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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With 60 days to go the uncertainty is greater than ever
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A short extension to allow for the passing of legislation might be approved, but only if it's clear that the deal has passed and there's a clear Parliamentary majority for everything that needs to happen - which I don't think there is.
A longer extension, past the EU elections, gives more problems from their side, so they would need to see a good reason for it other than just more talking. Remember that the clock is a feature as far as the EU is concerned, it's not in their interest to keep it running. They want to see the issue forced quickly so that we either leave with the deal or don't leave, to allow them to get on with other important things.
Only the serious possibility of no deal is going to focus their minds. Also remember that between April 23rd and July 2nd the EU Parliament is not sitting, and they need to approve the same deal after it's been approved by the EU negotiators and the UK Parliament.
1) The EU never saw a can it didn't kick.
2) "No extension for faffing" makes sense as a stance for as long as it's focussing minds, but everybody would prefer further faffing to a car crash.
3) It's true that the need for unanimity adds a non-trivial risk of somebody sabotaging things, but a car crash is bad for everyone, including businesses and citizens in every member state, and the Council of Ministers has strong peer pressure in crisis situations in a way that wouldn't apply if there were parliaments involved.
4) No non-bonkers person wants Brexit to happen, and every day it doesn't happen increases the chances that it won't happen.
Luke Johnson is a very smart guy and it’s a shock to see he seems to have been so thoroughly hoodwinked.
We must only hope that the Japanese aren't being offered the benefit of your clinical insights.....
May has a deal nobody likes.
Corbyn is still committed to a deal that’s not on offer.
Nobody wants a No Deal, but nobody has a deal that can command a majority in Parliament.
May has successful wasted 6 weeks.
There are only 8 weeks to go.
The question is how it managed to go on for so long without anyone noticing? As you say, Johnson's a smart guy and you think he'd have been asking the right questions.
All rather weird, I guess there will be books written about it for the next generation of business and accounting students to study, and probably a few court cases for the law students to study too!
Either way the cost to the country has been incalculable.
- the Cabinet Remainers STILL haven't resigned - they REALLY like their Ministerial perks
- the Irish are finally having some domestic discussions about the reality of Hard Borders - and are shit-scared about it (from "bonkers" Prime Minister down)
- ERG members are admitting that a form of May's Deal is the only Brexit they are going to get (Nadine Dories right acoss, Rees-Mogg moved partly across publically - and many others will have privately got to that point)
- we are very close to seeing that May's Deal with the backstop removed would give us a deal that would get through the House --> Hard Brexit belong EU
- a number of EU countries are at least wondering aloud if their negotiators position is really in their collective interest
- the Remainers have now played their hand that Remaining is all they are interested in - and centuries of Parliamentary convention and independence of the Speaker's Chair are worth throwing out to achive that
The auditors seem to have messed up in a big way if the cash balances were wrong. That’s a basic reconciliation
The government had no plan and no agreement. They spread a number of falsehoods to cover this up.
You think he's alone?
https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1089739011994865664?s=21
Fish in a barrel job this morning!
The “centuries of Parliamentary convention” is really guff upon guff.
Nothing has changed.
You cite Hodges?
HODGES?
Give over. He’s writing tripe for an audience that craves tripe.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cliff-taylor-ireland-could-face-choice-of-backstop-concessions-or-no-deal-brexit-1.3770820?mode=amp
It's a weird kind of negotiating strength: Normally you gain by making your words credible, but since she's trying to threaten both sides simultaneously it might be just what she needs...
I think it was your good self who said on here that audit is the next big scandal coming down the line, and this is undoubtedly a future textbook example of what happens when those who you are paying to be critical and cynical don't fulfill that role effectively - but still feel able to charge top rates for their services. Dare I suggest that the same might also be said of the non-executive directors, whom the shareholders might expect to be asking the right questions rather than simply assuming things are great?
It is therefore disingenuous for anyone to blame May for the mess we are in. She actually has a workable plan and the Ultras aside, remains the only person who has (the Cooper plan being so much hot air). It is Parliament that is causing this logjam, and it is Parliament that needs to get itself sorted.
Hopefully next year there will be an election and a clearout, as they're demonstrating all the skill and grace and integrity of a Corbyn at the moment, pursuing impossible dreams and lying about them. But for the moment, we need to concentrate on surviving the next two months and three days.
But certainly nobody can credibly say No Deal is not an option if they have failed to vote for a course of action that would avoid it.
...but in future I won't bother offering up evidence that contradicts your cast-iron certainties.
b) However if we do, they must, and will do their duty by the remaining members.
It is after all, we, the British, who have upset the applecart and who don't seem to know how or even why.
But....meh...margin of error.......
next ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47023665
I don't think this will work. Bluntly, £5000 wouldn't make up the salary gap they're talking about, and as a one off in most parts of the country it wouldn't even help towards buying a house.
Until workload is brought under control pay is so much irrelevance. This could actually be done very easily. A cheap start could be made by abolishing OFSTED, OFQUAL and whatever the DfE is called this week, all of which perform their tasks extraordinarily badly and do nothing except annoy actual experts by pontificating loudly about subjects they understand about as well as Corbyn does the Brexit negotiations.
However, the next stage is cutting class sizes and that's so costly no government will ever do it.
Even if you don't like what's on offer, she's got a deal. Nobody else has a clue.
Speaking of which - time for work. Have a good morning.
No PM could allow no deal, in any case. It would make Suez look like a minor misjudgement.
Even less so, had anyone is senior management bothered to visit a couple of their outlets. I had the misfortune to go into their Stratford on Avon unit a couple of years back. Almost deserted - in one of the busiest tourist towns in England - and the food offering was worse that the average motorway service station.
And it was obvious that very, very little money had been spent on fitting it out.
Had I been a shareholder, I would have sold immediately.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/427190-howard-schultz-says-hes-seriously-considering-2020-bid-as-centrist
Boards work back from EBITDA, profit and revenue, don’t they? If they’re all looking good they are unlikely to ask too many questions.
Only about three weeks until testing commences. Huzzah!
The Restaurant manager would look at figures like REVPASH (revenue per available seat hour), and the regional manager would look at this as well as an EBITDA figure for the site. His boss would look at EBITDA plus the missing ITDA, plus profits for head office activities like HR, marketing and IT - and so on up the chain. Even the ops director would want to know the top performing sites on the REVPASH figures, as they'd be used for things like staff bonus schemes. Such basic information comes straight from the point of sale systems, rather than on spreadsheets.
Someone somewhere must have realised that the figures their boss had were very different to the figures coming up the chain, or else there was a whole level of higher-ups keeping two sets of books.
The difference being that NEDs don't die if they screw up. In fact, many of them just shrug it off and move on to the next well paid NED somewhere else.
It was always full of film people and it was much the best and most famous coffee bar in town. It was the place for early morning meetings and a place to read your paper, It sold pastries at the front of the shop but the tables were coffee and croissants only. It later opened an upstairs doing English breakfasts but it was the dark wood lined interior with a wall sized Lautrec that made it the first port of call even for out of towners.
I can only imagine one of my fellow early morning croissant eaters saw the potential in the brand and decided to run with it. If it's true that he's a Brexiteer it's ironic. It was the most cosmopolitan cafe in the most cosmopolitan district in London. Perhaps going bust is Soho's revenge?
A reflection of the Parliamentary arithmetic given if Parliament does not vote for the Deal a second time it will almost certainly vote for a permanent Customs Union instead to avoid No Deal and given Juncker's statement over the weekend the EU could renegotiate with a permanent Customs Union that would then become the new Deal by default
Sounds bonkers. Doesn't mean it's not true, of course.
As much as i think the Cooper plan is a pretty dishonest attempt to remain without saying that's the plan, it might be best for it to pass rather than continue chasing unicorns as official policy 're the backstop. That nice lady, Theresa May, she's told us for 4 months the deal won't change, we should believe her on that.
We're very screwed.
I hope this is a wake up call to more restaurant chains to automate more of their reporting systems, not that I'm biased as a consultant working with such systems of course!
He's 88 now, and happily enjoying retirement in Brazil with a wife half his age. He always worked as a one-man-band, so what would be his succession plan for the sport?
Liberty, having paid $4bn to Bernie, would presumably want $5bn or $6bn to sell up now - where would the extra cash come from?
The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up to seven years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to two leading European Union law specialists.
The ensuing chaos could double food prices and plunge Britain into a recession that could last up to 30 years, claim the lawyers who acted for Gina Miller in the historic case that forced the government to seek parliament’s approval to leave the EU.
It has been claimed that the UK could simply move to WTO terms if there is no deal with the EU. But Anneli Howard, a specialist in EU and competition law at Monckton Chambers and a member of the bar’s Brexit working group, believes this isn’t true.
“No deal means leaving with nothing,” she said. “The anticipated recession will be worse than the 1930s, let alone 2008. It is impossible to say how long it would go on for. Some economists say 10 years, others say the effects could be felt for 20 or even 30 years: even ardent Brexiters agree it could be decades.”
The government’s own statistics have estimated that under the worst case no-deal scenario, GDP would be 10.7% lower than if the UK stays in the EU, in 15 years.
There are two apparently insurmountable hurdles to the UK trading on current WTO tariffs in the event of Britain crashing out in March, said Howard.
Firstly, the UK must produce its own schedule covering both services and each of the 5,000-plus product lines covered in the WTO agreement and get it agreed by all the 163 WTO states in the 32 remaining parliamentary sitting days until 29 March 2019. A number of states have already raised objections to the UK’s draft schedule:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/27/uk-cannot-simply-trade-on-wto-terms-after-no-deal-brexit-say-experts
The only change in recent years is that 'old boys' has become 'old boys and girls' as companies scramble to avoid appearing to be totally male dominated.
Why insist on backbench MPs having a say? It's nowt to do with them. It's up to the powers-that-be (the executive if you like) to fulfil their promise. Why bring in MPs who dislike the result to arrange it? They're the pissheads at the back in a pub discussion who just like attention.
You may not like it, but that's puzzling a lot of people, me included. Had the Scot's voted for independence, would Parliament have insisted on strong Unionist MPs having a meaningful say in the outcome? If so, would the Scots have agreed?