politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s Ipsos-MORI ratings take a huge tumble with 72% saying
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I suspect the London mayoral election next year will feature racist abuse aimed at Shaun Bailey, which may have more of a long term impact.SeanT said:
Labour's anti-Semitism won't impact them directly in the polls, for the reasons you both cite, however it does damage them, tangentially, over the longer term, as 1. makes them look divided and shifty, and 2. destroys their holier than thou USP and 3. reveals some really nasty people who support Labour, also 4. it reminds people of Jezza's eager friendship with IslamistsTOPPING said:
And probably most non-Jews also.kfowkes said:
My wife is pretty apolitical and has been a Con-Lib Dem floating voter for the 12 years I’ve known her. Unlike me, I could see the circumstances where she might vote for Labour even under Corbyn.Nemtynakht said:
Aren’t you trying to bail out a leaky boat here. Corbyn is almost certainly anti-Semitic. He has been very careful to not be openly so, but he would be monumentally stupid if being a Labour MP since the 80s he had been openly so. He allows a culture of anti-semitism to thrive firstly. He won’t come out and say things have been wrong, but he is clearly of the worldview that Jews are a problem not Israel. Hence his support for the characterised money grabbing Jews mural. I’ve been looking at some of the Corbynites in Bristol as I come across them on Facebook - they don’t even try to hide their Jew hatred.TheJezziah said:
It is one incident in that part you quoted to me earlier.TOPPING said:
I doubtTheJezziah said:
People dthe best.TOPPING said:TheJezziah said:
So in those 24 mentions you have 1 actuns allegations, discussions and debates.TOPPING said:@TheJezziah
apologies for long post:
"Fst. "
24 mentions of "Labour" in the report.
Is "1 incident" your threshold for it to be ok for Jeremy Corbyn's antics to be linked to a rise in anti-semitic incidents?
Recently during the BBC news she said that she’s fed up to the back teeth with all this anti-Semitism stuff. Without expressing which side of the debate she’s fed up with – she just thinks it’s totally irrelevant to the big issues facing the country and she’s totally right. I imagine she’s speaking for many non-politicos right now.
All these are a drag on Labour's performance.0 -
Which is a far more worrying prospect. McD by the back door, a true Marxist.SouthamObserver said:
Death is the only thing that would prevent Corbyn from standing down as leader at a time of his choosing. And he will stay until a credible far left successor emerges. Assuming McDonnell is too old, there is no-one on that wing of the party who could win and so Jezza has to keep going, hoping that something turns up. My guess is that were Labour to win the next election he would stand down immediately and let McDonnell be PM.TGOHF said:
The only thing that will shift Corbo is death or a heavy GE defeat.SeanT said:
Yes, I think that's right. He's not coming back from these record bad polling figures, unless he does something absolutely dramatic: like going full Remain, backing a 2nd referendum and campaigning to stay.AlastairMeeks said:One thing to note about Jeremy Corbyn's ratings is how decided the public is. Only 11% are "don't knows" about whether they are satisfied with him or not (just 9% are "don't knows" for the Prime Minister, but that's a much more visible role). These are now unlikely to be lightly formed judgements, easily converted by some brisk but effective campaigning.
Chances of that are negligible, so he's stuck now. Surely Labour must realise, get rid of him, put in blah blah (repeat for the 927th time, ad naus)0 -
Sadly I know several people here in Spain who'd like nothing better.Sean_F said:
How about Mark Francois as Conservative leader?SeanT said:
Unusually, I disagree with you. Yes she is a bit too big government, but she is nonetheless relaxed, smart, clever, with a great backstory. She seems actively normal, sane, sensible and capable, unlike 95% of politicians. She reminds me of Sturgeon - before power and office took its toll on the Scottish FM.TGOHF said:
She's popular in the same way Ken Clarke is - anodyne, middle of the road and doesn't offend the foaming mouthed Labour hordes as much as other Conservatives.SeanT said:This YouGov article agrees with me. The most significant politician in the country with noticeable net approval ratings is Ruth Davidson. You have to look quite hard for any others.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/11/06/boris-and-pm-are-britains-most-popular-politicians
Could such a wet big government type ever lead the Con party ? Let's hope not.
The Tories are lucky to have her in Scotland (and so is the Union), but dammit I wish she was in Number 10.0 -
It's not in their nature.FrancisUrquhart said:Google warns news sites may lose 45% of traffic if EU passes its Copyright Reform
https://thenextweb.com/eu/2019/02/07/google-copyright-reform-eu-article-11/
Google are obviously biased, but Article 11 / 13 are absolutely stupidly crafted laws...but EU doesn't appear to do listening.
Yesterday, or the day before, someone on here asked if anyone could identify an EU election that ever led to a change in direction/policies akin to watershed elections in the UK. I don't think any examples were forthcoming. No matter who is elected, the objectives are the same.0 -
When Labour does choose its next leader it has the luxury of knowing that it is almost impossible for him/her to be as unpopular as Jeremy Corbyn. The only one I could imagine getting close would be Dianne Abbott. For the Tories it will be tougher as there are plenty of candidates who would be less popular than May.0
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I think that there is a legitimate point about lack of debate for some bills. But he should choose where he highlights this problem more carefully.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've heard him speak. He's not stupid, or malicious, I think, but just kind of not living in the real world.....in an embarrassing uncle kind of way.OldKingCole said:
And I thought I had an MP of whom to be ashamed.Scott_P said:0 -
As you say, an embarrassment. RobD is right.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've heard him speak. He's not stupid, or malicious, I think, but just kind of not living in the real world.....in an embarrassing uncle kind of way.OldKingCole said:
And I thought I had an MP of whom to be ashamed.Scott_P said:
And I claim first use of the Edit button!0 -
The easiest canvassing I ever did was at the London mayoral elections for Boris (god help me) vs Ken in Central/Central North-West London.Endillion said:
I suspect the London mayoral election next year will feature racist abuse aimed at Shaun Bailey, which may have more of a long term impact.SeanT said:
Labour's anti-Semitism won't impact them directly in the polls, for the reasons you both cite, however it does damage them, tangentially, over the longer term, as 1. makes them look divided and shifty, and 2. destroys their holier than thou USP and 3. reveals some really nasty people who support Labour, also 4. it reminds people of Jezza's eager friendship with IslamistsTOPPING said:
And probably most non-Jews also.kfowkes said:
My wife is pretty apolitical and has been a Con-Lib Dem floating voter for the 12 years I’ve known her. Unlike me, I could see the circumstances where she might vote for Labour even under Corbyn.Nemtynakht said:
Aren’t you trying to bail out a leaky boat here. Corbyn is almost certainly anti-Semitic. He has been very careful to not be openly so, but he would be monumentally stupid if being a Labour MP since the 80s he had been openly so. He allows a culture of anti-semitism to thrive firstly. He won’t come out and say things have been wrong, but he is clearly of the worldview that Jews are a problem not Israel. Hence his support for the characterised money grabbing Jews mural. I’ve been looking at some of the Corbynites in Bristol as I come across them on Facebook - they don’t even try to hide their Jew hatred.TheJezziah said:
It is one incident in that part you quoted to me earlier.TOPPING said:
I doubtTheJezziah said:
People dthe best.TOPPING said:TheJezziah said:
So in those 24 mentions you have 1 actuns allegations, discussions and debates.TOPPING said:@TheJezziah
apologies for long post:
"Fst. "
24 mentions of "Labour" in the report.
Is "1 incident" your threshold for it to be ok for Jeremy Corbyn's antics to be linked to a rise in anti-semitic incidents?
Recently during the BBC news she said that she’s fed up to the back teeth with all this anti-Semitism stuff. Without expressing which side of the debate she’s fed up with – she just thinks it’s totally irrelevant to the big issues facing the country and she’s totally right. I imagine she’s speaking for many non-politicos right now.
All these are a drag on Labour's performance.0 -
Does the EU even have ears?FrancisUrquhart said:Google warns news sites may lose 45% of traffic if EU passes its Copyright Reform
https://thenextweb.com/eu/2019/02/07/google-copyright-reform-eu-article-11/
Google are obviously biased, but Article 11 / 13 are absolutely stupidly crafted laws...but EU doesn't appear to do listening.0 -
If we can do Brexit, Francis, why would we be worried about Marxism?FrancisUrquhart said:
Which is a far more worrying prospect. McD by the back door, a true Marxist.SouthamObserver said:
Death is the only thing that would prevent Corbyn from standing down as leader at a time of his choosing. And he will stay until a credible far left successor emerges. Assuming McDonnell is too old, there is no-one on that wing of the party who could win and so Jezza has to keep going, hoping that something turns up. My guess is that were Labour to win the next election he would stand down immediately and let McDonnell be PM.TGOHF said:
The only thing that will shift Corbo is death or a heavy GE defeat.SeanT said:
Yes, I think that's right. He's not coming back from these record bad polling figures, unless he does something absolutely dramatic: like going full Remain, backing a 2nd referendum and campaigning to stay.AlastairMeeks said:One thing to note about Jeremy Corbyn's ratings is how decided the public is. Only 11% are "don't knows" about whether they are satisfied with him or not (just 9% are "don't knows" for the Prime Minister, but that's a much more visible role). These are now unlikely to be lightly formed judgements, easily converted by some brisk but effective campaigning.
Chances of that are negligible, so he's stuck now. Surely Labour must realise, get rid of him, put in blah blah (repeat for the 927th time, ad naus)0 -
Would a GP really refer someone to an NHS therapist for Brexit anxiety? Talk about a waste of resources.Harris_Tweed said:
Er.. how about the million plus on the NHS?Benpointer said:
I feel a bit meh about that Alastair - anyone who can afford a therapist is unlikely to be on the receiving end of the serious impact of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, just another malign effect of Brexit:
https://twitter.com/tashahinde/status/1093842922976567296
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2017/12/1-4-million-people-referred-to-nhs-mental-health-therapy-in-the-past-year/0 -
Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?0
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I think it's available on the vanillaforum website, not the main site.FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
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Phew...I thought for a moment I had lost my VIP membership over the whole Die Hard is a Christmas movie issue ;-)RobD said:
I think it's available on the vanillaforum website, not the main site.FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
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In years to come, just seven people will admit they were at Glastonbury singing "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn"FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza headlining Glastonbury seems a long time ago....Jonathan said:Oh (dear) Jeremy Corbyn.
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No edit button for me.. its disappeared..... that's weird it just reappeared...FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
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Appears some people really do suffer it....RobD said:
Would a GP really refer someone to an NHS therapist for Brexit anxiety? Talk about a waste of resources.Harris_Tweed said:
Er.. how about the million plus on the NHS?Benpointer said:
I feel a bit meh about that Alastair - anyone who can afford a therapist is unlikely to be on the receiving end of the serious impact of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, just another malign effect of Brexit:
https://twitter.com/tashahinde/status/1093842922976567296
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2017/12/1-4-million-people-referred-to-nhs-mental-health-therapy-in-the-past-year/
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-protester-challenges-jacob-reesmogg-to-naked-debate-after-stripping-off-during-radio-4-a4061541.html0 -
As I understand it, your case is still in the queue.FrancisUrquhart said:
Phew...I thought for a moment I had lost my VIP membership over the whole Die Hard is a Christmas movie issue ;-)RobD said:
I think it's available on the vanillaforum website, not the main site.FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
One complaint about the mobile version is the screen now scrolls sideways as well as up/down. Annoying, but not the end of the world.0 -
Yeah, he's obsessed with Parliamentary procedure, and in his world it trumps all else. This leads him into absurdities which look outrageous to the wider world but which are understandable if you start from his premiss and follow it through with iron logic and a complete lack of common sense.RobD said:
I think that there is a legitimate point about lack of debate for some bills. But he should choose where he highlights this problem more carefully.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've heard him speak. He's not stupid, or malicious, I think, but just kind of not living in the real world.....in an embarrassing uncle kind of way.OldKingCole said:
And I thought I had an MP of whom to be ashamed.Scott_P said:
Hmmm....reminds me of something else, come to think of it, but I won't say. Not in the mood for arguments.0 -
Well, I suspect you are more likely to be a VIP than me!FrancisUrquhart said:
Phew...I thought for a moment I had lost my VIP membership over the whole Die Hard is a Christmas movie issue ;-)RobD said:
I think it's available on the vanillaforum website, not the main site.FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
My browser says I'm on www2.politicalbetting.com. Which is where I'm taken by Safari when I type political betting into the 'search'.0 -
They'd refer them to a therapist for anxiety. If there's a diagnosable medical condition I don't think they would screen for possible causes before referring.RobD said:
Would a GP really refer someone to an NHS therapist for Brexit anxiety? Talk about a waste of resources.Harris_Tweed said:
Er.. how about the million plus on the NHS?Benpointer said:
I feel a bit meh about that Alastair - anyone who can afford a therapist is unlikely to be on the receiving end of the serious impact of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, just another malign effect of Brexit:
https://twitter.com/tashahinde/status/1093842922976567296
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2017/12/1-4-million-people-referred-to-nhs-mental-health-therapy-in-the-past-year/0 -
Interesting. Wasn't the Labour Shadow Chancellor flirting with this?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-471695490 -
www2? Second class PB for our OldKingCole.OldKingCole said:
Well, I suspect you are more likely to be a VIP than me!FrancisUrquhart said:
Phew...I thought for a moment I had lost my VIP membership over the whole Die Hard is a Christmas movie issue ;-)RobD said:
I think it's available on the vanillaforum website, not the main site.FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
My browser says I'm on www2.politicalbetting.com. Which is where I'm taken by Safari when I type political betting into the 'search'.
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TBH, I am not sure you can take anything from that trial, other than (as anybody with half a brain knows) UBI on a national level would be incredibly expensive.MarqueeMark said:Interesting. Wasn't the Labour Shadow Chancellor flirting with this?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47169549
The trial was very small, it was a particular selected group, etc.0 -
I’d you roll that out to the entire populace, who pays for it?MarqueeMark said:Interesting. Wasn't the Labour Shadow Chancellor flirting with this?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-471695490 -
It's quite common to log onto to ww2.pb.....RobD said:
www2? Second class PB for our OldKingCole.OldKingCole said:
Well, I suspect you are more likely to be a VIP than me!FrancisUrquhart said:
Phew...I thought for a moment I had lost my VIP membership over the whole Die Hard is a Christmas movie issue ;-)RobD said:
I think it's available on the vanillaforum website, not the main site.FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
My browser says I'm on www2.politicalbetting.com. Which is where I'm taken by Safari when I type political betting into the 'search'.0 -
No, he's just a twat.RobD said:I think that there is a legitimate point about lack of debate for some bills. But he should choose where he highlights this problem more carefully.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/10938827580138741780 -
I think the estimates for rolling something like that out in the US is $4 trillion, just to give everybody $12k a year. That's 21% of US GDP and 78% of tax revenue.RobD said:
I’d you roll that out to the entire populace, who pays for it?MarqueeMark said:Interesting. Wasn't the Labour Shadow Chancellor flirting with this?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-471695490 -
I believe it is for those that turn right on planes...MarqueeMark said:
It's quite common to log onto to ww2.pb.....RobD said:
www2? Second class PB for our OldKingCole.OldKingCole said:
Well, I suspect you are more likely to be a VIP than me!FrancisUrquhart said:
Phew...I thought for a moment I had lost my VIP membership over the whole Die Hard is a Christmas movie issue ;-)RobD said:
I think it's available on the vanillaforum website, not the main site.FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
My browser says I'm on www2.politicalbetting.com. Which is where I'm taken by Safari when I type political betting into the 'search'.0 -
JemandderunerwartetistundausGründendieSienichtverstehensexuellattraktivistSeanT said:
Is she?? She looks good for her age. Genuinely didn't know that. I'd have had her as late 40s, maybe 50.Benpointer said:
Er... She 3 years older than you. How can Milf be appropriate?SeanT said:
Yes, I confessed my deviant desires for her Milfy charms a couple of days back. Apols for the image.Nigelb said:
Don't encourage him - he already has.Peter_the_Punter said:
Admit it Sean, you have the hots for her.SeanT said:
He's my MP. I have always perceived him as highly careerist, first, and soft left, second. He was a horribly PC DPP. He's also extremely wooden, and bad on TV, I'm not sure why Labourites see him as a saviour, apart from outright desperation.dixiedean said:
Does Starmer have any politics? Genuine question. As a former DPP and the lawyer brought in to lead on Brexit, I, for one, am totally unaware of where he stands within the Party on any other issue.Stereotomy said:
But Corbyn supporters don't agree with Starmer's politics.nico67 said:You’ll never win an election if the leader of the party is viewed more unfavorably than the party itself . Starmer would be wiping the floor with May if he was Labour leader . How long will the Corbyn groupies remain in a fantasy ?
As a Labour supporter the current situation is very painful!
Has he ever voiced any opinion on health, education or the economy? Is he on the right, centre or soft left of the Party?
I'll say it again, Thornberry is their best choice, on so many levels. She riles people, but the people she riles don't matter. I don't think core Labour voters in the North really care about her flag insult.
She's competent, she's smart, she's quite articulate, she's a woman (finally, a woman leader of Labour) she's got a decent backstory, she will appeal to centrists and Don't Knows, and the middle classes in the south, she is also just about leftwing enough to satisfy most Corbynites.
She's a Remainer who would push for, and accept, a very Soft Brexit.
I think if she were leading Labour they would be 10 points ahead.
If they were led by Ed Balls they would probably be 15-20 points ahead, but he would never be accepted by the lunatic membership.
I really am bewildered by my odd attraction to her. She is the opposite of my normal type, which is, happily, like my wife: young, elfin etc.
There must be some enormous German word coined by Freud for "someone unexpected you find sexually attractive for reasons you don't understand"0 -
Very interesting. I've always searched for 'politicalbetting' and been directed the 'vanilla community forum, but it's back to front; i.e the newest post is the last one. On the www2 format the newest post is always under the Lead topic.
3 minutes later. And yes, the Edit buttons here too!0 -
That doesn’t change what I believe though, does it?Scott_P said:
No, he's just a twat.RobD said:I think that there is a legitimate point about lack of debate for some bills. But he should choose where he highlights this problem more carefully.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/10938827580138741780 -
The poor buggers.FrancisUrquhart said:
I believe it is for those that turn right on planes...MarqueeMark said:
It's quite common to log onto to ww2.pb.....RobD said:
www2? Second class PB for our OldKingCole.OldKingCole said:
Well, I suspect you are more likely to be a VIP than me!FrancisUrquhart said:
Phew...I thought for a moment I had lost my VIP membership over the whole Die Hard is a Christmas movie issue ;-)RobD said:
I think it's available on the vanillaforum website, not the main site.FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
My browser says I'm on www2.politicalbetting.com. Which is where I'm taken by Safari when I type political betting into the 'search'.0 -
For the first time since 1688?SeanT said:
That does indeed seem quite twattish. We are ruled by total morons. It is quite quite depressing. Indeed I was discussing this with a fellow pb-er last night, over a gin martini: if Brexit has done one positive thing so far - it is this. It has revealed the total mediocrity of the British political elite, and the rank stupidity of far too many MPs (on all sides).Scott_P said:
No, he's just a twat.RobD said:I think that there is a legitimate point about lack of debate for some bills. But he should choose where he highlights this problem more carefully.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1093882758013874178
It feels like we went to put in a new kitchen, into our grand if slightly knackered old house called Britain, but when we pulled up the floor and looked behind the walls, we found dry rot everywhere, worms in the timbers, brickwork crumbling to dust.
Whatever kind of Brexit we get, the entire system needs a reboot. We have to start again.0 -
I much prefer the main site as newest is at the top. Unfortunately, it doesn’t play nicely with mobile.OldKingCole said:Very interesting. I've always searched for 'politicalbetting' and been directed the 'vanilla community forum, but it's back to front; i.e the newest post is the last one. On the www2 format the newest post is always under the Lead topic.
3 minutes later. And yes, the Edit buttons here too!0 -
I did not see that otherwise I would have responded. if we leave aside the UK component of the 2014 EP election (where ukip did very well but that confirmed a trend), then the UK component of the 1994 (1989?) EP election might qualify, as it was the first time Green politics was seen to be significant electorally and IIRC led to a change in behaviour by the UK political parties.RobD said:
It's not in their nature.FrancisUrquhart said:Google warns news sites may lose 45% of traffic if EU passes its Copyright Reform
https://thenextweb.com/eu/2019/02/07/google-copyright-reform-eu-article-11/
Google are obviously biased, but Article 11 / 13 are absolutely stupidly crafted laws...but EU doesn't appear to do listening.
Yesterday, or the day before, someone on here asked if anyone could identify an EU election that ever led to a change in direction/policies akin to watershed elections in the UK. I don't think any examples were forthcoming. No matter who is elected, the objectives are the same.0 -
Interesting, thanks, but I was more referring to EU direction and policies, the things the the EU Parliament should be involved with, not domestic policies.viewcode said:
I did not see that otherwise I would have responded. if we leave aside the UK component of the 2014 EP election (where ukip did very well but that confirmed a trend), then the UK component of the 1994 (1989?) EP election might qualify, as it was the first time Green politics was seen to be significant electorally and IIRC led to a change in behaviour by the UK political parties.RobD said:
It's not in their nature.FrancisUrquhart said:Google warns news sites may lose 45% of traffic if EU passes its Copyright Reform
https://thenextweb.com/eu/2019/02/07/google-copyright-reform-eu-article-11/
Google are obviously biased, but Article 11 / 13 are absolutely stupidly crafted laws...but EU doesn't appear to do listening.
Yesterday, or the day before, someone on here asked if anyone could identify an EU election that ever led to a change in direction/policies akin to watershed elections in the UK. I don't think any examples were forthcoming. No matter who is elected, the objectives are the same.0 -
1989 was the big result (in terms of votes) for the Greens. Between 1979 and 1994, EU elections in the UK were basically just opinion polls on national politics. From 1999 onwards, they started to be about attitudes towards the EU.viewcode said:
I did not see that otherwise I would have responded. if we leave aside the UK component of the 2014 EP election (where ukip did very well but that confirmed a trend), then the UK component of the 1994 (1989?) EP election might qualify, as it was the first time Green politics was seen to be significant electorally and IIRC led to a change in behaviour by the UK political parties.RobD said:
It's not in their nature.FrancisUrquhart said:Google warns news sites may lose 45% of traffic if EU passes its Copyright Reform
https://thenextweb.com/eu/2019/02/07/google-copyright-reform-eu-article-11/
Google are obviously biased, but Article 11 / 13 are absolutely stupidly crafted laws...but EU doesn't appear to do listening.
Yesterday, or the day before, someone on here asked if anyone could identify an EU election that ever led to a change in direction/policies akin to watershed elections in the UK. I don't think any examples were forthcoming. No matter who is elected, the objectives are the same.0 -
People have anxiety triggered by all sorts of stuff. Spiders, dirt, aliens etc. At least Brexit is a rational reason to be scared.RobD said:
Would a GP really refer someone to an NHS therapist for Brexit anxiety? Talk about a waste of resources.Harris_Tweed said:
Er.. how about the million plus on the NHS?Benpointer said:
I feel a bit meh about that Alastair - anyone who can afford a therapist is unlikely to be on the receiving end of the serious impact of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, just another malign effect of Brexit:
https://twitter.com/tashahinde/status/1093842922976567296
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2017/12/1-4-million-people-referred-to-nhs-mental-health-therapy-in-the-past-year/0 -
Mr. Urquhart, it'd be intriguing to know whether the EU's design is simply idiotic, or actually malevolent, regarding Article 13 and so forth.0
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I think it is both, like the VAT stuff. They think they are going to screw Google etc, who link all this stuff and don't "pay", but will actually make life far worse for the little guy doing YouTube or Twitch (even those not in the EU)...because what will happen is the big tech players will more than likely take a simple blanket safety first approach and will give these people strikes. And we already know the black hole of getting a YouTube strike / demonetised and then trying to appeal it etc.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, it'd be intriguing to know whether the EU's design is simply idiotic, or actually malevolent, regarding Article 13 and so forth.
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The EU Parliament isn't given the directing power to set EU-wide policy. That power still resides, as it always has done, with the national governments.RobD said:
Interesting, thanks, but I was more referring to EU direction and policies, the things the the EU Parliament should be involved with, not domestic policies.viewcode said:
I did not see that otherwise I would have responded. if we leave aside the UK component of the 2014 EP election (where ukip did very well but that confirmed a trend), then the UK component of the 1994 (1989?) EP election might qualify, as it was the first time Green politics was seen to be significant electorally and IIRC led to a change in behaviour by the UK political parties.RobD said:
It's not in their nature.FrancisUrquhart said:Google warns news sites may lose 45% of traffic if EU passes its Copyright Reform
https://thenextweb.com/eu/2019/02/07/google-copyright-reform-eu-article-11/
Google are obviously biased, but Article 11 / 13 are absolutely stupidly crafted laws...but EU doesn't appear to do listening.
Yesterday, or the day before, someone on here asked if anyone could identify an EU election that ever led to a change in direction/policies akin to watershed elections in the UK. I don't think any examples were forthcoming. No matter who is elected, the objectives are the same.
National sovereignty, that's what you're in favour of isn't it?
Personally I'd like to see the EU Parliament have more power - then you would see those elections have more impact, but as it is your argument is disingenuous.0 -
In the infamous Chakrabarti report she recommended that words like “Zio” should not be used because of their offensiveness. Using such a term against Luciana Berger is offensive and intended to be so. If it is being used by members of her local Labour party, then they are going explicitly against the recommendations of the report which Corbyn commissioned and stood by.SeanT said:fpt for OKC asking about "being called a farang":
I don't mind at all. I don't think "farang" is significantly pejorative (intriguingly, it comes from the Persian word for French, and can be found in multiple versions in different languages, east of Suez)
I find the word kaffir offensive, when used by Muslims, because it is offensive. I remember being mildly cheesed off when called a gringo in Mexico, but I am not entirely sure how insulting it really is. It might be no worse than Yank or Pommy.
McDonnell should be making this point to members of Ms Berger’s local party. As indeed, should Corbyn. The chances of them doing so? Well, what do you think?
0 -
Mr. Urquhart, yeah. Their effort to hammer Amazon with VAT ended up ending a lot of small/micro-businesses and driving them onto marketplace websites. Like Amazon. Cretins.0
-
Then isn’t it even more strange that the EU’s course seems fixed and unchangable? It’s as if the commission has its own plans, regardless of what the nations, individually, want. Makes a total mockery of the EU’s democracy too, if the parliament has no real powers.OblitusSumMe said:
The EU Parliament isn't given the directing power to set EU-wide policy. That power still resides, as it always has done, with the national governments.RobD said:
Interesting, thanks, but I was more referring to EU direction and policies, the things the the EU Parliament should be involved with, not domestic policies.viewcode said:
I did not see that otherwise I would have responded. if we leave aside the UK component of the 2014 EP election (where ukip did very well but that confirmed a trend), then the UK component of the 1994 (1989?) EP election might qualify, as it was the first time Green politics was seen to be significant electorally and IIRC led to a change in behaviour by the UK political parties.RobD said:
It's not in their nature.FrancisUrquhart said:Google warns news sites may lose 45% of traffic if EU passes its Copyright Reform
https://thenextweb.com/eu/2019/02/07/google-copyright-reform-eu-article-11/
Google are obviously biased, but Article 11 / 13 are absolutely stupidly crafted laws...but EU doesn't appear to do listening.
Yesterday, or the day before, someone on here asked if anyone could identify an EU election that ever led to a change in direction/policies akin to watershed elections in the UK. I don't think any examples were forthcoming. No matter who is elected, the objectives are the same.
National sovereignty, that's what you're in favour of isn't it?
Personally I'd like to see the EU Parliament have more power - then you would see those elections have more impact, but as it is your argument is disingenuous.
0 -
I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?Scott_P said:0 -
That's a really strange scale for peak Owen Jones. Any positive value is in the red zone, which seems a bit harsh, so only anti-Owen Jones is at all safe.Scott_P said:
Suggests that the overreaction is in the person declaring peak Owen Jones, rather than from the [increasingly lonely on the evidence of this poll] Corbyn loyalist himself.0 -
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
0 -
It was necessary to put it on a logarithmic scale.OblitusSumMe said:
That's a really strange scale for peak Owen Jones. Any positive value is in the red zone, which seems a bit harsh, so only anti-Owen Jones is at all safe.Scott_P said:
Suggests that the overreaction is in the person declaring peak Owen Jones, rather than from the [increasingly lonely on the evidence of this poll] Corbyn loyalist himself.0 -
Turn right on planes, and at every other bloody opportunity.FrancisUrquhart said:
I believe it is for those that turn right on planes...MarqueeMark said:
It's quite common to log onto to ww2.pb.....RobD said:
www2? Second class PB for our OldKingCole.OldKingCole said:
Well, I suspect you are more likely to be a VIP than me!FrancisUrquhart said:
Phew...I thought for a moment I had lost my VIP membership over the whole Die Hard is a Christmas movie issue ;-)RobD said:
I think it's available on the vanillaforum website, not the main site.FrancisUrquhart said:Edit button? No edit button for me....is that only open to the VIP tier?
My browser says I'm on www2.politicalbetting.com. Which is where I'm taken by Safari when I type political betting into the 'search'.0 -
0 is nominal on that scale, which could relate to any value in the real world...OblitusSumMe said:That's a really strange scale for peak Owen Jones. Any positive value is in the red zone, which seems a bit harsh, so only anti-Owen Jones is at all safe.
Suggests that the overreaction is in the person declaring peak Owen Jones, rather than from the [increasingly lonely on the evidence of this poll] Corbyn loyalist himself.0 -
Well not really. If you have to change the opinion of a large proportion of EU national governments then that will be difficult, particularly as the political makeup of those governments can also change unpredictably. You would expect it to be hard for the EU to change course.RobD said:
Then isn’t it even more strange that the EU’s course seems fixed and unchangable? It’s as if the commission has its own plans, regardless of what the nations, individually, want. Makes a total mockery of the EU’s democracy too, if the parliament has no real powers.OblitusSumMe said:
The EU Parliament isn't given the directing power to set EU-wide policy. That power still resides, as it always has done, with the national governments.RobD said:
Interesting, thanks, but I was more referring to EU direction and policies, the things the the EU Parliament should be involved with, not domestic policies.viewcode said:
I did not see that otherwise I would have responded. if we leave aside the UK component of the 2014 EP election (where ukip did very well but that confirmed a trend), then the UK component of the 1994 (1989?) EP election might qualify, as it was the first time Green politics was seen to be significant electorally and IIRC led to a change in behaviour by the UK political parties.RobD said:
It's not in their nature.FrancisUrquhart said:Google warns news sites may lose 45% of traffic if EU passes its Copyright Reform
https://thenextweb.com/eu/2019/02/07/google-copyright-reform-eu-article-11/
Google are obviously biased, but Article 11 / 13 are absolutely stupidly crafted laws...but EU doesn't appear to do listening.
Yesterday, or the day before, someone on here asked if anyone could identify an EU election that ever led to a change in direction/policies akin to watershed elections in the UK. I don't think any examples were forthcoming. No matter who is elected, the objectives are the same.
National sovereignty, that's what you're in favour of isn't it?
Personally I'd like to see the EU Parliament have more power - then you would see those elections have more impact, but as it is your argument is disingenuous.
If there was a strong centre, whether democratic or not, that had the power to override the national governments then it would be easier for the EU to change course.
So the evidence contradicts your thesis as far as I can tell.0 -
That does make a lot more sense. Thanks.RobD said:
It was necessary to put it on a logarithmic scale.OblitusSumMe said:
That's a really strange scale for peak Owen Jones. Any positive value is in the red zone, which seems a bit harsh, so only anti-Owen Jones is at all safe.Scott_P said:
Suggests that the overreaction is in the person declaring peak Owen Jones, rather than from the [increasingly lonely on the evidence of this poll] Corbyn loyalist himself.0 -
Not really.AlastairMeeks said:
It's French, but doesn't "jolie laide" cover it?SeanT said:
Is she?? She looks good for her age. Genuinely didn't know that. I'd have had her as late 40s, maybe 50.Benpointer said:
Er... She 3 years older than you. How can Milf be appropriate?SeanT said:
Yes, I confessed my deviant desires for her Milfy charms a couple of days back. Apols for the image.Nigelb said:
Don't encourage him - he already has.Peter_the_Punter said:
Admit it Sean, you have the hots for her.SeanT said:
He's my MP. I have always perceived him as highly careerist, first, and soft left, second. He was a horribly PC DPP. He's also extremely wooden, and bad on TV, I'm not sure why Labourites see him as a saviour, apart from outright desperation.dixiedean said:Stereotomy said:nico67 said:
I'll say it again, Thornberry is their best choice, on so many levels. She riles people, but the people she riles don't matter. I don't think core Labour voters in the North really care about her flag insult.
She's competent, she's smart, she's quite articulate, she's a woman (finally, a woman leader of Labour) she's got a decent backstory, she will appeal to centrists and Don't Knows, and the middle classes in the south, she is also just about leftwing enough to satisfy most Corbynites.
She's a Remainer who would push for, and accept, a very Soft Brexit.
I think if she were leading Labour they would be 10 points ahead.
If they were led by Ed Balls they would probably be 15-20 points ahead, but he would never be accepted by the lunatic membership.
I really am bewildered by my odd attraction to her. She is the opposite of my normal type, which is, happily, like my wife: young, elfin etc.
There must be some enormous German word coined by Freud for "someone unexpected you find sexually attractive for reasons you don't understand"
That is to do with looks rather than sex appeal. Thornberry has some life about her. I can imagine having a fun evening with her though not the type of evening @SeanT has imagined.
Fortunately, sex appeal has little to do with looks. And even more fortunately we don’t need to understand sexual attraction. We just feel it. And sometimes act on it.
0 -
Can we fix it. No it's fucked !Scott_P said:0 -
Doesn't Liam Fox support the deal though? He's not claiming it will continue in the event of a No Deal scenario here, is he?Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
0 -
Did you, Ms Cyclefree, have an entertaining luncheon?Cyclefree said:
Not really.AlastairMeeks said:
It's French, but doesn't "jolie laide" cover it?SeanT said:
Is she?? She looks good for her age. Genuinely didn't know that. I'd have had her as late 40s, maybe 50.Benpointer said:
Er... She 3 years older than you. How can Milf be appropriate?SeanT said:
Yes, I confessed my deviant desires for her Milfy charms a couple of days back. Apols for the image.Nigelb said:
Don't encourage him - he already has.Peter_the_Punter said:
Admit it Sean, you have the hots for her.SeanT said:
He's my MP. I have always perceived him as highly careerist, first, and soft left, second. He was a horribly PC DPP. He's also extremely wooden, and bad on TV, I'm not sure why Labourites see him as a saviour, apart from outright desperation.dixiedean said:Stereotomy said:nico67 said:
I'll say it again, Thornberry is their best choice, on so many levels. She riles people, but the people she riles don't matter. I don't think core Labour voters in the North really care about her flag insult.
She's competent, she's smart, she's quite articulate, she's a woman (finally, a woman leader of Labour) she's got a decent backstory, she will appeal to centrists and Don't Knows, and the middle classes in the south, she is also just about leftwing enough to satisfy most Corbynites.
She's a Remainer who would push for, and accept, a very Soft Brexit.
I think if she were leading Labour they would be 10 points ahead.
If they were led by Ed Balls they would probably be 15-20 points ahead, but he would never be accepted by the lunatic membership.
I really am bewildered by my odd attraction to her. She is the opposite of my normal type, which is, happily, like my wife: young, elfin etc.
There must be some enormous German word coined by Freud for "someone unexpected you find sexually attractive for reasons you don't understand"
That is to do with looks rather than sex appeal. Thornberry has some life about her. I can imagine having a fun evening with her though not the type of evening @SeanT has imagined.
Fortunately, sex appeal has little to do with looks. And even more fortunately we don’t need to understand sexual attraction. We just feel it. And sometimes act on it.0 -
Test
EDIT: Test0 -
"Madam, you are ugly!"OldKingCole said:
At one stage of my life my epitome of 'crossness' to a student was 'In this life one can be useful or beautiful. You are neither!"viewcode said:
My dad had something similar: "You can have it quick, good or cheap. Pick any two."OldKingCole said:
There's a pharmaceutical saying (probably used elsewhere, too); 'You can have it quick or you can have it right!'viewcode said:
Did he have a rubber on the end of his pencil? Because...kinabalu said:
DIODIR - do it once, do it right. This is what one of my old big bosses at Lehman Bros used to preach. And 'preach' was the word. He even used to hand out paperweights with that (DIODIR) written on them.SeanT said:See I wrote "reject" twice in the same paragraph. That's shoddy English, and I would normally and quickly amend it. But I can't, because no Edit button.
This is bad. It is going to make PB much less euphonious. Comments with glaring errors, prosodical, political and statistical, will litter the page like dog poo.
Can we have the EDIT button back, please. Thanks.
What a prat, that guy was.
"Sir, you are drunk!"
"Ah, but in the morning I shall be sober, but you will still be ugly."0 -
You're overthinking it, old bean. Start from the premise that OJ is a mendacious cretin who would boil his own grandmother in rhino piss if it curried favour with senior Corbynites, and move on from there.OblitusSumMe said:
That's a really strange scale for peak Owen Jones. Any positive value is in the red zone, which seems a bit harsh, so only anti-Owen Jones is at all safe.Scott_P said:
Suggests that the overreaction is in the person declaring peak Owen Jones, rather than from the [increasingly lonely on the evidence of this poll] Corbyn loyalist himself.
EDIT: Ok, that was a bit OTT.0 -
-
Corbyn's a complete mess and his letter simply reveals the chasms in his own party.
I commend the Daily Telegraph at the moment. Its journalism through Brexit has been the best around, with many brilliant articles. It's well worth the sub especially if you can get the 3-month deal. This is fascinating:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/08/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-set-meet-irish-pm-leo-varadkar/
Although TM can appear rather mercurial, I'm pretty sure this is on the money. She sees the best route for the deal as her MPs + DUP. Throw in the Labour leavers and you have the clearest route to Brexit.
There's actually no other pathway through this. Nothing else will command a majority in the house, nor the public.
So she's probably right. It's her amended deal or nothing. And that means the EU will have to budge.0 -
No, that must wrong. Liam Fox has everything in hand.Scott_P said:
0 -
Thai king says his sister's bid to become PM is 'inappropriate':
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-471756040 -
The Telegraph has been pretty good, but have you ever read the letters page?Mysticrose said:Corbyn's a complete mess and his letter simply reveals the chasms in his own party.
I commend the Daily Telegraph at the moment. Its journalism through Brexit has been the best around, with many brilliant articles. It's well worth the sub especially if you can get the 3-month deal. This is fascinating:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/08/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-set-meet-irish-pm-leo-varadkar/
Although TM can appear rather mercurial, I'm pretty sure this is on the money. She sees the best route for the deal as her MPs + DUP. Throw in the Labour leavers and you have the clearest route to Brexit.
There's actually no other pathway through this. Nothing else will command a majority in the house, nor the public.
So she's probably right. It's her amended deal or nothing. And that means the EU will have to budge.
Scary.0 -
I never look at them!Peter_the_Punter said:
The Telegraph has been pretty good, but have you ever read the letters page?Mysticrose said:Corbyn's a complete mess and his letter simply reveals the chasms in his own party.
I commend the Daily Telegraph at the moment. Its journalism through Brexit has been the best around, with many brilliant articles. It's well worth the sub especially if you can get the 3-month deal. This is fascinating:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/08/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-set-meet-irish-pm-leo-varadkar/
Although TM can appear rather mercurial, I'm pretty sure this is on the money. She sees the best route for the deal as her MPs + DUP. Throw in the Labour leavers and you have the clearest route to Brexit.
There's actually no other pathway through this. Nothing else will command a majority in the house, nor the public.
So she's probably right. It's her amended deal or nothing. And that means the EU will have to budge.
Scary. 0 -
Looks like the King of Thailand has slapped down his daughters political ambitions.
Edit (because I CAN): Pipped by Monsieur Dancer.0 -
Could it be left to the last minute like that? Don't Corbyn's conditions require changes to the Political Declaration that would have to be negotiated with the EU?SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.0 -
He calls it reality, but the expert-decrying Leavers would have one believe that he is talking Britain down.Scott_P said:
Who to believe?0 -
Well, quite. That has been completely obvious since way before the referendum. Any bilateral trade deals we're eventually able to reach with non-EU countries will be mitigation measures, not advantages of leaving.Scott_P said:
I remember being gobsmacked to discover that many Leavers were apparently sincere in thinking that the ability to do our own trade deals was actually a positive reason for leaving. I'd initially assumed that the claim was a transparent but rather feeble attempt to play down the economic damage of leaving the Single Market and the existing EU-negotiated deals that go with it.0 -
This isn't a realistic outcome Sean for one very simple reason. Being in the Customs Union alone does not solve the issue of the Irish border in the eyes of the EU. The only way to solve that issue to their satisfaction is to be in the (or a) Customs Union and the Single Market. Which brings you back to Freedom of Movement which means, effectively, No Deal.SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.
Corbyn's proposals do not solve anything.0 -
SeanT, Corbyn's approach sank before it even set sail. Tusk might have liked it but it's a non-starter with his own party.
I don't think No Deal is at all likely so there's really only one route and it's the one TM is pushing.
Reluctantly, in many cases, she'll bring parliament on board and get it through but only if the EU have been seen to amend the backstop issue.
Which they will.0 -
Probably0
-
I can't see May folding now, and her speech in Northern Ireland this week was very light on the precious union stuff.SeanT said:In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.0 -
I don't think Corbyn's proposals are meant to enable the ERG to support the deal.Richard_Tyndall said:
This isn't a realistic outcome Sean for one very simple reason. Being in the Customs Union alone does not solve the issue of the Irish border in the eyes of the EU. The only way to solve that issue to their satisfaction is to be in the (or a) Customs Union and the Single Market. Which brings you back to Freedom of Movement which means, effectively, No Deal.SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.
Corbyn's proposals do not solve anything.0 -
You're right, we need to move the narrative on from TINA to TINFA.SeanT said:
Depressingly, you are slowly persuading me of the merits of TMay's Deal, given that we literally have No Fucking Alternative.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, quite. That has been completely obvious since way before the referendum. Any bilateral trade deals we're eventually able to reach with non-EU countries will be mitigation measures, not advantages of leaving.Scott_P said:
I remember being gobsmacked to discover that many Leavers were apparently sincere in thinking that the ability to do our own trade deals was actually a positive reason for leaving. I'd initially assumed that the claim was a transparent but rather feeble attempt to play down the economic damage of leaving the Single Market and the existing EU-negotiated deals that go with it.
The EU needs to give TMay a face-saver. Something that looks big but isn't.0 -
Good call.Mysticrose said:
I never look at them!Peter_the_Punter said:
The Telegraph has been pretty good, but have you ever read the letters page?Mysticrose said:Corbyn's a complete mess and his letter simply reveals the chasms in his own party.
I commend the Daily Telegraph at the moment. Its journalism through Brexit has been the best around, with many brilliant articles. It's well worth the sub especially if you can get the 3-month deal. This is fascinating:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/08/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-set-meet-irish-pm-leo-varadkar/
Although TM can appear rather mercurial, I'm pretty sure this is on the money. She sees the best route for the deal as her MPs + DUP. Throw in the Labour leavers and you have the clearest route to Brexit.
There's actually no other pathway through this. Nothing else will command a majority in the house, nor the public.
So she's probably right. It's her amended deal or nothing. And that means the EU will have to budge.
Scary.0 -
"Brexit party" conjures up images of patriotic bunting, vol au vents filled with unidentifiable paté, stale Cheddar and warm white wine.Scott_P said:0 -
That's exactly it. Sums up the situation and I'm pretty sure now this is what will go through.SeanT said:
Depressingly, you are slowly persuading me of the merits of TMay's Deal, given that we literally have No Fucking Alternative.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, quite. That has been completely obvious since way before the referendum. Any bilateral trade deals we're eventually able to reach with non-EU countries will be mitigation measures, not advantages of leaving.Scott_P said:
I remember being gobsmacked to discover that many Leavers were apparently sincere in thinking that the ability to do our own trade deals was actually a positive reason for leaving. I'd initially assumed that the claim was a transparent but rather feeble attempt to play down the economic damage of leaving the Single Market and the existing EU-negotiated deals that go with it.
The EU needs to give TMay a face-saver. Something that looks big but isn't.
March 29th? Still possible. If it isn't, it will only be delayed by a couple of weeks or so.0 -
So doesn't that make the backstop the best possible achievable deal? The Irish border isn't a problem and "hostile environment" May gets the control of immigration she wants to satisfy the ~70% of the public opposed to immigration. The ERG really are monumental wreckers.Richard_Tyndall said:
This isn't a realistic outcome Sean for one very simple reason. Being in the Customs Union alone does not solve the issue of the Irish border in the eyes of the EU. The only way to solve that issue to their satisfaction is to be in the (or a) Customs Union and the Single Market. Which brings you back to Freedom of Movement which means, effectively, No Deal.SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.
Corbyn's proposals do not solve anything.0 -
No, it cannot be left to the last minute like that, which is why the can-kicking strategy is so dangerous.Chris said:
Could it be left to the last minute like that? Don't Corbyn's conditions require changes to the Political Declaration that would have to be negotiated with the EU?SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.0 -
The key is your last two words. The outcome will be decided in panic. That means the outcome is unusually uncertain since a solution might well be alighted on by large numbers of MPs barely thinking and reaching for the most superficially plausible way out.SeanT said:
Oh I know there's a hint of unicorn in Corbyn's Letter as well - e.g. having a say on Customs rules in the CU? Why would the EU give us that?Richard_Tyndall said:
This isn't a realistic outcome Sean for one very simple reason. Being in the Customs Union alone does not solve the issue of the Irish border in the eyes of the EU. The only way to solve that issue to their satisfaction is to be in the (or a) Customs Union and the Single Market. Which brings you back to Freedom of Movement which means, effectively, No Deal.SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.
Corbyn's proposals do not solve anything.
I imagine as No Deal looms so large the ultimate logic would be SM membership as well, and that would be added to the Starmer Brexit. Making it Norway Plus.
It's either that ot TMay's deal. I can't see the Commons allowing No Deal, in the end MPs will swarm behind one or the other, in panic.
Which is why I remain of the view that a fresh referendum is the single likeliest next step. It's an abdication of responsibility by MPs, but at least they don't have to be damned for eternity by signing up for something that they hate.0 -
Pate and cheddar are mostly foreign muck.AlastairMeeks said:
"Brexit party" conjures up images of patriotic bunting, vol au vents filled with unidentifiable paté, stale Cheddar and warm white wine.Scott_P said:
A true Brexit party would serve up patriotic foods, like faggots, leek puddings, tripe, and semolina, with Newcastle Brown Ale.0 -
As expected Japan have realized that the UK will be easy pickings out of the EU and will get a better deal .
Brexit becomes more absurd by the day . The UK fast running out of friends and now left to be bent over and banged by the lunatic in the WH .
But of course Leavers just can’t wait to be the US lap dog .0 -
I see brexitparty.com is for sale for just under $3000, which must be worth the lulz for a wealthy Remainer.AlastairMeeks said:
"Brexit party" conjures up images of patriotic bunting, vol au vents filled with unidentifiable paté, stale Cheddar and warm white wine.Scott_P said:0 -
Yep. As it now stands if the EU won't move - and I see no reason why they should - then May's Deal really is the only way forward.OblitusSumMe said:
So doesn't that make the backstop the best possible achievable deal? The Irish border isn't a problem and "hostile environment" May gets the control of immigration she wants to satisfy the ~70% of the public opposed to immigration. The ERG really are monumental wreckers.Richard_Tyndall said:
This isn't a realistic outcome Sean for one very simple reason. Being in the Customs Union alone does not solve the issue of the Irish border in the eyes of the EU. The only way to solve that issue to their satisfaction is to be in the (or a) Customs Union and the Single Market. Which brings you back to Freedom of Movement which means, effectively, No Deal.SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.
Corbyn's proposals do not solve anything.0 -
I didn't say they were. But they are at least supposed to satisfy the EU as regards the Backstop - and they won't.Chris said:
I don't think Corbyn's proposals are meant to enable the ERG to support the deal.Richard_Tyndall said:
This isn't a realistic outcome Sean for one very simple reason. Being in the Customs Union alone does not solve the issue of the Irish border in the eyes of the EU. The only way to solve that issue to their satisfaction is to be in the (or a) Customs Union and the Single Market. Which brings you back to Freedom of Movement which means, effectively, No Deal.SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.
Corbyn's proposals do not solve anything.0 -
There was another really interesting piece in the DTel which I think could be correct. If the EU are pushed too hard & give too much more ground it's possible Britain could do incredibly well out of Brexit. That comes with two problems for the EU. First, the UK might go on to flourish whilst the EU is in a 'tricky' period, benefitting as we might from the best of both worlds: free trade outside the EU whilst making hay within. Second, it might encourage others to secede from the EU.OblitusSumMe said:
So doesn't that make the backstop the best possible achievable deal? The Irish border isn't a problem and "hostile environment" May gets the control of immigration she wants to satisfy the ~70% of the public opposed to immigration. The ERG really are monumental wreckers.Richard_Tyndall said:
This isn't a realistic outcome Sean for one very simple reason. Being in the Customs Union alone does not solve the issue of the Irish border in the eyes of the EU. The only way to solve that issue to their satisfaction is to be in the (or a) Customs Union and the Single Market. Which brings you back to Freedom of Movement which means, effectively, No Deal.SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.
Corbyn's proposals do not solve anything.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/07/brussels-terrified-brexit-success-no-wonder-threatening-hellfire/
I don't know but this looks plausible to me.
I also read the anger lashings as a sign that they know they will have to make some changes. If you were truly intransigent and not going to budge you wouldn't bother with the fury. They are genuinely angry. But I think they will yield. Just a little. Just enough.0 -
I wish I could be so confident.SeanT said:
Oh I know there's a hint of unicorn in Corbyn's Letter as well - e.g. having a say on Customs rules in the CU? Why would the EU give us that?Richard_Tyndall said:
This isn't a realistic outcome Sean for one very simple reason. Being in the Customs Union alone does not solve the issue of the Irish border in the eyes of the EU. The only way to solve that issue to their satisfaction is to be in the (or a) Customs Union and the Single Market. Which brings you back to Freedom of Movement which means, effectively, No Deal.SeanT said:
God, Fox is such a dork.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/liamfox/status/1073298501746991104?lang=enRobD said:I'm confused. Were people suggesting it would? Or is Islam just stating the obvious here?
In (sorry) other Brexit news, TMay will not like this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170711
I reckon this is what might break her. She cares deeply about splitting the Tory party, but she clearly cares even more about protecting the union. She bangs on and on about it. So. If it's March 25 and her Deal is still dead, she will move. My guess is she will order her party to unite around the Corbyn letter, as that would command Labour support, and therefore pass the Commons.
She would do this knowing that 100 or more of her MPs would oppose, and potentially split forever. But she would do it. A Starmer Brexit.
Corbyn's proposals do not solve anything.
I imagine as No Deal looms so large the ultimate logic would be SM membership as well, and that would be added to the Starmer Brexit. Making it Norway Plus.
It's either that ot TMay's deal. I can't see the Commons allowing No Deal, in the end MPs will swarm behind one or the other, in panic.0 -
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Risky this, but if anyone knows about inappropriate behaviour it's the present King of Thailand.Morris_Dancer said:Thai king says his sister's bid to become PM is 'inappropriate':
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47175604-1 -
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https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1093908156948926469TheWhiteRabbit said:Thousands my arse.
If they wanted to back Farage they would have jumped ship long ago0 -
I'm not so sure. This could be interesting or dangerous moment for UK (depending on your viewpoint):TheWhiteRabbit said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/10923506908134481920
This discussion has been closed.