politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Based on current Betfair WH2016 odds why Nate Silver thinks Be

asjohnstone said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Its a bit hard to get into the best unis if your A-Level grades are crap. Its not the unis fault if applicants from particular demographics have far worse attainment. Its starts much lower down.

That's glib to the point of being offensive.

Universities set admission policy, they don't have to do so exclusively on the basis of "A" levels which are easy to game for rich people. There are other ways to identify talented candidates.

When it comes to a lot of subjects, especially STEM, although A-Levels aren't perfect, there are the best way to identify talent from the options available for a standard 18 year old applicant (mature students there are other things to consider).

However, I have long advocated on here, the best single change that could be made to assist those from poorer backgrounds / worse schools, post A-Level result applications.

Then applications would be based on actual results, not gamed predictions, and the universities could see the standing on a candidate in relation to peers (and if they choose make some consideration for other factors).

On topic, the argument has a missing premise, which is that the only possible white dudes are Beto, Bernie, Biden and Brown. But American politics has a lot of white dudes, not all of whom have names beginning with "B".

"Half of universities have fewer than 5% poor white students"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47227157

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

Danny Finkelstein wrote a more balanced article about Winston Churchill the other day.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/churchill-was-a-racist-but-still-a-great-man-vnhkhfnpm

What an excellent article.

It is. He rarely writes a bad one.

"Spain budget failure puts snap election on the cards"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47225867

The leading party in the Spanish opinion polls is on about 22-23%.

Hot take from a man whose firm opened an office in Dublin so that it could carry on operating within the Single Market ...

https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1095711858781237249?s=21

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

Danny Finkelstein wrote a more balanced article about Winston Churchill the other day.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/churchill-was-a-racist-but-still-a-great-man-vnhkhfnpm

What an excellent article.

It is. He rarely writes a bad one.

Apart from 1940-41, Churchills record as a politician was poor. His leadership later in the war was not so impressive, and it is not just left wingers or Indians who say so. My older Australian relatives were damning of both his role in Gallipoli, but also in holding the Australian Divisions in the Middle East, rather than releasing them back to defend Australia in 1942. This and the American willingness to defend Australia at the Battle of the Coral Sea is why Australia tilted to America as its principal alliance.

https://www.panmacmillan.com.au/9781742623672/

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

"Half of universities have fewer than 5% poor white students"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47227157

As someone involved with the selection process for Medical School, we certainly would encourage such applicants and have tinkered with our processes to help. For example we encourage post A level applicants, with concrete results rather than over egged predictions.

The problem lies upstream though with few having the A levels or aspiration, and while school plays a substantial part, family culture to academic aspiration, or more accurate the lack of this, is where things go wrong.

I've often wondered about this; up until the mid 40's it was very hard for someone from the 'working class' to gain any sort of education after 14 or so. After that it became somewhat (at least) easier for a young person to move from their roots to some sort of managerial or professional job. That of course left those with, as Foxy says, a family culture which lacked much if any academic aspiration, without any peers who progressed.
I recall reading somewhere that if one found a bright child with, apparently, no academic interest in his or her immediate family, a little digging soon found an aunt who had managed to become a teacher, or uncle who was a foreman. Or something like that

OldKingCole said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

"Half of universities have fewer than 5% poor white students"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47227157

As someone involved with the selection process for Medical School, we certainly would encourage such applicants and have tinkered with our processes to help. For example we encourage post A level applicants, with concrete results rather than over egged predictions.

The problem lies upstream though with few having the A levels or aspiration, and while school plays a substantial part, family culture to academic aspiration, or more accurate the lack of this, is where things go wrong.

I've often wondered about this; up until the mid 40's it was very hard for someone from the 'working class' to gain any sort of education after 14 or so. After that it became somewhat (at least) easier for a young person to move from their roots to some sort of managerial or professional job. That of course left those with, as Foxy says, a family culture which lacked much if any academic aspiration, without any peers who progressed.
I recall reading somewhere that if one found a bright child with, apparently, no academic interest in his or her immediate family, a little digging soon found an aunt who had managed to become a teacher, or uncle who was a foreman. Or something like that

There are always a fair number of bright poor white children, as it is a large group and there is regression to the mean in less bright families. There is a lack of academic aspiration at home though, compounded by lack of peers and role models as well as family breakdown and lack of strong moral code such as religion. That is why Asian or Chinese from the same background and schools do much better.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1095944898182893568

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

"Half of universities have fewer than 5% poor white students"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47227157

As someone involved with the selection process for Medical School, we certainly would encourage such applicants and have tinkered with our processes to help. For example we encourage post A level applicants, with concrete results rather than over egged predictions.

The problem lies upstream though with few having the A levels or aspiration, and while school plays a substantial part, family culture to academic aspiration, or more accurate the lack of this, is where things go wrong.

I've often wondered about this; up until the mid 40's it was very hard for someone from the 'working class' to gain any sort of education after 14 or so. After that it became somewhat (at least) easier for a young person to move from their roots to some sort of managerial or professional job. That of course left those with, as Foxy says, a family culture which lacked much if any academic aspiration, without any peers who progressed.
I recall reading somewhere that if one found a bright child with, apparently, no academic interest in his or her immediate family, a little digging soon found an aunt who had managed to become a teacher, or uncle who was a foreman. Or something like that

There are always a fair number of bright poor white children, as it is a large group and there is regression to the mean in less bright families. There is a lack of academic aspiration at home though, compounded by lack of peers and role models as well as family breakdown and lack of strong moral code such as religion. That is why Asian or Chinese from the same background and schools do much better.

Indeed; family attitude is extremely important.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1095947783582953472

"Cannabis use in teens linked to depression

UK and Canada researchers said they had found "robust" evidence showing using the drug in adolescence increased the risk of developing depression in adulthood by 37%."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47215806

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1095818656150368256

And are they ignoring the deadlock in the HOC

Given it’s Faisal Islam we should take it with a big pinch of salt, but if business leaders did ask TM to unilaterally revoke A50 then they’re living on a totally different planet, have learnt nothing from the last 2 and a half years and are politically inept.

I'm not a business leader, but I do have a business. And that is exactly what I would ask Theresa May to do if I got within earshot of her.

In fact, I'll write to my MP right away and ask him to back revocation.

dr_spyn said:

John McDonnell playing the Tonypandy card for all its worth 109 years later.

That’s what you get when you have people with long memories that are obsessed by the past

felix said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

"Half of universities have fewer than 5% poor white students"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47227157

As someone involved with the selection process for Medical School, we certainly would encourage such applicants and have tinkered with our processes to help. For example we encourage post A level applicants, with concrete results rather than over egged predictions.

The problem lies upstream though with few having the A levels or aspiration, and while school plays a substantial part, family culture to academic aspiration, or more accurate the lack of this, is where things go wrong.

I've often wondered about this; up until the mid 40's it was very hard for someone from the 'working class' to gain any sort of education after 14 or so. After that it became somewhat (at least) easier for a young person to move from their roots to some sort of managerial or professional job. That of course left those with, as Foxy says, a family culture which lacked much if any academic aspiration, without any peers who progressed.
I recall reading somewhere that if one found a bright child with, apparently, no academic interest in his or her immediate family, a little digging soon found an aunt who had managed to become a teacher, or uncle who was a foreman. Or something like that

There are always a fair number of bright poor white children, as it is a large group and there is regression to the mean in less bright families. There is a lack of academic aspiration at home though, compounded by lack of peers and role models as well as family breakdown and lack of strong moral code such as religion. That is why Asian or Chinese from the same background and schools do much better.

The difference is that if we were talking about black/Asian/girls - you'd be up in arms rather than the attitude summed up ni your post of a written 'shrug'.

Not true. As you can see by my previous posts in this thread I have been a part of reformatting Medical Entrance in favour of poor white males. My point that the decline of family life and religiosity amongst the working classes is in part to blame is hardly a left wing trope either!

But if you prefer your straw men, go right ahead with your predjudices.

Casino_Royale said:

I know it’s politicalbetting and all but I really struggle to conjure up interest in betting on the race to be Democratic candidate for the next US Presidential election.

I was more interested in the postal referendum on PR carried out in British Columbia last autumn.

Each to their own, I guess. Some will find your interests equally unfathomable.

And I think you’ll find Brotdh Columbia betting markets a little less liquid...

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

John McDonnell playing the Tonypandy card for all its worth 109 years later.

That’s what you get when you have people with long memories that are obsessed by the past

We are of course talking about an event which, if not in the dories of many alive today, is within the memories and tales told by, their parents and certainly their grandparents.

I wonder whether the views would be less passionate if we were discussing, for example, Cromwell.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/dannyctkemp/status/1095941886244728832

https://twitter.com/JohnDonker/status/1095945215909736448

I see Chris Grayling has found a way to meet the voters without being hassled about transport issues.....

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

Danny Finkelstein wrote a more balanced article about Winston Churchill the other day.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/churchill-was-a-racist-but-still-a-great-man-vnhkhfnpm

What an excellent article.

It is. He rarely writes a bad one.

Apart from 1940-41, Churchills record as a politician was poor. His leadership later in the war was not so impressive, and it is not just left wingers or Indians who say so. My older Australian relatives were damning of both his role in Gallipoli, but also in holding the Australian Divisions in the Middle East, rather than releasing them back to defend Australia in 1942. This and the American willingness to defend Australia at the Battle of the Coral Sea is why Australia tilted to America as its principal alliance.

https://www.panmacmillan.com.au/9781742623672/

Considering that two of the three Australian divisions did return to Australia in early 1942 and the third did after El Alamein that's an accusation with more self-pity than substance.

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

Danny Finkelstein wrote a more balanced article about Winston Churchill the other day.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/churchill-was-a-racist-but-still-a-great-man-vnhkhfnpm

What an excellent article.

It is. He rarely writes a bad one.

Apart from 1940-41, Churchills record as a politician was poor. His leadership later in the war was not so impressive, and it is not just left wingers or Indians who say so. My older Australian relatives were damning of both his role in Gallipoli, but also in holding the Australian Divisions in the Middle East, rather than releasing them back to defend Australia in 1942. This and the American willingness to defend Australia at the Battle of the Coral Sea is why Australia tilted to America as its principal alliance.

https://www.panmacmillan.com.au/9781742623672/

Considering that two of the three Australian divisions did return to Australia in early 1942 and the third did after El Alamein that's an accusation with more self-pity than substance.

Indeed. I grew up in Australia and Gallipoli plays a very large role in Australia's history, as does American help in the Pacific during the war. But the idea of Australian divisions staying in the Middle East? No.

Jonathan said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

John McDonnell playing the Tonypandy card for all its worth 109 years later.

That’s what you get when you have people with long memories that are obsessed by the past

Brexit is the ultimate example of the genre.

For some maybe

For more it was an assessment of the costs and benefits of membership with more weight put on intangible values than you might choose.

OldKingCole said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

John McDonnell playing the Tonypandy card for all its worth 109 years later.

That’s what you get when you have people with long memories that are obsessed by the past

We are of course talking about an event which, if not in the dories of many alive today, is within the memories and tales told by, their parents and certainly their grandparents.

I wonder whether the views would be less passionate if we were discussing, for example, Cromwell.

Try asking that in Drogheda or Waterford

Was Winston a “racist”? Then, probably, so were Attlee, Beveridge, JFK, and, if you like, Marx and Lenin.

I’ve no issue with honest appraisal of historical figures, but this whole kulturkampf is all about driving wedges, and even risks people wondering if racism is so bad after all.

Foxy said:

felix said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

"Half of universities have fewer than 5% poor white students"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47227157

As someone involved with the selection process for Medical School, we certainly would encourage such applicants and have tinkered with our processes to help. For example we encourage post A level applicants, with concrete results rather than over egged predictions.

The problem lies upstream though with few having the A levels or aspiration, and while school plays a substantial part, family culture to academic aspiration, or more accurate the lack of this, is where things go wrong.

I've often wondered about this; up until the mid 40's it was very hard for someone from the 'working class' to gain any sort of education after 14 or so. After that it became somewhat (at least) easier for a young person to move from their roots to some sort of managerial or professional job. That of course left those with, as Foxy says, a family culture which lacked much if any academic aspiration, without any peers who progressed.
I recall reading somewhere that if one found a bright child with, apparently, no academic interest in his or her immediate family, a little digging soon found an aunt who had managed to become a teacher, or uncle who was a foreman. Or something like that

There are always a fair number of bright poor white children, as it is a large group and there is regression to the mean in less bright families. There is a lack of academic aspiration at home though, compounded by lack of peers and role models as well as family breakdown and lack of strong moral code such as religion. That is why Asian or Chinese from the same background and schools do much better.

The difference is that if we were talking about black/Asian/girls - you'd be up in arms rather than the attitude summed up ni your post of a written 'shrug'.

Not true. As you can see by my previous posts in this thread I have been a part of reformatting Medical Entrance in favour of poor white males. My point that the decline of family life and religiosity amongst the working classes is in part to blame is hardly a left wing trope either!

But if you prefer your straw men, go right ahead with your predjudices.

We don't often agree but I absolutely agree with you. On my visits to China, Japan and the far east the bond of family shines out whenever you engage with the people and their culture. It is something we have lost to an extent in the working class and wider society

What sort of new party might prosper in UK?

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1095965243673583617

Perhaps Goodwin is being a contrarian, but it is worth asking are the fracture lines he talks about those which are appearing in Lab and Con parties?

Christophe Dettinger the gilet jaune boxer who gave the gendarmes a boxing lesson has been sentenced to 30 months of which he will serve 12 in prison.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/02/13/01016-20190213ARTFIG00282-gilets-jaunes-au-tribunal-l-ex-boxeur-tente-de-se-justifier.php

OldKingCole said:

Charles said:

OldKingCole said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

John McDonnell playing the Tonypandy card for all its worth 109 years later.

That’s what you get when you have people with long memories that are obsessed by the past

We are of course talking about an event which, if not in the dories of many alive today, is within the memories and tales told by, their parents and certainly their grandparents.

I wonder whether the views would be less passionate if we were discussing, for example, Cromwell.

Try asking that in Drogheda or Waterford

I'll see your Drogheda and Waterford and raise you Dresden and Hamburg.

Galatians VI

dr_spyn said:

OldKingCole said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

John McDonnell playing the Tonypandy card for all its worth 109 years later.

That’s what you get when you have people with long memories that are obsessed by the past

We are of course talking about an event which, if not in the dories of many alive today, is within the memories and tales told by, their parents and certainly their grandparents.

I wonder whether the views would be less passionate if we were discussing, for example, Cromwell.

It wouldn't surprise me if McDonnell couldn't find Tonypandy on a map.

He is losing his touch, he forgot to mention Gallipoli, The Return to The Gold Standard, The Bengal Famine, The General Strike and The Black and Tans. Churchill's views on India put him beyond the pale in the 1930s, and he was effectively kept out of office by Baldwin and Chamberlain.

In some quarters there are even doubts about bombing strategy during the Second World War.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/dannyctkemp/status/1095941886244728832

https://twitter.com/JohnDonker/status/1095945215909736448

I wonder if that cost more or less than Workie...

https://twitter.com/dwp/status/657211022172889089

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Watching ITV News at Ten was a little nugget that I had missed from the reporting of Tessas little indicate barfly sidekick. He was talking about a Deal vs 21 month extension. That coincides with the duration of the proposed WA. Now we know that the WA is largely a standstill arrangement, so keeping the timing and going straight to FTA is actually pretty similar. The advantage for Tess is time for a GE or #peoplesvote, for the EU, the completion of the budget cycle. For both it is the FTA that matters. I can see it happening.

Betfair has an exit date of last quarter 2020 as 28, so worth a punt in my analysis.

Starting discussions on the future arrangement first would have avoided all of this.

Sure, but I can see the advantage for both sides of converting the WA timeframe to status quo.

28 well worth a nibble IMO.

Would be a big concession from the EU, to admit how wrong they were in terms of sequencing.

Though it does resolve all 3 issues of the WA in the short term, and open up FTA terms for negotiation. It moves things on by cunningly bypassing a meaningful vote. If course it is very possible that at the end of the extension Brexit has been reversed/abandoned too.

I can see it getting EU and Labour support.

I can't see it getting support from the Tory awkward squad, any more than any of the other sensible ways out of this mess.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/dannyctkemp/status/1095941886244728832

https://twitter.com/JohnDonker/status/1095945215909736448

The British government unveiled their Brexit muppet some time ago.

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

Charles said:

OldKingCole said:

Charles said:

dr_spyn said:

John McDonnell playing the Tonypandy card for all its worth 109 years later.

That’s what you get when you have people with long memories that are obsessed by the past

We are of course talking about an event which, if not in the dories of many alive today, is within the memories and tales told by, their parents and certainly their grandparents.

I wonder whether the views would be less passionate if we were discussing, for example, Cromwell.

Try asking that in Drogheda or Waterford

I'll see your Drogheda and Waterford and raise you Dresden and Hamburg.

Galatians VI

Had to look it up, but you are of course right.

Different times, different customs, as the Roman bloke said, and he had a lot less history to contend with. It's all a bit silly transferring our politically correct customs to past ages.

But it gives some people a chance to virtue-signal with a vengeance. Apart from the fact that no one is perfect, especially if viewed through the lens of someone's subjectivity.

Chavez wasn't all bad (he spent a lot on social projects), he wasn't all good (he bankrupted the country and then began the repression continued by his successor).

Castro was an exception. Although he created a massive NHS in Cuba, he tried to destroy the world in 1962. If he'd succeeded, all those young fans who put his picture on the wall would have been radioactive ash.

So I'd say he is the baddest of the baddest, even putting Mao, Adolf and Joe in the shade. They only intended to kill their enemies (numerous as they might be), not the whole world..

Ms Cyclefree,

St Paul never claimed to be perfect and no one is. I often wonder if in fifty years or so, we'll look back and complain about the current times. How stupid were they? Fretting about silly things that had no real purpose.

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

Paddyserie Valerie

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/02/14/patisserie-valerie-saved-irish-private-equity-firm/

cafe chain bought by Irish Private Equity

So how long do we think before it goes bankrupt again ?

Eighteen months seems about right.

Depends if they have the same accounts team....

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Bet on Beto?

Bet 0 on Beto?

I've thought for a while that Harris will the Dem nominee for Pres. & Beto would be the VP pick.

That automatically brings Texas into play, as well as Arizona and Georgia...