbyn is not AS

    No matter how many times you say it. It doesn't make it true.

    I feel it is completely unacceptable you call me an excuser of AS.
    Corbyn is an anti-semite. That is just obvious. As we were discussing yesterday - look at the Islington mural issue for confirmation.

    And I'm afraid that makes you an excuser of AS.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    tlg86 said:
    Working from home today!
    You should be made to take yesterday as a holiday given the time you idled in that train
  • Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    His views are a darned sight more relevant than those of an excuser and denier of anti-Semitism such as yourself. ;)
    Go forth and multiply.

    I do not excuse Anti Sematism.
    Yep, you do. Just look at your response to Corbyn's anti-Semitism. You make excuses and deny it.
    I Corbyn is not AS

    No matter how many times you say it. It doesn't make it true.

    I feel it is completely unacceptable you call me an excuser of AS.
    It is an opinion, I know, but I am in no doubt that Corbyn is passively anti-Semitic, in the same way that some of my elderly relatives (I am sad to say) are passively racist. Supporting him obviously does not make you the same, but apologising for his comments on the mural or his "they don't understand irony" doesn't look good.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,875
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/register/sir-charles-farr-obituary-jc57gd83x

    A young age to die. He was close to May and to Fiona Hill.
  • Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Mr Foremain Lab voters would not go Blue in huge numbers but some will. Combined with a depressed turnout and some switching to LDs and TIG Labour, UKIP, Brexit it's clear Labour will go backwards. Scotland is not an option for them. Looking at their 60 odd defences with a 5,000 majority or less I reckon 60-70% are leave seats. John Mann should know in Bassetlaw only a marginal swing turns it blue.

    Even if Labour hadn't splintered I could have envisaged a scenario where they won the popular vote but had less seats than the Tories. Gentrification of the major cities has played a huge part in messing up their spread of votes.

    That is probably a good analysis, though it also depends on how many Tory votes turn red, and which cancels which. I would not vote Labour with Mr Thicky being in charge, but I might switch to TIG.
    Yes, think there will be a lot more Red to Blue movers than the other way. Tories more likely to shed to UKIP or Tig/Libs but that is less of a problem in what are predominantly 2 horse races.
    Probably anyone's guess at the moment.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    Your views are not relevant now though.

    You will be an ex MP next time there is a vote.
    His views are a darned sight more relevant than those of an excuser and denier of anti-Semitism such as yourself. ;)
    Go forth and multiply.

    I do not excuse Anti Sematism.
    Yep, you do. Just look at your response to Corbyn's anti-Semitism. You make excuses and deny it.
    I Corbyn is not AS

    No matter how many times you say it. It doesn't make it true.

    I feel it is completely unacceptable you call me an excuser of AS.
    Corbyn is an anti-semite. That is just obvious. As we were discussing yesterday - look at the Islington mural issue for confirmation.

    And I'm afraid that makes you an excuser of AS.
    I will not engage further with you or JJ

    You are both wrong.

    Goodbye


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460
    malcolmg said:

    My arse, well resourced and well overpaid, too much cheap food and drink and expenses. It is party time for donkey balloons in Westminster. A days work would kill most of them.

    I say, that's a bit strong.
This discussion has been closed.