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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Tory Brexit crisis continues Corbyn’s “Best PM” ratings

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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:
    1 it’s not particularly likely that Theresa May will be Prime Minister when John Bercow stands down as an MP.

    2 this looks like a bone thrown for the headbangers to run after.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Scott_P said:
    Not having put that protection in place "just in case" is a shocking dereliction of duty by the Govt. of the UK.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    No, if you take a moment to look at the details of what happened in Ireland instead of spouting knee-jerk nonsense then you would know that the citizen assembly in Ireland considered all the different "flavours" of allowing abortion (if at all) - what would be the time limit? Would it be on demand, or would it need two doctors to certify a medical imperative as in Britain and so on.

    The proposal that they brought forward was said to have surprised people and it was their compromise that won support in the subsequent referendum.

    OK, fancy a wager?

    If we get a citizens assembly to ponder Brexit, and they come up with a "solution", I say it doesn't get implemented.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Theresa was willing to let Brexiteer after Brexiteer walk from her government. If Remainers are flouncing out she can always fill those jobs with Brexiteers...

    Maybe we'll finally get the government we should have had all the way along?
    She should just fire them. Clear out time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    The Bercow story is a bit of a non story I'd have thought. Traditionally Speakers are given peerages and sit as Crossbenchers, but is there any reason to believe Bercow would want to sit as a Crossbencher? He's no fan of slavishly following precedent after all.

    But it's no point indulging revenge upon him. It looks ill even if justified, and sooner or later the other lot will get in and presumably give him a peerage anyway.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    I thought at one point we'd definitely need at least one of a party VONC in May, a Government VONC, a May resignation, a General Election, a Government of National Unity, or a second referendum to finally resolve Brexit.

    I'm starting to think we might ultimately need ALL of them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,736
    Scott_P said:

    No, if you take a moment to look at the details of what happened in Ireland instead of spouting knee-jerk nonsense then you would know that the citizen assembly in Ireland considered all the different "flavours" of allowing abortion (if at all) - what would be the time limit? Would it be on demand, or would it need two doctors to certify a medical imperative as in Britain and so on.

    The proposal that they brought forward was said to have surprised people and it was their compromise that won support in the subsequent referendum.

    OK, fancy a wager?

    If we get a citizens assembly to ponder Brexit, and they come up with a "solution", I say it doesn't get implemented.
    If it were tasked with coming up with two alternatives, they're quite likely to be either fully in or fully out.
  • Scott_P said:
    I'm sure the two women injured in the collision think he's a legend too.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Scott_P said:

    No, if you take a moment to look at the details of what happened in Ireland instead of spouting knee-jerk nonsense then you would know that the citizen assembly in Ireland considered all the different "flavours" of allowing abortion (if at all) - what would be the time limit? Would it be on demand, or would it need two doctors to certify a medical imperative as in Britain and so on.

    The proposal that they brought forward was said to have surprised people and it was their compromise that won support in the subsequent referendum.

    OK, fancy a wager?

    If we get a citizens assembly to ponder Brexit, and they come up with a "solution", I say it doesn't get implemented.
    That is an entirely separate question.

    Will you admit that your knee-jerk objection was wrongheaded?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leavers are increasingly laid back.

    ROFLMAO
    He’s excelled himself with that one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    They assume they can wind down the clock. It's not impossible, but yes they have overestimated it. They wanted proper Brexit or no Brexit, well they've succeeded at narrowing it down to those choices at least.

    In an anecdote alert I did encounter, to my knowledge, the first person I know who voted remain but is so sick of it all they say they'd prefer no deal to remain. Outnumbered by others who voted leave and would rather remain than no deal, but hey ho.
  • RobD said:
    The 2 women, not so much.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure the two women injured in the collision think he's a legend too.
    Depends whose fault it was. If I caused an accident and the the other person flipped and was unhurt I'd be impressed. Do we know whose fault it was?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited January 2019

    Scott_P said:
    1 it’s not particularly likely that Theresa May will be Prime Minister when John Bercow stands down as an MP.

    Dunno. We keep thinking she's done for but in the end, through every storm and crisis The Good Ship May Just Sails On Serenely...

    She's a bit like Gloria Gaynor. :D
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure the two women injured in the collision think he's a legend too.
    Looks like classic right turn across traffic side impact to me.

    Is that right?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Scott_P said:

    No, if you take a moment to look at the details of what happened in Ireland instead of spouting knee-jerk nonsense then you would know that the citizen assembly in Ireland considered all the different "flavours" of allowing abortion (if at all) - what would be the time limit? Would it be on demand, or would it need two doctors to certify a medical imperative as in Britain and so on.

    The proposal that they brought forward was said to have surprised people and it was their compromise that won support in the subsequent referendum.

    OK, fancy a wager?

    If we get a citizens assembly to ponder Brexit, and they come up with a "solution", I say it doesn't get implemented.
    If it were tasked with coming up with two alternatives, they're quite likely to be either fully in or fully out.
    That's certainly a plausible outcome, but is rather predicated on asking them to come up with two options in the first place. And in any case the Irish experience was that the answer they came up with was surprising.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,285
    edited January 2019
    Floater said:

    Nigelb said:

    We now have the spectacle of both front benches clearly opposing a second referendum, which is apparently desired by a significant majority of the electorate - an overwhelming majority in the case of Labour voters...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/corbyn-could-face-string-of-resignations-if-he-backs-peoples-vote
    In a further development, a poll conducted by YouGov of more than 1,000 voters on Wednesday found 56% would now vote to stay in the EU, against 44% who want to leave.

    Exactly the same proportion of voters said they wanted a second EU referendum – three points higher than recorded in a similar poll before Christmas. Backing for a so-called people’s vote among Labour supporters stood at 78%.

    The remain lead was extended further when respondents were asked to compare it to May’s withdrawal agreement or the option of leaving the EU without a deal.

    Against the prime minister’s deal, remain led by 65% to 35%, while against no-deal was 59% to 41% in favour of staying in the EU....

    On the other hand

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/17/clear-majority-support-respecting-referendum-result/
    Fair point, but the question ‘should we respect...’ was somewhat leading.

    And other questions in that poll indicate a majority in favour of remain, and believing the referendum a mistake...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That is an entirely separate question.

    Will you admit that your knee-jerk objection was wrongheaded?

    No. I don't think the Ireland example is applicable to Brexit. You appear to agree
  • NEW THREAD

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Scott_P said:

    Germany’s love letter to Britain up top is hackneyed but sweet. Of course, the raging europhobes on here will mock it, as they turn their backs.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    Chris said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chances of a GE before 29th March: 0%.
    Chances of another referendum before 29th March: 0%.

    So it's either extend the negotiation period, revoke A50, or No Deal.

    Or Deal.
    What deal can she conceivably get done by 29 March that will satisfy the house?

    Let’s say for the sake of argument that she goes to Brussels, Brussels blinks and the backstop is removed or made terminable unilaterally. That might ... might... just get the DUP on board with a bit of cadjoling, but will that satisfy the ERG? Concerns about the deal extend beyond the backstop. Meanwhile Soubry and Co will probably still be opposed and so too will the “this deal makes us worse off” crowd on the Tory and labour benches. Forget getting the other opposition parties on board.

    The only deal that can pass the House is an official government policy, endorsed by Labour. It's as simple as that.

    Getting a nod and a wink, a "we don't mind if some of our MPs vote the other way" isn't enough, given the scale of the defeat.
    Thus if both May and Corbyn continue to dig their heels in, then we need to know if procedural avenues will be opened that allow backbenchers to timetable legislation without Government support. If so, then the Remain/Soft Brexit majority might possibly be able thrash out a settlement between them.

    Failing that, I can only see three ways left to avoid No Deal

    (1) Opposition MPs cave en masse and back the Deal, for want of any alternative
    (2) Tory Hard Remainers cross the floor and put a Labour PM (almost certainly Corbyn) into bat, who could then plausibly ask for an extension to negotiate Andrex Soft Brexit and/or hold a second referendum
    (3) Broad political realignment: centre-left and centre-right breakaway parties form GNU then request extension as per option 2, or possibly revoke
    Theresa May offers a referendum on her Deal versus Remain. Even Jeremy Corbyn can't turn that down. Theresa May has to not care whether it's Deal or Remain but she might win it. Despite voting Remain, I'm not massively keen on a second referendum, but that's the only way I can see our of the mess, barring finding some route to limbo and the never-never. I can't stress enough: No Deal will be bad for everyone, especially the Conservative party, if Mrs May ever lets that happen.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure the two women injured in the collision think he's a legend too.
    Indeed. The royalist sycophants enjoying their evening.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Theresa was willing to let Brexiteer after Brexiteer walk from her government. If Remainers are flouncing out she can always fill those jobs with Brexiteers...

    Maybe we'll finally get the government we should have had all the way along?
    She should just fire them. Clear out time.
    Drain the swamp?
This discussion has been closed.