politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s a second referendum then LEAVE’s “Tell them Again”
Comments
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You tell me then I bet you'll be wrong.Nigelb said:
...and no need for us to guess which leave faction you belong to.Philip_Thompson said:
So your three options areFF43 said:
Me too. No Deal is irresponsible in any shape or form. May's Deal has been clobbered in parliament because almost no-one voted for it at the time of the referendum. Which leaves three options I think:Nigelb said:
I'm coming round to the idea.TOPPING said:
The only possible option would be May's Deal vs Remain. The former is leaving, the latter staying. Anything else would cause more confusion than we have today which would be A LOT of confusion.
I don't particularly like it - but I can't see many alternatives which I dislike less.
1. Revoke Article 50 and set up a commission to work out ways forward. This would be sensible policy option in situations where you need a rethink, but the politics is dire.
2. Rework May's Deal into something acceptable to at least half of MPs, which probably means SM+CU. This has some merit because that's the likely direction of travel after leaving anyway. It doesn't feel good though because you are focusing on what gets through the process rather than on the intrinsic merit of the solution.
3. Accept that the population narrowly voted to leave the European Union and also that no good way of doing so has been found. So you go back to ask the people do you wish to go ahead anyway? The fact it's divisive is actually an argument for a referendum. Given you are going to piss off half the population, it's best to piss them off democratically. And this route is clear cut. May's Deal or Remain. No further discussions required (until we leave the EU in the case of May's Deal).
1. Remain
2. Remain in all but name.
3. Try and get public to vote Remain this time.
Let me take one guess how you voted in 2016 ...0 -
And by the way I don't accept that Vassal State or Common Market 2.0, or whatever spin you want to put on it, is actually Remain in Name Only. The point of membership is that you get a say and are part of something.Philip_Thompson said:
So your three options areFF43 said:
Me too. No Deal is irresponsible in any shape or form. May's Deal has been clobbered in parliament because almost no-one voted for it at the time of the referendum. Which leaves three options I think:Nigelb said:
I'm coming round to the idea.TOPPING said:
The only possible option would be May's Deal vs Remain. The former is leaving, the latter staying. Anything else would cause more confusion than we have today which would be A LOT of confusion.
I don't particularly like it - but I can't see many alternatives which I dislike less.
1. Revoke Article 50 and set up a commission to work out ways forward. This would be sensible policy option in situations where you need a rethink, but the politics is dire.
2. Rework May's Deal into something acceptable to at least half of MPs, which probably means SM+CU. This has some merit because that's the likely direction of travel after leaving anyway. It doesn't feel good though because you are focusing on what gets through the process rather than on the intrinsic merit of the solution.
3. Accept that the population narrowly voted to leave the European Union and also that no good way of doing so has been found. So you go back to ask the people do you wish to go ahead anyway? The fact it's divisive is actually an argument for a referendum. Given you are going to piss off half the population, it's best to piss them off democratically. And this route is clear cut. May's Deal or Remain. No further discussions required (until we leave the EU in the case of May's Deal).
1. Remain
2. Remain in all but name.
3. Try and get public to vote Remain this time.
Let me take one guess how you voted in 2016 ...0 -
If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
I'm not disputing any of that. Some of the options I give are end states, some are options to head in a direction to determine between or try and find other end states (e.g. referendum, further negotiation), with the dependencies stated explicitly. Some in parliament would like a Norway like deal, for example. That is not a currently available end state, but attempting the process of bringing it onboard as an end state is a viable next action that MPs could direct on, as are various referendum options. If the EU won't extend to allow a given option, then that option collapses and Parliament reviews again until actual end state is reached.eek said:
Sorry but seek an extension is a wish - As I really can't see the EU offering it.Pro_Rata said:
This also plays in a loop until the wishes collapse and only actual options are left, indeed separating the wishes from the options is part of the necessary process.
Now you can list a set of options for the eventual end state and even the we can't make a decision so lets split the country permanently in half with another referendum option but seek an extension isn't part of any of those end states.
Then once you've decided on the end state that Parliament wants you can then work out how on earth you get there. As I suspect the only way you get an extension is to walk in with a notice to Revoke and ask very politely...0 -
Campaign to Remain says If a specific Leave plan wins, we leave on the basis of that plan. So that plan will have to be on the ballot, I suppose.0
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Good for them. If May has to be dragged screaming to face the reality of the situation, so be it.logical_song said:0 -
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
And a GE is the last thing we need right now, resolving nothing.tpfkar said:Barnesian said:
I don't think that follows. Remain voters want a second referendum and see Corbyn as deliberating frustrating that with his threats of continuing VONCs. If Cable can stop the games playing and wasting of valuable parliamentary time, he'll be applauded by Remainers.justin124 said:
Not likely to endear the LibDems to Remain voters - particularly as they have been pressing for such a vote!rottenborough said:
Nah - might have been true had the Lib Dems not supported the first motion of no confidence, or the DUP reversed position.justin124 said:
It has done no such thing. It would help Labour in places like Sheffield Hallam to table a VONC with the LibDems supporting the Tories or abstaining. LibDems are also at serious risk of losing or being denied anti-Tory tactical votes in seats already held or targetted.eek said:
Well that's an attack. It has however removed the threat of a no confidence vote on January 30th so we should be thankful for small mercies...Scott_P said:
Actually putting the pressure on Corbyn to follow his own party policy will be very useful both to get a result, and to campaign against Corbyn, whose ratings are going down fast0 -
Never mind foodbanks, the US federal partial shutdown could affect the Superbowl:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/425772-georgia-senator-concerned-shutdown-could-affect-super-bowl
Trump's ratings have taken a hit over the last month. These sort of unintended consequences are not going to help him.0 -
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.0
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No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown0 -
Welcome - from what I have seen the attacks in general pick up on Corbyn mainly because any competent LOTO would be streets ahead in a situation as this. Any competent leader would have already removed her. Corbyn’s leadership ratings are going down AGAINST the prime minister with the biggest parliamentary defeat in history.DrCanard said:I have noticed on here that whenever the Tories have a turned in another disastrous shocker, the PBT attacks on Corbyn go from merely sedately constant to absolute rabid fever pitch. It is fascinating to watch the correlation.
Take today Corbyn is playing politics with the no deal stipulation. He knows that May can’t formally do this without splitting her own party asunder. As a political trap it is inept but particularly when you see the types of people he has had dialogue with in the past in the name of consensus building.0 -
The Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport is a shit show at the best of times.david_herdson said:Never mind foodbanks, the US federal partial shutdown could affect the Superbowl:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/425772-georgia-senator-concerned-shutdown-could-affect-super-bowl
Trump's ratings have taken a hit over the last month. These sort of unintended consequences are not going to help him.0 -
I can see things getting nastier still, once the recession hits.GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.0 -
Despite the noise, discussions in fact do seem to have started. The despair can be overdone.0
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Why do people assume that at eighteen your opinions are fixed for life? Apart from Jezza, there's few who don't mature. Polly could be an exception too.
Edit:
I was a Labour voter at eighteen, moved to the LDs in my forties, and now I'm homeless. I was in favour of the Common market at twenty-five, and in my early sixties I finally saw sense.0 -
cyclically we are due one.Foxy said:
I can see things getting nastier still, once the recession hits.GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.0 -
Minus Jezza of course...good job he is a nobody backbencher, oh wait.AlastairMeeks said:Despite the noise, discussions in fact do seem to have started. The despair can be overdone.
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Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.Alanbrooke said:
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown0 -
as my post said, it isnt going to happen :-)TOPPING said:
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.Alanbrooke said:
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown0 -
Agreed. We've seen nothing yet. June 2016 was an inflection point in these island's history and this is just the begining.Foxy said:
I can see things getting nastier still, once the recession hits.GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.0 -
That's remarkable given that JRM studied Modern History at Oxford - I await TSE's comment on the quality of that university's History Department.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
So it would be worse than Remain? Basically Remain minus [voting privileges]FF43 said:
And by the way I don't accept that Vassal State or Common Market 2.0, or whatever spin you want to put on it, is actually Remain in Name Only. The point of membership is that you get a say and are part of something.Philip_Thompson said:
So your three options areFF43 said:
Me too. No Deal is irresponsible in any shape or form. May's Deal has been clobbered in parliament because almost no-one voted for it at the time of the referendum. Which leaves three options I think:Nigelb said:
I'm coming round to the idea.TOPPING said:
The only possible option would be May's Deal vs Remain. The former is leaving, the latter staying. Anything else would cause more confusion than we have today which would be A LOT of confusion.
I don't particularly like it - but I can't see many alternatives which I dislike less.
1. Revoke Article 50 and set up a commission to work out ways forward. This would be sensible policy option in situations where you need a rethink, but the politics is dire.
2. Rework May's Deal into something acceptable to at least half of MPs, which probably means SM+CU. This has some merit because that's the likely direction of travel after leaving anyway. It doesn't feel good though because you are focusing on what gets through the process rather than on the intrinsic merit of the solution.
3. Accept that the population narrowly voted to leave the European Union and also that no good way of doing so has been found. So you go back to ask the people do you wish to go ahead anyway? The fact it's divisive is actually an argument for a referendum. Given you are going to piss off half the population, it's best to piss them off democratically. And this route is clear cut. May's Deal or Remain. No further discussions required (until we leave the EU in the case of May's Deal).
1. Remain
2. Remain in all but name.
3. Try and get public to vote Remain this time.
Let me take one guess how you voted in 2016 ...0 -
I think Mike's experience and assumptions apply to a good proportion of both Leavers and Remainers - say (shrugs) 50-70 per cent of the electorate. They have a settled will, and although many won't be as dogmatic about it as Rees-Mogg or Soubry, have no intention of changing their minds. But even at the upper end of my total guess - indeed even if it were 90 per cent - there's room for a changed result in Ref2 from a few % of waverers
While I understand misgivings around the complexity of a three-option/two question/AV vote, it seems to me the one least likely to rip the Tories apart. If those unwilling to countenance No Deal or Remain don't have the confidence that either of *two* alternatives could beat their least favoured option, perhaps their position isn't as strong as they thought. I guess the suspicion is the EU wouldn't extend A50 for that?
Although I think there's a decent argument for a confirmatory vote on the detail two years on, and a decent argument to exclude No Deal, I can see why those are politically dangerous.
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Are older voters saying that? Well maybe some are... But then you get all sorts of people saying all sorts of things.Nigel_Foremain said:
It is quite a nasty post. It is a great sadness, however, that another big downside to this whole unnecessary nonsense is that it has the older generation, of which I am almost part, saying to the younger, "fuck what you want, we want to exercise our rights to be prejudiced against the foreigners"GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
In the end all older voters have done is vote for what they thought was the right thing after Cameron, the government and the UK Parliament gave them that opportunity.
The fact a lot (but by no means all) of them happened to vote leave and be on the winning side doesn't mean they should then be subjected to the kind of abuse Remainers like Polly Toynbee are subjecting them to.
And where does this end? Maybe the next referendum should stop anyone over the age of 70 or 75 from voting in it at all?
How about IQ tests at polling stations and people who fail aren't allowed to vote?
And while we're at it the Tories could ban people on benefits from voting too...0 -
Any Brexit is worse than Remain. It just makes some people feel better. That much has been obvious from the beginning.Philip_Thompson said:
So it would be worse than Remain? Basically Remain minus [voting privileges]FF43 said:
And by the way I don't accept that Vassal State or Common Market 2.0, or whatever spin you want to put on it, is actually Remain in Name Only. The point of membership is that you get a say and are part of something.Philip_Thompson said:
So your three options areFF43 said:
Me too. No Deal is irresponsible in any shape or form. May's Deal has been clobbered in parliament because almost no-one voted for it at the time of the referendum. Which leaves three options I think:Nigelb said:
I'm coming round to the idea.TOPPING said:
The only possible option would be May's Deal vs Remain. The former is leaving, the latter staying. Anything else would cause more confusion than we have today which would be A LOT of confusion.
I don't particularly like it - but I can't see many alternatives which I dislike less.
1. Revoke Article 50 and set up a commission to work out ways forward. This would be sensible policy option in situations where you need a rethink, but the politics is dire.
2. Rework May's Deal into something acceptable to at least half of MPs, which probably means SM+CU. This has some merit because that's the likely direction of travel after leaving anyway. It doesn't feel good though because you are focusing on what gets through the process rather than on the intrinsic merit of the solution.
3. Accept that the population narrowly voted to leave the European Union and also that no good way of doing so has been found. So you go back to ask the people do you wish to go ahead anyway? The fact it's divisive is actually an argument for a referendum. Given you are going to piss off half the population, it's best to piss them off democratically. And this route is clear cut. May's Deal or Remain. No further discussions required (until we leave the EU in the case of May's Deal).
1. Remain
2. Remain in all but name.
3. Try and get public to vote Remain this time.
Let me take one guess how you voted in 2016 ...0 -
Sounds like you should leave the tennis club then and seek out golf club membership instead.TOPPING said:
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.Alanbrooke said:
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
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Just because JRM talks in a slow strangulated voice, don't make the mistake of assuming that he's intelligent. He's not. Quite a lot of what he says is utter nonsense.eek said:
That's remarkable given that JRM studied Modern History at Oxford - I await TSE's comment on the quality of that university's History Department.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
As for Oxford, I have met lots of Oxbridge graduates in the City, have interviewed a fair number of them and have rarely been particularly impressed with any of them. Most people in public life have little understanding of what has happened in the last 10 years let along any proper history, whatever their degree might say.0 -
Someone has created this so that you can celebrate elderly Leavers dying in real time:GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
https://deatherendum.co.uk/
Lovely, isn't it?
Well quite. In their desperation to achieve a Remain outcome, the Liberal Democrats are playing into Corbyn's hands. He wants to avoid as much responsibility for the outcome of Brexit as possible - and he certainly doesn't want to be anywhere near power before it is resolved - and now he and all the rest of his party have a fresh opportunity to drag up the legacy of the Coalition and accuse the Lib Dems of willingly propping up the Tories again.Cyclefree said:
He's thinking of 2022. If beforehand doesn't work. Endless campaigning below the radar in lots of marginal seats. It's clever politics. Corbyn, loathsome as he and his politics beliefs are, should never be underestimated. Too many are doing just that.rottenborough said:
First he needs to win a no confidence and the LibDems have just walked from his little scheme.Cyclefree said:DanSmith said:
Above and beyond the call of duty !FrancisUrquhart said:
Dawn Butler felt the need to tug him offScott_P said:
Corbyn is campaigning for the next election and, given how marginal Hastings is, he’s being very canny.
The optics of refusing to no confidence a Conservative Government are very difficult for all smaller parties in the Commons (other, obviously, than the DUP, whose circumstances are exceptional.) It invites the immediate accusation from Labour that they're helping to keep Theresa May in office, and are therefore condoning and facilitating Tory policy.0 -
This would certainly help explain why both major parties are unwilling to support a second referendum. The trouble unfortunately is that there is a plan for leaving, of the many alternatives mooted, that commands sufficient support to see it passed. That’s not a good reason to remain in the EU by default but it could easily happen because most MPs are Remain supporters.
The fact that the EU won’t discuss trade in a meaningful manner until they have us trapped in the Withdrawal Act from which we can’t escape without being trapped into signing up to all EU laws says a lot about the EU and why we are right to leave.
The attitude of the EU and the woeful shortcomings of our MPs, on both sides of the debate, make it a seemingly binary choice - no deal or Remain. I am not sure most people would choose to Leave on that basis.0 -
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.TOPPING said:
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.Alanbrooke said:
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown0 -
to paraphrase Al: "I would happily stay at my tennis club if they definitively stopped playing tennis and started playing golf".Philip_Thompson said:
Sounds like you should leave the tennis club then and seek out golf club membership instead.TOPPING said:
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.Alanbrooke said:
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown0 -
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
The LibDems remain very vulnerable to the 'Tories'Little Helpers' charge , and is one of the reasons they have failed to make progress. Seats such as East Dunbartonshire- Sutton Carshalton - Twickenham - Kingston & Surbiton - Bath could easily be lost if that label sticks firmly again.Target seats such as Richmond and St Ives would also be at risk.Yellow_Submarine said:I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.
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But he told the wife they could still play tennis.Philip_Thompson said:Sounds like you should leave the tennis club then and seek out golf club membership instead.
Getting the club to change would be the easiest deal in history.
They need us more than we need them...0 -
Thats utterly disgustingBlack_Rook said:
Someone has created this so that you can celebrate elderly Leavers dying in real time:GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
https://deatherendum.co.uk/
Lovely, isn't it?
Well quite. In their desperation to achieve a Remain outcome, the Liberal Democrats are playing into Corbyn's hands. He wants to avoid as much responsibility for the outcome of Brexit as possible - and he certainly doesn't want to be anywhere near power before it is resolved - and now he and all the rest of his party have a fresh opportunity to drag up the legacy of the Coalition and accuse the Lib Dems of willingly propping up the Tories again.Cyclefree said:
He's thinking of 2022. If beforehand doesn't work. Endless campaigning below the radar in lots of marginal seats. It's clever politics. Corbyn, loathsome as he and his politics beliefs are, should never be underestimated. Too many are doing just that.rottenborough said:
First he needs to win a no confidence and the LibDems have just walked from his little scheme.Cyclefree said:DanSmith said:
Above and beyond the call of duty !FrancisUrquhart said:
Dawn Butler felt the need to tug him offScott_P said:
Corbyn is campaigning for the next election and, given how marginal Hastings is, he’s being very canny.
The optics of refusing to no confidence a Conservative Government are very difficult for all smaller parties in the Commons (other, obviously, than the DUP, whose circumstances are exceptional.) It invites the immediate accusation from Labour that they're helping to keep Theresa May in office, and are therefore condoning and facilitating Tory policy.0 -
I'm sure I read somewhere that if only 600,000 people had voted Remain instead of Leave, Remain would have won.
I know of a few people who have changed their minds and would now vote Remain. I don't think it is at all a slam dunk that Leave would still win were there to be another referendum.0 -
We've sometimes speculated about the impact of the weather on general elections and other public votes - but might it soon affect the votes of MPs?
Following on from the sudden stratospheric warming that I previously mentioned, the Met Office is now forecasting that the weather may turn very cold by the end of January. There might even be snow at Westminster.
Might this accentuate the feeling of impending crisis? Could it concentrate minds? Might it leave some MPs stranded in their constituencies?
MPs are, after all, only human* and they feel the cold just like the rest of us.
* Except for those representing the lizard-people who, being cold-blooded, feel the cold even more!0 -
Seems to me May's approach of actively courting support (or at least canvassing views) means that automatic opposition from smaller parties is bound to be weakened. Especially given Corbyn's own lack of vision or willingness to compromise.. I can see why the LDs and others are willing to show a bit of leg to try and get what they want from TMay.Yellow_Submarine said:I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.
That said, I have doubts that May is flexible enough (either on her own account or because she fears her own right wing) to move far enough to win their support either.0 -
Who or what is Mottram?Beverley_C said:
Mottram!Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
-
Oh, and your subs are going up to pay for a dressage facility in Estonia.notme2 said:
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.TOPPING said:
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.Alanbrooke said:
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown0 -
Are you referring to a third (or fourth, I supposed) referendum on the issue at the end there?Harris_Tweed said:I think Mike's experience and assumptions apply to a good proportion of both Leavers and Remainers - say (shrugs) 50-70 per cent of the electorate. They have a settled will, and although many won't be as dogmatic about it as Rees-Mogg or Soubry, have no intention of changing their minds. But even at the upper end of my total guess - indeed even if it were 90 per cent - there's room for a changed result in Ref2 from a few % of waverers
While I understand misgivings around the complexity of a three-option/two question/AV vote, it seems to me the one least likely to rip the Tories apart. If those unwilling to countenance No Deal or Remain don't have the confidence that either of *two* alternatives could beat their least favoured option, perhaps their position isn't as strong as they thought. I guess the suspicion is the EU wouldn't extend A50 for that?
Although I think there's a decent argument for a confirmatory vote on the detail two years on, and a decent argument to exclude No Deal, I can see why those are politically dangerous.0 -
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
For some reason Ana has decided ‘no’ - the board wouldn’t do this without her blessing. I haven’t asked her why, but it won’t be the money. As you guess, she knows the score and it was “only” $60mCyclefree said:Off topic, this - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-santander-ceo/spains-santander-drops-orcel-as-next-ceo-blames-pay-gap-idUSKCN1P92AM and this - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/orcel-offered-bonus-cut-to-save-new-job-at-santander-bhrs3pm7t are not so much First World problems as City of London problems.
Odd for the respective HR departments to mess something like this up. Or for Santander to be so surprised. They have paid the fees of banks like Merrills for years. They know the numbers. And the Chair of the UK entity is Shriti Vadera, an ex-UBS banker herself, so she will have known the score.
Maybe there is some other reason. It certainly does not help the image of the City at a time like this to have such arguments played out in public.
What’s more intriguing is why Andrea let it happen. I don’t think he cares that much about the money (I know him slightly and rate him) - he has more than enough - sonit must be something else.0 -
Benedict Cumberbatch's agent awaits the call.Scott_P said:0 -
something like 70% of the allies were ethnic german. The UK forces had Hanoverians and the Kings German Legion.Foxy said:
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
Given that state pensions are a benefit, that would be an extremely unwise strategy.GIN1138 said:
Are older voters saying that? Well maybe some are... But then you get all sorts of people saying all sorts of things.Nigel_Foremain said:
It is quite a nasty post. It is a great sadness, however, that another big downside to this whole unnecessary nonsense is that it has the older generation, of which I am almost part, saying to the younger, "fuck what you want, we want to exercise our rights to be prejudiced against the foreigners"GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
In the end all older voters have done is vote for what they thought was the right thing after Cameron, the government and the UK Parliament gave them that opportunity.
The fact a lot (but by no means all) of them happened to vote leave and be on the winning side doesn't mean they should then be subjected to the kind of abuse Remainers like Polly Toynbee are subjecting them to.
And where does this end? Maybe the next referendum should stop anyone over the age of 70 or 75 from voting in it at all?
How about IQ tests at polling stations and people who fail aren't allowed to vote?
And while we're at it the Tories could ban people on benefits from voting too...0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Has happy concord broken out?0 -
Why do Remainers want a re-run of the referendum?
Chance of Remaining without a re-run = negligible.
Chance of Remaining with a re-run = more than negligible.
0 -
Would those be discussions as in:AlastairMeeks said:Despite the noise, discussions in fact do seem to have started. The despair can be overdone.
(a) a serious attempt to reach some sort of compromise that most of us can at least learn not to hate, or
(b) having a couple of useless meetings, at the end of which everyone emerges and says everyone else isn't listening, which means I'm going to stick to my position (which is obviously 100% right and has been all along, so there)0 -
No. Next!Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Has happy concord broken out?0 -
Given Christian Bale's recent weight gain for Vice, perhaps he might fancy a go at doing Trump.DecrepitJohnL said:
Benedict Cumberbatch's agent awaits the call.Scott_P said:0 -
You are more than welcome to focus on the golf. And I noticed that your family were here the other day on the ski slopes and your nephew in particular loved the new snowboard jumps we put up. In fact it's only you who has complained. Your wife in particular, who you know loathes golf, enjoys meeting her friends in our new cafe.notme2 said:
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.TOPPING said:
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.Alanbrooke said:
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown0 -
Though the people claiming state pension would say they've paid for it through NI.dixiedean said:
Given that state pensions are a benefit, that would be an extremely unwise strategy.GIN1138 said:
Are older voters saying that? Well maybe some are... But then you get all sorts of people saying all sorts of things.Nigel_Foremain said:
It is quite a nasty post. It is a great sadness, however, that another big downside to this whole unnecessary nonsense is that it has the older generation, of which I am almost part, saying to the younger, "fuck what you want, we want to exercise our rights to be prejudiced against the foreigners"GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
In the end all older voters have done is vote for what they thought was the right thing after Cameron, the government and the UK Parliament gave them that opportunity.
The fact a lot (but by no means all) of them happened to vote leave and be on the winning side doesn't mean they should then be subjected to the kind of abuse Remainers like Polly Toynbee are subjecting them to.
And where does this end? Maybe the next referendum should stop anyone over the age of 70 or 75 from voting in it at all?
How about IQ tests at polling stations and people who fail aren't allowed to vote?
And while we're at it the Tories could ban people on benefits from voting too...
My late father paid NI from 1966 to 2013 and claimed just two years of it back before he died so HMG didn't do so bad out of it...0 -
Then they can bloody well pay for it themselves.TOPPING said:
You are more than welcome to focus on the golf. And I noticed that your family were here the other day on the ski slopes and your nephew in particular loved the new snowboard jumps we put up. In fact it's only you who has complained. Your wife in particular, who you know loathes golf, enjoys meeting her friends in our new cafe.notme2 said:
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.TOPPING said:
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.Alanbrooke said:
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown
0 -
R
She wasn’t that happy that so many of the newer members seem to be sleeping rough, eating the swans off the lake at hole 9 and begging outside the clubhouse though.TOPPING said:
You are more than welcome to focus on the golf. And I noticed that your family were here the other day on the ski slopes and your nephew in particular loved the new snowboard jumps we put up. In fact it's only you who has complained. Your wife in particular, who you know loathes golf, enjoys meeting her friends in our new cafe.notme2 said:
It was a golf club when you joined it, over the years it diversified into lots of other sports. The tennis pitches and ski slopes are particularly expensive. You really like the golf facilities, but rarely if ever play tennis, you don’t even know how to ski. You went round the other members and asked if they terribly minded if we focussed more on the golf which you really like. They said that their club was an all round club now for many different sports, and if you don’t like them all, tough.TOPPING said:
Ah sorry I misunderstood you. I had the same problem with the tennis club I've been a member of for 45 years. I wanted it from now on to play only golf. The bastards refused.Alanbrooke said:
No a document fromthe other side saying theyve given up on the whole idea and are taking a new approach.TOPPING said:
You mean like a document which excluded us from ever closer union? Something like that?Alanbrooke said:On topic
I would happily switch from Leave to Remain if the EU definitively stopped the ever closer union drive and put the commission firmly under the control of the parliament rather than ploughing its own ideological furlough
cant see it happening though
British politicians just arent credible as the last 40 years has shown0 -
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1085857549818114051
The mind boggles:
"u ok m8?"
"atm. wya?"
"chillin. any prog?"
"n. corbz- lol!"
"yeah. lmao. ttyl"0 -
You can claim whatever you like. State pensions are a benefit. So is Working Tax Credit, and indeed Child Benefit. Defined in Law. People on benefits are almost everyone.GIN1138 said:
Though the people claiming state pension would say they've paid for it through NI.dixiedean said:
Given that state pensions are a benefit, that would be an extremely unwise strategy.GIN1138 said:
Are older voters saying that? Well maybe some are... But then you get all sorts of people saying all sorts of things.Nigel_Foremain said:
It is quite a nasty post. It is a great sadness, however, that another big downside to this whole unnecessary nonsense is that it has the older generation, of which I am almost part, saying to the younger, "fuck what you want, we want to exercise our rights to be prejudiced against the foreigners"GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
In the end all older voters have done is vote for what they thought was the right thing after Cameron, the government and the UK Parliament gave them that opportunity.
The fact a lot (but by no means all) of them happened to vote leave and be on the winning side doesn't mean they should then be subjected to the kind of abuse Remainers like Polly Toynbee are subjecting them to.
And where does this end? Maybe the next referendum should stop anyone over the age of 70 or 75 from voting in it at all?
How about IQ tests at polling stations and people who fail aren't allowed to vote?
And while we're at it the Tories could ban people on benefits from voting too...
My late father paid NI from 1966 to 2013 and claimed just two years of it back before he died so HMG didn't do so bad out of it...0 -
That's my reading. I think this is not about the money but something else. I know him quite well and rate him too.Charles said:
For some reason Ana has decided ‘no’ - the board wouldn’t do this without her blessing. I haven’t asked her why, but it won’t be the money. As you guess, she knows the score and it was “only” $60mCyclefree said:Off topic, this - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-santander-ceo/spains-santander-drops-orcel-as-next-ceo-blames-pay-gap-idUSKCN1P92AM and this - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/orcel-offered-bonus-cut-to-save-new-job-at-santander-bhrs3pm7t are not so much First World problems as City of London problems.
Odd for the respective HR departments to mess something like this up. Or for Santander to be so surprised. They have paid the fees of banks like Merrills for years. They know the numbers. And the Chair of the UK entity is Shriti Vadera, an ex-UBS banker herself, so she will have known the score.
Maybe there is some other reason. It certainly does not help the image of the City at a time like this to have such arguments played out in public.
What’s more intriguing is why Andrea let it happen. I don’t think he cares that much about the money (I know him slightly and rate him) - he has more than enough - sonit must be something else.
What I find puzzling is why this has been allowed to come out in public. Not least because Andrea has been very close indeed to the Botin family since Merrills days- and not just on a work level. A statement that the appointment was not going ahead because of personal reasons would have sufficed.0 -
Yeah, it is pretty bad, but unfortunately that's where we are at the extreme edges of the debate. For example, treason accusations from one band of maniacs, lauding the demise of pensioners from the other.Slackbladder said:
Thats utterly disgustingBlack_Rook said:
Someone has created this so that you can celebrate elderly Leavers dying in real time:GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.
https://deatherendum.co.uk/
Lovely, isn't it?
Well quite. In their desperation to achieve a Remain outcome, the Liberal Democrats are playing into Corbyn's hands. He wants to avoid as much responsibility for the outcome of Brexit as possible - and he certainly doesn't want to be anywhere near power before it is resolved - and now he and all the rest of his party have a fresh opportunity to drag up the legacy of the Coalition and accuse the Lib Dems of willingly propping up the Tories again.Cyclefree said:
He's thinking of 2022. If beforehand doesn't work. Endless campaigning below the radar in lots of marginal seats. It's clever politics. Corbyn, loathsome as he and his politics beliefs are, should never be underestimated. Too many are doing just that.rottenborough said:
First he needs to win a no confidence and the LibDems have just walked from his little scheme.Cyclefree said:DanSmith said:
Above and beyond the call of duty !FrancisUrquhart said:
Dawn Butler felt the need to tug him offScott_P said:
Corbyn is campaigning for the next election and, given how marginal Hastings is, he’s being very canny.
The optics of refusing to no confidence a Conservative Government are very difficult for all smaller parties in the Commons (other, obviously, than the DUP, whose circumstances are exceptional.) It invites the immediate accusation from Labour that they're helping to keep Theresa May in office, and are therefore condoning and facilitating Tory policy.
I'm not sure if it's a case of society getting coarser and more polarised, or of anti-social media pouring kerosene on the fire. Most likely one feeding off the other.0 -
I'd recommend Bernard Cornwell's account of the Battle of Waterloo. I've never read anything that explains it all so clearly.Foxy said:
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
Unlike a lot of British authors, he doesn't underrate Napoleon. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Napoleon won three out of the four battles of the campaign, and only lost the last by a hairs-breadth. His mistakes (and Wellington's and Blucher's) were down to the lack of information caused by the primitive communications of the time.0 -
I also think it far from assured that remain would win a second vote. However that’s almost beside the point. If you want to remain you don’t really have any other option bar a unilateral revocation, which would almost surely lead to a referendum anyway at some point - even the EU puts things to second referendums rather than ignoring results entirely (for the most part).
So in terms of an indefinite remain, it doesn’t matter that remain may well lose again, it’s still worth the risk for people’s vote supporters.
I can only see Norway or May’s deal VS remain making it onto a ballot paper. Hard to see enough MPs wanting to put No Deal on - neither the government nor most backbencher.
I’m increasingly wondering if we will simply end up in a never ending Transition period or A50 Extension peior, a bit like the reverse of Turkey’s 50 years of almost being an EU member.0 -
You forget the Irish.Alanbrooke said:
something like 70% of the allies were ethnic german. The UK forces had Hanoverians and the Kings German Legion.Foxy said:
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
How quickly you forget that when you first joined you turned up in tatty hand-me downs, hadn't washed for two weeks, and had to borrow your kit from that Golf place in Washington (Lincs).notme2 said:She wasn’t that happy that so many of the newer members seem to be sleeping rough, eating the swans off the lake at hole 9 and begging outside the clubhouse though.
0 -
Richard my eyes hurtRichard_Nabavi said:https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1085857549818114051
The mind boggles:
"u ok m8?"
"atm. wya?"
"chillin. any prog?"
"n. corbz- lol!"
"yeah. lmao. ttyl"0 -
One of the odd* things about Brexit is that I'm not sure most people - even most non-Tories - see a general election this side of it being sorted^ as desirable. Given which, tarting themselves around for the best deliverable outcome may be excused.justin124 said:
The LibDems remain very vulnerable to the 'Tories'Little Helpers' charge , and is one of the reasons they have failed to make progress. Seats such as East Dunbartonshire- Sutton Carshalton - Twickenham - Kingston & Surbiton - Bath could easily be lost if that label sticks firmly again.Target seats such as Richmond and St Ives would also be at risk.Yellow_Submarine said:I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.
*Odd because it's a hugely divisive issue; at the same time understandable because what alternatives are on offer? And "this is more important".
^Clearly not sorted. Shorthand for "working out WTF we're doing on Mar 29"0 -
try Peter Hofschoer 1815 the German VictorySean_F said:
I'd recommend Bernard Cornwell's account of the Battle of Waterloo. I've never read anything that explains it all so clearly.Foxy said:
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
Unlike a lot of British authors, he doesn't underrate Napoleon. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Napoleon won three out of the four battles of the campaign, and only lost the last by a hairs-breadth. His mistakes (and Wellington's and Blucher's) were down to the lack of information caused by the primitive communications of the time.
Like Foxy I admire this pinnacle of inter European cooperation ruined only by the French being on the other side :-)
0 -
0
-
Polly knows what she needs to do then.GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.0 -
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Very well worth reading.
Excoriating and utterly true.
I love this line - "the British political class has offered to the world an astounding spectacle of mendacious, intellectually limited hustlers."0 -
Touché.TOPPING said:
How quickly you forget that when you first joined you turned up in tatty hand-me downs, hadn't washed for two weeks, and had to borrow your kit from that Golf place in Washington (Lincs).notme2 said:She wasn’t that happy that so many of the newer members seem to be sleeping rough, eating the swans off the lake at hole 9 and begging outside the clubhouse though.
0 -
It is piss easy to do.TheScreamingEagles said:Why the actual fucking fuck?
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/10859033680930775040 -
United. Against the French.Foxy said:
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
Yes - I think Ebeneezer Toynbeemay have over-indulged on the Chritmans Carol reurns while holed up in her Tuscan retreat over the hols.GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.0 -
I wonder how all those students who voted a Labour in the last election, bribed by the illusion of free tuition, are feeling about Corbyn refusing to take part in May’s talks. Not great I imagine.0
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On topic, I think a rerun of the Referendum would be disastrous. More poison, disagreement, and yes - a similar result. But even if Remain won 52:48, the EU as a whole has lost patience and doesn't want the risk of us pulling a stunt like this again a few years down the line. I hope they don't extend article 50 - if we won't sign up to the Deal, they just want us out.
I have this dream that we crash out, a few weeks (months?) of disruption and running around shouting 'the sky is falling in', GDP reduces by 5% or so, then amidst the wreckage and WTO tariffs we realise that our current political system isn't fit for purpose. Cross-party alliance stands on an 'upgrade' ticket where we move to a devolved federal governance model (regional parliaments) PR, and moving all the politicians out of the HoC for a symbolic and long-overdue upgrade. Then we'll see what kind of country emerges, what the EU looks like once we're gone - and whether there's any appetite to begin talks to rejoin.
It ain't gonna happen of course. But one can dream...0 -
notme2 said:
Touché.TOPPING said:
How quickly you forget that when you first joined you turned up in tatty hand-me downs, hadn't washed for two weeks, and had to borrow your kit from that Golf place in Washington (Lincs).notme2 said:She wasn’t that happy that so many of the newer members seem to be sleeping rough, eating the swans off the lake at hole 9 and begging outside the clubhouse though.
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Some interesting comments by Gina Miller (no groaning at the back, please!) here:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/17/france-triggers-50m-contingency-plan-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit
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“Tell them again” doesn’t work if people don’t think they have the option to send the same message.0
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Brothers and sistersCyclefree said:https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Very well worth reading.
Excoriating and utterly true.
I love this line - "the British political class has offered to the world an astounding spectacle of mendacious, intellectually limited hustlers."
When they insist we're just not good enough
Well we know better
Just look him in his eyes and say
We're gonna do it anyway
We're gonna do it anyway0 -
I think Germany looks like being first.Alanbrooke said:
cyclically we are due one.Foxy said:
I can see things getting nastier still, once the recession hits.GIN1138 said:
Awful! It really is hard to believe how far we've fallen!Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1085875822693634048
'The old people are dying. Rejoice!'
I never thought I'd see things become so nasty as they have done in past couple of years.0 -
It's looking more and more like the polarisation is the young despising the old (believing them rightly or wrongly having thrown away their (the young's) future and squandered resources on themselves) and the old dismissing the young as being immature and irrelevant.Black_Rook said:
Yeah, it is pretty bad, but unfortunately that's where we are at the extreme edges of the debate. For example, treason accusations from one band of maniacs, lauding the demise of pensioners from the other.
I'm not sure if it's a case of society getting coarser and more polarised, or of anti-social media pouring kerosene on the fire. Most likely one feeding off the other.
I know those drivers have always existed, but they seem far, far stronger today than ever before. If Brexit turns out to be even a quarter as badly damaging as has been feared, the attitudes will solidify into concrete: the young will regard it as vindication of their belief and won't forgive; the old will regard it as having been the right but difficult choice, damaged by a stab-in-the-back from [insert here].
And given that both "sides" had plenty who went in the other direction and would be unfairly tarnished whatever happens, resentment would only ever spread wider.0 -
Yet the £ is ticking up today. Traders clearly haven't lost their hope of a happier ending.0
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Oxford's where you end up if Cambridge won't have youCyclefree said:
Just because JRM talks in a slow strangulated voice, don't make the mistake of assuming that he's intelligent. He's not. Quite a lot of what he says is utter nonsense.eek said:
That's remarkable given that JRM studied Modern History at Oxford - I await TSE's comment on the quality of that university's History Department.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
As for Oxford, I have met lots of Oxbridge graduates in the City, have interviewed a fair number of them and have rarely been particularly impressed with any of them. Most people in public life have little understanding of what has happened in the last 10 years let along any proper history, whatever their degree might say. 0 -
how are the young planning to stay ypung ? Im afraid life only goes in one direction and age shapes your views as you go.Andy_Cooke said:
It's looking more and more like the polarisation is the young despising the old (believing them rightly or wrongly having thrown away their (the young's) future and squandered resources on themselves) and the old dismissing the young as being immature and irrelevant.Black_Rook said:
Yeah, it is pretty bad, but unfortunately that's where we are at the extreme edges of the debate. For example, treason accusations from one band of maniacs, lauding the demise of pensioners from the other.
I'm not sure if it's a case of society getting coarser and more polarised, or of anti-social media pouring kerosene on the fire. Most likely one feeding off the other.
I know those drivers have always existed, but they seem far, far stronger today than ever before. If Brexit turns out to be even a quarter as badly damaging as has been feared, the attitudes will solidify into concrete: the young will regard it as vindication of their belief and won't forgive; the old will regard it as having been the right but difficult choice, damaged by a stab-in-the-back from [insert here].
And given that both "sides" had plenty who went in the other direction and would be unfairly tarnished whatever happens, resentment would only ever spread wider.0 -
Corbyn won't talk to May unless no deal is removed. Cue outrage. Meanwhile our esteemed rogue Chancellor of the Exchequer has reassured businesses that no deal will soon be off the menu.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/17/philip-hammond-faces-cabinet-backlash-telling-business-chiefs/0 -
Don't panic Justin! Don't panic!justin124 said:
The LibDems remain very vulnerable to the 'Tories'Little Helpers' charge , and is one of the reasons they have failed to make progress. Seats such as East Dunbartonshire- Sutton Carshalton - Twickenham - Kingston & Surbiton - Bath could easily be lost if that label sticks firmly again.Target seats such as Richmond and St Ives would also be at risk.Yellow_Submarine said:I think Vince has called this correctly. They can't let Corbyn run down the clock with pointless VoNC now that the will of the Commons has been tested. Especially given Corbyn's dreadful performance yesterday. Not without something in return. If Corbyn wants pan opposition support he needs to negotiate.
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Counting both remainer and leaver deaths.Black_Rook said:https://deatherendum.co.uk/
Lovely, isn't it?
It's actually quite clever. It deducts and adds to each demographic age group, for both leavers and remainers, based on the 2016 vote split.0 -
Are you suggesting another such alliance to destroy Macron? All it takes is a few Hi-viz coats - no biggie!Foxy said:
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.0 -
Unless he intentionally doesn't want the reason to be personal reasons (for say personal reasons)...Cyclefree said:
That's my reading. I think this is not about the money but something else. I know him quite well and rate him too.Charles said:
For some reason Ana has decided ‘no’ - the board wouldn’t do this without her blessing. I haven’t asked her why, but it won’t be the money. As you guess, she knows the score and it was “only” $60mCyclefree said:Off topic, this - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-santander-ceo/spains-santander-drops-orcel-as-next-ceo-blames-pay-gap-idUSKCN1P92AM and this - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/orcel-offered-bonus-cut-to-save-new-job-at-santander-bhrs3pm7t are not so much First World problems as City of London problems.
Odd for the respective HR departments to mess something like this up. Or for Santander to be so surprised. They have paid the fees of banks like Merrills for years. They know the numbers. And the Chair of the UK entity is Shriti Vadera, an ex-UBS banker herself, so she will have known the score.
Maybe there is some other reason. It certainly does not help the image of the City at a time like this to have such arguments played out in public.
What’s more intriguing is why Andrea let it happen. I don’t think he cares that much about the money (I know him slightly and rate him) - he has more than enough - sonit must be something else.
What I find puzzling is why this has been allowed to come out in public. Not least because Andrea has been very close indeed to the Botin family since Merrills days- and not just on a work level. A statement that the appointment was not going ahead because of personal reasons would have sufficed.0 -
New thread.0
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I think 'Modern' merely distinguishes it from 'Ancient'.eek said:
That's remarkable given that JRM studied Modern History at Oxford - I await TSE's comment on the quality of that university's History Department.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
From Mogg's POV, post 1815 probably counts as Contemporary.
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There are cohort opinions and age opinions.Alanbrooke said:
how are the young planning to stay ypung ? Im afraid life only goes in one direction and age shapes your views as you go.Andy_Cooke said:
It's looking more and more like the polarisation is the young despising the old (believing them rightly or wrongly having thrown away their (the young's) future and squandered resources on themselves) and the old dismissing the young as being immature and irrelevant.Black_Rook said:
Yeah, it is pretty bad, but unfortunately that's where we are at the extreme edges of the debate. For example, treason accusations from one band of maniacs, lauding the demise of pensioners from the other.
I'm not sure if it's a case of society getting coarser and more polarised, or of anti-social media pouring kerosene on the fire. Most likely one feeding off the other.
I know those drivers have always existed, but they seem far, far stronger today than ever before. If Brexit turns out to be even a quarter as badly damaging as has been feared, the attitudes will solidify into concrete: the young will regard it as vindication of their belief and won't forgive; the old will regard it as having been the right but difficult choice, damaged by a stab-in-the-back from [insert here].
And given that both "sides" had plenty who went in the other direction and would be unfairly tarnished whatever happens, resentment would only ever spread wider.
Please read "Millennials and the following generation" for "the young", and "Baby boomers and the generation before" for "the old."
After all, the Baby-boomers-and-older will have ensured that the Millennials-and-younger will certainly not have similar experiences and options to themselves.
Once people have decided on a scapegoat, it's hard for their opinions to change.
(As Generation X, I'm caught in the middle here)
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Clearly taking the piss...TheScreamingEagles said:Why the actual fucking fuck?
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/10859033680930775040 -
In a little quirk of fate, that battle was quite important to my family.Sean_F said:
I'd recommend Bernard Cornwell's account of the Battle of Waterloo. I've never read anything that explains it all so clearly.Foxy said:
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
Unlike a lot of British authors, he doesn't underrate Napoleon. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Napoleon won three out of the four battles of the campaign, and only lost the last by a hairs-breadth. His mistakes (and Wellington's and Blucher's) were down to the lack of information caused by the primitive communications of the time.
An officer in the Black Watch suffered an injury in a delicate area, during the battle. This unfortunately rendered him infertile, so he doted on a small son of one of his crofters, funding his education, including Aberdeen University. He treated him like an adopted son. That boy became a Presbyterian Minister and missionary, later an author, travelling the world on his missions. The boy was the first educated boy in the family, and became head of a middle class dynasty of the manse. He was my great-grandfather.
If that shrapnel had been 12 inches higher it would have killed him, 12 inches lower, he would most likely have had his own family. How randomly our lives are sometimes determined!
I toast his memory every Burns Night.0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
wow.Foxy said:
In a little quirk of fate, that battle was quite important to my family.Sean_F said:
I'd recommend Bernard Cornwell's account of the Battle of Waterloo. I've never read anything that explains it all so clearly.Foxy said:
Waterloo being a classic of European joint military capability, Even without Blucher's Prussians. Wellingtons troops were British, Dutch, Germans and even Bourbon French cavalry, united in one command structure.Cyclefree said:
The Brexiteers - the ultras - are delusional. Their understanding of geopolitics seems stuck somewhere around 1815 shortly after the battle of Waterloo.Nigel_Foremain said:
...but surely, if the Brexiters are right, they need us more than we need them?Cyclefree said:If you listen to the WATO, you will hear what other countries think of us, and they think we are behaving in an absurd and childish and incomprehensible way. They are also saying that we are less important, both to the EU and to the rest of the world, than we think we are, that the world is not waiting for Britain to bestride the world again, that the EU has already internalised Britain's departure and the costs of its departure, just want us to get on with it and are waiting for us to make up our mind.
I suppose it's fascinating - if utterly depressing - to be in the middle of a country having a nervous breakdown.
Unlike a lot of British authors, he doesn't underrate Napoleon. Despite being hugely outnumbered, Napoleon won three out of the four battles of the campaign, and only lost the last by a hairs-breadth. His mistakes (and Wellington's and Blucher's) were down to the lack of information caused by the primitive communications of the time.
An officer in the Black Watch suffered an injury in a delicate area, during the battle. This unfortunately rendered him infertile, so he doted on a small son of one of his crofters, funding his education, including Aberdeen University. He treated him like an adopted son. That boy became a Presbyterian Minister and missionary, later an author, travelling the world on his missions. The boy was the first educated boy in the family, and became head of a middle class dynasty of the manse. He was my great-grandfather.
If that shrapnel had been 12 inches higher it would have killed him, 12 inches lower, he would most likely have had his own family. How randomly our lives are sometimes determined!
I toast his memory every Burns Night.0
