politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Beto O’Rourke says he can’t decide whether to run for the Pres
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Modern-day Labour reminds me more and more of Alan Bleasdale's GBH every day.
https://twitter.com/HuckFem/status/10910859009252925440 -
I heard dafter ideasAlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
Especially if you lost the popular vote too, imagine, going down as even less electable than Hillary!rottenborough said:
The possibility of losing to Trump must be a factor for all of them, in the sense of how could you live with yourself afterwards.HYUFD said:
Plus if he got the nomination and Trump beat him (and history still fsbpurs an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House winning re election) then O'Rourke is done and someone like Bobby Kennedy's grandson Congressman Joseph P Kennedy III would be favourite in 2024rottenborough said:
Perhaps he genuinely hasn't made his mind up. Probably only gets one shot at it.Tissue_Price said:
Yep. I stand to be proved wrong in fairly short order, but this all looks like a somewhat calculated attempt to do things differently, because there is such appetite for that, especially on the left. @Richard_Nabavi notes he is inexperienced - well, yes and no. He's an experienced campaigner, who has previously beaten an incumbent in a House primary, and just given Ted Cruz a pretty good fright. His fundraising and campaigning skills are what he needs to win.rottenborough said:
And, given the American public elected Trump, his 6 years of House experience looks like a decent enough political CV, even though it would be traditional to have state or national-level responsibility first.
Most of all, I don't understand his tilt at Cruz if not with a view to running for President if he lost, which he must have anticipated.
Perhaps we shall see soon enough.0 -
That would be the way a sensible negotiation ought to have been conducted in the first place! It was a pretty fundamental red line of the EU ("sequencing" and all that).AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
At this point in 1995 Bob Dole was beating Bill Clinton and in 1983 Walter Mondale led Reagan and in 2011 Romney was tied with Obama in head to heads, it is early daysTissue_Price said:
History may favour Trump, but Betfair - and political wisdom based on Mueller etc. - doesn't. This is why the Democratic field is so high-profile and crowded; miss out now and you probably don't get a shot until 2028.HYUFD said:
Plus if he got the nomination and Trump beat him (and history still fsbpurs an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House winning re election) then O'Rourke is done and someone like Bobby Kennedy's grandson Congressman Joseph P Kennedy III would be favourite in 2024rottenborough said:
Perhaps he genuinely hasn't made his mind up. Probably only gets one shot at it.Tissue_Price said:
Yep. I stand to be proved wrong in fairly short order, but this all looks like a somewhat calculated attempt to do things differently, because there is such appetite for that, especially on the left. @Richard_Nabavi notes he is inexperienced - well, yes and no. He's an experienced campaigner, who has previously beaten an incumbent in a House primary, and just given Ted Cruz a pretty good fright. His fundraising and campaigning skills are what he needs to win.rottenborough said:
And, given the American public elected Trump, his 6 years of House experience looks like a decent enough political CV, even though it would be traditional to have state or national-level responsibility first.
Most of all, I don't understand his tilt at Cruz if not with a view to running for President if he lost, which he must have anticipated.
Perhaps we shall see soon enough.0 -
How do you think fundamentalist Leavers might respond to this idea?Tissue_Price said:
That would be the way a sensible negotiation ought to have been conducted in the first place! It was a pretty fundamental red line of the EU ("sequencing" and all that).AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721
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Which would require a rather different interpretation of "we can't legally negotiate a trade deal with someone who's still a member".AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
R4 news has just announced that no deal Brexit would mean any drivers with a Euro-flag GB numberplate would need to replace their plates immediately, and all drivers going abroad will need to display a GB sticker separate from the number plate.0
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A suggestion I have made before. BUT it only works if the UK Govt. goes full tilt with parallel preparations for a March 2021 No Deal Brexit. That would allow us a fairly level playing field in such negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721
And May could not be allowed to continue in post to oversee the trade deal negotiations. Just....no.
It also rather raises the question of "Well why the f*cking hell didn't you agree to do this two years ago, EU?"0 -
They'd hate it, obviously, even though it would be quite the concession from the EU. Could May accept it?AlastairMeeks said:
How do you think fundamentalist Leavers might respond to this idea?Tissue_Price said:
That would be the way a sensible negotiation ought to have been conducted in the first place! It was a pretty fundamental red line of the EU ("sequencing" and all that).AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
Be nice about the Bishop of Rome. I’m going to see him next week.TheScreamingEagles said:
Like the Bishop of Rome, Corbyn is infallible in the eyes of his followers.SandyRentool said:
Presumably at some point they will demand the deselection of Jezza when he votes for Brexit.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1091251437898788864Tissue_Price said:
And one more:NickPalmer said:Beto doesn't sound very promising - it's not as though nobody else was interested!
Some O/T things from the Labour corner which may interest people:
https://labourlist.org/2019/01/the-sdlp-fianna-fail-merger-and-how-it-could-affect-the-labour-party/
https://labourlist.org/2019/01/membership-numbers-election-prep-and-selections-alice-perrys-nec-report/
https://order-order.com/2019/02/01/chukas-local-party-seized-corbynites-mass-meeting/0 -
Splitting...AlastairMeeks said:
How do you think fundamentalist Leavers might respond to this idea?Tissue_Price said:
That would be the way a sensible negotiation ought to have been conducted in the first place! It was a pretty fundamental red line of the EU ("sequencing" and all that).AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
Well that was always rubbish. You'll not find me at the head of the queue among those who think:Harris_Tweed said:
Which would require a rather different interpretation of "we can't legally negotiate a trade deal with someone who's still a member".AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721
(a) the UK government negotiated well; or
(b) the EU negotiated well.
The British government was tough on entirely the wrong things and at the wrong time. The EU followed a self-defeating path of mulish obstinacy from a position of strength.0 -
Don't think writing to my MP will make a scintilla of difference. One Ms N Dorries.MarqueeMark said:
We should all write to our MPs, tell them to stop buggering about - and get Brexit done and dusted by 29th March. No Deal if they must - just get it done. "Because Viewcode is worried..."viewcode said:
Yes! I like this optimism! And it's not even slightly related to my bet on "leave on time", oh deary me no...Big_G_NorthWales said:I am feeling optimistic this morning and I predict we will sign TM deal, modified or not, and will leave on the 29th March 2019
(Plus, they can make a few bob themselves if they put some money on....)0 -
I completely agree. I always thought we should have asked for an extension to 5 years early on in the A50 process, to do everything. But of course the Tories wouldn't countenance not having left by the next GE.Tissue_Price said:
That would be the way a sensible negotiation ought to have been conducted in the first place! It was a pretty fundamental red line of the EU ("sequencing" and all that).AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721
Even as a firm Remainer, I could still live with that, it's a lot better than many of the other options on the table right now.
I just want to avoid getting to March 21st, the Commons facing a vote with no-deal and revoke A50 as the only 2 remaining options: will be absolute chaos if we get into that corner.0 -
No, I wasn't one of those 'many'.justin124 said:
Perhaps you were one of the many on here back in May 2017 who were so dismissive of the suggestion that the SNP would fall below 50 seats. Even a few days before Polling Day nationalist supporters were still in denial.Theuniondivvie said:
PB's Old Faithful spouts his stuff, as predictable as UK weather-related gridlock.justin124 said:
Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
It's not the point that you keep making, it's that you make the same one over & over & over again. Apart from the turgid & tedious repetition (30, 40 times?), it gives off more than a whiff of whistling in the dark
Why don't you get it out of your system and offer a piece to PB on why Labour under Corbyn with plummeting personal ratings & an ambiguous attitude to Brexit that's unpopular with LABOUR members, plus an invisible SLab leader, is going to make a comeback in anti Brexit Scotland. I'm sure it'd make fascinating reading.
Also a link to your opinions of SLab's chances at Holyrood in 2007 & 2011, & at the 2015GE would be good, just to prove you're not one of those types who predicted 4 out of the last 1 party surges.0 -
Yes, but we're dealing in probabilities.HYUFD said:
At this point in 1995 Bob Dole was beating Bill Clinton and in 1983 Walter Mondale led Reagan and in 2011 Romney was tied with Obama in head to heads, it is early daysTissue_Price said:
History may favour Trump, but Betfair - and political wisdom based on Mueller etc. - doesn't. This is why the Democratic field is so high-profile and crowded; miss out now and you probably don't get a shot until 2028.HYUFD said:
Plus if he got the nomination and Trump beat him (and history still fsbpurs an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House winning re election) then O'Rourke is done and someone like Bobby Kennedy's grandson Congressman Joseph P Kennedy III would be favourite in 2024rottenborough said:
Perhaps he genuinely hasn't made his mind up. Probably only gets one shot at it.Tissue_Price said:
Yep. I stand to be proved wrong in fairly short order, but this all looks like a somewhat calculated attempt to do things differently, because there is such appetite for that, especially on the left. @Richard_Nabavi notes he is inexperienced - well, yes and no. He's an experienced campaigner, who has previously beaten an incumbent in a House primary, and just given Ted Cruz a pretty good fright. His fundraising and campaigning skills are what he needs to win.rottenborough said:
And, given the American public elected Trump, his 6 years of House experience looks like a decent enough political CV, even though it would be traditional to have state or national-level responsibility first.
Most of all, I don't understand his tilt at Cruz if not with a view to running for President if he lost, which he must have anticipated.
Perhaps we shall see soon enough.
Everyone thought Bush 41 would get re-elected in 1992, hence the thin Democratic primaries that allowed Clinton to win. Clearly the Democratic crème aren't thinking that way this time.0 -
The talk from Hunt, &c, about a technical extension to A50 allows the Deal to be kept alive as an option on the table right up to the wire. This keeps the anti no deal ministers in the Government.tpfkar said:
I completely agree. I always thought we should have asked for an extension to 5 years early on in the A50 process, to do everything. But of course the Tories wouldn't countenance not having left by the next GE.Tissue_Price said:
That would be the way a sensible negotiation ought to have been conducted in the first place! It was a pretty fundamental red line of the EU ("sequencing" and all that).AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721
Even as a firm Remainer, I could still live with that, it's a lot better than many of the other options on the table right now.
I just want to avoid getting to March 21st, the Commons facing a vote with no-deal and revoke A50 as the only 2 remaining options: will be absolute chaos if we get into that corner.0 -
It wasn't just that, it was the EU hammering home the negotiating advantage that Article 50's provisions gave them.tpfkar said:
I completely agree. I always thought we should have asked for an extension to 5 years early on in the A50 process, to do everything. But of course the Tories wouldn't countenance not having left by the next GE.Tissue_Price said:
That would be the way a sensible negotiation ought to have been conducted in the first place! It was a pretty fundamental red line of the EU ("sequencing" and all that).AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721
[snip]0 -
Bush Snr was trying to get a 4th term re election for the GOP, Clinton sat out 1988 but ran in 1992 as he knew Bush would be more beatable then whatever the others thoughtTissue_Price said:
Yes, but we're dealing in probabilities.HYUFD said:
At this point in 1995 Bob Dole was beating Bill Clinton and in 1983 Walter Mondale led Reagan and in 2011 Romney was tied with Obama in head to heads, it is early daysTissue_Price said:
History may favour Trump, but Betfair - and political wisdom based on Mueller etc. - doesn't. This is why the Democratic field is so high-profile and crowded; miss out now and you probably don't get a shot until 2028.HYUFD said:
Plus if he got the nomination and Trump beat him (and history still fsbpurs an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House winning re election) then O'Rourke is done and someone like Bobby Kennedy's grandson Congressman Joseph P Kennedy III would be favourite in 2024rottenborough said:
Perhaps he genuinely hasn't made his mind up. Probably only gets one shot at it.Tissue_Price said:
Yep. I stand to be proved wrong in fairly short order, but this all looks like a somewhat calculated attempt to do things differently, because there is such appetite for that, especially on the left. @Richard_Nabavi notes he is inexperienced - well, yes and no. He's an experienced campaigner, who has previously beaten an incumbent in a House primary, and just given Ted Cruz a pretty good fright. His fundraising and campaigning skills are what he needs to win.rottenborough said:
And, given the American public elected Trump, his 6 years of House experience looks like a decent enough political CV, even though it would be traditional to have state or national-level responsibility first.
Most of all, I don't understand his tilt at Cruz if not with a view to running for President if he lost, which he must have anticipated.
Perhaps we shall see soon enough.
Everyone thought Bush 41 would get re-elected in 1992, hence the thin Democratic primaries that allowed Clinton to win. Clearly the Democratic crème aren't thinking that way this time.0 -
That would be an interesting caseSean_F said:
Spain became Spain through war, expelling hundreds of thousands of inhabitants in the process.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not only that, we obtained it via war, and Gibraltar only became British thanks to mass immigration.SandyRentool said:
"British-occupied Spain"TheScreamingEagles said:
We say it is a BOT.edmundintokyo said:
What do the British say it is???Big_G_NorthWales said:The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK
British Overseas Territory.
Prior to 1983 we called it a British Crown Colony.
If we had any sense of honour and shame we'd repudiate the treaty of Utrecht and give Gibraltar back to Spain.
Edit - The treaty of Utrecht also helped expand Britain's role in the slave trade.
SHAMEFUL.
We are however in breach of the Treaty of Utrecht, by allowing Jews to live in Gibraltar.
I assume they don’t have the survivability clause that is common boilerplate these days.
Perhaps Spain could claim our breach invalidates the treaty and they want the Rock returned0 -
I popped over to the Vatican last monthSandpit said:
Be nice about the Bishop of Rome. I’m going to see him next week.TheScreamingEagles said:
Like the Bishop of Rome, Corbyn is infallible in the eyes of his followers.SandyRentool said:
Presumably at some point they will demand the deselection of Jezza when he votes for Brexit.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1091251437898788864Tissue_Price said:
And one more:NickPalmer said:Beto doesn't sound very promising - it's not as though nobody else was interested!
Some O/T things from the Labour corner which may interest people:
https://labourlist.org/2019/01/the-sdlp-fianna-fail-merger-and-how-it-could-affect-the-labour-party/
https://labourlist.org/2019/01/membership-numbers-election-prep-and-selections-alice-perrys-nec-report/
https://order-order.com/2019/02/01/chukas-local-party-seized-corbynites-mass-meeting/ 0 -
I don't believe anyone in 2016 gave the status of Northern Ireland much thought - I confess I didn't. I can understand the EU's position - they have the SM and they want to protect it. It's our choice to leave so we needed to come up with a mechanism which would satisfy both the EU's requirements for the SM and our requirements for control of the borders including immigration and the status of a "third country" which we would have on departure.MarqueeMark said:
A suggestion I have made before. BUT it only works if the UK Govt. goes full tilt with parallel preparations for a March 2021 No Deal Brexit. That would allow us a fairly level playing field in such negotiations.
And May could not be allowed to continue in post to oversee the trade deal negotiations. Just....no.
It also rather raises the question of "Well why the f*cking hell didn't you agree to do this two years ago, EU?"
I can see two problems with the Forsyth tweet - first, all those people who have arranged "Liberation Day" parties for 29/3.19 will have to postpone them for two years while we remains full EU members with all the financial obligations.
Second, the tedious but considerable "we want this over with" faction will have a fit when they are told there are two more years of this to come.
I agree we need to make the preparations we apparently haven't made for the contingency of failing to reach an agreement (that's the aspect of it I find the most absurdly inept, that the Government and Civil Service could seemingly fail to consider the risks of No Deal from the beginning- it's basic risk analysis though the alternative and more credible version is they are prepared but it suits the political ends of Project Fear to make the public believe they are not).0 -
Surely both of those are plus points.stodge said:
I can see two problems with the Forsyth tweet - first, all those people who have arranged "Liberation Day" parties for 29/3.19 will have to postpone them for two years while we remains full EU members with all the financial obligations.
Second, the tedious but considerable "we want this over with" faction will have a fit when they are told there are two more years of this to come.
0 -
Just saw thisEl_Capitano said:Modern-day Labour reminds me more and more of Alan Bleasdale's GBH every day.
https://twitter.com/HuckFem/status/1091085900925292544
https://order-order.com/2019/02/01/corbyns-israel-false-flag-conspiracy/
So, is he just plain stupid or what???
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TheScreamingEagles said:
A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
So he didn’t live in the ward, and didn’t know anyone he could call a friend who did!Sean_F said:
Zero votes.logical_song said:
Did the 'Kippery SDP' really get zero votes, or is that a rounded down 0.0%Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes.Theuniondivvie said:Is this the new Kippery SDP?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1091275377308303360
Who nominated him, or was it like the nominations from MPs for Corbyn that they wanted to ‘widen the field’?0 -
Tbf there would have been a great deal of doubt on the ownership of the hairs on Roger Stone's head.TheScreamingEagles said:
Anyone curious about the Nixon tattoo can see it here. Pretty good sodomy repellent if you're going to be spending some time in the big house I'd say.
https://www.thecut.com/2017/03/the-many-looks-of-roger-stone.html
0 -
How posh do you have to be to reach the interface point between 'sledge' and 'toboggan'?
Kate Silverton has just used the latter.0 -
That Scottish Tories bet saved my skin on election night, after a stupid foray into the spreads on seat numbers.TheScreamingEagles said:
Name and shame. There were many PBers who were expecting the SNP to fall below 50 seats and backed the 20/1 on the Scottish Tories to have more than 10 Scottish MPs.justin124 said:
Perhaps you were one of the many on here back in May 2017 who were so dismissive of the suggestion that the SNP would fall below 50 seats. Even a few days before Polling Day nationalist supporters were still in denial.Theuniondivvie said:
PB's Old Faithful spouts his stuff, as predictable as UK weather-related gridlock.justin124 said:
Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
Iirc in May 2017 you were saying the best thing for Labour was for Corbyn to have a heart attack.0 -
Calling it a "toboggan" was why they hanged the monkey in Hartlepool....SandyRentool said:How posh do you have to be to reach the interface point between 'sledge' and 'toboggan'?
Kate Silverton has just used the latter.0 -
Australians do sledging. ROW toboggan.SandyRentool said:How posh do you have to be to reach the interface point between 'sledge' and 'toboggan'?
Kate Silverton has just used the latter.0 -
Some of those outfits make Roger Stone look like a Batman villain.Theuniondivvie said:
Tbf there would have been a great deal of doubt on the ownership of the hairs on Roger Stone's head.TheScreamingEagles said:
Anyone curious about the Nixon tattoo can see it here. Pretty good sodomy repellent if you're going to be spending some time in the big house I'd say.
https://www.thecut.com/2017/03/the-many-looks-of-roger-stone.html0 -
Er, we have the financial obligations for two years anyway!stodge said:
I don't believe anyone in 2016 gave the status of Northern Ireland much thought - I confess I didn't. I can understand the EU's position - they have the SM and they want to protect it. It's our choice to leave so we needed to come up with a mechanism which would satisfy both the EU's requirements for the SM and our requirements for control of the borders including immigration and the status of a "third country" which we would have on departure.MarqueeMark said:
A suggestion I have made before. BUT it only works if the UK Govt. goes full tilt with parallel preparations for a March 2021 No Deal Brexit. That would allow us a fairly level playing field in such negotiations.
And May could not be allowed to continue in post to oversee the trade deal negotiations. Just....no.
It also rather raises the question of "Well why the f*cking hell didn't you agree to do this two years ago, EU?"
I can see two problems with the Forsyth tweet - first, all those people who have arranged "Liberation Day" parties for 29/3.19 will have to postpone them for two years while we remains full EU members with all the financial obligations.
Second, the tedious but considerable "we want this over with" faction will have a fit when they are told there are two more years of this to come.
I agree we need to make the preparations we apparently haven't made for the contingency of failing to reach an agreement (that's the aspect of it I find the most absurdly inept, that the Government and Civil Service could seemingly fail to consider the risks of No Deal from the beginning- it's basic risk analysis though the alternative and more credible version is they are prepared but it suits the political ends of Project Fear to make the public believe they are not).
The "we want it over with faction" can be ignored, as they don't understand the difference between the Withdrawl Agreement and the Trade Agreement.... Even No Deal Brexit will still require negotiaitng of trade agreements. Assuming we have the manpower, no reason why we can't do as we should have been doing ayway if the EU hadn't been such twats - negotiating them in parallel.0 -
I am rather looking forward to that particular showtpfkar said:
I completely agree. I always thought we should have asked for an extension to 5 years early on in the A50 process, to do everything. But of course the Tories wouldn't countenance not having left by the next GE.Tissue_Price said:
That would be the way a sensible negotiation ought to have been conducted in the first place! It was a pretty fundamental red line of the EU ("sequencing" and all that).AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721
Even as a firm Remainer, I could still live with that, it's a lot better than many of the other options on the table right now.
I just want to avoid getting to March 21st, the Commons facing a vote with no-deal and revoke A50 as the only 2 remaining options: will be absolute chaos if we get into that corner. 0 -
It would effectively mean the EU acknowledging that the sequencing idea was a stupid one. But we shouldn’t make an issue of that because this is quite a good solution to where we are todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I heard dafter ideasAlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
Please tell the Danish bacon suppliers to send some to the Western shops in the Middle East. Most of it comes from the UK at the moment, and if there’s chaos there will be no exports out here!kingbongo said:
On Danish radio this morning they were saying it was good, as they could send all the pork exports to the Japanese instead of the English (they always use England and English for Britain) - proving that fantasy Brexit outcomes aren't the preserve of the BritishDura_Ace said:
It's ok the UK can take full advantage of it for 57 days. Isn't Brexit brilliant?OldKingCole said:Just popped up on my Facebook page:
'Dubbed the world's largest free trade agreement, the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement has entered into force today!
The deal removes duties on almost all agricultural and industrial products and opens up the service sector and procurement. For the first time, the text also includes the countries' Paris climate deal commitments.'
Great job, Liam......... er...........0 -
Beto will be on the ticket as VP...0
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I think that's quite a likely eventual outcome.HisMajestyKingZog said:Beto will be on the ticket as VP...
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I was unaware of a referendum there and still use 'Llanelly' when sending post to family in the area. In a similar way, I continue to refer to Cardigan rather than Ceredigion and Anglesey rather than Ynys Mon. Interestingly it is rare to hear people outside the Welsh speaking community refer to Abergwaun or Abertawe instead of Fishguard or Swansea.YBarddCwsc said:
It is Cair Guinntguic not Norwich.justin124 said:
And it is Llanelly not Llanelli.YBarddCwsc said:
None of your imperialist names, please.justin124 said:
There are 7 SNP seats more vulnerable to Labour than is Aberconway in North Wales.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No. I lived in Scotland when labour was as dominant as they are in Wales but the SNP being a party of the left, and of course very pro Independence, managed to be very pro business especially under Salmond and appealed across the divide. That appeal still exists but of course it's Independence obsession opens the way for a pro union - pro business conservative party under a very capable leader to provide a genuine alternative.Stereotomy said:
Do you think that somebody who aimed to predict elections could do a good job by getting a single person from each region with similar credentials and asking them what they think will happen?Big_G_NorthWales said:
My knowledge and connection with Scotland goes back 68 years, having lived there, been married there, have family across Scotland, have voted there, and regular go back to the north of Scotland.
The SNP have replaced labour as the party of the left but also are pro business and continue to occupy the space that labour would have previously dominated. There is no evidence labour are making inroads into the SNP
Personally I'd be extremely skeptical.
Of course it could change but it is not happening at present and in any GE soon I would expect both conservative and labour to lose seats to the SNP
It is Harare, not Salisbury.
It is Aberconwy, not Aberconway.
It is Llanelly and Mynydd Mawr Railway Company, as that became defunct before the anglicised name Llanelly was changed to Llanelli (by referendum!)0 -
I suspect it was not your intention for this to provoke warm and fuzzy feelings but it does with me. Displaying a GB sticker on the car for a European road trip, I remember my dad used to let me do that before we set off. Made me feel quite grown up and special, two things that I have rarely felt since.IanB2 said:R4 news has just announced that no deal Brexit would mean any drivers with a Euro-flag GB numberplate would need to replace their plates immediately, and all drivers going abroad will need to display a GB sticker separate from the number plate.
In fact, No Deal generally is starting to take on a nice 70s vibe in my mind. Prawn cocktails, standing on the terraces, capstan navy cut, chopper bikes, ben sherman shirts, levi stapress, monkey boots, ford zodiacs, knowing every single song in the top 20, snogging in the cemetery, and control over our money, laws and border ... what is not to like?0 -
2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.0 -
Nah, they can keep themselves busy on the No Deal preparations.....Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.0 -
I'd imagine agenda item number one for the LDs - and maybe SNP - for any firm coalition would be "right.. who's gonna be PM? Because we ain't going in with Magic Grandpa". Apart from the ideological difference, I don't see him offering to compromise much from his end.HYUFD said:
Labour plus SNP likely with LD support on most issues but on those numbers almost certainly the Tories will have a majority in EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
(Wasn't that the same reason - apart from arithmetic - that LD/Lab talks broke down in 2010?)0 -
Not very - toboggan as a noun is irredeemably middle class.SandyRentool said:How posh do you have to be to reach the interface point between 'sledge' and 'toboggan'?
Kate Silverton has just used the latter.
Posh people use a sledge to go tobogganing.
Or just use a tea tray (my Dad once used a tea tray to slide into Everest base camp in some style)0 -
I think you protest too much. Are you seriously denying that Labour went from one seat to seven in 2017 and that this came as a surprise to SNP supporters at the time? Do you really attach no significance at all to the fact that polls in Scotland had Labour in the 13% - 17% range in early May 2017 yet Labour emerged on 8th June with more than 27%. The polls continue to pitch them in the range of 25% - 28% , and in the light of that it is hardly unduly ambitious to suggest that Labour might well poll 30% next time - particularly as Labour's internal problems are now matched by similar dissension within SNP ranks.Theuniondivvie said:
No, I wasn't one of those 'many'.justin124 said:
Perhaps you were one of the many on here back in May 2017 who were so dismissive of the suggestion that the SNP would fall below 50 seats. Even a few days before Polling Day nationalist supporters were still in denial.Theuniondivvie said:
PB's Old Faithful spouts his stuff, as predictable as UK weather-related gridlock.justin124 said:
Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
It's not the point that you keep making, it's that you make the same one over & over & over again. Apart from the turgid & tedious repetition (30, 40 times?), it gives off more than a whiff of whistling in the dark
Why don't you get it out of your system and offer a piece to PB on why Labour under Corbyn with plummeting personal ratings & an ambiguous attitude to Brexit that's unpopular with LABOUR members, plus an invisible SLab leader, is going to make a comeback in anti Brexit Scotland. I'm sure it'd make fascinating reading.
Also a link to your opinions of SLab's chances at Holyrood in 2007 & 2011, & at the 2015GE would be good, just to prove you're not one of those types who predicted 4 out of the last 1 party surges.0 -
Visiting my son in Copenhagen last week, he mentioned that they send the best bacon to the UK and are left with the dross for their own consumption. They could send the dross to the Japanese and eat the good stuff now.
Not going to happen, though, is it? Not unless we become vegans. How would the UK vegans cope with having no one to virtue-signal to? I'm guessing here, because I can honestly say I've never met a vegan. I'm happy for them to eat grass and leave the good food to us.0 -
I'm looking forward to the VP market going up on Betfair exchange...Tissue_Price said:
I think that's quite a likely eventual outcome.HisMajestyKingZog said:Beto will be on the ticket as VP...
0 -
If you apply Mike's dictum that leader satisfaction is the key to predicting election performance, then Corbyn's diminishing metrics, mostly worse in Scotland than the UK average, indicate trouble ahead (and yes, I accept the last YouGov poll on this was only a 155 strong sub-sample).TheJezziah said:
As someone who lives in Wales and has lived here almost all my life I could not have told you exactly how the election would have gone in 2017 in Wales or how the next one will.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour are underwater in Scotland as those on here he know Scotland will affirmjustin124 said:
The last poll I saw had Labour & Tories both on 26% - ie little changed from 2017 though Tories down 3 %. TSE referred me to a crossbreak putting Labour ahead with SNP in 3rd place - not that I take that too seriously. No Scotland wide polls since internal SNP ructions kicked off.Big_G_NorthWales said:
At present labour are underwater in Scotland with no sign of any chance of recovery anytime soonjustin124 said:
We shall see. Difficult to see Labour underperforming 2017 there even before considering the impact of Salmond /Sturgeon shenanigans.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Predictable comment Justin but wrongjustin124 said:
Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
Unless you or the people you know have magical powers it will be much the same for you and the people you know. So despite your Scottish connections you cannot tell people exactly how the Scottish part of a general election will go. Especially seen as we don't even know when that would be.
If you could I assume you would have proved incredibly useful for elections here in the past, despite the fact you don't bet others would bet on what you know is going to happen (after you had proved your foresight at previous elections)
Justin's arguments might be wrong but knowing people from somewhere does not equal knowing exactly how an election will go in that area.
Edit: To clarify I'm not claiming any particular side will do better/worse in Scotland, just the argument about knowing people from an area equalling perfect foresight into electoral future seems flawed.
0 -
She can probably find someone to help her read it, if that's the problem?philiph said:
Don't think writing to my MP will make a scintilla of difference. One Ms N Dorries.MarqueeMark said:
We should all write to our MPs, tell them to stop buggering about - and get Brexit done and dusted by 29th March. No Deal if they must - just get it done. "Because Viewcode is worried..."viewcode said:
Yes! I like this optimism! And it's not even slightly related to my bet on "leave on time", oh deary me no...Big_G_NorthWales said:I am feeling optimistic this morning and I predict we will sign TM deal, modified or not, and will leave on the 29th March 2019
(Plus, they can make a few bob themselves if they put some money on....)0 -
-
You're forgetting that for some of us Middle Class is posh.Charles said:
Not very - toboggan as a noun is irredeemably middle class.SandyRentool said:How posh do you have to be to reach the interface point between 'sledge' and 'toboggan'?
Kate Silverton has just used the latter.
Posh people use a sledge to go tobogganing.
Or just use a tea tray (my Dad once used a tea tray to slide into Everest base camp in some style)
I used to use my sledge to go sledging.0 -
I see you skimmed over my initial point about repetition. Oh well..justin124 said:
I think you protest too much. Are you seriously denying that Labour went from one seat to seven in 2017 and that this came as a surprise to SNP supporters at the time? Do you really attach no significance at all to the fact that polls in Scotland had Labour in the 13% - 17% range in early May 2017 yet Labour emerged on 8th June with more than 27%. The polls continue to pitch them in the range of 25% - 28% , and in the light of that it is hardly unduly ambitious to suggest that Labour might well poll 30% next time - particularly as Labour's internal problems are now matched by similar dissension within SNP ranks.Theuniondivvie said:
No, I wasn't one of those 'many'.justin124 said:
Perhaps you were one of the many on here back in May 2017 who were so dismissive of the suggestion that the SNP would fall below 50 seats. Even a few days before Polling Day nationalist supporters were still in denial.Theuniondivvie said:
PB's Old Faithful spouts his stuff, as predictable as UK weather-related gridlock.justin124 said:
Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
It's not the point that you keep making, it's that you make the same one over & over & over again. Apart from the turgid & tedious repetition (30, 40 times?), it gives off more than a whiff of whistling in the dark
Why don't you get it out of your system and offer a piece to PB on why Labour under Corbyn with plummeting personal ratings & an ambiguous attitude to Brexit that's unpopular with LABOUR members, plus an invisible SLab leader, is going to make a comeback in anti Brexit Scotland. I'm sure it'd make fascinating reading.
Also a link to your opinions of SLab's chances at Holyrood in 2007 & 2011, & at the 2015GE would be good, just to prove you're not one of those types who predicted 4 out of the last 1 party surges.0 -
Funny you should say that..TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of those outfits make Roger Stone look like a Batman villain.Theuniondivvie said:
Tbf there would have been a great deal of doubt on the ownership of the hairs on Roger Stone's head.TheScreamingEagles said:
Anyone curious about the Nixon tattoo can see it here. Pretty good sodomy repellent if you're going to be spending some time in the big house I'd say.
https://www.thecut.com/2017/03/the-many-looks-of-roger-stone.html
https://news.avclub.com/trump-advisor-roger-stone-keeps-tweeting-this-photo-of-17982631280 -
The trouble is, if the EU don't want an extension past the Euro-elections that limits it to more or less the time we currently have until the deadline. It's difficult to see how that helps, because it's not enough time to restart negotations from scratch wth different red lines and not enough time for a referendum (even if either of those things were politically acceptable).stodge said:
Once again, we see the tired old line it's all Europe's fault (having blamed those who voted REMAIN, the ERG, Jeremy Corbyn and anyone else within range).
I would love to hear for once a mea culpa from the May supporters admitting that perhaps in just a tiny regard, the Prime Minister might just bear a scintilla of responsibility for the current situation.
What we get regrettably are vacuous personal slurs against individuals in the EU - Juncker (Druncker you mean), Sabine Weygand (a "fat bossy German" as someone on here said the other day), Barnier (untrustworthy) etc and at the slightest hint of an attack on the UK, up go the hands in horror - it's another outrage comparable to the "humiliation" of Theresa May at Salzburg and now the perfidious Europeans are trying to take Gibraltar (95%+ REMAIN voting but who cares) from us.
This isn't a staring match to see who blinks first though it seems like it. The EU move today to waive any notion of visas and charging for visas for UK citizens if we leave without a Deal is a generous gesture to be welcomed.
Now, before everyone gets all irate I'm not being sufficiently patriotic, the EU aren't blameless in this and it's quite clear there is an underlying agenda to make us "pay" (poor choice of words) for leaving pour ne pas encourager les autres as it were and it may be the real crisis is over Italy and the Italian banks and that potentially could be much worse for the EU.
For now, as has so often happened in history, we are sleepwalking toward a situation because none of the alternatives work for at least one or more of the key players.
Revocation would destroy the Conservative Party (which I'd consider no great loss but that might be a minority view). May has even turned on her own WDA by passing the "magic unicorn" version which she must know the EU won't accept so it was a cynical political gimmick to try to hold together her Cabinet and Party.
So it's either an extension to A50 or all hell breaks loose on March 30th when the population discover the last Big Mac is being served in a McDonalds in Leeds and Waitrose runs out of avocadoes.
If we can't find a resolution in the 8 weeks we have left, what reason is there to think we'll be able to find a resolution two months later?0 -
As an aside I sat in on a conversation between a Pole and a Frenchman yesterday
They noted the significant strategic advantage that the commonwealth gives their U.K. competitors - the U.K. companies find it very easy to enter and penetrate these markets (and get a lot of help from the embassies). In this particular business volume is critical due to high fixed costs and low variable costs.
Found it was interesting as it was first time I’d ever heard anyone articulate that in a non political context0 -
What - from the top???Charles said:(my Dad once used a tea tray to slide into Everest base camp in some style)
0 -
If the government were in a position to screw their Eurosceptic wing, the whole thing would have been sorted out by now.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.0 -
I've never sledged or tobogganed. Growing up in the fens, the only slopes you'll see are the bridges over the Witham - a mecca for learner drivers.
Isn't it nice to not have to comment about Brexit. Perhaps we're all adjusting to it?0 -
As a remain voter who now supports Leave this is a good option. It should never have been sequenced in that way in any case. The most disturbing thing for me that has come out over the last few days is that by signing the Good Friday agreement the government has committed to free movement across a border, without reference to possible membership of the EU. I assume that there has always been a get out mechanism like A50Charles said:
It would effectively mean the EU acknowledging that the sequencing idea was a stupid one. But we shouldn’t make an issue of that because this is quite a good solution to where we are todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I heard dafter ideasAlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
There’s always the halfwit class but I suspect many are keen to find a face saving way out of the corner they’ve painted themselves into. Same goes for the DUP.MarqueeMark said:
Nah, they can keep themselves busy on the No Deal preparations.....Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.0 -
I suspect you are simply ignoring facts which you find unpalatable.Theuniondivvie said:
I see you skimmed over my initial point about repetition. Oh well..justin124 said:
I think you protest too much. Are you seriously denying that Labour went from one seat to seven in 2017 and that this came as a surprise to SNP supporters at the time? Do you really attach no significance at all to the fact that polls in Scotland had Labour in the 13% - 17% range in early May 2017 yet Labour emerged on 8th June with more than 27%. The polls continue to pitch them in the range of 25% - 28% , and in the light of that it is hardly unduly ambitious to suggest that Labour might well poll 30% next time - particularly as Labour's internal problems are now matched by similar dissension within SNP ranks.Theuniondivvie said:
No, I wasn't one of those 'many'.justin124 said:
Perhaps you were one of the many on here back in May 2017 who were so dismissive of the suggestion that the SNP would fall below 50 seats. Even a few days before Polling Day nationalist supporters were still in denial.Theuniondivvie said:
PB's Old Faithful spouts his stuff, as predictable as UK weather-related gridlock.justin124 said:
Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
It's not the point that you keep making, it's that you make the same one over & over & over again. Apart from the turgid & tedious repetition (30, 40 times?), it gives off more than a whiff of whistling in the dark
Why don't you get it out of your system and offer a piece to PB on why Labour under Corbyn with plummeting personal ratings & an ambiguous attitude to Brexit that's unpopular with LABOUR members, plus an invisible SLab leader, is going to make a comeback in anti Brexit Scotland. I'm sure it'd make fascinating reading.
Also a link to your opinions of SLab's chances at Holyrood in 2007 & 2011, & at the 2015GE would be good, just to prove you're not one of those types who predicted 4 out of the last 1 party surges.0 -
Cardigan -> Aberteifi but Cardiganshire -> Ceredigion.justin124 said:
I was unaware of a referendum there and still use 'Llanelly' when sending post to family in the area. In a similar way, I continue to refer to Cardigan rather than Ceredigion and Anglesey rather than Ynys Mon. Interestingly it is rare to hear people outside the Welsh speaking community refer to Abergwaun or Abertawe instead of Fishguard or Swansea.
I am always interested in your bulletins on how well Labour is doing in Wales and Scotland from Norwich North.
0 -
Mr Charles,
"my Dad once used a tea tray to slide into Everest base camp in some style."
The post of the day!0 -
My other half is a Kiwi and says they don't actually eat much lamb in New Zealand as it all goes for export.CD13 said:Visiting my son in Copenhagen last week, he mentioned that they send the best bacon to the UK and are left with the dross for their own consumption. They could send the dross to the Japanese and eat the good stuff now.
Not going to happen, though, is it? Not unless we become vegans. How would the UK vegans cope with having no one to virtue-signal to? I'm guessing here, because I can honestly say I've never met a vegan. I'm happy for them to eat grass and leave the good food to us.0 -
But all of those were pretty vanilla compared to the present incumbent.HYUFD said:
At this point in 1995 Bob Dole was beating Bill Clinton and in 1983 Walter Mondale led Reagan and in 2011 Romney was tied with Obama in head to heads, it is early daysTissue_Price said:
History may favour Trump, but Betfair - and political wisdom based on Mueller etc. - doesn't. This is why the Democratic field is so high-profile and crowded; miss out now and you probably don't get a shot until 2028.HYUFD said:
Plus if he got the nomination and Trump beat him (and history still fsbpurs an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House winning re election) then O'Rourke is done and someone like Bobby Kennedy's grandson Congressman Joseph P Kennedy III would be favourite in 2024rottenborough said:
Perhaps he genuinely hasn't made his mind up. Probably only gets one shot at it.Tissue_Price said:
Yep. I stand to be proved wrong in fairly short order, but this all looks like a somewhat calculated attempt to do things differently, because there is such appetite for that, especially on the left. @Richard_Nabavi notes he is inexperienced - well, yes and no. He's an experienced campaigner, who has previously beaten an incumbent in a House primary, and just given Ted Cruz a pretty good fright. His fundraising and campaigning skills are what he needs to win.rottenborough said:
And, given the American public elected Trump, his 6 years of House experience looks like a decent enough political CV, even though it would be traditional to have state or national-level responsibility first.
Most of all, I don't understand his tilt at Cruz if not with a view to running for President if he lost, which he must have anticipated.
Perhaps we shall see soon enough.
He's more akin to Korean intestine soup - it's devotees love it, but good luck to making any converts by 2020.0 -
It does raise the issue of the EU elections, but we should just waive our right to participate.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.
"Look, we're leaving anyway - and the last thing you guys need is Farage with an extra couple of dozen loons sat behind him...."0 -
The WA needed their votes to pass, an extension doesn't :-)Chris said:
If the government were in a position to screw their Eurosceptic wing, the whole thing would have been sorted out by now.
Normally of course they'd VoNC her immediately, but helpfully the ERG already blew their chance at that and can't have another go until December.
0 -
I grew up in Haverfordwest , Pembrokeshire - though do not recall commenting on elections in Wales beyond my own opposition to Devolution. .YBarddCwsc said:
Cardigan -> Aberteifi but Cardiganshire -> Ceredigion.justin124 said:
I was unaware of a referendum there and still use 'Llanelly' when sending post to family in the area. In a similar way, I continue to refer to Cardigan rather than Ceredigion and Anglesey rather than Ynys Mon. Interestingly it is rare to hear people outside the Welsh speaking community refer to Abergwaun or Abertawe instead of Fishguard or Swansea.
I am always interested in your bulletins on how well Labour is doing in Wales and Scotland from Norwich North.0 -
The Good Friday Agreement is a revelation of the last few days?Nemtynakht said:
As a remain voter who now supports Leave this is a good option. It should never have been sequenced in that way in any case. The most disturbing thing for me that has come out over the last few days is that by signing the Good Friday agreement the government has committed to free movement across a border, without reference to possible membership of the EU. I assume that there has always been a get out mechanism like A50Charles said:
It would effectively mean the EU acknowledging that the sequencing idea was a stupid one. But we shouldn’t make an issue of that because this is quite a good solution to where we are todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I heard dafter ideasAlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
I cherish the certainty of people here. I particularly enjoyed somebody considering themselves an expert on New Caledonian politics on the basis of a 48 hour stopover.YBarddCwsc said:
Cardigan -> Aberteifi but Cardiganshire -> Ceredigion.justin124 said:
I was unaware of a referendum there and still use 'Llanelly' when sending post to family in the area. In a similar way, I continue to refer to Cardigan rather than Ceredigion and Anglesey rather than Ynys Mon. Interestingly it is rare to hear people outside the Welsh speaking community refer to Abergwaun or Abertawe instead of Fishguard or Swansea.
I am always interested in your bulletins on how well Labour is doing in Wales and Scotland from Norwich North.0 -
Highly undemocratic. If we are staying in we should get a vote.MarqueeMark said:
It does raise the issue of the EU elections, but we should just waive our right to participate.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.
"Look, we're leaving anyway - and the last thing you guys need is Farage with an extra couple of dozen loons sat behind him...."
Same as if Scotland was going to leave the UK but hadn't yet they'd get a vote in Parliamentary elections.0 -
That that’s how it should have been done in the first place!AlastairMeeks said:
How do you think fundamentalist Leavers might respond to this idea?Tissue_Price said:
That would be the way a sensible negotiation ought to have been conducted in the first place! It was a pretty fundamental red line of the EU ("sequencing" and all that).AlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
Good afternoon, everyone.0
-
I suspect you underestimate my distaste for parrots.justin124 said:
I suspect you are simply ignoring facts which you find unpalatable.Theuniondivvie said:
I see you skimmed over my initial point about repetition. Oh well..justin124 said:
I think you protest too much. Are you seriously denying that Labour went from one seat to seven in 2017 and that this came as a surprise to SNP supporters at the time? Do you really attach no significance at all to the fact that polls in Scotland had Labour in the 13% - 17% range in early May 2017 yet Labour emerged on 8th June with more than 27%. The polls continue to pitch them in the range of 25% - 28% , and in the light of that it is hardly unduly ambitious to suggest that Labour might well poll 30% next time - particularly as Labour's internal problems are now matched by similar dissension within SNP ranks.Theuniondivvie said:
No, I wasn't one of those 'many'.justin124 said:
Perhaps you were one of the many on here back in May 2017 who were so dismissive of the suggestion that the SNP would fall below 50 seats. Even a few days before Polling Day nationalist supporters were still in denial.Theuniondivvie said:
PB's Old Faithful spouts his stuff, as predictable as UK weather-related gridlock.justin124 said:
Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
It's not the point that you keep making, it's that you make the same one over & over & over again. Apart from the turgid & tedious repetition (30, 40 times?), it gives off more than a whiff of whistling in the dark
Why don't you get it out of your system and offer a piece to PB on why Labour under Corbyn with plummeting personal ratings & an ambiguous attitude to Brexit that's unpopular with LABOUR members, plus an invisible SLab leader, is going to make a comeback in anti Brexit Scotland. I'm sure it'd make fascinating reading.
Also a link to your opinions of SLab's chances at Holyrood in 2007 & 2011, & at the 2015GE would be good, just to prove you're not one of those types who predicted 4 out of the last 1 party surges.0 -
The cakeist tendency is strong with this one.Philip_Thompson said:
Highly undemocratic. If we are staying in we should get a vote.MarqueeMark said:
It does raise the issue of the EU elections, but we should just waive our right to participate.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.
"Look, we're leaving anyway - and the last thing you guys need is Farage with an extra couple of dozen loons sat behind him...."
Same as if Scotland was going to leave the UK but hadn't yet they'd get a vote in Parliamentary elections.0 -
Indeed this is what should have been done from day one. Two years to negotiate a deal is what A50 should have been used for.Charles said:
It would effectively mean the EU acknowledging that the sequencing idea was a stupid one. But we shouldn’t make an issue of that because this is quite a good solution to where we are todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I heard dafter ideasAlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
As I suggested yesterday, I doubt the issue was even considered in 1998.. Blair and Mandelson in their first flushes of Euro-enthusiasm. If someone had said "what about if we leave?", they'd have got a weary stare from the others and told to shut up.Nemtynakht said:
As a remain voter who now supports Leave this is a good option. It should never have been sequenced in that way in any case. The most disturbing thing for me that has come out over the last few days is that by signing the Good Friday agreement the government has committed to free movement across a border, without reference to possible membership of the EU. I assume that there has always been a get out mechanism like A50Charles said:
It would effectively mean the EU acknowledging that the sequencing idea was a stupid one. But we shouldn’t make an issue of that because this is quite a good solution to where we are todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I heard dafter ideasAlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721
Rightly or wrongly, I'm sure a lot of laws/treaties are drawn up making assumptions like that.
0 -
Has to be very possible. He looks like Alan Partridge but that is no drawback at all in America.HisMajestyKingZog said:Beto will be on the ticket as VP...
I have a hunch that Hillary has not relinquished the dream. I've backed her at long double digits - a back to lay strategy obviously.0 -
How?Nigelb said:
The cakeist tendency is strong with this one.Philip_Thompson said:
Highly undemocratic. If we are staying in we should get a vote.MarqueeMark said:
It does raise the issue of the EU elections, but we should just waive our right to participate.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.
"Look, we're leaving anyway - and the last thing you guys need is Farage with an extra couple of dozen loons sat behind him...."
Same as if Scotland was going to leave the UK but hadn't yet they'd get a vote in Parliamentary elections.
If we are out then no elections. If we are in then hold the elections.
How is that cakeist?0 -
Nah - although the objective (don’t ask why!) was to have a silver service tea party at the top although they never made it all the way...MarqueeMark said:
What - from the top???Charles said:(my Dad once used a tea tray to slide into Everest base camp in some style)
This was from a ridge above base camp - he’d hurt his leg and didn’t think he could walk along the edge of the basin and down that way so he just went over the top...0 -
we made do with a heavy duty plastic sack from the local farm with an old cushion inside. went faster than most sledges and didnt break your ankle if a runaway hit you.SandyRentool said:
You're forgetting that for some of us Middle Class is posh.Charles said:
Not very - toboggan as a noun is irredeemably middle class.SandyRentool said:How posh do you have to be to reach the interface point between 'sledge' and 'toboggan'?
Kate Silverton has just used the latter.
Posh people use a sledge to go tobogganing.
Or just use a tea tray (my Dad once used a tea tray to slide into Everest base camp in some style)
I used to use my sledge to go sledging.0 -
Why would you include a get out mechanism in the GFA? It was supposed to settle things permanently. But no one thought through the black swan scenarios properlyNemtynakht said:
As a remain voter who now supports Leave this is a good option. It should never have been sequenced in that way in any case. The most disturbing thing for me that has come out over the last few days is that by signing the Good Friday agreement the government has committed to free movement across a border, without reference to possible membership of the EU. I assume that there has always been a get out mechanism like A50Charles said:
It would effectively mean the EU acknowledging that the sequencing idea was a stupid one. But we shouldn’t make an issue of that because this is quite a good solution to where we are todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I heard dafter ideasAlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
The screenshot suggests appointing MEPs. Presumably the current lot.MarqueeMark said:
It does raise the issue of the EU elections, but we should just waive our right to participate.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.
"Look, we're leaving anyway - and the last thing you guys need is Farage with an extra couple of dozen loons sat behind him...."0 -
Considering the Common Travel Area has existed since 1923 I don't see why it even matters.Harris_Tweed said:
As I suggested yesterday, I doubt the issue was even considered in 1998.. Blair and Mandelson in their first flushes of Euro-enthusiasm. If someone had said "what about if we leave?", they'd have got a weary stare from the others and told to shut up.Nemtynakht said:
As a remain voter who now supports Leave this is a good option. It should never have been sequenced in that way in any case. The most disturbing thing for me that has come out over the last few days is that by signing the Good Friday agreement the government has committed to free movement across a border, without reference to possible membership of the EU. I assume that there has always been a get out mechanism like A50Charles said:
It would effectively mean the EU acknowledging that the sequencing idea was a stupid one. But we shouldn’t make an issue of that because this is quite a good solution to where we are todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I heard dafter ideasAlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721
Rightly or wrongly, I'm sure a lot of laws/treaties are drawn up making assumptions like that.0 -
Luxury...paulyork64 said:
we made do with a heavy duty plastic sack from the local farm with an old cushion inside. went faster than most sledges and didnt break your ankle if a runaway hit you.SandyRentool said:
You're forgetting that for some of us Middle Class is posh.Charles said:
Not very - toboggan as a noun is irredeemably middle class.SandyRentool said:How posh do you have to be to reach the interface point between 'sledge' and 'toboggan'?
Kate Silverton has just used the latter.
Posh people use a sledge to go tobogganing.
Or just use a tea tray (my Dad once used a tea tray to slide into Everest base camp in some style)
I used to use my sledge to go sledging.0 -
It used to be that on the southbound A470 cost road, the signs all gave distances to Abertawe (only), but a few miles north of that city they changed to being bilingual.justin124 said:
I was unaware of a referendum there and still use 'Llanelly' when sending post to family in the area. In a similar way, I continue to refer to Cardigan rather than Ceredigion and Anglesey rather than Ynys Mon. Interestingly it is rare to hear people outside the Welsh speaking community refer to Abergwaun or Abertawe instead of Fishguard or Swansea.YBarddCwsc said:
It is Cair Guinntguic not Norwich.justin124 said:
And it is Llanelly not Llanelli.YBarddCwsc said:
None of your imperialist names, please.justin124 said:
There are 7 SNP seats more vulnerable to Labour than is Aberconway in North Wales.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No. I lived in Scotland when labour was as dominant as they are in Wales but the SNP being a party of the left, and of course very pro Independence, managed to be very pro business especially under Salmond and appealed across the divide. That appeal still exists but of course it's Independence obsession opens the way for a pro union - pro business conservative party under a very capable leader to provide a genuine alternative.Stereotomy said:
Do you think that somebody who aimed to predict elections could do a good job by getting a single person from each region with similar credentials and asking them what they think will happen?Big_G_NorthWales said:
My knowledge and connection with Scotland goes back 68 years, having lived there, been married there, have family across Scotland, have voted there, and regular go back to the north of Scotland.
The SNP have replaced labour as the party of the left but also are pro business and continue to occupy the space that labour would have previously dominated. There is no evidence labour are making inroads into the SNP
Personally I'd be extremely skeptical.
Of course it could change but it is not happening at present and in any GE soon I would expect both conservative and labour to lose seats to the SNP
It is Harare, not Salisbury.
It is Aberconwy, not Aberconway.
It is Llanelly and Mynydd Mawr Railway Company, as that became defunct before the anglicised name Llanelly was changed to Llanelli (by referendum!)0 -
If they had been thought through, the GFA would surely have created an all-island customs territory at the time, which would have made it clear Brexit would not take Northern Ireland out of the customs union.Charles said:
Why would you include a get out mechanism in the GFA? It was supposed to settle things permanently. But no one thought through the black swan scenarios properlyNemtynakht said:
As a remain voter who now supports Leave this is a good option. It should never have been sequenced in that way in any case. The most disturbing thing for me that has come out over the last few days is that by signing the Good Friday agreement the government has committed to free movement across a border, without reference to possible membership of the EU. I assume that there has always been a get out mechanism like A50Charles said:
It would effectively mean the EU acknowledging that the sequencing idea was a stupid one. But we shouldn’t make an issue of that because this is quite a good solution to where we are todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I heard dafter ideasAlastairMeeks said:This would be fun:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10913156858447667210 -
Why is an impartial referee giving media interviews?Scott_P said:
Should we expect to hear from football refs at half time too?0 -
I see the role more as an Umpire.Sandpit said:
Why is an impartial referee giving media interviews?Scott_P said:
Should we expect to hear from football refs at half time too?
Impartiality is a moveable point depending on your starting point.
And because he likes self publicity.
I would like to hear more from football refs, along the lines Rugby follows.0 -
Pyschologically, it would help the cause of our leaving if they were gone this spring. Because then, if trade negotiations get a bit sticky, we can roll out a picture of Farage and ask "Do you REALLY want him back?"Tissue_Price said:
The screenshot suggests appointing MEPs. Presumably the current lot.MarqueeMark said:
It does raise the issue of the EU elections, but we should just waive our right to participate.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.
"Look, we're leaving anyway - and the last thing you guys need is Farage with an extra couple of dozen loons sat behind him...."
They'd fold.....0 -
On the other hand, two more years of gravy would be an incentive for Farage to go along with this plan, which would help sell it as a sensible option (he'd surely get re-elected somewhere, though, so he'd probably be calling for elections).MarqueeMark said:
Pyschologically, it would help the cause of our leaving if they were gone this spring. Because then, if trade negotiations get a bit sticky, we can roll out a picture of Farage and ask "Do you REALLY want him back?"Tissue_Price said:
The screenshot suggests appointing MEPs. Presumably the current lot.MarqueeMark said:
It does raise the issue of the EU elections, but we should just waive our right to participate.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.
"Look, we're leaving anyway - and the last thing you guys need is Farage with an extra couple of dozen loons sat behind him...."
They'd fold.....0 -
Do you think they take him seriously?MarqueeMark said:
Pyschologically, it would help the cause of our leaving if they were gone this spring. Because then, if trade negotiations get a bit sticky, we can roll out a picture of Farage and ask "Do you REALLY want him back?"Tissue_Price said:
The screenshot suggests appointing MEPs. Presumably the current lot.MarqueeMark said:
It does raise the issue of the EU elections, but we should just waive our right to participate.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.
"Look, we're leaving anyway - and the last thing you guys need is Farage with an extra couple of dozen loons sat behind him...."
They'd fold.....0 -
They might, if he held more sway in the new Parliament of Extremists when it gets elected this year.philiph said:
Do you think they take him seriously?MarqueeMark said:
Pyschologically, it would help the cause of our leaving if they were gone this spring. Because then, if trade negotiations get a bit sticky, we can roll out a picture of Farage and ask "Do you REALLY want him back?"Tissue_Price said:
The screenshot suggests appointing MEPs. Presumably the current lot.MarqueeMark said:
It does raise the issue of the EU elections, but we should just waive our right to participate.Andrew said:2 year extension has a lot of logic to it - under the WA transition status we'd de facto be in the EU anyway. It also avoids the HoC roadblock, since May could request the extension unilaterally afaics.
ERG would go absolutely apeshit of course, but screw em.
"Look, we're leaving anyway - and the last thing you guys need is Farage with an extra couple of dozen loons sat behind him...."
They'd fold.....0 -
My comments re polling in Scotland are almost invariably in response to points made by others - BigG comes to mind. Your distaste for parrots appears to be pretty selective! You don't mind points being repeated as long as you happen to agree with them.Theuniondivvie said:
I suspect you underestimate my distaste for parrots.justin124 said:
I suspect you are simply ignoring facts which you find unpalatable.Theuniondivvie said:
I see you skimmed over my initial point about repetition. Oh well..justin124 said:
I think you protest too much. Are you seriously denying that Labour went from one seat to seven in 2017 and that this came as a surprise to SNP supporters at the time? Do you really attach no significance at all to the fact that polls in Scotland had Labour in the 13% - 17% range in early May 2017 yet Labour emerged on 8th June with more than 27%. The polls continue to pitch them in the range of 25% - 28% , and in the light of that it is hardly unduly ambitious to suggest that Labour might well poll 30% next time - particularly as Labour's internal problems are now matched by similar dissension within SNP ranks.Theuniondivvie said:
No, I wasn't one of those 'many'.justin124 said:
Perhaps you were one of the many on here back in May 2017 who were so dismissive of the suggestion that the SNP would fall below 50 seats. Even a few days before Polling Day nationalist supporters were still in denial.Theuniondivvie said:
PB's Old Faithful spouts his stuff, as predictable as UK weather-related gridlock.justin124 said:
Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:A rainbow alliance?
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179
It's not the point that you keep making, it's that you make the same one over & over & over again. Apart from the turgid & tedious repetition (30, 40 times?), it gives off more than a whiff of whistling in the dark
Why don't you get it out of your system and offer a piece to PB on why Labour under Corbyn with plummeting personal ratings & an ambiguous attitude to Brexit that's unpopular with LABOUR members, plus an invisible SLab leader, is going to make a comeback in anti Brexit Scotland. I'm sure it'd make fascinating reading.
Also a link to your opinions of SLab's chances at Holyrood in 2007 & 2011, & at the 2015GE would be good, just to prove you're not one of those types who predicted 4 out of the last 1 party surges.0 -
Actually mics on football refs would be a great idea, it would cut down the back-chat and swearing significantly.philiph said:
I see the role more as an Umpire.Sandpit said:
Why is an impartial referee giving media interviews?Scott_P said:
Should we expect to hear from football refs at half time too?
Impartiality is a moveable point depending on your starting point.
And because he likes self publicity.
I would like to hear more from football refs, along the lines Rugby follows.
In rugby and American football it helps the audience in the ground and on TV how the men in the middle are thinking, and what’s the rationale behind decisions in more technical sports.
John Bercow is still a self-aggrandising ar$e though.0 -
Sadly that’s undoubtedly true.Charles said:
I’ve never really understood the US speaker circuit for retired politicians, or what value people think they’re getting for their couple of hundred grand an hour?0 -
Plastic sack? Luxury! We made do with a bit of old cardboard box round my way.paulyork64 said:
we made do with a heavy duty plastic sack from the local farm with an old cushion inside. went faster than most sledges and didnt break your ankle if a runaway hit you.SandyRentool said:
You're forgetting that for some of us Middle Class is posh.Charles said:
Not very - toboggan as a noun is irredeemably middle class.SandyRentool said:How posh do you have to be to reach the interface point between 'sledge' and 'toboggan'?
Kate Silverton has just used the latter.
Posh people use a sledge to go tobogganing.
Or just use a tea tray (my Dad once used a tea tray to slide into Everest base camp in some style)
I used to use my sledge to go sledging.0
This discussion has been closed.