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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?
The outcome of this afternoon’s confidence vote in HMG is not really in doubt following the assurances made last night by Moggsy and representatives of the DUP that they would be backing the government. The real interest will be the size of the winning margin because it will almost certainly represent the maximum for both those for and against and looks like being the baseline for future such votes in the House.
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We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
An STD as well for all of the ERG.
It's not a matter of certainty then that the ERG are capable of succumbing.
That will influence his strategy and tactics.
The Tories get smashed in the event of sustained no deal.
I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
Otherwise the long grass would be the way to go. Note that the country (narrowly) decided to leave European Union. Note also that no acceptable way of leaving the EU has yet been found. Revoke Article 50. Set up a Commission to establish a path that will work for most of the stakeholders. And let that process take its course.
Should be "Why don't you lot.."
I guess they'll just print the money.
What if Cameron had listened?
Contains over 100 clips and lasts nearly 20 minutes.
The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
For example: David Cameron's "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011
Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency would create a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
This is not a grown up approach to politics.
At this point, the only sensible party political strategy for them is referendum, but even that is difficult to envisage, as May's long drawn out 'strategy' has subjected her deal to so many pails of shit being dumped over it from all sides, that it would be hard to offer to the public as a credible option.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1085476685636603904
TM is receiving criticism this morning some of which is fair, but all 498 mps who voted against the deal last night, but voted for A50 should hang their heads in shame
More seriously, unless MPs can very quickly agree on the way forward, the preparations for no deal need to be stepped up a gear or two.
Ken Clark in his usual affable way talking about a handful of key points and why we should worry about them would be more effective than the hysterical shroud waving Remain has adopted. The problem for the fearites is its all background noise and they have to take it up to aother level each time, Eventually it just looks nonsensical,
The problem is that even now the Cabinet is divided over objectives. That is no way to start a negotiation. We needed to negotiate internally, before going externally.
In order to leave the EU we must ratify the Withdrawal Treaty.
The DUP will not support the Treaty.
The DUP are the prop on which this government depends for its existence.
Therefore this government cannot take us out of the EU.
But we must leave the EU because of the 2016 referendum.
Therefore a different government is required.
Which with this parliament means either a GUC or a JC minority.
But neither of the above is feasible given the political dynamics.
Therefore a new parliament is required.
Which can only come about via a GENERAL ELECTION.
If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.
Remain Vs No Deal: Won't happen
Remain Vs May deal: Won't happen
Remain vs Softer Brexit: Possible, but still then needs an agreement with EU, which needs 'a deal' which the EU have said won't happen, and which no one in 'power' is prosing apart from some vague mentions from Labour.
So what referendum option is happening anytime soon?
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1085450982165827584
It was flatly denied by leave as part of 'project fear' - and is now being celebrated by some of your camp as the only true Brexit.
they don't have the power to do it themselves, only to direct the government indirectly and to agree/disagree/
"You've been told to tidy your room. now do it."
"Do I have to?"
"Yes."
"It's so unfair, I want to do something else."
"You promised you'd do it."
"Aw! It's too hard."
Can you think of any other realistic course of action that ticks those 2 boxes?
Heard that somewhere.
That nobody else in the UK wanted such a dreadful proposition for the future is neither here or there.
Or, just maybe, the threat that they would do it could be enough to get the government to bring forward the necessary proposal. I am sure it already exists.
That theme has continued on the broadcast media including Sky poll saying 53% do not want TM to be vonc. My opinion is that politicians are out of step with the public and even more from business. The business review was from Belfast and Irish business is 100% in favour of TM deal and not at all impressed with the DUP
but i think it might be a parody account...so difficult to tell these days
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/01/search-lost-brexit-how-uk-repeatedly-weakened-its-own-negotiating-position
'National officials, including in Germany, liked to report that business lobbies were pressing them to be tough on the integrity of the single market. “We have been urged not to let the British pick holes in the single market, lest that precedent lead to the whole thing unravelling,” said a Berlin official. “Business leaders tell us that the strength and integrity of the single market is much more important than the loss of a bit of trade with the UK.” '
'Brexiteer ministers assured the British people that the EU would not do anything that could endanger its trade surplus in manufactured goods with the UK. They were wrong.'
MPs are more than a little self indulgent atm
If we insist on leaving (and they're aware Parliament is for Remain), they must ensure we're not seen to benefit.
Project Fear can be left to British Remainers. On March 29th, British seabirds will plummet from the skies etc.
* And I have heard enough to last a lifetime.