politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Kamala Harris, betting favourite for the Democratic nomination

First

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1087327344866574336

"For the people?" Is there a court case or something?

Isn't one of the Castro brothers missing from that list?

MTimT said:

Isn't one of the Castro brothers missing from that list?

Raúl?

NickPalmer said:

Startling quote from Tusk cited in the Guardian blog (from a forthcoming BBC documentary):

"I asked David Cameron, ‘Why did you decide on this referendum, this – it’s so dangerous, so even stupid, you know,’ and, he told me - and I was really amazed and even shocked - that the only reason was his own party, [He told me] he felt really safe, because he thought at the same time that there’s no risk of a referendum, because, his coalition partner, the Liberals, would block this idea of a referendum. But then, surprisingly, he won and there was no coalition partner. So paradoxically David Cameron became the real victim of his own victory."

About time someone took a stand over Israel competing in European sporting and cultural events, eh, Nick?

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Huzzah for Harris!

Aw thanks.

Oh.

MTimT said:

Isn't one of the Castro brothers missing from that list?

I assume that you will be backing Putin's man in the White House.

But what about Brexit....throws hand grenade and runs away...

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

I think we had this discussion before, but Deal minus backstop isn't going to get the votes from her party. The backstop is only one issue, Tory MPs have lots of other objections.

I think it will. JRM, Boris and many others have said they could back the deal without the backstop. There would only be diehard Remainers left blocking the deal in an attempt to get s referendum (but thus risking no deal) if the leavers fall into line to get Brexit over the line.

Can you name a single Leaver who has said they would oppose the deal even if the backstop were removed?

Guto certainly. And according to him, that's a majority position among those that oppose the deal.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/01/guto-bebb-conservative-mps-opposition-to-this-deal-is-about-far-more-than-just-the-backstop.html

I said name a Leaver; under what definition of the word is Guto a Leaver? He's a hardline Remainer who wants another referendum over any form of Brexit.

FPT: yes sorry, I misread. Subsequent posts from me mention Redwood, Lamont and Baker as all opposing May deal even if backstop is removed. Redwood on his blog estimates she would only get half of MPs onboard if she ditched the backstop.

Anorak said:

Mike: According to Wiki, she's of Tamil Indian descent, not Native American as per the header. 'Kamala' comes from Sanskrit...

Translated into Redneck it means "Dangerous Liberal".

Morris_Dancer said:

Huzzah for Mr. Tweed!

I thank yew... (I should have known I'd be Mr Tweed if you'd meant me )

NickPalmer said:

Startling quote from Tusk cited in the Guardian blog (from a forthcoming BBC documentary):

"I asked David Cameron, ‘Why did you decide on this referendum, this – it’s so dangerous, so even stupid, you know,’ and, he told me - and I was really amazed and even shocked - that the only reason was his own party, [He told me] he felt really safe, because he thought at the same time that there’s no risk of a referendum, because, his coalition partner, the Liberals, would block this idea of a referendum. But then, surprisingly, he won and there was no coalition partner. So paradoxically David Cameron became the real victim of his own victory."

Didn't we already know this?

What's worse is that the whole way Brexit has been handled by May since she became PM has been put the interests of the Tory party first.

NickPalmer said:

Startling quote from Tusk cited in the Guardian blog (from a forthcoming BBC documentary):

"I asked David Cameron, ‘Why did you decide on this referendum, this – it’s so dangerous, so even stupid, you know,’ and, he told me - and I was really amazed and even shocked - that the only reason was his own party, [He told me] he felt really safe, because he thought at the same time that there’s no risk of a referendum, because, his coalition partner, the Liberals, would block this idea of a referendum. But then, surprisingly, he won and there was no coalition partner. So paradoxically David Cameron became the real victim of his own victory."

Ed Is crap has has deeper implications.

If only he had never had that bacon sandwich..

MikeSmithson said:

Anorak said:

Mike: According to Wiki, she's of Tamil Indian descent, not Native American as per the header. 'Kamala' comes from Sanskrit...

Thanks for that. Fixed

Does make the subsequent sentence a bit of a "huh??" now though. Appropriately?

"and is of Tamil and Native Indian descent. Appropriately she chose today, Martin Luther King day, for the big announcement."

NickPalmer said:

Startling quote from Tusk cited in the Guardian blog (from a forthcoming BBC documentary):

"I asked David Cameron, ‘Why did you decide on this referendum, this – it’s so dangerous, so even stupid, you know,’ and, he told me - and I was really amazed and even shocked - that the only reason was his own party, [He told me] he felt really safe, because he thought at the same time that there’s no risk of a referendum, because, his coalition partner, the Liberals, would block this idea of a referendum. But then, surprisingly, he won and there was no coalition partner. So paradoxically David Cameron became the real victim of his own victory."

As I've stated continually for the last 2 years - it's all Osbourne's fault for destroying the Lib Dems in 2015....

Concanvasser said:

Anorak said:

FPT:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

"England’s rebel spirit is rising – and it wants a no-deal Brexit
John Harris

In the face of political stasis, the seductive myth of Britain standing alone against its oppressors is taking hold"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/21/england-rebel-spirit-no-deal-brexit

He also underestimates the appeal of no deal as it would bring the "Brexit yes or no" domination of the news to an end.

God, yes. I'm a political nerd, and I'm abso-fucking-lutely fed up with Brexit. The appeal of a 'simple' solution leading to it all going away is strong.

No deal, of course, would ironically lead to Brexit fall-out dominating the news for the next 2 years as a minimum. May's deal would (I think) be an all-round damp squib, news-wise.

No deal is also the only thing that frightens the EU. We have to mean it and if necessary go through with it. Joe public understands when you negotiate anything you have to be willing to walk away and the other side need to believe you will. We will.

What makes you think that the EU is frightened of No Deal?

williamglenn said:

“Kamala Chameleon”?

Trump's a man without conviction. He's a man who doesn't know how to sell a contradiction. You come and go, you come and go.

Tissue_Price said:

williamglenn said:

“Kamala Chameleon”?

Trump's a man without conviction. He's a man who doesn't know how to sell a contradiction. You come and go, you come and go.

Hopefully he won't go to his grave without conviction.
On multiple counts.

"Wolfgang Münchau

No one knows how it will end, but I believe that the probability of a no-deal Brexit is higher than you think. Much higher."

https://www.ft.com/content/d468b1f6-1b41-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21

dixiedean said:

Hopefully he won't go to his grave without conviction.
On multiple counts.

What's the betting he flees to Moscow the day before he's supposed to hand over power in 2021, and rants at his equally daft followers over twitter for the next 20 years?

MTimT said:

Except contradiction doesn't seem to bother him in the slightest, to the extent he does not even try to sell it ...

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1087352232582860803

(And yes, I got the Culture Club reference...)

Cyclefree said:

Concanvasser said:

Anorak said:

FPT:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

"England’s rebel spirit is rising – and it wants a no-deal Brexit
John Harris

In the face of political stasis, the seductive myth of Britain standing alone against its oppressors is taking hold"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/21/england-rebel-spirit-no-deal-brexit

He also underestimates the appeal of no deal as it would bring the "Brexit yes or no" domination of the news to an end.

God, yes. I'm a political nerd, and I'm abso-fucking-lutely fed up with Brexit. The appeal of a 'simple' solution leading to it all going away is strong.

No deal, of course, would ironically lead to Brexit fall-out dominating the news for the next 2 years as a minimum. May's deal would (I think) be an all-round damp squib, news-wise.

No deal is also the only thing that frightens the EU. We have to mean it and if necessary go through with it. Joe public understands when you negotiate anything you have to be willing to walk away and the other side need to believe you will. We will.

What makes you think that the EU is frightened of No Deal?

I accept it would be more than an unwelcome inconvenience for them, but I think part of the reason the 27 have retained their unity is that they don't believe it would be catastrophic. Maybe the Polish noises today are a sign of them blinking, but I still think a collective Gallic shrug, folded arms and people muttering "indivisible four freedoms" is the more likely response.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jamescrisp6/status/1087351735813844992?s=21

That's so hubristic and arrogant of Tusk and shows precisely why we are leaving.

The idea that trying to resolve why your own voters are unhappy with Europe is "stupid" is so incredibly undemocratic.

Cyclefree said:

NickPalmer said:

Startling quote from Tusk cited in the Guardian blog (from a forthcoming BBC documentary):

"I asked David Cameron, ‘Why did you decide on this referendum, this – it’s so dangerous, so even stupid, you know,’ and, he told me - and I was really amazed and even shocked - that the only reason was his own party, [He told me] he felt really safe, because he thought at the same time that there’s no risk of a referendum, because, his coalition partner, the Liberals, would block this idea of a referendum. But then, surprisingly, he won and there was no coalition partner. So paradoxically David Cameron became the real victim of his own victory."

Didn't we already know this?

What's worse is that the whole way Brexit has been handled by May since she became PM has been put the interests of the Tory party first.

All 17.4 million Tory voters?

Cyclefree said:

Concanvasser said:

Anorak said:

FPT:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

"England’s rebel spirit is rising – and it wants a no-deal Brexit
John Harris

In the face of political stasis, the seductive myth of Britain standing alone against its oppressors is taking hold"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/21/england-rebel-spirit-no-deal-brexit

He also underestimates the appeal of no deal as it would bring the "Brexit yes or no" domination of the news to an end.

God, yes. I'm a political nerd, and I'm abso-fucking-lutely fed up with Brexit. The appeal of a 'simple' solution leading to it all going away is strong.

No deal, of course, would ironically lead to Brexit fall-out dominating the news for the next 2 years as a minimum. May's deal would (I think) be an all-round damp squib, news-wise.

No deal is also the only thing that frightens the EU. We have to mean it and if necessary go through with it. Joe public understands when you negotiate anything you have to be willing to walk away and the other side need to believe you will. We will.

What makes you think that the EU is frightened of No Deal?

The colour rapidly draining from Leo's face for starters. The Poles who broke ranks today to demand softening of back stop. Others will follow as it sinks it iis really happening The disruption that will follow no deal is not going to be containable to the UK. They understand this and we need to use it. T

Tissue_Price said:

Anorak said:

TGOHF said:

If she authorises air strikes she may be known as Bomber Harris...

Anything hilarious she says would be Rofl Harris.

If she visits Mansfield she'll be John Harris.

Anything affectedly sentimental and she'll be Harris Twee.

Cyclefree said:

williamglenn said:

“Kamala Chameleon”?

Very good...

Though I suggested it a week ago, I've since noted that her name is pronounced somewhere between Comma-la and Korma-la, so it doesn't quite work.

Anorak said:

TGOHF said:

All still kicking off in Londonderry

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/derry-on-alert-second-bomb-scare-as-police-clear-homes-37732335.html

"A second security alert is underway in Londonderry after a Royal Mail van was hijacked at gunpoint and abandoned.

Police are currently at the scene of a security alert in the Circular Road area of Londonderry, while another security alert is taking place less than a mile away on Southway."

All worth it to reinstate properly bendy bananas.

You really think this is Brexit related?

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

TGOHF said:

All still kicking off in Londonderry

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/derry-on-alert-second-bomb-scare-as-police-clear-homes-37732335.html

"A second security alert is underway in Londonderry after a Royal Mail van was hijacked at gunpoint and abandoned.

Police are currently at the scene of a security alert in the Circular Road area of Londonderry, while another security alert is taking place less than a mile away on Southway."

All worth it to reinstate properly bendy bananas.

You really think this is Brexit related?

No, after over a decade of relative calm, the resurgence of violence and bombs in N. Ireland at the time of intense political discord between the UK and Ireland, and the potential re-introduction of the border, is a complete coincidence.

Non-sarcastic response: I do.

She'll at least know her Harris from her elbow.
Which will be an improvement.

Anorak said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

TGOHF said:

If she authorises air strikes she may be known as Bomber Harris...

Anything hilarious she says would be Rofl Harris.

If she's tidier than Trump, she could be Anita Harris.....

If she went in the sea and put a seagull on her head, she'd be the Isle of Harris.

Can she find a running mate called Lewis?

And if she had a beard and played the wobble board ... well then she would have precious little chance against Trump. He would make hay with that.

NickPalmer said:

Startling quote from Tusk cited in the Guardian blog (from a forthcoming BBC documentary):

"I asked David Cameron, ‘Why did you decide on this referendum, this – it’s so dangerous, so even stupid, you know,’ and, he told me - and I was really amazed and even shocked - that the only reason was his own party, [He told me] he felt really safe, because he thought at the same time that there’s no risk of a referendum, because, his coalition partner, the Liberals, would block this idea of a referendum. But then, surprisingly, he won and there was no coalition partner. So paradoxically David Cameron became the real victim of his own victory."

Nothing in there is news.

Anorak said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

TGOHF said:

All still kicking off in Londonderry

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/derry-on-alert-second-bomb-scare-as-police-clear-homes-37732335.html

"A second security alert is underway in Londonderry after a Royal Mail van was hijacked at gunpoint and abandoned.

Police are currently at the scene of a security alert in the Circular Road area of Londonderry, while another security alert is taking place less than a mile away on Southway."

All worth it to reinstate properly bendy bananas.

You really think this is Brexit related?

No, after over a decade of relative calm, the resurgence of violence and bombs in N. Ireland at the time of intense political discord between the UK and Ireland, and the potential re-introduction of the border, is a complete coincidence.

Non-sarcastic response: I do.

Because hijacking a Royal Mail van is all about a hard border in Ireland..... non-sarcastic eye-roll.

Much more likely to be about where the border between one drugs gang and another is.

Andrew said:

dixiedean said:

Hopefully he won't go to his grave without conviction.
On multiple counts.

What's the betting he flees to Moscow the day before he's supposed to hand over power in 2021, and rants at his equally daft followers over twitter for the next 20 years?

The Moscow connection can work the other way. Suppose Putin tires of Trump and decides to cut him loose. The KGB can release any compromising material they have.

Or they can just make it up.

Result: Washington spends the next decade in meltdown.

kinabalu said:

Anorak said:

If she went in the sea and put a seagull on her head, she'd be the Isle of Harris.

And if she had a beard and played the wobble board ... well then she would have precious little chance against Trump. He would make hay with that.

If she offered her views on POTUS 38, she’d be Harris on Ford.

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

TGOHF said:

All still kicking off in Londonderry

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/derry-on-alert-second-bomb-scare-as-police-clear-homes-37732335.html

"A second security alert is underway in Londonderry after a Royal Mail van was hijacked at gunpoint and abandoned.

Police are currently at the scene of a security alert in the Circular Road area of Londonderry, while another security alert is taking place less than a mile away on Southway."

All worth it to reinstate properly bendy bananas.

You really think this is Brexit related?

No, after over a decade of relative calm, the resurgence of violence and bombs in N. Ireland at the time of intense political discord between the UK and Ireland, and the potential re-introduction of the border, is a complete coincidence.

Non-sarcastic response: I do.

Because hijacking a Royal Mail van is all about a hard border in Ireland..... non-sarcastic eye-roll.

Much more likely to be about where the border between one drugs gang and another is.

48 hours after a bomb goes off outside a courthouse, and is linked to dissident republicans.

It might be a coincidence, but flat out denial that's it's a possibility because you support Brexit is truly worth of an eye-roll.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Andrew said:

dixiedean said:

Hopefully he won't go to his grave without conviction.
On multiple counts.

What's the betting he flees to Moscow the day before he's supposed to hand over power in 2021, and rants at his equally daft followers over twitter for the next 20 years?

The Moscow connection can work the other way. Suppose Putin tires of Trump and decides to cut him loose. The KGB can release any compromising material they have.

Or they can just make it up.

Result: Washington spends the next decade in meltdown.

(imagines film crew with actor in a bouffant ginger wig "taking a shower" in a Moscow hotel room as we speak)

Anorak said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

TGOHF said:

All still kicking off in Londonderry

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/derry-on-alert-second-bomb-scare-as-police-clear-homes-37732335.html

"A second security alert is underway in Londonderry after a Royal Mail van was hijacked at gunpoint and abandoned.

Police are currently at the scene of a security alert in the Circular Road area of Londonderry, while another security alert is taking place less than a mile away on Southway."

All worth it to reinstate properly bendy bananas.

You really think this is Brexit related?

No, after over a decade of relative calm, the resurgence of violence and bombs in N. Ireland at the time of intense political discord between the UK and Ireland, and the potential re-introduction of the border, is a complete coincidence.

Non-sarcastic response: I do.

Because hijacking a Royal Mail van is all about a hard border in Ireland..... non-sarcastic eye-roll.

Much more likely to be about where the border between one drugs gang and another is.

48 hours after a bomb goes off outside a courthouse, and is linked to dissident republicans.

It might be a coincidence, but flat out denial that's it's a possibility because you support Brexit is truly worth of an eye-roll.

The problem remainers have is that they can't be seen to be making the link between the two. It would give the impression that they were supporting terrorism.

Anorak said:

I think you've had a quote fail, there, old bean.

Thanks. Got stuck in there and cleaned it up.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Andrew said:

dixiedean said:

Hopefully he won't go to his grave without conviction.
On multiple counts.

What's the betting he flees to Moscow the day before he's supposed to hand over power in 2021, and rants at his equally daft followers over twitter for the next 20 years?

The Moscow connection can work the other way. Suppose Putin tires of Trump and decides to cut him loose. The KGB can release any compromising material they have.

Or they can just make it up.

Result: Washington spends the next decade in meltdown.

Indeed. If Moscow wants to cause unrest, and endanger or at least discredit the US political system, the best way would be to undermine Trump, leading to a close, disputed election defeat.
Assuming he's not a fully-fledged asset, of course.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1087366980368322561

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087370607484915712

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

MarqueeMark said:

Anorak said:

TGOHF said:

All still kicking off in Londonderry

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/derry-on-alert-second-bomb-scare-as-police-clear-homes-37732335.html

"A second security alert is underway in Londonderry after a Royal Mail van was hijacked at gunpoint and abandoned.

Police are currently at the scene of a security alert in the Circular Road area of Londonderry, while another security alert is taking place less than a mile away on Southway."

All worth it to reinstate properly bendy bananas.

You really think this is Brexit related?

No, after over a decade of relative calm, the resurgence of violence and bombs in N. Ireland at the time of intense political discord between the UK and Ireland, and the potential re-introduction of the border, is a complete coincidence.

Non-sarcastic response: I do.

Because hijacking a Royal Mail van is all about a hard border in Ireland..... non-sarcastic eye-roll.

Much more likely to be about where the border between one drugs gang and another is.

48 hours after a bomb goes off outside a courthouse, and is linked to dissident republicans.

It might be a coincidence, but flat out denial that's it's a possibility because you support Brexit is truly worth of an eye-roll.

You think dissident republicans arrived with Brexit?

Eye-roll.....

There are no tanks in Baghdad.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1087366980368322561

Er, so Poland has no say in the "European position".....

This isn't going to end well.

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

NickPalmer said:

Startling quote from Tusk cited in the Guardian blog (from a forthcoming BBC documentary):

"I asked David Cameron, ‘Why did you decide on this referendum, this – it’s so dangerous, so even stupid, you know,’ and, he told me - and I was really amazed and even shocked - that the only reason was his own party, [He told me] he felt really safe, because he thought at the same time that there’s no risk of a referendum, because, his coalition partner, the Liberals, would block this idea of a referendum. But then, surprisingly, he won and there was no coalition partner. So paradoxically David Cameron became the real victim of his own victory."

Didn't we already know this?

What's worse is that the whole way Brexit has been handled by May since she became PM has been put the interests of the Tory party first.

All 17.4 million Tory voters?

She has not given the impression of recognising that the victory was 52:48 not 70:30 or 90:10. If circa 600,000 voters had voted Remain the victory would have been for Remain. That should have led to a serious attempt to find a solution that tried to overcome divisions not cement them.

Further her concern has been to appease the ERG and DUP, both of whom are unappeasable, pocket any concessions made to them and demand more. And now that we're facing a No Deal exit, the ERG and other Leavers are, contrary to what they said at the time, saying that No Deal is what the country voted for and it will all be fine. They have turned out to be liars.

As has May. Her idea of reaching out to others is to tell them that they have to agree with her.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087370607484915712

But not the one thing everyone else is asking for - ruling out No Deal.

SandyRentool said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087370607484915712

But not the one thing everyone else is asking for - ruling out No Deal.

She will not rule it out - it is the one thing to concentrate minds in the EU