politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency
We’ve heard a lot from Nigel Farage and others Kippers in the past day or so about the difficulty of fighting what they describe as the “ruthless” Labour machine.
Comments
-
By-elections are a bonus for a protest party. You can't rely on them whereas you can rely an a big set of locals and the likes of the EU elections. Kippers need to start getting their VI up for the May EU elections since if they don't then that will be far more telling than one by-election
Not that they covered themselves in glory in Wythenshawe and the cracks were definitely showing but if they can't handle the EU elections with any more aplomb then the fall after the EU elections will be that much harder and fester.0 -
I'm not sure that Lab have worked out how to fight UKIP in particular - it's just that they don't really need to fight UKIP, because at least under a Conservative government, UKIP pull mostly from the Conservatives, and in some protest-vote-heavy places from the LibDems.
UKIP will move forward when they get an election with the right demographics for them to move forward in. There's nothing much they can do about this apart from a few things on the margins like jumping out from behind corners and shouting "Lesbians!" when they see Roger Gale.0 -
This analysis assumes that UKIP should up its vote in every by-election, regardless of the dynamics of the constituency. The reality is that getting 15%+ in elections is major momentum on where they came last time, even though all the Lib Dems are panicked about their own survival so are desperately trying to paint UKIP as doing badly.0
-
The Cons should set Mark Carney on Ukip - he seems to be the most effective opposition dismantling operator they have.0
-
I'm not sure comparisons with the Lib Dems are that reasonable. The Lib Dems/Liberals were often in 2nd place in seats and established as the main challenger, surely? So in a Tory area, when people were unhappy with the government and wanted a protest vote, the Lib Dems were the obvious place to go. It would take a herculian effort and a pretty shambolic one from Labour for them to win Labour seats. A by election in a tory seat ok any kind would be interesting.0
-
"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.0 -
Right, and it's also much easier to pull this one off from the centre where you can snaffle votes from both sides.FrankBooth said:I'm not sure comparisons with the Lib Dems are that reasonable. The Lib Dems/Liberals were often in 2nd place in seats and established as the main challenger, surely? So in a Tory area, when people were unhappy with the government and wanted a protest vote, the Lib Dems were the obvious place to go. It would take a herculian effort and a pretty shambolic one from Labour for them to win Labour seats. A by election in a tory seat ok any kind would be interesting.
Against that, UKIP show up as a fourth party in a three-party system rather than a third party in a two-party system, which means given the right seat they can potentially win with a lower vote share. But that doesn't work in a by-election where only one of the three traditional parties is winning votes in the first place.0 -
I think UKIP have taken most of the tory votes they are going to take, especially with the economy performing strongly.
If they want to do better, they've got to take labour votes.0 -
I think Mike is being a bit unfair on UKIP's election organisational skills here. This was a by-election in a Labour fiefdom seat where UKIP had little presence, and where they had few nearby areas of strength. In addition, the timetable was deliberately kept as short as it possibly could be, and the untimely death of Paul Goggins came without warning. To be ready to mount a slick 'postal operation of their own' in such circumstances is asking a lot.
In other words, I don't think in organisational terms that they could have done much better. They chose a good candidate, as far as I can tell, and they did as much as they could in the short time available.
There is an interesting question about whether they pitched their campaign correctly, in going so directly for Labour. I don't have a good feel for that.0 -
Mike you have presented these bars chronologically. Try presenting them geographically - from west to east. UKIP heartlands will be the disaffected Danelaw plus Kent.0
-
In terms of getting voters to turnout, there's a lot of good academic evidence that voter contacts increases it.HurstLlama said:"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.
Telephone contact (actual cold calling) is better, and face to face contact is better again, but all contact increases turnout likelihood.
I remember there was a case made a while back that the government should fund a phone call to every voting household in the country at each GE to encourage them to vote, as a way to boost turnout.
I suspect the effect would be exaggerated in by-elections because there's less non-partisan air war (i.e. news coverage etc).
0 -
I can't say I've ever had a party activist knock on my door.HurstLlama said:"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.0 -
Louth and Horncastle is probably statistically speaking UKIP's best chance of a by election victory this parliament.edmundintokyo said:I'm not sure that Lab have worked out how to fight UKIP in particular - it's just that they don't really need to fight UKIP, because at least under a Conservative government, UKIP pull mostly from the Conservatives, and in some protest-vote-heavy places from the LibDems.
UKIP will move forward when they get an election with the right demographics for them to move forward in. There's nothing much they can do about this apart from a few things on the margins like jumping out from behind corners and shouting "Lesbians!" when they see Roger Gale.0 -
I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
Or wise. The lib dems lost their deposit in their worst by-election result since 1945. Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners are so out of touch with reality they really do think if they close their eyes hard enough nobody will notice. Whatever they were in the past under Clegg the lib dems are the complete opposite of "by-election kings". Unless those kings like losing deposits.FrankBooth said:I'm not sure comparisons with the Lib Dems are that reasonable.
Of course and you then factor in that the kippers rise was reasonably quick. Not as swift as the lib dems plunge to flatline at 10% in 2010 but still not anything like the time any so called 'by-election kings' have had to build up their machine and activist base. That time is also nothing compared to how long safe seats have usually been safe.FrankBooth said:So in a Tory area, when people were unhappy with the government and wanted a protest vote, the Lib Dems were the obvious place to go. It would take a herculian effort and a pretty shambolic one from Labour for them to win Labour seats.
Nonetheless if your big selling point is populist protest like the kippers then there is no excuse for not making damn sure you don't look bitter and overwhelmed when is doesn't all go to plan like in Wythenshawe.
0 -
Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.
0 -
But you wouldn't think a Lib Dem seat would be prime Ukip territory either. Cameron has been fortunate not to face more by elections in his own backyard since 2010. Is Corby the only one?Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
I think I was the first to spot the UKIP peaking in one of my canvassing reports here - like having focus groups three times a week, talking to a few hundred people a week does help pick up changes in the wind, even though it's hard not to hear what you want to hear.
FPT:
MJW said:
I think the referring to UKIP as 'ex-BNPers' goes back to the point in 2009 where in parts of the country the BNP became the default angry anti-immigrant party and so swallowed up the votes of those relatively uninterested in politics apart from the endless stream of invective in certain newspapers.
I actually think it's a really good thing - despite disagreeing with UKIP profoundly and their being prone to the odd bit of scapegoating, they aren't a racist party and when at their best make a cogent argument for a legitimate political position that challenges the other political parties to make their own case. It's much better that those who just want to express anger and xenophobia vote for that than a bunch of fascists who want to stir up racial tension.
Yes, that's right - I don't even think Farage at least is especially xenophobic, merely isolationist and reactionary, neither of which is an especially aggressive philosophy. As right-wing populist parties go, we probably have the least bonkers one in Europe.
state_go_away said:
in politics as in general life ,people like being told the (sometimes) painful truth as long as its backed up with 'but this is what we can do about it ' (even if the target result is still not perfect).
...
On the other hand people do not like doomsayers who then say nothing can be done.
There's some acceptance too of being told that nothing can be done but it's not really doom. Our anti-snow railways policy is like that. I've found people will buy it: "We could heat our rails like the Swedes, but it's not worth it as we so rarely get heavy snow, so we don't. Now and again the system will seize up and we'll all be late for work. That's life."
antifrank said:
Greetings from a grey but dry Budapest. The general election campaign here is underway (the first round of elections is on 6 April).
Fidesz seems pretty much home and dry?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_20140 -
There was no incentive for Labour voters to vote anything other than Labour here.taffys said:I think UKIP have taken most of the tory votes they are going to take, especially with the economy performing strongly.
If they want to do better, they've got to take labour votes.
But imagine you are a Labour (Or Lib Dem) voter in either Louth or Thanet North and a by election comes along... you know that UKIP are going to come at least 2nd... you could continue to vote Labour or switch to UKIP creating huge momentum for UKIP and a severe dent to CON if UKIP takes the seat.
A tempting tactical prospect, even though the vote goes against everything you believe in - some might go for it.0 -
Cameron is indeed fortunate to have escaped the by-election spotlight. FWIW I am pretty familiar with Eastleigh and would say it is actually a natural target for UKIP.FrankBooth said:
But you wouldn't think a Lib Dem seat would be prime Ukip territory either. Cameron has been fortunate not to face more by elections in his own backyard since 2010. Is Corby the only one?Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
*Voodoo Poll alert:*
There's currently a poll running on the 'General Discussion' section of Digital Spy regarding whether the Scots should be allowed to keep the pound,
Currently, with 239 votes, it's 86.19% to No...
Which is interesting (although voodoo yadda yadda).
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1941467&page=13
I wonder if YouGov etc will be looking at this over the weekend, as I said, if there's a YES vote, things like this will become a huge electoral issue for the 2015 GE.0 -
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
They don't deserve to win seats if they are more-or-less a one man band who's scared to fight a seat.
They should have taken a leaf out of the SDP's book.
Warrington 1981, Jenkins, a near miss
Crosby 1981, Williams, an earthquake
Hillhead 1982, Jenkins wins in unpromising territory, despite dirty tricks (the other Roy Jenkins)
Farage should have stood in Eastleigh, Nuttall in Wythenshawe. The media circus following them would probably have been worth another 5,000 votes, and the bandwagon effect would probably have seen them home...0 -
Eastleigh has clearly been UKIP's best chance so far, and they've done pretty well there, if not well enough (and of course the lib dems knew that that by-election was possible for a while, unlike one due to a sudden death..).Jonathan said:
Cameron is indeed fortunate to have escaped the by-election spotlight. FWIW I am pretty familiar with Eastleigh and would say it is actually a natural target for UKIP.FrankBooth said:
But you wouldn't think a Lib Dem seat would be prime Ukip territory either. Cameron has been fortunate not to face more by elections in his own backyard since 2010. Is Corby the only one?Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.
As you said, Cameron's been lucky with his MPs.. they seem to be a bit hardier than labour MPs for some reason.0 -
Presumably you have checked with your HR that it is a genuine email - it may seem patronising to ask, but I have recently very nearly been caught out by a recent phishing email which looked extremely authentic in the particular context of my work, and it was a slight incongruity like yours that alerted me (I think they had copied a genuine email for the format and sent it to a number of employees of the organization whose emails they had trawled off the net or the website).Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.
0 -
If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go?
What you are in effect saying is 'in order for us to prosper, things will first have to be really, really bad'.
0 -
Jennifer Williams @JenWilliamsMEN 37m
Conservative Home criticising weak, 'pedestrian' Tory campaign in Wythenshawe: http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/02/no-one-expected-a-tory-victory-in-wythenshawe-but-thats-no-excuse-for-such-a-pedestrian-campaign.html …
Don't think that was why the kippers beat them somehow. It didn't help but the tories problems with the kippers are just a bit deeper than that.0 -
UKIP need to get some support from Labour to really get anywhere, which I can't see this side of the next general election.
If as expected Labour get back in and people are reminded about how rubbish they are then you'll start to see them picking up by-election victories.
As it is though they've made some amazing progress the last few years.0 -
Very public-spirited of the spammers. When HR send something genuine everyone will think it's phishing. It's like a DDoS on stupid shit.Carnyx said:
Presumably you have checked with your HR that it is a genuine email - it may seem patronising to ask, but I have recently very nearly been caught out by a recent phishing email which looked extremely authentic in the particular context of my work, and it was a slight incongruity like yours that alerted me (I think they had copied a genuine email for the format and sent it to a number of employees of the organization whose emails they had trawled off the net or the website).Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.0 -
I don't think there are restrictions on who can require a basic CRB check.Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.
0 -
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
OT We may think we have it bad here right now but as always nature always pops up somewhere else to remind us how relatively lucky we are.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/indonesia/10637722/200000-told-to-evacuate-as-Indonesias-Mount-Kelud-erupts.html0 -
Small business, so I know the individual who sent it. Looking at the message headers it's definitely from an internal company address. Weighing up the pros and cons of kicking up a fuss - for now I've just asked what the "compliance reasons" are.Carnyx said:
Presumably you have checked with your HR that it is a genuine email - it may seem patronising to ask, but I have recently very nearly been caught out by a recent phishing email which looked extremely authentic in the particular context of my work, and it was a slight incongruity like yours that alerted me (I think they had copied a genuine email for the format and sent it to a number of employees of the organization whose emails they had trawled off the net or the website).Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.0 -
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
Ok. Still irritated though. I mean, I can see the merits of doing it during the recruitment process, but after 8 years. FFS.RobD said:
I don't think there are restrictions on who can require a basic CRB check.Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.
[And thanks for responding]0 -
The ones I used to get tend to pretend to be from IT but the recent ones have been pretending to be, not so much from the same organization, but from an important related outside agency which cannot easily be ignored!edmundintokyo said:
Very public-spirited of the spammers. When HR send something genuine everyone will think it's phishing. It's like a DDoS on stupid shit.Carnyx said:
Presumably you have checked with your HR that it is a genuine email - it may seem patronising to ask, but I have recently very nearly been caught out by a recent phishing email which looked extremely authentic in the particular context of my work, and it was a slight incongruity like yours that alerted me (I think they had copied a genuine email for the format and sent it to a number of employees of the organization whose emails they had trawled off the net or the website).Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.
0 -
I thought it was possible to fake the headers in an email, but someone who knows better than I do should comment...Anorak said:
Small business, so I know the individual who sent it. Looking at the message headers it's definitely from an internal company address. Weighing up the pros and cons of kicking up a fuss - for now I've just asked what the "compliance reasons" are.Carnyx said:
Presumably you have checked with your HR that it is a genuine email - it may seem patronising to ask, but I have recently very nearly been caught out by a recent phishing email which looked extremely authentic in the particular context of my work, and it was a slight incongruity like yours that alerted me (I think they had copied a genuine email for the format and sent it to a number of employees of the organization whose emails they had trawled off the net or the website).Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.0 -
Deploy the Pickles immediately!Richard_Tyndall said:OT We may think we have it bad here right now but as always nature always pops up somewhere else to remind us how relatively lucky we are.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/indonesia/10637722/200000-told-to-evacuate-as-Indonesias-Mount-Kelud-erupts.html
0 -
@Anorak It does seem odd.
"An employer must not apply for a check unless the job or role is eligible for one. They must tell the applicant why they’re being checked, and where they can get independent advice.
A DBS check has no official expiry date. Any information included will be accurate at the time the check was carried out. It is up to an employer to decide if and when a new check is needed."
https://www.gov.uk/disclosure-barring-service-check/overview0 -
can you dredge volcanoes?Mick_Pork said:
Deploy the Pickles immediately!Richard_Tyndall said:OT We may think we have it bad here right now but as always nature always pops up somewhere else to remind us how relatively lucky we are.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/indonesia/10637722/200000-told-to-evacuate-as-Indonesias-Mount-Kelud-erupts.html0 -
Depends on the type of constituency you're in of course, and the particular area.FrankBooth said:
I can't say I've ever had a party activist knock on my door.HurstLlama said:"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.0 -
"They must tell the applicant why they’re being checked, and where they can get independent advice."dr_spyn said:@Anorak It does seem odd.
"An employer must not apply for a check unless the job or role is eligible for one. They must tell the applicant why they’re being checked, and where they can get independent advice.
A DBS check has no official expiry date. Any information included will be accurate at the time the check was carried out. It is up to an employer to decide if and when a new check is needed."
https://www.gov.uk/disclosure-barring-service-check/overview
Grrr.0 -
Oh, that's fine. My commiserations though - seems very odd.Anorak said:
Small business, so I know the individual who sent it. Looking at the message headers it's definitely from an internal company address. Weighing up the pros and cons of kicking up a fuss - for now I've just asked what the "compliance reasons" are.Carnyx said:
Presumably you have checked with your HR that it is a genuine email - it may seem patronising to ask, but I have recently very nearly been caught out by a recent phishing email which looked extremely authentic in the particular context of my work, and it was a slight incongruity like yours that alerted me (I think they had copied a genuine email for the format and sent it to a number of employees of the organization whose emails they had trawled off the net or the website).Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.
0 -
HR departments love CRB checks. Means huge loads of paperwork and slight power trips . I am not sure they are that effective (and may cause complacency) I mean Jimmy Saville would have passed one wouldn't he?0
-
The Pickles is a multi-purpose disaster relief solution. Sandbag, floatation device, semi-mobile shelter, even filling in craters may not be beyond it's utility.state_go_away said:
can you dredge volcanoes?Mick_Pork said:
Deploy the Pickles immediately!Richard_Tyndall said:OT We may think we have it bad here right now but as always nature always pops up somewhere else to remind us how relatively lucky we are.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/indonesia/10637722/200000-told-to-evacuate-as-Indonesias-Mount-Kelud-erupts.html
0 -
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
15-20 second places ?! It'll be more than that...state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
I'd agree with that. All in all, it was a respectable result for UKIP - perhaps a little short of expectations in vote share (and, given turnout, even more so in actual votes), but second place made up for that. They had very little time to organise and still beat the Conservatives and trounced the Lib Dems, who both took roughly a quarter of the vote each in 2010.Richard_Nabavi said:I think Mike is being a bit unfair on UKIP's election organisational skills here. This was a by-election in a Labour fiefdom seat where UKIP had little presence, and where they had few nearby areas of strength. In addition, the timetable was deliberately kept as short as it possibly could be, and the untimely death of Paul Goggins came without warning. To be ready to mount a slick 'postal operation of their own' in such circumstances is asking a lot.
In other words, I don't think in organisational terms that they could have done much better. They chose a good candidate, as far as I can tell, and they did as much as they could in the short time available.
There is an interesting question about whether they pitched their campaign correctly, in going so directly for Labour. I don't have a good feel for that.0 -
How many do you think they will get ?antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.
Given they are unlikely to win more than maybe 3 seats with the very best of best nights and they could well poll ~ 14% - Surely that must almost by default lead to alot of 2nds...0 -
I don't think they will end up with more than about 8% of the vote -think that will translate into about that number (maybe 15-30 then!!) . Farage may well win a seat if he picks right.Pulpstar said:
15-20 second places ?! It'll be more than that...state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
UKIP to get less than 10 second places at the General Election ?!antifrank said:
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
You probably have a point about Farage and Eastbourne but it shouldn't be ignored that the SDP were not a new party in the sense that UKIP is: they had plenty of current and former MPs as well as support staff and activists who were well-versed in winning elections. UKIP, despite some defections, is starting from a much lower experience base.RodCrosby said:They don't deserve to win seats if they are more-or-less a one man band who's scared to fight a seat.
They should have taken a leaf out of the SDP's book.
Warrington 1981, Jenkins, a near miss
Crosby 1981, Williams, an earthquake
Hillhead 1982, Jenkins wins in unpromising territory, despite dirty tricks (the other Roy Jenkins)
Farage should have stood in Eastleigh, Nuttall in Wythenshawe. The media circus following them would probably have been worth another 5,000 votes, and the bandwagon effect would probably have seen them home...0 -
Things never change at general elections as much as you think they will. The Lib Dems looked neck and neck with the big two last time in opinion polls, but got less than the previous election in the end.Pulpstar said:
15-20 second places ?! It'll be more than that...state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
I'll very happily buy at a pound/2nd place over 10.5 if you honestly mean that.antifrank said:
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.
0 -
Mr. Anorak, I suggest you deploy the HurstLlama tactic No.1. - delete the email and forget you ever read it. If you really need to do what HR have asked for they will come knocking, but most likely you'll never hear anything about it again.Anorak said:
Ok. Still irritated though. I mean, I can see the merits of doing it during the recruitment process, but after 8 years. FFS.RobD said:
I don't think there are restrictions on who can require a basic CRB check.Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.
[And thanks for responding]
If you work for a large organisation any email from a "support department" should be deleted unread unless, from its title, it relates to something you are currently interested in.
0 -
If you fancy a 10% return in 15 months time
@LadPolitics: Ladbrokes release Manchester Withington odds for General Election.
1/10 Labour
5/1 Lib Dems0 -
Now that is sound adviceHurstLlama said:
Mr. Anorak, I suggest you deploy the HurstLlama tactic No.1. - delete the email and forget you ever read it. If you really need to do what HR have asked for they will come knocking, but most likely you'll never hear anything about it again.Anorak said:
Ok. Still irritated though. I mean, I can see the merits of doing it during the recruitment process, but after 8 years. FFS.RobD said:
I don't think there are restrictions on who can require a basic CRB check.Anorak said:Afternoon. I have a question relating to Criminal Record Checks (DBS as they are now). I've worked at my current employer for 8 years, and have just got an email which states:
"During a recent CRB audit on all UK employees, we have identified that either your CRB certificate has expired, is about to expire or hasn’t been conducted. I will be sending a HireRight link to your email and I ask that you complete it as soon as possible.
Your cooperation in this matter will be greatly appreciated as we need CRB certification on record due to compliance reasons."
I work in a boutique management consultancy. No interaction with kids or vulnerable groups, ever (it's mostly transactional due-diligence). Do they have a right to do this? I'll do it if absolutely necessary, but this sort of intrusive HR shit really rankles.
[And thanks for responding]
If you work for a large organisation any email from a "support department" should be deleted unread unless, from its title, it relates to something you are currently interested in.
0 -
That's right. I don't regard that as a particularly outlandish thing to say. Given that we can ignore Scotland, northern Ireland and Wales for this purpose, that Labour and the Conservatives will be first and second in the great bulk of seats, that the Lib Dems will be concentrating their efforts in those seats where they're competitive and UKIP will be spread very thinly with little experience of elections, I'd have thought 10 second places would be a pretty good result for UKIP.Pulpstar said:
UKIP to get less than 10 second places at the General Election ?!antifrank said:
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
Has Pulpstar hit upon the most unknown variable (UKIP second places ) since Sporting index did total wides at that cricket world cup (where SI and myself were the only people short of an avalanche of buyers)?0
-
Farage has decided to focus on te Europeans. I think he wants a Tory seat but time may be running out between now and the election.david_herdson said:
You probably have a point about Farage and Eastbourne but it shouldn't be ignored that the SDP were not a new party in the sense that UKIP is: they had plenty of current and former MPs as well as support staff and activists who were well-versed in winning elections. UKIP, despite some defections, is starting from a much lower experience base.RodCrosby said:They don't deserve to win seats if they are more-or-less a one man band who's scared to fight a seat.
They should have taken a leaf out of the SDP's book.
Warrington 1981, Jenkins, a near miss
Crosby 1981, Williams, an earthquake
Hillhead 1982, Jenkins wins in unpromising territory, despite dirty tricks (the other Roy Jenkins)
Farage should have stood in Eastleigh, Nuttall in Wythenshawe. The media circus following them would probably have been worth another 5,000 votes, and the bandwagon effect would probably have seen them home...
Before my tie but weren't the Alliance (not SDP) polling about 50% at one point?0 -
It is the Tories great fortune that the UK Tea Party movement has formed into a separate party.0
-
Fortune favours the brave, in politics especially.david_herdson said:
You probably have a point about Farage and Eastbourne but it shouldn't be ignored that the SDP were not a new party in the sense that UKIP is: they had plenty of current and former MPs as well as support staff and activists who were well-versed in winning elections. UKIP, despite some defections, is starting from a much lower experience base.
A by-election is a god-given opportunity for media attention and creating a bandwagon.
Farage has no political skills.
Looks like UKIP have bottled it and blown it, so far as Westminster seats are concerned...
0 -
Like I said I'm quite happy to enter into a (small stakes) £1/point setting the line at 10.5 with a cap of 50 say (On your side) spread bet with you on this one.antifrank said:
That's right. I don't regard that as a particularly outlandish thing to say. Given that we can ignore Scotland, northern Ireland and Wales for this purpose, that Labour and the Conservatives will be first and second in the great bulk of seats, that the Lib Dems will be concentrating their efforts in those seats where they're competitive and UKIP will be spread very thinly with little experience of elections, I'd have thought 10 second places would be a pretty good result for UKIP.Pulpstar said:
UKIP to get less than 10 second places at the General Election ?!antifrank said:
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
Yes, time has run out. Eastleigh was there for the taking, and they blew it.FrankBooth said:
Farage has decided to focus on the Europeans. I think he wants a Tory seat but time may be running out between now and the election.
Before my tie but weren't the Alliance (not SDP) polling about 50% at one point?
The Alliance hit 50% in December 1981. With Eastleigh under their belt UKIP might have done the same in December 2013...
0 -
Thing don't usually change at general elections as much as you think they will. Which is not the same thing.CopperSulphate said:
Things never change at general elections as much as you think they will. The Lib Dems looked neck and neck with the big two last time in opinion polls, but got less than the previous election in the end.Pulpstar said:
15-20 second places ?! It'll be more than that...state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.
1906, 1918, 1924, 1931, 1945, 1970 and 1997 (probably among others) were all elections which moved more than at least some influential people expected. Reading Chris Mullin's diaries, many Labour MPs and activists expected no more than a modest majority, for example.
UKIP does have the potential to throw an almighty spanner in the electoral works. They may fizzle, they may draw votes close to equally and make little difference - or they may have a very significant impact, either directly or indirectly.
One lesson to draw from Wythenshawe is that none of the parties particularly enthused the electorate, either positively for themselves or as a conduit for negative/protest voting against the others. A sub-30% turnout is poor and points to the potential for breakthrough if someone can motivate and mobilise the disaffected.0 -
If you wait a bit Sporting Index or spreadex may offer a market (especially if you request one) . they did Lib dem second places for a couple of elections (called 'every second counts')Pulpstar said:
Like I said I'm quite happy to enter into a (small stakes) £1/point setting the line at 10.5 with a cap of 50 say (On your side) spread bet with you on this one.antifrank said:
That's right. I don't regard that as a particularly outlandish thing to say. Given that we can ignore Scotland, northern Ireland and Wales for this purpose, that Labour and the Conservatives will be first and second in the great bulk of seats, that the Lib Dems will be concentrating their efforts in those seats where they're competitive and UKIP will be spread very thinly with little experience of elections, I'd have thought 10 second places would be a pretty good result for UKIP.Pulpstar said:
UKIP to get less than 10 second places at the General Election ?!antifrank said:
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
I could equally ask you for a sell at 340! But given the small stakes nature of the bet, you're on. It'll be a fun one to keep an eye on.Pulpstar said:
Like I said I'm quite happy to enter into a (small stakes) £1/point setting the line at 10.5 with a cap of 50 say (On your side) spread bet with you on this one.antifrank said:
That's right. I don't regard that as a particularly outlandish thing to say. Given that we can ignore Scotland, northern Ireland and Wales for this purpose, that Labour and the Conservatives will be first and second in the great bulk of seats, that the Lib Dems will be concentrating their efforts in those seats where they're competitive and UKIP will be spread very thinly with little experience of elections, I'd have thought 10 second places would be a pretty good result for UKIP.Pulpstar said:
UKIP to get less than 10 second places at the General Election ?!antifrank said:
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
It's an interesting one. At the last GE UKIP had no 2nd places, and just 4 3rd places (Buckingham, which doesn't really count, Devon North, Devon West and Torridge, and Cornwall North)state_go_away said:Has Pulpstar hit upon the most unknown variable (UKIP second places ) since Sporting index did total wides at that cricket world cup (where SI and myself were the only people short of an avalanche of buyers)?
0 -
Haha Thanks @Antifrank you're a sport.antifrank said:
I could equally ask you for a sell at 340! But given the small stakes nature of the bet, you're on. It'll be a fun one to keep an eye on.Pulpstar said:
Like I said I'm quite happy to enter into a (small stakes) £1/point setting the line at 10.5 with a cap of 50 say (On your side) spread bet with you on this one.antifrank said:
That's right. I don't regard that as a particularly outlandish thing to say. Given that we can ignore Scotland, northern Ireland and Wales for this purpose, that Labour and the Conservatives will be first and second in the great bulk of seats, that the Lib Dems will be concentrating their efforts in those seats where they're competitive and UKIP will be spread very thinly with little experience of elections, I'd have thought 10 second places would be a pretty good result for UKIP.Pulpstar said:
UKIP to get less than 10 second places at the General Election ?!antifrank said:
I'd sell at 10.state_go_away said:
I will sell at 340!!! I personally think 15-20Pulpstar said:
A majority perhaps ? 340ish maybe ? That might be wildly off but I expect UKIP will come 2nd for instance in my contituency (Derbyshire NE) but be a mile behind Labour.antifrank said:
How many second places do you think UKIP will have after the next general election?Pulpstar said:
UKIP's collosal amount of 2nd places they are heading for could start to bear fruit at that point.Socrates said:
It's worth thinking forward a few years however. Does anyone really expect a strong performance from Miliband as PM? If not, it's not unreasonable to expect the Labour vote to drop really quickly. Where do the disilliusioned go? The Lib Dems? The Tories? I don't see it.Jonathan said:I reckon that Labour are simply just too strong at the moment to be challenged in their safe seats.
A coalition safe seat is worth punt, but even then it is notable that UKIP still didn't win Eastleigh.0 -
To be pedantic (and I don't really care!) but I think spread bets made outside of licensed FSA holders may be illegal!0
-
I'm pretty confident that UKIP will poll 25-30% in the Euros, giving them either 1st or 2nd place.Mick_Pork said:By-elections are a bonus for a protest party. You can't rely on them whereas you can rely an a big set of locals and the likes of the EU elections. Kippers need to start getting their VI up for the May EU elections since if they don't then that will be far more telling than one by-election
Not that they covered themselves in glory in Wythenshawe and the cracks were definitely showing but if they can't handle the EU elections with any more aplomb then the fall after the EU elections will be that much harder and fester.
Maximising council seat gains, on the coat-tails of a good performance in the Euros, will be critical. Last year, UKIP were able to win 6% of the seats being contested on a national equivalent vote share of 22%. Even if they did no better this year, that would net them another 250 council seats or so.
0 -
I don't think either me or Antifrank can enforce the debt which we could if we were FSA. So it is a debt of honour rather than a strictly enforcable one... I think !state_go_away said:To be pedantic (and I don't really care!) but I think spread bets made outside of licensed FSA holders may be illegal!
0 -
Not really.Jonathan said:It is the Tories great fortune that the UK Tea Party movement has formed into a separate party.
Roland Rudd @RolandRudd 5h
It won't be just the kippers who will have noticed that. The seemingly endless reserves of gullibility from tory Euroscptics have already been stretched way beyond breaking point multiple times already by Cammie's Cast Iron Promises and Pledges. The BOOers in the tory party will be running around the backbenches shouting "I told you so!" yet again. All the more stridently after the kippers beat the tories in Wythenshawe. The kippers are proving a most effective pressure group on the tory party and there's no sign of the pressure letting up for the EU elections. Unhappy tory backbenchers will not by slow to demand "red lines", concessions and more red meat on the EU and immigration from Cammie's chumocracy should the tory performance in those EU elections be less than acceptable.
Govt's “balance of competences” review looked into 14 areas without recommending that a single EU function be transferred to the UK.
0 -
Tell it to the judge!!!Pulpstar said:
I don't think either me or Antifrank can enforce the debt which we could if we were FSA. So it is a debt of honour rather than a strictly enforcable one... I think !state_go_away said:To be pedantic (and I don't really care!) but I think spread bets made outside of licensed FSA holders may be illegal!
0 -
Are you at all worried about split votes where people are voting UKIP for the Euros, but a party who actually work on the ground for the council seats? We are anecdotally seeing people considering this, and unlike last year when there are two elections you can express both desires. If my ward is at all typical, it's possible that UKIP may underperform in council seats even when storming the Euros.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty confident that UKIP will poll 25-30% in the Euros, giving them either 1st or 2nd place.Mick_Pork said:By-elections are a bonus for a protest party. You can't rely on them whereas you can rely an a big set of locals and the likes of the EU elections. Kippers need to start getting their VI up for the May EU elections since if they don't then that will be far more telling than one by-election
Not that they covered themselves in glory in Wythenshawe and the cracks were definitely showing but if they can't handle the EU elections with any more aplomb then the fall after the EU elections will be that much harder and fester.
Maximising council seat gains, on the coat-tails of a good performance in the Euros, will be critical. Last year, UKIP were able to win 6% of the seats being contested on a national equivalent vote share of 22%. Even if they did no better this year, that would net them another 250 council seats or so.0 -
Continuing this theme... but taking the brute force and incorrect approach I would much rather be on the BUY UKIP 2nd places at 10 than the SELL.Lennon said:
It's an interesting one. At the last GE UKIP had no 2nd places, and just 4 3rd places (Buckingham, which doesn't really count, Devon North, Devon West and Torridge, and Cornwall North)state_go_away said:Has Pulpstar hit upon the most unknown variable (UKIP second places ) since Sporting index did total wides at that cricket world cup (where SI and myself were the only people short of an avalanche of buyers)?
If you take GE2010 as your starting point, and assume that the Tory vote drops uniformly by 7.5pts, the Lab vote rises by 5pts, the LD vote drops by 5pts in seats that they hold, and drops by 75% in seats that they don't hold, and UKIP increases by 10pts uniformly then UKIP would get no 1st places and about 130 2nd places.0 -
I am personally going to vote the other way come May - I will vote Tory for the euros but UKIP (or ind) for the council (the tory council has put up council tax by over 3 sodding per cent and I am anal enough to read the breakdown in council tax demands to realise it!!!) elections .tpfkar said:
Are you at all worried about split votes where people are voting UKIP for the Euros, but a party who actually work on the ground for the council seats? We are anecdotally seeing people considering this, and unlike last year when there are two elections you can express both desires. If my ward is at all typical, it's possible that UKIP may underperform in council seats even when storming the Euros.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty confident that UKIP will poll 25-30% in the Euros, giving them either 1st or 2nd place.Mick_Pork said:By-elections are a bonus for a protest party. You can't rely on them whereas you can rely an a big set of locals and the likes of the EU elections. Kippers need to start getting their VI up for the May EU elections since if they don't then that will be far more telling than one by-election
Not that they covered themselves in glory in Wythenshawe and the cracks were definitely showing but if they can't handle the EU elections with any more aplomb then the fall after the EU elections will be that much harder and fester.
Maximising council seat gains, on the coat-tails of a good performance in the Euros, will be critical. Last year, UKIP were able to win 6% of the seats being contested on a national equivalent vote share of 22%. Even if they did no better this year, that would net them another 250 council seats or so.
I will vote tory of course at the general elections0 -
If my calculations are correct there were about 900 hours between the passing away of Paul Goggins and the by-election result being declared. Personally I think that was far too fast and it's a good thing that in future things won't be able to happen so quickly thanks to a new law which already exists but hasn't come into force yet.0
-
The recent poll on Scotland's referendum ranked leaflets along with direct contact and internet fora as having almost negligible impact as a source of information - the TV was orders of magnitude ahead of anything else.....HurstLlama said:"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.0 -
What new law, and how does it change things?AndyJS said:If my calculations are correct there were about 900 hours between the passing away of Paul Goggins and the by-election result being declared. Personally I think that was far too fast and it's a good thing that in future things won't be able to be done so quickly thanks to a new law.
0 -
there should be a law that states that any time quoted in hours should be divisible by 24 imhoAndyJS said:If my calculations are correct there were about 900 hours between the passing away of Paul Goggins and the by-election result being declared. Personally I think that was far too fast and it's a good thing that in future things won't be able to happen so quickly thanks to a new law which already exists but hasn't come into force yet.
0 -
Sean_F said:
I'm pretty confident that UKIP will poll 25-30% in the Euros, giving them either 1st or 2nd place.Mick_Pork said:By-elections are a bonus for a protest party. You can't rely on them whereas you can rely an a big set of locals and the likes of the EU elections. Kippers need to start getting their VI up for the May EU elections since if they don't then that will be far more telling than one by-election
Not that they covered themselves in glory in Wythenshawe and the cracks were definitely showing but if they can't handle the EU elections with any more aplomb then the fall after the EU elections will be that much harder and fester.
I'm pretty confident the kipper VI will go up. I'm just surprised we've not really seen much sign of it yet. Obviously there's still a good few months for it to do so. Perhaps the rise before the May local elections last year was slightly misleading as that was more gradual than any rise now appears to be panning out. Nonetheless surely the misery of the floods are a prime opportunity for a party with a strong protest element to make headway? We'll see as there could still be changes yet to feed through into VI.
Of course. That's the major difference between this and other EU election results for the kippers. There is unmistakably progress in base building going on to lock in a far more durable and healthier VI level than the 3.1% for 2010. That's working already and I still see no prospect whatsoever of the kippers going back to their 2010 level in 2015. It's also the reason why tory backbenchers had better get used to the kippers outflanking them at every turn because they certainly aren't going to vanish after 2015 unless some major catastrophe befalls Farage and his party.Sean_F said:Maximising council seat gains, on the coat-tails of a good performance in the Euros, will be critical. Last year, UKIP were able to win 6% of the seats being contested on a national equivalent vote share of 22%. Even if they did no better this year, that would net them another 250 council seats or so.
0 -
I think that's bound to happen to an extent. I could certainly see UKIP picking up some big Euro votes in boroughs like Wandsworth, Westminster, K & C, Hammersmith & Fulham, while falling far short of that performance in council elections.tpfkar said:
Are you at all worried about split votes where people are voting UKIP for the Euros, but a party who actually work on the ground for the council seats? We are anecdotally seeing people considering this, and unlike last year when there are two elections you can express both desires. If my ward is at all typical, it's possible that UKIP may underperform in council seats even when storming the Euros.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty confident that UKIP will poll 25-30% in the Euros, giving them either 1st or 2nd place.Mick_Pork said:By-elections are a bonus for a protest party. You can't rely on them whereas you can rely an a big set of locals and the likes of the EU elections. Kippers need to start getting their VI up for the May EU elections since if they don't then that will be far more telling than one by-election
Not that they covered themselves in glory in Wythenshawe and the cracks were definitely showing but if they can't handle the EU elections with any more aplomb then the fall after the EU elections will be that much harder and fester.
Maximising council seat gains, on the coat-tails of a good performance in the Euros, will be critical. Last year, UKIP were able to win 6% of the seats being contested on a national equivalent vote share of 22%. Even if they did no better this year, that would net them another 250 council seats or so.
I doubt if UKIP will do better than coming third, in terms of projected national vote share, in the local elections. I hope that they can match their 22% vote share from 2013.0 -
This is from a post on UKPR:Lennon said:
What new law, and how does it change things?AndyJS said:If my calculations are correct there were about 900 hours between the passing away of Paul Goggins and the by-election result being declared. Personally I think that was far too fast and it's a good thing that in future things won't be able to be done so quickly thanks to a new law.
"The Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 requires the campaign to last a minimum of 25 days (not including weekends and public holidays) from the writ being moved to polling day. The previous minimum was 17 days."
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2013/6/contents/enacted0 -
The big lesson from last night is that the L/Dems are in meltdown.0
-
About 37 days.state_go_away said:
there should be a law that states that any time quoted in hours should be divisible by 24 imhoAndyJS said:If my calculations are correct there were about 900 hours between the passing away of Paul Goggins and the by-election result being declared. Personally I think that was far too fast and it's a good thing that in future things won't be able to happen so quickly thanks to a new law which already exists but hasn't come into force yet.
0 -
Wow! so up there with the abolishment of slavery and the Act of Union!!AndyJS said:
This is from a post on UKPR:Lennon said:
What new law, and how does it change things?AndyJS said:If my calculations are correct there were about 900 hours between the passing away of Paul Goggins and the by-election result being declared. Personally I think that was far too fast and it's a good thing that in future things won't be able to be done so quickly thanks to a new law.
"The Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 requires the campaign to last a minimum of 25 days (not including weekends and public holidays) from the writ being moved to polling day. The previous minimum was 17 days."
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2013/6/contents/enacted0 -
Fortune doesn't always favour the brave: it's more that only the brave can win big - but then they can also lose big too. If Farage had stood and won in Eastbourne it would have been a defining moment in 21st century British politics. On the other hand, if he'd stood and lost (and they did have a good candidate so it's not assured they'd have done better with Farage), and then stood and lost several times more, he'd not only be branded a serial loser but also leading a one-trick pony.RodCrosby said:
Fortune favours the brave, in politics especially.david_herdson said:
You probably have a point about Farage and Eastbourne but it shouldn't be ignored that the SDP were not a new party in the sense that UKIP is: they had plenty of current and former MPs as well as support staff and activists who were well-versed in winning elections. UKIP, despite some defections, is starting from a much lower experience base.
A by-election is a god-given opportunity for media attention and creating a bandwagon.
Farage has no political skills.
Looks like UKIP have bottled it and blown it, so far as Westminster seats are concerned...
In retrospect, UKIP's mistake in Eastbourne wasn't choosing the wrong candidate, it was not working the constituency, when a by-election had been known to be possible for ages beforehand.0 -
They aren't trying to be a source of information.CarlottaVance said:
The recent poll on Scotland's referendum ranked leaflets along with direct contact and internet fora as having almost negligible impact as a source of information - the TV was orders of magnitude ahead of anything else.....HurstLlama said:"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.0 -
MrJones told us about it - it's a special, secret, law that prevents by-elections occurring in seats where UKIP stands a chance.Lennon said:
What new law, and how does it change things?AndyJS said:If my calculations are correct there were about 900 hours between the passing away of Paul Goggins and the by-election result being declared. Personally I think that was far too fast and it's a good thing that in future things won't be able to be done so quickly thanks to a new law.
0 -
calculator apps on PB !!!AndyJS said:
About 37 days.state_go_away said:
there should be a law that states that any time quoted in hours should be divisible by 24 imhoAndyJS said:If my calculations are correct there were about 900 hours between the passing away of Paul Goggins and the by-election result being declared. Personally I think that was far too fast and it's a good thing that in future things won't be able to happen so quickly thanks to a new law which already exists but hasn't come into force yet.
0 -
Just for clarification - Eastbourne = Eastleigh. Part of the problem for UKIP is that Eastleigh wasn't their Eastbourne. :-)david_herdson said:
Fortune doesn't always favour the brave: it's more that only the brave can win big - but then they can also lose big too. If Farage had stood and won in Eastbourne it would have been a defining moment in 21st century British politics. On the other hand, if he'd stood and lost (and they did have a good candidate so it's not assured they'd have done better with Farage), and then stood and lost several times more, he'd not only be branded a serial loser but also leading a one-trick pony.RodCrosby said:
Fortune favours the brave, in politics especially.david_herdson said:
You probably have a point about Farage and Eastbourne but it shouldn't be ignored that the SDP were not a new party in the sense that UKIP is: they had plenty of current and former MPs as well as support staff and activists who were well-versed in winning elections. UKIP, despite some defections, is starting from a much lower experience base.
A by-election is a god-given opportunity for media attention and creating a bandwagon.
Farage has no political skills.
Looks like UKIP have bottled it and blown it, so far as Westminster seats are concerned...
In retrospect, UKIP's mistake in Eastbourne wasn't choosing the wrong candidate, it was not working the constituency, when a by-election had been known to be possible for ages beforehand.
0 -
Well, true, but it also depends if the leaflets are there at all. I've certainly had hardly any No leaflets, though rather more Yes ones. And it's early days yet, by GE standards, so people may not be paying too much attention to referendum bumf. The figures for that and the net might change somewhat in the last few months.corporeal said:
They aren't trying to be a source of information.CarlottaVance said:
The recent poll on Scotland's referendum ranked leaflets along with direct contact and internet fora as having almost negligible impact as a source of information - the TV was orders of magnitude ahead of anything else.....HurstLlama said:"... hard anti-UKIP leaflets in the closing stages.... "
This ground war business, does anyone actually read any of the leaflets that get stuck their letter box? In my house they go straight into the recycling bin. As for door knockers they either get the same response as Jehovah's Witnesses or, if Herself is out and I am in the mood to be mischievous, invited in for tea and whiskey. I know its an article of faith for many on here that the ground war is vital, but I do wonder in this day and age if it is not an outdated concept, the cold calling of politics.
0 -
UKIP ought to be delighted with that outcome, if it happens: lots of publicity for winning a national UK-wide election (something no party other than Con or Lab has done since 1910), while less potential for embarassment from councillors elected unexpectedly or without enough vetting.tpfkar said:
Are you at all worried about split votes where people are voting UKIP for the Euros, but a party who actually work on the ground for the council seats? We are anecdotally seeing people considering this, and unlike last year when there are two elections you can express both desires. If my ward is at all typical, it's possible that UKIP may underperform in council seats even when storming the Euros.Sean_F said:
I'm pretty confident that UKIP will poll 25-30% in the Euros, giving them either 1st or 2nd place.Mick_Pork said:By-elections are a bonus for a protest party. You can't rely on them whereas you can rely an a big set of locals and the likes of the EU elections. Kippers need to start getting their VI up for the May EU elections since if they don't then that will be far more telling than one by-election
Not that they covered themselves in glory in Wythenshawe and the cracks were definitely showing but if they can't handle the EU elections with any more aplomb then the fall after the EU elections will be that much harder and fester.
Maximising council seat gains, on the coat-tails of a good performance in the Euros, will be critical. Last year, UKIP were able to win 6% of the seats being contested on a national equivalent vote share of 22%. Even if they did no better this year, that would net them another 250 council seats or so.0 -
Doh!Lennon said:
Just for clarification - Eastbourne = Eastleigh. Part of the problem for UKIP is that Eastleigh wasn't their Eastbourne. :-)david_herdson said:
Fortune doesn't always favour the brave: it's more that only the brave can win big - but then they can also lose big too. If Farage had stood and won in Eastbourne it would have been a defining moment in 21st century British politics. On the other hand, if he'd stood and lost (and they did have a good candidate so it's not assured they'd have done better with Farage), and then stood and lost several times more, he'd not only be branded a serial loser but also leading a one-trick pony.RodCrosby said:
Fortune favours the brave, in politics especially.david_herdson said:
You probably have a point about Farage and Eastbourne but it shouldn't be ignored that the SDP were not a new party in the sense that UKIP is: they had plenty of current and former MPs as well as support staff and activists who were well-versed in winning elections. UKIP, despite some defections, is starting from a much lower experience base.
A by-election is a god-given opportunity for media attention and creating a bandwagon.
Farage has no political skills.
Looks like UKIP have bottled it and blown it, so far as Westminster seats are concerned...
In retrospect, UKIP's mistake in Eastbourne wasn't choosing the wrong candidate, it was not working the constituency, when a by-election had been known to be possible for ages beforehand.0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
