The answer to all of this is to accept TM WDA and seek a three month extension to do the parliamentary bit
We could be breathing a sigh of relief in the next few weeks and move onto the domestic agenda
Let us hope common sense prevails
What percentage of non-payroll MPs agree with that?
I hope the ERG see sense before they lose it all
If the Irish see sense then we can have a deal we accept. The Poles are coming around, the EU is [at a glacial pace] beginning to turn. The Germans who see Ireland as some sort of partitioned Berlin and Irish need to see the whites in our eyes and realise we are serious and then a deal is reachable.
In that sense the ERG are seeing sense. So long as Parliament doesn't throw it all away first just as we're starting to see movement.
Which is why you could never have Brexit negotiated by the House of Commons. Which is what it has become. MPs who don't want any flavour of Brexit getting involved in the minutiae could only have one outcome: clusterfuck.
Though strangely it has been those most committed to Brexit who has been the most obstreperous when it comes to the details.
Really? I hadn't noticed Grieve and Soubry and Wollaston were committed to Brexit....
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Possibly, but I’m not convinced. When the EU doesn’t get their £ 39bn and the wrangles start between contributor nations and recipient nations, life in the EU might not seem so rosy.
Daniel Kawczynski is claiming the AG told him the legally due exit obligations are £8bn
He really is not a 'Govey'. Not keen on the 'Gover' either, Boris Johnson's moniker for him.
Can we do anything with his first name? Obviously not Mick or any variation of that. But Mike Gove? ... or even Mikey Gove?
Hmm, it worked for Michael Corleone, but it doesn't here. It sounds silly.
No, let's not waste any more time on this. He's the Environment Secretary, he's the next leader of the Conservative Party, and his name is Michael Gove.
Friends call his the Govegetter, lovers the Gove Machine, those who work with him the GOVERNATOR.
The answer to all of this is to accept TM WDA and seek a three month extension to do the parliamentary bit
We could be breathing a sigh of relief in the next few weeks and move onto the domestic agenda
Let us hope common sense prevails
What percentage of non-payroll MPs agree with that?
I hope the ERG see sense before they lose it all
If the Irish see sense then we can have a deal we accept. The Poles are coming around, the EU is [at a glacial pace] beginning to turn. The Germans who see Ireland as some sort of partitioned Berlin and Irish need to see the whites in our eyes and realise we are serious and then a deal is reachable.
In that sense the ERG are seeing sense. So long as Parliament doesn't throw it all away first just as we're starting to see movement.
Which is why you could never have Brexit negotiated by the House of Commons. Which is what it has become. MPs who don't want any flavour of Brexit getting involved in the minutiae could only have one outcome: clusterfuck.
Though strangely it has been those most committed to Brexit who has been the most obstreperous when it comes to the details.
Really? I hadn't noticed Grieve and Soubry and Wollaston were committed to Brexit....
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
The odds for another referendum on betfair are 15/8. That's a 33% chance. 1 in 3.
Now setting aside all of the arguments about whether it would be a good or a bad idea - the correct answer is bad - what do we make of these odds? BTW it has to be one with Remain as an option to count for this market, and it has to take place this year.
Think of the obstacles. PM resolutely opposed. LOTO resolutely opposed. Less parliamentary backing amongst MPs than for almost any other feasible course of action bar a No Deal crash out. The time it would take to legislate for and arrange. The bun fight over the question and the formulation.
And then forget all of that, the details, and simply consider it as a prospect. We all remember the 2016 one like it was yesterday. How it galvanized and captured the country. The commitment it took. The energy. The sense of participating in something massive and historic and one time. The gravity and import of that terrible result as it sunk in.
I ask you, can we really envisage going through that again this year?
Really?
I certainly can't. It remains a possible technique that could be used to break a parliamentary impasse - so I am not going to rule it out - but I submit that it is no way a 1 in 3 chance. It is a 1 in 5 chance at absolute best.
EU referendum in 2019 - a bad kisser but a great lay.
The impasse has to be resolved somehow. Throwing the decision back to the people is potentially the least fraught. It would be an admission of defeat, of course, but the politicians look defeated just now.
Given the complete absence of a consensus for anything else, it still looks to me more likely than not.
The problem is that the voters can't necessarily be relied upon to do what the MP's want.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
George Osborne has popped up on Bloomberg TV to say that he feels the likelihood of an imminent election is “underappreciated” and that a number of Conservative MPs would back Corbyn in a vote of no confidence because “they would rather have a general election than see our country leave the EU without a deal.”
The answer to all of this is to accept TM WDA and seek a three month extension to do the parliamentary bit
We could be breathing a sigh of relief in the next few weeks and move onto the domestic agenda
Let us hope common sense prevails
What percentage of non-payroll MPs agree with that?
I hope the ERG see sense before they lose it all
If the Irish see sense then we can have a deal we accept. The Poles are coming around, the EU is [at a glacial pace] beginning to turn. The Germans who see Ireland as some sort of partitioned Berlin and Irish need to see the whites in our eyes and realise we are serious and then a deal is reachable.
In that sense the ERG are seeing sense. So long as Parliament doesn't throw it all away first just as we're starting to see movement.
Which is why you could never have Brexit negotiated by the House of Commons. Which is what it has become. MPs who don't want any flavour of Brexit getting involved in the minutiae could only have one outcome: clusterfuck.
Though strangely it has been those most committed to Brexit who has been the most obstreperous when it comes to the details.
Really? I hadn't noticed Grieve and Soubry and Wollaston were committed to Brexit....
More #ComicalMark
I'm sure people are finding my contributions more of a hoot than yours.....
He really is not a 'Govey'. Not keen on the 'Gover' either, Boris Johnson's moniker for him.
Can we do anything with his first name? Obviously not Mick or any variation of that. But Mike Gove? ... or even Mikey Gove?
Hmm, it worked for Michael Corleone, but it doesn't here. It sounds silly.
No, let's not waste any more time on this. He's the Environment Secretary, he's the next leader of the Conservative Party, and his name is Michael Gove.
Friends call his the Govegetter, lovers the Gove Machine, those who work with him the GOVERNATOR.
I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.
1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.
2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.
3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.
4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.
+1.
If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
Ah, the old chestnut of 'complexity in the tax code'
Flat rate tax and flat earth society go hand in hand!
5 EU countries already have a flat tax. Two of them - Estonia and Lithuania - also have some of the most progressive benefits policies in the world. Estonia also scores well above average in OECD rankings for education. If the aim is to prevent avoidance and to raise more money for services then flat rate taxes work.
Easy to do if you are also channeling 200 billion euros from dubious sources.
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Unless we sail out. We "crash out" in the same way we "crashed out" of the ERM and then soar away ahead of them. We're already the fastest growing European G7 nation at the minute "despite Brexit". If the fears of "crashing out" are shown to be vacuuous then that could cause a lot of rethinking amongst those currently sceptical at the idea that maybe we Brits are not so crazy afterall.
The answer to all of this is to accept TM WDA and seek a three month extension to do the parliamentary bit
We could be breathing a sigh of relief in the next few weeks and move onto the domestic agenda
Let us hope common sense prevails
What percentage of non-payroll MPs agree with that?
I hope the ERG see sense before they lose it all
If the Irish see sense then we can have a deal we accept. The Poles are coming around, the EU is [at a glacial pace] beginning to turn. The Germans who see Ireland as some sort of partitioned Berlin and Irish need to see the whites in our eyes and realise we are serious and then a deal is reachable.
In that sense the ERG are seeing sense. So long as Parliament doesn't throw it all away first just as we're starting to see movement.
Which is why you could never have Brexit negotiated by the House of Commons. Which is what it has become. MPs who don't want any flavour of Brexit getting involved in the minutiae could only have one outcome: clusterfuck.
Have you not been following the news on how the executive is doing in getting the deal done?
I think the reason that Gove is a reasonable bet is that there's several plausible scenarios in which he becomes leader.
1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.
2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.
3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.
4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.
+1.
If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
Ah, the old chestnut of 'complexity in the tax code'
Flat rate tax and flat earth society go hand in hand!
5 EU countries already have a flat tax. Two of them - Estonia and Lithuania - also have some of the most progressive benefits policies in the world. Estonia also scores well above average in OECD rankings for education. If the aim is to prevent avoidance and to raise more money for services then flat rate taxes work.
Easy to do if you are also channeling 200 billion euros from dubious sources.
I thought the UK channeled trillions per annum from dubious sources?
Imagine that you are an ERG MP who voted against the deal last week. At what point do you start wondering how big a mistake you made?
The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line, Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.
The level of stupidity of some of them can be measured by the fact that Nadine Dorres has seen the light!
He really is not a 'Govey'. Not keen on the 'Gover' either, Boris Johnson's moniker for him.
Can we do anything with his first name? Obviously not Mick or any variation of that. But Mike Gove? ... or even Mikey Gove?
Hmm, it worked for Michael Corleone, but it doesn't here. It sounds silly.
No, let's not waste any more time on this. He's the Environment Secretary, he's the next leader of the Conservative Party, and his name is Michael Gove.
Friends call his the Govegetter, lovers the Gove Machine, those who work with him the GOVERNATOR.
Gove has friends? Plural?
Not, I suspect, as many as he might have had once upon a time.
The odds for another referendum on betfair are 15/8. That's a 33% chance. 1 in 3.
Now setting aside all of the arguments about whether it would be a good or a bad idea - the correct answer is bad - what do we make of these odds? BTW it has to be one with Remain as an option to count for this market, and it has to take place this year.
Think of the obstacles. PM resolutely opposed. LOTO resolutely opposed. Less parliamentary backing amongst MPs than for almost any other feasible course of action bar a No Deal crash out. The time it would take to legislate for and arrange. The bun fight over the question and the formulation.
And then forget all of that, the details, and simply consider it as a prospect. We all remember the 2016 one like it was yesterday. How it galvanized and captured the country. The commitment it took. The energy. The sense of participating in something massive and historic and one time. The gravity and import of that terrible result as it sunk in.
I ask you, can we really envisage going through that again this year?
Really?
I certainly can't. It remains a possible technique that could be used to break a parliamentary impasse - so I am not going to rule it out - but I submit that it is no way a 1 in 3 chance. It is a 1 in 5 chance at absolute best.
EU referendum in 2019 - a bad kisser but a great lay.
The impasse has to be resolved somehow. Throwing the decision back to the people is potentially the least fraught. It would be an admission of defeat, of course, but the politicians look defeated just now.
Given the complete absence of a consensus for anything else, it still looks to me more likely than not.
The problem is that the voters can't necessarily be relied upon to do what the MP's want.
Either way MPs would get their get out of jail free cards.
The answer to all of this is to accept TM WDA and seek a three month extension to do the parliamentary bit
We could be breathing a sigh of relief in the next few weeks and move onto the domestic agenda
Let us hope common sense prevails
What percentage of non-payroll MPs agree with that?
I hope the ERG see sense before they lose it all
If the Irish see sense then we can have a deal we accept. The Poles are coming around, the EU is [at a glacial pace] beginning to turn. The Germans who see Ireland as some sort of partitioned Berlin and Irish need to see the whites in our eyes and realise we are serious and then a deal is reachable.
In that sense the ERG are seeing sense. So long as Parliament doesn't throw it all away first just as we're starting to see movement.
Which is why you could never have Brexit negotiated by the House of Commons. Which is what it has become. MPs who don't want any flavour of Brexit getting involved in the minutiae could only have one outcome: clusterfuck.
Have you not been following the news on how the executive is doing in getting the deal done?
But the executive has done the deal.
It's just the legislature won't approve it, for a multitude of reasons. Mostly because they don't want to approve ANY deal.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Are you saying that if parliament had been dissolved the deal could be ratified without a vote in the Commons?
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Possibly, but I’m not convinced. When the EU doesn’t get their £ 39bn and the wrangles start between contributor nations and recipient nations, life in the EU might not seem so rosy.
Daniel Kawczynski is claiming the AG told him the legally due exit obligations are £8bn
That’s interesting. I can’t see May staying if her deal craters and she appears to be one of the few with any loyalty to the £ 39bn which is not surprising as it was agreed on her watch.
I am sure we will pay what is legally due if there is ever any unity on that, but maybe not all at once. £8bn won’t be anywhere near enough to avoid an EU bunfight.
The Irish are already reported to be saying they’ll need c € 300bn in aid if there is no deal. Finding that won’t be easy.
Imagine that you are an ERG MP who voted against the deal last week. At what point do you start wondering how big a mistake you made?
The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line, Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.
The level of stupidity of some of them can be measured by the fact that Nadine Norris has seen the light!
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
George Osborne has popped up on Bloomberg TV to say that he feels the likelihood of an imminent election is “underappreciated” and that a number of Conservative MPs would back Corbyn in a vote of no confidence because “they would rather have a general election than see our country leave the EU without a deal.”
It is possible that Brexit has driven one or two of them so mad that they would actually vote against their own government in a confidence vote but If any Tory MP backed Corbyn in a VONC they wouldn't be Tory MPs for long and they wouldn't be able to stand as Tory candidates in the subsequent election either as they'd have to be expelled from the party?
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Possibly, but I’m not convinced. When the EU doesn’t get their £ 39bn and the wrangles start between contributor nations and recipient nations, life in the EU might not seem so rosy.
Daniel Kawczynski is claiming the AG told him the legally due exit obligations are £8bn
That’s interesting. I can’t see May staying if her deal craters and she appears to be one of the few with any loyalty to the £ 39bn which is not surprising as it was agreed on her watch.
I am sure we will pay what is legally due if there is ever any unity on that, but maybe not all at once. £8bn won’t be anywhere near enough to avoid an EU bunfight.
The Irish are already reported to be saying they’ll need c € 300bn in aid if there is no deal. Finding that won’t be easy.
Finding a eurocent could be difficult if the rest of the EU deems Irish intransigence as what cost them the Deal. Easy to hold a united front when you think you can get what you want, a tad different when there are bills to pay.
'Oh and about that low level of corporation tax you have there ...'
The answer to all of this is to accept TM WDA and seek a three month extension to do the parliamentary bit
We could be breathing a sigh of relief in the next few weeks and move onto the domestic agenda
Let us hope common sense prevails
What percentage of non-payroll MPs agree with that?
I hope the ERG see sense before they lose it all
If the Irish see sense then we can have a deal we accept. The Poles are coming around, the EU is [at a glacial pace] beginning to turn. The Germans who see Ireland as some sort of partitioned Berlin and Irish need to see the whites in our eyes and realise we are serious and then a deal is reachable.
In that sense the ERG are seeing sense. So long as Parliament doesn't throw it all away first just as we're starting to see movement.
Which is why you could never have Brexit negotiated by the House of Commons. Which is what it has become. MPs who don't want any flavour of Brexit getting involved in the minutiae could only have one outcome: clusterfuck.
Have you not been following the news on how the executive is doing in getting the deal done?
But the executive has done the deal.
It's just the legislature won't approve it, for a multitude of reasons. Mostly because they don't want to approve ANY deal.
Oh, the legislators will approve a deal. It's just that they can't agree on which one!
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
George Osborne has popped up on Bloomberg TV to say that he feels the likelihood of an imminent election is “underappreciated” and that a number of Conservative MPs would back Corbyn in a vote of no confidence because “they would rather have a general election than see our country leave the EU without a deal.”
It is possible that Brexit has driven one or two of them so mad that they would actually vote against their own government in a confidence vote but If any Tory MP backed Corbyn in a VONC they wouldn't be Tory MPs for long and they wouldn't be able to stand as Tory candidates in the subsequent election either as they'd have to be expelled from the party?
Indeed if the Grieve/Wollaston-wing of the party do carry out the ultimate betrayal of the party (in a manner worse than even TPD Reckless) then any post-election Tory Party will be more united and more Eurosceptic than it was beforehand.
That’s interesting. I can’t see May staying if her deal craters and she appears to be one of the few with any loyalty to the £ 39bn which is not surprising as it was agreed on her watch.
I am sure we will pay what is legally due if there is ever any unity on that, but maybe not all at once. £8bn won’t be anywhere near enough to avoid an EU bunfight.
The Irish are already reported to be saying they’ll need c € 300bn in aid if there is no deal. Finding that won’t be easy.
Much of the €39bn relates to the transition period. So it's perfectly possible that €8bn would cover the immediate liabilities if, God forbid, we crash out with no transition. Of course in that scenario we'd very soon go grovelling back in an attempt to do a deal which undoes the worst of the damage, when no doubt the difference would be claimed by the EU.
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Possibly, but I’m not convinced. When the EU doesn’t get their £ 39bn and the wrangles start between contributor nations and recipient nations, life in the EU might not seem so rosy.
Daniel Kawczynski is claiming the AG told him the legally due exit obligations are £8bn
That’s interesting. I can’t see May staying if her deal craters and she appears to be one of the few with any loyalty to the £ 39bn which is not surprising as it was agreed on her watch.
I am sure we will pay what is legally due if there is ever any unity on that, but maybe not all at once. £8bn won’t be anywhere near enough to avoid an EU bunfight.
The Irish are already reported to be saying they’ll need c € 300bn in aid if there is no deal. Finding that won’t be easy.
Finding a eurocent could be difficult if the rest of the EU deems Irish intransigence as what cost them the Deal. Easy to hold a united front when you think you can get what you want, a tad different when there are bills to pay.
'Oh and about that low level of corporation tax you have there ...'
Exactly, and if the Irish lose their low CT rate, including their Dublin Docks scheme, there could be quite an exodus of businesses.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
George Osborne has popped up on Bloomberg TV to say that he feels the likelihood of an imminent election is “underappreciated” and that a number of Conservative MPs would back Corbyn in a vote of no confidence because “they would rather have a general election than see our country leave the EU without a deal.”
It is possible that Brexit has driven one or two of them so mad that they would actually vote against their own government in a confidence vote but If any Tory MP backed Corbyn in a VONC they wouldn't be Tory MPs for long and they wouldn't be able to stand as Tory candidates in the subsequent election either as they'd have to be expelled from the party?
There is of course just the possibility there are one or two MPs in the house who put the country's interests above that of their Party, or even themselves, and would not be prepared to see us all go to hell in a handcart at any price.
People tell me that Davos is a soulless dump, anyway. There are much nicer places you could go to for a freebie, like Oxford, or Dubrovnik, or Prague.
Dubrovnik is very pretty but chock-a-block with third agers off the cruise liners blocking the narrow streets shouting in cut-glass accents: "Darling. Darling? Could you just step back a bit so I can get you in the photo completely?"
just think
in ten years or so that will be you and the young folk will be laughing at you as an aged sad sack with antiquarian views
In ten years time, the Transient Visitor Tax (dibs on the copyright) will exclude all those ghastly day trippers from cruise liners in favour of authentic tourists travellers, staying in establishments which don't dilute the local inhabitants' occupancy and who have a deep and respectful appreciation of place and culture....
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Possibly, but I’m not convinced. When the EU doesn’t get their £ 39bn and the wrangles start between contributor nations and recipient nations, life in the EU might not seem so rosy.
Daniel Kawczynski is claiming the AG told him the legally due exit obligations are £8bn
That’s interesting. I can’t see May staying if her deal craters and she appears to be one of the few with any loyalty to the £ 39bn which is not surprising as it was agreed on her watch.
I am sure we will pay what is legally due if there is ever any unity on that, but maybe not all at once. £8bn won’t be anywhere near enough to avoid an EU bunfight.
The Irish are already reported to be saying they’ll need c € 300bn in aid if there is no deal. Finding that won’t be easy.
Finding a eurocent could be difficult if the rest of the EU deems Irish intransigence as what cost them the Deal. Easy to hold a united front when you think you can get what you want, a tad different when there are bills to pay.
'Oh and about that low level of corporation tax you have there ...'
At this point it’s worth remembering that the Buccaneers have been telling us for three years that the EU27 are on the verge of falling-out. Rather like German motor manufacturers rushing to our aid it’s a fantasy that has yet to materialise.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Are you saying that if parliament had been dissolved the deal could be ratified without a vote in the Commons?
Civil Contingencies Act 2004....section 1(2)(e)disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel,
So to ensure the security of food supplies, the PM could pretty much do what she wants....
s.22 Scope of emergency regulations
(1) Emergency regulations may make any provision which the person making the regulations is satisfied is appropriate for the purpose of preventing, controlling or mitigating an aspect or effect of the emergency in respect of which the regulations are made.....
Have you not been following the news on how the executive is doing in getting the deal done?
The executive has got it done.
Nope it has not, because it does not have the requisite support of the legislature, which is an essential part of the deal. It is therefore not a closed deal, hence the requirement to return and ask for more gruel. The previous poster mentioned how Parliament working out a deal would be a "clusterfuck", so my point was how would one not use the same expression to describe the efforts of the government?
At this point it’s worth remembering that the Buccaneers have been telling us for three years that the EU27 are on the verge of falling-out. Rather like German motor manufacturers rushing to our aid it’s a fantasy that has yet to materialise.
You think the last 24 hours are "EU business as usual" in Ireland?
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Are you saying that if parliament had been dissolved the deal could be ratified without a vote in the Commons?
Civil Contingencies Act 2004....section 1(2)(e)disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel,
So to ensure the security of food supplies, the PM could pretty much do what she wants....
s.22 Scope of emergency regulations
(1) Emergency regulations may make any provision which the person making the regulations is satisfied is appropriate for the purpose of preventing, controlling or mitigating an aspect or effect of the emergency in respect of which the regulations are made.....
That's nothing to do with parliament being dissolved.
The implication of what you posted seemed to be that a general election would provide a way around the requirement for the deal to be approved by the Commons. You're not saying that?
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
George Osborne has popped up on Bloomberg TV to say that he feels the likelihood of an imminent election is “underappreciated” and that a number of Conservative MPs would back Corbyn in a vote of no confidence because “they would rather have a general election than see our country leave the EU without a deal.”
It is possible that Brexit has driven one or two of them so mad that they would actually vote against their own government in a confidence vote but If any Tory MP backed Corbyn in a VONC they wouldn't be Tory MPs for long and they wouldn't be able to stand as Tory candidates in the subsequent election either as they'd have to be expelled from the party?
Sam Curran in instead of Stuart Broad and England playing two spinners...
Very big call. I feel for the furniture, crockery and IT equipment in the England team room right now.
I actually don't think it is that big of a call.
Broad is now a total rabbit with the bat, and I have said for years that England standard attack of Anderson, Broad, Stokes, Woakes + Wood / Finn / Whatever other duffer they have tried, is far too samey in they are all right arm, similar pace (albeit Anderson is swing vs Broad seam).
The Irish are already reported to be saying they’ll need c € 300bn in aid if there is no deal. Finding that won’t be easy.
Finding a eurocent could be difficult if the rest of the EU deems Irish intransigence as what cost them the Deal. Easy to hold a united front when you think you can get what you want, a tad different when there are bills to pay.
'Oh and about that low level of corporation tax you have there ...'
At this point it’s worth remembering that the Buccaneers have been telling us for three years that the EU27 are on the verge of falling-out. Rather like German motor manufacturers rushing to our aid it’s a fantasy that has yet to materialise.
I've never said that and I'm still not saying they're on the verge of falling out, I'm saying any falling out will be after a No Deal Brexit. It's easy to be united against a common "enemy" and I use the word deliberately that is how they're treating us. After the fact though, and once we are out however it happens is another story.
I went there before the war, when it was still Yugoslavia. Got on a boat which sailed down from Rijeka. Slept on deck, watched the sun rise and when we landed we’d go into town to buy whatever food was available in the market. Seeing these towns from the sea was glorious. There were no tourists. I was the only foreigner and communicating was difficult - a lot of pointing and hand gestures to indicate the size of the loaf I wanted. The only people I found who wanted to speak English were some youths who wanted my views on football. So a lot of bluffing followed. Strangely (or perhaps not) in Slovenia, where I started out, they were very reluctant to speak any Italian.
It broke my heart to see Dubrovnik and other places being shelled and bombed a few years later.
I find that quite surprising (the apparent total lack of tourists), as my recollection from working in the travel business in the 70's and early 80's was that Yugoslavia was a hugely popular destination for UK holidaymakers. There were direct flights from many UK airports to all Yugoslavian airports with a well developed tourism infrastructure.
Like many tourist destinations, tourists tend to be concentrated in one area and oblivious to everywhere else. I was in Mauritius for discussions with the Government a few years ago and took a day's leave to look around. Outside the beach area, there was nobody at all who looked like a tourist.
Come to that, you don't see a lot of tourists in Haslemere or Nottingham or Bolsover.
Having whipped up his supporters into a frenzy of WTO no deal mania, I don't think he can pull off a climbdown without feeling the wrath of Brexit betrayal.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
George Osborne has popped up on Bloomberg TV to say that he feels the likelihood of an imminent election is “underappreciated” and that a number of Conservative MPs would back Corbyn in a vote of no confidence because “they would rather have a general election than see our country leave the EU without a deal.”
It is possible that Brexit has driven one or two of them so mad that they would actually vote against their own government in a confidence vote but If any Tory MP backed Corbyn in a VONC they wouldn't be Tory MPs for long and they wouldn't be able to stand as Tory candidates in the subsequent election either as they'd have to be expelled from the party?
Possible, but not necessarily.
Well I'm not a Tory member so I don't know about the ins and outs of this but I find it far-fetched that an MP could no confidence his or her own government and bring about a general election and then stand as a candidate for the party/government they've said they don't have confidence in...
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Are you saying that if parliament had been dissolved the deal could be ratified without a vote in the Commons?
Civil Contingencies Act 2004....section 1(2)(e)disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel,
So to ensure the security of food supplies, the PM could pretty much do what she wants....
s.22 Scope of emergency regulations
(1) Emergency regulations may make any provision which the person making the regulations is satisfied is appropriate for the purpose of preventing, controlling or mitigating an aspect or effect of the emergency in respect of which the regulations are made.....
That's nothing to do with parliament being dissolved.
The implication of what you posted seemed to be that a general election would provide a way around the requirement for the deal to be approved by the Commons. You're not saying that?
I'm saying combine the two - CCA 2004 with no sitting MPs. May just gets on a plane to Brussels with her signing pen....
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
Having whipped up his supporters into a frenzy of WTO no deal mania, I don't think he can pull off a climbdown without feeling the wrath of Brexit betrayal.
He's never [to my knowledge] said no deal is better than any deal, he's said that no deal is better than this deal as it stands. If the deal changes, if our concerns get addressed, then it is entirely rational to change to back it.
I've said all along I oppose the deal as is but would back it if the backstop is dealt with and I expect Parliament would too.
That’s interesting. I can’t see May staying if her deal craters and she appears to be one of the few with any loyalty to the £ 39bn which is not surprising as it was agreed on her watch.
I am sure we will pay what is legally due if there is ever any unity on that, but maybe not all at once. £8bn won’t be anywhere near enough to avoid an EU bunfight.
The Irish are already reported to be saying they’ll need c € 300bn in aid if there is no deal. Finding that won’t be easy.
Much of the €39bn relates to the transition period. So it's perfectly possible that €8bn would cover the immediate liabilities if, God forbid, we crash out with no transition. Of course in that scenario we'd very soon go grovelling back in an attempt to do a deal which undoes the worst of the damage, when no doubt the difference would be claimed by the EU.
I am not convinced about whether we would go “grovelling back” or not and certainly not with your suggested timescale. I think that rather depends upon who is Downing St and with what brief. I also doubt that the EU would want to expedite a UK return for the money either. We’d probably be in long process to reapply which would involve no opt outs, joint Schengen and the Eurozone etc.
Sam Curran in instead of Stuart Broad and England playing two spinners...
Very big call. I feel for the furniture, crockery and IT equipment in the England team room right now.
I actually don't think it is that big of a call.
Broad is now a total rabbit with the bat, and I have said for years that England standard attack of Anderson, Broad, Stokes, Woakes + Wood / Finn / Whatever other duffer they have tried, is far too samey in they are all right arm, similar pace (albeit Anderson is swing vs Broad seam).
Oh for heaven's sake. They are just throwing a ball at a man with a bat. How hard can it be?
Having whipped up his supporters into a frenzy of WTO no deal mania, I don't think he can pull off a climbdown without feeling the wrath of Brexit betrayal.
Brexiteers and DUP are moving. EU and Ireland seem to be moving slightly too.
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
If there were a global supranational organisation along the lines of the EU, would you want to join it?
I can't help feeling it's skin deep with Raab. He'd have been better off turning down the BrexSec job and looking like 'someone you could take to meet your mother' on the backbenches. But his short tenure and the daftness over Dover's importance make it easy to question how much of a heavyweight he could be. I'd have placed him higher a year ago, or maybe the day after he became BrexSec.
I agree. Raab is eye candy. Nothing wrong with that if you also have some heft and backbone - Gordon Brown, for example, was a looker but nobody could say that Blair made him Chancellor for that reason. With Dominic Raab the suspicion, as you say, is that the appeal is to the senses and little else.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Are you saying that if parliament had been dissolved the deal could be ratified without a vote in the Commons?
Civil Contingencies Act 2004....section 1(2)(e)disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel,
So to ensure the security of food supplies, the PM could pretty much do what she wants....
s.22 Scope of emergency regulations
(1) Emergency regulations may make any provision which the person making the regulations is satisfied is appropriate for the purpose of preventing, controlling or mitigating an aspect or effect of the emergency in respect of which the regulations are made.....
That's nothing to do with parliament being dissolved.
The implication of what you posted seemed to be that a general election would provide a way around the requirement for the deal to be approved by the Commons. You're not saying that?
I'm saying combine the two - CCA 2004 with no sitting MPs. May just gets on a plane to Brussels with her signing pen....
No offence but that's a terrible idea during an election campaign and would result in an absolute hammering.
Any government having to enact the CCA 2004 at the best of times would be devastating (barring acts of war/natural disaster etc) - doing so in order to enact something your own supporters and MPs hate during an election ... madness.
What has/is/was the Polish Gov't saying or doing. They'll refuse to extend Art 50 ?
There was a suggestion that they would argue for a time-limited backstop.
There was but there was also the reply they gave to the rogue MP yesterday when he made his 'formal' request for them to block an extension. I think they made it pretty clear they were not breaking ranks at that point.
I wonder if anyone can make 'formal' requests to the Polish government? I might formally request a lifetime supply of Begos and Polish Vodka
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
If there were a global supranational organisation along the lines of the EU, would you want to join it?
Nope. Why would I want my domestic laws set by the Americans, Chinese and Indonesians?
A slimmed down trade organisation only then yes. We could call it a World Trade Organisation perhaps?
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Are you saying that if parliament had been dissolved the deal could be ratified without a vote in the Commons?
Civil Contingencies Act 2004....section 1(2)(e)disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel,
So to ensure the security of food supplies, the PM could pretty much do what she wants....
s.22 Scope of emergency regulations
(1) Emergency regulations may make any provision which the person making the regulations is satisfied is appropriate for the purpose of preventing, controlling or mitigating an aspect or effect of the emergency in respect of which the regulations are made.....
That's nothing to do with parliament being dissolved.
The implication of what you posted seemed to be that a general election would provide a way around the requirement for the deal to be approved by the Commons. You're not saying that?
I'm saying combine the two - CCA 2004 with no sitting MPs. May just gets on a plane to Brussels with her signing pen....
No offence but that's a terrible idea during an election campaign and would result in an absolute hammering.
Any government having to enact the CCA 2004 at the best of times would be devastating (barring acts of war/natural disaster etc) - doing so in order to enact something your own supporters and MPs hate during an election ... madness.
Most people would just say "Phew - that's Brexit done. Now, candidates - what are your plans for afterwards?"
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
If there were a global supranational organisation along the lines of the EU, would you want to join it?
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Are you saying that if parliament had been dissolved the deal could be ratified without a vote in the Commons?
Civil Contingencies Act 2004....section 1(2)(e)disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel,
So to ensure the security of food supplies, the PM could pretty much do what she wants....
s.22 Scope of emergency regulations
(1) Emergency regulations may make any provision which the person making the regulations is satisfied is appropriate for the purpose of preventing, controlling or mitigating an aspect or effect of the emergency in respect of which the regulations are made.....
That's nothing to do with parliament being dissolved.
The implication of what you posted seemed to be that a general election would provide a way around the requirement for the deal to be approved by the Commons. You're not saying that?
I'm saying combine the two - CCA 2004 with no sitting MPs. May just gets on a plane to Brussels with her signing pen....
Right. You're not saying a general election would provide a way around the requirement for the deal to be approved by the Commons.
The answer to all of this is to accept TM WDA and seek a three month extension to do the parliamentary bit
We could be breathing a sigh of relief in the next few weeks and move onto the domestic agenda
Let us hope common sense prevails
What percentage of non-payroll MPs agree with that?
I hope the ERG see sense before they lose it all
If the Irish see sense then we can have a deal we accept. The Poles are coming around, the EU is [at a glacial pace] beginning to turn. The Germans who see Ireland as some sort of partitioned Berlin and Irish need to see the whites in our eyes and realise we are serious and then a deal is reachable.
In that sense the ERG are seeing sense. So long as Parliament doesn't throw it all away first just as we're starting to see movement.
Which is why you could never have Brexit negotiated by the House of Commons. Which is what it has become. MPs who don't want any flavour of Brexit getting involved in the minutiae could only have one outcome: clusterfuck.
Though strangely it has been those most committed to Brexit who has been the most obstreperous when it comes to the details.
Really? I hadn't noticed Grieve and Soubry and Wollaston were committed to Brexit....
More #ComicalMark
I'm sure people are finding my contributions more of a hoot than yours.....
Certainly, for those people coming here for laughs, I am happy to concede that you are winning hands down.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
George Osborne has popped up on Bloomberg TV to say that he feels the likelihood of an imminent election is “underappreciated” and that a number of Conservative MPs would back Corbyn in a vote of no confidence because “they would rather have a general election than see our country leave the EU without a deal.”
I’d love to know how many MPs he thinks are actually prepared to cross the floor and vote down their own government. It can’t be more than a couple, they’d be throwing their careers away.
If the facts change, people’s views will change. The backstop was always a deal killer. I don’t see May’s deal passing with the backstop. The DUP will need to change to convince enough that a revised deal is worth backing.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
George Osborne has popped up on Bloomberg TV to say that he feels the likelihood of an imminent election is “underappreciated” and that a number of Conservative MPs would back Corbyn in a vote of no confidence because “they would rather have a general election than see our country leave the EU without a deal.”
It is possible that Brexit has driven one or two of them so mad that they would actually vote against their own government in a confidence vote but If any Tory MP backed Corbyn in a VONC they wouldn't be Tory MPs for long and they wouldn't be able to stand as Tory candidates in the subsequent election either as they'd have to be expelled from the party?
Possible, but not necessarily.
Well I'm not a Tory member so I don't know about the ins and outs of this but I find it far-fetched that an MP could no confidence his or her own government and bring about a general election and then stand as a candidate for the party/government they've said they don't have confidence in...
What has/is/was the Polish Gov't saying or doing. They'll refuse to extend Art 50 ?
There was a suggestion that they would argue for a time-limited backstop.
There was but there was also the reply they gave to the rogue MP yesterday when he made his 'formal' request for them to block an extension. I think they made it pretty clear they were not breaking ranks at that point.
I wonder if anyone can make 'formal' requests to the Polish government? I might formally request a lifetime supply of Begos and Polish Vodka
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
How many deals has the disgraced GP got lined up? Big fat zero. Apparently it was all going to be easy. You may be looking to the rest of the world Richard, but most of the people who advocate this stuff are simply old fashioned foreigner hating protectionists.
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Are you saying that if parliament had been dissolved the deal could be ratified without a vote in the Commons?
Civil Contingencies Act 2004....section 1(2)(e)disruption of a supply of money, food, water, energy or fuel,
So to ensure the security of food supplies, the PM could pretty much do what she wants....
s.22 Scope of emergency regulations
(1) Emergency regulations may make any provision which the person making the regulations is satisfied is appropriate for the purpose of preventing, controlling or mitigating an aspect or effect of the emergency in respect of which the regulations are made.....
That's nothing to do with parliament being dissolved.
The implication of what you posted seemed to be that a general election would provide a way around the requirement for the deal to be approved by the Commons. You're not saying that?
I'm saying combine the two - CCA 2004 with no sitting MPs. May just gets on a plane to Brussels with her signing pen....
No offence but that's a terrible idea during an election campaign and would result in an absolute hammering.
Any government having to enact the CCA 2004 at the best of times would be devastating (barring acts of war/natural disaster etc) - doing so in order to enact something your own supporters and MPs hate during an election ... madness.
Most people would just say "Phew - that's Brexit done. Now, candidates - what are your plans for afterwards?"
If it happened during an election? No they wouldn't.
Sam Curran in instead of Stuart Broad and England playing two spinners...
Very big call. I feel for the furniture, crockery and IT equipment in the England team room right now.
I actually don't think it is that big of a call.
Broad is now a total rabbit with the bat, and I have said for years that England standard attack of Anderson, Broad, Stokes, Woakes + Wood / Finn / Whatever other duffer they have tried, is far too samey in they are all right arm, similar pace (albeit Anderson is swing vs Broad seam).
Oh for heaven's sake. They are just throwing a ball at a man with a bat. How hard can it be?
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Unless we sail out. We "crash out" in the same way we "crashed out" of the ERM and then soar away ahead of them. We're already the fastest growing European G7 nation at the minute "despite Brexit". If the fears of "crashing out" are shown to be vacuuous then that could cause a lot of rethinking amongst those currently sceptical at the idea that maybe we Brits are not so crazy afterall.
The chance of an ERM redux is what’s keeping the EU elites awake at night. Their project is screwed if Beexit, especially no deal Brexit, becomes a clear success a few years down the line.
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
If there were a global supranational organisation along the lines of the EU, would you want to join it?
Not in a million years
Then your argument against the EU cannot be based on it being "little Europe".
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
When do you start the campaign for a free and independent Lincolnshire (apols if wrong county) - out from under the oppressive hand of those overbearing Londoners?
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
If there were a global supranational organisation along the lines of the EU, would you want to join it?
Not in a million years
Then your argument against the EU cannot be based on it being "little Europe".
To make a sensible decision you would need to analyse our prospects in an alternative position.
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
If there were a global supranational organisation along the lines of the EU, would you want to join it?
Not in a million years
Then your argument against the EU cannot be based on it being "little Europe".
May's best plan is to engineer a General Election where the campaign covers the period up to 29th March, so that the excutive can get on and implement May's Brexit/No Deal Brexit as it sees fit, without those pesky MPs being around to get in the way.
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
George Osborne has popped up on Bloomberg TV to say that he feels the likelihood of an imminent election is “underappreciated” and that a number of Conservative MPs would back Corbyn in a vote of no confidence because “they would rather have a general election than see our country leave the EU without a deal.”
It is possible that Brexit has driven one or two of them so mad that they would actually vote against their own government in a confidence vote but If any Tory MP backed Corbyn in a VONC they wouldn't be Tory MPs for long and they wouldn't be able to stand as Tory candidates in the subsequent election either as they'd have to be expelled from the party?
Possible, but not necessarily.
Well I'm not a Tory member so I don't know about the ins and outs of this but I find it far-fetched that an MP could no confidence his or her own government and bring about a general election and then stand as a candidate for the party/government they've said they don't have confidence in...
Such MPs would certainly be deselected.
That's what I'd have thought. It's the ultimate burning of bridges you can get in politics...
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Possibly, but I’m not convinced. When the EU doesn’t get their £ 39bn and the wrangles start between contributor nations and recipient nations, life in the EU might not seem so rosy.
Daniel Kawczynski is claiming the AG told him the legally due exit obligations are £8bn
That’s interesting. I can’t see May staying if her deal craters and she appears to be one of the few with any loyalty to the £ 39bn which is not surprising as it was agreed on her watch.
I am sure we will pay what is legally due if there is ever any unity on that, but maybe not all at once. £8bn won’t be anywhere near enough to avoid an EU bunfight.
The Irish are already reported to be saying they’ll need c € 300bn in aid if there is no deal. Finding that won’t be easy.
AIUI the £39bn is basically £26bn as 2 years transition, the legal obligations (let’s take your £8bn) pensions over 30 years and some odds and sods.
But it’s the £26bn that creates the hole in the budget
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Unless we sail out. We "crash out" in the same way we "crashed out" of the ERM and then soar away ahead of them. We're already the fastest growing European G7 nation at the minute "despite Brexit". If the fears of "crashing out" are shown to be vacuuous then that could cause a lot of rethinking amongst those currently sceptical at the idea that maybe we Brits are not so crazy afterall.
The chance of an ERM redux is what’s keeping the EU elites awake at night. Their project is screwed if Beexit, especially no deal Brexit, becomes a clear success a few years down the line.
I thought alcohol was in limited supply out where you are?
Then your argument against the EU cannot be based on it being "little Europe".
Not at all. There are many arguments against world government apart from answering the ridiculous luddite charge. The global EU model is wrong because the model is fundamentally wrong not because it has anything to do with the EU. But at the same time those arguing for staying in the EU are doing so because they fear the big wide world. All these ridiculous arguments about having to be part of the EU to stand against the US and China.
Those are your arguments not mine. I am just pointing out the idiocy of them.
Looks like the EU will choose to assume that Ireland is in a customs union with the UK and have the same border checks at ports of entry into the EU from Ireland and the UK.
So no hard border for Ireland between Ireland and NI but at Calais, Rotterdam etc.
This is because it is not possible for the EU to enforce a hard border between Ireland and NI without the cooperation of the UK and Ireland.
"[Varadkar] insisted the backstop is still alive, saying: “We cannot give it up in return for a promise that it will be all right on the night.”
Forget the night - you're gonna be stuffed by lunchtime, Leo....
#OverPlayingYourHand
It might have been a reasonable assumption that the UK Government would not be so stupid to crash out and the betting markets seem to agree. Can we really been watching a slow motion train crash where the UK and the Tory party are about to split up?
It might have a been a reasonble ssumption that the EU would not let us crash out.
There doesn't seem to be any evidence of that EU Stooopid Mountain getting any less.
Why would the EU care - if we crash out no-one is going to even whisper about leaving the EU ever again let alone talk about it...
Just so sad that I never saw our country's destiny being to become the Luddites of the 21st century.
Yes, an apt description. All very embarrassing. The country that saved Europe from right wing and left wing populism, only to be seen being sucked down a vortex of irrational political stupidity.
Nope. Its the Remainers who are the luddites - or more accurately the little Europeans, clinging to Nurse for fear of something worse. The rest of us are looking out to the other 93% of the world's population and the future.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
If there were a global supranational organisation along the lines of the EU, would you want to join it?
Nope. Why would I want my domestic laws set by the Americans, Chinese and Indonesians?
A slimmed down trade organisation only then yes. We could call it a World Trade Organisation perhaps?
Given you have never made a coherent argument about anything on here and I have serious doubts about whether or not you possess opposable thumbs I would suggest you are hardly in a position to judge who is a 'thicky' or not. Go back to banging your rocks together caveman.
Looks like the EU will choose to assume that Ireland is in a customs union with the UK and have the same border checks at ports of entry into the EU from Ireland and the UK.
Comments
Then we can vote on the relative outrage level of the candidates to the deal she does. The new intake can pick up the pieces. There'd be a lot of new faces....
It's just the legislature won't approve it, for a multitude of reasons. Mostly because they don't want to approve ANY deal.
I am sure we will pay what is legally due if there is ever any unity on that, but maybe not all at once. £8bn won’t be anywhere near enough to avoid an EU bunfight.
The Irish are already reported to be saying they’ll need c € 300bn in aid if there is no deal. Finding that won’t be easy.
'Oh and about that low level of corporation tax you have there ...'
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1088062959493005312?s=21
Wouldn't be many, but might be a few
touriststravellers, staying in establishments which don't dilute the local inhabitants' occupancy and who have a deep and respectful appreciation of place and culture....So to ensure the security of food supplies, the PM could pretty much do what she wants....
s.22 Scope of emergency regulations
(1) Emergency regulations may make any provision which the person making the
regulations is satisfied is appropriate for the purpose of preventing, controlling
or mitigating an aspect or effect of the emergency in respect of which the
regulations are made.....
The implication of what you posted seemed to be that a general election would provide a way around the requirement for the deal to be approved by the Commons. You're not saying that?
Broad is now a total rabbit with the bat, and I have said for years that England standard attack of Anderson, Broad, Stokes, Woakes + Wood / Finn / Whatever other duffer they have tried, is far too samey in they are all right arm, similar pace (albeit Anderson is swing vs Broad seam).
Come to that, you don't see a lot of tourists in Haslemere or Nottingham or Bolsover.
Changing the backstop is the rational compromise that makes the deal possible.
Membership of the EU was political and economic stupidity. Leaving is making a start on correcting that massive, illogical error.
I've said all along I oppose the deal as is but would back it if the backstop is dealt with and I expect Parliament would too.
DEAL is on the way. IMO.
Any government having to enact the CCA 2004 at the best of times would be devastating (barring acts of war/natural disaster etc) - doing so in order to enact something your own supporters and MPs hate during an election ... madness.
I wonder if anyone can make 'formal' requests to the Polish government? I might formally request a lifetime supply of Begos and Polish Vodka
A slimmed down trade organisation only then yes. We could call it a World Trade Organisation perhaps?
How does it differ from Plan A?
If it happened years before an election maybe.
If an Englishman? Very, very hard.....
You'll be proving things with facts next...
But it’s the £26bn that creates the hole in the budget
Those are your arguments not mine. I am just pointing out the idiocy of them.
So no hard border for Ireland between Ireland and NI but at Calais, Rotterdam etc.
This is because it is not possible for the EU to enforce a hard border between Ireland and NI without the cooperation of the UK and Ireland.