politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?

It is 2019 and David Cameron is about to resign as PM following a sucessful EU referendum result.

The main players for the succession are George Osborne, his loyal lieutenant and current foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, whose decision to back remain was fundamental to the referendum result, the current reforming home secretary with a new liberal immigration policy following the Windrush scandal and Amber Rudd the chancellor of the exchequer.

The outside runner is Theresa May who resigned as home secretary and is a favorite of the right of the party with her no nonsense approach to immigration.

David Cameron is one of the favorities to succeed President Tusk.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Anorak, assuming she survives tonight's vote, May has a few days to return to the House with a Plan B.

Mr. grss, that's true, and worth adding that running down the clock was entirely unnecessary on May's part.

From her point of view, the deal got the party VoNC out of the way early though.

There would be a damn sight more than 48 letters in Sir Graham’s postbag this morning if that hadn’t happened back in December.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alanbrooke said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.

Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.

Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?

Ireland is now planning for a hard border

It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UK

They are completely broken on a no deal outcome

Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.

from what I can see it has been as irresponsible as the UK govt in doing no disaster planning

I can see nothing in the Irish press where they have by anti US stance.

And EU, well they are already chasing Ireland for tax reforms what price solidarity ?

Help to Ireland will come from the US in two ways:
* Financial and business comfort zone.

I cant see any appetite in the US for getting involved in Ireland, it has had its day. Ireland is simply too far down the list these and istiing on top of it all is a grumpy POTUS who wants his taxes back and Ireland is one of the chief offenders,

Watch the House. Always follow the money.

only time will tell

however since your on

In the last 3 months as some light relief from Brexit Ive done articles on Germany France and Italy. Spain is next on the list any chnce you could give us your views on whats happening ? There have been lots of changes with Rajoy gone and some scary people now in government in Andalucia. Fancy doing an article or at least in putting ?

Yep - that sounds very good. I do have some views!! What would you need from me.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1085494941411880960

OldKingCole said:

Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alanbrooke said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.

Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.

Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?

Ireland is now planning for a hard border

It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UK

They are completely broken on a no deal outcome

Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.

from what I can see it has been as irresponsible as the UK govt in doing no disaster planning

I can see nothing in the Irish press where they have by anti US stance.

And EU, well they are already chasing Ireland for tax reforms what price solidarity ?

Help to Ireland will come from the US in two ways:
* Financial and business comfort zone.

I cant see any appetite in the US for getting involved in Ireland, it has had its day. Ireland is simply too far down the list these and istiing on top of it all is a grumpy POTUS who wants his taxes back and Ireland is one of the chief offenders,

Watch the House. Always follow the money.

only time will tell

however since your on

In the last 3 months as some light relief from Brexit Ive done articles on Germany France and Italy. Spain is next on the list any chnce you could give us your views on whats happening ? There have been lots of changes with Rajoy gone and some scary people now in government in Andalucia. Fancy doing an article or at least in putting ?

Yep - that sounds very good. I do have some views!! What would you need from me.

Ill PM you and sort something out, thanks.

eek said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1085494941411880960

Why does Dunt always seem to turn to unnecessary language

Would he repeat his words on the broadcast media, which he appears on so much

Verulamius said:

It is 2019 and David Cameron is about to resign as PM following a sucessful EU referendum result.

The main players for the succession are George Osborne, his loyal lieutenant and current foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, whose decision to back remain was fundamental to the referendum result, the current reforming home secretary with a new liberal immigration policy following the Windrush scandal and Amber Rudd the chancellor of the exchequer.

The outside runner is Theresa May who resigned as home secretary and is a favorite of the right of the party with her no nonsense approach to immigration.

David Cameron is one of the favorities to succeed President Tusk.

The better counterfactual:

PM Ed Milibands first term is drawing close to its final year, and preparing for EP elections, being fought hard by UKIP and a Tory party led by LOTO May. There is some discontent amongst Labour backbenchers who wanted a more Socialist government, and the polls are neck and neck for the 2020 GE. EICIPM.

No Brexit, and Corbyn on the backbenches, no anti-semitism. We missed that much better world.

FrankBooth said:

MD - here's a nice quote about Davis.

'trading on WTO terms would not be so bad since that was how the UK traded with the US, ignoring the fact that UK-US trade is facilitated by dozens of US-EU agreements covering areas such as data, aviation, financial services and pharmaceuticals. And then David Davis said that it would not matter if the UK left without a deal, since it could use the transitional period to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU – apparently unaware that, without a deal, there is no transition.'

I think we can agree that David Davis is simply stupid.

Foxy said:

Verulamius said:

It is 2019 and David Cameron is about to resign as PM following a sucessful EU referendum result.

The main players for the succession are George Osborne, his loyal lieutenant and current foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, whose decision to back remain was fundamental to the referendum result, the current reforming home secretary with a new liberal immigration policy following the Windrush scandal and Amber Rudd the chancellor of the exchequer.

The outside runner is Theresa May who resigned as home secretary and is a favorite of the right of the party with her no nonsense approach to immigration.

David Cameron is one of the favorities to succeed President Tusk.

The better counterfactual:

PM Ed Milibands first term is drawing close to its final year, and preparing for EP elections, being fought hard by UKIP and a Tory party led by LOTO May. There is some discontent amongst Labour backbenchers who wanted a more Socialist government, and the polls are neck and neck for the 2020 GE. EICIPM.

No Brexit, and Corbyn on the backbenches, no anti-semitism. We missed that much better world.

We can all write history as we would like it to be

Pulpstar said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1085494941411880960

The Corbynites aren't really interested in Brexit compromise, they just want a Labour Gov't !

Which of course is part of their job description, if not the job description in its entirety.

One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee

I don't see how she can pick and choose among Opposition politicians.

Just announced she will talk to all senior politicians and spoke to Nicola Sturgeon last night

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

Get rid of the FTPA now.

Make the Deal a confidence vote.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

The ERG (And Mann) would fall back onside if it was a confidence vote - but the Gov't would fall as the DUP would vote against the deal/Gov't.
The DUP's opposition of the deal overrides their support of the Gov't.

So the DUP will bring on a GE.

If they want to risk a united Ireland, then so be it.

eek said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1085494941411880960

I have some sympathy with this decision. Corbyn has been mired in antisemitism issues, supporting terrorists, etc. I think the last thing that May should be doing is bringing him into the heart of the negotiations.
I would prefer her to be more explicit about only dealing with people on the Labour side that are not tainted by the above, but it is her choice.

Just imagine the fury on the left if May had to bring Farage in.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Borough, how does that actually resolve anything?

Say the deal is defeated. We have an election. But if the ensuing Parliament doesn't back a deal, we either leave without one or revoke Article 50. The options are identical.

It is a roll of the dice, no doubt. But it is the traditional safety valve of our system. A GE, a fresh Parliament, a fresh start.

No one has any real idea what the result will be.

And the parties would have to say what Brexit they will support in their manifesto.

Even Jezza couldn't last five weeks without agreeing to something.

rottenborough said:

outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

Get rid of the FTPA now.

Make the Deal a confidence vote.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

Several of us have been saying that on here for months. The FTPA is what’s driving Grieve’s behaviour; without the ability to utterly oppose the government but not cross the floor, he and Bercow can wreak their havoc on the Brexit process.

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

Get rid of the FTPA now.

Make the Deal a confidence vote.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

The ERG (And Mann) would fall back onside if it was a confidence vote - but the Gov't would fall as the DUP would vote against the deal/Gov't.
The DUP's opposition of the deal overrides their support of the Gov't.

I hadn't realised that abolishing the FTPA was a May manifesto pledge!

That is very interesting indeed.

If May's deal was a confidence vote, and DUP are against. Surely a few brave Labour MPs will do what is right for their country to avoid No Deal.

kinabalu said:

One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

Relatedly:
https://twitter.com/mynameiscal/status/1084803381879885824

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1085500912523767808

Endillion said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee

I don't see how she can pick and choose among Opposition politicians.

Is it possible that Corbyn just point blank refuses to talk to her, on anything?

You could be right. But it doesn't look as though she's in any mood to put out even a tiny olive twig!

Barnesian said:

Starmer looked very unhappy last night - more unhappy than usual. He was almost grimacing during Corbyn's speech.

I hope he resigns from the Shadow Cabinet with like minded colleagues and forms a group of Labour MPs, analogous to ERG, who decide on their own Brexit policies and vote as a block. It would include Umunna, Kendall etc. It could number over half of Labour MPs and would negotiate with Mrs May.

Corbyn's speech at the dispatch box was desperately poor and with the announcement of 75 labour mps for a referendum it is becoming a very dangerous moment for Corbyn himself

Endillion said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Can Theresa AFFORD to take the line as reported in the Guardian, viz 'Andrea Leadsom says PM will be engaging with people ‘who want to talk constructively’'.

Meaning she won't talk to the LOTO. Anyway, to whom is she prepared to talk. She'd better make up her mind in the next few hours.

I suspect she will talk to Starmer but also it looks as if she may turn to the Liaison Committee

I don't see how she can pick and choose among Opposition politicians.

Is it possible that Corbyn just point blank refuses to talk to her, on anything?

If he refuses, fine. But she ought to try. The government is in a hole. It cannot afford to be high and mighty and arrogant. That is why last night it suffered the worst defeat ever. That’s May’s legacy; that’s her 3 lines in the history books . Now she needs to get out of the way if she cannot show any flexibility.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085502383805878273

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

outstanding!!!!! The most important article you will read all week.

Get rid of the FTPA now.

Make the Deal a confidence vote.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/there-is-one-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse-that-no-one-has-noticed

Yes, this government in this parliament cannot deliver a negotiated Brexit because of the reliance on the DUP.

The situation is crying out for a general election.

As the person calling for one, Jeremy Corbyn, far from being an impediment to progress, is proposing the best realistic alternative to pressing on with Mrs May.

by the time we have a GE we'll have left

Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1085503872280547328

kinabalu said:

Morning all. So here is my take in bullets:

In order to leave the EU we must ratify the Withdrawal Treaty.

The DUP will not support the Treaty.

The DUP are the prop on which this government depends for its existence.

Therefore this government cannot take us out of the EU.

But we must leave the EU because of the 2016 referendum.

Therefore a different government is required.

Which with this parliament means either a GUC or a JC minority.

But neither of the above is feasible given the political dynamics.

Therefore a new parliament is required.

Which can only come about via a GENERAL ELECTION.

... which the Conservative Party will not call, as it would involve May leading another campaign and one in which the splits in the Party and between the Party leadership and activists would be catastrophic. And which no Party can call without the Conservatives' acquiescence.

Therefore... what?

The answer is that to leave the EU, a ratified Withdrawal Treaty is not needed. Just extremely useful in avoiding disruption, turmoil and unpleasantness.

Given that the Withdrawal Treaty will not be ratified, no GUC is feasible, a JC minority is not feasible, a New Election is not feasible, either an alternative Withdrawal Agreement will be agreed (highly unlikely; red lines would have to be erased), or we have a disorderly Brexit (more likely) or we do not leave the EU despite the 2016 referendum (less likely).

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1085504576541868033

Intriguing to watch the so-called moderate Leavers have the dawning realisation, three years too late, that they have thrown in their lot with extremists. Having pandered to them all that time, they now are starting to understand that they are implacable. They were warned.

AlastairMeeks said:

Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

LOL. What price and value did you screw them for yesterday?

What happens if the DUP abstain on the vnoc? Heard a rumour.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085502383805878273

I think it's the only way that does not involve going back to the country. Make the political declaration more Labour-friendly.

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1085494941411880960

The Corbynites aren't really interested in Brexit compromise, they just want a Labour Gov't !

Which of course is part of their job description, if not the job description in its entirety.

Nah on the big matters of war and peace (And this is up there) the Gov't is often supported. I think if Jezza had come back with a deal, the Tories may well have engineered abstentions.
Of course the Tory backbenchers have given Jezza every excuse he needs.

Nah yourself. According to Labour everything would be fine if it had been left to them and still could be fine if they are in power. Think about a Jeremy Corbyn government and a commitment to nationalise all shops which he says will transform society and ensure justice and equality for all. Surely a matter of the national interest for the Conservatives to vote in support of such a policy, right?

Richard_Tyndall said:

kinabalu said:

One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

I think this is spot on. I have no idea where things will go from here bit it would delight me if both those sets of zealots outside Parliament could somehow lose. The Deal was far from perfect and I think it was poorly negotiated but as far as the fundamentals go - we leave but maintain ties with the EU - it is basically the template for every single possible deal that could realistically be negotiated. It is a great shame it wasn't given more respect by both sides.

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

LOL. What price and value did you screw them for yesterday?

Not that much really, I took under £150 off them yesterday, being allowed a maximum £3.75 an MP on two occasions.

I do have a good track record with them, I admit, but presumably they have plenty of people on the other side of the spreads if they set them where they set them. Yesterday there was obviously plenty of upward pressure on the price, which rose as high as 223-231 at one point (and an eight point spread was pretty cheeky - it's only three points today). I'm not taking advantage of them but of their other customers. They should be prepared to take the rough with the smooth.

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Harrumph. I've been limited to £1 an MP today by Sporting Index. I mean, really.

Are you selling MPs on the VONC ?

Can't see much potential upside there tbh.

311 is the practical maximum if the DUP and the Conservatives do as expected (and I strongly expect them to do so). If the outcome is clear, there might be some waifs and strays who don't vote and the independents might abstain, or even vote in favour of the Conservatives. For example, it's not as though either Frank Field or John Woodcock has much love for Jeremy Corbyn, and neither is looking to return to the Labour party.

kinabalu said:

One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.

There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.

Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.

Agreed.

I heard somewhere that Mogg had a champagne celebration. Is that true ?

rottenborough said:

It is a roll of the dice, no doubt. But it is the traditional safety valve of our system. A GE, a fresh Parliament, a fresh start.

No one has any real idea what the result will be.

And the parties would have to say what Brexit they will support in their manifesto.

Even Jezza couldn't last five weeks without agreeing to something.

Yep. There is a clear and obvious case for a general election.

Labour's Brexit position is not a mystery to me, btw, it is crystal clear. It's Norway Plus. It's the Cons who have the problem with their Brexit position. As we saw yesterday.

And that, unfortunately, means a pre-Brexit GE will probably not happen. If they can't agree a Brexit position they can't fight it. And if they can't fight it they won't vote for it.

Bringing us back, as you say, to the de-merits of the FTPA.

Oooh. Corbyn piling on CU pressure, quite effectively.

Philip_Thompson said:

May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.

We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.

nope.

Anorak said:

Oooh. Corbyn piling on CU pressure, quite effectively.

Aaaand he's back to the comfort blanket.

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

It is a roll of the dice, no doubt. But it is the traditional safety valve of our system. A GE, a fresh Parliament, a fresh start.

No one has any real idea what the result will be.

And the parties would have to say what Brexit they will support in their manifesto.

Even Jezza couldn't last five weeks without agreeing to something.

Yep. There is a clear and obvious case for a general election.

Labour's Brexit position is not a mystery to me, btw, it is crystal clear. It's Norway Plus. It's the Cons who have the problem with their Brexit position. As we saw yesterday.

And that, unfortunately, means a pre-Brexit GE will probably not happen. If they can't agree a Brexit position they can't fight it. And if they can't fight it they won't vote for it.

Bringing us back, as you say, to the de-merits of the FTPA.

And the FTPA is, of course, another legacy of the political genius who got us into this mess, D Cameron Esq.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1085496290211958784

Mr Mark,

"Oh, I think given they are a significant minority in the House, there has been plenty of sound and fury from the women in there too."

A good point. Ms Soubry is a caterwaul on her own.

If Corbyn's not careful he's going to get his CU, which he's defined as the solution to the problem (and by implication the solution to gaining Labour support) and become an irrelevance again.

Pulpstar said:

Do Laing, Winterton and Hoyle get a vote in the confidence motion ?

Bercow + 7 Sinn Fein don't/won't...

2 tellers each side that don't also ?

The Deputy Speakers don’t vote.

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

I think the critical question is what, if any, steps can MPs take to prevent a March 29 exit with no deal?

Can't they change the exit date outwith primary legislation ?

Heard that somewhere.

There was a suggestion they could amend the U.K. legislation but not sure how they require the government to revoke Article 50 without further “innovation” by Speaker Bercow

Pulpstar said:

Do Laing, Winterton and Hoyle get a vote in the confidence motion ?

Bercow + 7 Sinn Fein don't/won't...

2 tellers each side that don't count also ?

650 - Bercow = 649
649 - Sinn Fein = 642
642 - 4 tellers = 638 max ?

But I note the 2017 vote was 323 to 309 = 632..

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Deputy Speakers don’t vote.

Thanks,

650 - (Bercow+ 3 Deputies) = 646
646 - Sinn Fein = 639
639 - 4 tellers = 635 max ?