At some point the Kippers are going to grasp the nettle (apologies @Mick) and you know, publish a manifesto.
What does the man on the Clapham Omnibus think? Out of the EU and something about fewer immigrants.
All well and good if that coincides with your view of those two issues (and poll after poll have shown that they aren't too important).
But we are talking here about 2nds or seats or vote percentages as though the kippers were a proper party.
They aren't. Yet.
If I were NFarage I would be working 24/7 on some boring but necessary policies which if nothing else will give breadth to his soundbites. Because if he thinks he can retain even 4% at GE2015 on the EU and immigrants he is hugely mistaken.
Of course that would put them in the "politicians" category thus destroying part of their appeal.
I'll happily bet you £50 at evens that UKIP exceeds 5% of the vote in the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) at the next general election.
Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
I went to see 'her' on my jack jones!!! tonight going to the pub, and every girl will surely be single and looking for love?!?!
Best of luck.
If they're working class Labour voters just woo them with some UKIP policy chat, you'll bowl them over
x
Thanks
All the girls round here are tory snobs, no one admits to being working class labour.. Im one of the most left wing people I know!
Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
I went to see 'her' on my jack jones!!! tonight going to the pub, and every girl will surely be single and looking for love?!?!
Best of luck.
If they're working class Labour voters just woo them with some UKIP policy chat, you'll bowl them over
x
Thanks
All the girls round here are tory snobs, no one admits to being working class labour.. Im one of the most left wing people I know!
Trying being a Lib Dem in a solid Labour seat
Are we still doing dirty jokes?
Is that an oblique reference to a former MP for Winchester?
Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
I went to see 'her' on my jack jones!!! tonight going to the pub, and every girl will surely be single and looking for love?!?!
Best of luck.
If they're working class Labour voters just woo them with some UKIP policy chat, you'll bowl them over
x
Thanks
All the girls round here are tory snobs, no one admits to being working class labour.. Im one of the most left wing people I know!
Trying being a Lib Dem in a solid Labour seat
Are we still doing dirty jokes?
Is that an oblique reference to a former MP for Winchester?
In my first year at Uni, I dated a girl who introduced herself as being a card-carrying member of the young Tories. She told me this before she told me her name. I wasn't sure if she thought it would attract people, or she wanted to get rid of me. She was also the first girl I'd ever seen neck a pint of bitter in one go.
A great gal. Last time I saw her she was working as a checkout girl in an Asda ...
If there are any fans of 80s synth out there who've never listened to Alphaville's debut 1984 album Forever Love, I'd strongly recommend it. You almost certainly won't be disappointed:
An insurgent party needs to be moving forward all the time. The big lesson from Wythenshawe is that UKIP have stalled a touch.
How has it stalled? UKIP added 15% to its vote share and received a swing from Labour of 1.5%. Not only that UKIP have increased their vote share in every by-election in England during this Parliament. The Liberal Democrats have never achieved such a feat although the Alliance did manage something similar between 1983-1987.
Of course the Alliance featured the leaders of the breakaway group from Labour and the leaders of the Liberals so there starting profile was significanty higher than UKIPs with its base in already elected Westminster politicians.
Anyone else seen the film "Her"? I watched it today.. kind of interesting
I haven't but it sounds a bit like a mix of the 80s film "Electric Dreams", where a man's computer falls in love with his beautiful neighbour. It led to this great Sheffield-based song; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE1lzqJCeJ0
If you knew some of the people I work with, falling in love with an OS is not to hard to believe. A mate once wrote a love letter for his (non-Geek) wife in ARM code. She still hasn't decoded it ...
An insurgent party needs to be moving forward all the time. The big lesson from Wythenshawe is that UKIP have stalled a touch.
How has it stalled? UKIP added 15% to its vote share and received a swing from Labour of 1.5%. Not only that UKIP have increased their vote share in every by-election in England during this Parliament. The Liberal Democrats have never achieved such a feat although the Alliance did manage something similar between 1983-1987.
Of course the Alliance featured the leaders of the breakaway group from Labour and the leaders of the Liberals so there starting profile was significanty higher than UKIPs with its base in already elected Westminster politicians.
Its all a diversion from the LD failings. Desperate stuff
Would be like Moyes saying Everton have stalled a bit recently
Anyone else seen the film "Her"? I watched it today.. kind of interesting
I haven't but it sounds a bit like a mix of the 80s film "Electric Dreams", where a man's computer falls in love with his beautiful neighbour. It led to this great Sheffield-based song; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE1lzqJCeJ0
If you knew some of the people I work with, falling in love with an OS is not to hard to believe. A mate once wrote a love letter for his (non-Geek) wife in ARM code. She still hasn't decoded it ...
Together In Electric Dreams is a great song, love it.
Havent seen that film, but the premise seems similar
An insurgent party needs to be moving forward all the time. The big lesson from Wythenshawe is that UKIP have stalled a touch.
How has it stalled? UKIP added 15% to its vote share and received a swing from Labour of 1.5%. Not only that UKIP have increased their vote share in every by-election in England during this Parliament. The Liberal Democrats have never achieved such a feat although the Alliance did manage something similar between 1983-1987.
Of course the Alliance featured the leaders of the breakaway group from Labour and the leaders of the Liberals so there starting profile was significanty higher than UKIPs with its base in already elected Westminster politicians.
Its all a diversion from the LD failings. Desperate stuff
Would be like Moyes saying Everton have stalled a bit recently
Or even Wenger the Whinger claiming that Managers who play down their expectations are afraid of defeat.
The Libdems must be 'dropping their deposits' all over the place today. Their collective vote from all four Northern seats listed above was less than what UKIP polled last night.
Anyone else seen the film "Her"? I watched it today.. kind of interesting
I haven't but it sounds a bit like a mix of the 80s film "Electric Dreams", where a man's computer falls in love with his beautiful neighbour. It led to this great Sheffield-based song;
And the Kate Bush song 'Deeper Understanding'.
If you knew some of the people I work with, falling in love with an OS is not to hard to believe. A mate once wrote a love letter for his (non-Geek) wife in ARM code. She still hasn't decoded it ...
Together In Electric Dreams is a great song, love it.
Havent seen that film, but the premise seems similar
Together in Electric Dreams is an absolute classic song. The film isn't too bad for an 80's romance film, although it's only got 40% on RottenTomatoes. It's worth hiring or downloading, just for the kitsch value.
Sillars said the SNP must have a Plan B. He added: “If they haven’t got one, they need to find one. We have to be able to provide an answer on what the currency is going to be.
"The SNP leadership seem to have a bunker mentality in which no means maybe when it is no, no, no from the three major parties in England. The position that five million people in Scotland can impose a currency union on 55million people in England borders on believing in fairies.”
Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
I went to see 'her' on my jack jones!!! tonight going to the pub, and every girl will surely be single and looking for love?!?!
Best of luck.
If they're working class Labour voters just woo them with some UKIP policy chat, you'll bowl them over
x
Thanks
All the girls round here are tory snobs, no one admits to being working class labour.. Im one of the most left wing people I know!
Trying being a Lib Dem in a solid Labour seat
May be you could be a "rescue" case... let them show you the error of your ways, etc ;-)
(I managed to find the only Republican Californian...)
Anyone else seen the film "Her"? I watched it today.. kind of interesting
That's my 'Valentine treat' at the weekend. Mark Kermode was pretty positive about it, though he said it lacked emotion. Which you'd expect, given what it's about.
Is anyone planning anything for their Valentine this evening?
I'm in trouble because my other half couldn't decide where he wanted to eat tonight, and when I finally forced him to focus on this, every good restaurant in Budapest was (unsurprisingly) booked up. This is apparently my fault.
We're eating in tonight.
I also got told off for buying theatre tickets as a Valentine's present. Apparently he was wanting to save that particular show for his birthday present.
Sometimes, you just can't win.
I went to see 'her' on my jack jones!!! tonight going to the pub, and every girl will surely be single and looking for love?!?!
Best of luck.
If they're working class Labour voters just woo them with some UKIP policy chat, you'll bowl them over
x
Thanks
All the girls round here are tory snobs, no one admits to being working class labour.. Im one of the most left wing people I know!
Trying being a Lib Dem in a solid Labour seat
May be you could be a "rescue" case... let them show you the error of your ways, etc ;-)
(I managed to find the only Republican Californian...)
That's not an ordinary bedpan, that's an NHS bedpan.
Knighted by Labour?
Benighted by Labour.
But very charming, with a great fondness for utterly filthy limericks.
He actually managed to shock my wife last time she sat next to him at dinner.
Yes, Charles, a man with impeccable manners. A family friend who had worked in the M&S Chairman's Office long before Rose's reign (and not personally known to him) was undergoing cancer treatment and nothing was too much trouble. Not just M&S looking after its pensioners (which it always does well) but hand written notes, cards, flowers, telephone calls and even a visit in person. The patient was not particularly senior at M&S and Sir S. had nothing to gain from his support. Just plain good manners and heart.
I still say UKIP should be praying for Mike Hancock to be forced to quit, because I really think Portsmouth could be a perfect storm for them. A coastal town which has had longterm decline because of British people going abroad for holidays rather than to seaside resorts here. Quite a working-class population (thus disgusted with Tory toffs stroking the bellies of millionaires), but one which traditionally doesn't have much of a trade-union history or much of a metropolitan outlook (thus hostile to Labour), plus the local Lib Dems mired in scandal. Throw in the recent closure of the shipyard too, and I'd be racing to put a bet on them snatching that seat.
Together in Electric Dreams is an absolute classic song. The film isn't too bad for an 80's romance film, although it's only got 40% on RottenTomatoes. It's worth hiring or downloading, just for the kitsch value.
Thanks for the link, great song - plot of the video almost comprehensible...
Retweeted by Richard Palmer UKIP Ben Cooper @BenCooper86 1h This statement from the Dutch government is remarkable, how can the British government look flood victims in the eye? pic.twitter.com/BgyHX6Dvcn Embedded image permalink
Whatever one may think, Cammo is going to suffer from these flood events
Retweeted by Richard Palmer UKIP Ben Cooper @BenCooper86 1h This statement from the Dutch government is remarkable, how can the British government look flood victims in the eye? pic.twitter.com/BgyHX6Dvcn Embedded image permalink
Whatever one may think, Cammo is going to suffer from these flood events
MikeK, for someone who claims to have lived through the Blitz, you show a sad lack in the bulldog spirit. Buck up, old boy.
At some point the Kippers are going to grasp the nettle (apologies @Mick) and you know, publish a manifesto.
What does the man on the Clapham Omnibus think? Out of the EU and something about fewer immigrants.
All well and good if that coincides with your view of those two issues (and poll after poll have shown that they aren't too important).
But we are talking here about 2nds or seats or vote percentages as though the kippers were a proper party.
They aren't. Yet.
If I were NFarage I would be working 24/7 on some boring but necessary policies which if nothing else will give breadth to his soundbites. Because if he thinks he can retain even 4% at GE2015 on the EU and immigrants he is hugely mistaken.
Of course that would put them in the "politicians" category thus destroying part of their appeal.
I'll happily bet you £50 at evens that UKIP exceeds 5% of the vote in the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) at the next general election.
Oi! There's a queue!
haha gentlemen please.
As I have said many times on this site (@Sam bit my hand off last time I estimated the UKIP likely vote), I don't bet individually for several reasons with PB-ers. So as two of those reasons concern the amounts and duration, we will have to be satisfied with waiting and seeing.
Of course as I have also said, I am actually betting my entire net worth on my political views and beliefs as the outcome of GE2015 will affect me as will it affect all of us and our various levels of wealth.
Retweeted by Richard Palmer UKIP Ben Cooper @BenCooper86 1h This statement from the Dutch government is remarkable, how can the British government look flood victims in the eye? pic.twitter.com/BgyHX6Dvcn Embedded image permalink
Whatever one may think, Cammo is going to suffer from these flood events
MikeK, for someone who claims to have lived through the Blitz, you show a sad lack in the bulldog spirit. Buck up, old boy.
My dear Moniker, I have plenty of spirit, but I'm very sure that there is not much of that spirit in today's society. The population of this land have unfortunately got so used to state benefits the the majority lack the will to use their own initiative . Oh I'm sure there are plenty of exceptions, but in this case exceptions do not prove the rule.
Retweeted by Richard Palmer UKIP Ben Cooper @BenCooper86 1h This statement from the Dutch government is remarkable, how can the British government look flood victims in the eye? pic.twitter.com/BgyHX6Dvcn Embedded image permalink
Whatever one may think, Cammo is going to suffer from these flood events
MikeK, for someone who claims to have lived through the Blitz, you show a sad lack in the bulldog spirit. Buck up, old boy.
My dear Moniker, I have plenty of spirit, but I'm very sure that there is not much of that spirit in today's society. The population of this land have unfortunately got so used to state benefits the the majority lack the will to use their own initiative . Oh I'm sure there are plenty of exceptions, but in this case exceptions do not prove the rule.
You should set an example. It'll be a sad day when UKIP adopts the victim mentality.
Retweeted by Richard Palmer UKIP Ben Cooper @BenCooper86 1h This statement from the Dutch government is remarkable, how can the British government look flood victims in the eye? pic.twitter.com/BgyHX6Dvcn Embedded image permalink
Whatever one may think, Cammo is going to suffer from these flood events
Not sure what UKIP's particular issue with psotal voting in this contest, but I agree entirely it should be limited to those genuinely unable to make it to a polling station. Being bone idle is not an excuse.
Nominal Labour supporters who might have been 8/10 certainty to vote Labour back when Labour were on their side might be 6/10 certainty to vote now and maybe as little as 4/10 certainty back in 2010. What postal votes do is give Labour a method of nudging them to 10/10 certainty by knocking up and asking if they want someone to post their vote for them.
The reason this is potentially a big deal in places like Wythenshawe is the level of hopelessness, apathy and anomie that has been created over the last 30 years means without postal votes Labour would be very vulnerable to low turnout losses.
Without postal votes and all the Con votes switching this could have been very close. Not convincingly or meanignfully close cos the turnout would have been even lower but close.
I think myself,the past 3/4 days,the government have done a good job on the floods crisis(I might be wrong because I'm not living in a flooded area and not going through what these poor people have suffered),it seems a military command structure as taken over.
Would a labour government done any better in some of the worst weather southern England as ever seen ?
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
Retweeted by Richard Palmer UKIP Ben Cooper @BenCooper86 1h This statement from the Dutch government is remarkable, how can the British government look flood victims in the eye? pic.twitter.com/BgyHX6Dvcn Embedded image permalink
Whatever one may think, Cammo is going to suffer from these flood events
MikeK, for someone who claims to have lived through the Blitz, you show a sad lack in the bulldog spirit. Buck up, old boy.
My dear Moniker, I have plenty of spirit, but I'm very sure that there is not much of that spirit in today's society. The population of this land have unfortunately got so used to state benefits the the majority lack the will to use their own initiative . Oh I'm sure there are plenty of exceptions, but in this case exceptions do not prove the rule.
The DE part of the population has had 30 years of being hammered into the ground. Ukip need to be walking in towards the C1/C2/B range imo.
edit: effectively it's the American definition of middle-class
Retweeted by Richard Palmer UKIP Ben Cooper @BenCooper86 1h This statement from the Dutch government is remarkable, how can the British government look flood victims in the eye? pic.twitter.com/BgyHX6Dvcn Embedded image permalink
Whatever one may think, Cammo is going to suffer from these flood events
MikeK, for someone who claims to have lived through the Blitz, you show a sad lack in the bulldog spirit. Buck up, old boy.
My dear Moniker, I have plenty of spirit, but I'm very sure that there is not much of that spirit in today's society. The population of this land have unfortunately got so used to state benefits the the majority lack the will to use their own initiative . Oh I'm sure there are plenty of exceptions, but in this case exceptions do not prove the rule.
You should set an example. It'll be a sad day when UKIP adopts the victim mentality.
Oh very droll. Perhaps you yourself need a bit of of the blitz spirit and stop whining at anything with a UKIP label. But perhaps you can't help yourself. Whenever the name UKIP flashes up, its like a red rag to a bull with you failing Tories.
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
Danny, UKIP made huge gains into a rotten Labour borough. I doubt they'll be discouraged.
The leader of the Catholic Church in England and Wales has labelled the government's social reform a "disgrace" for leaving people facing "destitution".
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
Despite all the rather excess speculation I doubt very much that UKIP were ever going to direct any serious resources at the socialist republic of Manchester in 2015 or similar Labour strongholds.
The problem for Labour is the type of seats UKIP will be targetting in the south would previously have been Labour targets (e.g. Kent Coastal towns). Furthermore, UKIP may cause problems for Labour in their remaining southern seats and potentially let the Tories take some of them by splitting the floating vote (which is seems generally anti-Labour in the south outside London).
Whats clear is it ain't all going to be about UKIP denying Tories seats. Its going to be about restricting Labours options for gains as well.
Labour's support and sheer efficiency has frightened the opponents. It was a smooth operation. The oppo's don't know what that means. Rennard could have matched it but he has local difficulties !
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
Danny, UKIP made huge gains into a rotten Labour borough. I doubt they'll be discouraged.
No, Danny is right. The net swing Lab to UKIP was 1.7% (i.e. the Lab vote went up almost as much as UKIP's). Given that UKIP are starting from next to nothing, that's useless to them in terms of getting into close contention in any Labour-held parliamentary seats.
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
Danny, UKIP made huge gains into a rotten Labour borough. I doubt they'll be discouraged.
No, Danny is right. The net swing Lab to UKIP was 1.7% (i.e. the Lab vote went up almost as much as UKIP's). Given that UKIP are starting from next to nothing, that's useless to them in terms of getting into close contention in any Labour-held parliamentary seats.
Only if you are talking about the 2015 general election and does anyone seriously think UKIP are going to challenge Labour in their heartlands when Labour are leading in the polls and being in opposition will not be blamed for the shortcomings of the Government? Its not a credible concept.
Why Labour are running around like headless chickens trying to prove the obvious is bizarre.
Labour's support and sheer efficiency has frightened the opponents. It was a smooth operation. The oppo's don't know what that means. Rennard could have matched it but he has local difficulties !
29% turnout in a Labour controlled slum. That isn't democracy, it's apathetic despair.
Labour's support and sheer efficiency has frightened the opponents. It was a smooth operation. The oppo's don't know what that means. Rennard could have matched it but he has local difficulties !
The tories could if they got they act together,like this from yesterday local elections.
Labour's support and sheer efficiency has frightened the opponents. It was a smooth operation. The oppo's don't know what that means. Rennard could have matched it but he has local difficulties !
29% turnout in a Labour controlled slum. That isn't democracy, it's apathetic despair.
If apathy were a party then Labour would be down to 16 seats
Who cares? Why apathy is our REAL election winner 13 Feb 2014 13:03
As voters head to the polls in Wythenshawe and Sale East, new research shows that if 'apathy' were a party, it would win our general elections by a landslide
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
Danny, UKIP made huge gains into a rotten Labour borough. I doubt they'll be discouraged.
No, Danny is right. The net swing Lab to UKIP was 1.7% (i.e. the Lab vote went up almost as much as UKIP's). Given that UKIP are starting from next to nothing, that's useless to them in terms of getting into close contention in any Labour-held parliamentary seats.
some maybe, not any
What they need is (imo) - almost all the pre-existing Con vote - all the economic swing voter part of the ex LD vote - either a more favorable C2 vs DE split or larger numbers of bitter ex-Labour
Labour's support and sheer efficiency has frightened the opponents. It was a smooth operation. The oppo's don't know what that means. Rennard could have matched it but he has local difficulties !
29% turnout in a Labour controlled slum. That isn't democracy, it's apathetic despair.
If apathy were a party then Labour would be down to 16 seats
Who cares? Why apathy is our REAL election winner 13 Feb 2014 13:03
As voters head to the polls in Wythenshawe and Sale East, new research shows that if 'apathy' were a party, it would win our general elections by a landslide
The suggestion would be that in safe seats, people aren't apathetic per se, but know there's little point to adding their vote to a large winning pile.
'Labour's support and sheer efficiency has frightened the opponents. It was a smooth operation. The oppo's don't know what that means. Rennard could have matched it but he has local difficulties !'
Labour in opposition win safe Labour seat in by-election, awesome.
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
UKIP's 2015 target seats will be dictated by the results of the 2013 and 2014 local elections.
So far it's looking very Tory. But that could change.
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
Despite all the rather excess speculation I doubt very much that UKIP were ever going to direct any serious resources at the socialist republic of Manchester in 2015 or similar Labour strongholds.
The problem for Labour is the type of seats UKIP will be targetting in the south would previously have been Labour targets (e.g. Kent Coastal towns). Furthermore, UKIP may cause problems for Labour in their remaining southern seats and potentially let the Tories take some of them by splitting the floating vote (which is seems generally anti-Labour in the south outside London).
Whats clear is it ain't all going to be about UKIP denying Tories seats. Its going to be about restricting Labours options for gains as well.
I actually agree with most of that. Even though UKIP have zero chance of taking any seats Labour currently hold, you're right, they could leapfrog Labour in some southern seats that are currently held by the Tories, so will be a potential problem for Labour in that sense. (Though I would point out Labour don't actually NEED to win the type of seats you're talking about; if they were to gain any seats in Kent then that would be landslide territory.)
But my main point was that this is undoubtedly bad news for the Conservatives, because last night's result confirms that, in seats they're defending, they're going to face full firepower from two parties. Considering the Tories need to not just hold all the seats they currently have but also pick up some, that's far from ideal for them.
Labour's support and sheer efficiency has frightened the opponents. It was a smooth operation. The oppo's don't know what that means. Rennard could have matched it but he has local difficulties !
29% turnout in a Labour controlled slum. That isn't democracy, it's apathetic despair.
If apathy were a party then Labour would be down to 16 seats
Who cares? Why apathy is our REAL election winner 13 Feb 2014 13:03
As voters head to the polls in Wythenshawe and Sale East, new research shows that if 'apathy' were a party, it would win our general elections by a landslide
The suggestion would be that in safe seats, people aren't apathetic per se, but know there's little point to adding their vote to a large winning pile.
Perhaps or not bothering to turnout when they know their side will not win or indeed none of the parties fulfil their expectations. . You can put many interpretations on why they do not turn out. Its just fun in putting in terms which leave Labour with just 16 seats!
Mr. 2013, it's an absolute ****ing disgraceful position to hold. The whole language of 'deniers' is despicable (and unscientific), but this is another level of zealotry.
Burn the heretics! [Being sure to plant sufficient trees afterward to make it a carbon neutral affair].
That's quite a frightening level of zealotry. What's @Neil position on this. I think that humanity does have an impact on the climate, but the extent is very difficult to tell and too often the politics gets confused with the science on both sides of the debate.
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
I actually agree with most of that. Even though UKIP have zero chance of taking any seats Labour currently hold, you're right, they could leapfrog Labour in some southern seats that are currently held by the Tories, so will be a potential problem for Labour in that sense. (Though I would point out Labour don't actually NEED to win the type of seats you're talking about; if they were to gain any seats in Kent then that would be landslide territory.)
But my main point was that this is undoubtedly bad news for the Conservatives, because last night's result confirms that, in seats they're defending, they're going to face full firepower from two parties. Considering the Tories need to not just hold all the seats they currently have but also pick up some, that's far from ideal for them.
Hmmm in 2005 which was hardly a landslide scenario Labour held Dover, Thanet South, Chatham, Sittingbourne, Gillingham & Dartford. In fact they held more Kent Coastal seats than the Tories. Of course they lost them all in 2010 and I doubt if they fail to win any of them back that they will have much of a majority. They can still win a majority but they will have to compensate elsewhere.
As for facing the full power of two parties down here in the south I suspect the tories are starting to wonder if there is only one power other than the Tories and that is UKIP. Labour are doing almost as poorly in the south as the Tories are in the north. As for Miliband's one nation mantra that is just risible!
@PeteWishart: This week West'er underestimated the Scottish people. We'll not be 'telt' and we will not be bullied. They'll soon see that in opinion polls
@PeteWishart: This week West'er underestimated the Scottish people. We'll not be 'telt' and we will not be bullied. They'll soon see that in opinion polls
Why does "Gimp" Wishart presume to speak for the Scottish people? The arrogance of these West'er politicians knows no bounds.
My first thought was that it's encouraging for the Lib Dems.
Given that they're undoubtedly going to be all-but-abandoning any seat where they're third or otherwise out of contention and pouring their resources into their held seats and a handful of carefully chosen targets, they need for those latter seats to have their vote decrease by less than the average around the country (the national swing).
This mathematically requires that the abandoned seats decrease by more than the average, in order for the numbers to balance.
The decrease was by 17.4%, compared to 10-14% for the average according to the polls. Which implies that in other seats, the damage to the Lib Dems is less than the average.
As an example, if the Lib Dems drop by 14% on average (from 24% to 10%) and in the 500 worst seats for them, they drop by an average of 17.4% (which, of course, is difficult in seats where they hold under 17.4% of the vote to start with, but this is as an example for the maths), the drop in the remaining 132 mainland seats would have to be an average of only 0.9%.
Essentially, the Lib Dems have got to hope for a metric shit-load of lost deposits next time around. This would correspond to their best chances of retaining as much as possible of what they've currently got.
Eric Pickles --luge Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper - Ice dance (be warned though Bolero ends with both skaters falling down a big black hole) Peter Mandleson - skeleton --very slippy Alex Salmond - slopestyle -- has to pull off something insane to win!!(also presumably as a Scot he is at home with pipes and bars!) Tony Blair - Biathlon - travelling across country then taking pot shots randomly
anymore?
I can just imagine Eric wedged tightly between the walls on a particularly tight turn.
Clegg - slalom - lurching to the left and then the right and then the left and then ... you get the idea.
Actually Clegg is probably the only one who would be any good. He was a ski instructor in his younger days.
Worth remembering that no one is electing a Government when they vote in a Westminster by election. Labour regained the two seats they lost to the SNP and the Libdems in by elections in Scotland while the Conservatives held onto both their by elections gains at the 2010 GE. Both the SNP and UKIP and their supporters need to factor this into their expectation management at the next GE, will their far closer more successful links to Holyrood or the EU Parliament work against them rather than in their favour at the next GE?
@PeteWishart: This week West'er underestimated the Scottish people. We'll not be 'telt' and we will not be bullied. They'll soon see that in opinion polls
Off topic but just been to an interesting football match = 5th round of the FA Youth Cup between Huddersfield Town and Manchester United. Both Alec Ferguson and Bobby Charlton were there. The result : 2-1 to Huddersfield and it could have been 4 or 5. Moyes the next manager out?
@PeteWishart: This week West'er underestimated the Scottish people. We'll not be 'telt' and we will not be bullied. They'll soon see that in opinion polls
Off topic but just been to an interesting football match = 5th round of the FA Youth Cup between Huddersfield Town and Manchester United. Both Alec Ferguson and Bobby Charlton were there. The result : 2-1 to Huddersfield and it could have been 4 or 5. Moyes the next manager out?
My first thought was that it's encouraging for the Lib Dems.
Given that they're undoubtedly going to be all-but-abandoning any seat where they're third or otherwise out of contention and pouring their resources into their held seats and a handful of carefully chosen targets, they need for those latter seats to have their vote decrease by less than the average around the country (the national swing).
This mathematically requires that the abandoned seats decrease by more than the average, in order for the numbers to balance.
The decrease was by 17.4%, compared to 10-14% for the average according to the polls. Which implies that in other seats, the damage to the Lib Dems is less than the average.
As an example, if the Lib Dems drop by 14% on average (from 24% to 10%) and in the 500 worst seats for them, they drop by an average of 17.4% (which, of course, is difficult in seats where they hold under 17.4% of the vote to start with, but this is as an example for the maths), the drop in the remaining 132 mainland seats would have to be an average of only 0.9%.
Essentially, the Lib Dems have got to hope for a metric shit-load of lost deposits next time around. This would correspond to their best chances of retaining as much as possible of what they've currently got.
The problem with this theory is that, in a lot of seats, the Lib Dems dropping 17% is impossible because they didn't get 17% in 2010 to start off with - so that bumps up the average fall in their vote in seats they hold in order to square the national fall in their vote.
Even though they probably will hold up somewhat better in seats they hold, I would say even in those seats they're facing a drop of atleast 8-10%, unless the incumbent is exceptionally popular. That kind of drop would be enough to for them to lose virtually all the Lib-Lab battles -- and even if their task in Lib-Tory marginals will be a bit easier due to the Tories likely falling back, I don't think some people (including the LDs themselves) appreciate just how thin some of their majorities over the Tories are, and that all it will take is the Tories to fall a few % points less than the Lib Dems in order for those seats to be toppled.
The one crumb of comfort the Lib Dems can take is that I think the Tories may well have damaged their standing in the southwest, after their disastrous "if you're a rich south-easterner then money is no object, but everyone else is less important than the deficit".
Bluff, bluster and bullying – nobody is better qualified to recognise these commodities than Alex Salmond and if he wants to see them personified he need only look in the political mirror.
On the two biggest issues affecting jobs, savings and pensions – EU membership and the currency – Salmond has cynically sought to mislead the people of Scotland, using exactly the tactics of which he now complains. Bluff, bluster and bullying. Heaven help the dissenter who questioned his groundless assertions.
The “legal advice” on which he based his claims about an entitlement to remain in the EU never existed – a prolonged deception which should not be forgiven or forgotten. By the same token, there has never been a shred of evidence to support his central contention that a currency union would be acceptable to the state from which he wants to separate.
I think the real significance of last night's byelection is the implications it will have on the 2015 "ground war". Getting so trounced has probably convinced UKIP that it's futile wasting resources on Labour seats, atleast for now. So that means they'll probably be throwing almost all of their resources at southern Tory seats. In turn, the fact UKIP probably won't bother giving Labour much of a fight means Labour can also afford to take all the seats they hold for granted and also focus all THEIR resources on Tory seats too. So the Tories will probably be facing heavy fire on both fronts, and will only have a depleted and disillusioned activist base themselves to try and ward them off.
Danny, UKIP made huge gains into a rotten Labour borough. I doubt they'll be discouraged.
No, Danny is right. The net swing Lab to UKIP was 1.7% (i.e. the Lab vote went up almost as much as UKIP's). Given that UKIP are starting from next to nothing, that's useless to them in terms of getting into close contention in any Labour-held parliamentary seats.
some maybe, not any
What they need is (imo) - almost all the pre-existing Con vote - all the economic swing voter part of the ex LD vote - either a more favorable C2 vs DE split or larger numbers of bitter ex-Labour
No, I stand by my point that a 1.7% swing Lab to UKIP is useless to UKIP in terms of getting into contention in any Lab held parliamentary seat.
Take the Lab held seat where UKIP had its highest share in in 2010 - Dudley North, on 8.5%. That was still 30.2% behind Lab. After a 1.7% swing UKIP would still be 26.8% behind.
Indeed he was, Pete Wishart on keyboards at the Runrig Loch Lomond gig back at the height of their popularity. YouTube - RUNRIG HEARTHAMMER http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYVfXpKycFg
@PeteWishart: This week West'er underestimated the Scottish people. We'll not be 'telt' and we will not be bullied. They'll soon see that in opinion polls
Comments
I wouldn't dream of talking about politics to a girl in a pub, but you could be right
I did once try to convert a girl to the Lib Dems in a nightclub.
A great gal. Last time I saw her she was working as a checkout girl in an Asda ...
Always works*
*Might not work if you're Brian Coleman.
If there are any fans of 80s synth out there who've never listened to Alphaville's debut 1984 album Forever Love, I'd strongly recommend it. You almost certainly won't be disappointed:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO6Y14Y-MKk&
How has it stalled? UKIP added 15% to its vote share and received a swing from Labour of 1.5%. Not only that UKIP have increased their vote share in every by-election in England during this Parliament. The Liberal Democrats have never achieved such a feat although the Alliance did manage something similar between 1983-1987.
Of course the Alliance featured the leaders of the breakaway group from Labour and the leaders of the Liberals so there starting profile was significanty higher than UKIPs with its base in already elected Westminster politicians.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE1lzqJCeJ0
And the Kate Bush song 'Deeper Understanding'.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzqF_gBpS84
If you knew some of the people I work with, falling in love with an OS is not to hard to believe. A mate once wrote a love letter for his (non-Geek) wife in ARM code. She still hasn't decoded it ...
Would be like Moyes saying Everton have stalled a bit recently
Havent seen that film, but the premise seems similar
Did you see Coleman's pen portraits of his former council colleagues? His blog is a guilty pleasure like our Jayne's was.
I should add, the striker must have no sense of smell.
The Libdems must be 'dropping their deposits' all over the place today. Their collective vote from all four Northern seats listed above was less than what UKIP polled last night.
The film isn't too bad for an 80's romance film, although it's only got 40% on RottenTomatoes. It's worth hiring or downloading, just for the kitsch value.
He actually managed to shock my wife last time she sat next to him at dinner.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/pressure-grows-alex-salmond-after-3143575
Sillars said the SNP must have a Plan B. He added: “If they haven’t got one, they need to find one. We have to be able to provide an answer on what the currency is going to be.
"The SNP leadership seem to have a bunker mentality in which no means maybe when it is no, no, no from the three major parties in England. The position that five million people in Scotland can impose a currency union on 55million people in England borders on believing in fairies.”
(I managed to find the only Republican Californian...)
See para 4.
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/lords/?gid=2013-04-10a.1167.0
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/26200035
Ben Cooper @BenCooper86 1h
This statement from the Dutch government is remarkable, how can the British government look flood victims in the eye? pic.twitter.com/BgyHX6Dvcn
Embedded image permalink
Whatever one may think, Cammo is going to suffer from these flood events
redacted: A Scots born clown? James Leighton perchance...?
How does Peter Barlow get all these women?
As I have said many times on this site (@Sam bit my hand off last time I estimated the UKIP likely vote), I don't bet individually for several reasons with PB-ers. So as two of those reasons concern the amounts and duration, we will have to be satisfied with waiting and seeing.
Of course as I have also said, I am actually betting my entire net worth on my political views and beliefs as the outcome of GE2015 will affect me as will it affect all of us and our various levels of wealth.
Would be great to see him and Nuttall bowl into the room doing a version of this
"Hey Nigel, this ones feeling like a straight 10 on the richter scale y'know"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0fk6syQ7iY
I thought there were already Dutch pumping machines in Somerset?
" Nominal Labour supporters who might have been 8/10 certainty to vote Labour back when Labour were on their side might be 6/10 certainty to vote now and maybe as little as 4/10 certainty back in 2010. What postal votes do is give Labour a method of nudging them to 10/10 certainty by knocking up and asking if they want someone to post their vote for them.
The reason this is potentially a big deal in places like Wythenshawe is the level of hopelessness, apathy and anomie that has been created over the last 30 years means without postal votes Labour would be very vulnerable to low turnout losses.
Without postal votes and all the Con votes switching this could have been very close. Not convincingly or meanignfully close cos the turnout would have been even lower but close.
I think myself,the past 3/4 days,the government have done a good job on the floods crisis(I might be wrong because I'm not living in a flooded area and not going through what these poor people have suffered),it seems a military command structure as taken over.
Would a labour government done any better in some of the worst weather southern England as ever seen ?
edit: effectively it's the American definition of middle-class
The leader of the Catholic Church in England and Wales has labelled the government's social reform a "disgrace" for leaving people facing "destitution".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26200157
I think it's a disgrace that this man brings this up now,when this country is going through a crisis.
The problem for Labour is the type of seats UKIP will be targetting in the south would previously have been Labour targets (e.g. Kent Coastal towns). Furthermore, UKIP may cause problems for Labour in their remaining southern seats and potentially let the Tories take some of them by splitting the floating vote (which is seems generally anti-Labour in the south outside London).
Whats clear is it ain't all going to be about UKIP denying Tories seats. Its going to be about restricting Labours options for gains as well.
Why Labour are running around like headless chickens trying to prove the obvious is bizarre.
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2014/02/council-by-election-result-from-yesterday-7.html
Who cares? Why apathy is our REAL election winner
13 Feb 2014 13:03
As voters head to the polls in Wythenshawe and Sale East, new research shows that if 'apathy' were a party, it would win our general elections by a landslide
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/apathy-biggest-party-manchester-elections-6705898
Evening Nick, you must be feeling extremely pleased with last night's result.
Bodes well for yourself in Broxtowe
Still a bit of a wait until the second test gets underway (19th). Be glad when it starts, so we can see how much progress Renault have made.
What they need is (imo)
- almost all the pre-existing Con vote
- all the economic swing voter part of the ex LD vote
- either a more favorable C2 vs DE split or larger numbers of bitter ex-Labour
The suggestion would be that in safe seats, people aren't apathetic per se, but know there's little point to adding their vote to a large winning pile.
'Labour's support and sheer efficiency has frightened the opponents. It was a smooth operation. The oppo's don't know what that means. Rennard could have matched it but he has local difficulties !'
Labour in opposition win safe Labour seat in by-election, awesome.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26187711
Burn the heretics! [Being sure to plant sufficient trees afterward to make it a carbon neutral affair].
So far it's looking very Tory. But that could change.
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
But my main point was that this is undoubtedly bad news for the Conservatives, because last night's result confirms that, in seats they're defending, they're going to face full firepower from two parties. Considering the Tories need to not just hold all the seats they currently have but also pick up some, that's far from ideal for them.
As for facing the full power of two parties down here in the south I suspect the tories are starting to wonder if there is only one power other than the Tories and that is UKIP. Labour are doing almost as poorly in the south as the Tories are in the north. As for Miliband's one nation mantra that is just risible!
Given that they're undoubtedly going to be all-but-abandoning any seat where they're third or otherwise out of contention and pouring their resources into their held seats and a handful of carefully chosen targets, they need for those latter seats to have their vote decrease by less than the average around the country (the national swing).
This mathematically requires that the abandoned seats decrease by more than the average, in order for the numbers to balance.
The decrease was by 17.4%, compared to 10-14% for the average according to the polls. Which implies that in other seats, the damage to the Lib Dems is less than the average.
As an example, if the Lib Dems drop by 14% on average (from 24% to 10%) and in the 500 worst seats for them, they drop by an average of 17.4% (which, of course, is difficult in seats where they hold under 17.4% of the vote to start with, but this is as an example for the maths), the drop in the remaining 132 mainland seats would have to be an average of only 0.9%.
Essentially, the Lib Dems have got to hope for a metric shit-load of lost deposits next time around. This would correspond to their best chances of retaining as much as possible of what they've currently got.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NWjGtEmQ5Co
Fitalass' Tune.
Even though they probably will hold up somewhat better in seats they hold, I would say even in those seats they're facing a drop of atleast 8-10%, unless the incumbent is exceptionally popular. That kind of drop would be enough to for them to lose virtually all the Lib-Lab battles -- and even if their task in Lib-Tory marginals will be a bit easier due to the Tories likely falling back, I don't think some people (including the LDs themselves) appreciate just how thin some of their majorities over the Tories are, and that all it will take is the Tories to fall a few % points less than the Lib Dems in order for those seats to be toppled.
The one crumb of comfort the Lib Dems can take is that I think the Tories may well have damaged their standing in the southwest, after their disastrous "if you're a rich south-easterner then money is no object, but everyone else is less important than the deficit".
Take the Lab held seat where UKIP had its highest share in in 2010 - Dudley North, on 8.5%. That was still 30.2% behind Lab. After a 1.7% swing UKIP would still be 26.8% behind.
I suppose it's a separatist argument that some of us have got to the point that we'd rather discuss Thailand...
YouTube - RUNRIG HEARTHAMMER
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYVfXpKycFg