politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency
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Everyone knows TV is extremely important. Nowhere more so than at the culmination of a campaign. Hence the seeming reluctance from the Cameroons over the 2015 debates. As for the rest, well let's just say that any party who dismisses the power of a ground campaign had better not expect to do very well at GOTV where turnout may be a deciding factor and where every vote counts in a campaign.corporeal said:
They aren't trying to be a source of information.CarlottaVance said:
The recent poll on Scotland's referendum ranked leaflets along with direct contact and internet fora as having almost negligible impact as a source of information - the TV was orders of magnitude ahead of anything else.....HurstLlama said:"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.0 -
Some good news to relieve the gloom
The First Estimate of Q4 2013 GDP counter-intuitively reported a fall in Construction output of -0.3%. I stated at the time that this looked wrong and would be a candidate for future upward revision. DavidL made similar comments.
The ONS this morning released its report on Construction Output in December and Q4 2013. As anticipated the -0.3 has been revised upward and now stands at 0.2% growth:
The Preliminary Estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published on 28 January 2014 contained a forecast for quarterly construction output of minus 0.3%. This estimate has been revised within this release based on updated survey responses and is now estimated to have grown 0.2%, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage points.
The upward revision is not sufficient to change the headline GDP growth rate for Q4 which remains at 0.7% but does add upward pressure pending further detailed reviews of the individual sectors which make up the GDP Output metric.
Driving the figures upward was growth in residential housing construction which rose by 10.4% on an annual basis.
Although house building is rising rapidly, it is worth taking stock of where we stand today in relation to pre-crisis output:
The estimated annual volume of construction output in 2013 of £112.6 billion is 3.9% greater than the level recorded during the economic downturn in 2009. However, construction output remains 12.2% below its peak of £128.2 billion recorded in 2007.
There is some talk in the media of Q1 2014 growth being hit by the current floods. Replacement activity due to the destruction caused by natural crises can often boost economic output in the short term (what Ed Conway is calling "the broken window effect" on Sky), but this probably won't apply, at least in the short term, to the construction sector. We should therefore expect dampened ('ho, ho') Q1 output figures for Construction to be reversed during the spring and summer if or when the sun eventually decides to shine.
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At the 2013 local elections UKIP got 878 2nd places.antifrank said:
That's right. I don't regard that as a particularly outlandish thing to say. Given that we can ignore Scotland, northern Ireland and Wales for this purpose, that Labour and the Conservatives will be first and second in the great bulk of seats, that the Lib Dems will be concentrating their efforts in those seats where they're competitive and UKIP will be spread very thinly with little experience of elections, I'd have thought 10 second places would be a pretty good result for UKIP.Pulpstar said:
UKIP to get less than 10 second places at the General Election ?!antifrank said:
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.
http://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news/632-our-county-council-election-results-at-a-glance
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which politicians for which Winter Olympic event?
Eric Pickles --luge
Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper - Ice dance (be warned though Bolero ends with both skaters falling down a big black hole)
Peter Mandleson - skeleton --very slippy
Alex Salmond - slopestyle -- has to pull off something insane to win!!(also presumably as a Scot he is at home with pipes and bars!)
Tony Blair - Biathlon - travelling across country then taking pot shots randomly
anymore?0 -
Sunil Prasannan@Sunil_P2·
#LibDems' GB by-election %-ages since GE 2010 - 8 lost deposits from 15. Only 3 polls higher than 20% #Wythenshawe
http://t.co/VBgDNsxbwv0 -
I can just imagine Eric wedged tightly between the walls on a particularly tight turn.state_go_away said:
which politicians for which Winter Olympic event?
Eric Pickles --luge
Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper - Ice dance (be warned though Bolero ends with both skaters falling down a big black hole)
Peter Mandleson - skeleton --very slippy
Alex Salmond - slopestyle -- has to pull off something insane to win!!(also presumably as a Scot he is at home with pipes and bars!)
Tony Blair - Biathlon - travelling across country then taking pot shots randomly
anymore?
Clegg - slalom - lurching to the left and then the right and then the left and then ... you get the idea.0 -
I think you can get big changes between Labour and the Tories on a relatively small swing, but with FPTP for a party to come out of nowhere and do anything is almost impossible.david_herdson said:
Thing don't usually change at general elections as much as you think they will. Which is not the same thing.CopperSulphate said:
Things never change at general elections as much as you think they will. The Lib Dems looked neck and neck with the big two last time in opinion polls, but got less than the previous election in the end.Pulpstar said:
15-20 second places ?! It'll be more than that...state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.
1906, 1918, 1924, 1931, 1945, 1970 and 1997 (probably among others) were all elections which moved more than at least some influential people expected. Reading Chris Mullin's diaries, many Labour MPs and activists expected no more than a modest majority, for example.
UKIP does have the potential to throw an almighty spanner in the electoral works. They may fizzle, they may draw votes close to equally and make little difference - or they may have a very significant impact, either directly or indirectly.
One lesson to draw from Wythenshawe is that none of the parties particularly enthused the electorate, either positively for themselves or as a conduit for negative/protest voting against the others. A sub-30% turnout is poor and points to the potential for breakthrough if someone can motivate and mobilise the disaffected.
UKIP only got 3% at the last election, so even a 20% increase would give them 23% and that might only get them a handful of seats.0 -
Given the only BT leaflets I have seen have been so amateurish and just blatant lies it is no surprise. They have no volunteers or infrastructure to distribute material but instead have to rely on the BBC propaganda organ. No story and no volunteers , and invisible leader.Carnyx said:
Well, true, but it also depends if the leaflets are there at all. I've certainly had hardly any No leaflets, though rather more Yes ones. And it's early days yet, by GE standards, so people may not be paying too much attention to referendum bumf. The figures for that and the net might change somewhat in the last few months.corporeal said:
They aren't trying to be a source of information.CarlottaVance said:
The recent poll on Scotland's referendum ranked leaflets along with direct contact and internet fora as having almost negligible impact as a source of information - the TV was orders of magnitude ahead of anything else.....HurstLlama said:"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.0 -
I think some of the China-based conferences I have been invited to are relatively genuine, but they could easily pass for coming from a spammer...Carnyx said:
The ones I used to get tend to pretend to be from IT but the recent ones have been pretending to be, not so much from the same organization, but from an important related outside agency which cannot easily be ignored!edmundintokyo said:
Very public-spirited of the spammers. When HR send something genuine everyone will think it's phishing. It's like a DDoS on stupid shit.Carnyx said:
Presumably you have checked with your HR that it is a genuine email - it may seem patronising to ask, but I have recently very nearly been caught out by a recent phishing email which looked extremely authentic in the particular context of my work, and it was a slight incongruity like yours that alerted me (I think they had copied a genuine email for the format and sent it to a number of employees of the organization whose emails they had trawled off the net or the website).Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.0 -
It certainly looks that way. It certainly isn't for enthusiasm for Viktor Orbán though. In 2010 there was real enthusiasm for him (or more precisely, a zeal to get rid of the socialists). This time, he'll be re-elected because of an absence of a sensible alternative.NickPalmer said:antifrank said:
Greetings from a grey but dry Budapest. The general election campaign here is underway (the first round of elections is on 6 April).
Fidesz seems pretty much home and dry?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2014
The opposition is shambolic. As I said on the last thread, the last three leaders of the socialist party each now head a separate party, and while they have come together for the election, they still haven't really recovered from the hammering they took in 2010.
Viktor Orbán has ruthlessly exploited his party's dominance in Parliament in this term and his control of the media. It's been ugly but effective. Oh, and guess what? Fuel bills have been reduced by government fiat, just in time for the election.
Thankfully, the far right Jobbik seem to be fading rapidly just as the election is due.
We look set for another four years of Fidesz hegemony. It's like a government headed by Silvio Berlusconi, but without the sex.0 -
The worst Prime Minister of all time still managed to poll, what was it, 28% in 2010?Socrates said:Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly.
I don't think people vote Labour or not for any reasons connected with the leader's performance. The main vector is I think this:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100257586/labour-supporters-admit-it-taxes-are-to-punish-the-rich-not-to-raise-revenue/
You get to vent the ugliest of envy while simultaneously applauding yourself for your deeply moral character. This being so, why give a stuff how the leader's doing, as long as he making other people worse off?0 -
I wonder to what extent having to resign their Brussels seats impacted? Winning a by-election now means dropping out of the Euro Parliament for 5.5 years in return for a 1.5 year stint in Westminster and then potentially a 4 year wait to get back to Brussels.RodCrosby said:
Farage should have stood in Eastleigh, Nuttall in Wythenshawe. The media circus following them would probably have been worth another 5,000 votes, and the bandwagon effect would probably have seen them home...0 -
malcolmg - if you had to quote odds at the moment on YES/NO for the indyref, what would you go for? Seems like this discussion has become so polarised it's become stale and I'm keen to see how confident the YES supporters are. Many thanksmalcolmg said:
Given the only BT leaflets I have seen have been so amateurish and just blatant lies it is no surprise. They have no volunteers or infrastructure to distribute material but instead have to rely on the BBC propaganda organ. No story and no volunteers , and invisible leader.Carnyx said:
Well, true, but it also depends if the leaflets are there at all. I've certainly had hardly any No leaflets, though rather more Yes ones. And it's early days yet, by GE standards, so people may not be paying too much attention to referendum bumf. The figures for that and the net might change somewhat in the last few months.corporeal said:
They aren't trying to be a source of information.CarlottaVance said:
The recent poll on Scotland's referendum ranked leaflets along with direct contact and internet fora as having almost negligible impact as a source of information - the TV was orders of magnitude ahead of anything else.....HurstLlama said:"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.0 -
UKIP could end up second in lots of safe Tory seats where neither Labour or Lib Dems have a chance (and, well, neither do UKIP), and likewise for safe Labour seats.antifrank said:
That's right. I don't regard that as a particularly outlandish thing to say. Given that we can ignore Scotland, northern Ireland and Wales for this purpose, that Labour and the Conservatives will be first and second in the great bulk of seats, that the Lib Dems will be concentrating their efforts in those seats where they're competitive and UKIP will be spread very thinly with little experience of elections, I'd have thought 10 second places would be a pretty good result for UKIP.Pulpstar said:
UKIP to get less than 10 second places at the General Election ?!antifrank said:
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.
Perhaps most seats where the winner scores over 50% will have UKIP in second place - in other words UKIP will receive the vast majority of the most pointless and inefficiently distributed votes in the country.0 -
Highly unusual but not impossible (or even almost impossible). It requires the right combination of circumstance, personnel and strategy (and probably, luck).CopperSulphate said:
I think you can get big changes between Labour and the Tories on a relatively small swing, but with FPTP for a party to come out of nowhere and do anything is almost impossible.david_herdson said:
Thing don't usually change at general elections as much as you think they will. Which is not the same thing.CopperSulphate said:
Things never change at general elections as much as you think they will. The Lib Dems looked neck and neck with the big two last time in opinion polls, but got less than the previous election in the end.Pulpstar said:
15-20 second places ?! It'll be more than that...state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?
1906, 1918, 1924, 1931, 1945, 1970 and 1997 (probably among others) were all elections which moved more than at least some influential people expected. Reading Chris Mullin's diaries, many Labour MPs and activists expected no more than a modest majority, for example.
UKIP does have the potential to throw an almighty spanner in the electoral works. They may fizzle, they may draw votes close to equally and make little difference - or they may have a very significant impact, either directly or indirectly.
One lesson to draw from Wythenshawe is that none of the parties particularly enthused the electorate, either positively for themselves or as a conduit for negative/protest voting against the others. A sub-30% turnout is poor and points to the potential for breakthrough if someone can motivate and mobilise the disaffected.
UKIP only got 3% at the last election, so even a 20% increase would give them 23% and that might only get them a handful of seats.
The piece I wrote the other week envisioning Farage becoming PM was partly tongue-in-cheek but I do think that odds of 66/1 in current circumstances are about right. Maybe Wythenshawe should push that out to 100/1 but it remains at the outer edge of possible, requiring all three other parties to give the voters a reason not to back them, and for the new party to be credible and electorally effective. That's a big ask but as previous polls have shown, the three big Westminster parties have never been so unpopular so that's the first hurdle passed.0 -
O/T - For Morris Dancer, My betting for the weekend's footy.
Swansea to beat Everton at 11/2
Hazard to be FGS at the Man City v Chelsea Match at 8/1
Gerrard and Agger to be FGS at 12/1 and 33/1 respectively in Arsenal v Liverpool match.0 -
Labour will win Manchester Withington even if they manage to lose net seats in 2015.Hugh said:
30 odd on the target list, about half way to a majority...TheScreamingEagles said:If you fancy a 10% return in 15 months time
@LadPolitics: Ladbrokes release Manchester Withington odds for General Election.
1/10 Labour
5/1 Lib Dems0 -
Wonderful scenes of organised flood defences on the news channels.
Gurkhas, marines and sailors all fighting for Britannia on the playing fields of Southern England under the cool, unflustered command of the officer class. Even Kay Burley is swooning at all the men in uniform.
Another example of Labour creating a mess which the Tories had to clean up.
As Maggie handbagged the hegemony of Eurocrats, so Dave is sandbagging the creeping socialism of the floods.0 -
Honestly, knowing the activists, Labour are absolutely determined to defeat John Leech, for his campaign in 2005 re Christies Hospital.Neil said:
Labour will win Manchester Withington even if they manage to lose net seats in 2015.Hugh said:
30 odd on the target list, about half way to a majority...TheScreamingEagles said:If you fancy a 10% return in 15 months time
@LadPolitics: Ladbrokes release Manchester Withington odds for General Election.
1/10 Labour
5/1 Lib Dems
The Lib Dems are fighting like hell, but deep down, I think they realise this seat is a gonner, their best hope is on the Tories voting tactically, but I don't think that's going to happen.0 -
Liquid lunch Mr P ?AveryLP said:Wonderful scenes of organised flood defences on the news channels.
Gurkhas, marines and sailors all fighting for Britannia on the playing fields of Southern England under the cool, unflustered command of the officer class. Even Kay Burley is swooning at all the men in uniform.
Another example of Labour creating a mess which the Tories had to clean up.
As Maggie handbagged the hegemony of Eurocrats, so Dave is sandbagging the creeping socialism of the floods.0 -
NeilNeil said:
I thought it was that UKIP had to manage expectations better? Going to reduce your forecast for UKIP MPs in 2015?MikeK said:The big lesson from last night is that the L/Dems are in meltdown.
The lesson of last night was that "the funereal bak'd meats will rarely furnish forth the Farage table".
In the time austerity, Hamlet had it right: "Thrift, thrift, Horatio".
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My life! Saying ukip is on the decline because they improved their vote share500%!!!
OGH have a lie down0 -
I shall be sober by evening, Mr. Brooke.Alanbrooke said:
Liquid lunch Mr P ?AveryLP said:Wonderful scenes of organised flood defences on the news channels.
Gurkhas, marines and sailors all fighting for Britannia on the playing fields of Southern England under the cool, unflustered command of the officer class. Even Kay Burley is swooning at all the men in uniform.
Another example of Labour creating a mess which the Tories had to clean up.
As Maggie handbagged the hegemony of Eurocrats, so Dave is sandbagging the creeping socialism of the floods.
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On topic (finally):
In absolute terms, this was a good result for UKIP from a standing start in a seat which was not their natural terrain. They beat my initial expectations.
However, they need to get better at expectations management, as I noted the other day.0 -
Whereas I hope I won't be. Looks like crossover sometime this evening ;-)AveryLP said:
I shall be sober by evening, Mr. Brooke.Alanbrooke said:
Liquid lunch Mr P ?AveryLP said:Wonderful scenes of organised flood defences on the news channels.
Gurkhas, marines and sailors all fighting for Britannia on the playing fields of Southern England under the cool, unflustered command of the officer class. Even Kay Burley is swooning at all the men in uniform.
Another example of Labour creating a mess which the Tories had to clean up.
As Maggie handbagged the hegemony of Eurocrats, so Dave is sandbagging the creeping socialism of the floods.0 -
Just came across this wonderful definition in Samuel Johnson's dictionary:
Oats: a grain which in England is generally given to a horse, but in Scotland it supports the people
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Yes, and look at the horses!Patrick said:Just came across this wonderful definition in Samuel Johnson's dictionary:
Oats: a grain which in England is generally given to a horse, but in Scotland it supports the people
Did you know you can get Oatibix instead of Weetabix now, BTW? The difference is pretty obvious.
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Now? They've been doing it for years.Carnyx said:
Yes, and look at the horses!Patrick said:Just came across this wonderful definition in Samuel Johnson's dictionary:
Oats: a grain which in England is generally given to a horse, but in Scotland it supports the people
Did you know you can get Oatibix instead of Weetabix now, BTW? The difference is pretty obvious.0 -
Well, I hadn't noticed - got our cereal at the local wholefood coop till the maker got bought out, so had to find a new supplier ... seems so suit my digestion better than Weetabix anyway.corporeal said:
Now? They've been doing it for years.Carnyx said:
Yes, and look at the horses!Patrick said:Just came across this wonderful definition in Samuel Johnson's dictionary:
Oats: a grain which in England is generally given to a horse, but in Scotland it supports the people
Did you know you can get Oatibix instead of Weetabix now, BTW? The difference is pretty obvious.
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They are wasting their time there. The results since 2010 have been horrific.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Lib Dems are fighting like hell, but deep down, I think they realise this seat is a gonner, their best hope is on the Tories voting tactically, but I don't think that's going to happen.0 -
I think the odds should be much much longer than that.david_herdson said:
Highly unusual but not impossible (or even almost impossible). It requires the right combination of circumstance, personnel and strategy (and probably, luck).CopperSulphate said:
I think you can get big changes between Labour and the Tories on a relatively small swing, but with FPTP for a party to come out of nowhere and do anything is almost impossible.david_herdson said:
Thing don't usually change at general elections as much as you think they will. Which is not the same thing.CopperSulphate said:
Things never change at general elections as much as you think they will. The Lib Dems looked neck and neck with the big two last time in opinion polls, but got less than the previous election in the end.Pulpstar said:
15-20 second places ?! It'll be more than that...state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?
One lesson to draw from Wythenshawe is that none of the parties particularly enthused the electorate, either positively for themselves or as a conduit for negative/protest voting against the others. A sub-30% turnout is poor and points to the potential for breakthrough if someone can motivate and mobilise the disaffected.
UKIP only got 3% at the last election, so even a 20% increase would give them 23% and that might only get them a handful of seats.
The piece I wrote the other week envisioning Farage becoming PM was partly tongue-in-cheek but I do think that odds of 66/1 in current circumstances are about right. Maybe Wythenshawe should push that out to 100/1 but it remains at the outer edge of possible, requiring all three other parties to give the voters a reason not to back them, and for the new party to be credible and electorally effective. That's a big ask but as previous polls have shown, the three big Westminster parties have never been so unpopular so that's the first hurdle passed.0 -
They'll be selling Barleybix soon!0
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. Carnyx, I tried some oat-based cereal some time ago. It was horrendous.
F1: Renault admit the rather obvious (they're behind schedule): http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26190493
A couple of hours after I mentioned it, the BBC wakes up and reports De Silvestro's signing by Sauber:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26190138
Her results, to my IndyCar ignorant eye, don't look stellar. It's worth saying, however, that Kobayashi also wasn't the best in his category (GP2, I think) but really took to F1. A female driver would be a good thing for all sorts of reasons, but it's important she's got the skill and isn't there just as a marketing exercise (although there are obvious promotional advantages).0 -
PatrickPatrick said:Just came across this wonderful definition in Samuel Johnson's dictionary:
Oats: a grain which in England is generally given to a horse, but in Scotland it supports the people
Doc Sam was very sound on the subject of the Scotch. Here he is comparing them to the Irish:
The author of these memoirs [James Boswell] will remember, that Johnson one day asked him, 'Have you observed the difference between your own country impudence and Scottish impudence?' The answer being in the negative: 'Then I will tell you,' said Johnson. 'The impudence of an Irishman is the impudence of a fly, that buzzes about you, and you put it away, but it returns again, and flutters and teazes you. The impudence of a Scotsman is the impudence of a leech, that fixes and sucks your blood.'
Neil and Pork to take note.
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And in Scotland it'll be Whiskey Flavoured Malted Barleybix - the breakfast of champions!0
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Speaking of weird takes on food, apparently you can buy non-potato crisps (parsnip, carrot, etc). I tried a parsnip one (I dislike them raw, but love them roast)... it was peculiar. Unpleasant at first, but it slightly grew on me.0
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..or Rab C Nesbitt...0
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I feel an urge to google Johnson Scotland quotes...0
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Yes, these are lovely. You can even buy them in Lidl.Morris_Dancer said:Speaking of weird takes on food, apparently you can buy non-potato crisps (parsnip, carrot, etc). I tried a parsnip one (I dislike them raw, but love them roast)... it was peculiar. Unpleasant at first, but it slightly grew on me.
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Blimey! He was a big fan:
Scotland is a vile country, though God made it, but we must remember that he made it for Scotsmen, and comparisons are odious, but God also made Hell
Samuel Johnson
Oats: a grain which in England is generally given to a horse, but in Scotland it supports the people
Samuel Johnson
Scotsmen take all they can get - and a little more if they can
Scottish saying
The great thing about Glasgow now is that if there is a nuclear attack it'll look exactly the same afterwards
Billy Connolly
Much may be made of a Scotsman, if he is caught young
Samuel Johnson
The noblest prospect which a Scotman ever sees, is the high road that leads him to England
Samuel Johnson0 -
Mr. Patrick, I do think the Scots worthy of great praise for the delight that is whisky. Should I ever emerge from the dank cave of poverty and bask in the sunny hills of prosperity my tipple of choice would undoubtedly be whisky. Joe Abercrombie (fantasy author, very nearly as talented as myself) did a little series on his blog called Whisky Deathmatch which was quite entertaining.
http://www.joeabercrombie.com/category/whisky-deathmatch/0 -
Whoops - a Billy Connolly one in the middle there...0
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I've described the Lib Dems campaign there as "The Charge of the Light in the Head Brigade"Neil said:
They are wasting their time there. The results since 2010 have been horrific.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Lib Dems are fighting like hell, but deep down, I think they realise this seat is a gonner, their best hope is on the Tories voting tactically, but I don't think that's going to happen.0 -
I think you mean whiskey Mr Wifflestick.0
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Actually I like the Scots alot. I was at uni there and half my work colleagues are from Aberdeen (the rest being Dutch). And BTW the office referendum count is about 50/50.0
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..seems I have the Scottish / Irish spelling backwards...0
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Yet part of the needle of Boswell and Johnson is how Boswell was able to persuade Dr J up north and he was actually surprised, to put it very mildly, how nice it was and how civilised the locals were. I'm surprised some of his dinner hostesses didn't upend the soup tureen on his head!Patrick said:Blimey! He was a big fan:
Scotland is a vile country, though God made it, but we must remember that he made it for Scotsmen, and comparisons are odious, but God also made Hell
Samuel Johnson
Oats: a grain which in England is generally given to a horse, but in Scotland it supports the people
Samuel Johnson
Scotsmen take all they can get - and a little more if they can
Scottish saying
The great thing about Glasgow now is that if there is a nuclear attack it'll look exactly the same afterwards
Billy Connolly
Much may be made of a Scotsman, if he is caught young
Samuel Johnson
The noblest prospect which a Scotman ever sees, is the high road that leads him to England
Samuel Johnson
Billy Connolly has his own take on Dr J's crack about Scotland as a desert - the 1950s Glasgow housing estates being "deserts wi windaes" ...
0 -
Farage said he'd be worried if they got less than 10% and happy if the beat 15%.antifrank said:On topic (finally):
In absolute terms, this was a good result for UKIP from a standing start in a seat which was not their natural terrain. They beat my initial expectations.
However, they need to get better at expectations management, as I noted the other day.
Seems perfectly reasonable
You've been brainwashed by Smithson!0 -
@JohnRentoul: Betfair reports 80% chance that Scots will vote No to independence (not much change in last few days) http://t.co/6FfrsoqZwx0
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I'd ask for another zero, maybe two on that bet.david_herdson said:
The piece I wrote the other week envisioning Farage becoming PM was partly tongue-in-cheek but I do think that odds of 66/1 in current circumstances are about right. Maybe Wythenshawe should push that out to 100/1 but it remains at the outer edge of possible, requiring all three other parties to give the voters a reason not to back them, and for the new party to be credible and electorally effective. That's a big ask but as previous polls have shown, the three big Westminster parties have never been so unpopular so that's the first hurdle passed.0 -
Nah Clegg's got to be Curling. Everyone thinks he's heading left but some how he ends up on the right.Anorak said:
I can just imagine Eric wedged tightly between the walls on a particularly tight turn.state_go_away said:
which politicians for which Winter Olympic event?
Eric Pickles --luge
Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper - Ice dance (be warned though Bolero ends with both skaters falling down a big black hole)
Peter Mandleson - skeleton --very slippy
Alex Salmond - slopestyle -- has to pull off something insane to win!!(also presumably as a Scot he is at home with pipes and bars!)
Tony Blair - Biathlon - travelling across country then taking pot shots randomly
anymore?
Clegg - slalom - lurching to the left and then the right and then the left and then ... you get the idea.
Snow Cross reminds me of all the UKIP candidates. All heading god knows where and constantly taking each other out.
P.S. The idea of Pickles in a luge suit has totally ruined my appetite
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Expectations management is about more than what comes out of the leader's mouth. It's also about making sure the media don't overhype your chances. They're not very good at that, right now.isam said:
Farage said he'd be worried if they got less than 10% and happy if the beat 15%.antifrank said:On topic (finally):
In absolute terms, this was a good result for UKIP from a standing start in a seat which was not their natural terrain. They beat my initial expectations.
However, they need to get better at expectations management, as I noted the other day.
Seems perfectly reasonable
You've been brainwashed by Smithson!
Though not as bad as the SNP.0 -
Latrisha Jelen @LatrishaJelen 23m
I take it Rennard has blinked first and bottled it since his legal action 'deadline' appears to have come and gone.?
Lib Dem source: "hell will freeze over" before Chris Rennard resumes roles
If so that only leaves Clegg to worry about the small matter of his party becoming a complete irrelevance.0 -
Entirely possible that plenty of ex labour voters voted ukip in Wythenshawe...
Labour received 4700 votes less than 2010
Ukip received 2900 more
Lab bt Ukip by 16500 votes in 2010 and by 8900 this time
0 -
Have we heard from Mark Senior today?
I am beginning to get a little worried.0 -
That's not an ordinary bedpan, that's an NHS bedpan.Hugh said:Interesting little story
Former Marks and Spencer boss Sir Stuart Rose is to lead a review into how to improve management in the NHS in England.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26175151
Here is Sir Stuart Rose
http://www.bridgepoint.eu/en/our-team/sir-stuart-rose/
http://www.bridgepoint.eu/en/investment-portfolio/care-uk/0 -
Read the papers and the are saying UKIP push Tories into 3rd, as if it were unexpectedantifrank said:
Expectations management is about more than what comes out of the leader's mouth. It's also about making sure the media don't overhype your chances. They're not very good at that, right now.isam said:
Farage said he'd be worried if they got less than 10% and happy if the beat 15%.antifrank said:On topic (finally):
In absolute terms, this was a good result for UKIP from a standing start in a seat which was not their natural terrain. They beat my initial expectations.
However, they need to get better at expectations management, as I noted the other day.
Seems perfectly reasonable
You've been brainwashed by Smithson!
Though not as bad as the SNP.
0 -
Oops am I not allowed to reply to this fellow?Hugh said:Interesting little story
Former Marks and Spencer boss Sir Stuart Rose is to lead a review into how to improve management in the NHS in England.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26175151
Here is Sir Stuart Rose
http://www.bridgepoint.eu/en/our-team/sir-stuart-rose/
http://www.bridgepoint.eu/en/investment-portfolio/care-uk/0 -
Knighted by Labour?Jonathan said:
That's not an ordinary bedpan, that's an NHS bedpan.Hugh said:Interesting little story
Former Marks and Spencer boss Sir Stuart Rose is to lead a review into how to improve management in the NHS in England.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26175151
Here is Sir Stuart Rose
http://www.bridgepoint.eu/en/our-team/sir-stuart-rose/
http://www.bridgepoint.eu/en/investment-portfolio/care-uk/
0 -
At some point the Kippers are going to grasp the nettle (apologies @Mick) and you know, publish a manifesto.
What does the man on the Clapham Omnibus think? Out of the EU and something about fewer immigrants.
All well and good if that coincides with your view of those two issues (and poll after poll have shown that they aren't too important).
But we are talking here about 2nds or seats or vote percentages as though the kippers were a proper party.
They aren't. Yet.
If I were NFarage I would be working 24/7 on some boring but necessary policies which if nothing else will give breadth to his soundbites. Because if he thinks he can retain even 4% at GE2015 on the EU and immigrants he is hugely mistaken.
Of course that would put them in the "politicians" category thus destroying part of their appeal.0 -
Benighted by Labour.isam said:
Knighted by Labour?Jonathan said:
That's not an ordinary bedpan, that's an NHS bedpan.Hugh said:Interesting little story
Former Marks and Spencer boss Sir Stuart Rose is to lead a review into how to improve management in the NHS in England.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26175151
Here is Sir Stuart Rose
http://www.bridgepoint.eu/en/our-team/sir-stuart-rose/
http://www.bridgepoint.eu/en/investment-portfolio/care-uk/
0 -
For most soldiers and NCOs, the military hierarchy bore too close a resemblance to the class system. An army captain who had asked one of his sergeants how he was going to vote, received the reply: 'Socialist, sir, because I'm fed up with taking orders from ruddy officers.' When the votes were counted, it was clear that the armed forces had voted overwhelmingly for the Labour Party and for change. Churchill's greatest fault was to have shown no taste for social reform, during either the war or the [1945 election] campaign.AveryLP said:Wonderful scenes of organised flood defences on the news channels.
Gurkhas, marines and sailors all fighting for Britannia on the playing fields of Southern England under the cool, unflustered command of the officer class. Even Kay Burley is swooning at all the men in uniform.
Another example of Labour creating a mess which the Tories had to clean up.
As Maggie handbagged the hegemony of Eurocrats, so Dave is sandbagging the creeping socialism of the floods.
-- "The Second World War", Antony Beevor, Phoenix Books, 2013.0 -
I don't think you are supposed to eat parsnips raw @MorrisDancerMorris_Dancer said:Speaking of weird takes on food, apparently you can buy non-potato crisps (parsnip, carrot, etc). I tried a parsnip one (I dislike them raw, but love them roast)... it was peculiar. Unpleasant at first, but it slightly grew on me.
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Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?0
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Been busy so not sure if altready posted, but Populus today is
Lab 38 (+2), Con32 (-2), LD 9 (-2), UKIP 14 (+2), Others 8 (=).
Brings it back into line with other polls, but I find it hard to take Populus seriously, with thier sudden weighting change and their general tendency to bounce around when the others are largely stationary. A reason may be that they weight for projected turnout, which is more variable for most people tha allegiance - lots of voters might say "I'm sure I'll vote" one day and only "I'll probably vote" on another, which would hugely affect Populus while not affecting YG at all.0 -
Churchill's 'mistake' will not be repeated, Comrade Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
For most soldiers and NCOs, the military hierarchy bore too close a resemblance to the class system. An army captain who had asked one of his sergeants how he was going to vote, received the reply: 'Socialist, sir, because I'm fed up with taking orders from ruddy officers.' When the votes were counted, it was clear that the armed forces had voted overwhelmingly for the Labour Party and for change. Churchill's greatest fault was to have shown no taste for social reform, during either the war or the [1945 election] campaign.AveryLP said:Wonderful scenes of organised flood defences on the news channels.
Gurkhas, marines and sailors all fighting for Britannia on the playing fields of Southern England under the cool, unflustered command of the officer class. Even Kay Burley is swooning at all the men in uniform.
Another example of Labour creating a mess which the Tories had to clean up.
As Maggie handbagged the hegemony of Eurocrats, so Dave is sandbagging the creeping socialism of the floods.
-- "The Second World War", Antony Beevor, Phoenix Books, 2013.
The treasure Gove has listened to the people and revised his plans for the new History Curriculum in light of their 'negative feeback':
Winston Churchill is no longer named in the new draft. Five- to seven-year-olds will not have to learn about the Victorian poet Christina Rossetti, as suggested in the current draft, but instead could be told about the more modern figures of LS Lowry, Neil Armstrong, Tim Berners-Lee and Rosa Parks. Charles Darwin may feature in secondary school history lessons, while schools are to be given more scope to teach pupils about immigration and Islamic history.
You will be personally relieved to hear that:
Clive of India, described by Schama last month as a "sociopathic, corrupt thug" featuring in a curriculum which was like "1066 and All That, but without the jokes", appears to have been dropped.
Sgt. Gove will save us, Sunil, and become the toast of the Officers Mess.
0 -
Yes, we're off to watch Sleepless in Seattle at the cinema.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
And on that note, have fun everybody.
And if you're single
twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/4342798622376755210 -
Gold for Yarnold in the skeleton0
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Lovebombing Mick Pork.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
0 -
Been busy, only just seen the clip on the BBC website - Fair play to the princes.
Makes you proud to be British, sorry UKexScot.0 -
Season 2 of House of CardsTheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
0 -
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.0 -
Least they could do - two strapping lads. No different to many of the scoutsScrapheap_as_was said:Been busy, only just seen the clip on the BBC website - Fair play to the princes.
Makes you proud to be British, sorry UKexScot.
0 -
And they say the age of romance is dead...Hugh said:
Discussing climate change with Richard TyndallTheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
*swoon*
0 -
My missus has seen that one, oh, about 100 timesTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, we're off to watch Sleepless in Seattle at the cinema.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
And on that note, have fun everybody.
And if you're single
twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/434279862237675521
0 -
You old rogue AlanAlanbrooke said:
Lovebombing Mick Pork.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
0 -
I went to see 'her' on my jack jones!!! tonight going to the pub, and every girl will surely be single and looking for love?!?!antifrank said:
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
0 -
Oh - thanks for the reminder - now I wonder how many episodes I can get through before the missus complains?Scott_P said:
Season 2 of House of CardsTheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
0 -
I have been married/attached for so long I can't remember what Valentine's night in bars is like, particularly when it falls at the weekend. I can imagine it must be pretty fertile territory @isamisam said:
I went to see 'her' on my jack jones!!! tonight going to the pub, and every girl will surely be single and looking for love?!?!antifrank said:
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
Good luck.
0 -
Same here, and I really am gone, but before I go, here's my wholly inappropriate before the lagershed joke.TheLastBoyScout said:
My missus has seen that one, oh, about 100 timesTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, we're off to watch Sleepless in Seattle at the cinema.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
And on that note, have fun everybody.
And if you're single
twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/434279862237675521
I asked the wife what she wants for Valentines Day. She said, "I'll give you a clue. Ex-England goalie."
She thinks she's getting Flowers but instead she's getting [redacted]
0 -
If he is going to be that fussy take him here https://www.torturegarden.com/ I can almost guarantee he will never dare complain about your choices againantifrank said:
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
0 -
My restaurateur friends tell me that Valentine's day is the most dispiriting day of the year in a restaurant. A full house, and no one saying anything to each other.0
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Referee!TheScreamingEagles said:
Same here, and I really am gone, but before I go, here's my wholly inappropriate before the lagershed joke.TheLastBoyScout said:
My missus has seen that one, oh, about 100 timesTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, we're off to watch Sleepless in Seattle at the cinema.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
And on that note, have fun everybody.
And if you're single
twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/434279862237675521
I asked the wife what she wants for Valentines Day. She said, "I'll give you a clue. Ex-England goalie."
She thinks she's getting Flowers but instead she's getting [redacted]
0 -
-
Butland ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Same here, and I really am gone, but before I go, here's my wholly inappropriate before the lagershed joke.TheLastBoyScout said:
My missus has seen that one, oh, about 100 timesTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, we're off to watch Sleepless in Seattle at the cinema.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
And on that note, have fun everybody.
And if you're single
twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/434279862237675521
I asked the wife what she wants for Valentines Day. She said, "I'll give you a clue. Ex-England goalie."
She thinks she's getting Flowers but instead she's getting [redacted]0 -
Is that an advanced "Settlers of Catan" move ?Alanbrooke said:Gold for Yarnold in the skeleton
0 -
Woods?Alanbrooke said:
Butland ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Same here, and I really am gone, but before I go, here's my wholly inappropriate before the lagershed joke.TheLastBoyScout said:
My missus has seen that one, oh, about 100 timesTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, we're off to watch Sleepless in Seattle at the cinema.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
And on that note, have fun everybody.
And if you're single
twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/434279862237675521
I asked the wife what she wants for Valentines Day. She said, "I'll give you a clue. Ex-England goalie."
She thinks she's getting Flowers but instead she's getting [redacted]0 -
There's nothing inappropriate on Valentine's Day about Hart.0
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I'll happily bet you £50 at evens that UKIP exceeds 5% of the vote in the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) at the next general election.TOPPING said:At some point the Kippers are going to grasp the nettle (apologies @Mick) and you know, publish a manifesto.
What does the man on the Clapham Omnibus think? Out of the EU and something about fewer immigrants.
All well and good if that coincides with your view of those two issues (and poll after poll have shown that they aren't too important).
But we are talking here about 2nds or seats or vote percentages as though the kippers were a proper party.
They aren't. Yet.
If I were NFarage I would be working 24/7 on some boring but necessary policies which if nothing else will give breadth to his soundbites. Because if he thinks he can retain even 4% at GE2015 on the EU and immigrants he is hugely mistaken.
Of course that would put them in the "politicians" category thus destroying part of their appeal.0 -
ThanksHugh said:
Best of luck.isam said:
I went to see 'her' on my jack jones!!! tonight going to the pub, and every girl will surely be single and looking for love?!?!antifrank said:
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
If they're working class Labour voters just woo them with some UKIP policy chat, you'll bowl them over
x
All the girls round here are tory snobs, no one admits to being working class labour.. Im one of the most left wing people I know!
0 -
Oi! There's a queue!Sean_F said:
I'll happily bet you £50 at evens that UKIP exceeds 5% of the vote in the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) at the next general election.TOPPING said:At some point the Kippers are going to grasp the nettle (apologies @Mick) and you know, publish a manifesto.
What does the man on the Clapham Omnibus think? Out of the EU and something about fewer immigrants.
All well and good if that coincides with your view of those two issues (and poll after poll have shown that they aren't too important).
But we are talking here about 2nds or seats or vote percentages as though the kippers were a proper party.
They aren't. Yet.
If I were NFarage I would be working 24/7 on some boring but necessary policies which if nothing else will give breadth to his soundbites. Because if he thinks he can retain even 4% at GE2015 on the EU and immigrants he is hugely mistaken.
Of course that would put them in the "politicians" category thus destroying part of their appeal. 0 -
Surely Bill Rose or William Carr.TheLastBoyScout said:
Woods?Alanbrooke said:
Butland ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Same here, and I really am gone, but before I go, here's my wholly inappropriate before the lagershed joke.TheLastBoyScout said:
My missus has seen that one, oh, about 100 timesTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, we're off to watch Sleepless in Seattle at the cinema.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
And on that note, have fun everybody.
And if you're single
twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/434279862237675521
I asked the wife what she wants for Valentines Day. She said, "I'll give you a clue. Ex-England goalie."
She thinks she's getting Flowers but instead she's getting [redacted]
Other entries include Ditchburn, and Rimmer,0 -
isam said:
ThanksHugh said:
Best of luck.isam said:
I went to see 'her' on my jack jones!!! tonight going to the pub, and every girl will surely be single and looking for love?!?!antifrank said:
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.TheLastBoyScout said:Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
If they're working class Labour voters just woo them with some UKIP policy chat, you'll bowl them over
x
All the girls round here are tory snobs, no one admits to being working class labour.. Im one of the most left wing people I know!
Trying being a Lib Dem in a solid Labour seat
0 -
0.2% is still way too low Avery. I will be surprised if it ends up much below 2% which will indeed make a difference to the Q4 figure. Clearly the BoE thinks so if they are expecting growth of 3.4% this year. That is going to require a lot of momentum.AveryLP said:Some good news to relieve the gloom
The First Estimate of Q4 2013 GDP counter-intuitively reported a fall in Construction output of -0.3%. I stated at the time that this looked wrong and would be a candidate for future upward revision. DavidL made similar comments.
The ONS this morning released its report on Construction Output in December and Q4 2013. As anticipated the -0.3 has been revised upward and now stands at 0.2% growth:
The Preliminary Estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published on 28 January 2014 contained a forecast for quarterly construction output of minus 0.3%. This estimate has been revised within this release based on updated survey responses and is now estimated to have grown 0.2%, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage points.
The upward revision is not sufficient to change the headline GDP growth rate for Q4 which remains at 0.7% but does add upward pressure pending further detailed reviews of the individual sectors which make up the GDP Output metric.
Driving the figures upward was growth in residential housing construction which rose by 10.4% on an annual basis.
Although house building is rising rapidly, it is worth taking stock of where we stand today in relation to pre-crisis output:
The estimated annual volume of construction output in 2013 of £112.6 billion is 3.9% greater than the level recorded during the economic downturn in 2009. However, construction output remains 12.2% below its peak of £128.2 billion recorded in 2007.
There is some talk in the media of Q1 2014 growth being hit by the current floods. Replacement activity due to the destruction caused by natural crises can often boost economic output in the short term (what Ed Conway is calling "the broken window effect" on Sky), but this probably won't apply, at least in the short term, to the construction sector. We should therefore expect dampened ('ho, ho') Q1 output figures for Construction to be reversed during the spring and summer if or when the sun eventually decides to shine.
0 -
Like.Anorak said:
I can just imagine Eric wedged tightly between the walls on a particularly tight turn.state_go_away said:
which politicians for which Winter Olympic event?
Eric Pickles --luge
Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper - Ice dance (be warned though Bolero ends with both skaters falling down a big black hole)
Peter Mandleson - skeleton --very slippy
Alex Salmond - slopestyle -- has to pull off something insane to win!!(also presumably as a Scot he is at home with pipes and bars!)
Tony Blair - Biathlon - travelling across country then taking pot shots randomly
anymore?
Clegg - slalom - lurching to the left and then the right and then the left and then ... you get the idea.
0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
