politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : February 13th 2014
Comments
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When you start off with 44% to opponents on 26 and 22, plus far-right parties already totalling 7, getting comfortably over 50% and well over double your nearest rival is pretty good. I think IOS can reasonably say that we've discovered that we can see UKIP off in the northern suburbs. Doesn't mean we've got a UKIP-beating formula that works everywhere, but the speculation that UKIP is a hideous threat to Labour heartlands is looking thin.Neil said:@IOS
I'd be genuinely happy if Labour had found a way to deal with UKIP, on most main issues their views are pretty much the opposite of mine (except Europe ironically enough), but I cant see that this result is proof of your claim. It was always going to be a tough area for them, that's been stated here plenty of times since the start of the campaign. Have they really done that much worse than they would have after a different type of Labour campaign?
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Pulpstar said:
@isam What bets have you taken on which lines out of interest ?
Pulpstar said:@isam What bets have you taken on which lines out of interest ?
Think I lost them all!Pulpstar said:@isam What bets have you taken on which lines out of interest ?
Labour over 44.5 was it?
Ukip under 26.5 I think
And your Tory one at 11.5
Laid ukip at 11/2
Backed them at 12/1
Backed them 2nd place at 10/11
All tiny size
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UKIP could get a massive number of 2nds at the GE.0
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Nick
I am not saying we have found the elixir! I am saying that we have found the right themes and direction. We obviously need to work on and improve on them.0 -
SKY....UKIP 17/18....Con 14/150
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UKIp 17.5%, Conservatives 14.5%. Lib Dems 5%0
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Well it's definitely downwards pressure. The question is at the Euros whether they'll lose or be annihilated.AndyJS said:
I think the BNP will definitely go down to about 2-3%.Grandiose said:Again, just to say although much overlooked, the BNP vote is worth looking out for. 3.9% before, and a lot of effort this time apparently.
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The Tories may be slowing things down a bit if they're less than a 1,000 votes behind UKIP, which is quite likely with this sort of low turnout.0
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Oh please. This is a safe seat. Even in the golden years of 1994-97, Labour had some meagre increases (or in some cases, falls) in byelections in safe Labour seats.AveryLP said:
Let's wait for the swings, IOS.IOS said:Neil
I am not getting carried away. But I am sure that UKIP hardly set Rotherham and South Shields alight in the 2010 election. We have gone away and worked on dealing with them. Indeed that work will still need to be done. But tonight it looks like we have developed a set of winning tactics to deal with UKIP.
And that is the really positive thing Labour can take from tonight.
If Labour can't improve their share of the vote with a grab and run by election in a rock solid Manchester seat a year and bit off a general election, then there will be no hope for Miliband in 2015.0 -
Annihilated. They have no activists any more and there's no point. Dont like Bulgarians or Romanians? UKIP is the party that's been most successful at feeding ill-will towards them.Grandiose said:
Well it's definitely downwards pressure. The question is at the Euros whether they'll lose or be annihilated.AndyJS said:
I think the BNP will definitely go down to about 2-3%.Grandiose said:Again, just to say although much overlooked, the BNP vote is worth looking out for. 3.9% before, and a lot of effort this time apparently.
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Looks like the poll was pretty accurate...0 -
The BNP - ugh I guess the Lib Dems will take some tiny solace in the fact they have beaten them.
Tbh This is a good result for Labour and noone else.0 -
As I have stated many times, a big influence on the next election will be the ground war. This bye-election shows how Labour will plan it. Labour has legs, many Tory activists are on their last legs, that's if they make it to the general election.0
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Ashcrofts polls may be the biggest winner tonight!0
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Neil, deselected Southwark Cllr Catherine McDonald is running in St Helens South selection rather than Dulwich. Early favourite in St Helens is former council leader Marie Rimmer, even if she is already 66.0
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Looks like Lord of the Polls was pretty accurate with his prediction. Now run it by me again, what did his marginal poll say?0
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The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening.
When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )0 -
Ashcroft's poll was always overestimating the Labour vote at 61%. (Famous last words...)0
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If Ashcroft was very close to being right with this bye-election, if I was a Tory in a marginal seat I would be shitting bricks.0
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Surely they ought to know by now whether the LDs are around the 5% figure?JohnLoony said:The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening.
When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )0 -
Neil, she was born in St Helens. But Rimmer is backed by the new council leader who ousted her, Maria Eagle, Woodward, Police Commissioner Jane Kennedy....Rimmer was the woman kept out from the shortlist by NEC in 2001.
2 Knowsley Cllrs and one lady from Warrington are the other declared runners so far.
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Andy
Not a million miles off. And also that was with the issue of turnout. Labour are always going to fall down a bit.0 -
That's not just speculation:NickPalmer said:
When you start off with 44% to opponents on 26 and 22, plus far-right parties already totalling 7, getting comfortably over 50% and well over double your nearest rival is pretty good. I think IOS can reasonably say that we've discovered that we can see UKIP off in the northern suburbs. Doesn't mean we've got a UKIP-beating formula that works everywhere, but the speculation that UKIP is a hideous threat to Labour heartlands is looking thin.Neil said:@IOS
I'd be genuinely happy if Labour had found a way to deal with UKIP, on most main issues their views are pretty much the opposite of mine (except Europe ironically enough), but I cant see that this result is proof of your claim. It was always going to be a tough area for them, that's been stated here plenty of times since the start of the campaign. Have they really done that much worse than they would have after a different type of Labour campaign?
"Steve Fisher from Oxford University has looked at the figures, and found that in places that had local elections in 2012 and 2013 on the same boundaries – combining district wards to make county divisions – UKIP progressed equally at the expense of both Conservatives and Labour."
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/02/mel-stride-mp-3.html0 -
The BBC has reported that Labour are 'tipped' to win. 'Tipped' my foot. Nailed on 1/1000 betting certainty more like !JohnLoony said:The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening.
When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )0 -
Computer
Yup that's the key point. If Ashcroft has nailed the constituency poll he has almost certainly nailed the marginal polls.
#LabourGroundGame0 -
They might not have the final figures yet. It always takes a while to kerfuffle and add up the figures before declaring them. When they have the precise (provisional) figures, *then* the Lib Dems will be in a position to decide whether they want a recount or not.AndyJS said:
Surely they ought to know by now whether the LDs are around the 5% figure?JohnLoony said:The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening.
When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
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I agree as I've said all along this isn't UKIP territory. Remember those Thanet South polls though ?...compouter2 said:If Ashcroft was very close to being right with this bye-election, if I was a Tory in a marginal seat I would be shitting bricks.
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If the Lib Dems do lose their deposit, then this will be the biggest decline they've suffered in any byelection to date. Previous record was a fall of 17.2% in Manchester Central.0
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Who (If anyone) is standing for the Loonies in this seat btw ?JohnLoony said:
They might not have the final figures yet. It always takes a while to kerfuffle and add up the figures before declaring them. When they have the precise (provisional) figures, *then* the Lib Dems will be in a position to decide whether they want a recount or not.AndyJS said:
Surely they ought to know by now whether the LDs are around the 5% figure?JohnLoony said:The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening.
When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
And are you confident?
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Labour list
02.13: Anyone who has ever done a big count knows the “bundle count” is close enough to the final result. Graham Jones MP has just tweeted what looks like the bundle count, so the result will be very close to this:
Lab 13,200
UKIP 4300
Tory 3500
Lib Dem 1200
BNP 800
Green 7000 -
Oh....and if it hasn't already been mentioned. The UKIP bus outside the count has been given a parking ticket.Harrumph!0
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Yes, would be the worst since at least 1945, narrowly beating Man C's 2012 record...Danny565 said:If the Lib Dems do lose their deposit, then this will be the biggest decline they've suffered in any byelection to date. Previous record was a fall of 17.2% in Manchester Central.
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Leeds North West could be a fascinating seat to watch come the General Election. It could be the one northern seat that UKIP have a smidgen of a chance in. Close 3 way contest LD-Lab-UKIP maybe.Danny565 said:If the Lib Dems do lose their deposit, then this will be the biggest decline they've suffered in any byelection to date. Previous record was a fall of 17.2% in Manchester Central.
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Looks like the Greens have done better than I predicted, with about 3.1% instead of 1.1%.0
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Around an 11% swing to Labour. Good result for them, no denying it...smithersjones2013 said:Labour list
02.13: Anyone who has ever done a big count knows the “bundle count” is close enough to the final result. Graham Jones MP has just tweeted what looks like the bundle count
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If I'm not mistaken on those figures it would be something like a 1.5% swing from Labour to UKIP?0
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UKIP don't help themselves by bitching about postal votes. They look like losers even though they performed respectably, and make their own supporters suspicious of postal votes which will make it harder to get out their votes.
They have a point on the timing though. Can anyone defend the convention where the incumbent party gets to game the date when the by-election is held? They should make a standard - say 6 weeks after the incumbent dies, held back up to another two weeks if there's another election already planned.0 -
JohnLoony is of course now a Conservative supporter having defected from the Monster Raving Loony Party on 1st April 2013.Pulpstar said:
Who (If anyone) is standing for the Loonies in this seat btw ?JohnLoony said:
They might not have the final figures yet. It always takes a while to kerfuffle and add up the figures before declaring them. When they have the precise (provisional) figures, *then* the Lib Dems will be in a position to decide whether they want a recount or not.AndyJS said:
Surely they ought to know by now whether the LDs are around the 5% figure?JohnLoony said:The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening.
When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
And are you confident?
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Lib Dems are £500 light....oh dear.0
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02.19: ABSOLUTE DESPERATION STATIONS FROM THE LIB DEMS. They’re 20 votes short of saving a deposit. So here’s a photo of some people trying to find those 20 votes to save their utter humiliation (via @tobyperkinsmp):
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/lib-dem-desperation-500x375.jpg
02.23: Sources in the room seem to be suggesting that the Lib Dems are losing votes, not gaining them, as they desperately try to save their deposit. Farcical.
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If LDs are 20 votes short of holding their deposit, as LabourList reports, it could mean my 4.91% prediction is spot on.0
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Does this feed into any of your models ?RodCrosby said:
Around an 11% swing to Labour. Good result for them, no denying it...smithersjones2013 said:Labour list
02.13: Anyone who has ever done a big count knows the “bundle count” is close enough to the final result. Graham Jones MP has just tweeted what looks like the bundle count0 -
Results0
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The 11% swing to Labour shows them having 0% chance of a majority using the Wheel of Fortune, Caladonian Thistle Basil Brush model.Pulpstar said:
Does this feed into any of your models ?RodCrosby said:
Around an 11% swing to Labour. Good result for them, no denying it...smithersjones2013 said:Labour list
02.13: Anyone who has ever done a big count knows the “bundle count” is close enough to the final result. Graham Jones MP has just tweeted what looks like the bundle count
Labour with a 54% swing shows them having 0% chance of a majority using the Wheel of Fortune, Caladonian Thistle Basil Brush model.0 -
11.2% swing0
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Sky News shows declaration, BBC News showing weather forecast.0
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Greens beat BNP0
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Here comes the acceptance speech written by Labour HQ.
zzzzzzz0 -
Worst LD result since at least 1945...0
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#LabourGroundGame0
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Lab 13261 55.3%
UKIP 4301 18.0%
Con 3479 14.5%
LD 1176 4.9%
Green 748 3.1%
BNP 708 3.0%
Looney 288 1.2%
23961
If I recorded it correctly0 -
Not particularly well delivered eitherNeil said:
Here comes the acceptance speech written by Labour HQ.
zzzzzzz0 -
Dan Hodges has just posted on twitter that tonights result in the bye-election is a disaster for Ed Miliband.Pulpstar said:UKIP 4301
Looney 288
Con 3479
LD 1176
Lab 13261
BNP 708
Green 748
If I recorded it correctly
G'night!0 -
Lab 13261 55%
UKIP 4301 18%
Con 3479 15%
LD 1176 05% (04.91%)
Green 748 03%
BNP 708 03%
MRLP 288 01%
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Eh??? Have you got Leeds NW mixed up with somewhere else?Pulpstar said:
Leeds North West could be a fascinating seat to watch come the General Election. It could be the one northern seat that UKIP have a smidgen of a chance in. Close 3 way contest LD-Lab-UKIP maybe.0 -
Ashcroft marginal polls = #LabourGroundGame monstering the Tories0
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No other speeches?0
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Percentages: [my prediction]
Lab 55.36% [54.06%]
UKIP 17.94% [20.73%]
Con 14.52% [16.46%]
LD 4.91% [4.91%]
Green 3.12% [1.11%]
BNP 2.95% [2.22%]
Loony 1.20% [0.52%]0 -
Errr.....I posted more or less that over 40 minutes ago, please do keep up.smithersjones2013 said:Lab 13261 55%
UKIP 4301 18%
Con 3479 15%
LD 1176 05%
Green 748 03%
BNP 708 03%
MRLP 288 01%0 -
Extremely solid result for Labour. I was expecting them to scrape to about 50%, even after the Ashcroft poll.0
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I can turn the sound on again. The clone has stopped speaking. Nope they decided to interview him. Off goes the sound again!0
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No. I think the Lib Dems are in serious danger in the North and that seat could go.The_Woodpecker said:
Eh??? Have you got Leeds NW mixed up with somewhere else?Pulpstar said:
Leeds North West could be a fascinating seat to watch come the General Election. It could be the one northern seat that UKIP have a smidgen of a chance in. Close 3 way contest LD-Lab-UKIP maybe.0 -
We seem to have some confusion already: Labour vote 13,268 or 13,261?0
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Sky News
"The Liberal Democrat candidate being led away"
Brings back memories of Hutchings at Eastleigh0 -
Right Night all !
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Well done, AndyJSAndyJS said:
Percentages: [my prediction]
Lab 55.36% [54.06%]
UKIP 17.94% [20.73%]
Con 14.52% [16.46%]
LD 4.91% [4.91%]
Green 3.12% [1.11%]
BNP 2.95% [2.22%]
Loony 1.20% [0.52%]0 -
As I was saying....Sleep wellcompouter2 said:55 Lab
20 Ukip
13 Tory
5 Chortle ...or as close to damn it0 -
Good stuff. Good night all!0
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The results confirms that the white working-class Labour vote is holding up better in the North West than probably anywhere else in the country.
Why did UKIP do better in South Shields? I'd say it's the east vs west phenomenon.0 -
Imagine that knowing the actual vote totals before they were announced. Aren't you the clever one then?compouter2 said:
Errr.....I posted more or less that over 40 minutes ago, please do keep up.smithersjones2013 said:Lab 13261 55%
UKIP 4301 18%
Con 3479 15%
LD 1176 05%
Green 748 03%
BNP 708 03%
MRLP 288 01%0 -
I'll bow to your superior concentration on such matters. I could have misheard it when it was announced.AndyJS said:We seem to have some confusion already: Labour vote 13,268 or 13,261?
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Sky News reporter
"I am looking round for Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. I don't think we have any to talk to now".0 -
I wasn't referring to any one person: another website, VoteUK forum, also has both figures.smithersjones2013 said:
I'll bow to your superior concentration on such matters. I could have misheard it when it was announced.AndyJS said:We seem to have some confusion already: Labour vote 13,268 or 13,261?
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Wasn't there a lot of residual rancor about having David Miliband parachuted into the constituency in 2001?AndyJS said:The results confirms that the white working-class Labour vote is holding up better in the North West than probably anywhere else in the country.
Why did UKIP do better in South Shields? I'd say it's the east vs west phenomenon.
Not only that but isn't Wythenshawe and Sale not exactly the typical working class constituency? Hasn't it got quite a high white collar middle class / public sector contingent?0 -
Ah OK.....AndyJS said:
I wasn't referring to any one person: another website, VoteUK forum, also has both figures.smithersjones2013 said:
I'll bow to your superior concentration on such matters. I could have misheard it when it was announced.AndyJS said:We seem to have some confusion already: Labour vote 13,268 or 13,261?
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Official figure is 13,261 according to Manchester council webpage:
http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/362/elections_and_voting/4981/your_next_election0 -
Yes I think Greg Mulholland will do well to hang on there; but not cos of UKIP.Pulpstar said:
No. I think the Lib Dems are in serious danger in the North and that seat could go.The_Woodpecker said:
Eh??? Have you got Leeds NW mixed up with somewhere else?Pulpstar said:
Leeds North West could be a fascinating seat to watch come the General Election. It could be the one northern seat that UKIP have a smidgen of a chance in. Close 3 way contest LD-Lab-UKIP maybe.
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Thanks, I suppose fluking one candidate's percentage isn't that impressive really.old_labour said:Well done, AndyJS
AndyJS said:Percentages: [my prediction]
Lab 55.36% [54.06%]
UKIP 17.94% [20.73%]
Con 14.52% [16.46%]
LD 4.91% [4.91%]
Green 3.12% [1.11%]
BNP 2.95% [2.22%]
Loony 1.20% [0.52%]0