politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s no longer the “Next PM” betting favourite as punters
Comments
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Why would the EU/French want to block Irish trucks coming through Dover ?williamglenn said:
The one who said we need a political solution and the backstop has to go?Alanbrooke said:bloke from port of Dover on bbc saying cant see much of a brexit problem from his side
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Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.0 -
Except that your position is absurd, and I am not the only one telling you that. Defending the status quo as actually a reasonable deal for the country is not extreme.Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.0 -
Seems good to me.Gardenwalker said:
All the worst people seem to dislike the TIGs.williamglenn said:Labour "scabs" will regret leaving.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1098549265423572993
Seems like the best thing to happen in politics in this country since May’s failed attempt to win a majority for Brexit in 2017.
Lets have a couple of years before an election where
Labour represent the far left and antisemitic communists.
Tiggers represent European die-hards wanting to refight the 2016 referendum because the people were stupid first time around.
Tories represent sensible management of the economy and moving onwards with record employment, growth and the deficit dealt with.
Lets fight it out and see what Britain wants.0 -
Except that the term “Blairite Elitist” is the sort of tripe served up by far left loons who live in bedsits.DonTsInferno_ said:Does
They are Blairite Elitists who appeal to middle aged people in the political bubbleGardenwalker said:Another thing I like about the TIGs is that they pretty much all appear to normal-looking, sane people you could have a sensible conversation with.
Burgon, Pidcock, Fabricant, Chope? Not so much.
It’s not how normal people think or speak.
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What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.0 -
I know you're not the only one. Other European extremists who want to reverse the 2016 referendum are siding with you. So what?IanB2 said:
Except that your position is absurd, and I am not the only one telling you that. Defending the status quo as actually a reasonable deal for the country is not extreme.Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
Not wanting no deal while not wanting any deal either is a very extremist position.0 -
Everyone thinks themselves as normal and everyone else differentGardenwalker said:
Except that the term “Blairite Elitist” is the sort of tripe served up by far left loons who live in bedsits.DonTsInferno_ said:Does
They are Blairite Elitists who appeal to middle aged people in the political bubbleGardenwalker said:Another thing I like about the TIGs is that they pretty much all appear to normal-looking, sane people you could have a sensible conversation with.
Burgon, Pidcock, Fabricant, Chope? Not so much.
It’s not how normal people think or speak.
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The one at 12:32 here? He sounds like a deluded Brexiteer.Alanbrooke said:
no idea, this one seemed quite bouncy, the beeb reporter was almost disappointed he wasnt oozing gloomwilliamglenn said:
The one who said we need a political solution and the backstop has to go?Alanbrooke said:bloke from port of Dover on bbc saying cant see much of a brexit problem from his side
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews
"The Prime Minister is right to reopen the withdrawal agreement."
"If you speak to politicians in Calais they'll tell you something different to the politicians in Paris."0 -
Maybe, but the point is that the LibDems are in a far stronger position. They have infrastructure, councillors, foot-soldiers and candidates.OblitusSumMe said:
Sure, the Lib Dems would be hoping for a quid pro quo elsewhere, in addition to the general cleansing effect of being associated with the bright new thing rather than the Coalition.MarqueeMark said:
That is still asking the LibDems to play second fiddle to a group whose practical short-medium term aim is to supplant them as the third party. Short of the two political forces (can't say parties yet) merging, the LibDem inclination might just be to tell them to piss off.IanB2 said:
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.YBarddCwsc said:
Greening seems to me a likely defector.IanB2 said:So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
The TIGgers have none of this. They are not even a party -- they are a motley collection of disenchanted individuals who want to remain and have little else in common. What do they conceivably have to offer the much stronger LibDems? Very little.
In a real world, those who now want to remain are a very tiny constituency. Many who voted Remain have accepted we have to leave (correctly in my view), although naturally they want a very soft Brexit (again correctly in my view).0 -
Nothing, that's what general elections are for. It took decades of people campaigning for votes before we had the EU referendum, now we need to implement that votes decision.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
Not wanting any deal and not wanting no deal either is an extremist position.0 -
Yeah, everyone loves Blair!Gardenwalker said:
Except that the term “Blairite Elitist” is the sort of tripe served up by far left loons who live in bedsits.DonTsInferno_ said:Does
They are Blairite Elitists who appeal to middle aged people in the political bubbleGardenwalker said:Another thing I like about the TIGs is that they pretty much all appear to normal-looking, sane people you could have a sensible conversation with.
Burgon, Pidcock, Fabricant, Chope? Not so much.
It’s not how normal people think or speak.0 -
Especially, as Philip rightly points out, we are in a burning plane that is about to crash.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
It would be good to ask the passengers if indeed we do want to keep on our present course.0 -
Is that because it's been decided just to wave through incoming lorries?Alanbrooke said:bloke from port of Dover on bbc saying cant see much of a brexit problem from his side
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He really is an unpleasant piece of work. Friends of mine who live in his constituency are less than impressed with his behaviour of late.williamglenn said:Labour "scabs" will regret leaving.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1098549265423572993
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If they hadn’t already voted on it without the decision being implemented, and the people asking for another vote hadn’t been elected on a platform of respecting it, it wouldn’t be extreme at all.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.0 -
No doubt you live in a part of the country where you can hear nothing but “Blairite Elitist” bandied about in the Dog and Duck.DonTsInferno_ said:
Everyone thinks themselves as normal and everyone else differentGardenwalker said:
Except that the term “Blairite Elitist” is the sort of tripe served up by far left loons who live in bedsits.DonTsInferno_ said:Does
They are Blairite Elitists who appeal to middle aged people in the political bubbleGardenwalker said:Another thing I like about the TIGs is that they pretty much all appear to normal-looking, sane people you could have a sensible conversation with.
Burgon, Pidcock, Fabricant, Chope? Not so much.
It’s not how normal people think or speak.0 -
cant open that so who knowswilliamglenn said:
The one at 12:32 here? He sounds like a deluded Brexiteer.Alanbrooke said:
no idea, this one seemed quite bouncy, the beeb reporter was almost disappointed he wasnt oozing gloomwilliamglenn said:
The one who said we need a political solution and the backstop has to go?Alanbrooke said:bloke from port of Dover on bbc saying cant see much of a brexit problem from his side
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews
"The Prime Minister is right to reopen the withdrawal agreement."
"If you speak to politicians in Calais they'll tell you something different to the politicians in Paris."
but clearly anyone falling from your story board must be suspect, it's quite funny0 -
If you manufacture a delay at Calais - you will end up snarling up not just EU lorries exporting to the Uk but a motorway full of Irish exports to the EU.williamglenn said:
The one at 12:32 here? He sounds like a deluded Brexiteer.Alanbrooke said:
no idea, this one seemed quite bouncy, the beeb reporter was almost disappointed he wasnt oozing gloomwilliamglenn said:
The one who said we need a political solution and the backstop has to go?Alanbrooke said:bloke from port of Dover on bbc saying cant see much of a brexit problem from his side
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews
"The Prime Minister is right to reopen the withdrawal agreement."
"If you speak to politicians in Calais they'll tell you something different to the politicians in Paris."
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I’d say there’s some doubt about thatGardenwalker said:
No doubt you live in a part of the country where you can hear nothing but “Blairite Elitist” bandied about in the Dog and Duck.DonTsInferno_ said:
Everyone thinks themselves as normal and everyone else differentGardenwalker said:
Except that the term “Blairite Elitist” is the sort of tripe served up by far left loons who live in bedsits.DonTsInferno_ said:Does
They are Blairite Elitists who appeal to middle aged people in the political bubbleGardenwalker said:Another thing I like about the TIGs is that they pretty much all appear to normal-looking, sane people you could have a sensible conversation with.
Burgon, Pidcock, Fabricant, Chope? Not so much.
It’s not how normal people think or speak.0 -
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.0 -
Don't they want another vote now that more information has emerged about our options? Doesn't sound super extreme to me.Philip_Thompson said:
Nothing, that's what general elections are for. It took decades of people campaigning for votes before we had the EU referendum, now we need to implement that votes decision.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
Not wanting any deal and not wanting no deal either is an extremist position.0 -
We had a general election, and May’s attempt to get a majority for her Brexit was humiliatingly defeated.Philip_Thompson said:
Nothing, that's what general elections are for. It took decades of people campaigning for votes before we had the EU referendum, now we need to implement that votes decision.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
Not wanting any deal and not wanting no deal either is an extremist position.
When will Brexiters understand how democracy works?0 -
He's the idiot who came up with this:williamglenn said:Labour "scabs" will regret leaving.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1098549265423572993
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/17201086.mp-for-kemptown-says-councils-should-have-more-powers-to-buy-private-homes/
Even Corbyn slapped him down for that, especially the bit The Argus didn't quote which said councils shouldn't have to pay market value.
He's not worth listening to.0 -
Or to use the technical jargon: taking back control.Chris said:
Is that because it's been decided just to wave through incoming lorries?Alanbrooke said:bloke from port of Dover on bbc saying cant see much of a brexit problem from his side
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I happen to disagree with a second vote (although I continue to believe that it is a 15% possibility should the deal not pass) but as with the first referendum, I find it impossible to argue with asking the people about something at any time. I mean it's the same people; we're not asking the French, for example.DonTsInferno_ said:
If they hadn’t already voted on it without the decision being implemented, and the people asking for another vote hadn’t been elected on a platform of respecting it, it wouldn’t be extreme at all.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.0 -
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.0 -
A forlorn hope, I would wager. Begum has become one of those topics. Last one I recall was Worboys, the 'black cab rapist'. Nobody wanted him out. Nobody wants her home.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
That is what happens if you do lots of rapes or run off to join ISIS. The public take umbrage.
Me too, I'm part of the public, nothing special about me.
Trouble is, there would appear to be nothing special about the Home Secretary either, and that is not so great.0 -
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.0 -
Kinder gentler politics...oxfordsimon said:
He really is an unpleasant piece of work. Friends of mine who live in his constituency are less than impressed with his behaviour of late.williamglenn said:Labour "scabs" will regret leaving.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/10985492654235729930 -
All the good will he may have generated by talking openly about his HIV status has been undone by his infantile/nasty behaviour sinceFrancisUrquhart said:
Kinder gentler politics...oxfordsimon said:
He really is an unpleasant piece of work. Friends of mine who live in his constituency are less than impressed with his behaviour of late.williamglenn said:Labour "scabs" will regret leaving.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/10985492654235729930 -
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.0 -
Chortle. Keep taking the tablets.DonTsInferno_ said:
They are Blairite Elitists who appeal to middle aged people in the political bubble, nostalgic for the ancien regimeGardenwalker said:Another thing I like about the TIGs is that they pretty much all appear to normal-looking, sane people you could have a sensible conversation with.
Burgon, Pidcock, Fabricant, Chope? Not so much.0 -
Now there's a thought. I do believe you might have cracked it!TOPPING said:I happen to disagree with a second vote (although I continue to believe that it is a 15% possibility should the deal not pass) but as with the first referendum, I find it impossible to argue with asking the people about something at any time. I mean it's the same people; we're not asking the French, for example.
The power of thinking outside the box.0 -
If only they'd had the wall to prevent this kind of terrorist.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/10985632494931558460 -
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.0 -
As long as you don't order the gammon, you should be OK.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
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No, the best result for the Tories is for Labour to back Brexit and rule out EUref2 enabling a surge of Labour Remainers to TIG and the LDs and the best result for Labour is for the to revoke Brexit enabling a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIPPolruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.0 -
I recently saw a van bearing the name "Rick Hunter".ydoethur said:
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.
I think shortening Richard to Rick rather than Dick was a wise decision.0 -
The Liberals won Brecon and Radnor in the 1985 by election for the Alliance so TIG might sit out a by election there and give the LDs a free runjustin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.0 -
Jan Borrowing figures a pleasant surprise0
-
Right - the Boris calculation - to be seen as the politician who best fought for Brexit, while falling just short.Polruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.
How did our politics become such a mess that the best outcome for politicians is to fail to achieve their stated aim? (George Osborne failing to eliminate the deficit before 2015 also mischievously comes to mind).0 -
Osborne’s golden economic legacy.Alanbrooke said:Jan Borrowing figures a pleasant surprise
0 -
I have recently borrowed some vintage sporting equipment from someone called Richard Dick.SandyRentool said:
I recently saw a van bearing the name "Rick Hunter".ydoethur said:
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.
I think shortening Richard to Rick rather than Dick was a wise decision.
You would have thought his parents could have worked out that wasn't the best first name for their son...0 -
Who do you think is attracted to this new group?_Anazina_ said:
Chortle. Keep taking the tablets.DonTsInferno_ said:
They are Blairite Elitists who appeal to middle aged people in the political bubble, nostalgic for the ancien regimeGardenwalker said:Another thing I like about the TIGs is that they pretty much all appear to normal-looking, sane people you could have a sensible conversation with.
Burgon, Pidcock, Fabricant, Chope? Not so much.
People who voted Leave?
Socialists?
Students?
People in social housing?
0 -
He’s no Seymour Cocks.ydoethur said:
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.0 -
Its like the bloke who said the first name of the head of the Met was Caressa instead of CressidaSandyRentool said:
I recently saw a van bearing the name "Rick Hunter".ydoethur said:
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.
I think shortening Richard to Rick rather than Dick was a wise decision.0 -
Indeed yes. Might have been totally misunderstood (or, not as the case may be).SandyRentool said:
I recently saw a van bearing the name "Rick Hunter".ydoethur said:
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.
I think shortening Richard to Rick rather than Dick was a wise decision.0 -
Did he have a sister called Suki?oxfordsimon said:
I have recently borrowed some vintage sporting equipment from someone called Richard Dick.SandyRentool said:
I recently saw a van bearing the name "Rick Hunter".ydoethur said:
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.
I think shortening Richard to Rick rather than Dick was a wise decision.
You would have thought his parents could have worked out that wasn't the best first name for their son...0 -
Actually her vision got a majority in the election. Its just that in mainland Britain a majority was won by the Tories. In Northern Ireland a majority was won by their now allies who had the same policy in the DUP.Gardenwalker said:
We had a general election, and May’s attempt to get a majority for her Brexit was humiliatingly defeated.Philip_Thompson said:
Nothing, that's what general elections are for. It took decades of people campaigning for votes before we had the EU referendum, now we need to implement that votes decision.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
Not wanting any deal and not wanting no deal either is an extremist position.
When will Brexiters understand how democracy works?
Both Britain and NI gave a majority to those wishing to leave the EU, SM and CU.0 -
This is going to be a problem for Sanders:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/02/foreign-policy-distinguishes-bernie-sanders-2020/583279/
How much so is unclear for now.0 -
I don't know where this idea came from that it is the job of our political leaders actively to refuse to do things that the overwhelming majority of the public want. But I don't like it one bit.kinabalu said:
A forlorn hope, I would wager. Begum has become one of those topics. Last one I recall was Worboys, the 'black cab rapist'. Nobody wanted him out. Nobody wants her home.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
That is what happens if you do lots of rapes or run off to join ISIS. The public take umbrage.
Me too, I'm part of the public, nothing special about me.
Trouble is, there would appear to be nothing special about the Home Secretary either, and that is not so great.0 -
Although the most unfortunate name was a Turkish diplomat in Moscow in the 1940s:TheScreamingEagles said:
He’s no Seymour Cocks.ydoethur said:
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archibald_Clark_Kerr,_1st_Baron_Inverchapel#Personal_life0 -
That’s a fair point actually. I’m not sure I agree but the logic does break down completely if you posit credible splits to both the traditional left and right blocks. Only works if both split though, for example if LabLibTig can be tarred with blocking Brexit then the Tories stay together as the leave party and can continue winning small majorities by blaming foreigners for everything.HYUFD said:
No, the best result for the Tories is for Labour to back Brexit and rule out EUref2 enabling a surge of Labour Remainers to TIG and the LDs and the best result for Labour is for the to revoke Brexit enabling a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIPPolruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.0 -
There just been a new party set up to that endEndillion said:
I don't know where this idea came from that it is the job of our political leaders actively to refuse to do things that the overwhelming majority of the public want. But I don't like it one bit.kinabalu said:
A forlorn hope, I would wager. Begum has become one of those topics. Last one I recall was Worboys, the 'black cab rapist'. Nobody wanted him out. Nobody wants her home.OldKingCole said:Out to lunch now folk. Part of our party are Kippers, so I hope we don't talk about either politics or that ISIS girl.
That is what happens if you do lots of rapes or run off to join ISIS. The public take umbrage.
Me too, I'm part of the public, nothing special about me.
Trouble is, there would appear to be nothing special about the Home Secretary either, and that is not so great.0 -
Distinguishing himself from the rest of the field with positions that are radical but appealing to a large section of the Democrat base is going to be a problem for him?Nigelb said:This is going to be a problem for Sanders:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/02/foreign-policy-distinguishes-bernie-sanders-2020/583279/
How much so is unclear for now.0 -
lolTheScreamingEagles said:
Osborne’s golden economic legacy.Alanbrooke said:Jan Borrowing figures a pleasant surprise
weve seen just how well the economy has performed now hes out of the way.
that forecast 5% drop in GDP because of Brexit turned out to be a 5% drop if Osborne stayed in place.
Just think of the majority Dave would have had if hed put Hammond in charge- we would never have voted to leave thye EU
0 -
Or if you separate out the Tiggers and Lib Dems and use the Electoral Calculus "Labour Split" option for the Tiggers:OblitusSumMe said:
Using Electoral Calculus with:Sean_F said:
In broad terms, I think 20-25% of the voters very much like what Corbyn is offering. Some of them are to be found in parties like the Greens or SNP. Conversely, about one third are right wingers who support Brexit. About 5% support UKIP, and 28% support the Conservatives.Tissue_Price said:
Some of us said this would happen from the start. Control of the party is the most important thing to the hard left, not winning a GE too soon. The assumption is that a crisis, or just the natural pendulum of worn-out-governments, combined with FPTP, will eventually deliver power to a purist party.Cyclefree said:In response to this which @edmundintokyo wrote on a previous thread:
“Taking a step back the weird thing about this is that Corbyn his broken his party for no particular gain. There's factional control, but there's no bold left-wing agenda - just nationalizing trains and other tinkering, and a position on Brexit that he apparently doesn't particularly care about either way. It's like a supercharged version of the TB-GB stupids.”
I think this is to misunderstand the Corbyn project.
Once control over the party has been obtained then the Far Left will unleash its full programme. McDonnell has already said, I believe, that the next manifesto will be far more radical. We should not underestimate how radical Corbyn and McDonnell intend to be. Some of their advisors are ex-Communists. They do not believe in the sanctity of private property.
From Corbyn’s perspective driving out the moderates, the Blairites, Jews etc is not breaking the party but making it more in line with his views and more suitable to achieve his aims.
So, as a Conservative, I wish the TIG well in replacing the rotten and institutionally racist Labour Party.
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG/LD 33%
UKIP/Brexit Party 7%
All other parties unchanged results in:
Con 275 MPs
Lab 225 MPs
TIG/LD 80 MPs
SNP 46 MPs
That really would be a mess.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG 20%
LD 13%
UKIP/BREXIT 7%
Others unchanged...
you get:
Con 290
Lab 153
TIG 104
LD 30
SNP 50
That would put TIG+LDs perilously close to overtaking RumpLab
Especially as we'd expect a coupon election between them, not fighting each other. Add 5-10 to TIG and 1-4 to LDs; take 1-4 from Con and 5-10 from Lab.0 -
When we are a matter of weeks from leaving potentially without a deal then yes voting down a deal is extreme. Especially if you supposedly oppose no deal.TOPPING said:
Don't they want another vote now that more information has emerged about our options? Doesn't sound super extreme to me.Philip_Thompson said:
Nothing, that's what general elections are for. It took decades of people campaigning for votes before we had the EU referendum, now we need to implement that votes decision.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
Not wanting any deal and not wanting no deal either is an extremist position.
If they want another vote then let's put that in a manifesto at the next election. But for now if they want to avoid no deal the solution is a deal. But they've said they will reject any deal so that is extreme.0 -
If I thought for one moment that's what they wanted, and if Leave won again they'd accept the result and vote to implement it, then fine. But it does feel very much like the demands for a second referendum are just code for "we want Remain, and we don't care how we get there."TOPPING said:
Don't they want another vote now that more information has emerged about our options? Doesn't sound super extreme to me.Philip_Thompson said:
Nothing, that's what general elections are for. It took decades of people campaigning for votes before we had the EU referendum, now we need to implement that votes decision.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
Not wanting any deal and not wanting no deal either is an extremist position.
And to rehash a (by now) tired argument, if they were being consistent about wanting fresh votes when significant new information emerges, they'd flipping well all trigger by-elections.0 -
He was the son of former Labour Cabinet Minister - Fred Willey. Sadly he died in tragic circumstances in the late 1980s when he took his own life following a relationship breakdown.ydoethur said:
Poor man. What a name.justin124 said:
Indeed - though Labour did come close in the 1985 by election on current boundaries - Richard Willey was the candidate.YBarddCwsc said:
As you say, boundary changes.justin124 said:
Labour did come close at the July 1985 by election with the Tories being pushed into third place. For many years prior to 1979 it was a Labour seat - albeit the boundaries were then more favourable for them.YBarddCwsc said:Re Brecon & Radnor.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The southern rim of B&R used to include the northern edge of the South Wales coalfield.
No more, it is a very rural seat. If the Tories want to win any by-election, then need to pick a farmer.0 -
I'm not sure that's supported by the polling, which is currently showing 43% Remain, 35% Leave, 22% DK. https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/YBarddCwsc said:
Maybe, but the point is that the LibDems are in a far stronger position. They have infrastructure, councillors, foot-soldiers and candidates.OblitusSumMe said:
Sure, the Lib Dems would be hoping for a quid pro quo elsewhere, in addition to the general cleansing effect of being associated with the bright new thing rather than the Coalition.MarqueeMark said:
That is still asking the LibDems to play second fiddle to a group whose practical short-medium term aim is to supplant them as the third party. Short of the two political forces (can't say parties yet) merging, the LibDem inclination might just be to tell them to piss off.IanB2 said:
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.YBarddCwsc said:
Greening seems to me a likely defector.IanB2 said:So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
The TIGgers have none of this. They are not even a party -- they are a motley collection of disenchanted individuals who want to remain and have little else in common. What do they conceivably have to offer the much stronger LibDems? Very little.
In a real world, those who now want to remain are a very tiny constituency. Many who voted Remain have accepted we have to leave (correctly in my view), although naturally they want a very soft Brexit (again correctly in my view).
But the "if" is the crucial thing here, of course.
I'm with you on the LDs point.0 -
Ah, I'd not seen that option. Interesting!Andy_Cooke said:
Or if you separate out the Tiggers and Lib Dems and use the Electoral Calculus "Labour Split" option for the Tiggers:OblitusSumMe said:
Using Electoral Calculus with:Sean_F said:In broad terms, I think 20-25% of the voters very much like what Corbyn is offering. Some of them are to be found in parties like the Greens or SNP. Conversely, about one third are right wingers who support Brexit. About 5% support UKIP, and 28% support the Conservatives.
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG/LD 33%
UKIP/Brexit Party 7%
All other parties unchanged results in:
Con 275 MPs
Lab 225 MPs
TIG/LD 80 MPs
SNP 46 MPs
That really would be a mess.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG 20%
LD 13%
UKIP/BREXIT 7%
Others unchanged...
you get:
Con 290
Lab 153
TIG 104
LD 30
SNP 50
That would put TIG+LDs perilously close to overtaking RumpLab
Especially as we'd expect a coupon election between them, not fighting each other. Add 5-10 to TIG and 1-4 to LDs; take 1-4 from Con and 5-10 from Lab.0 -
A narrow escape - of course Republican senators would never be attacked by liberals - would they?Theuniondivvie said:If only they'd had the wall to prevent this kind of terrorist.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/10985632494931558460 -
Sounds good to me, and is more of a tradition among Democrats than one might think when America has been involved in nasty, protracted wars - e.g. the Eugene McCarthy insurgency vs President Johnson was extremely similar, even during the Cold War. Trump's erratic interest in withdrawing from Syria reflects a certain impatience in the electorate too.Stereotomy said:
Distinguishing himself from the rest of the field with positions that are radical but appealing to a large section of the Democrat base is going to be a problem for him?Nigelb said:This is going to be a problem for Sanders:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/02/foreign-policy-distinguishes-bernie-sanders-2020/583279/
How much so is unclear for now.0 -
Theresa May stood on the steps of Downing Street and said there was a choice between the deal, no deal or no Brexit. It is not extreme to reject being railroaded into backing the deal.Philip_Thompson said:When we are a matter of weeks from leaving potentially without a deal then yes voting down a deal is extreme. Especially if you supposedly oppose no deal.
If they want another vote then let's put that in a manifesto at the next election. But for now if they want to avoid no deal the solution is a deal. But they've said they will reject any deal so that is extreme.0 -
And that model assumes TIG and the LDs both fight every seatAndy_Cooke said:
Or if you separate out the Tiggers and Lib Dems and use the Electoral Calculus "Labour Split" option for the Tiggers:OblitusSumMe said:
Using Electoral Calculus with:Sean_F said:
In broad terms, I think 20-25% of the voters very much like what Corbyn is offering. Some of them are to be found in parties like the Greens or SNP. Conversely, about one third are right wingers who support Brexit. About 5% support UKIP, and 28% support the Conservatives.Tissue_Price said:
Some of us said this would happen from the start. Control of the party is the most important thing to the hard left, not winning a GE too soon. The assumption is that a crisis, or just the natural pendulum of worn-out-governments, combined with FPTP, will eventually deliver power to a purist party.Cyclefree said:In response to this which @edmundintokyo wrote on a previous thread:
“t either way. It's like a supercharged version of the TB-GB stupids.”
I think this is to misunderstand the Corbyn project.
Once control over the party has been obtained then the Far Left will unleash its full programme. McDonnell has already said, I believe, that the next manifesto will be far more radical. We should not underestimate how radical Corbyn and McDonnell intend to be. Some of their advisors are ex-Communists. They do not believe in the sanctity of private property.
From Corbyn’s perspective driving out the moderates, the Blairites, Jews etc is not breaking the party but making it more in line with his views and more suitable to achieve his aims.
So, as a Conservative, I wish the TIG well in replacing the rotten and institutionally racist Labour Party.
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG/LD 33%
UKIP/Brexit Party 7%
All other parties unchanged results in:
Con 275 MPs
Lab 225 MPs
TIG/LD 80 MPs
SNP 46 MPs
That really would be a mess.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG 20%
LD 13%
UKIP/BREXIT 7%
Others unchanged...
you get:
Con 290
Lab 153
TIG 104
LD 30
SNP 50
That would put TIG+LDs perilously close to overtaking RumpLab
Especially as we'd expect a coupon election between them, not fighting each other. Add 5-10 to TIG and 1-4 to LDs; take 1-4 from Con and 5-10 from Lab.0 -
That would be similar to the post Corn Laws position where the Peelites split from the Tories over Corn Law repeal and though Derby's Tories were largest party in the 1848 election they lacked a majority and the Liberals formed a GovernmentAndy_Cooke said:
Or if you separate out the Tiggers and Lib Dems and use the Electoral Calculus "Labour Split" option for the Tiggers:OblitusSumMe said:
Using Electoral Calculus with:Sean_F said:
In broad terms, I think 20-25% of the voters very much like what Corbyn is offering. Some of them are to be found in parties like the Greens or SNP. Conversely, about one third are right wingers who support Brexit. About 5% support UKIP, and 28% support the Conservatives.Tissue_Price said:
Some of us said this would happen from the start. Control of the party is the most importantplacing the rotten and institutionally racist Labour Party.Cyclefree said:In response to this which @edmundintokyo wrote on a previous thread:
“Taking a step back the weird thing about this is that Corbyn his broken his party for no particular gain. There's factional control, but there's no bold stupids.”
I think this is to misunderstand the Corbyn project.
Once control over the party has been obtained then the Far Left will unleash its full programme. McDonnell has already said, I believe, that the next manifesto will be far more radical. We should not underestimate how radical Corbyn and McDonnell intend to be. Some of their advisors are ex-Communists. They do not believe in the sanctity of private property.
From Corbyn’s perspective driving out the moderates, the Blairites, Jews etc is not breaking the party but making it more in line with his views and more suitable to achieve his aims.
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG/LD 33%
UKIP/Brexit Party 7%
All other parties unchanged results in:
Con 275 MPs
Lab 225 MPs
TIG/LD 80 MPs
SNP 46 MPs
That really would be a mess.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG 20%
LD 13%
UKIP/BREXIT 7%
Others unchanged...
you get:
Con 290
Lab 153
TIG 104
LD 30
SNP 50
That would put TIG+LDs perilously close to overtaking RumpLab
Especially as we'd expect a coupon election between them, not fighting each other. Add 5-10 to TIG and 1-4 to LDs; take 1-4 from Con and 5-10 from Lab.0 -
It's true in other fields as well. For senior executives, being made redundant and accepting a huge payoff, time off on gardening leave and then walking into a similar job elsewhere with a huge signing on bonus is often preferable to just doing the job. Jose Mourinho is a master in succeeding in the early years of a job enough to get a massive new contract, and then getting himself fired shortly thereafter.OblitusSumMe said:
Right - the Boris calculation - to be seen as the politician who best fought for Brexit, while falling just short.Polruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.
How did our politics become such a mess that the best outcome for politicians is to fail to achieve their stated aim? (George Osborne failing to eliminate the deficit before 2015 also mischievously comes to mind).0 -
Depends what type of Leave the Tories advocate but it would be suicide for the Tories to revoke BrexitPolruan said:
That’s a fair point actually. I’m not sure I agree but the logic does break down completely if you posit credible splits to both the traditional left and right blocks. Only works if both split though, for example if LabLibTig can be tarred with blocking Brexit then the Tories stay together as the leave party and can continue winning small majorities by blaming foreigners for everything.HYUFD said:
No, the best result for the Tories is for Labour to back Brexit and rule out EUref2 enabling a surge of Labour Remainers to TIG and the LDs and the best result for Labour is for the to revoke Brexit enabling a surge of Tory Leavers to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIPPolruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.0 -
Well, duh.Gardenwalker said:
We had a general election, and May’s attempt to get a majority for her Brexit was humiliatingly defeated.Philip_Thompson said:
Nothing, that's what general elections are for. It took decades of people campaigning for votes before we had the EU referendum, now we need to implement that votes decision.TOPPING said:
What's extreme about wanting to give the people of the UK a vote on something?Philip_Thompson said:
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.IanB2 said:
Keep taking the pills.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't think so at all._Anazina_ said:I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
Not wanting any deal and not wanting no deal either is an extremist position.
When will Brexiters understand how democracy works?
It works by propping up a defeated PM with a bunch of hard rightwing anti-catholic bigots from Northern Ireland.0 -
Why didn't she tweet that?_Anazina_ said:
Well, duh.Gardenwalker said:We had a general election, and May’s attempt to get a majority for her Brexit was humiliatingly defeated.
When will Brexiters understand how democracy works?
It works by propping up a defeated PM with a bunch of hard rightwing anti-catholic bigots from Northern Ireland.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/8658555784548065290 -
Is that a spoof account or real??williamglenn said:
Why didn't she tweet that?_Anazina_ said:
Well, duh.Gardenwalker said:We had a general election, and May’s attempt to get a majority for her Brexit was humiliatingly defeated.
When will Brexiters understand how democracy works?
It works by propping up a defeated PM with a bunch of hard rightwing anti-catholic bigots from Northern Ireland.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/8658555784548065290 -
That is classic scissors stone paper. A game that you are guaranteed to win if you can make your opponent commit first. And conversely will lose if you let them go last. Reveal simultaneously and it's either pure dumb luck who wins or the prize goes to the one who is best able to read the mind of the other.Polruan said:I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.
Amazing (and not in a good way) that something so important has come down to this.0 -
Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.0 -
Because she was campaigning and is dishonest.williamglenn said:
Why didn't she tweet that?_Anazina_ said:
Well, duh.Gardenwalker said:We had a general election, and May’s attempt to get a majority for her Brexit was humiliatingly defeated.
When will Brexiters understand how democracy works?
It works by propping up a defeated PM with a bunch of hard rightwing anti-catholic bigots from Northern Ireland.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/8658555784548065290 -
If ever there was a report for the "long grass" it's this one...Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
0 -
Full story is here:Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Climate change: Ban gas grid for new homes 'in six years'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-473067660 -
Or rather the 1847 election and Stanley's Tories.HYUFD said:
That would be similar to the post Corn Laws position where the Peelites split from the Tories over Corn Law repeal and though Derby's Tories were largest party in the 1848 election they lacked a majority and the Liberals formed a GovernmentAndy_Cooke said:
Or if you separate out the Tiggers and Lib Dems and use the Electoral Calculus "Labour Split" option for the Tiggers:OblitusSumMe said:
Using Electoral Calculus with:Sean_F said:
In broad terms, I think 20-25% of the voters very much like what Corbyn is offering. Some of them are to be found in parties like the Greens or SNP. Conversely, about one third are right wingers who support Brexit. About 5% support UKIP, and 28% support the Conservatives.Tissue_Price said:
Some of us said this would happen from the start. Control of the party is the most importantplacing the rotten and institutionally racist Labour Party.Cyclefree said:In response to this which @edmundintokyo wrote on a previous thread:
“Taking a step back the weird thing about this is that Corbyn his broken his party for no particular gain. There's factional control, but there's no bold stupids.”
I think this is to e Blairites, Jews etc is not breaking the party but making it more in line with his views and more suitable to achieve his aims.
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG/LD 33%
UKIP/Brexit Party 7%
All other parties unchanged results in:
Con 275 MPs
Lab 225 MPs
TIG/LD 80 MPs
SNP 46 MPs
That really would be a mess.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG 20%
LD 13%
UKIP/BREXIT 7%
Others unchanged...
you get:
Con 290
Lab 153
TIG 104
LD 30
SNP 50
That would put TIG+LDs perilously close to overtaking RumpLab
Especially as we'd expect a coupon election between them, not fighting each other. Add 5-10 to TIG and 1-4 to LDs; take 1-4 from Con and 5-10 from Lab.
The split between anti Corn Law free trader Peelites and protectionist Tories made Tory majority governments difficult from the late 1840s to early 1870s with the Whigs and then the Liberals (joined by the Peelites) benefiting. The Peelites and Whigs and Radicals merged to form the Liberals in 1859. Are the TIG the Peelites of today with hard Brexit the Corn Laws?0 -
16 minutes for the whataboutery hammer, the PB reactionaries are slowing up.TheAncientMariner said:
A narrow escape - of course Republican senators would never be attacked by liberals - would they?Theuniondivvie said:If only they'd had the wall to prevent this kind of terrorist.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1098563249493155846
What attacks on Republican senators by 'liberals' were you thinking of?0 -
Air-source heat pumps have come on a long way in recent years. My brother-in-law has recently built his house and had one installed.Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Gas-fired central heating looks very outdated (and expensive) in comparison.
I've no idea how feasible it is to retrofit them to existing homes, though.0 -
Yes:Stereotomy said:
Distinguishing himself from the rest of the field with positions that are radical but appealing to a large section of the Democrat base is going to be a problem for him?Nigelb said:This is going to be a problem for Sanders:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/02/foreign-policy-distinguishes-bernie-sanders-2020/583279/
How much so is unclear for now.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/bernie-sanders-maduro-castro-latin-america-socialism.html0 -
Air source heat pumps. More efficient than a basic electric heating element.Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Ground source heat pumps are more efficient, but ££££££ to install.0 -
OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the economy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0 -
Theuniondivvie said:
16 minutes for the whataboutery hammer, the PB reactionaries are slowing up.TheAncientMariner said:
A narrow escape - of course Republican senators would never be attacked by liberals - would they?Theuniondivvie said:If only they'd had the wall to prevent this kind of terrorist.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1098563249493155846
What attacks on Republican senators by 'liberals' were you thinking of?
Probably thinking of that guy that shot up a Republican congressional baseball team practice session a couple of years ago.0 -
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used for people on regular employee payroll.rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0 -
Yes - but the opinion polls are 38.26.14.7 - which gives the tories a 1983ish result.IanB2 said:
And that model assumes TIG and the LDs both fight every seatAndy_Cooke said:
Or if you separate out the Tiggers and Lib Dems and use the Electoral Calculus "Labour Split" option for the Tiggers:OblitusSumMe said:
Using Electoral Calculus with:Sean_F said:
In broad terms, I think 20-25% of the voters very much like what Corbyn is offering. Some of them are to be found in parties like the Greens or SNP. Conversely, about one third are right wingers who support Brexit. About 5% support UKIP, and 28% support the Conservatives.Tissue_Price said:
Some of us said this would happen from the start. Control of the party is the most important thing to the hard left, not winning a GE too soon. The assumption is that a crisis, or just the natural pendulum of worn-out-governments, combined with FPTP, will eventually deliver power to a purist party.Cyclefree said:In response to this which @edmundintokyo wrote on a previous thread:
“t either way. It's like a supercharged version of the TB-GB stupids.”
I think this is to misunderstand the Corbyn project.
Once control over the party has been obtained then the Far Left will unleash its full programme. McDonnell has already said, I believe, that the next manifesto will be far more radical. We should not underestimate how radical Corbyn and McDonnell intend to be. Some of their advisors are ex-Communists. They do not believe in the sanctity of private property.
From Corbyn’s perspective driving out the moderates, the Blairites, Jews etc is not breaking the party but making it more in line with his views and more suitable to achieve his aims.
So, as a Conservative, I wish the TIG well in replacing the rotten and institutionally racist Labour Party.
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG/LD 33%
UKIP/Brexit Party 7%
All other parties unchanged results in:
Con 275 MPs
Lab 225 MPs
TIG/LD 80 MPs
SNP 46 MPs
That really would be a mess.
Con 30%
Lab 24%
TIG 20%
LD 13%
UKIP/BREXIT 7%
Others unchanged...
you get:
Con 290
Lab 153
TIG 104
LD 30
SNP 50
That would put TIG+LDs perilously close to overtaking RumpLab
Especially as we'd expect a coupon election between them, not fighting each other. Add 5-10 to TIG and 1-4 to LDs; take 1-4 from Con and 5-10 from Lab.0 -
What's more, these systems will only work if homes are insulated to the highest standards so they need little heating.GIN1138 said:
If ever there was a report for the "long grass" it's this one...Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Bet these new "well insulated" homes don't exceed a thousand square feet either.0 -
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0 -
I know, I know, but still. We've seen what happens when politicians try to ingratiate themselves with the public. It does not end well. The public are never satisfied. Give them one thing and all that happens is they come back for more. And the more you give them the more they lose respect for you, they see you as a soft touch and start asking for stupid stuff just to take the piss. It's our old friend, the slippery slope. You begin by taking passports off ISIS brides and you end up bringing in the 2 day week and bankrupting the country. No, sorry, not on. Politicians need to be wise and mature for the very reason that the public isn't.Endillion said:I don't know where this idea came from that it is the job of our political leaders actively to refuse to do things that the overwhelming majority of the public want. But I don't like it one bit.
0 -
I'm not convinced it is possible for Labour to force it, either. Just that them trying has become nigh on inevitable.Polruan said:
I’m still not convinced it’s possible for Labour to force a 2nd referendum without massive electoral damage. The position hasn’t changed: the best result for the Tories is for Labour to be seen to stop Brexit and the best result for Labour is the Tories to proceed with Brexit whilst Labour are seen to try and stop it.dixiedean said:
I cannot see any other possible route for Corbyn now. If he doesn't he'll be left with the rump of a Party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
While he and his Morning Star advisers would be content with Brexit, it is important to note that many of his allies at the top of the leadership aren't so sanguine.0 -
Don't they become less efficient or not work at extremely cold temperatures?OblitusSumMe said:
Air-source heat pumps have come on a long way in recent years. My brother-in-law has recently built his house and had one installed.Philip_Thompson said:Just seen someone on Sky News say by 2025 new homes shouldn't be on the gas grid.
I though gas boiled central heating was more efficient. Are we supposed to switch to electrical heating? Electric heating sucks in my experience.
Gas-fired central heating looks very outdated (and expensive) in comparison.
I've no idea how feasible it is to retrofit them to existing homes, though.
Having your central heating not work at extremely cold temperatures seems like asking for trouble.0 -
Very interesting post. Thanks.rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the economy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.
I hadn't realised that that was the norm in the US, that families would effectively get a rebate at the end of the tax year. In the UK, of course, HMRC frowns on this and strives (not always successfully) to even PAYE out over the year, so everything balances by the spring cut off in early April.
I can see why that might be a big own goal for Trumpton. People very quickly get used to small tax breaks on their monthly (fortnightly?) salary. They are less likely to be sanguine about the disappearance of a few thousand dollars that they would usually use to buy garden gear, DIY stuff or appliances etc etc at the end of the winter.0 -
FPT
Trump's trade policy (or more accurately USTR Robert Lightizer's policy) is implicitly to break up WTO's system of rules and return to the GATT system where any dispute goes to bilateral negotiation. Lightizer reckons as the more powerful partner the US will not only win the disputes but will come out ahead, compared with a rule based system. Plenty of US trade experts disagree and think the US benefits from the rules. It explains why Trump is so anxious to destroy the EU, which is very much in the rule based system camp.Pulpstar said:Ivan Rogers made an interesting point that this is the only trade negotiation in history where economies are seeking to diverge. Extending the thought, perhaps a full WTO breakup for a few years followed by striking FTAs might be easier for that reason ?
Personally I don't think such a drastic step is worth it, but its a thought.0 -
Yep, but I'm kind of struggling with the concept of that shooter as a 'liberal'. Of course I realise that the term in some circles is synonymous with Black Hand Anarchism and ISIS.rpjs said:Theuniondivvie said:
16 minutes for the whataboutery hammer, the PB reactionaries are slowing up.TheAncientMariner said:
A narrow escape - of course Republican senators would never be attacked by liberals - would they?Theuniondivvie said:If only they'd had the wall to prevent this kind of terrorist.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1098563249493155846
What attacks on Republican senators by 'liberals' were you thinking of?
Probably thinking of that guy that shot up a Republican congressional baseball team practice session a couple of years ago.0 -
No, the states that have income tax tend to follow the federal rules and rates, pro-rated down. At least NYS does. I have no idea why HMRC can get it usually spot on with PAYE and the IRS can’t. It is a source of much frustration to me. I have read though that British PAYE is uniquely accurate in the world but requires the tax authorities to have more access to taxpayers’ financial affairs than most countries would be happy with. I have no idea if that’s actually true.TheWhiteRabbit said:
These are Federal returns, and I think PAYE systems (such that they are) are don on a state level. It might even be a states' rights issue, not sure.Pulpstar said:
Eh ? I know it can't be done if you are self employed but why on earth isn't PAYE just used ?rpjs said:OT but a developing problem for Trump and the Republicans here in the US and A Is that tax return season is in full swing as folks receive the necessary paperwork to file and lots of lower income families are discovering they’re not going to get a tax refund this year or even owe the IRS, sometimes into the thousands. Lots of Trumpists are tweeting their outrage at the prez right now.
The problem for the GOP seems to be that after the tax “cut” passed, they leant on the IRS to aggressively reduce the withholding (quasi-PAYE) rates to give more of a boost to the fortnightly paycheque. This means a lot of people haven’t been having enough of their income withheld and paid to the IRS and so now owe, or at the very least have had withheld just the right amount to come out even and not get a refund. This is potentialy a big deal for the exonomy as traditionally the standard withholding has meant most people get a few thousand dollars refunded at tax filing time and rely on that for big-ticket purchases like home maintenance or appliance replacement. It’s all a strategic own-goal for Trump: no-one much remembers that their paycheques got a small boost last year, but they’re certainly noticing their lack of refunds now.
As to us, we did the numbers last year and realized that we needed to up our withholding to effectively reject the by-paycheque tax cut. If we hadn’t, we’d probably be in the hole to the IRS by about $3,500 right now.0
