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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov leader ratings finds both TMay and Corbyn struggling with their voters from GE2017

Only minutes after I published the previous thread bemoaning the fact that we see very few leader ratings surveys in British polls up popped YouGov with its latest favorability numbers.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    edited January 2019
    First like... whichever party changes its leader before the next GE.

    (And I mean that. The voters are pretty disenchanted with the main party leaders and the stench of decay around Westminster. In such circumstances, they'll vote for someone with the appearance of being fresh. Blair had that. Cameron too. May, Corbyn and Cable... not so much.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    FPT, on the MP for Peterborough:

    The vox-pop I heard had people incensed she was still claiming her MPs salary whilst inside. One guy said he had an urgent matter to discuss with his MP - did he have to wait for visiting hours at the local nick?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    FPT:
    Sandpit said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Stereotomy said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    I can't see what you are misunderstanding here, but you are wrong. The probability of the second child's sex is 50/50 irrespective of the sex of the first. Furthermore, the chances of sequential dual coin tosses hh, ht, th, tt are 25% each. There is no outcome or group of outcomes for which the odds are 66%.

    But am I wrong?

    A random mother with 2 kids (which she is to me at first) could have issued in sequence BB BG GB GG. There is an equal 25% chance of each of these.

    I know that one is B, so I can rule out only GG.

    Leaving one of BB BG GB.

    2 of those involve a G and 1 does not.

    Ergo there is a 50/75 chance - 2/3 - that her other child is a G.

    No?
    There are two BBs. He might be either the first B or the second B.
    What?! If I flip a coin twice, what's the chance I get two heads?
    Exactly the same as the chance of getting two tails, or a head and tail or a tail then a head. Each coin toss is a 50/50 and has no influence on the previous toss, or the tosser, if you excuse the expression.
    Obligatory video of that fine tosser Derren Brown, flipping a coin heads ten times in a row.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=X1uJD1O3L08
    A brilliant episode. The look on the woman's face when he tells her how his betting system works is priceless.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    Fourth like Boris
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1090723363167838208
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,153
    A Breggsit opportunity ?

    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/01/race-monetize-world-record-instagram-egg/581686/
    In the weeks since the egg went viral, countless people have tried to get a piece of the action. Last week, Instagram star Supreme Patty was incorrectly named the owner of the account after a member of his crew drunkenly bragged to a TMZ reporter. And Ishan Goel, a marketer, also claimed to have partnered with the egg and played a role in its viral success. In fact, he never partnered or worked with the egg in any sort of official capacity, and the egg has since blocked him on Instagram. (The egg did not respond to multiple Instagram direct messages from The Atlantic.)...

    ....Goff told me she could even see someone leveraging the egg to announce a 2020 presidential run. “I think it would be such an interesting and wild approach, and [a] completely new approach to presidential announcements,” she said.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    "Theresa May has, of course, told her party that she will not be leader at the next general election so in some ways this means that her figures are a bit less relevant."

    I don't think any such assurance was given in the event of a snap election....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    MarqueeMark said:

    "Theresa May has, of course, told her party that she will not be leader at the next general election so in some ways this means that her figures are a bit less relevant."

    I don't think any such assurance was given in the event of a snap election....

    And there was that bit of the same speech when she said she herself quite fancied giving it another go..
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    El_Capitano said:

    First like... whichever party changes its leader before the next GE.

    (And I mean that. The voters are pretty disenchanted with the main party leaders and the stench of decay around Westminster. In such circumstances, they'll vote for someone with the appearance of being fresh. Blair had that. Cameron too. May, Corbyn and Cable... not so much.)

    From a tremendously low base, is there a genuine opportunity for the LDs to peel off the left of the Tories and the Right of Labour, given that the parliamentary parties have lurched off into the middle? Or are they just perceived as too invisible / too idiosyncratic / too left of centre / too not wearing a red rosette?

    Are we doomed to an appallingly low turnout with no one really benefiting?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    IanB2 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    "Theresa May has, of course, told her party that she will not be leader at the next general election so in some ways this means that her figures are a bit less relevant."

    I don't think any such assurance was given in the event of a snap election....

    And there was that bit of the same speech when she said she herself quite fancied giving it another go..
    Theresa - Step. Away. From. The. Electorate......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Despite the claims of one poster, my immediate takeaway is that with a non-Corbyn leader, the Conservative position would be weaker and the Labour one stronger. Take away two is that the typo at the top leaps out like a sore thumb.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1090974410138361856
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    It's interesting to compare the favourability ratings of the leaders with those of their parties, amongst the various groups. The figures for 2017 LibDem voters, for example, show what a drag Corbyn is on Labour's efforts to attract votes from the centre:

    Labour Party: Favourable 28%, Unfavourable 68%
    Corbyn: Favourable 14%, Unfavourable 84%

    In contrast, the same 2017 LibDem voters really don't like the Tories, but they nonetheless seem to prefer Theresa May to Corbyn:

    Conservative Party: Favourable 9%, Unfavourable 87%
    May: Favourable 18%, Unfavourable 78%

    (Admittedly, a small sample).
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Has anyone thought through the implications of the EU forcing us to stay in the EU when parliment has voted again and again to leave? And if we have a second referendum how this will be used by Leave?

    If anyone thinks a revoking is going to lead to all smiles and sweeping this business under the carpet like it never happened then they are going to be very dissapointed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's interesting to compare the favourability ratings of the leaders with those of their parties, amongst the various groups. The figures for 2017 LibDem voters, for example, show what a drag Corbyn is on Labour's efforts to attract votes from the centre:

    Labour Party: Favourable 28%, Unfavourable 68%
    Corbyn: Favourable 14%, Unfavourable 84%

    In contrast, the same 2017 LibDem voters really don't like the Tories, but they nonetheless seem to prefer Theresa May to Corbyn:

    Conservative Party: Favourable 9%, Unfavourable 87%
    May: Favourable 18%, Unfavourable 78%

    (Admittedly, a small sample).

    And of course that sample is of those who were left once Corbyn had already sucked up most of the potential LibDem Vote during the 2017 campaign. The constituency that matters is those voters who prior to the coalition would have backed the LibDems who Corbyn managed to pull across in 2017, in part because many of them thought he would oppose Brexit.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's interesting to compare the favourability ratings of the leaders with those of their parties, amongst the various groups. The figures for 2017 LibDem voters, for example, show what a drag Corbyn is on Labour's efforts to attract votes from the centre:

    Labour Party: Favourable 28%, Unfavourable 68%
    Corbyn: Favourable 14%, Unfavourable 84%

    In contrast, the same 2017 LibDem voters really don't like the Tories, but they nonetheless seem to prefer Theresa May to Corbyn:

    Conservative Party: Favourable 9%, Unfavourable 87%
    May: Favourable 18%, Unfavourable 78%

    (Admittedly, a small sample).

    It's a difficult question. Black Death or Ebola?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    edited January 2019
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Stereotomy said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    I can't see what you are misunderstanding here, but you are wrong. The probability of the second child's sex is 50/50 irrespective of the sex of the first. Furthermore, the chances of sequential dual coin tosses hh, ht, th, tt are 25% each. There is no outcome or group of outcomes for which the odds are 66%.

    But am I wrong?

    A random mother with 2 kids (which she is to me at first) could have issued in sequence BB BG GB GG. There is an equal 25% chance of each of these.

    I know that one is B, so I can rule out only GG.

    Leaving one of BB BG GB.

    2 of those involve a G and 1 does not.

    Ergo there is a 50/75 chance - 2/3 - that her other child is a G.

    No?
    There are two BBs. He might be either the first B or the second B.
    What?! If I flip a coin twice, what's the chance I get two heads?
    Exactly the same as the chance of getting two tails, or a head and tail or a tail then a head. Each coin toss is a 50/50 and has no influence on the previous toss, or the tosser, if you excuse the expression.
    Obligatory video of that fine tosser Derren Brown, flipping a coin heads ten times in a row.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=X1uJD1O3L08
    A brilliant episode. The look on the woman's face when he tells her how his betting system works is priceless.
    Yes, I’m not quite sure she quite comprehended the scale of what she was involved in. Like the vast majority of his audience, they don’t realise just how much effort Brown and his team go to, in making these shows.

    The ten heads film was the first time that particular feat had ever been recorded, although there’s a few copycat videos of it now on YouTube.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    If those are the only choices, we will revoke.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1090973433482170369
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,658
    Yet despite the leaders struggling with their own supporters, my takeaway from this is that they despise their main opponents even more...hence, with the Lib Dems invisible, UKIP in la la land, and the Greens pointless outside Brighton we are locked in stasis.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,350
    For what it's worth - the EMA after the latest Survation poll shows:

    Con 38.5% Lab 38.1%

    Con 297
    Lab 274
    LD 17
    UKIP 0
    PC 3
    Green 1
    SNP 40

    Toris 29 short of an overall majority. Lab minority government possible with SNP and LD support.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    On the little local difficulty with the Irish backstop, there is perhaps one route to a face-saving resolution, if there is the political will to find a compromise. The solution would be to leave the Withdrawal Agreement exactly as it is, in accordance with the EU's position, but to take advantage of the fact that the WA already has a get-out clause, if there is a "subsequent agreement that establishes alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the island of Ireland on a permanent footing". Therefore, it is possible to agree something else without re-opening the WA.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Stereotomy said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    I can't see what you are misunderstanding here, but you are wrong. The probability of the second child's sex is 50/50 irrespective of the sex of the first. Furthermore, the chances of sequential dual coin tosses hh, ht, th, tt are 25% each. There is no outcome or group of outcomes for which the odds are 66%.

    But am I wrong?

    A random mother with 2 kids (which she is to me at first) could have issued in sequence BB BG GB GG. There is an equal 25% chance of each of these.

    I know that one is B, so I can rule out only GG.

    Leaving one of BB BG GB.

    2 of those involve a G and 1 does not.

    Ergo there is a 50/75 chance - 2/3 - that her other child is a G.

    No?
    There are two BBs. He might be either the first B or the second B.
    What?! If I flip a coin twice, what's the chance I get two heads?
    Exactly the same as the chance of getting two tails, or a head and tail or a tail then a head. Each coin toss is a 50/50 and has no influence on the previous toss, or the tosser, if you excuse the expression.
    Obligatory video of that fine tosser Derren Brown, flipping a coin heads ten times in a row.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=X1uJD1O3L08
    A brilliant episode. The look on the woman's face when he tells her how his betting system works is priceless.
    Yes, I’m not quite sure she quite comprehended the scale of what she was involved in. Like the vast majority of his audience, they don’t realise just how much effort Brown and his team go to, in making these shows.

    The ten heads film was the first time that particular feat had ever been recorded, although there’s a few copycat videos of it now on YouTube.
    Three of my favourite Derren Brown shows are the ones where he (a) got a man to confess to a murder he hadn't committed, (b) persuaded someone to throw another person off the top of a tall building, and (c) made a group of people commit a bank robbery in the City. Another one was where he beat 12 chess players at the same time, including 6 of the best players in the country.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    IanB2 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's interesting to compare the favourability ratings of the leaders with those of their parties, amongst the various groups. The figures for 2017 LibDem voters, for example, show what a drag Corbyn is on Labour's efforts to attract votes from the centre:

    Labour Party: Favourable 28%, Unfavourable 68%
    Corbyn: Favourable 14%, Unfavourable 84%

    In contrast, the same 2017 LibDem voters really don't like the Tories, but they nonetheless seem to prefer Theresa May to Corbyn:

    Conservative Party: Favourable 9%, Unfavourable 87%
    May: Favourable 18%, Unfavourable 78%

    (Admittedly, a small sample).

    And of course that sample is of those who were left once Corbyn had already sucked up most of the potential LibDem Vote during the 2017 campaign. The constituency that matters is those voters who prior to the coalition would have backed the LibDems who Corbyn managed to pull across in 2017, in part because many of them thought he would oppose Brexit.
    Good point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    Which concessions in particular do you think we’ll get?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    she just needs to go and propose nothing then sit it out . The EU tactic is to keep the UK coming up with all the improvements while they say yes or no and do nothing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    edited January 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    Which concessions in particular do you think we’ll get?
    I think there’s something still to move on the backstop proposal, whether it’s a time limit, a notice period or an independent arbitration of good faith in the discussions.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Ratify the deal and then start talking about the future relationship. Alternatively revoke Article 50 and carry on talking via the normal channels.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    youre no fun

    what are you going to rant about when this is all over ? :-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's interesting to compare the favourability ratings of the leaders with those of their parties, amongst the various groups. The figures for 2017 LibDem voters, for example, show what a drag Corbyn is on Labour's efforts to attract votes from the centre:

    Labour Party: Favourable 28%, Unfavourable 68%
    Corbyn: Favourable 14%, Unfavourable 84%

    In contrast, the same 2017 LibDem voters really don't like the Tories, but they nonetheless seem to prefer Theresa May to Corbyn:

    Conservative Party: Favourable 9%, Unfavourable 87%
    May: Favourable 18%, Unfavourable 78%

    (Admittedly, a small sample).

    it's very unusual for the Labour Party to be rated no more favourably than the Conservatives.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1090973433482170369

    Well it was never a serious option for any of these countries; it was just a wet dream for EUphobes who think other people also see the world through their small minded prism.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    But sadly that deal is dead, Parliament having voted to reject it by an enormous margin, with remainers and leavers alike not wishing to back the PM.

    Parliament have asked the PM to go back and negotiate, but the EU have given her Arkell v Pressdram as a reply. So how do we get them to sit at the table?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Alanbrooke said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    she just needs to go and propose nothing then sit it out . The EU tactic is to keep the UK coming up with all the improvements while they say yes or no and do nothing.
    Er, no that is not what happened. They negotiated a deal in good faith. May and her advisors should have realised they were in no position to deliver. She should have taken soundings from across the house much earlier and found a compromise, but she didn't. The EU hasn't covered itself with glory, but we have made ourselves look like a bunch of petulant teenagers. The mother of parliaments? TMay, the brexiteers and Corbyn have made us an international laughing stock
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    But sadly that deal is dead, Parliament having voted to reject it by an enormous margin, with remainers and leavers alike not wishing to back the PM.

    Parliament have asked the PM to go back and negotiate, but the EU have given her Arkell v Pressdram as a reply. So how do we get them to sit at the table?
    I'm not aware that Arkell came back to the table, did he?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    Except it wasn't agreed, unless you missed that vote a few weeks ago? And who's big idea was it to insist Parliament had to vote on it?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    But sadly that deal is dead, Parliament having voted to reject it by an enormous margin, with remainers and leavers alike not wishing to back the PM.

    Parliament have asked the PM to go back and negotiate, but the EU have given her Arkell v Pressdram as a reply. So how do we get them to sit at the table?
    At the moment for a 'deal' either parliment has to break the EU, or the EU has to break Parliment. And neither will happen.

    So, it's no-deal or no-Brexit i think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1090973433482170369

    Well it was never a serious option for any of these countries; it was just a wet dream for EUphobes who think other people also see the world through their small minded prism.
    Exactly.

    They told us the EU would collapse and other countries would follow us out. Truth: Brexit has strengthened the EU and killed off leaver sentiment in the other member states.

    They told us leaving the EU would bring great benefits. Truth: even leavers now concede that we now need to go through a period of potentially severe pain

    They told us that doing a deal with the EU and then with the rest of the world would be the easiest thing. Truth: two and a half years of effort have proved futile and have simply led us to the edge of a precipice.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    Except it wasn't agreed, unless you missed that vote a few weeks ago? And who's big idea was it to insist Parliament had to vote on it?
    Parliament would have to ratify it no matter what. The meaningful vote just adds an additional step before May signs it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    But sadly that deal is dead, Parliament having voted to reject it by an enormous margin, with remainers and leavers alike not wishing to back the PM.

    Parliament have asked the PM to go back and negotiate, but the EU have given her Arkell v Pressdram as a reply. So how do we get them to sit at the table?
    Why would you want them to come back to the table if you’re ok with no deal? Let’s just get on with it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    she just needs to go and propose nothing then sit it out . The EU tactic is to keep the UK coming up with all the improvements while they say yes or no and do nothing.
    Er, no that is not what happened. They negotiated a deal in good faith. May and her advisors should have realised they were in no position to deliver. She should have taken soundings from across the house much earlier and found a compromise, but she didn't. The EU hasn't covered itself with glory, but we have made ourselves look like a bunch of petulant teenagers. The mother of parliaments? TMay, the brexiteers and Corbyn have made us an international laughing stock
    The continent has been laughing at the english for years, this is hardly new. But if you want to see an agreement passed ( like myself ) then we start from where we are and the chances of getting this past Parliament are uncertain so we will be going with this to the wire irrespective. And since the other side habitually wont shift until the last minute we might as well bring a deck of cards to pass the time,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    Except it wasn't agreed, unless you missed that vote a few weeks ago? And who's big idea was it to insist Parliament had to vote on it?
    Parliament would have to ratify it no matter what. The meaningful vote just adds an additional step before May signs it.
    They would have had a simple yes/no, not the ability to amend to get the PM to go back and ask for more.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Very Arcadius and Honorius.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    edited January 2019
    Alanbrooke said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    she just needs to go and propose nothing then sit it out . The EU tactic is to keep the UK coming up with all the improvements while they say yes or no and do nothing.
    Er, no that is not what happened. They negotiated a deal in good faith. May and her advisors should have realised they were in no position to deliver. She should have taken soundings from across the house much earlier and found a compromise, but she didn't. The EU hasn't covered itself with glory, but we have made ourselves look like a bunch of petulant teenagers. The mother of parliaments? TMay, the brexiteers and Corbyn have made us an international laughing stock
    The continent has been laughing at the english for years, this is hardly new. But if you want to see an agreement passed ( like myself ) then we start from where we are and the chances of getting this past Parliament are uncertain so we will be going with this to the wire irrespective. And since the other side habitually wont shift until the last minute we might as well bring a deck of cards to pass the time,
    Box sets for Westminster......

    EDIT: speaking of which, caught up with True Detective 3 yet?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kinabalu said:

    Stereotomy said:

    This is exactly the same situation. To work out the probabilities I need to know what your process was for showing me that coin. Do you have a preference for showing me tails? Or heads? Or did you pick the coin to show me in a way that's independent of what sides were showing?

    OK, good point - let's take my process out of it.

    Scenario as before but YOU choose which hand I lift. You go for my left hand and it is tails. And we will say you pick that one because you have left wing political views.

    Now in that case, do you want to know which coin I flipped first before working out the chance of the coin under my right hand also being tails?
    No.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    IanB2 said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1090973433482170369

    Well it was never a serious option for any of these countries; it was just a wet dream for EUphobes who think other people also see the world through their small minded prism.
    Exactly.

    They told us the EU would collapse and other countries would follow us out. Truth: Brexit has strengthened the EU and killed off leaver sentiment in the other member states.

    They told us leaving the EU would bring great benefits. Truth: even leavers now concede that we now need to go through a period of potentially severe pain

    They told us that doing a deal with the EU and then with the rest of the world would be the easiest thing. Truth: two and a half years of effort have proved futile and have simply led us to the edge of a precipice.
    seems youve been listening to the wrong they
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/supermathskid/status/1090984017284026368
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    edited January 2019
    MarqueeMark said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    she just needs to go and propose nothing then sit it out . The EU tactic is to keep the UK coming up with all the improvements while they say yes or no and do nothing.
    Er, no that is not what happened. They negotiated a deal in good faith. May and her advisors should have realised they were in no position to deliver. She should have taken soundings from across the house much earlier and found a compromise, but she didn't. The EU hasn't covered itself with glory, but we have made ourselves look like a bunch of petulant teenagers. The mother of parliaments? TMay, the brexiteers and Corbyn have made us an international laughing stock
    The continent has been laughing at the english for years, this is hardly new. But if you want to see an agreement passed ( like myself ) then we start from where we are and the chances of getting this past Parliament are uncertain so we will be going with this to the wire irrespective. And since the other side habitually wont shift until the last minute we might as well bring a deck of cards to pass the time,
    Box sets for Westminster......

    EDIT: speaking of which, caught up with True Detective 3 yet?
    this year Ive been on

    Vietnam war
    Luther 5
    Designated Survivor ( good but needs editing )
    Spirals

    and am looking forward to GoT in April

    no doubt some dickhead will now say we cant have it because of Brexit

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    edited January 2019
    Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it proves that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?

    How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Slackbladder said:

    Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it prove that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?

    How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?

    Ive bought a pitchfork
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Slackbladder said:

    Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it prove that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?

    How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?

    "Going forward", it looks less and less important. I get that this nebulous concept of sovereignty means a lot to 70-year olds and their dwindling band of spiritual successors in the Young Conservatives, but your average millennial doesn't give a flying one when they can't get on the housing ladder or have any job security.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Slackbladder said:

    Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it proves that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?

    How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?

    I didn’t think even the most extreme Leavers had suggested that the expected outcome of Brexit was to give the U.K. parliament sovereignty over the whole European Union.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Polruan said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it proves that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?

    How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?

    I didn’t think even the most extreme Leavers had suggested that the expected outcome of Brexit was to give the U.K. parliament sovereignty over the whole European Union.
    brexit is a process
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Schools may need to be flexible about what's in lunches for pupils in no-deal Brexit, DfE says

    Schools may need to be “flexible” to provide school lunches in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Department for Education has told schools and colleges in England in its EU exit advice note out today. It says:

    The government, including the Department for Education, will continue to work with food suppliers to prepare for a no deal departure from the EU. Schools have significant flexibilities within the school food standards. Local authorities and schools must exercise their power to provide meals to all registered pupils who request one.

    The DfE’s advice means schools could ignore guidelines on nutrition and content if there are shortages, rewinding Jamie Oliver’s good work and suggesting it could be back to processed potato waffles and chicken nuggets for British school children.

    Schools are also told that hiring teachers from abroad will get more difficult because their qualifications may not be automatically recognised.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/31/brexit-latest-news-developments-uk-may-have-to-delay-leaving-eu-jeremy-hunt-admits-politics-live
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Swedish Democrats abandon idea of Swexit referendum.

    https://twitter.com/oleryborg/status/1090986292018597889?s=21
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Alanbrooke said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    youre no fun

    what are you going to rant about when this is all over ? :-)
    Me? Rant?

    I think you have me confused with a Leaver.... ;)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    But sadly that deal is dead, Parliament having voted to reject it by an enormous margin, with remainers and leavers alike not wishing to back the PM.

    Parliament have asked the PM to go back and negotiate, but the EU have given her Arkell v Pressdram as a reply. So how do we get them to sit at the table?
    Well - if you think that we are stuck with a dead deal then it is either No Deal or No Brexit.

    The govt needs to choose and stop fannying about
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Barnesian said:

    For what it's worth - the EMA after the latest Survation poll shows:

    Con 38.5% Lab 38.1%

    Con 297
    Lab 274
    LD 17
    UKIP 0
    PC 3
    Green 1
    SNP 40

    Toris 29 short of an overall majority. Lab minority government possible with SNP and LD support.

    Not a terrible outcome for the next election by any means. Corbyn in a very weak position to push through his insanity, with the Tories needing only a small boost to return to power next time.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    Except it wasn't agreed, unless you missed that vote a few weeks ago? And who's big idea was it to insist Parliament had to vote on it?
    It was agreed by our negotiators acting under instructions from our Executive.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good news for fans of Magnum ice-cream bars. They're being stockpiled.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47071874
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    El_Capitano said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it prove that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?

    How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?

    "Going forward", it looks less and less important. I get that this nebulous concept of sovereignty means a lot to 70-year olds and their dwindling band of spiritual successors in the Young Conservatives, but your average millennial doesn't give a flying one when they can't get on the housing ladder or have any job security.
    Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Pulpstar, good point.

    Also worth noting the significant tension between what parties/MPS want and what the public might want. Entirely possible the Commons might agree something and the electorate think it's rubbish.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Pulpstar said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it prove that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?

    How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?

    "Going forward", it looks less and less important. I get that this nebulous concept of sovereignty means a lot to 70-year olds and their dwindling band of spiritual successors in the Young Conservatives, but your average millennial doesn't give a flying one when they can't get on the housing ladder or have any job security.
    Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?
    It’s only really notable when a government can’t get parliament to support its actions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    But sadly that deal is dead, Parliament having voted to reject it by an enormous margin, with remainers and leavers alike not wishing to back the PM.

    Parliament have asked the PM to go back and negotiate, but the EU have given her Arkell v Pressdram as a reply. So how do we get them to sit at the table?
    Well - if you think that we are stuck with a dead deal then it is either No Deal or No Brexit.

    The govt needs to choose and stop fannying about
    Which was my original point. The only way we get them to negotiate from here is to make it clear that if they don’t it’s no deal (their worst possible outcome) and we need to make it clear we are actually preparing for it.

    Hopefully the end result is an improved deal acceptable to Parliament, but if not then we have a £39bn budget to minimise the short term effects of no deal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    Beverley_C said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    Except it wasn't agreed, unless you missed that vote a few weeks ago? And who's big idea was it to insist Parliament had to vote on it?
    It was agreed by our negotiators acting under instructions from our Executive.
    Who had no authority to agree anything until it had been agreed by parliament.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Pulpstar said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Does anyone not see that the EU doesn't budge, and the 'will' of Parliment is broken, then it prove that Parliment is indeed no longer the soveriegn power of the country?

    How do you think thats going to look going forward, and the fallout from that?

    "Going forward", it looks less and less important. I get that this nebulous concept of sovereignty means a lot to 70-year olds and their dwindling band of spiritual successors in the Young Conservatives, but your average millennial doesn't give a flying one when they can't get on the housing ladder or have any job security.
    Hmm, plenty on social media whenever the Gov't is defeated about "parliamentary sovereignty" re Brexit; less so when the Gov't is winning. Any ideas on that ?
    I think it's usually in the context of throwing a common Leave argument back at Leavers, isn't it? Rather than actually espousing any particular belief in sovereignty per se.

    Generally the malaise is a lack of "agency" (horrible sociological word, but there we go). People of all ages believe they don't have control over their own lives. The difference is that older people are more likely to blame this on the EU, and younger people on capitalism or some ill-formed concept of it.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    blueblue said:

    Barnesian said:

    For what it's worth - the EMA after the latest Survation poll shows:

    Con 38.5% Lab 38.1%

    Con 297
    Lab 274
    LD 17
    UKIP 0
    PC 3
    Green 1
    SNP 40

    Toris 29 short of an overall majority. Lab minority government possible with SNP and LD support.

    Not a terrible outcome for the next election by any means. Corbyn in a very weak position to push through his insanity, with the Tories needing only a small boost to return to power next time.
    Whatever your colors, you can infer nothing from current VI polls. There will be a huge post-Brexit realignment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    But sadly that deal is dead, Parliament having voted to reject it by an enormous margin, with remainers and leavers alike not wishing to back the PM.

    Parliament have asked the PM to go back and negotiate, but the EU have given her Arkell v Pressdram as a reply. So how do we get them to sit at the table?
    Well - if you think that we are stuck with a dead deal then it is either No Deal or No Brexit.

    The govt needs to choose and stop fannying about
    Which was my original point. The only way we get them to negotiate from here is to make it clear that if they don’t it’s no deal (their worst possible outcome) and we need to make it clear we are actually preparing for it.

    Hopefully the end result is an improved deal acceptable to Parliament, but if not then we have a £39bn budget to minimise the short term effects of no deal.
    It’d be a bit less than half that, the rest being legal obligations such as pensions etc.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,545
    I see England's openers doing the business as usual....
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Beverley_C said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    Except it wasn't agreed, unless you missed that vote a few weeks ago? And who's big idea was it to insist Parliament had to vote on it?
    It was agreed by our negotiators acting under instructions from our Executive.
    in the knowledge it would have to be ratified by the legislature.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    Except it wasn't agreed, unless you missed that vote a few weeks ago? And who's big idea was it to insist Parliament had to vote on it?
    It was agreed by our negotiators acting under instructions from our Executive.
    Who had no authority to agree anything until it had been agreed by parliament.
    Everything has been done in accordance with UK procedure and law.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Well - if you think that we are stuck with a dead deal then it is either No Deal or No Brexit.

    The govt needs to choose and stop fannying about

    Which was my original point. The only way we get them to negotiate from here is to make it clear that if they don’t it’s no deal (their worst possible outcome) and we need to make it clear we are actually preparing for it.

    Hopefully the end result is an improved deal acceptable to Parliament, but if not then we have a £39bn budget to minimise the short term effects of no deal.
    Err... no!

    We are past that. There is no negotiating. If Maybot's Deal is truly dead then there is no more negotiating.

    It is No Deal or Revoke.

    That is it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,153
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see England's openers doing the business as usual....

    Unfair - we're failing with a new opening partnership.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    Beverley_C said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    Except it wasn't agreed, unless you missed that vote a few weeks ago? And who's big idea was it to insist Parliament had to vote on it?
    It was agreed by our negotiators acting under instructions from our Executive.
    Who had no authority to agree anything until it had been agreed by parliament.
    Everything has been done in accordance with UK procedure and law.
    Yes, hence the deal has not yet been agreed since Parliament rejected it.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Peterborough local paper's editor wonders how an MP can deal with constituents from prison. Unclear how long appeal process would take, before triggering recall petition.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/opinion/editor-s-comment-a-travesty-fiona-onasanya-remains-peterborough-mp-behind-bars-1-8792456
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Well - if you think that we are stuck with a dead deal then it is either No Deal or No Brexit.

    The govt needs to choose and stop fannying about

    Which was my original point. The only way we get them to negotiate from here is to make it clear that if they don’t it’s no deal (their worst possible outcome) and we need to make it clear we are actually preparing for it.

    Hopefully the end result is an improved deal acceptable to Parliament, but if not then we have a £39bn budget to minimise the short term effects of no deal.
    Err... no!

    We are past that. There is no negotiating. If Maybot's Deal is truly dead then there is no more negotiating.

    It is No Deal or Revoke.

    That is it.
    It’s not dead yet....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,545
    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see England's openers doing the business as usual....

    Unfair - we're failing with a new opening partnership.
    Oh well here Root..oh no he's gone too...good job England bat deep....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see England's openers doing the business as usual....

    and a brief innings from The Captain.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    dr_spyn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see England's openers doing the business as usual....

    and a brief innings from The Captain.
    Oh I don't know, they're well on their way to beating their previous first innings total.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,413
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On the little local difficulty with the Irish backstop, there is perhaps one route to a face-saving resolution, if there is the political will to find a compromise. The solution would be to leave the Withdrawal Agreement exactly as it is, in accordance with the EU's position, but to take advantage of the fact that the WA already has a get-out clause, if there is a "subsequent agreement that establishes alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the island of Ireland on a permanent footing". Therefore, it is possible to agree something else without re-opening the WA.

    Agreed

    And that something could be a referendum in Northern Ireland, or the opinion of an independent body that over of the parties had not acted in good faith.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    edited January 2019
    dr_spyn said:

    Peterborough local paper's editor wonders how an MP can deal with constituents from prison. Unclear how long appeal process would take, before triggering recall petition.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/opinion/editor-s-comment-a-travesty-fiona-onasanya-remains-peterborough-mp-behind-bars-1-8792456

    She is probably hoping to get out before the appeal is heard, so she can be back “representing her constituents” before the petition goes around. Brass neck doesn’t quite cover it.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Well - if you think that we are stuck with a dead deal then it is either No Deal or No Brexit.

    The govt needs to choose and stop fannying about

    Which was my original point. The only way we get them to negotiate from here is to make it clear that if they don’t it’s no deal (their worst possible outcome) and we need to make it clear we are actually preparing for it.

    Hopefully the end result is an improved deal acceptable to Parliament, but if not then we have a £39bn budget to minimise the short term effects of no deal.
    Err... no!

    We are past that. There is no negotiating. If Maybot's Deal is truly dead then there is no more negotiating.

    It is No Deal or Revoke.

    That is it.
    It’s not dead yet....
    Yes it is. You said yourself that it has been rejected. The EU has made it clear that there is no further negotiation. This deal is either dead or parliament must accept it.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    edited January 2019
    Beverley_C said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Well - if you think that we are stuck with a dead deal then it is either No Deal or No Brexit.

    The govt needs to choose and stop fannying about

    Which was my original point. The only way we get them to negotiate from here is to make it clear that if they don’t it’s no deal (their worst possible outcome) and we need to make it clear we are actually preparing for it.

    Hopefully the end result is an improved deal acceptable to Parliament, but if not then we have a £39bn budget to minimise the short term effects of no deal.
    Err... no!

    We are past that. There is no negotiating. If Maybot's Deal is truly dead then there is no more negotiating.

    It is No Deal or Revoke.

    That is it.
    It’s not dead yet....
    Yes it is. You said yourself that it has been rejected. The EU has made it clear that there is no further negotiation. This deal is either dead or parliament must accept it.

    Your last sentence sums it up quite nicely, and demonstrates that it isn’t dead yet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,910
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see England's openers doing the business as usual....

    Unfair - we're failing with a new opening partnership.
    Oh well here Root..oh no he's gone too...good job England bat deep....
    Not this again!

    England Cricket rivalling Parliament in the ‘can’t we just kick them all out and have another lot do the job?’ stakes.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    kinabalu said:

    david_herdson said:

    However, his not disciplining the front benchers who rebelled tends in that direction.

    True.

    Actually, if you do pop back here at some point, I would be interested in your view on this -

    If TM decides she wants to go for a snap election - IF she decides that - do you think that her party would let her do it?
    Depends on the circumstances. If it was to go over their heads and impose a policy that many MPs opposed, then no. If it were because it genuinely seemed the only way out of a deadlock which needed urgently breaking, then probably. That said, I think most MPs, if a public Brexit vote of some sort were absolutely necessary, should favour a referendum rather than an election, both because it doesn't put their jobs (imminently) at risk, and because it keeps the focus on the question in hand, rather than muddying the waters with social care policy and the like.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:


    Yes it is. You said yourself that it has been rejected. The EU has made it clear that there is no further negotiation. This deal is either dead or parliament must accept it.

    Your last sentence sums it up quite nicely, and demonstrates that it isn’t dead yet.

    And you said Parliament rejected it.

    Look, in baby talk, here are the options

    No Deal
    Maybot's Deal (Rejected by massive margin)
    Remain.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    edited January 2019
    Beverley_C said:



    And you said Parliament rejected it.

    Look, in baby talk, here are the options

    No Deal
    Maybot's Deal (Rejected by massive margin)
    Remain.

    How patronising. It was rejected when they thought they could get more out of the EU. Once that door closes.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,153
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see England's openers doing the business as usual....

    Unfair - we're failing with a new opening partnership.
    Oh well here Root..oh no he's gone too...good job England bat deep....
    Bairstow not going to die wondering.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    dr_spyn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see England's openers doing the business as usual....

    and a brief innings from The Captain.
    Oh I don't know, they're well on their way to beating their previous first innings total.
    Sounds as if Root had a very difficult delivery to deal with, comments on inconsistent bounce on BBC.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,545
    dr_spyn said:

    Peterborough local paper's editor wonders how an MP can deal with constituents from prison. Unclear how long appeal process would take, before triggering recall petition.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/opinion/editor-s-comment-a-travesty-fiona-onasanya-remains-peterborough-mp-behind-bars-1-8792456

    Perhaps her mystery Russian friend can step in and help out?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    RobD said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1090970310663389185

    No Deal it is then.....
    Yup. The only chance we now have of getting concessions from the EU is to show them that it’s full steam ahead with the no-deal preparations, and that we’re using the £39bn to do it.
    You are truly an idiot. And an idiot who is thousands of miles away and safely insulated from the disaster we are about to inflict upon ourselves at that.
    Rather than again play the man, what would be your suggestion as to how to get the EU around the table and talking?
    Well, we could start by ratifying the deal that we agreed with them and which, by their own admission, we shaped it into what we wanted according to Maybot's red lines.
    Except it wasn't agreed, unless you missed that vote a few weeks ago? And who's big idea was it to insist Parliament had to vote on it?
    It was agreed by our negotiators acting under instructions from our Executive.
    Who had no authority to agree anything until it had been agreed by parliament.
    A more nuanced perspective is that it was unwise of the Negotiators to agree something that was unlikely to be confirmed by Parliament. The size of the majority against the deal will have suggested to the EU that the Executive and their Negotiators were not acting in good faith, but merely using the negotiating process as a political ploy.

    You can understand why they might be peed off with us.

    Anyway, on the bright side, England are approaching 50 with only 3 wickets down. Tally-ho!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Peterborough local paper's editor wonders how an MP can deal with constituents from prison. Unclear how long appeal process would take, before triggering recall petition.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/opinion/editor-s-comment-a-travesty-fiona-onasanya-remains-peterborough-mp-behind-bars-1-8792456

    She is probably hoping to get out before the appeal is heard, so she can be back “representing her constituents” before the petition goes around. Brass neck doesn’t quite cover it.
    Even after the petition, there then has to be the vote on recall itself, and then the by-election after it. I could easily see the other side of summer being the earliest before Peterborough could get a new MP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,545
    dr_spyn said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    dr_spyn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I see England's openers doing the business as usual....

    and a brief innings from The Captain.
    Oh I don't know, they're well on their way to beating their previous first innings total.
    Sounds as if Root had a very difficult delivery to deal with, comments on inconsistent bounce on BBC.
    It was, and it was an incredible "rebound" catch off a the first attempted catch flying up in the air.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    dr_spyn said:

    Sounds as if Root had a very difficult delivery to deal with

    It was tougher than that.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Barnesian said:

    For what it's worth - the EMA after the latest Survation poll shows:

    Con 38.5% Lab 38.1%

    Con 297
    Lab 274
    LD 17
    UKIP 0
    PC 3
    Green 1
    SNP 40

    Toris 29 short of an overall majority. Lab minority government possible with SNP and LD support.

    I feel sure I speak for my fellow Lib Dems when I say - fat chance.
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