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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency on track again
We’ve heard a lot from Nigel Farage and others Kippers in the past day or so about the difficulty of fighting what they describe as the “ruthless” Labour machine.
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Not that they covered themselves in glory in Wythenshawe and the cracks were definitely showing but if they can't handle the EU elections with any more aplomb then the fall after the EU elections will be that much harder and fester.
UKIP will move forward when they get an election with the right demographics for them to move forward in. There's nothing much they can do about this apart from a few things on the margins like jumping out from behind corners and shouting "Lesbians!" when they see Roger Gale.
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.
Against that, UKIP show up as a fourth party in a three-party system rather than a third party in a two-party system, which means given the right seat they can potentially win with a lower vote share. But that doesn't work in a by-election where only one of the three traditional parties is winning votes in the first place.
If they want to do better, they've got to take labour votes.
In other words, I don't think in organisational terms that they could have done much better. They chose a good candidate, as far as I can tell, and they did as much as they could in the short time available.
There is an interesting question about whether they pitched their campaign correctly, in going so directly for Labour. I don't have a good feel for that.
Telephone contact (actual cold calling) is better, and face to face contact is better again, but all contact increases turnout likelihood.
I remember there was a case made a while back that the government should fund a phone call to every voting household in the country at each GE to encourage them to vote, as a way to boost turnout.
I suspect the effect would be exaggerated in by-elections because there's less non-partisan air war (i.e. news coverage etc).
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.
Nonetheless if your big selling point is populist protest like the kippers then there is no excuse for not making damn sure you don't look bitter and overwhelmed when is doesn't all go to plan like in Wythenshawe.
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I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.
FPT:
MJW said:
I think the referring to UKIP as 'ex-BNPers' goes back to the point in 2009 where in parts of the country the BNP became the default angry anti-immigrant party and so swallowed up the votes of those relatively uninterested in politics apart from the endless stream of invective in certain newspapers.
I actually think it's a really good thing - despite disagreeing with UKIP profoundly and their being prone to the odd bit of scapegoating, they aren't a racist party and when at their best make a cogent argument for a legitimate political position that challenges the other political parties to make their own case. It's much better that those who just want to express anger and xenophobia vote for that than a bunch of fascists who want to stir up racial tension.
Yes, that's right - I don't even think Farage at least is especially xenophobic, merely isolationist and reactionary, neither of which is an especially aggressive philosophy. As right-wing populist parties go, we probably have the least bonkers one in Europe.
state_go_away said:
in politics as in general life ,people like being told the (sometimes) painful truth as long as its backed up with 'but this is what we can do about it ' (even if the target result is still not perfect).
...
On the other hand people do not like doomsayers who then say nothing can be done.
There's some acceptance too of being told that nothing can be done but it's not really doom. Our anti-snow railways policy is like that. I've found people will buy it: "We could heat our rails like the Swedes, but it's not worth it as we so rarely get heavy snow, so we don't. Now and again the system will seize up and we'll all be late for work. That's life."
antifrank said:
Greetings from a grey but dry Budapest. The general election campaign here is underway (the first round of elections is on 6 April).
Fidesz seems pretty much home and dry?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2014
But imagine you are a Labour (Or Lib Dem) voter in either Louth or Thanet North and a by election comes along... you know that UKIP are going to come at least 2nd... you could continue to vote Labour or switch to UKIP creating huge momentum for UKIP and a severe dent to CON if UKIP takes the seat.
A tempting tactical prospect, even though the vote goes against everything you believe in - some might go for it.
There's currently a poll running on the 'General Discussion' section of Digital Spy regarding whether the Scots should be allowed to keep the pound,
Currently, with 239 votes, it's 86.19% to No...
Which is interesting (although voodoo yadda yadda).
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1941467&page=13
I wonder if YouGov etc will be looking at this over the weekend, as I said, if there's a YES vote, things like this will become a huge electoral issue for the 2015 GE.
They should have taken a leaf out of the SDP's book.
Warrington 1981, Jenkins, a near miss
Crosby 1981, Williams, an earthquake
Hillhead 1982, Jenkins wins in unpromising territory, despite dirty tricks (the other Roy Jenkins)
Farage should have stood in Eastleigh, Nuttall in Wythenshawe. The media circus following them would probably have been worth another 5,000 votes, and the bandwagon effect would probably have seen them home...
As you said, Cameron's been lucky with his MPs.. they seem to be a bit hardier than labour MPs for some reason.
What you are in effect saying is 'in order for us to prosper, things will first have to be really, really bad'.
Conservative Home criticising weak, 'pedestrian' Tory campaign in Wythenshawe: http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/02/no-one-expected-a-tory-victory-in-wythenshawe-but-thats-no-excuse-for-such-a-pedestrian-campaign.html …
Don't think that was why the kippers beat them somehow. It didn't help but the tories problems with the kippers are just a bit deeper than that.
If as expected Labour get back in and people are reminded about how rubbish they are then you'll start to see them picking up by-election victories.
As it is though they've made some amazing progress the last few years.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/indonesia/10637722/200000-told-to-evacuate-as-Indonesias-Mount-Kelud-erupts.html
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Grrr.
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Given they are unlikely to win more than maybe 3 seats with the very best of best nights and they could well poll ~ 14% - Surely that must almost by default lead to alot of 2nds...
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@LadPolitics: Ladbrokes release Manchester Withington odds for General Election.
1/10 Labour
5/1 Lib Dems
Before my tie but weren't the Alliance (not SDP) polling about 50% at one point?
A by-election is a god-given opportunity for media attention and creating a bandwagon.
Farage has no political skills.
Looks like UKIP have bottled it and blown it, so far as Westminster seats are concerned...
The Alliance hit 50% in December 1981. With Eastleigh under their belt UKIP might have done the same in December 2013...
1906, 1918, 1924, 1931, 1945, 1970 and 1997 (probably among others) were all elections which moved more than at least some influential people expected. Reading Chris Mullin's diaries, many Labour MPs and activists expected no more than a modest majority, for example.
UKIP does have the potential to throw an almighty spanner in the electoral works. They may fizzle, they may draw votes close to equally and make little difference - or they may have a very significant impact, either directly or indirectly.
One lesson to draw from Wythenshawe is that none of the parties particularly enthused the electorate, either positively for themselves or as a conduit for negative/protest voting against the others. A sub-30% turnout is poor and points to the potential for breakthrough if someone can motivate and mobilise the disaffected.
Maximising council seat gains, on the coat-tails of a good performance in the Euros, will be critical. Last year, UKIP were able to win 6% of the seats being contested on a national equivalent vote share of 22%. Even if they did no better this year, that would net them another 250 council seats or so.
If you take GE2010 as your starting point, and assume that the Tory vote drops uniformly by 7.5pts, the Lab vote rises by 5pts, the LD vote drops by 5pts in seats that they hold, and drops by 75% in seats that they don't hold, and UKIP increases by 10pts uniformly then UKIP would get no 1st places and about 130 2nd places.
I will vote tory of course at the general elections
I'm pretty confident the kipper VI will go up. I'm just surprised we've not really seen much sign of it yet. Obviously there's still a good few months for it to do so. Perhaps the rise before the May local elections last year was slightly misleading as that was more gradual than any rise now appears to be panning out. Nonetheless surely the misery of the floods are a prime opportunity for a party with a strong protest element to make headway? We'll see as there could still be changes yet to feed through into VI. Of course. That's the major difference between this and other EU election results for the kippers. There is unmistakably progress in base building going on to lock in a far more durable and healthier VI level than the 3.1% for 2010. That's working already and I still see no prospect whatsoever of the kippers going back to their 2010 level in 2015. It's also the reason why tory backbenchers had better get used to the kippers outflanking them at every turn because they certainly aren't going to vanish after 2015 unless some major catastrophe befalls Farage and his party.
I doubt if UKIP will do better than coming third, in terms of projected national vote share, in the local elections. I hope that they can match their 22% vote share from 2013.
"The Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 requires the campaign to last a minimum of 25 days (not including weekends and public holidays) from the writ being moved to polling day. The previous minimum was 17 days."
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2013/6/contents/enacted
In retrospect, UKIP's mistake in Eastbourne wasn't choosing the wrong candidate, it was not working the constituency, when a by-election had been known to be possible for ages beforehand.