politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?
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Nancy Pelosi has disinvited Trump from giving the State of the Union speech in person whilst the goverment is shut down.
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GO? A dab hand c.f. May, no question.david_herdson said:In retrospect, Osborne. I wouldn't have said that at the time though.
But in what sense would he have done better IYO - avoided the Irish backstop in the withdrawal treaty, or just sold it better to parliament?0 -
If anyone asked "Who's dumb idea was this?" the answer would have been "The gods" and that would have been that.kle4 said:
I did. I want to know who first suggested it as a rite and how they convinced others to do it.Carolus_Rex said:
Mayan priests ingested pulque (fermented agave juice) rectally to prepare for religious rituals. Bet you always wanted to know that.Foxy said:
Rectal fluid infusion is actually very effective in terms of absorption. Indeed it has a role in battlefield resuscitation and in major injuries, when medical aid is slow to arrive. It can ameliorate hypovolemic shock.Sean_F said:
One of the most bizarre deaths I read of was that of an Australian who died of alcoholic poisoning after injecting a bottle of whisky into his recturm.grabcocque said:
Boxed wine is so much more practical at bacchanalian orgies: no bottles of red to knock flying and ruin the deep shag.Anazina said:
I have been unfairly traduced on here for admitting to keeping boxed wine on my private jet.kle4 said:
I exclusive travel in a sedan chair carried by the oppressed. And then yacht. Sure it takes longer, but whatever I am heading to can wait until I arrive.grabcocque said:
Only peasants use airplanes. I take my private blimp.Sean_F said:
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:
https://www.realfirstaid.co.uk/rectal/
I suspect the absorption of alcohol in whisky would be equally effective.0 -
Do people think there's now a significant probability of the UK leaving by 29 March with an agreed deal?Chris said:
If people are really concerned about the financial consequences of a No Deal Brexit, at least these odds provide the opportunity of a pretty efficient insurance policy.Black_Rook said:
The opposition parties in the House are all left-leaning and all fighting each other for many of the same voters. The idea that some of them would dare allow themselves to be framed as enablers of a Tory Government by the others isn't credible (after all, the Lib Dems were indeed enablers of a Tory Government a few years ago, and look what happened to them.)Scott_P said:
It's why May suggested she'd allow other parties to move a VoNC if Corbyn failed to do so, of course. She used the competition amongst all the left parties to be the most virulently anti-Tory to her advantage, to try to make sure he did what she wanted.
After all, can you imagine what would happen if, for whatever reason, the numbers on the Government side were reduced and Corbyn were to lose a VoNC that he would otherwise have won if all the other opposition MPs had gone through the lobby with him?
Has a mechanism *known to have the assent of a majority of MPs* yet been found to prevent Brexit from happening automatically on March 29th? Or does this figure merely reflect a vague assumption that the Parliamentary majority against No Deal will manage to agree on a common course of action before that point?Chris said:Betfair's implied probability of leaving on schedule now down to 15%.
There's a world of difference between MPs having identified a common aim and concurring on how to get there.0 -
Probably an ancestor of Boris Johnson.kle4 said:
I did. I want to know who first suggested it as a rite and how they convinced others to do it.Carolus_Rex said:
Mayan priests ingested pulque (fermented agave juice) rectally to prepare for religious rituals. Bet you always wanted to know that.Foxy said:
Rectal fluid infusion is actually very effective in terms of absorption. Indeed it has a role in battlefield resuscitation and in major injuries, when medical aid is slow to arrive. It can ameliorate hypovolemic shock.Sean_F said:
One of the most bizarre deaths I read of was that of an Australian who died of alcoholic poisoning after injecting a bottle of whisky into his recturm.grabcocque said:
Boxed wine is so much more practical at bacchanalian orgies: no bottles of red to knock flying and ruin the deep shag.Anazina said:
I have been unfairly traduced on here for admitting to keeping boxed wine on my private jet.kle4 said:
I exclusive travel in a sedan chair carried by the oppressed. And then yacht. Sure it takes longer, but whatever I am heading to can wait until I arrive.grabcocque said:
Only peasants use airplanes. I take my private blimp.Sean_F said:
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:
https://www.realfirstaid.co.uk/rectal/
I suspect the absorption of alcohol in whisky would be equally effective.0 -
Research... from books I hasten to add. I'm no SeanT!TOPPING said:
More pertinently, how and why on earth did you know that?Carolus_Rex said:
Mayan priests ingested pulque (fermented agave juice) rectally to prepare for religious rituals. Bet you always wanted to know that.Foxy said:
Rectal fluid infusion is actually very effective in terms of absorption. Indeed it has a role in battlefield resuscitation and in major injuries, when medical aid is slow to arrive. It can ameliorate hypovolemic shock.Sean_F said:
One of the most bizarre deaths I read of was that of an Australian who died of alcoholic poisoning after injecting a bottle of whisky into his recturm.grabcocque said:
Boxed wine is so much more practical at bacchanalian orgies: no bottles of red to knock flying and ruin the deep shag.Anazina said:
I have been unfairly traduced on here for admitting to keeping boxed wine on my private jet.kle4 said:
I exclusive travel in a sedan chair carried by the oppressed. And then yacht. Sure it takes longer, but whatever I am heading to can wait until I arrive.grabcocque said:
Only peasants use airplanes. I take my private blimp.Sean_F said:
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:
https://www.realfirstaid.co.uk/rectal/
I suspect the absorption of alcohol in whisky would be equally effective.0 -
We know exactly what Osborne would have done because he's been pushing it through the Standard for two years.
Ozzie is all aboard the Norway+ hype train.0 -
It was a factor in Corbyn consolidating the anti-Tory vote in 2017 leading to the lost majority.RobD said:
Demolishing the Lib Dems as an electoral force has worked out pretty well though.grabcocque said:Lets take a look at Cameron's big ideas see how they're going
* Brexit referendum
shit
* Universal Credit
shit
* NHS reform
shit
* Eliminating the deficit
shit0 -
This debate in Parliament is a complete waste of time. If anything demonstrates why the public has no confidence in its MPs this is it. As a matter of information can anyone please tell me whether any of the following is permitted to vote: Fiona Onasanya, Jared O Mara, Keith Vaz?0
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I don't think that necessarily follows.kinabalu said:
My understanding is that the softer Brexit involving CU, SM etc (call it BINO, or LEXIT, or Norway Plus or whatever) needs no material change to the Withdrawal Treaty. All of that stuff is about the future relationship as sketched out in the Political Declaration. So given that all the EU really care about right now is that we ratify the Treaty, the 'pivot' in that direction, if it were to command a majority in parliament, would be a slam dunk to agree with the EU.Freggles said:Can we just have customs union and workers rights alignment written into the WA and be done with it now?
So, if it happens, great. But no! Because the Treaty will still have the Backstop, and the DUP will collapse the government if it looked like being ratified. Therefore this government, and this parliament, cannot get any negotiated Brexit through, unless a Grand Unity Coalition can be formed with a suitable leader and a working majority of sufficient size to neuter the DUP.
Given that I simply cannot see this happening, I am now a big big supporter of a general election. Which helps not a jot, because my support is utterly irrelevant. The Cons can block it (with the DUP - yes it's them again) and they will block it because (i) they want to cleave to office and (ii) unlike Labour they have no coherent Brexit policy and (iii) they do not wish to fight another election under Mrs May.
Oh betty.
Parliament could pass a binding motion (Meaningful Vote 2, say), endorsing ratification subject to the UK signing up to a permanent CU with the EU. If so, the government couldn't deposit the instrument of ratification until agreement had been reached and documents signed on the CU(UK-EU), (pronounced Cuckoo). That should give the DUP reassurance that there'd be no 'NI backstop' phase that Brexit could get stuck in.0 -
Has the PM tried that line?Carolus_Rex said:
If anyone asked "Who's dumb idea was this?" the answer would have been "The gods" and that would have been that.kle4 said:
I did. I want to know who first suggested it as a rite and how they convinced others to do it.Carolus_Rex said:
Mayan priests ingested pulque (fermented agave juice) rectally to prepare for religious rituals. Bet you always wanted to know that.Foxy said:
Rectal fluid infusion is actually very effective in terms of absorption. Indeed it has a role in battlefield resuscitation and in major injuries, when medical aid is slow to arrive. It can ameliorate hypovolemic shock.Sean_F said:
One of the most bizarre deaths I read of was that of an Australian who died of alcoholic poisoning after injecting a bottle of whisky into his recturm.grabcocque said:
Boxed wine is so much more practical at bacchanalian orgies: no bottles of red to knock flying and ruin the deep shag.Anazina said:
I have been unfairly traduced on here for admitting to keeping boxed wine on my private jet.kle4 said:
I exclusive travel in a sedan chair carried by the oppressed. And then yacht. Sure it takes longer, but whatever I am heading to can wait until I arrive.grabcocque said:
Only peasants use airplanes. I take my private blimp.Sean_F said:
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:
https://www.realfirstaid.co.uk/rectal/
I suspect the absorption of alcohol in whisky would be equally effective.0 -
DUP=UKIP (but *far* better organised)justin124 said:
I am not quite so sure. The DUP - unlike the UUP - are not natural allies of the Tories and are quite left wing re- economic issues. Post 2017 election , can we be certain they would have declined the option of putting Milliband into No 10? I get the sense that the Corbyn factor has been the key to their stance.RobD said:
Probably not different at all.justin124 said:The result of today's VONC is pretty much a foregone conclusion. How different would it be - on unchanged Parliamentary arithmetic - were Ed Milliband still Leader of the Opposition?
UUP=Tories.0 -
Not impossible, but really quite unlikely.Chris said:
Do people think there's now a significant probability of the UK leaving by 29 March with an agreed deal?Chris said:
If people are really concerned about the financial consequences of a No Deal Brexit, at least these odds provide the opportunity of a pretty efficient insurance policy.Black_Rook said:
The opposition parties in the House are all left-leaning and all fighting each other for many of the same voters. The idea that some of them would dare allow themselves to be framed as enablers of a Tory Government by the others isn't credible (after all, the Lib Dems were indeed enablers of a Tory Government a few years ago, and look what happened to them.)Scott_P said:
It's why May suggested she'd allow other parties to move a VoNC if Corbyn failed to do so, of course. She used the competition amongst all the left parties to be the most virulently anti-Tory to her advantage, to try to make sure he did what she wanted.
After all, can you imagine what would happen if, for whatever reason, the numbers on the Government side were reduced and Corbyn were to lose a VoNC that he would otherwise have won if all the other opposition MPs had gone through the lobby with him?
Has a mechanism *known to have the assent of a majority of MPs* yet been found to prevent Brexit from happening automatically on March 29th? Or does this figure merely reflect a vague assumption that the Parliamentary majority against No Deal will manage to agree on a common course of action before that point?Chris said:Betfair's implied probability of leaving on schedule now down to 15%.
There's a world of difference between MPs having identified a common aim and concurring on how to get there.
I think No Deal has value*.
*From a betting perspective, not an economic one!0 -
They all voted against the deal yesterday.dyingswan said:This debate in Parliament is a complete waste of time. If anything demonstrates why the public has no confidence in its MPs this is it. As a matter of information can anyone please tell me whether any of the following is permitted to vote: Fiona Onasanya, Jared O Mara, Keith Vaz?
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*stable, sensible governmentMarqueeMark said:
* EU Renegotiationgrabcocque said:Lets take a look at Cameron's big ideas see how they're going
* Brexit referendum
shit
* Universal Credit
shit
* NHS reform
shit
* Eliminating the deficit
shit
shit
* Project Fear
shit
TICK0 -
Much to the disappointment of the Lib Dems.williamglenn said:
It was the a factor in Corbyn consolidating the anti-Tory vote in 2017 leading to the lost majority.RobD said:
Demolishing the Lib Dems as an electoral force has worked out pretty well though.grabcocque said:Lets take a look at Cameron's big ideas see how they're going
* Brexit referendum
shit
* Universal Credit
shit
* NHS reform
shit
* Eliminating the deficit
shit0 -
Nigel Dodds:
"I have been touched by how many MPs have begged me to vote for Theresa May tonight and prevent a general election. And some were even on the government side!"
Cheeky.0 -
It is Little-Piggy from the DUP.Roger said:If anyone is watching Vince Cable on TV could they tell me who the dark haired woman behind him over his left shoulder (long hair purple top 35-40 )
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But that doesn't answer why they did it in the first place, and as the countless religions of the world demonstrate, 'God wants it this way' does not stop people disagreeing.Carolus_Rex said:
If anyone asked "Who's dumb idea was this?" the answer would have been "The gods" and that would have been that.kle4 said:
I did. I want to know who first suggested it as a rite and how they convinced others to do it.Carolus_Rex said:
Mayan priests ingested pulque (fermented agave juice) rectally to prepare for religious rituals. Bet you always wanted to know that.Foxy said:
Rectal fluid infusion is actually very effective in terms of absorption. Indeed it has a role in battlefield resuscitation and in major injuries, when medical aid is slow to arrive. It can ameliorate hypovolemic shock.Sean_F said:
One of the most bizarre deaths I read of was that of an Australian who died of alcoholic poisoning after injecting a bottle of whisky into his recturm.grabcocque said:
Boxed wine is so much more practical at bacchanalian orgies: no bottles of red to knock flying and ruin the deep shag.Anazina said:
I have been unfairly traduced on here for admitting to keeping boxed wine on my private jet.kle4 said:
I exclusive travel in a sedan chair carried by the oppressed. And then yacht. Sure it takes longer, but whatever I am heading to can wait until I arrive.grabcocque said:
Only peasants use airplanes. I take my private blimp.Sean_F said:
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:
https://www.realfirstaid.co.uk/rectal/
I suspect the absorption of alcohol in whisky would be equally effective.0 -
Pengelly ?SandyRentool said:
It is Little-Piggy from the DUP.Roger said:If anyone is watching Vince Cable on TV could they tell me who the dark haired woman behind him over his left shoulder (long hair purple top 35-40 )
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0
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Top bants.grabcocque said:Nigel Dodds:
"I have been touched by how many MPs have begged me to vote for Theresa May tonight and prevent a general election. And some were even on the government side!"
Cheeky.0 -
And don't forget Project Fear. Making the Remain campaign all about negatives, rather than trying to convey a positive message about Britain's place in the EU, not only helped to lose the referendum. The failure of almost all the various calamities predicted for the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote to come to pass also means that all subsequent warnings about the horrors of No Deal have had little effect.eek said:
Eliminating the Deficit is the root cause of all the other policy failures:-grabcocque said:Lets take a look at Cameron's big ideas see how they're going
* Brexit referendum
shit
* Universal Credit
shit
* NHS reform
shit
* Eliminating the deficit
shit
Austerity meant there wasn't money to finance NHS reform, made Universal Credit an impossible task and made the referendum result a certainty...
It also means that Osbourne is as much to blame as Cameron is...
In fact, due to confirmation bias, they've simply helped to intensify divisions within both the commentariat and the wider electorate. Every fresh warning causes many confirmed Remainers to wet, whereas many confirmed Leavers offer rebuttals and laugh.0 -
That's her. Just another of my double-barrel bits of fun. Like Short-Trousers,Pulpstar said:
Pengelly ?SandyRentool said:
It is Little-Piggy from the DUP.Roger said:If anyone is watching Vince Cable on TV could they tell me who the dark haired woman behind him over his left shoulder (long hair purple top 35-40 )
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Brexit is a good solid old testament sort of god, a real Yahweh: capricious, unforgiving, loves to torment his followers out of amusement or spite.0
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Mr. Price, ha, quite a good addition.
Mr. Rook, aye. The overblown omens of doom meant more measured, and plausible, warnings were then seen through a discredited prism.
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Thank you but she must have a name? She's obviously an MP and if she's a Lib Dem she looks just the kind of person who should be leading them.Sean_F said:
His mistress.Roger said:If anyone is watching Vince Cable on TV could they tell me who the dark haired woman behind him over his left shoulder (long hair purple top 35-40 )
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NEW THREAD.
Second on offer….0 -
And even a plague of frogs...grabcocque said:Brexit is a good solid old testament sort of god, a real Yahweh: capricious, unforgiving, loves to torment his followers out of amusement or spite.
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Fred Nu0
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New thread.0
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Yes all three will be voting. Fiona Onasanya voted last night as I'm sure did Jared and Jim the washing machine salesman...dyingswan said:This debate in Parliament is a complete waste of time. If anything demonstrates why the public has no confidence in its MPs this is it. As a matter of information can anyone please tell me whether any of the following is permitted to vote: Fiona Onasanya, Jared O Mara, Keith Vaz?
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Who is "Little-Piggy"? She doesn't look like a DUPer.SandyRentool said:
It is Little-Piggy from the DUP.Roger said:If anyone is watching Vince Cable on TV could they tell me who the dark haired woman behind him over his left shoulder (long hair purple top 35-40 )
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No, I supported the deal and have nothing but disdain for the ERG.TOPPING said:
"they" = you, David, no?DavidL said:
Well tough shit. They had their chance to have something better and they blew it.grabcocque said:I mean obviously being in the customs union and outside the single market is absolutely absurd in the extreme.
Brexiteers want frictionless trade with the single market and the ability to set our own independent trade policy.
In the CU and out of Single Market, as is currently being talked about, is the ABSOLUTE OPPOSITE of what most Brexiteers want.0 -
You voted for precisely this outcome.DavidL said:
No, I supported the deal and have nothing but disdain for the ERG.TOPPING said:
"they" = you, David, no?DavidL said:
Well tough shit. They had their chance to have something better and they blew it.grabcocque said:I mean obviously being in the customs union and outside the single market is absolutely absurd in the extreme.
Brexiteers want frictionless trade with the single market and the ability to set our own independent trade policy.
In the CU and out of Single Market, as is currently being talked about, is the ABSOLUTE OPPOSITE of what most Brexiteers want.0 -
Thanks. Ive just looked her up. it is Little Pengelly. Pity she's not a Lib Dem.SandyRentool said:
That's her. Just another of my double-barrel bits of fun. Like Short-Trousers,Pulpstar said:
Pengelly ?SandyRentool said:
It is Little-Piggy from the DUP.Roger said:If anyone is watching Vince Cable on TV could they tell me who the dark haired woman behind him over his left shoulder (long hair purple top 35-40 )
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This is harsh IMO. It is in the national interest to attempt to force the only thing that has at least a reasonable chance of breaking the Brexit impasse quite quickly - a general election - and a VONC is the only route available to JC to do that. Has to try.stodge said:Today's VoNC is pointless self-indulgence. I cannot conceive of a single Conservative walking into anything other than the "No" lobby any more than I can imagine a single Labour MP walking into anything other than the "Aye" lobby. May will win cosily and comfortably enough thanks to the DUP.
The DUP on the other hand, blocking the government's flagship Brexit policy and at the same time blocking the replacement of the government, so that nobody else gets a crack at it, I'm sure there's a suitable before-the-watershed word for that. Let me think - disappointing?0 -
This thread is now
OLD
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Ah ok, thanks for info.david_herdson said:I don't think that necessarily follows.
Parliament could pass a binding motion (Meaningful Vote 2, say), endorsing ratification subject to the UK signing up to a permanent CU with the EU. If so, the government couldn't deposit the instrument of ratification until agreement had been reached and documents signed on the CU(UK-EU), (pronounced Cuckoo). That should give the DUP reassurance that there'd be no 'NI backstop' phase that Brexit could get stuck in.
In that case maybe the softer brexit is a genuine live outsider - albeit that the politics of this parliament seems stacked against.0 -
Port of Dover release a statement with two ferry companies saying they are prepared for a no deal Brexit
How long before ERG jump on that0 -
Adultery.Nigel_Foremain said:
He perhaps is putting his country before career and party. That would be novel wouldn't it? He has a degree in economics, so he perhaps doesn't agree that a hard brexit will be fine. Boris, by perfect contrast has a degree in....?Slackbladder said:0 -
If that was a hidden "Remembrance of the Daleks" reference, well done you.Chris said:
Just desserts? What does that mean? Endless Eccles cakes? Semolina ad infinitum? Unlimited rice pudding?DavidL said:
Yes. If only to give those morons in the ERG their just desserts.Freggles said:Can we just have customs union and workers rights alignment written into the WA and be done with it now?
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Travel? Moi? Pah!kle4 said:
I exclusive travel in a sedan chair carried by the oppressed. And then yacht. Sure it takes longer, but whatever I am heading to can wait until I arrive.grabcocque said:
Only peasants use airplanes. I take my private blimp.Sean_F said:
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:
I move the Earth.
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Unsarcastically, that's exactly what I'm doing.Chris said:
If people are really concerned about the financial consequences of a No Deal Brexit, at least these odds provide the opportunity of a pretty efficient insurance policy.Black_Rook said:
The opposition parties in the House are all left-leaning and all fighting each other for many of the same voters. The idea that some of them would dare allow themselves to be framed as enablers of a Tory Government by the others isn't credible (after all, the Lib Dems were indeed enablers of a Tory Government a few years ago, and look what happened to them.)Scott_P said:
It's why May suggested she'd allow other parties to move a VoNC if Corbyn failed to do so, of course. She used the competition amongst all the left parties to be the most virulently anti-Tory to her advantage, to try to make sure he did what she wanted.
After all, can you imagine what would happen if, for whatever reason, the numbers on the Government side were reduced and Corbyn were to lose a VoNC that he would otherwise have won if all the other opposition MPs had gone through the lobby with him?
Has a mechanism *known to have the assent of a majority of MPs* yet been found to prevent Brexit from happening automatically on March 29th? Or does this figure merely reflect a vague assumption that the Parliamentary majority against No Deal will manage to agree on a common course of action before that point?Chris said:Betfair's implied probability of leaving on schedule now down to 15%.
There's a world of difference between MPs having identified a common aim and concurring on how to get there.0 -
Yes. But it does stop them saying it out loud.kle4 said:
But that doesn't answer why they did it in the first place, and as the countless religions of the world demonstrate, 'God wants it this way' does not stop people disagreeing.Carolus_Rex said:
If anyone asked "Who's dumb idea was this?" the answer would have been "The gods" and that would have been that.kle4 said:
I did. I want to know who first suggested it as a rite and how they convinced others to do it.Carolus_Rex said:
Mayan priests ingested pulque (fermented agave juice) rectally to prepare for religious rituals. Bet you always wanted to know that.Foxy said:
Rectal fluid infusion is actually very effective in terms of absorption. Indeed it has a role in battlefield resuscitation and in major injuries, when medical aid is slow to arrive. It can ameliorate hypovolemic shock.Sean_F said:
One of the most bizarre deaths I read of was that of an Australian who died of alcoholic poisoning after injecting a bottle of whisky into his recturm.grabcocque said:
Boxed wine is so much more practical at bacchanalian orgies: no bottles of red to knock flying and ruin the deep shag.Anazina said:
I have been unfairly traduced on here for admitting to keeping boxed wine on my private jet.kle4 said:
I exclusive travel in a sedan chair carried by the oppressed. And then yacht. Sure it takes longer, but whatever I am heading to can wait until I arrive.grabcocque said:
Only peasants use airplanes. I take my private blimp.Sean_F said:
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:
https://www.realfirstaid.co.uk/rectal/
I suspect the absorption of alcohol in whisky would be equally effective.0
This discussion has been closed.