politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Tory Brexit crisis continues Corbyn’s “Best PM” ratings
Comments
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Me too. I still think there is a non-zero possibility that the Corbynites and Erggers get gnu’d by the backdoor.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If it gets a deal done, I would vote for it. As party member and a voter.Anazina said:
Quite.rottenborough said:
If you live by the sword, Jezza... All those years of trooping through the 'nay' lobby with the Tories when Blair was in his pomp are coming back now.Scott_P said:
Actually, a governmental quad of Coops, Liddo, Benners and the Governator wouldn’t be too bad. Compared to what we have now, Shangrila.
Sounds painful!!0 -
Absurd price given leaving on time is 6.6 - 6.8. Lay that, back the 6.6, and you're getting around 33-40/1 on an exit with a Deal on 29th March.Morris_Dancer said:If you think we're heading for no deal, Betfair has 7.6 up on it happening. Unlike the Ladbrokes market, there's no time limit that I can see.
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I've mentioned this before, but on this theme, my grandfather was a Notts miner - and a very punctual man. One day, completely out of character, he missed his bus to work. He caught the next, only to hear the pit siren going as he got off. Chaos all around.malcolmg said:
Rather lucky to be here then Alan!Alanbrooke said:
my maternal grandfather ( Irish and Catholic - you probably lurked in one of his ditches in Fermanagh :-) ) was 15 and in the BEF in 1914. He took part in the retreat from Mons and subsequent fighting in northern France. In November 1914 his unit was attacked by the germans who outflanked the paddies and set up a machine gun. The machine gun killed all his comrades to the left and right of him. He got hit in the neck and eventually stretchered off. His injury was such that he got invalided out of the army. His elder brother died the next year (shot ) and his other brother the year after (fell off duckboards and never seen again ). The german machine gun bullet basically saved his life,TOPPING said:fpt Foxy's story - amazing!!!
There had been an explosion - and the rest of his shift had been killed....0 -
Chanel No.1 - marginally more popular than the best-forgotten Chanel No.2Cyclefree said:
My mother told me years ago that people used to wipe babies' faces with a used (wee only) nappy to keep it free from infection, if nothing else was available. I think she meant pre-War but who knows? I never asked her whether she used that technique on me.felix said:
I believe from watching 'Friends' years ago it's good for jellyfish stings - - a natural anti-septic.Sean_F said:
I'm sure it smells good.Nigelb said:FPT...
And even if true, there's no way there'd be enough of it for the rest of us...TheScreamingEagles said:Why the actual fucking fuck?
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1085903368093077504
There are people who think it healthy to drink their own urine.0 -
Health warning - from the Rules:Morris_Dancer said:If you think we're heading for no deal, Betfair has 7.6 up on it happening. Unlike the Ladbrokes market, there's no time limit that I can see.
Will the UK have left the EU with a No Deal Brexit on 30-03-2019?0 -
Mr. Price, do you mean back the 7.6?
Edited extra bit: ah, reading again it sounds like you're advocating laying the no deal bet and backing the leave on time bet?0 -
It’s only YouGov, though, that have the Tories consistently ahead and currently only by c 6%, I believe.eek said:
I think it is mirrored in the polls - Labour should be sat around 48-52% and they aren't...AmpfieldAndy said:Not sure you can read too much into this other than Corbyn is even more clueless than May. It hasn’t been mirrored in Labour’s standing in the polls to anywhere near the same degree and it didn’t stop Labour depriving May of her majority in the last election.
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And also it's the sort of nudge nudge wink wink politicking with your corporatist business cronies that make people dislike politicians.Sean_F said:
That's not a promise he can make.DecrepitJohnL said:
And Philip Hammond has told business leaders that no deal will be off the table, as demanded by Corbyn. There's your GNU right there.SouthamObserver said:
And, of course, any Labour MP who does not follow instructions will be subjected to the usual hate-filled abuse from the Corbyn Cult. A cynic might conclude that Jeremy is setting some MPs up for deselection.Scott_P said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/17/philip-hammond-faces-cabinet-backlash-telling-business-chiefs/0 -
No, lay the 7.6, but back us leaving on time. Small loss if we leave with No Deal, or don't leave at all; big win if we leave with a deal.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Price, do you mean back the 7.6?
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Too short - even if May were to somehow cobble together HoC majority support for her Deal or Deal+-, there will beed to be a (shortish) delay in the exit date IMOH.Tissue_Price said:
Absurd price given leaving on time is 6.6 - 6.8. Lay that, back the 6.6, and you're getting around 33-40/1 on an exit with a Deal on 29th March.Morris_Dancer said:If you think we're heading for no deal, Betfair has 7.6 up on it happening. Unlike the Ladbrokes market, there's no time limit that I can see.
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Mr. Endillion, ah, cheers. Bit naughty not to put that up front (although I should've checked).0
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Yep - the "UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?" provides far more options for only a little less (odds are 6.6 at the moment)..Endillion said:
Health warning - from the Rules:Morris_Dancer said:If you think we're heading for no deal, Betfair has 7.6 up on it happening. Unlike the Ladbrokes market, there's no time limit that I can see.
Will the UK have left the EU with a No Deal Brexit on 30-03-2019?0 -
But, then, similar political leaders are generated across the West. No Western democracy produces great statesmen any more. The problem has different roots, I think.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I just saw that you linked to it.Cyclefree said:SouthamObserver said:This captures the malign stupidity of our ruling class rather well, I think:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html
Snap! Already posted - and already being criticised by the usual suspects on here!
It's often easier and more comforting to ignore what is staring you directly in the face, but that does not make it go away. Instead, it just means the same things happen again and again.
The English public school is brilliant at what it does - and that's what makes it the most dangerous institution on earth. It turns the unremarkable, often dim, children of the wealthy into adults who are able to hide their innate stupidity behind a well-spoken veneer of self-confidence.
The world's most effective leaders are malevolent.0 -
Thoroughly good stock!Alanbrooke said:
lolTOPPING said:
Such amazing stories. Who would be a predestinationist??Alanbrooke said:
my maternal grandfather ( Irish and Catholic - you probably lurked in one of his ditches in Fermanagh :-) ) was 15 and in the BEF in 1914. He took part in the retreat from Mons and subsequent fighting in northern France. In November 1914 his unit was attacked by the germans who outflanked the paddies and set up a machine gun. The machine gun killed all his comrades to the left and right of him. He got hit in the neck and eventually stretchered off. His injury was such that he got invalided out of the army. His elder brother died the next year (shot ) and his other brother the year after (fell off duckboards and never seen again ). The german machine gun bullet basically saved his life,TOPPING said:fpt Foxy's story - amazing!!!
oddly enough my grandfather ! Once out of the army he returned home built a house in county Monaghan met a girl ( prod ) and married her, He became an anglicen then had a bust up with the minister and went Presbyterian.
And all of this in the middle of the war of independence and the civil war in the border counties. Nutjob ! It must be where I get it from:-)0 -
I'm not saying that Labour aren't ahead - they may well be. The issue is that they should be way, way ahead and the Tories should be looking at losing every seat without a 5000+ majority...AmpfieldAndy said:
It’s only YouGov, though, that have the Tories consistently ahead and currently only by c 6%, I believe.eek said:
I think it is mirrored in the polls - Labour should be sat around 48-52% and they aren't...AmpfieldAndy said:Not sure you can read too much into this other than Corbyn is even more clueless than May. It hasn’t been mirrored in Labour’s standing in the polls to anywhere near the same degree and it didn’t stop Labour depriving May of her majority in the last election.
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He’s got a tough job. Dealing with workout bankers, which I imagine he’s doing, is very hard work.Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:
Don't see how that works with a coffee shop. Was Patisserie Valerie setting up fake transactions in icing with Patisserie Ronald (owned by Valerie)? Dare say we'll find out eventually.TheScreamingEagles said:
Created a load of fake sales/transactions via other companies (that they controlled but didn't disclose) that boosted the value of Enron.Cyclefree said:
Remind me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same way Enron pulled off this trick?Cyclefree said:
How the hell did thousands of fake ledger entries get made without anyone noticing? I'd love to know the full story here.eek said:
Not at all - it's got a pile of locations that make zero sense - my favourite one is at the backend of a shopping centre in Preston where no-one ever goes I only walked past it if the other carparks were full.Cyclefree said:Well, this is not a surprise.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/fraud-threat-to-patisserie-valerie-future-ffm63tq8m0 -
I can think of one pretty ineffective, malevolent world leader.Sean_F said:
But, then, similar political leaders are generated across the West. No Western democracy produces great statesmen any more. The problem has different roots, I think.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I just saw that you linked to it.Cyclefree said:SouthamObserver said:This captures the malign stupidity of our ruling class rather well, I think:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html
Snap! Already posted - and already being criticised by the usual suspects on here!
It's often easier and more comforting to ignore what is staring you directly in the face, but that does not make it go away. Instead, it just means the same things happen again and again.
The English public school is brilliant at what it does - and that's what makes it the most dangerous institution on earth. It turns the unremarkable, often dim, children of the wealthy into adults who are able to hide their innate stupidity behind a well-spoken veneer of self-confidence.
The world's most effective leaders are malevolent.0 -
On the previous thread, Mike is right. Additionally the Leave campaign mk.II writes itself - "£39 billion reasons to Leave" on the side of a bus. The remain campaign would just be project fear redux, and it didn't work last time.0
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Mr. Price, hmm. That's quite tempting, although my Betfair account, despite the minor recent win, is damned anaemic.0
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+1 How many leading Leavers railing at the 'metropolitan elite' are from state Comps, eh?SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I just saw that you linked to it.Cyclefree said:SouthamObserver said:This captures the malign stupidity of our ruling class rather well, I think:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html
Snap! Already posted - and already being criticised by the usual suspects on here!
It's often easier and more comforting to ignore what is staring you directly in the face, but that does not make it go away. Instead, it just means the same things happen again and again.
The English public school is brilliant at what it does - and that's what makes it the most dangerous institution on earth. It turns the unremarkable, often dim, children of the wealthy into adults who are able to hide their innate stupidity behind a well-spoken veneer of self-confidence.0 -
Bring it on then if you're that confidentMaxPB said:On the previous thread, Mike is right. Additionally the Leave campaign mk.II writes itself - "£39 billion reasons to Leave" on the side of a bus. The remain campaign would just be project fear redux, and it didn't work last time.
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FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."0 -
From the point of view of more than one section of the electorate, a radical realignment like this (Tories dump their Right, Labour dump their Left) would be very welcome. Pro-EU types would end up getting something like an Andrex Soft Brexit, or a referendum choice between that and just staying in; everybody other than Corbyn's fan club would be thrilled to see the ascendancy of his faction checked.Anazina said:
Quite.rottenborough said:
If you live by the sword, Jezza... All those years of trooping through the 'nay' lobby with the Tories when Blair was in his pomp are coming back now.Scott_P said:
Actually, a governmental quad of Coops, Liddo, Benners and the Governator wouldn’t be too bad. Compared to what we have now, Shangrila.
Ideally this would be followed by electoral reform: I think it's getting to the point where we need to make sure that radical voices are properly represented in Parliament, but not given the chance to take over the whole show unless public support for them becomes overwhelming. Every electoral system has its advantages and drawbacks, and I'm well aware of the deficiencies of PR, but an adversarial and majoritarian system is, perhaps, not the best means to reflect the diversity of views in a society, or to encourage consensus building over entrenched division.
Chances of it happening, of course, are somewhere between remote and non-existent.0 -
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Detentions looming!Scott_P said:0 -
Great post.Black_Rook said:
From the point of view of more than one section of the electorate, a radical realignment like this (Tories dump their Right, Labour dump their Left) would be very welcome. Pro-EU types would end up getting something like an Andrex Soft Brexit, or a referendum choice between that and just staying in; everybody other than Corbyn's fan club would be thrilled to see the ascendancy of his faction checked.Anazina said:
Quite.rottenborough said:
If you live by the sword, Jezza... All those years of trooping through the 'nay' lobby with the Tories when Blair was in his pomp are coming back now.Scott_P said:
Actually, a governmental quad of Coops, Liddo, Benners and the Governator wouldn’t be too bad. Compared to what we have now, Shangrila.
Ideally this would be followed by electoral reform: I think it's getting to the point where we need to make sure that radical voices are properly represented in Parliament, but not given the chance to take over the whole show unless public support for them becomes overwhelming. Every electoral system has its advantages and drawbacks, and I'm well aware of the deficiencies of PR, but an adversarial and majoritarian system is, perhaps, not the best means to reflect the diversity of views in a society, or to encourage consensus building over entrenched division.
Chances of it happening, of course, are somewhere between remote and non-existent.0 -
Bit harsh on Roger....SouthamObserver said:
The English public school is brilliant at what it does - and that's what makes it the most dangerous institution on earth. It turns the unremarkable, often dim, children of the wealthy into adults who are able to hide their innate stupidity behind a well-spoken veneer of self-confidence.0 -
Mr. Max, it's possible both sides might have learnt something.
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We can but dream.Black_Rook said:
From the point of view of more than one section of the electorate, a radical realignment like this (Tories dump their Right, Labour dump their Left) would be very welcome. Pro-EU types would end up getting something like an Andrex Soft Brexit, or a referendum choice between that and just staying in; everybody other than Corbyn's fan club would be thrilled to see the ascendancy of his faction checked.Anazina said:
Quite.rottenborough said:
If you live by the sword, Jezza... All those years of trooping through the 'nay' lobby with the Tories when Blair was in his pomp are coming back now.Scott_P said:
Actually, a governmental quad of Coops, Liddo, Benners and the Governator wouldn’t be too bad. Compared to what we have now, Shangrila.
Ideally this would be followed by electoral reform: I think it's getting to the point where we need to make sure that radical voices are properly represented in Parliament, but not given the chance to take over the whole show unless public support for them becomes overwhelming. Every electoral system has its advantages and drawbacks, and I'm well aware of the deficiencies of PR, but an adversarial and majoritarian system is, perhaps, not the best means to reflect the diversity of views in a society, or to encourage consensus building over entrenched division.
Chances of it happening, of course, are somewhere between remote and non-existent.0 -
0
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In respect of what, given he retired in 2007?Beverley_C said:FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."0 -
I thought it was a very kind article. I would say much worse!Cyclefree said:SouthamObserver said:This captures the malign stupidity of our ruling class rather well, I think:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html
Snap! Already posted - and already being criticised by the usual suspects on here!0 -
I think his quote covers the current deadlocked Brexit situation quite well. "We're all fucked.... " etc.Benpointer said:
In respect of what, given he retired in 2007?Beverley_C said:FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."0 -
STVBlack_Rook said:
From the point of view of more than one section of the electorate, a radical realignment like this (Tories dump their Right, Labour dump their Left) would be very welcome. Pro-EU types would end up getting something like an Andrex Soft Brexit, or a referendum choice between that and just staying in; everybody other than Corbyn's fan club would be thrilled to see the ascendancy of his faction checked.Anazina said:
Quite.rottenborough said:
If you live by the sword, Jezza... All those years of trooping through the 'nay' lobby with the Tories when Blair was in his pomp are coming back now.Scott_P said:
Actually, a governmental quad of Coops, Liddo, Benners and the Governator wouldn’t be too bad. Compared to what we have now, Shangrila.
Ideally this would be followed by electoral reform: I think it's getting to the point where we need to make sure that radical voices are properly represented in Parliament, but not given the chance to take over the whole show unless public support for them becomes overwhelming. Every electoral system has its advantages and drawbacks, and I'm well aware of the deficiencies of PR, but an adversarial and majoritarian system is, perhaps, not the best means to reflect the diversity of views in a society, or to encourage consensus building over entrenched division.
Chances of it happening, of course, are somewhere between remote and non-existent.0 -
Deleted: wrong clip0
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Thanks. I was thinking of Buster Mottram, the tennis player who lost a load of money in Lloyds (the insurance market) (Lloyds being in my head for work-related reasons) and wondering what the poor lamb had to do with it all.Beverley_C said:FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."0 -
Ah, fair enough - very apt.Beverley_C said:
I think his quote covers the current deadlocked Brexit situation quite well. "We're all fucked.... " etc.Benpointer said:
In respect of what, given he retired in 2007?Beverley_C said:FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."0 -
Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:
Don't see how that works with a coffee shop. Was Patisserie Valerie setting up fake transactions in icing with Patisserie Ronald (owned by Valerie)? Dare say we'll find out eventually.TheScreamingEagles said:
Created a load of fake sales/transactions via other companies (that they controlled but didn't disclose) that boosted the value of Enron.Cyclefree said:
Remind me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same way Enron pulled off this trick?Cyclefree said:
How the hell did thousands of fake ledger entries get made without anyone noticing? I'd love to know the full story here.eek said:
Not at all - it's got a pile of locations that make zero sense - my favourite one is at the backend of a shopping centre in Preston where no-one ever goes I only walked past it if the other carparks were full.Cyclefree said:Well, this is not a surprise.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/fraud-threat-to-patisserie-valerie-future-ffm63tq8m
He has time for a beer?0 -
Buster Mottram - poor lamb? Hmmm.Cyclefree said:
Thanks. I was thinking of Buster Mottram, the tennis player who lost a load of money in Lloyds (the insurance market) (Lloyds being in my head for work-related reasons) and wondering what the poor lamb had to do with it all.Beverley_C said:FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7706857.stm0 -
hes a really nice bloke, true professional wont say anything he shouldnt but still keeps our pub table amused on how to get a cream cake !AmpfieldAndy said:
He’s got a tough job. Dealing with workout bankers, which I imagine he’s doing, is very hard work.Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:
Don't see how that works with a coffee shop. Was Patisserie Valerie setting up fake transactions in icing with Patisserie Ronald (owned by Valerie)? Dare say we'll find out eventually.TheScreamingEagles said:
Created a load of fake sales/transactions via other companies (that they controlled but didn't disclose) that boosted the value of Enron.Cyclefree said:
Remind me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same way Enron pulled off this trick?Cyclefree said:
How the hell did thousands of fake ledger entries get made without anyone noticing? I'd love to know the full story here.eek said:
Not at all - it's got a pile of locations that make zero sense - my favourite one is at the backend of a shopping centre in Preston where no-one ever goes I only walked past it if the other carparks were full.Cyclefree said:Well, this is not a surprise.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/fraud-threat-to-patisserie-valerie-future-ffm63tq8m0 -
Which converts into 56/44 when you remove the Don’t Knows.williamglenn said:For the first time, YouGov have 50% saying Brexit was the wrong decision, with only 40% thinking it was right.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j09xvmg215/PeoplesVoteResults_190116_SnapPolling_w.pdf0 -
It's cheaper than the therapy that would probably be required otherwise...Cyclefree said:Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:
Don't see how that works with a coffee shop. Was Patisserie Valerie setting up fake transactions in icing with Patisserie Ronald (owned by Valerie)? Dare say we'll find out eventually.TheScreamingEagles said:
Created a load of fake sales/transactions via other companies (that they controlled but didn't disclose) that boosted the value of Enron.Cyclefree said:
Remind me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same way Enron pulled off this trick?Cyclefree said:
How the hell did thousands of fake ledger entries get made without anyone noticing? I'd love to know the full story here.eek said:
Not at all - it's got a pile of locations that make zero sense - my favourite one is at the backend of a shopping centre in Preston where no-one ever goes I only walked past it if the other carparks were full.Cyclefree said:Well, this is not a surprise.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/fraud-threat-to-patisserie-valerie-future-ffm63tq8m
He has time for a beer?0 -
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.0 -
I was being sarcastic.Benpointer said:
Buster Mottram - poor lamb? Hmmm.Cyclefree said:
Thanks. I was thinking of Buster Mottram, the tennis player who lost a load of money in Lloyds (the insurance market) (Lloyds being in my head for work-related reasons) and wondering what the poor lamb had to do with it all.Beverley_C said:FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7706857.stm
I'm well aware of his views.0 -
Anyone sensible has.Cyclefree said:Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:
Don't see how that works with a coffee shop. Was Patisserie Valerie setting up fake transactions in icing with Patisserie Ronald (owned by Valerie)? Dare say we'll find out eventually.TheScreamingEagles said:
Created a load of fake sales/transactions via other companies (that they controlled but didn't disclose) that boosted the value of Enron.Cyclefree said:
Remind me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same way Enron pulled off this trick?Cyclefree said:
How the hell did thousands of fake ledger entries get made without anyone noticing? I'd love to know the full story here.eek said:
Not at all - it's got a pile of locations that make zero sense - my favourite one is at the backend of a shopping centre in Preston where no-one ever goes I only walked past it if the other carparks were full.Cyclefree said:Well, this is not a surprise.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/fraud-threat-to-patisserie-valerie-future-ffm63tq8m
He has time for a beer?
The one thing I learned from working in Germany is the anglo saxon addiction to sitting in the office becasue youre afraid to go home "early" is a total pile of crap. Germans come to work, do their job in time and then go off and have a life. Much better all round.0 -
NotedCyclefree said:
I was being sarcastic.Benpointer said:
Buster Mottram - poor lamb? Hmmm.Cyclefree said:
Thanks. I was thinking of Buster Mottram, the tennis player who lost a load of money in Lloyds (the insurance market) (Lloyds being in my head for work-related reasons) and wondering what the poor lamb had to do with it all.Beverley_C said:FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7706857.stm
I'm well aware of his views. 0 -
It's almost like they are lining up May as the fall guy....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.0 -
Agree with much of this. Although the electoral longevity of such a re-alignment has yet to be tested.Black_Rook said:
From the point of view of more than one section of the electorate, a radical realignment like this (Tories dump their Right, Labour dump their Left) would be very welcome. Pro-EU types would end up getting something like an Andrex Soft Brexit, or a referendum choice between that and just staying in; everybody other than Corbyn's fan club would be thrilled to see the ascendancy of his faction checked.Anazina said:
Quite.rottenborough said:
If you live by the sword, Jezza... All those years of trooping through the 'nay' lobby with the Tories when Blair was in his pomp are coming back now.Scott_P said:
Actually, a governmental quad of Coops, Liddo, Benners and the Governator wouldn’t be too bad. Compared to what we have now, Shangrila.
Ideally this would be followed by electoral reform: I think it's getting to the point where we need to make sure that radical voices are properly represented in Parliament, but not given the chance to take over the whole show unless public support for them becomes overwhelming. Every electoral system has its advantages and drawbacks, and I'm well aware of the deficiencies of PR, but an adversarial and majoritarian system is, perhaps, not the best means to reflect the diversity of views in a society, or to encourage consensus building over entrenched division.
Chances of it happening, of course, are somewhere between remote and non-existent.
The most remarkable thing about Brexit...well, one of them, has been how its proponents have launched a radical re-interpretation of our relationship with the outside world, without a scintilla of interest in how our internal structure ie, our government system, works. There is absolutely no flicker of curiosity in any adaptation, reform or change. Or any thoughts whatsoever on the matter.
It is as though the only lesson to be gleamed from the Referendum result is that the system is perfect but for the influence of pesky foreigners.
0 -
Open-List County PR.logical_song said:
STVBlack_Rook said:
From the point of view of more than one section of the electorate, a radical realignment like this (Tories dump their Right, Labour dump their Left) would be very welcome. Pro-EU types would end up getting something like an Andrex Soft Brexit, or a referendum choice between that and just staying in; everybody other than Corbyn's fan club would be thrilled to see the ascendancy of his faction checked.Anazina said:
Quite.rottenborough said:
If you live by the sword, Jezza... All those years of trooping through the 'nay' lobby with the Tories when Blair was in his pomp are coming back now.Scott_P said:
Actually, a governmental quad of Coops, Liddo, Benners and the Governator wouldn’t be too bad. Compared to what we have now, Shangrila.
Ideally this would be followed by electoral reform: I think it's getting to the point where we need to make sure that radical voices are properly represented in Parliament, but not given the chance to take over the whole show unless public support for them becomes overwhelming. Every electoral system has its advantages and drawbacks, and I'm well aware of the deficiencies of PR, but an adversarial and majoritarian system is, perhaps, not the best means to reflect the diversity of views in a society, or to encourage consensus building over entrenched division.
Chances of it happening, of course, are somewhere between remote and non-existent.
Just merge existing constituencies into their relevant county (or city for a big city). Use PR (D'hondt version - we use that for all PR elections in this country other than STV for NI Euro elections and Scottish council elections) but with an open list so voters can get rid of bad MPs.
Using a county means voters have an attachment to a "natural" region, and they can understand that region easily. They're also more likely to have an MP from their region and preferred party.
You can limit the size of constituencies to, say, 12. Most will be significantly smaller, and you'd not have any "second choice, third choice, fourth choice" issues (or calculating games around which order to ask people to vote in or worries about "transfer rates"), you'd have still a chance at majority government if you were mid-forties and clearly ahead, and more points of view would be represented.
Basically - if you got about 50% of the votes in Oxfordshire, you'd have about 50% of the MPs in Oxfordshire, so people would understand it clearly on an emotional level.0 -
Benpointer said:
In respect of what, given he retired in 2007?Beverley_C said:FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."
Wasn't it all the shenanigans to do with Network Rail, when it was effectively renationalised? Steve Byers and Jo Moore (she of "Today is a good day to bury bad news" fame) and Martin Sixsmith and general fear and loathing between Labour Ministers, their Spads and the civil service.0 -
You take No Deal off the table by agreeing a Deal. You can't do it in advance of a Deal.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.
Alternatively, you change the government, in order to revoke Brexit, but the Commons rejected that option yesterday.0 -
Of course you can. Deal or Remain.Sean_F said:
You take No Deal off the table by agreeing a Deal. You can't do it in advance of a Deal.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.0 -
Obviously, a government can revoke A50, which takes both a Deal, and No Deal off the table. But, you first need a change of government.Benpointer said:
Of course you can. Deal or Remain.Sean_F said:
You take No Deal off the table by agreeing a Deal. You can't do it in advance of a Deal.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.0 -
When you're dealing with a fraud that goes back 3 years that's not really the same as a normal job, where I would agree with you.Alanbrooke said:
Anyone sensible has.Cyclefree said:Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:
Don't see how that works with a coffee shop. Was Patisserie Valerie setting up fake transactions in icing with Patisserie Ronald (owned by Valerie)? Dare say we'll find out eventually.TheScreamingEagles said:
Created a load of fake sales/transactions via other companies (that they controlled but didn't disclose) that boosted the value of Enron.Cyclefree said:
Remind me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same way Enron pulled off this trick?Cyclefree said:
How the hell did thousands of fake ledger entries get made without anyone noticing? I'd love to know the full story here.eek said:
Not at all - it's got a pile of locations that make zero sense - my favourite one is at the backend of a shopping centre in Preston where no-one ever goes I only walked past it if the other carparks were full.Cyclefree said:Well, this is not a surprise.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/fraud-threat-to-patisserie-valerie-future-ffm63tq8m
He has time for a beer?
The one thing I learned from working in Germany is the anglo saxon addiction to sitting in the office becasue youre afraid to go home "early" is a total pile of crap. Germans come to work, do their job in time and then go off and have a life. Much better all round.
I know. I've been there.
I'm sure your friend is a nice bloke doing a good job, etc but while he's having his beer and discussing cake with you, there will be others working bloody hard and late for him.
And Germans - banks/regulators - are proof that the coming in/doing your job/going home on time can be an utter disaster if it means that they don't do what they ought to be doing.0 -
I think a commitment to revoke or extend A50 if a deal cannot be reached by 29th March would be enough to satisfy the opposition parties.Sean_F said:
Obviously, a government can revoke A50, which takes both a Deal, and No Deal off the table. But, you first need a change of government.Benpointer said:
Of course you can. Deal or Remain.Sean_F said:
You take No Deal off the table by agreeing a Deal. You can't do it in advance of a Deal.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.0 -
All to do with Brexit of course and nothing to do with the company reporting "disappointing quarterly earnings" also mentioned in the news release.Scott_P said:Despite Brexit...
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/10859279326384783390 -
Well, it's not moving the jobs from The Netherlands to Britain.Norm said:
All to do with Brexit of course and nothing to do with the company reporting "disappointing quarterly earnings" also mentioned in the news release.Scott_P said:Despite Brexit...
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/10859279326384783390 -
Mrs C Ive been through as many torrid times as you and in several jurisdictions, Hanging about to pretend your contributing is just a nonsense, The best thing sensior management can do in a crisis is agree a prgramme and give the people who do the work the space to do it.Cyclefree said:
When you're dealing with a fraud that goes back 3 years that's not really the same as a normal job, where I would agree with you.Alanbrooke said:
Anyone sensible has.Cyclefree said:Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:
Don't see how that works with a coffee shop. Was Patisserie Valerie setting up fake transactions in icing with Patisserie Ronald (owned by Valerie)? Dare say we'll find out eventually.TheScreamingEagles said:
Created a load of fake sales/transactions via other companies (that they controlled but didn't disclose) that boosted the value of Enron.Cyclefree said:
Remind me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same way Enron pulled off this trick?Cyclefree said:
How the hell did thousands of fake ledger entries get made without anyone noticing? I'd love to know the full story here.eek said:
Not at all - it's got a pile of locations that make zero sense - my favourite one is at the backend of a shopping centre in Preston where no-one ever goes I only walked past it if the other carparks were full.Cyclefree said:Well, this is not a surprise.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/fraud-threat-to-patisserie-valerie-future-ffm63tq8m
He has time for a beer?
The one thing I learned from working in Germany is the anglo saxon addiction to sitting in the office becasue youre afraid to go home "early" is a total pile of crap. Germans come to work, do their job in time and then go off and have a life. Much better all round.
I know. I've been there.
I'm sure your friend is a nice bloke doing a good job, etc but while he's having his beer and discussing cake with you, there will be others working bloody hard and late for him.
And Germans - banks/regulators - are proof that the coming in/doing your job/going home on time can be an utter disaster if it means that they don't do what they ought to be doing.
Endless reporting and micromanagment achieve little except to make control freaks feel good.0 -
Thank you.Anazina said:
Great post.Black_Rook said:
From the point of view of more than one section of the electorate, a radical realignment like this (Tories dump their Right, Labour dump their Left) would be very welcome. Pro-EU types would end up getting something like an Andrex Soft Brexit, or a referendum choice between that and just staying in; everybody other than Corbyn's fan club would be thrilled to see the ascendancy of his faction checked.Anazina said:
Quite.rottenborough said:
If you live by the sword, Jezza... All those years of trooping through the 'nay' lobby with the Tories when Blair was in his pomp are coming back now.Scott_P said:
Actually, a governmental quad of Coops, Liddo, Benners and the Governator wouldn’t be too bad. Compared to what we have now, Shangrila.
Ideally this would be followed by electoral reform: I think it's getting to the point where we need to make sure that radical voices are properly represented in Parliament, but not given the chance to take over the whole show unless public support for them becomes overwhelming. Every electoral system has its advantages and drawbacks, and I'm well aware of the deficiencies of PR, but an adversarial and majoritarian system is, perhaps, not the best means to reflect the diversity of views in a society, or to encourage consensus building over entrenched division.
Chances of it happening, of course, are somewhere between remote and non-existent.
For the record, I'm someone who has cleaved towards keeping FPTP in the past, but I like to think I'm not too rigid in my views and sometimes one has to acknowledge that the facts on the ground and/or one's own attitudes towards them have changed. My major objections to a proportional system - that it potentially rewards small centre parties with too much power, and encourages lengthy grand coalitions when hard right and left parties gain ascendancy - no longer seem so important when having a properly representative system that promotes compromise, dialogue, and at least ensures that everyone is heard and that most people get some of what they want done, has become such a pressing need.
There should be an end to single parties being able, under the right circumstances, to win overall Parliamentary majorities with only a third of the popular vote.0 -
We've got to learn to love Brexit. We will all be able to cut down on red meat and grow our own vegetables. The BBC can commission major new series to help us. Broccoli with Boris. Leeks with Liam come to mind Oh Brave New World..0
-
Which is simply a commitment to revoke Brexit on 29th March 2019. In which case, what would be the purpose of any negotiation? The government would already have given its opponents what they want.Benpointer said:
I think a commitment to revoke or extend A50 if a deal cannot be reached by 29th March would be enough to satisfy the opposition parties.Sean_F said:
Obviously, a government can revoke A50, which takes both a Deal, and No Deal off the table. But, you first need a change of government.Benpointer said:
Of course you can. Deal or Remain.Sean_F said:
You take No Deal off the table by agreeing a Deal. You can't do it in advance of a Deal.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.
Not that any Conservative Prime Minister could give such a commitment and remain as party leader in any case.,
0 -
I love FPTP from a nostalgic point of view, in terms of watching election replays, but it's definitely time to change to a PR system. STV is probably the best option.Black_Rook said:
Thank you.Anazina said:
Great post.Black_Rook said:
From the point of view of more than one section of the electorate, a radical realignment like this (Tories dump their Right, Labour dump their Left) would be very welcome. Pro-EU types would end up getting something like an Andrex Soft Brexit, or a referendum choice between that and just staying in; everybody other than Corbyn's fan club would be thrilled to see the ascendancy of his faction checked.Anazina said:
Quite.rottenborough said:
If you live by the sword, Jezza... All those years of trooping through the 'nay' lobby with the Tories when Blair was in his pomp are coming back now.Scott_P said:
Actually, a governmental quad of Coops, Liddo, Benners and the Governator wouldn’t be too bad. Compared to what we have now, Shangrila.
Ideally this would be followed by electoral reform: I think it's getting to the point where we need to make sure that radical voices are properly represented in Parliament, but not given the chance to take over the whole show unless public support for them becomes overwhelming. Every electoral system has its advantages and drawbacks, and I'm well aware of the deficiencies of PR, but an adversarial and majoritarian system is, perhaps, not the best means to reflect the diversity of views in a society, or to encourage consensus building over entrenched division.
Chances of it happening, of course, are somewhere between remote and non-existent.
For the record, I'm someone who has cleaved towards keeping FPTP in the past, but I like to think I'm not too rigid in my views and sometimes one has to acknowledge that the facts on the ground and/or one's own attitudes towards them have changed. My major objections to a proportional system - that it potentially rewards small centre parties with too much power, and encourages lengthy grand coalitions when hard right and left parties gain ascendancy - no longer seem so important when having a properly representative system that promotes compromise, dialogue, and at least ensures that everyone is heard and that most people get some of what they want done, has become such a pressing need.
There should be an end to single parties being able, under the right circumstances, to win overall Parliamentary majorities with only a third of the popular vote.0 -
But of course extension can't be done unilaterially, so the EU can turn a commitment to revoke or extend into a commitment to revoke ...Benpointer said:
I think a commitment to revoke or extend A50 if a deal cannot be reached by 29th March would be enough to satisfy the opposition parties.Sean_F said:
Obviously, a government can revoke A50, which takes both a Deal, and No Deal off the table. But, you first need a change of government.Benpointer said:
Of course you can. Deal or Remain.Sean_F said:
You take No Deal off the table by agreeing a Deal. You can't do it in advance of a Deal.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.0 -
Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place
Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo
Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal
I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position
I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks
I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit0 -
So. Having spectacularly failed to persuade the Conservative Party of the merits of the deal, Plan B appears to be to use those same powers of charm, to convert the Opposition.
Or is it something else?0 -
Agree with that. But the people who do the work (i.e. people like me) assuredly do not go home at 5:30 pm because senior managers / regulators / authorities etc etc ask for things the next day without realising what is involved. There's no need for micro-management but some awareness of how long it takes to provide what is asked for, even under an agreed programme, is needed.Alanbrooke said:
Mrs C Ive been through as many torrid times as you and in several jurisdictions, Hanging about to pretend your contributing is just a nonsense, The best thing sensior management can do in a crisis is agree a prgramme and give the people who do the work the space to do it.Cyclefree said:
When you're dealing with a fraud that goes back 3 years that's not really the same as a normal job, where I would agree with you.Alanbrooke said:
Anyone sensible has.Cyclefree said:Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:Cyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:
He has time for a beer?
The one thing I learned from working in Germany is the anglo saxon addiction to sitting in the office becasue youre afraid to go home "early" is a total pile of crap. Germans come to work, do their job in time and then go off and have a life. Much better all round.
I know. I've been there.
I'm sure your friend is a nice bloke doing a good job, etc but while he's having his beer and discussing cake with you, there will be others working bloody hard and late for him.
And Germans - banks/regulators - are proof that the coming in/doing your job/going home on time can be an utter disaster if it means that they don't do what they ought to be doing.
Endless reporting and micromanagment achieve little except to make control freaks feel good.
And in the middle of a fraud investigation, agreed programmes - like battle plans - rarely survive first contact with reality. I am willing to bet that I have done far more investigations than you. It is not a job for those who want to have a predictable regular 8 hours a day job. And a CFO in the middle of a major company fraud has a hell of a lot on his plate. Still, good luck to your friend.0 -
Bear in mind that many Conservative activists and members are fanatically pro-Brexit. That is the audience Mrs May is playing to and saving the Tory Party is far more important than the UK.Benpointer said:
I think a commitment to revoke or extend A50 if a deal cannot be reached by 29th March would be enough to satisfy the opposition parties.Sean_F said:
Obviously, a government can revoke A50, which takes both a Deal, and No Deal off the table. But, you first need a change of government.Benpointer said:
Of course you can. Deal or Remain.Sean_F said:
You take No Deal off the table by agreeing a Deal. You can't do it in advance of a Deal.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.
The Tories are just as madly tribal as Labour, they are just less obvious about it.0 -
I feel relatively sure - 65% - that we will Brexit shortly. Maybe not on time, but shortly thereafter.
There are two components of the “Deal” on the table; the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration.
A decent chunk of Tory rebels and the DUP - around 100 votes - are objecting to the backstop, ie the Withdrawal Agreement, with which it is basically synonymous. As we have discussed, at this stage there’s simply no other way to Leave. These votes can therefore be ignored in the sense they cannot an will not be won around.
The rest of Parliament are really then just bickering about the Political Declaration and/or, whether to put it back to the People.
I suspect, sadly, that a People’s Vote doesn’t quite have the votes.
So, in the end, this is about the PD.
Will it be single market only, customs union only, or single and customs union both? I’m not sure which, but I do feel it’s more likely than not that one of these can be agreed even if it is grudgingly and under duress.
I doubt Corbyn will vote for a Deal. But like the ERGers he will ignored as the Yvette Cooper bloc give May the votes she needs to pass.0 -
Nope. That's it. Certainly looks that way. She is as stubborn as an intergalactic mule.dixiedean said:So. Having spectacularly failed to persuade the Conservative Party of the merits of the deal, Plan B appears to be to use those same powers of charm, to convert the Opposition.
Or is it something else?0 -
Cyclefree said:
the only thing that really matters is when are you going to run out of cash and can you get some more ?Alanbrooke said:
Agree with that. But the people who do the work (i.e. people like me) assuredly do not go home at 5:30 pm because senior managers / regulators / authorities etc etc ask for things the next day without realising what is involved. There's no need for micro-management but some awareness of how long it takes to provide what is asked for, even under an agreed programme, is needed.Cyclefree said:
Mrs C Ive been through as many torrid times as you and in several jurisdictions, Hanging about to pretend your contributing is just a nonsense, The best thing sensior management can do in a crisis is agree a prgramme and give the people who do the work the space to do it.Alanbrooke said:
Anyone sensible has.Cyclefree said:Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:Cyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:
He has time for a beer?
The one thing I learned from working i.
I know. I've been there.
I'm sure your friend is a nice bloke doing a good job, etc but while he's having his beer and discussing cake with you, there will be others working bloody hard and late for him.
And Germans - banks/regulators - are proof that the coming in/doing your job/going home on time can be an utter disaster if it means that they don't do what they ought to be doing.
Endless reporting and micromanagment achieve little except to make control freaks feel good.
And in the middle of a fraud investigation, agreed programmes - like battle plans - rarely survive first contact with reality. I am willing to bet that I have done far more investigations than you. It is not a job for those who want to have a predictable regular 8 hours a day job. And a CFO in the middle of a major company fraud has a hell of a lot on his plate. Still, good luck to your friend.
everything else is problem fixing and blame apportionment. If you cant stabilise cash youve had it,0 -
It's not a serious demand. It's a demand that the government commit itself to revoking Brexit by 29th March, in advance of any discussions.Beverley_C said:
Bear in mind that many Conservative activists and members are fanatically pro-Brexit. That is the audience Mrs May is playing to and saving the Tory Party is far more important than the UK.Benpointer said:
I think a commitment to revoke or extend A50 if a deal cannot be reached by 29th March would be enough to satisfy the opposition parties.Sean_F said:
Obviously, a government can revoke A50, which takes both a Deal, and No Deal off the table. But, you first need a change of government.Benpointer said:
Of course you can. Deal or Remain.Sean_F said:
You take No Deal off the table by agreeing a Deal. You can't do it in advance of a Deal.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.
The Tories are just as madly tribal as Labour, they are just less obvious about it.
0 -
Whilst I wouldn't quibble with you characterization of the partisan nature of activists/members (by nature they're the self-selecting outriders) I would question your assessment of May's motivations.Beverley_C said:
Bear in mind that many Conservative activists and members are fanatically pro-Brexit. That is the audience Mrs May is playing to and saving the Tory Party is far more important than the UK.
The Tories are just as madly tribal as Labour, they are just less obvious about it.
Of all the leaders in the HoC only May is coming close to honouring the referendum. All the others are paying lip-service to the vote whilst scrambling for any open avenue to stop Brexit.
And it is the obvious duplicity of the remainers in their reluctance to have the courage of their convictions and actually demand the revocation of A50 and the cancelling of Brexit that grates.
0 -
The problem is that no conceivable political declaration has public support that gets out of the teens. Norway Plus has abysmal support.Gardenwalker said:I feel relatively sure - 65% - that we will Brexit shortly. Maybe not on time, but shortly thereafter.
There are two components of the “Deal” on the table; the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration.
A decent chunk of Tory rebels and the DUP - around 100 votes - are objecting to the backstop, ie the Withdrawal Agreement, with which it is basically synonymous. As we have discussed, at this stage there’s simply no other way to Leave. These votes can therefore be ignored in the sense they cannot an will not be won around.
The rest of Parliament are really then just bickering about the Political Declaration and/or, whether to put it back to the People.
I suspect, sadly, that a People’s Vote doesn’t quite have the votes.
So, in the end, this is about the PD.
Will it be single market only, customs union only, or single and customs union both? I’m not sure which, but I do feel it’s more likely than not that one of these can be agreed even if it is grudgingly and under duress.
I doubt Corbyn will vote for a Deal. But like the ERGers he will ignored as the Yvette Cooper bloc give May the votes she needs to pass.0 -
If I was as damaged as she was, I think I'd remove myself from the action. Appoint someone respected across the house (I'm thinking someone like Rory Stewart, Rob Halfon, Mark Field) to act as my ambassador, overseeing all the opposition engagement, and reporting back on where the avenues of agreement are.rottenborough said:
Nope. That's it. Certainly looks that way. She is as stubborn as an intergalactic mule.dixiedean said:So. Having spectacularly failed to persuade the Conservative Party of the merits of the deal, Plan B appears to be to use those same powers of charm, to convert the Opposition.
Or is it something else?
Theresa May is simply part of the problem and she needs to take a step back now.0 -
An intergalactical mule sounds like the character from Asimov's 'Foundation' stories.rottenborough said:
Nope. That's it. Certainly looks that way. She is as stubborn as an intergalactic mule.dixiedean said:So. Having spectacularly failed to persuade the Conservative Party of the merits of the deal, Plan B appears to be to use those same powers of charm, to convert the Opposition.
Or is it something else?
Who, readers may recall, was a lot better at persuading people to his way of thinking than Mrs May will ever be.0 -
I thought it was the other way round - May having meetings to be able to say to the electorate “Not me guv’”eek said:
It's almost like they are lining up May as the fall guy....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384
So basically this is May's kitchen cabinet trying to sell her dodo deal to various opposition backbenchers.
I do hope Boles wins through in the end.0 -
But she knows from the EU side she has nowhere to go. Don't forget there were still people telling us how when the vote this week was defeated, that would be the time the EU backed down.rottenborough said:
Nope. That's it. Certainly looks that way. She is as stubborn as an intergalactic mule.dixiedean said:So. Having spectacularly failed to persuade the Conservative Party of the merits of the deal, Plan B appears to be to use those same powers of charm, to convert the Opposition.
Or is it something else?
So that means not really being able to change anything in the UK's favour. Anything she can change will be in the EU's favour (eg CU). Of course, a CU which includes the previously NI-specific arrangements for the whole of the UK would satisfy the DUP but her backbenchers would explode. Then again, maybe she would draw out some Lab MPs.
But at present it looks as though she isn't going to change much before the next vote.
Amazingly.0 -
Although it's strongly intimated we don't know that Mr B's friend goes home after his convivial beer. A bit of 'me' and 'unwinding' time during the day may be what he's having.Cyclefree said:
Agree with that. But the people who do the work (i.e. people like me) assuredly do not go home at 5:30 pm because senior managers / regulators / authorities etc etc ask for things the next day without realising what is involved. There's no need for micro-management but some awareness of how long it takes to provide what is asked for, even under an agreed programme, is needed.Alanbrooke said:
Mrs C Ive been through as many torrid times as you and in several jurisdictions, Hanging about to pretend your contributing is just a nonsense, The best thing sensior management can do in a crisis is agree a prgramme and give the people who do the work the space to do it.Cyclefree said:
When you're dealing with a fraud that goes back 3 years that's not really the same as a normal job, where I would agree with you.Alanbrooke said:
Anyone sensible has.Cyclefree said:Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:Cyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:
He has time for a beer?
The one thing I learned from working in Germany is the anglo saxon addiction to sitting in the office becasue youre afraid to go home "early" is a total pile of crap. Germans come to work, do their job in time and then go off and have a life. Much better all round.
I know. I've been there.
And Germans - banks/regulators - are proof that the coming in/doing your job/going home on time can be an utter disaster if it means that they don't do what they ought to be doing.
Endless reporting and micromanagment achieve little except to make control freaks feel good.
And in the middle of a fraud investigation, agreed programmes - like battle plans - rarely survive first contact with reality. I am willing to bet that I have done far more investigations than you. It is not a job for those who want to have a predictable regular 8 hours a day job. And a CFO in the middle of a major company fraud has a hell of a lot on his plate. Still, good luck to your friend.0 -
Alanbrooke said:
True.Cyclefree said:
the only thing that really matters is when are you going to run out of cash and can you get some more ?Alanbrooke said:
Agree with that. But the people who do the work (i.e. people like me) assuredly do not go home at 5:30 pm because senior managers / regulators / authorities etc etc ask for things the next day without realising what is involved. There's no need for micro-management but some awareness of how long it takes to provide what is asked for, even under an agreed programme, is needed.Cyclefree said:
Mrs C Ive been through as many torrid times as you and in several jurisdictions, Hanging about to pretend your contributing is just a nonsense, The best thing sensior management can do in a crisis is agree a prgramme and give the people who do the work the space to do it.Alanbrooke said:
Anyone sensible has.Cyclefree said:Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:Cyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:
He has time for a beer?
The one thing I learned from working i.
I know. I've been there.
I'm sure your friend is a nice bloke doing a good job, etc but while he's having his beer and discussing cake with you, there will be others working bloody hard and late for him.
And Germans - banks/regulators - are proof that the coming in/doing your job/going home on time can be an utter disaster if it means that they don't do what they ought to be doing.
Endless reporting and micromanagment achieve little except to make control freaks feel good.
And in the middle of a fraud investigation, agreed programmes - like battle plans - rarely survive first contact with reality. I am willing to bet that I have done far more investigations than you. It is not a job for those who want to have a predictable regular 8 hours a day job. And a CFO in the middle of a major company fraud has a hell of a lot on his plate. Still, good luck to your friend.
everything else is problem fixing and blame apportionment. If you cant stabilise cash youve had it,
Mind you problem fixing is pretty important. As is blame apportionment when you have a criminal trial to prepare for.
Or when you've been persuaded to put more cash in and find out some months later that the black hole is even bigger than you were told....0 -
One of the crucial variables in STV is the number of MPs per constituency.AndyJS said:
I love FPTP from a nostalgic point of view, in terms of watching election replays, but it's definitely time to change to a PR system. STV is probably the best option.Black_Rook said:
Thank you.
For the record, I'm someone who has cleaved towards keeping FPTP in the past, but I like to think I'm not too rigid in my views and sometimes one has to acknowledge that the facts on the ground and/or one's own attitudes towards them have changed. My major objections to a proportional system - that it potentially rewards small centre parties with too much power, and encourages lengthy grand coalitions when hard right and left parties gain ascendancy - no longer seem so important when having a properly representative system that promotes compromise, dialogue, and at least ensures that everyone is heard and that most people get some of what they want done, has become such a pressing need.
There should be an end to single parties being able, under the right circumstances, to win overall Parliamentary majorities with only a third of the popular vote.
I favour a relatively high number, say around five or six, which would, for example, see a single constituency for Cornwall elect six MPs. You would get quite different results with, say, three MPs per constituency.
I tend to think that we've missed the bus on tinkering with the voting system, though. It's not like STV is a panacea that creates better politics in Ireland. I'd favour more radical changes such as replacing the House of Lords with a chamber chosen using the jury system.0 -
Chuka Umunna socking it to Corbyn. Also Stephen Kinnock meeting the PM and her colleagues
This is becoming to look like a rebellion0 -
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384Big_G_NorthWales said:Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place
Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo
Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal
I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position
I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks
I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit
Benn and Cooper's position certainly bears a passing resemblance to Corbyn's.0 -
They will huff and puff a bit and that will be it. As always.Big_G_NorthWales said:Chuka Umunna socking it to Corbyn. Also Stephen Kinnock meeting the PM and her colleagues
This is becoming to look like a rebellion0 -
Mrs May was a remainer who saw a place in history for herself. Bit like Boris Johnson.SunnyJim said:
Whilst I wouldn't quibble with you characterization of the partisan nature of activists/members (by nature they're the self-selecting outriders) I would question your assessment of May's motivations.Beverley_C said:
Bear in mind that many Conservative activists and members are fanatically pro-Brexit. That is the audience Mrs May is playing to and saving the Tory Party is far more important than the UK.
The Tories are just as madly tribal as Labour, they are just less obvious about it.
Of all the leaders in the HoC only May is coming close to honouring the referendum. All the others are paying lip-service to the vote whilst scrambling for any open avenue to stop Brexit.
And it is the obvious duplicity of the remainers in their reluctance to have the courage of their convictions and actually demand the revocation of A50 and the cancelling of Brexit that grates.0 -
Also well known NF/BNP supporter, so karma 'n' all that.Cyclefree said:
Thanks. I was thinking of Buster Mottram, the tennis player who lost a load of money in Lloyds (the insurance market) (Lloyds being in my head for work-related reasons) and wondering what the poor lamb had to do with it all.Beverley_C said:FPT:
"Sir Richard Clive Mottram, GCB (born 23 April 1946) is a former British civil servant, who retired in 2007 from his most recent senior post as Permanent Secretary, Intelligence, Security and Resilience in the Cabinet Office" (Wikipedia)Cyclefree said:
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
and is famous for saying....
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked."0 -
May is being pretty duplicitous herself in wittering about altering the WA when she knows damn well that it cannot be altered in any way which would be acceptable to her party, the DUP and the EU. She would be more honest if she now said that the only way to exit is via No Deal and that's it.SunnyJim said:
Whilst I wouldn't quibble with you characterization of the partisan nature of activists/members (by nature they're the self-selecting outriders) I would question your assessment of May's motivations.Beverley_C said:
Bear in mind that many Conservative activists and members are fanatically pro-Brexit. That is the audience Mrs May is playing to and saving the Tory Party is far more important than the UK.
The Tories are just as madly tribal as Labour, they are just less obvious about it.
Of all the leaders in the HoC only May is coming close to honouring the referendum. All the others are paying lip-service to the vote whilst scrambling for any open avenue to stop Brexit.
And it is the obvious duplicity of the remainers in their reluctance to have the courage of their convictions and actually demand the revocation of A50 and the cancelling of Brexit that grates.
0 -
Cyclefree said:
Blame apportionment is rarely time critical except in the very early days when youre clearing out the management team. Problem fixing is more complex since quite often the management dont know what the problem is either. keeping the show on he road is as much luck as judgement.Alanbrooke said:
True.Cyclefree said:
the only thing that really matters is when are you going to run out of cash and can you get some more ?Alanbrooke said:
Agree with that. Bu.Cyclefree said:
Mrs C Ive been through as many torrid times as you and in several jurisdictions, Hanging about to pretend your contributing is just a nonsense, The best thing sensior management can do in a crisis is agree a prgramme and give the people who do the work the space to do it.Alanbrooke said:
Anyone sensible has.Cyclefree said:Alanbrooke said:
I go for a beer with the interim CFO most ThursdaysCyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:Cyclefree said:TheScreamingEagles said:
He has time for a beer?
The one thing I learned from working i.
I know. I've been there.
I'm sure your friend is a nice bloke doing a good job, etc but while he's having his beer and discussing cake with you, there will be others working bloody hard and late for him.
And Germans - banks/regulators - are proof that the coming in/doing your job/going home on time can be an utter disaster if it means that they don't do what they ought to be doing.
Endless reporting and micromanagment achieve little except to make control freaks feel good.
everything else is problem fixing and blame apportionment. If you cant stabilise cash youve had it,
Mind you problem fixing is pretty important. As is blame apportionment when you have a criminal trial to prepare for.
Or when you've been persuaded to put more cash in and find out some months later that the black hole is even bigger than you were told....0 -
That’s the public, though. This is about the House.williamglenn said:
The problem is that no conceivable political declaration has public support that gets out of the teens. Norway Plus has abysmal support.Gardenwalker said:I feel relatively sure - 65% - that we will Brexit shortly. Maybe not on time, but shortly thereafter.
There are two components of the “Deal” on the table; the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration.
A decent chunk of Tory rebels and the DUP - around 100 votes - are objecting to the backstop, ie the Withdrawal Agreement, with which it is basically synonymous. As we have discussed, at this stage there’s simply no other way to Leave. These votes can therefore be ignored in the sense they cannot an will not be won around.
The rest of Parliament are really then just bickering about the Political Declaration and/or, whether to put it back to the People.
I suspect, sadly, that a People’s Vote doesn’t quite have the votes.
So, in the end, this is about the PD.
Will it be single market only, customs union only, or single and customs union both? I’m not sure which, but I do feel it’s more likely than not that one of these can be agreed even if it is grudgingly and under duress.
I doubt Corbyn will vote for a Deal. But like the ERGers he will ignored as the Yvette Cooper bloc give May the votes she needs to pass.0 -
0
-
She’ll send Kinnock away with a flea in his ear for not respecting the referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:Chuka Umunna socking it to Corbyn. Also Stephen Kinnock meeting the PM and her colleagues
This is becoming to look like a rebellion0 -
"Brexit news latest: Support for staying in EU hits highest level since referendum as 56 per cent say no to Brexit "
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-support-for-staying-in-eu-hits-highest-level-since-referendum-as-56-per-cent-say-a4041406.html0 -
He wants Norwaywilliamglenn said:
She’ll send Kinnock away with a flea in his ear for not respecting the referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:Chuka Umunna socking it to Corbyn. Also Stephen Kinnock meeting the PM and her colleagues
This is becoming to look like a rebellion0 -
Is there much difference between meeting May in person to tell her to take no deal off the table or telling her to take no deal off the table before you'll meet her?DecrepitJohnL said:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085929417216528384Big_G_NorthWales said:Just listened to classic fm 4.00pm news that confirmed meetings were continuing with leaders and mps. Tom Brake confirmed he had had a meeting and had said that no deal has to come off the table and a referendum considered. He said further meetings will take place
Then Corbyn banning all his mps from the meetings was confirmed and it was immediately followed by confirmation that Benn and Cooper had been at a meeting, breaking his embargo
Any one listening could only come go the conclusion that Corbyn does not know what he is doing and is scoring an own goal
I hear everyone saying nothing has changed with these meetings but it is a process and until a path through has a common denominator and the amendments on the 29th have been voted on TM is unlikely to pivot away from her position
I do expect no deal will be taken out of the equation at sometime in the next few weeks
I thought it was significant that JRM has said the ERG will support the government in any vonc even if there are problems with their form of brexit
Benn and Cooper's position certainly bears a passing resemblance to Corbyn's.
I'm not seeing it.
Both positions are ridiculous, since to take no deal off the table you have to agree to do something else, but that's incidental to the criticism Corbyn is receiving. It does feel like the media prefers to criticise Corbyn when May's position on sticking to her red lines is more important in the circumstances.0 -
Your conclusion is flawed in as much that we could have a WA agreed tomorrow which, whilst it doesn't achieve the impossible of being acceptable to every strand of opinion, does in a large part honour the referendum.Cyclefree said:
May is being pretty duplicitous herself in wittering about altering the WA when she knows damn well that it cannot be altered in any way which would be acceptable to her party, the DUP and the EU. She would be more honest if she now said that the only way to exit is via No Deal and that's it.
Remainers on the other hand are playing games with the process with their ludicrously transparent 'offers' of compromises which are only staging posts to their preferred destination of the UK remaining in the EU.
Grieve was actually blatant about this in an interview a couple of days ago. He was asked if there was any deal he would support and after saying a Norway type deal he then said it was so close to remaining that he still wouldn't vote for it as we may as well remain in that scenario.
0 -
Exactly. I think May feels this would be the worst solution because it wouldn’t even approximate what anyone could have known they were voting for in 2016.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He wants Norwaywilliamglenn said:
She’ll send Kinnock away with a flea in his ear for not respecting the referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:Chuka Umunna socking it to Corbyn. Also Stephen Kinnock meeting the PM and her colleagues
This is becoming to look like a rebellion0 -
Fair enough - but she seems to have an uncanny ability to characterize a mandate from 37% of the electorate (Leave) as the "Will of the Nation" and then stay fixated on that like it will keep her safe through the mess that will result.SunnyJim said:
Whilst I wouldn't quibble with you characterization of the partisan nature of activists/members (by nature they're the self-selecting outriders) I would question your assessment of May's motivationsBeverley_C said:
Bear in mind that many Conservative activists and members are fanatically pro-Brexit. That is the audience Mrs May is playing to and saving the Tory Party is far more important than the UK.
The Tories are just as madly tribal as Labour, they are just less obvious about it.
There are 63% of us that did not vote Leave and if you, or Mrs May, thinks they will be forgiving if she drives us over the cliff, then you may get a rude awakening.0 -
Ditto.Morris_Dancer said:Weird. I agree with Ian Dunt.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/10859159447220183040 -
Indeed.Morris_Dancer said:Weird. I agree with Ian Dunt.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/10859159447220183040
