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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair exchange its now a 69% chance the the UK WON’T exit the EU at the end of March
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Comments
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This is being overplayed. Its almost tempting0
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69.
Fnarr, fnarr.0 -
The funniest part about the Mann amendment is that it would commit Corbyn to follow existing state aid rules xD0
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When's the big vote again?0
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TuesdayRobD said:When's the big vote again?
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Fantastic. I'd vote for that amendment.Pulpstar said:The funniest part about the Mann amendment is that it would commit Corbyn to follow existing state aid rules xD
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Au contraire, I suspect the only chance of there being no delay is if May's deal goes through first time. I can't really see that being anything close to a 31% probability.DavidL said:This is being overplayed. Its almost tempting
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Nice.0
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The French really are in the premier league when it comes to protesting....
Members of the "yellow vests" protest movement have vandalised almost 60% of France's entire speed camera network, the interior minister has said.0 -
Yes but it would also rip the heart out of the faintly ridiculous speech that he made today. I think that the only thing that would be left would be a permanent customs union. AIUI the EU are not particularly minded to give us that even if we ask nicely, certainly not without some money in the pot.Pulpstar said:The funniest part about the Mann amendment is that it would commit Corbyn to follow existing state aid rules xD
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At this rate the Betfair exchange graph will be looking like it did on 23rd/24th June 2016 on 29th/30th March.
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Ooh, that's starting to get tempting past 2/1 that we leave on time.0
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Yes, that's exactly what I said. It's odds against now but those are pretty generous odds given Parliament will have to jump through several hoops to get there and seems to have tied the shoe laces of its clown shoes together for a laugh.Sandpit said:Ooh, that's starting to get tempting past 2/1 that we leave on time.
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What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family*.GIN1138 said:
* Only joking, the idiot fans of Conor McGregor contributed handsomely to the old Christmas kitty.0 -
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Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.GIN1138 said:
FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.0 -
Only ever go on an Ashes tour where we're not likely to get gubbed 5 nil.Sandpit said:
Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.GIN1138 said:
FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
2006/07 and Adelaide in particular is forever seared on my memory.0 -
Well I know that now :-)Sandpit said:
Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.GIN1138 said:
FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
At the time, I just couldn't see how the European's could win, the teams were so lopsided in terms of talent and the French course was very American in style.
But the American's to a man decided to play like your local 28 handicap hacker on a Sunday morning combined with crazy team strategy (e.g. playing Tiger Woods every match), while some of the Europeans played better golf than they have ever (and will ever) play.
I mean Poulter has hardly made a cut for 2 years and then it turns up and never loses.0 -
Ah, good point! That was a truly horrible tour, made even worse by the massive expectations on the team following the historic 2005 win.TheScreamingEagles said:
Only ever go on an Ashes tour where we're not likely to get gubbed 5 nil.Sandpit said:
Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.GIN1138 said:
FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
2006/07 and Adelaide in particular is forever seared on my memory.0 -
FPT did someone say KLOBUCHAR? The case for her is:
* Good at getting Republicans to vote for her - see https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/01/02/politics/democrats-2020-electability-elizabeth-warren-amy-klobuchar-sherrod-brown/index.html
* Strong legislative record, has a good versiom of the "getting things done across the aisle" story that all successful presidential candidates before Trump told (and even Trump did "art of the deal")
* Appeals to mid-western states that Trump took off the Dems, and also promising for Iowa
* Good performance against Kavanaugh, unlike Harris who set him up for a big reveal then didn't reveal anything
* Nice combination of no-bullshit, down-to-earth and just enough emotion. This is a tightrope for women candidates, especially on the left: They're not supposed to be "strident", but they're also not allowed to be weak. See: https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/10828427227701821450 -
There's nothing wrong with being a 28-handicap club hacker, I'll have you know!FrancisUrquhart said:
Well I know that now :-)Sandpit said:
Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.GIN1138 said:
FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
At the time, I just couldn't see how the European's could win, the teams were so lopsided in terms of talent and the French course was very American in style.
But the American's to a man decided to play like your local 28 handicap hacker on a Sunday morning combined with crazy team strategy (e.g. playing Tiger Woods every match), while some of the Europeans played better golf than they have ever (and will ever) play.
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That week you probably had a chance to beat Tiger Woods he was that shit.Sandpit said:
There's nothing wrong with being a 28-handicap club hacker, I'll have you know!FrancisUrquhart said:
Well I know that now :-)Sandpit said:
Not a good bet on Americans being anything but crap away from home.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family.GIN1138 said:
FPT, I like your thinking on cricket, an Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list but need to finish the F1 season first. Baku and hopefully Hungary for this year.
At the time, I just couldn't see how the European's could win, the teams were so lopsided in terms of talent and the French course was very American in style.
But the American's to a man decided to play like your local 28 handicap hacker on a Sunday morning combined with crazy team strategy (e.g. playing Tiger Woods every match), while some of the Europeans played better golf than they have ever (and will ever) play.0 -
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Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is very worrying
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/10/amazon-ring-security-camera/
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Is it mandatory to write KLOBUCHAR in upper case?0
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She also scores well on the weird name factor that is compulsory in America, though Kamala scores here too...edmundintokyo said:FPT did someone say KLOBUCHAR? The case for her is:
* Good at getting Republicans to vote for her - see https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/01/02/politics/democrats-2020-electability-elizabeth-warren-amy-klobuchar-sherrod-brown/index.html
* Strong legislative record, has a good versiom of the "getting things done across the aisle" story that all successful presidential candidates before Trump told (and even Trump did "art of the deal")
* Appeals to mid-western states that Trump took off the Dems, and also promising for Iowa
* Good performance against Kavanaugh, unlike Harris who set him up for a big reveal then didn't reveal anything
* Nice combination of no-bullshit, down-to-earth and just enough emotion. This is a tightrope for women candidates, especially on the left: They're not supposed to be "strident", but they're also not allowed to be weak. See: https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/10828427227701821450 -
Very worrying, yet entirely expected with the culture of most modern tech companies. But hey, the employees got their $1bn payday from Amazon buying them out, so everyone's happy. Except the customers.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is very worrying
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/10/amazon-ring-security-camera/0 -
I'm just off to smash my Ring camera.FrancisUrquhart said:
Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is very worrying
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/10/amazon-ring-security-camera/
I wonder how much I should sue them for?0 -
Not yet, but it will become mandatory by decree in the eleventh year of her glorious reign, you might as well get used to it now.williamglenn said:Is it mandatory to write KLOBUCHAR in upper case?
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Great gif hah.FrancisUrquhart said:
Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is very worrying
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/10/amazon-ring-security-camera/
Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.0 -
Fraser thinks is going to be "No Deal"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/10/mrs-may-tormenting-tory-mps-doses-corbynism-no-deal-getting/0 -
There's me trying to work out the phrase that it stood for!williamglenn said:Is it mandatory to write KLOBUCHAR in upper case?
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Might want to write that a bit bigger, lads.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The thing is the future of these smart assistant like Echo and Google Home is to incorporate always on video. And they are going to use the video to help make these things more proactive. And it seems people are buying these things like they are going out of fashion.RobD said:
Great gif hah.FrancisUrquhart said:
Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is very worrying
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/10/amazon-ring-security-camera/
Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.
Totally crazy if you ask me. I certainly don't have them and I am hardly a tin foil hatter, it just seems stupid security risk for what is really little gain i.e. I am not that f##king lazy not to be able to turn lights on and off myself.0 -
John Bercow will put an end to the traditionedmundintokyo said:
Not yet, but it will become mandatory by decree in the eleventh year of her glorious reign, you might as well get used to it now.williamglenn said:Is it mandatory to write KLOBUCHAR in upper case?
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Fraser and the telegraph may, but the important May will not lead her government into no dealGIN1138 said:Fraser thinks is going to be "No Deal"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/10/mrs-may-tormenting-tory-mps-doses-corbynism-no-deal-getting/0 -
You know it's authentic because they spelt surveyor correctly. Th at would be beyond the EDL mob.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal0 -
Because it's easy. Not everyone is a briefcase wanker with the time and inclination to arse about with arduinos and SD cards.RobD said:
Great gif hah.FrancisUrquhart said:
Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is very worrying
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/10/amazon-ring-security-camera/
Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.0 -
Yeah, the executive really don't like it when the legislature takes back control.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.0
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Fraser is very well connected (as is James Forsyth) I think we have to take what he says seriously.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Fraser and the telegraph may, but the important May will not lead her government into no dealGIN1138 said:Fraser thinks is going to be "No Deal"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/10/mrs-may-tormenting-tory-mps-doses-corbynism-no-deal-getting/0 -
I was more that there should be an opening in the market for that sort of thing, that isn't tied to the cloud.Dura_Ace said:
Because it's easy. Not everyone is a briefcase wanker with the time and inclination to arse about with arduinos and SD cards.RobD said:
Great gif hah.FrancisUrquhart said:
Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is very worrying
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/10/amazon-ring-security-camera/
Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.0 -
They do this often.El_Capitano said:Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.
It is often a boring tedious story.
Sometimes a biggie.0 -
The backstop is about the future relationship and is legally binding. That's the issue is that the EU have put what they want to be legally binding and what we want for the future. If we sign up to following their laws in perpetuity with no votes or opt-outs I'm sure they'd be happy to make that legally binding, that's a win/win for them.RobD said:
I thought there could be nothing legally binding about the future relationship in the withdrawal agreement due to sequencing?Philip_Thompson said:
Let's imagine for a second Parliament agrees to approve the WDA on condition of UK honouring EU environment and employment laws. Then to be "helpful" Barnier says we can facilitate this, sign this legally binding annex to be added to the WDA. HMG can hardly not sign it.RobD said:
Ah, the law is being used to direct negotiations for the future relationship? HMG can just say they tried...Philip_Thompson said:
It can if it is part of an international agreement.RobD said:
Permanently? I thought no parliament could bind its successor?Philip_Thompson said:
WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?TheScreamingEagles said:
So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
While the EU have said that the agreement is final that means they're not willing to give us any more concessions. If we voluntarily agree to prostrate ourselves further binding ourselves to them more than they asked for I'm sure they'd be happy to facilitate that by adding a legally binding annex to the withdrawal agreement binding us into honouring that.0 -
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?0 -
If Fraser thinks it is going to be "No Deal" we can probably all breathe a sigh of relief - it won't be No Deal.GIN1138 said:Fraser thinks is going to be "No Deal"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/10/mrs-may-tormenting-tory-mps-doses-corbynism-no-deal-getting/0 -
Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?0 -
I have a ring video doorbell and it is excellent, as my mobility is not as good as it was, and I can speak to the person at the door. Both my wife and I can use live view to see who is at the door and my wife feels much safer.FrancisUrquhart said:
The thing is the future of these smart assistant like Echo and Google Home is to incorporate always on video. And they are going to use the video to help make these things more proactive. And it seems people are buying these things like they are going out of fashion.RobD said:
Great gif hah.FrancisUrquhart said:
Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is very worrying
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/10/amazon-ring-security-camera/
Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.
Totally crazy if you ask me. I certainly don't have them and I am hardly a tin foil hatter, it just seems stupid security risk for what is really little gain i.e. I am not that f##king lazy not to be able to turn lights on and off myself.
The video is held on cloud for 6 weeks and I have no problem with it. It also amuses our young grandchildren when I speak through it to them0 -
Even if it is deserved it would not be be a good look to seek revenge. I wouldn't bother.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
They might even struggle to spell Nazi.Benpointer said:
You know it's authentic because they spelt surveyor correctly. Th at would be beyond the EDL mob.TheScreamingEagles said:-1 -
Well with 500 mps against it will not happen.GIN1138 said:
Fraser is very well connected (as is James Forsyth) I think we have to take what he says seriously.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Fraser and the telegraph may, but the important May will not lead her government into no dealGIN1138 said:Fraser thinks is going to be "No Deal"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/10/mrs-may-tormenting-tory-mps-doses-corbynism-no-deal-getting/0 -
Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.0 -
It's called X10 and it's been around for years decades.RobD said:
I was more that there should be an opening in the market for that sort of thing, that isn't tied to the cloud.Dura_Ace said:
Because it's easy. Not everyone is a briefcase wanker with the time and inclination to arse about with arduinos and SD cards.RobD said:
Great gif hah.FrancisUrquhart said:
Ring provided its Ukraine-based research and development team virtually unfettered access to a folder on Amazon’s S3 cloud storage service that contained every video created by every Ring camera around the world. This would amount to an enormous list of highly sensitive files that could be easily browsed and viewed. Downloading and sharing these customer video files would have required little more than a click.TheScreamingEagles said:Well this is very worrying
https://theintercept.com/2019/01/10/amazon-ring-security-camera/
Why on earth would you want to stick a bunch of cameras in your home that are uploaded to the cloud? If you are going to do it, link them to something like an arduino with an SD card which can be hidden quite easily.0 -
Benpointer said:
If Fraser thinks it is going to be "No Deal" we can probably all breathe a sigh of relief - it won't be No Deal.GIN1138 said:Fraser thinks is going to be "No Deal"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/10/mrs-may-tormenting-tory-mps-doses-corbynism-no-deal-getting/
0 -
No. 10s line for a month before the MV was pulled was there would be no changes. Yes she then tried to say she would get some more, but given her policy for a month was that was not possible, there's no justifiable reason someone who needed the concessions to stay in post (as opposed to wanting concessions but able to vote for the deal as is) had not quit in advance of the last minute pulling of the MV.Philip_Thompson said:
Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?0 -
Further to the tax talk earlier today, it’s interesting that the EU state aid rules can be a quite effective mechanism for attacking some multinational tax avoidance.
After going after Appple, now it’s Nike’s turn:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/10/eu-investigates-nikes-tax-status-in-the-netherlands0 -
Corbyn... genius....?TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1083493392640811009
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Was embargoed yesterday or the day before, too.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do this often.El_Capitano said:Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.
It is often a boring tedious story.
Sometimes a biggie.0 -
I called him that just yesterday without irony. Of course I meant accidental genius, and purely in relation to Brexit positioning, but still.RobD said:
Corbyn... genius....?TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1083493392640811009
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Let's hope it's not "Debenhams chairman ousted by Mike Ashley".TheScreamingEagles said:
They do this often.El_Capitano said:Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.
It is often a boring tedious story.
Sometimes a biggie. 0 -
In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demiseBenpointer said:
Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.0 -
He makes it so tempting with that inane grinkle4 said:
Even if it is deserved it would not be be a good look to seek revenge. I wouldn't bother.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Maybe they have got writers' block.RobD said:
Was embargoed yesterday or the day before, too.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do this often.El_Capitano said:Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.
It is often a boring tedious story.
Sometimes a biggie.0 -
The one and only time I broke my cast iron rule to never bet on boxing. Ludicrous odds.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family*.GIN1138 said:
* Only joking, the idiot fans of Conor McGregor contributed handsomely to the old Christmas kitty.0 -
Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.0
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Er... "I'm quitting as a cabinet mimister because the EU won't offer a concession." ?Philip_Thompson said:
Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
Not going to be a great look is it.0 -
Shrimsley has it down pat, and outside the firewall:Big_G_NorthWales said:
In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demiseBenpointer said:
Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1082412641417609218?s=190 -
Or they fired so many sub-editors, that when one calls in sick the paper goes out two hours late.Benpointer said:
Maybe they have got writers' block.RobD said:
Was embargoed yesterday or the day before, too.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do this often.El_Capitano said:Interesting... FT front cover is embargoed from #tomorrowspaperstoday until print publication.
It is often a boring tedious story.
Sometimes a biggie.0 -
The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficultkle4 said:Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.
0 -
I just cannot quite believe someone who by staying in post even when any concession at all was dismissed as impossible thus indicated they backed the deal as is, could possibly with a straight face claim the lack of concession means they feel they have to resign now.Benpointer said:
Er... "I'm quitting as a cabinet minister because the EU won't offer a concession." ?Philip_Thompson said:
Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
Not going to be a great look is it.
I mean, I'm not being unfair am I? It just seems so logically absurd to me.0 -
I was talking about McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov, but yes I also piled in on the Mayweather fight.Alistair said:
The one and only time I broke my cast iron rule to never bet on boxing. Ludicrous odds.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a Christmas that paid for..unlike this year, where the failure of the US Ryder Cup team meant we were more like Tiny Tim's family*.GIN1138 said:
* Only joking, the idiot fans of Conor McGregor contributed handsomely to the old Christmas kitty.
It was just so ridiculous, the best defensive boxer of all time, unbeaten and basically untouched for 49 fights, and people thought a bloke who has never fought professional boxing was going to mash him up, dream on.
It was same for the Khabib MMA fight. This guy was unbeaten, barely troubled by previous opponents, hard as nails and has an elite grappler who nobody has managed to escape from. The only tiny chance McGregor had was that he would wildly swing and connect before Khabib would wrap him up like a Christmas present.0 -
Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficultkle4 said:Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.
0 -
I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejectionBig_G_NorthWales said:
In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demiseBenpointer said:
Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.0 -
The EU made the mistake of thinking that our PM knew parliament better than they did.Nemtynakht said:
I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejectionBig_G_NorthWales said:
In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demiseBenpointer said:
Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.0 -
No-one should be surprised that the Chinese growth rate is declining, since their working-age population has been dropping for nearly 3 years.
https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-working-age-population-peaked-2016-4?r=UK&IR=T
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201801/12/WS5a584e92a3102c394518edbc.html0 -
Has anyone else noticed that *nobody* is talking about the DUP at the moment?It is almost as if there is no balance of power to be held at the moment.0
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Not sure it is optimism but more instinct, as it is going to be deal or remain and even if TM deal goes down by 200, the other option would be no deal or remain, which is crazykle4 said:
Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficultkle4 said:Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.
0 -
Where it gets interesting is if the govt can limit the loss to around 80. They would then be tempted to have another go, maybe making it clear at that point that there will be a GE or Ref2 if the Deal does not go through.kle4 said:
Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficultkle4 said:Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.
(PS I don't think they can limit the loss to 80 unless a left-field deal with Corbyn is cooked up - in which case the Deal will would pass.)0 -
Your last line is spot on. But so much is logically absurd in this chaoskle4 said:
I just cannot quite believe someone who by staying in post even when any concession at all was dismissed as impossible thus indicated they backed the deal as is, could possibly with a straight face claim the lack of concession means they feel they have to resign now.Benpointer said:
Er... "I'm quitting as a cabinet minister because the EU won't offer a concession." ?Philip_Thompson said:
Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
Not going to be a great look is it.
I mean, I'm not being unfair am I? It just seems so logically absurd to me.0 -
I think for all some EU fans like to think the EU knows us so much better than we know them, it is just as capable of misjudging the situation. Even if that misjudgement was around how crazy we would be, that should have been a factor in their negotiating. No they could hardly abandon certain lines, but none of us are going to get satisfaction from no deal in pointing out it is the other side's fault, and for all May's flawed efforts, she really has not been bluffing about how certain things would not work. If they understood our system at all they'd know that even May caving on some things wouldn't guarantee anything.Nemtynakht said:
I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejectionBig_G_NorthWales said:
In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demiseBenpointer said:
Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.
Other options are that they never wanted a deal at all really, but that would be to say they are liars which I don't think is fair - they say a deal is best for both of us and I believe them. Or that they are banking on us remaining after all if they make it even harder. But that is too finicky to be plausible I think.0 -
Did you mean no deal or remain at the end?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not sure it is optimism but more instinct, as it is going to be deal or remain and even if TM deal goes down by 200, there is no other option other than no deal or remainkle4 said:
Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficultkle4 said:Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.
0 -
The DUP have made themselves irrelevant by their 'never surrender' approach to this.ExiledInScotland said:Has anyone else noticed that *nobody* is talking about the DUP at the moment?It is almost as if there is no balance of power to be held at the moment.
0 -
Surely the same applies to our working age population?AndyJS said:No-one should be surprised that the Chinese growth rate is declining, since their working-age population has been dropping for nearly 3 years.
https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-working-age-population-peaked-2016-4?r=UK&IR=T
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201801/12/WS5a584e92a3102c394518edbc.html
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/978302412363624448?s=190 -
Well they came up at the beginning of the week IIRC, in their latest rebuff to talks with May's team. I guess in a sense they are not important, not because their vote is not criticial, but because it is almost certain their position is locked down so discussion is on potential, if implausible, changes, like masses of Tories changing tune or Labour abstaining or whatever.ExiledInScotland said:Has anyone else noticed that *nobody* is talking about the DUP at the moment?It is almost as if there is no balance of power to be held at the moment.
0 -
The EU made the mistake of thinking that Parliament would be as petrified of no deal as May is so would sign whatever they put in front of it.Benpointer said:
The EU made the mistake of thinking that our PM knew parliament better than they did.Nemtynakht said:
I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejectionBig_G_NorthWales said:
In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demiseBenpointer said:
Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.0 -
Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood0
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Last minute resignations are standard for any major rebellion. It was number 10's line for months that Britain should go to war with Iraq, yet it took until the day of the rebellion for Robin Cook to resign.kle4 said:
No. 10s line for a month before the MV was pulled was there would be no changes. Yes she then tried to say she would get some more, but given her policy for a month was that was not possible, there's no justifiable reason someone who needed the concessions to stay in post (as opposed to wanting concessions but able to vote for the deal as is) had not quit in advance of the last minute pulling of the MV.Philip_Thompson said:
Because they've waited until the last moment to see if there were any forthcoming concessions by Europe in May's fabled late negotiations to see if it could make this bitter pill easier to swallow.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?0 -
Only a small minority of MPs think No Deal is an option.Philip_Thompson said:
The EU made the mistake of thinking that Parliament would be as petrified of no deal as May is so would sign whatever they put in front of it.Benpointer said:
The EU made the mistake of thinking that our PM knew parliament better than they did.Nemtynakht said:
I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejectionBig_G_NorthWales said:
In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demiseBenpointer said:
Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.0 -
When you're talking a hundred plus rebels, there is no balance of power.ExiledInScotland said:Has anyone else noticed that *nobody* is talking about the DUP at the moment?It is almost as if there is no balance of power to be held at the moment.
0 -
I expressed it poorly and have edited it. If the deal goes down the idea the choice would be no deal or remain is crazyPhilip_Thompson said:
Did you mean no deal or remain at the end?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not sure it is optimism but more instinct, as it is going to be deal or remain and even if TM deal goes down by 200, there is no other option other than no deal or remainkle4 said:
Your optimism is an inspiration against my gloomy pessimism, but with best case scenarios of the defeat being if the gov can manage to lose by less than three figures, I've never seen such a dead proposal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The deal needs to be voted on, everything will flow from that and I still think TM has a good chance of achieving a deal as no deal is off the table, and the other options are as, if not more, difficultkle4 said:Is it funny that on the very day a handful of MPs have finally switched from being against the deal to for it that research from the BBC indicates May would, even with those switches, face one of if not the biggest defeats ever for a government. The first good news they've had for a month, but barely a flicker of light amid the darkness.
0 -
But MPs can hide behind rejecting other options and insist upon their own mutually contradictory options until it happens by default.Benpointer said:
Only a small minority of MPs think No Deal is an option.Philip_Thompson said:
The EU made the mistake of thinking that Parliament would be as petrified of no deal as May is so would sign whatever they put in front of it.Benpointer said:
The EU made the mistake of thinking that our PM knew parliament better than they did.Nemtynakht said:
I’ve always wondered how the EU thought the deal would get through the Parliamentary test. It’s all very well ‘winning’ a negotiation but when that has to be supported via the Parliament then too disadvantageous a deal seems to invite a rejectionBig_G_NorthWales said:
In blind panic maybe. They have been the architect of their own demiseBenpointer said:
Having some of their ministers resign now would apparently strengthen the Government's hand in the [completed] negotiations with the EU.kle4 said:
Another former minister told the Guardian that serving ministers could stand down to vote against the deal.Benpointer said:Steve Baker still living in la la land I see:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal
If I could be forgiven crudeness for the moment, what in the ever living fuck are these clowns playing at? Why, after all this time, would someone quit now to vote against the deal?
The longer this goes on the more bat-shit crazy the ERG mob are becoming.0
This discussion has been closed.