Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Govey maintaining and extending his lead in the next CON leade
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Govey maintaining and extending his lead in the next CON leader betting
Chart Betdata.io
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
It will be Sajid.
We already know he will be useless, as he lacks judgment and gravitas.
But he is not a treacherous boffin like Gove, or a narcissistic shitbag like Johnson, and not an embalmed corpse like Hunt.
The media will get excited for about 5 minutes that we have a Muslim-born PM, but his essential uselessness will shine through.
But not as good as McDonnell or Thornberry. Both would beat Javid.
Hunt would pay well.
Hague as interim PM in an emergency would pay even better.
On the Cooper amendment that defers brexit until the 31st December does anyone think the public will be pleased to have this indecision continuing until the end of this year ? It is plainly silly and of course the EU will only agree an extension for a definitive purpose, not so we can get our ducks in a row
Reading the thread it seems the general opinion is that labour will support it but the last I heard was that John McDonnell was in discussion to reduce the time to 3 and a half months.
But ultimately this is the mps can kicking in their own attempt to prevent brexit
"Democracy" keeps being mentioned by posters such as Mr. Tyndall. The slight problem is that trying to nail the democracy jelly to the wall is somewhat problematic. There are many different interpretations of what it means. Communists have a very different interpretation from those in liberal western "democracies".
Our own democracy is highly flawed. We have an hereditary Head of State. We have an unelected upper chamber in parliament. However, it largely works, mainly because it is founded on the basis of law, with a distinct separation of powers between the judiciary (remember those traitors of The People!) and the legislature. The executive is unfortunately too heavily entwined with the legislature in my opinion, but that is another matter.
So what of Brexit? Is what is happening democratic or undemocratic? My own reading, which I accept is not entirely impartial is that parliament is doing its job to some extent. We have a representative democracy based on delegated responsibility to MPs. The electorate chose Brexit by a small margin. It then decided, in its collective wisdom to give us a hung parliament, rather than overwhelming power to Mrs May, who, at the time of the election at least, very much gave the impression of being a convert to Brexit as a concept. So there we have it, the people decided, but they them decided to make it difficult. As Churchill might have said "The people have spoken, the bastards... but they don't seem to know what they want"
And on another subject does any agree with me that Davos is an affront to decency and demonstrates all that is wrong with big business and obscene wealth
Adam Boulton on Sky this morning said it costs a CEO $250,000 to attend
Then nearly anyone as next leader - they are all pygmies so I don't think it really matters - Gove can just about win ERG votes that others won't get so I think that's why he's current favourite but no one stands out to even Major's standard...
I saw Gove’s speech. It was garbage. Although it was a well overdue catalogue of Corbyn’s essential awfulness, there was not an original or interesting thought in there.
I agree though that Gove has earned the right to be CoE.
OGH's OP: [Boris's] time as Foreign Secretary hardly reinforced his case to be next leader. He’s now lost a bit of weight and tidied his hair – moves that look like preparation for a contest.
Boris has not tidied his hair: he is losing it. Look at recent clips of him speaking in the Commons, where the overhead cameras show an awful lot of scalp. Boris is reported to be back in bed with Lynton Crosby so must be a runner, but I still think he will be withdrawn at the start. Boris's back catalogue of colourful quotes mean he is (and the party under his leadership would be) vulnerable to the same attacks CCHQ has mounted against Jeremy Corbyn, as his fellow and rival Tory candidates will helpfully remind backbenchers.
As with the US Democrat primaries, there are too many potential candidates, none with outstanding claims. I'm keeping Hammond onside as a dark horse if May goes before Brexit.
She should be 50-1 plus here, how on earth is she going to win a poll of the members.
1.) Brexit caretaker - May's deal is voted through on the promise that she goes and is replaced by a Brexiteer for the next stage of negotiations. Gove is pretty much the only leading Brexiteer who wouldn't send the remain wing into open revolt - so emerges as a compromise until Brexit is done at least.
2.) Brexiteer spoiler - there's an open contest and the remain wing calculate that while they could get a Rudd, or even a Javid onto the members ballot against a Johnson, Raab or Mordaunt, they'd be trounced. So swing behind Gove as a spoiler who can beat them - and isn't prone to indulging in lunacy.
3.) Readiness in opposition. There's an election reasonably soon. Labour forms a minority government - Gove is elected as a safe pair of hands for when it all goes tits up.
4.) Wins a straight contest. He may not be liked much in the country, but is within the Tory Party - and no candidate who can plausibly win the membership can claim to be likely to win back Labour leaning remain voters - so his big negative doesn't really matter compared to his opponents. Would also probably get the Mail's backing.
And the immediate 100% roar of support from the backbenches was the first time they have united all together for a long time
Hmm..
If the leadership contest comes in the near future, the commitments the candidates would need to make to win would break the Conservative party.
Anyway, my point is:
- one speech is not enough to make a PM.
- the speech wasn’t actually all that good.
Whoever is the grassroots think is the most trusted on Brexit will win, simple as. On the "ah yes but MPs choose the two candidates to go through" (a) as a thread from a few weeks back stated, the bloc of the vote against May suggests Brexiteers can get their favoured candidate into the second round and (b) enough of the MPs are primarily motivated by concern over their jobs where they wouldn't risk putting two remainer / untrusted candidates to the membership.
If I was looking at this list above, I say Gove is too distrusted, Johnson is too hated by the other side (and the ERG probably realise that is the case to back him) and Raab is going the same way, Hunt / Javid are seen as flipfloppers and unreliable, Rudd is a joke and Davis is too old. Mourdant is out because she is seen as having "betrayed" Brexit by staying in the Cabinet.
Look for anyone else who is quite hardline Brexit
Other
+£43.32
Boris Johnson
-£100.52
Amber Rudd
-£300.00
If we can’t have him as PN can we please have him as Chancellor - we desperately need someone in that position who can think outside the box and would be committed to reducing the growing complexity in the tax code.
They made very clear that an extension would be dependent on a resolution being in sight. Asking for more time just to carry on arguing does not make it likely they will be forthcoming.
Flat rate tax and flat earth society go hand in hand!
https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1088011340399169536
May is he unity candidate.
Of course as I often point out, endorsement by an outgoing discredited leader is not nessecarily an advantage in a contest, something to be considered for all parties.
Both sides move on the backstop - ERG and DUP placated - it's the only likely way forward.
2nd Referendums and citizens workshops are for the birds.
Gove is too weird and sneaky for the "save the furniture" strategy they are going to need in the next election.
Even if it succeeds - an extension for Westminster to frig about a few more months? We still eventually arrive at a "piss or get off the pot" moment. Meanwhile, it just adds extra months where industry can't plan. From those arguing that the uncertainty of Brexit is costing jobs.
Idiots.
There may (but not at they moment) be a majority for a referendum, although that is not Remain, indeed it could be rephrased as agreeing to May’s Deal to Brexit, subject to the electorate’s approval.
From where I'm sitting, I'll take that thanks.
Sometimes, when assessing a race, whether the participants have 8 legs or 4 legs or only 2, you realize that one of the runners stands out to such an extent that you can dispense with the gaming out of exotic scenarios in which they do not win. This is the case for me with Gove and next Con leader. The trees might be whispering conflicting things but the message from the the forest is loud and clear: "Gonna be Gove!" it booms, or just occasionally, more sotto voce, "It has to be Michael."
I like it when this happens because it imbues one with a sense of confidence and authority when discussing the matter. The last time it happened as strongly as this was GE2017 when for all the talk of Labour surges and the Corbyn love in amongst younger voters, I knew - I just knew - that the actual result once all of the actual votes had been counted was going to be a solid overall majority for the Tories of between 60 and 80 seats.
I don't... think it'll be Boris. But it might be. More certain than that on Rudd.
He is a very poor conservative mp and I have already requested his de-selection, though I doubt he will hold the seat in an election anytime soon
Under most every scenario, that rules out Gove.
Was listening to the Irish minister on LBC Ian Dale last night who made a very good point. If the UK is on WTO and opens its borders to Eire it needs legally to do the same with the rest of the world. This would destroy UK industry as there is no need for reciprocal action by the rest of the world. This is so far the only scenario I can see that would kill my company. I will take another year of argument to avoid this.
I saw ageing gammon hauling themselves up and down stairs and Game of Thrones loons dresses inappropriately for the climate.
Superb for a moonlight dip though if you can grab a villa by the seafront.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFyXqxZzLFk
But also a prediction that the human race will be destroyed by Maybots, sorry I mean robots.
May should have set this up in autumn 2016.
https://perceptivetravel.com/blog/2017/12/11/cats-of-dubrovnik/
He was up against a formidable opponent too. OK, David Davis has become something of a comical figure now but back then, in the prime of life and fizzing with energy and ideas, he was quite something.
So Gove versus, say, Hancock? Or even against Gauke?
Nolo contendere IMHO.
in ten years or so that will be you and the young folk will be laughing at you as an aged sad sack with antiquarian views
Happy to be corrected.
A bit like your mobile phone plan. You sign up for a tariff: say, the "sole-trader limited company plan". That is your complete set of tax rules. No exceptions. You lose a little in flexibility and therefore end up paying a bit more, but the saving in simplicity and paying an accountant is worth it.
Eventually, when enough people have opted in, you can start to chip away at the tax code.
But it's just a pet theory and my exposure to tax is limited to screaming at HMRC every time I have to do any sort of tax return, so meh.
It broke my heart to see Dubrovnik and other places being shelled and bombed a few years later.
https://www.rawlinsons.co.uk/resource/vat-flat-rate-scheme/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46972632