politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?
Comments
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its appalling malc, its so bad my son is emigratingmalcolmg said:
G, it is hard to convince people that anybody thinks May is trustworthy and should remain. She has been an abject failure, lied through her teeth and obfuscated to get her own way. If she had any morals or principles she would have stood down immediately after that humiliation last night. Sadly we see how low the country has fallen by the disreputable actions of our leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a legacy of my days in business I always listen to 5 live business re is 100% in favour of TM deal and not at all impressed with the DUPYorkcity said:
Supporting what ? A record losing PM, or her Brexit deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportiveJonathan said:
Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong supportJonathan said:
The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.Sean_F said:
The mess has many authors.Jonathan said:
Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.Philip_Thompson said:May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.
We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.
he starts work in Edinburgh end of the month :-)0 -
Morning Malc - I am only expressing the comments made this morning in interviews and texts that even surprised me on how much support TM has in the country. I would suggest no one else would command as much trust, though I agree it is a low barmalcolmg said:
G, it is hard to convince people that anybody thinks May is trustworthy and should remain. She has been an abject failure, lied through her teeth and obfuscated to get her own way. If she had any morals or principles she would have stood down immediately after that humiliation last night. Sadly we see how low the country has fallen by the disreputable actions of our leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a legacy of my days in business I always listen to 5 live business review at 5.00am and then 5 live and this mornings phone ins and texts were surprisingly supportive of TM and the deal. Of course that was not everyone but it was more than expected and the theme was just get on and do itYorkcity said:
Supporting what ? A record losing PM, or her Brexit deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportiveJonathan said:
Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong supportJonathan said:
The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership.Sean_F said:
The mess has many authors.Jonathan said:
Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.Philip_Thompson said:May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.
We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.
That theme has continued on the broadcast media including Sky poll saying 53% do not want TM to be vonc. My opinion is that politicians are out of step with the public and even more from business. The business review was from Belfast and Irish business is 100% in favour of TM deal and not at all impressed with the DUP0 -
Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?0 -
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?0 -
Its always somebody else's fault isn't it. Not a scintilla of assuming responsibility.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?0 -
Still can’t see how we avoid a No Deal from here.0
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Morning all
I have to admit I was surprised by the size and scale of the defeat inflicted on the Prime Minister last evening. She barely got the support of her inner core of 200 MPs plus one or two others while the anti-WA numbers were surprisingly large with very few if any abstentions.
To re-iterate my points of Monday, the following things will NOT happen (in no particular order):
1) The Vote of No Confidence will be successful.
2) There will be a General Election.
3) There will be a second referendum as long as May is Prime Minister.
4) A50 will be revoked as long as the Conservatives are in Government.
The response to the defeat seemed strangely muted and I just had the sense for the first time she could see the end of the line. Starting to talk about bi-partisan or cross-party discussions is about two and a half years too late. Apart from that for the first time she looked to have no idea what to do next.
At the moment, as far as the EU is concerned, we exit without a deal in just over 10 weeks so they are well advanced with their contingency planning while we run around like headless chickens terrified of the prospect of running out of avocadoes.0 -
The explanation for these tactical errors, of course, was May’s fear of upsetting her party’s hard-Brexiteers. Especially after she lost her parliamentary majority in the general election of May 2017 – which left her dependent on the votes of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) – she lacked the authority to take on her right wing. She was painfully slow in developing a Brexit strategy because she could not get her fissiparous party to unite behind a common line – and when she did finally concoct a plan, key ministers such as Boris Johnson and David Davis resigned.FrankBooth said:Long piece from Charles Grant on the Brexit process. Does not stir one's patriotic loins. The sheer amateurishness, incompetence and above all IGNORANCE within the British government defies belief.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/01/search-lost-brexit-how-uk-repeatedly-weakened-its-own-negotiating-position
'National officials, including in Germany, liked to report that business lobbies were pressing them to be tough on the integrity of the single market. “We have been urged not to let the British pick holes in the single market, lest that precedent lead to the whole thing unravelling,” said a Berlin official. “Business leaders tell us that the strength and integrity of the single market is much more important than the loss of a bit of trade with the UK.” '
'Brexiteer ministers assured the British people that the EU would not do anything that could endanger its trade surplus in manufactured goods with the UK. They were wrong.'
The second reason why the UK was in an especially weak position was that its government was divided
The third reason why the UK weakened its own position in the Brexit talks was the sheer ignorance and incompetence of its political leaders. For most of the time since the referendum, they have failed to level with the British people about the painful trade-offs that Brexit would inevitably entail0 -
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome0 -
Looks like it to me too.SouthamObserver said:Still can’t see how we avoid a No Deal from here.
It will be with a whimper rather than a bang, but I guess that we have to let populism run its course before sanity returns.0 -
The 'extreme centrists' are the People's Vote guys like Adonis. Not regular people looking for a solution.Slackbladder said:I'm just been accused of being an 'extreme centrist' on twitter.... brilliant.
but i think it might be a parody account...so difficult to tell these days
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Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.0 -
Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
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Too vagueNigelb said:
Revoke vs Not Revoke ?Slackbladder said:I'm not sure a referendum is a fly
Remain Vs No Deal: Won't happen
Remain Vs May deal: Won't happen
Remain vs Softer Brexit: Possible, but still then needs an agreement with EU, which needs 'a deal' which the EU have said won't happen, and which no one in 'power' is prosing apart from some vague mentions from Labour.
So what referendum option is happening anytime soon?0 -
I was in Dublin last weekend and they do appear to be planning to do some shipping around the UK, from Dublin to Dunkirk or Rotterdam.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome0 -
MD - here's a nice quote about Davis.
'trading on WTO terms would not be so bad since that was how the UK traded with the US, ignoring the fact that UK-US trade is facilitated by dozens of US-EU agreements covering areas such as data, aviation, financial services and pharmaceuticals. And then David Davis said that it would not matter if the UK left without a deal, since it could use the transitional period to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU – apparently unaware that, without a deal, there is no transition.'0 -
So if the MPs as has been pointed out can't directly take steps to prevent a no deal exit (short of buying a DeLorean) then it is in the hands of the executive.
It remains my belief that the executive will not countenance no deal so will have to extend A50. Extending A50 could only be done for substantive reasons and those include:
a) a Second Referendum (20%); or
b) the Deal coming back but with amended terms - likely a customs union commitment that doesn't carve out NI from any measures (75%); or
c) a GE (5%);
But none are acceptable to the majority, we now know, of the Conservative Party.
Blimmin' heck.0 -
Rotterdam is 3 days sailing from DublinIanB2 said:
I was in Dublin last weekend and they do appear to be planning to do some shipping around the UK, from Dublin to Dunkirk or Rotterdam.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome0 -
If the EU refuse a significant extension, the way I see it, MPs are:
(1) Too cowardly to revoke
(2) Too proud to change their minds and support the Deal
(3) Too intelligent to allow No Deal.
But without an extension those would be the only three possibilities, so one of those pieces of reasoning has to be wrong.
It's a disturbing thought.
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Mrs May is a Remainer who accepted the result of the referendum and tried her hardest to negotiate a Leave that was as soft as she dared. The EU were happy to go along because it suited them too.
You can blame the more extremist Breixteers, but the root cause of the failure is down to the Labour Party playing silly buggers in favour of party advantage. The SNP are the original stroppy teenagers and the LDs only want Remain.
That's why Mrs May is getting sympathy. She may not be very good (and she isn't) but she comes out as one of the few adults around.0 -
May has the not inconsiderable advantage of being Prime Minister and having the staunch support of the Mail among others. As PM, she gets more coverage than anyone else so understandably her view and line is seen and heard more often than anyone else's.Big_G_NorthWales said:Morning Malc - I am only expressing the comments made this morning in interviews and texts that even surprised me on how much support TM has in the country. I would suggest no one else would command as much trust, though I agree it is a low bar
I'm going to be a little honest and controversial - "the people" haven't got a clue. Their gnat-like attention span has long been overwhelmed by the continuous day-to-day talk of Brexit and they are now tired and bored.
That in itself isn't a reason to support a bad deal or to take poor decisions about the economic governance and future trading relationships of this country which will have impact for decades to come. I genuinely believe a number of those who voted LEAVE on 23/6/16 thought we would leave the EU the next morning because that's what happens when we change Governments.
Pandering to the tired and bored brigade isn't a strategy - at most, it's a tactic.0 -
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.0 -
Sounds a bit like Brexiteer assertions that we'd be fine under No Deal because of our friends in the Commonwealth.SouthamObserver said:
Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome0 -
Populism and nationalism need to be defeated, and the one good thing about Brexit I can see is that it will expose the utter delusions that underpin the world views of the Buccaneers and the Lexiteers. The likes of you and me can pretty much watch from the sidelines as that plays out, but millions of others will not be so fortunate. Things will get a whole lot wose before they get better.Foxy said:
Looks like it to me too.SouthamObserver said:Still can’t see how we avoid a No Deal from here.
It will be with a whimper rather than a bang, but I guess that we have to let populism run its course before sanity returns.
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Mr. Booth, Davis lacking understanding does not mean that he is responsible for May's deal, which was subjected to the worst Commons defeat in modern history.
Likewise, Boris being unfit to be in the Cabinet does not mean May is a good PM.0 -
If we end up in a no deal scenario then I will have little sympathy for the Irish.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UK
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
Varadkar has massively overplayed his hand and it will be funny to see him squirm as he explains why he isn't building the EU's wall.
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About 40 hrs actually. Still significant.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rotterdam is 3 days sailing from DublinIanB2 said:
I was in Dublin last weekend and they do appear to be planning to do some shipping around the UK, from Dublin to Dunkirk or Rotterdam.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
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I thought there would be 20 or more Tory abstentions, people who couldn't be seen to be siding with either unpalatable option. But when it came down to it, they sided with the ERG.....stodge said:Morning all
I have to admit I was surprised by the size and scale of the defeat inflicted on the Prime Minister last evening. She barely got the support of her inner core of 200 MPs plus one or two others while the anti-WA numbers were surprisingly large with very few if any abstentions.
To re-iterate my points of Monday, the following things will NOT happen (in no particular order):
1) The Vote of No Confidence will be successful.
2) There will be a General Election.
3) There will be a second referendum as long as May is Prime Minister.
4) A50 will be revoked as long as the Conservatives are in Government.
The response to the defeat seemed strangely muted and I just had the sense for the first time she could see the end of the line. Starting to talk about bi-partisan or cross-party discussions is about two and a half years too late. Apart from that for the first time she looked to have no idea what to do next.
At the moment, as far as the EU is concerned, we exit without a deal in just over 10 weeks so they are well advanced with their contingency planning while we run around like headless chickens terrified of the prospect of running out of avocadoes.0 -
I completely disagree.CD13 said:Mrs May is a Remainer who accepted the result of the referendum and tried her hardest to negotiate a Leave that was as soft as she dared. The EU were happy to go along because it suited them too.
You can blame the more extremist Breixteers, but the root cause of the failure is down to the Labour Party playing silly buggers in favour of party advantage. The SNP are the original stroppy teenagers and the LDs only want Remain.
That's why Mrs May is getting sympathy. She may not be very good (and she isn't) but she comes out as one of the few adults around.
Had she come out from the start of the A50 process and said I want a "soft" Brexit or BINO or whatever, we'd have had some clarity on where she stood but she has spent the last two and a half years pandering to the unity of the Conservative Party rather than the interests of the country.
Then we had that catastrophic election which cost time and left her weakened. I've never heard her apologise for that either. That left her even more in hock to the ERG and those wanting a much harder line.
She has spent all this time trying to play both ends against the middle and in trying to keep everyone on board and satisfied she had ended up irritating everyone.
She deserves no sympathy and she should resign.0 -
If you have been listening to anyone in the EU in the past 12 hours you would know that b isn't a 75% chance there is a 0% chance of anything changing.TOPPING said:So if the MPs as has been pointed out can't directly take steps to prevent a no deal exit (short of buying a DeLorean) then it is in the hands of the executive.
It remains my belief that the executive will not countenance no deal so will have to extend A50. Extending A50 could only be done for substantive reasons and those include:
a) a Second Referendum (20%); or
b) the Deal coming back but with amended terms - likely a customs union commitment that doesn't carve out NI from any measures (75%); or
c) a GE (5%);
But none are acceptable to the majority, we now know, of the Conservative Party.
Blimmin' heck.0 -
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.0 -
Thats a good summing up of the position. Especially with May being a remainer, but trying to interpet the referendum to the best of her ability.CD13 said:Mrs May is a Remainer who accepted the result of the referendum and tried her hardest to negotiate a Leave that was as soft as she dared. The EU were happy to go along because it suited them too.
You can blame the more extremist Breixteers, but the root cause of the failure is down to the Labour Party playing silly buggers in favour of party advantage. The SNP are the original stroppy teenagers and the LDs only want Remain.
That's why Mrs May is getting sympathy. She may not be very good (and she isn't) but she comes out as one of the few adults around.0 -
And if they aren’t building it, and we aren’t building it, then why bother with the controversial bit of the deal that says it won’t be built?SunnyJim said:
If we end up in a no deal scenario then I will have little sympathy for the Irish.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UK
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
Varadkar has massively overplayed his hand and it will be funny to see him squirm as he explains why he isn't building the EU's wall.0 -
Mr. Mark, in that scenario it'd be May's deal versus remain. [NB I'm not advocating that, I'm saying it's a realistic possibility].
Mr. Jim, I'd have great sympathy for the Irish, but none for Varadkar.0 -
It's even further if you want to avoid British watersBig_G_NorthWales said:
Rotterdam is 3 days sailing from DublinIanB2 said:
I was in Dublin last weekend and they do appear to be planning to do some shipping around the UK, from Dublin to Dunkirk or Rotterdam.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
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That's an absolutely fascinating article, a must-read. Thank you for posting it. It's particularly good on the motivations and world-view of the EU27 politicians and bureaucrats.FrankBooth said:Long piece from Charles Grant on the Brexit process. Does not stir one's patriotic loins. The sheer amateurishness, incompetence and above all IGNORANCE within the British government defies belief.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/01/search-lost-brexit-how-uk-repeatedly-weakened-its-own-negotiating-position
[snip]0 -
What's the current time from Ireland to Calais via the UK? Not inconsiderable I'm guessing.geoffw said:
About 40 hrs actually. Still significant.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rotterdam is 3 days sailing from DublinIanB2 said:
I was in Dublin last weekend and they do appear to be planning to do some shipping around the UK, from Dublin to Dunkirk or Rotterdam.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome0 -
I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all I believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.0 -
Is that all?? Corbyn won't be worried about that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Perhaps in this case the public are embracing reality rather more quickly than the politicians. If the only way to leave the European Union is via the Withdrawal Treaty - which is palpably the case - then all a person has to do is answer a simple question, do I still want us to leave the European Union? If that's a 'yes' it means ratifying the Treaty.Big_G_NorthWales said:As a legacy of my days in business I always listen to 5 live business review at 5.00am and then 5 live and this mornings phone ins and texts were surprisingly supportive of TM and the deal. Of course that was not everyone but it was more than expected and the theme was just get on and do it
I suppose that parliament will get there in the end. And perhaps all of this noisy recalcitrance is a healthy thing, perhaps it is psychologically necessary to assuage people's sense of importance, parliament's collective ego if you like. So instead of signing up on 15th January, at first time of asking, they sign up on 15th March, or whenever, show that they are no pushover.
Bit like selling your house in a weak market. The 1st offer looks insulting, "it's an insult!" you exclaim and you turn it down. 3 months later, after much tetchy dialogue with your agent, blaming her for the fact that nothing better has been forthcoming, you face facts and ask yourself, do I really still want to sell? If 'yes' you contact that 1st buyer and, if the offer is still there, you take it. You would have been better accepting it before, sure, but for peace of mind you needed to go through the loop.
So, that is parliament, the seller, TM is the estate agent, the EU are the buyer, and the 'weak' in 'market' is our negotiating position.
Yes, I quite like that one. That's not so contrived.0 -
It would be ceding more ground to the EU so it must be possible.eek said:
If you have been listening to anyone in the EU in the past 12 hours you would know that b isn't a 75% chance there is a 0% chance of anything changing.TOPPING said:So if the MPs as has been pointed out can't directly take steps to prevent a no deal exit (short of buying a DeLorean) then it is in the hands of the executive.
It remains my belief that the executive will not countenance no deal so will have to extend A50. Extending A50 could only be done for substantive reasons and those include:
a) a Second Referendum (20%); or
b) the Deal coming back but with amended terms - likely a customs union commitment that doesn't carve out NI from any measures (75%); or
c) a GE (5%);
But none are acceptable to the majority, we now know, of the Conservative Party.
Blimmin' heck.0 -
There is no equivalent of the Irish American lobby in any Commonwealth country, while the EU will undoubtedly help the Irish out if it becomes necessary.Endillion said:
Sounds a bit like Brexiteer assertions that we'd be fine under No Deal because of our friends in the Commonwealth.SouthamObserver said:
Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
0 -
It sounds exactly like that, and is just as wrong.Endillion said:
Sounds a bit like Brexiteer assertions that we'd be fine under No Deal because of our friends in the Commonwealth.SouthamObserver said:
Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome0 -
Long odds Bailey and Burgon seem to be trotted out with regularity by Labour for the airwaves at the moment, they're all on a completely different page to Lammy and Starmer.Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
I think I’d have to quit the party if No Deal became official policy.Anorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all a believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.0 -
Forget the hard border. The French laugh-in is the place to be! I bet it's even more fun in Italy. The further away from the UK you can get the more hilarious it looks.Alanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
Possibly not the US where they've got their own clowns to laugh at...0 -
Mr. Slackbladder, it's not as large a number as it could be, indeed.
Mr. Anorak, well, it's up to May. Given she's tin-eared and cackhanded, stubborn as a mule and terribly at building consensus, we'll see.0 -
That does sound like it is on the low side of predictions we have seen.Slackbladder said:
Is that all?? Corbyn won't be worried about that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.0 -
from what I can see it has been as irresponsible as the UK govt in doing no disaster planningSouthamObserver said:
Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
I can see nothing in the Irish press where they have booked ferries ( real or otherwise ), expanded ports or built stocks. The health minister put out a bleak warning earlier this week saying they couldnt cope.
As for friends well we'll see, Trump is erratic and Varadkar made some early mistakes with him, if he supports ireland there will be a price. It wasnt helped by chief remainers Sinn Fein going to Maduro;s inauguation and taking an openly anti US stance.
And EU, well they are already chasing Ireland for tax reforms what price solidarity ?0 -
I agree. I also think many voters are not fools and Corbyn could suddenly experience a big slide in popularity.Slackbladder said:
Thats a good summing up of the position. Especially with May being a remainer, but trying to interpet the referendum to the best of her ability.CD13 said:Mrs May is a Remainer who accepted the result of the referendum and tried her hardest to negotiate a Leave that was as soft as she dared. The EU were happy to go along because it suited them too.
You can blame the more extremist Breixteers, but the root cause of the failure is down to the Labour Party playing silly buggers in favour of party advantage. The SNP are the original stroppy teenagers and the LDs only want Remain.
That's why Mrs May is getting sympathy. She may not be very good (and she isn't) but she comes out as one of the few adults around.0 -
Is it me or do the 'people's vote' MPs get much more airtime then they merit by absolubte number as a proportion of the HoC ?Slackbladder said:
Is that all?? Corbyn won't be worried about that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
MPs imho would have to make the result legally binding rather than advisory, since no right minded member of the public would trust the current parliament to implement whatever the result is otherwise.NorthofStoke said:
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.
Will MPs agree to that?0 -
May won't be at fault if we crash out.Anorak said:
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all I believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
It will be the fault of the remainers in parliament who place their own twisted europhilia above the national interest and the expressed democratic will of over 17 million voters.
They are an utter disgrace.
0 -
I'd wait until the next leadership contest, though. We need a Conservative party which will eventually come back to its senses, and we could at least make a start on that long process by trying to exclude the bangiest of the head-bangers from running the thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I’d have to quit the party if No Deal became official policy.Anorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all a believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.0 -
Google puts it at 2.9 daysgeoffw said:
About 40 hrs actually. Still significant.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rotterdam is 3 days sailing from DublinIanB2 said:
I was in Dublin last weekend and they do appear to be planning to do some shipping around the UK, from Dublin to Dunkirk or Rotterdam.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome0 -
Well she has said this morning (according to Sky) that she won't talk to those who want a CU.SunnyJim said:
May won't be at fault if we crash out.Anorak said:
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all I believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
It will be the fault of the remainers in parliament who place their own twisted europhilia above the national interest and the expressed democratic will of over 17 million voters.
They are an utter disgrace.
She is now part of the problem.0 -
He'll be more worried if Momentum get organised a bit more about his, now obvious, delaying tactics as he tries to get to No Deal.glw said:
That does sound like it is on the low side of predictions we have seen.Slackbladder said:
Is that all?? Corbyn won't be worried about that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yup. Wise thinking.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd wait until the next leadership contest, though. We need a Conservative party which will eventually come back to its senses, and we could at least make a start on that long process by trying to exclude the bangiest of the head-bangers from running the thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I’d have to quit the party if No Deal became official policy.Anorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all a believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.0 -
How you structure the question(s) will determine the final outcome - it's why I don't see a vote occurring.NorthofStoke said:
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.
I really do think the only end results are that we either revoke A50 and work out what we want and then have another referendum in 2020 or 2021 or we crash out with No Deal on March 30th.
And unless someone finds a means of replacing May (with someone else as a short term PM while the Tories find a new leader) I suspect we will crash out on March 30th..0 -
Given that MPs have rejected both No Deal and Deal on massive majorities how can the people trust they will carry out what that referendum says?NorthofStoke said:
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.
Will Lammy pledge to vote for no deal if the referendum goes that way? i can't see it.0 -
3 options ? Who will the first MP to raise Arrow's theorem/condorcet issues...NorthofStoke said:
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.0 -
Wise move, since No Deal will consign the Tories to the history books. They will be finished the level of anger will be so great when it turns out Project Fear was Project Reality.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I’d have to quit the party if No Deal became official policy.Anorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all a believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.0 -
He is probably the most diehard of all hard to die remainers in the HoC !Slackbladder said:
Given that MPs have rejected both No Deal and Deal on massive majorities how can the people trust they will carry out what that referendum says?NorthofStoke said:
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.
Will Lammy pledge to vote for no deal if the referendum goes that way? i can't see it.0 -
It does mean that nobody should take a blind bit of notice to anything he says.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, Davis lacking understanding does not mean that he is responsible for May's deal, which was subjected to the worst Commons defeat in modern history.
0 -
I am astonished that after such a humiliating defeat she hasn’t resigned.Jonathan said:
The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.Sean_F said:
The mess has many authors.Jonathan said:
Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.Philip_Thompson said:May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.
We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.0 -
I disagree that it's up to May, she's a passenger from now on.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Slackbladder, it's not as large a number as it could be, indeed.
Mr. Anorak, well, it's up to May. Given she's tin-eared and cackhanded, stubborn as a mule and terribly at building consensus, we'll see.0 -
I'd have thought that very few people (Leavers or Remainers) would prefer a CU to remaining. It is an indefensible position unless the EU agree to our voting on that part of their structures which is somewhat unlikely.Anazina said:
Well she has said this morning (according to Sky) that she won't talk to those who want a CU.SunnyJim said:
May won't be at fault if we crash out.Anorak said:
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all I believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
It will be the fault of the remainers in parliament who place their own twisted europhilia above the national interest and the expressed democratic will of over 17 million voters.
They are an utter disgrace.
She is now part of the problem.0 -
About 12 hours or soTheuniondivvie said:
What's the current time from Ireland to Calais via the UK? Not inconsiderable I'm guessing.geoffw said:
About 40 hrs actually. Still significant.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rotterdam is 3 days sailing from DublinIanB2 said:
I was in Dublin last weekend and they do appear to be planning to do some shipping around the UK, from Dublin to Dunkirk or Rotterdam.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome0 -
So frankly no one can take his pledge seriously. He's not interested in a referendum, he's interested in remaining. He wouldn't respect the outcome of any referendum unless it went his way, which is of course the same for a lot of the remainers on both parties.Pulpstar said:
He is probably the most diehard of all hard to die remainers in the HoC !Slackbladder said:
Given that MPs have rejected both No Deal and Deal on massive majorities how can the people trust they will carry out what that referendum says?NorthofStoke said:
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.
Will Lammy pledge to vote for no deal if the referendum goes that way? i can't see it.0 -
So how are you going to get rid of Grieve, Wollaston, Soubry.....?Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd wait until the next leadership contest, though. We need a Conservative party which will eventually come back to its senses, and we could at least make a start on that long process by trying to exclude the bangiest of the head-bangers from running the thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I’d have to quit the party if No Deal became official policy.Anorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all a believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.0 -
Whether or not she wins the VoNC later today, and I suspect she will, the sale of the rejection yesterday means she's got to talk to everyone. And PDQ as well. Whether she wants to or not.Anazina said:
Well she has said this morning (according to Sky) that she won't talk to those who want a CU.SunnyJim said:
May won't be at fault if we crash out.Anorak said:
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all I believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
It will be the fault of the remainers in parliament who place their own twisted europhilia above the national interest and the expressed democratic will of over 17 million voters.
They are an utter disgrace.
She is now part of the problem.
0 -
Help to Ireland will come from the US in two ways:Alanbrooke said:
from what I can see it has been as irresponsible as the UK govt in doing no disaster planningSouthamObserver said:
Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
I can see nothing in the Irish press where they have booked ferries ( real or otherwise ), expanded ports or built stocks. The health minister put out a bleak warning earlier this week saying they couldnt cope.
As for friends well we'll see, Trump is erratic and Varadkar made some early mistakes with him, if he supports ireland there will be a price. It wasnt helped by chief remainers Sinn Fein going to Maduro;s inauguation and taking an openly anti US stance.
And EU, well they are already chasing Ireland for tax reforms what price solidarity ?
* Financial and business
* Ensure no deals for the Brits
The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is the key here. Though, of course, we should not forget the Donald has attended the odd IRA fundraiser in his time.
This is worth a read:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/brianodwyer/irish-americans-will-not-accept-brexit-dividing-ireland
Brexit takes Irish-America back to its Brit-bashing comfort zone.
0 -
Eurotunnel: We’re staying open, deal or no deal.
https://www.getlinkgroup.com/uploadedFiles/assets-uk/Media/Press-Releases/2019-Press-Release/190115-UK-reaction-brexit-vote.pdf0 -
You wouldn't want someone as untrustworthy as Lammy involved in a hypothetical question. Hopefully you'd get the more pragmatic leavers and remainers round the table to thrash out something to be put to the electoral commission.Pulpstar said:
He is probably the most diehard of all hard to die remainers in the HoC !Slackbladder said:
Given that MPs have rejected both No Deal and Deal on massive majorities how can the people trust they will carry out what that referendum says?NorthofStoke said:
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.
Will Lammy pledge to vote for no deal if the referendum goes that way? i can't see it.0 -
Not all of Project Fear will be Project Reality (which was the problem of Project Fear that it was too obviously overly scary to be true) but enough will be reality that the Tory party will be toast.rottenborough said:
Wise move, since No Deal will consign the Tories to the history books. They will be finished the level of anger will be so great when it turns out Project Fear was Project Reality.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I’d have to quit the party if No Deal became official policy.Anorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all a believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
0 -
No you are not but I do trust TM or the HOC will stop itAnorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all I believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
I just said to my wife that having listened to Steve Baker this morning he should be locked up in a secure unit and to be fair, she collapsed laughing0 -
Indeed. But she is stubborn. Dangerously so.OldKingCole said:
Whether or not she wins the VoNC later today, and I suspect she will, the sale of the rejection yesterday means she's got to talk to everyone. And PDQ as well. Whether she wants to or not.Anazina said:
Well she has said this morning (according to Sky) that she won't talk to those who want a CU.SunnyJim said:
May won't be at fault if we crash out.Anorak said:
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all I believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
It will be the fault of the remainers in parliament who place their own twisted europhilia above the national interest and the expressed democratic will of over 17 million voters.
They are an utter disgrace.
She is now part of the problem.0 -
To be elected as an MP seems to turn a few heads. They become puffed-up with importance. Arriving in Westminster, they find themselves back at school as the juniors, especially when in opposition. So they jump up and down and demand to be recognised.
May's mistake was not to pander to them. Oh, the horror of it all!
I think Mrs May should stand down. It might only be anecdotal, and it might be short-lived, but she could leave now with dignity intact. It might even help feminism. A sensible woman who recognised her deficiencies amongst a crowd of dick-waving childish men.
I'm male, and I have to admit, it's not a good look.0 -
Down to fear of what comes after. I'm sure she has had quiet reassurances to press on from others who share those fears.Cyclefree said:
I am astonished that after such a humiliating defeat she hasn’t resigned.Jonathan said:
The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.Sean_F said:
The mess has many authors.Jonathan said:
Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.Philip_Thompson said:May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.
We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.0 -
I feel your pain. I really do.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. Wise thinking.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd wait until the next leadership contest, though. We need a Conservative party which will eventually come back to its senses, and we could at least make a start on that long process by trying to exclude the bangiest of the head-bangers from running the thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I’d have to quit the party if No Deal became official policy.Anorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all a believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
0 -
Perhaps, perhaps not.NorthofStoke said:
I'd have thought that very few people (Leavers or Remainers) would prefer a CU to remaining. It is an indefensible position unless the EU agree to our voting on that part of their structures which is somewhat unlikely.Anazina said:
Well she has said this morning (according to Sky) that she won't talk to those who want a CU.SunnyJim said:
May won't be at fault if we crash out.Anorak said:
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all I believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
It will be the fault of the remainers in parliament who place their own twisted europhilia above the national interest and the expressed democratic will of over 17 million voters.
They are an utter disgrace.
She is now part of the problem.
But refusing to talk to those people is utterly stupid.0 -
Really? I'm not surprised as she is utterly tone deaf and in her own world...Cyclefree said:
I am astonished that after such a humiliating defeat she hasn’t resigned.Jonathan said:
The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.Sean_F said:
The mess has many authors.Jonathan said:
Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.Philip_Thompson said:May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.
We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.0 -
Neither do I, sadly.SouthamObserver said:Still can’t see how we avoid a No Deal from here.
What a mess.0 -
That's a pitiful amount. I assumed it would be comfortably over 100, but I guess a lot of MPs outside London won't be seen supporting it unless its a last resort. The fact the likes of Harman and Benn aren't there will give May hope that some of the elder statespeople might want to thrash out a deal.Slackbladder said:
Is that all?? Corbyn won't be worried about that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I've been encouraging my mates to join up asap as they detest Corbyn but also the ERG headbangers equally.... it's not that much to do so and they might only need to pay 1 years of subs!TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. Wise thinking.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd wait until the next leadership contest, though. We need a Conservative party which will eventually come back to its senses, and we could at least make a start on that long process by trying to exclude the bangiest of the head-bangers from running the thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I’d have to quit the party if No Deal became official policy.Anorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all a believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.0 -
Indeed, outside London Remainsville the reaction is going to be why should we have another referendum, we had one two years ago and it’s up to you lot in Parliament to get on with it!Brom said:
That's a pitiful amount. I assumed it would be comfortably over 100, but I guess a lot of MPs outside London won't be seen supporting it unless its a last resort. The fact the likes of Harman and Benn aren't there will give May hope that some of the elder statespeople might want to thrash out a deal.Slackbladder said:
Is that all?? Corbyn won't be worried about that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If it allows full control of immigration, and solves the Irish border, what's not to love? Any sufficiently broad FTA would include clauses that put us in a de facto CU anyway.NorthofStoke said:
I'd have thought that very few people (Leavers or Remainers) would prefer a CU to remaining. It is an indefensible position unless the EU agree to our voting on that part of their structures which is somewhat unlikely.Anazina said:
Well she has said this morning (according to Sky) that she won't talk to those who want a CU.SunnyJim said:
May won't be at fault if we crash out.Anorak said:
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all I believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.
It will be the fault of the remainers in parliament who place their own twisted europhilia above the national interest and the expressed democratic will of over 17 million voters.
They are an utter disgrace.
She is now part of the problem.0 -
It's not the easiest of sells admittedly.....Scrapheap_as_was said:
I've been encouraging my mates to join up asap as they detest Corbyn but also the ERG headbangers equally.... it's not that much to do so and they might only need to pay 1 years of subs!TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup. Wise thinking.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd wait until the next leadership contest, though. We need a Conservative party which will eventually come back to its senses, and we could at least make a start on that long process by trying to exclude the bangiest of the head-bangers from running the thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I’d have to quit the party if No Deal became official policy.Anorak said:I awoke today with a deep sense of despondency and foreboding. I can't believe the Conservative Party, whom I've voted for since 2005, will allow us to drop out without a deal. I say party deliberately, because without Labour support, it's going to be the party that decides to accept the deal, not the government.
However, I can't see a path that allows them to do so without a major concession from the EU. And I can't see such a concession being forthcoming.
This leads to 3 ways "out of this":
- 2nd ref
- deferral of A50 (time is very tight)
- remain without 2nd ref (unthinkable)
None of those look appealing, or particularly likely right now
I've considered myself a Tory for years, albeit a very cameroony Cameroon. But I will NEVER EVER vote for the party again if they allow us to crash out without a deal. It's anathema to all a believed the party stood for. I'm sure I am not alone in this.0 -
If you are a labour MP outside London in a Leave voting constituency you aren't going to sign up for a "We've already told you once" vote.Brom said:
That's a pitiful amount. I assumed it would be comfortably over 100, but I guess a lot of MPs outside London won't be seen supporting it unless its a last resort. The fact the likes of Harman and Benn aren't there will give May hope that some of the elder statespeople might want to thrash out a deal.Slackbladder said:
Is that all?? Corbyn won't be worried about that.TheScreamingEagles said:
The advantage a Labour MP has if we do crash out is that their constituents get what they wanted and the pain and blame can be pointed at the Tories so their seats will be even safer than they currently are...0 -
Excellent. The pinnacle of Brexit is that large organisations are putting out press releases saying we plan to stay in business. Marvellous!Sandpit said:Eurotunnel: We’re staying open, deal or no deal.
https://www.getlinkgroup.com/uploadedFiles/assets-uk/Media/Press-Releases/2019-Press-Release/190115-UK-reaction-brexit-vote.pdf0 -
No Deal is tricky because the No Deal advocates are also saying there would be some kind of emergency deal. If nobody knows WTF an option means, it's impossible to commit to it.Slackbladder said:
Given that MPs have rejected both No Deal and Deal on massive majorities how can the people trust they will carry out what that referendum says?NorthofStoke said:
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.
Will Lammy pledge to vote for no deal if the referendum goes that way? i can't see it.
But if you were doing Remain vs Deal you'd probably want to make it binding, like the AV referendum. Technically parliament could legislate for a binding referendum then come back and repeal its legislation, but even if they wanted to, which they wouldn't, there's not much risk of that since parliament can't agree on anything.0 -
Yeah, cos Obama trying the bullying worked last time.SouthamObserver said:
Help to Ireland will come from the US in two ways:
* Financial and business
* Ensure no deals for the Brits
The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is the key here. Though, of course, we should not forget the Donald has attended the odd IRA fundraiser in his time.
This is worth a read:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/brianodwyer/irish-americans-will-not-accept-brexit-dividing-ireland
Brexit takes Irish-America back to its Brit-bashing comfort zone.
0 -
Oh, I think given they are a significant minority in the House, there has been plenty of sound and fury from the women in there too.CD13 said:To be elected as an MP seems to turn a few heads. They become puffed-up with importance. Arriving in Westminster, they find themselves back at school as the juniors, especially when in opposition. So they jump up and down and demand to be recognised.
May's mistake was not to pander to them. Oh, the horror of it all!
I think Mrs May should stand down. It might only be anecdotal, and it might be short-lived, but she could leave now with dignity intact. It might even help feminism. A sensible woman who recognised her deficiencies amongst a crowd of dick-waving childish men.
I'm male, and I have to admit, it's not a good look.0 -
I cant see any appetite in the US for getting involved in Ireland, it has had its day. Ireland is simply too far down the list today and sitting on top of it all is a grumpy POTUS who wants his taxes back and Ireland is one of the chief offenders,SouthamObserver said:
Help to Ireland will come from the US in two ways:Alanbrooke said:
from what I can see it has been as irresponsible as the UK govt in doing no disaster planningSouthamObserver said:
Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
I can see nothing in the Irish press where they have booked ferries ( real or otherwise ), expanded ports or built stocks. The health minister put out a bleak warning earlier this week saying they couldnt cope.
As for friends well we'll see, Trump is erratic and Varadkar made some early mistakes with him, if he supports ireland there will be a price. It wasnt helped by chief remainers Sinn Fein going to Maduro;s inauguation and taking an openly anti US stance.
And EU, well they are already chasing Ireland for tax reforms what price solidarity ?
* Financial and business
* Ensure no deals for the Brits
The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is the key here. Though, of course, we should not forget the Donald has attended the odd IRA fundraiser in his time.
This is worth a read:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/brianodwyer/irish-americans-will-not-accept-brexit-dividing-ireland
Brexit takes Irish-America back to its Brit-bashing comfort zone.0 -
The thing that really baffles me is she has known for ~6 months the deal wouldn't pass, and for ~2 years that she is the PM of a minority government. She has always needed to compromise.
Yet only now, after a shocking and humiliating defeat that was more than even the worst projections (suggesting that the expectations game was also completely fluffed), does she deign to consider chatting with the other parties about what they want, whilst still questioning whether that chat would include the LOTO; someone elected by the Labour Party members to be their leader (unlike her). The sheer arrogance and stupidity of this position makes me fume. I am not a fan of Corbyn, I am not a Labour supporter, but he is the LOTO and even if he is an idiot should be consulted in these issues. We have had enough of the EU being all about the Tory infighting, it should be about the country.
I didn't want to leave, I'd rather we don't, but I don't see a way of us not leaving. This government has done nothing to even attempt to get people like me on side, short of saying "it's my turd or a bucket of turds". It is outrageously stupid and aggravating.0 -
Watch the House. Always follow the money.Alanbrooke said:
I cant see any appetite in the US for getting involved in Ireland, it has had its day. Ireland is simply too far down the list these and istiing on top of it all is a grumpy POTUS who wants his taxes back and Ireland is one of the chief offenders,SouthamObserver said:
Help to Ireland will come from the US in two ways:Alanbrooke said:
from what I can see it has been as irresponsible as the UK govt in doing no disaster planningSouthamObserver said:
Ireland will have plenty of friends on both sides of the Atlantic to help it out. The UK won’t.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is farcical. They export 85% of their freight through UK ports and 60% remains in the UKAlanbrooke said:
Ireland is now planning for a hard borderMorris_Dancer said:Mr. B, Davis wanted a Canadian style FTA. May's deal is what the Commons won't accept. Blaming Leave when May's lost both Davis and Raab, and threw Davis' proposal in the bin, and is responsible for negotiating a deal that led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat this side of the Napoleonic Wars, is unreasonable.
Worth noting the role Varadkar played too. But for him replacing Kenny and changing the Irish approach, we might've had no backstop, a nice agreement on an electronic border, and a rather better chance of agreement.
Mr. Slackbladder, is that better or worse than being a centrist dad?
They are completely broken on a no deal outcome
I can see nothing in the Irish press where they have booked ferries ( real or otherwise ), expanded ports or built stocks. The health minister put out a bleak warning earlier this week saying they couldnt cope.
As for friends well we'll see, Trump is erratic and Varadkar made some early mistakes with him, if he supports ireland there will be a price. It wasnt helped by chief remainers Sinn Fein going to Maduro;s inauguation and taking an openly anti US stance.
And EU, well they are already chasing Ireland for tax reforms what price solidarity ?
* Financial and business
* Ensure no deals for the Brits
The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is the key here. Though, of course, we should not forget the Donald has attended the odd IRA fundraiser in his time.
This is worth a read:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/brianodwyer/irish-americans-will-not-accept-brexit-dividing-ireland
Brexit takes Irish-America back to its Brit-bashing comfort zone.
0 -
It could be done -NorthofStoke said:
Unless I am mistaken, on R4 this morning Lammy called for three options on second ref. (No Deal, Deal and Revoke). I assume he reflects a significant body of opinion in the People's VoteBrom said:
Precisely. A large majority of Tories support Leave. Is she really going to take away the option of no deal to appease a minority of her base support i.e deal supporters who would rather remain than leave without a deal and Tories who outright wish to remain. It would be suicide for the Tory party not to think about no deal, given the most vociferous opposition to it are those who would never vote Conservative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
With what option on that Second Referendum for the 52%?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, quite. The plan to make a hard border impossible may, in fact, make a hard border the reality on the ground.
Mr. Matt, I don't think it's outrageous to hold the Prime Minister responsible for the deal she negotiated.
Mr. Observer, I wrote this a little earlier, but it's possible May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal, she has another vote, threatens a second referendum (her deal versus remain) if it doesn't pass, it doesn't, we get another referendum.
Problems with that, of course, but it is a plausible way that we get a second referendum.
campaign? How a three option ballot could be structured is a very tricky and critical issue if we go down that path.
May's deal yes/no
If no, then Revoke vs Not Revoke.
Whether such a proposal is in the slightest bit realistic at this point is another matter.0
