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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump is clearing the road to his own impeachment

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  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Xenon said:

    If you think democracy results in people voting for unrealistic and acceptable measures then you can't be a big fan of it.
    Firstly - democracy isn't flawless, despite your apparent insistence that if enough people vote for something it has to be true, realistic, and achievable (If the passengers on board a crashing plane all vote for the crash to be soft, pleasant, and easily survivable, they're likely to be overridden by the ground's casting vote. Believe it or not). The lack of democracy is, however, far, far more flawed.

    Can you truly not see that position?
    Or are you simply being deliberately disingenuous and trolling to try to defend a ridiculous position?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,474
    kle4 said:

    Foolish error or foolish deliberately misleading, either or. Certainly not his finest hour. And it deserves being remembered even if one supports his general position on the deal.
    If it was deliberately misleading that would be even more foolish.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    edited January 2019
    Xenon said:

    First the first time I'm starting to think that she might be running down the clock so we leave without a deal.
    She clearly does not want no deal because she would not have worked so hard on her own deal if that was so. But I suppose if she has come around to the view that no deal is the best approach but recognises that will cost her Cabinet Ministers and plenty of support, she would seek to make it not her fault.

    Grieve's draft amendment appears to be limited to "a motion in connection with the UK's withdrawal from the EU", and it is also date limited to the date of the debate.

    It seems very contrived to me but I am confident that Grieve understands these things a hell of a lot better than I do.
    And the next big issue someone decides to do the same thing for? Let's change procedure depending on how much we care about the issue. He doesn't need to do this to get what he wants.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    Nigelb said:

    I’m this case, though, we are discussing journalists with an obligation to avoid bias.
    Fastidiousness towards negative comments about someone in Abbott’s position is surely essential ?
    Yes it is, but one could be extremely fastidious about it and still 'fling' more negative comments if that has indeed been earned.
  • Grieve's draft amendment appears to be limited to "a motion in connection with the UK's withdrawal from the EU", and it is also date limited to the date of the debate.

    It seems very contrived to me but I am confident that Grieve understands these things a hell of a lot better than I do.
    And me
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Remember when some of us hoped/speculated that since TM can't be forced out for 12 months after the failed Tory VoNC she would become much bolder on Brexit compromises?

    It's the hope that kills you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,474
    edited January 2019

    Grieve's draft amendment appears to be limited to "a motion in connection with the UK's withdrawal from the EU", and it is also date limited to the date of the debate.

    It seems very contrived to me but I am confident that Grieve understands these things a hell of a lot better than I do.
    It would still set a precedent.
    It’s not necessarily a bad one - after all, any resulting motion has to be supported by a parliamentary majority to have any effect -but it is a pretty radical innovation.

    As an aside, it’s not unusual for legislatures to be able to initiate legislation separately from the executive. It happens all the time in the US.

    Under our system, it would only be effective when the government has a small or non existent majority - or on an issue which cut straight across party lines.

    In this case, both conditions apply.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    kle4 said:

    She clearly does not want no deal because she would not have worked so hard on her own deal if that was so. But I suppose if she has come around to the view that no deal is the best approach but recognises that will cost her Cabinet Ministers and plenty of support, she would seek to make it not her fault. And the next big issue someone decides to do the same thing for? Let's change procedure depending on how much we care about the issue. He doesn't need to do this to get what he wants.
    Well, I think it's no bad thing if there's a mechanism for MPs to take control of business if enough of them feel strongly about it. After all they will still need to win a HoC majority to pass anything.

  • International funds are not going to invest in U.K. equities until Brexit is resolved. All their money has been pulled out and they have zero allocations to the U.K.
    Evidence?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    Nigelb said:

    It would still set a precedent.
    It’s not necessarily a bad one - after all, any resulting motion has to be supported by a parliamentary majority to have any effect -but it is a pretty radical innovation.

    As an aside, it’s not unusual for legislatures to be able to initiate legislation separately from the executive. It happens all the time in the US.

    Under our system, it would only be effective when the government has a small or non existent majority - or on an issue which cut straight across party lines.

    And yet by its very nature apparently he is only thinking about this one issue, and not any wider consequences or precedents, which suggests even if the broader principle is not terrible, he is not planning for it and could open up a huge can of worms. It's not that he's too clever for his own good, he's just too laser focused on his obsession.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Having Brussels with any role in setting our tax rates will push good numbers of relucatant 2016 Remainers into less relucatant 2019 Leavers (if we were to have another vote). Much as Remainers might relish pointing out that Leave voters have died off, in the meantime the EU is pursuing an agenda that is even more distateful to many than was apparent in 2016.
    It’s a key move on the way to a United States of Europe. It makes no deal more attractive too - the ability to cut taxes after we leave has to be attractive to most sane businesses and individuals.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    edited January 2019

    Well, I think it's no bad thing if there's a mechanism for MPs to take control of business if enough of them feel strongly about it. After all they will still need to win a HoC majority to pass anything.
    My concern is the same as with badly drafted legislation, or when people proposed immediate abolition of the Lords when it does something they don't like. Rushed through plans based on short term problems are likely to be problematic. Because his only consideration is the now, and stopping Brexit, any wider positive effect is incidental, and he may not have thought about any wider problems it might cause.

    Not to get all Jeremy Corbyn about it, but sometimes processes do matter, not just outcomes. Processes can and should be changed, but Grieve's explicitly come about as arcane tricks of procedure and in pursuit of short term advantage on a single issue - not a recipe for a robust change or precedent I would guess.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Firstly - democracy isn't flawless, despite your apparent insistence that if enough people vote for something it has to be true, realistic, and achievable (If the passengers on board a crashing plane all vote for the crash to be soft, pleasant, and easily survivable, they're likely to be overridden by the ground's casting vote. Believe it or not). The lack of democracy is, however, far, far more flawed.

    Can you truly not see that position?
    Or are you simply being deliberately disingenuous and trolling to try to defend a ridiculous position?
    Don't you understand that the people who favour no deal see it as being realistic and achievable?

    It's like screaming about being in a plane that is going to crash when in fact the majority can see you're actually in a stationary Robin Reliant in Asda car park.

    You seem to want to be the arbiter of what is or isn't acceptable and to deny voters who think otherwise a view on it. There seems to be a lot of this thinking about regarding the EU.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,652
    edited January 2019

    International funds are not going to invest in U.K. equities until Brexit is resolved. All their money has been pulled out and they have zero allocations to the U.K.

    Doubt it's zero, but I'm sure that plenty of money has been pulled out pending resolution.

    My point is that if sterling crashes it has the effect of making UK assets (e.g. shares, bonds, prime property) dirt cheap to foreign investors, and that in and of itself pushes prices up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,079
    Xenon said:

    Don't you understand that the people who favour no deal see it as being realistic and achievable?

    It's like screaming about being in a plane that is going to crash when in fact the majority can see you're actually in a stationary Robin Reliant in Asda car park.

    You seem to want to be the arbiter of what is or isn't acceptable and to deny voters who think otherwise a view on it. There seems to be a lot of this thinking about regarding the EU.
    The people who 'favour' no deal are mostly either wealthy and privileged or far away enough to be safe whatever the outcome, or believe they have little to lose and don't appreciate the potential far reaching long term consequences.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Evidence?
    I advise one and that’s what they tell me is the feedback from their fundraising.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,474
    kle4 said:

    And yet by its very nature apparently he is only thinking about this one issue, and not any wider consequences or precedents, which suggests even if the broader principle is not terrible, he is not planning for it and could open up a huge can of worms. It's not that he's too clever for his own good, he's just too laser focused on his obsession.
    It’s not as though there’s time for a parliamentary enquiry into procedure.
    I don’t personally have a problem with his manoeuvre, for the reasons I’ve given.
  • kle4 said:

    What a peculiar attitude. Essentially give someone a pass because they also face unearned crap? We should all welcome getting such crap on that basis, because then how dare people criticise us.

    It is very easy to criticise people without even getting close to racist and sexist about it. That's all people have to do. Not stop with the criticism because you don't want to be in the same company of racists and sexists.

    That's as silly as people liking something purely on the basis it upsets those they dislike.
    Who said she had a pass?

    I applaud your confidence in your judgement of what's accurate. Perhaps some of us are a little more hesitant deciding what is and isn't earned shit, particularly when a lot of it is indubitably unearned.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    Who said she had a pass?

    I applaud your confidence in your judgement of what's accurate. Perhaps some of us are a little more hesitant deciding what is and isn't earned shit, particularly when a lot of it is indubitably unearned.
    My assumption you meant she should have a pass was based on you saying that one should be fastidious about flinging it 'earned or not', which I took to mean that you would wish to hesitate to fling it even when it was earned. If that was not your intent I apologise, but I could not see how else to take it. If someone is confident an attack is accurate I see no reason they should not fling it just because the target faces unearned attacks. Of course, that attacker might be wrong, and should be careful, we all should.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266

    It’s a key move on the way to a United States of Europe. It makes no deal more attractive too - the ability to cut taxes after we leave has to be attractive to most sane businesses and individuals.
    Cutting taxes always sounds attractive but the consequences - cutting public services and/or increasing the deficit - not so much.

    Also worth noting that your neoliberal 'nirvana' could be pursued while we remain in the EU, leaving makes no difference.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    Nigelb said:

    It’s not as though there’s time for a parliamentary enquiry into procedure.
    I don’t personally have a problem with his manoeuvre, for the reasons I’ve given.
    And I do because I don't think it is necessary to do what he wants, but it avoids him doing what his logic suggests he should do if he thinks no deal is on the table.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    IanB2 said:

    The people who 'favour' no deal are mostly either wealthy and privileged or far away enough to be safe whatever the outcome, or believe they have little to lose and don't appreciate the potential far reaching long term consequences.
    Now you're just making up stuff.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,448

    Cutting taxes always sounds attractive but the consequences - cutting public services and/or increasing the deficit - not so much.

    Also worth noting that your neoliberal 'nirvana' could be pursued while we remain in the EU, leaving makes no difference.
    It certainly ALWAYS sounds attractive to those who have decisions on inward investment.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,652
    edited January 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Except that since the point when sterling turned south, the London property market has been in decline.

    Sure.

    But Prime London - the sector where overseas buyers are dominant - would have declined more were it not for the fall in the currency.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,079
    kinabalu said:

    Sure.

    But Prime London - the sector where overseas buyers are dominant - would have declined more were it not for the fall in the currency.
    Because people don't sell when their asset's value is heading south?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,079
    This thread is now OLD
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,652
    edited January 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Surely it is because she is dramatically under-equipped for the senior position she now holds?

    Some of it is. But to explain the sheer extent and content of the abuse she receives one has to look beyond that and to recognize something that is distinctly uncomfortable to admit.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kjohnw said:

    A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
    There is a lot of wishful thinking there - particularly the idea that Corbyn's 2017 support was largely a protest vote. Polls in the last week or so of the campaign pointed to the serious possibility of a Hung Parliament - in the same way that they do now! Corbyn outperformed by raising issues to which people could directly relate - rather than the highly technical issue of Brexit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,453
    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,079
    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Cutting taxes always sounds attractive but the consequences - cutting public services and/or increasing the deficit - not so much.

    Also worth noting that your neoliberal 'nirvana' could be pursued while we remain in the EU, leaving makes no difference.
    Cutting tax rates can actually increase tax take as we saw with cuts to both corporation tax and the 50% income tax band. It simply taxes a belief in the Laffer curve and good judgement - sadly lacking in most of our politicians.

    I am not a great believer in unversal benefits that aren’t means tested and most public spending is notoriously inefficient - U.K. MoD and the NHS benefits prime examples. In most cases, I’d rather see serious reform of public services rather than jump into cuts with the exception of white elephants like HS2 and ineffective spending like most of our overseas aid.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,101
    From a not-exactly-well-off part of Newcastle.

    https://twitter.com/catmckinnell/status/1086630455825362944?s=21
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    IanB2 said:


    The people who 'favour' no deal are mostly either wealthy and privileged or far away enough to be safe whatever the outcome, or believe they have little to lose and don't appreciate the potential far reaching long term consequences.

    The definition of wealthy, privileged and far away...

    Goldman Sachs
    Morgan Stanley
    Bilderberg Group
    Billionaire financiers

    All fighting hard to overturn Brexit.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Jonathan said:

    We have to look at it from her point of view. If you were her would you rather win your deal (the best solution in the national interest as she sees it) via a people’s vote or via a majority won at a General Election that clears out the nutters and frees her from the DUP.
    Most polls are suggesting the Tories would lose seats!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Xenon said:

    Don't you understand that the people who favour no deal see it as being realistic and achievable?

    It's like screaming about being in a plane that is going to crash when in fact the majority can see you're actually in a stationary Robin Reliant in Asda car park.

    You seem to want to be the arbiter of what is or isn't acceptable and to deny voters who think otherwise a view on it. There seems to be a lot of this thinking about regarding the EU.
    No.
    Look at what I bolded.
    The position that you've set out is that if No Deal wins, it must be realistic. That what those supporting "see" to be true, must be true. Or, to put it another way, that by "see" you mean "know with certainty".
    (And by extension, those on the other side must be seeing incorrectly as they are de facto wrong).
    Therefore whichever side is more popular must be seeing most accurately (and the less popular side must be deluded).
    My point is that popularity does not imply realism.
    Then you wander off into a bizarre assertion that I want to be arbiter of truth. I certainly do not: I don't know what No Deal will result in, but I am aware that it's a complex and interrelated system of systems that's being violently disrupted, and that rarely leads to sunny and straightforward outcomes.
    My certainty is that no-one really knows. Not me, and despite your position, not you either, I'm afraid.

    Regardless of your apparent certainty that all must be fine.

    Your original position was that anything that is popular must be realistic and correct.
    It's a view, I guess, but those disagreeing with it aren't automatically setting themselves up as omniscient beings.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited January 2019

    So why did our lot let him run rings around us and succeed in his aim? I thought your source 'high up in the Leave campaign' was confident that our guys were the dog's.
    Because there were (and still are) enough ultra-remainers working incredibly hard to make sure the PM has her hands tied behind her back.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,652
    IanB2 said:

    Because people don't sell when their asset's value is heading south?

    No, not that. They often do.

    The key point here is that from the viewpoint of a foreign currency investor, a sterling asset becomes cheaper - to them - if sterling falls.

    That in and of itself makes the asset more attractive and creates upwards price pressure.

    It does not mean the price goes up in absolute terms, that depends on the net impact of all the many factors that are relevant, but the fall in the currency per se is an upwards influence.

    If the other factors are net negative - bear market - the impact of the sterling fall will be to mitigate this - i.e. prices will still decrease but not by as much as if the currency had not fallen.

    A good example being London prime property.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,632

    If the EU dictate the Referendum question, then I think the Referendum will only have one answer.
    They won't dictate it. They will simply refuse an extension for a referendum which does not give them something they won't get just by waiting until March 29th.

    It's brutal power politics. We should not be surprised. It is exactly how Britain behaved when it had the upper hand. Now it doesn't. We don't like it. And instead of coming to terms with the new reality we're thrashing around moaning that the world isn't fair, isn't like it should be. What are we: four? Time for Britain to grow up.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,632

    I think I may just have to disagree with you which is not very often by the way
    Fair enough. Life would be dull if we agreed all the time.

    Condolences to you over your recent losses. It cannot be easy, especially during this gloomy time of the year.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Cyclefree said:


    They won't dictate it. They will simply refuse an extension for a referendum which does not give them something they won't get just by waiting until March 29th.

    It's brutal power politics. We should not be surprised. It is exactly how Britain behaved when it had the upper hand. Now it doesn't. We don't like it. And instead of coming to terms with the new reality we're thrashing around moaning that the world isn't fair, isn't like it should be. What are we: four? Time for Britain to grow up.

    The EU is perfectly entitled to refuse an extension on whatever basis it sees fit.

    As you say, 'brutal power politics'.

    And I would have to question the loyalty of any MP who supported another country/organisation who was using your form of 'brutality' against the UK.

  • Cyclefree said:

    Fair enough. Life would be dull if we agreed all the time.

    Condolences to you over your recent losses. It cannot be easy, especially during this gloomy time of the year.
    You are kind and it is painful to lose someone who you have known for over 50 years, been in business as partners for 37 of those years, and never once had an argument or fall out.

    Sadly, one of our former employees died the week before, and two long standing friends in the last two months

    Still we are grateful we keep plodding on, with the help of a few pills, and have all four of our grandchildren nearby who pop in all the time.
This discussion has been closed.