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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair exchange its now a 69% chance the the UK WON’T

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    edited January 2019

    Foxy said:

    AndyJS said:

    No-one should be surprised that the Chinese growth rate is declining, since their working-age population has been dropping for nearly 3 years.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-working-age-population-peaked-2016-4?r=UK&IR=T
    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201801/12/WS5a584e92a3102c394518edbc.html

    Surely the same applies to our working age population?

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/978302412363624448?s=19
    What happened in the early 70's to cause the population spike? Alternative leisure activities due to power cuts?
    The post-World-War-II baby boom started having children of their own?

    Things that have affected population growth in the UK

    * 1940's: Return of soldiers after WWII (increase in conceptions)
    * 1950's: NHS and compulsory vaccinations (more babies survive)
    * 1960-70s: wider availability of contraception (decrease in conception)
    * 1990s-2010s: greater immigration (immigrants are younger, and younger people have babies...)

    Unlike the USA, the UK had two baby-boom spikes (WWII and vaccination), which is why I get mildly annoyed when we use US cohort terms. Our population growed differently.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    Danny565 said:

    Andy Murray to retire from tennis.

    Sad news, although I often thought his style of play looked rather awkward, and that it was putting too much strain on his body to enable him to play beyond the age of 30.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    I hate to say this, but it is about time somebody took on Andrew Neil. He is by no means the worst, but he's not infallible.
  • AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Andy Murray to retire from tennis.

    Sad news, although I often thought his style of play looked rather awkward, and that it was putting too much strain on his body to enable him to play beyond the age of 30.
    I am amazed that Nadal has managed to keep going. He is like Murray in that he puts massive amounts of strain in order to win, unlike say a Federer.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    RobD said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    Not sure what's wrong with that headline. I don't think the average solider in the Wehrmacht was evil or deserved to die.
    They were shooting at us and many other people. That's normally considered a good reason to be killed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    Not sure what's wrong with that headline. I don't think the average solider in the Wehrmacht was evil or deserved to die.
    They were shooting at us and many other people. That's normally considered a good reason to be killed.
    So were allied soldiers.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    Not sure what's wrong with that headline. I don't think the average solider in the Wehrmacht was evil or deserved to die.
    They were shooting at us and many other people. That's normally considered a good reason to be killed.
    So were allied soldiers.
    They weren't shooting at my ancestors! Apart possibly for some of my relatives, but that's by marriage not blood so it don't count... :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019

    twitter.com/_alexhirsch/status/1083140191362048000?s=21

    I am surprised nobody found that before. Imagine if they had that during the election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    Not sure what's wrong with that headline. I don't think the average solider in the Wehrmacht was evil or deserved to die.
    They were shooting at us and many other people. That's normally considered a good reason to be killed.
    So were allied soldiers.
    They weren't shooting at my ancestors! Apart possibly for some of my relatives, but that's by marriage not blood so it don't count... :)
    Heh, well I don’t think it was personal. :p
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    twitter.com/_alexhirsch/status/1083140191362048000?s=21

    I am surprised nobody found that before. Imagine if they had that during the election.
    Proof of time travel. Somebody went back in time and wrote a reference to Trump in a TV show. We're now going to kid ourselves that it was there ALL THE TIME!
  • " Art intuitively apprehends coming changes in the collective unconciousness. " - Carl Jung
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Andy Murray to retire from tennis.

    Sad news, although I often thought his style of play looked rather awkward, and that it was putting too much strain on his body to enable him to play beyond the age of 30.
    I am amazed that Nadal has managed to keep going. He is like Murray in that he puts massive amounts of strain in order to win, unlike say a Federer.
    True, Nadal someone manages to avoid injuries most of the time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Here’s the full episode of the 1958 Trump story for those who are interested.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGWL1mMJHss
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.
  • Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    You know who " Socialist Voice " is don't you ? I'm *very* surprised to see you sharing him as a source much less on a mainstream site lile PB.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    You know who " Socialist Voice " is don't you ? I'm *very* surprised to see you sharing him as a source much less on a mainstream site lile PB.
    Couldn't say I do. Shared it for the clip, which seems suitable for a PB audience and I am fairly sure is genuine.
  • Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    But the same thing does seem to be happening nationally too -

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    You know who " Socialist Voice " is don't you ? I'm *very* surprised to see you sharing him as a source much less on a mainstream site lile PB.
    Couldn't say I do. Shared it for the clip, which seems suitable for a PB audience and I am fairly sure is genuine.
    Scott Nelson. One of the few people to be so anti-Semitic even the Labour Party had to kick him out. Still pals with the vile Chris Williamson and regularly shared and boosted by Corbyn fans though.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    When I make these kinds of mistakes I like to put it down the advanced multitasking my brain undertakes at any given moment. If I wasn't so smart I would make far less stupid little errors.

    There are other explanations but I find them less appealing.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    A50 extension and the European Parliament (continued):

    https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1083520723367411714

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but this implies that any technical extension to allow time to complete the ratification process for the WA could last no more than about three weeks, and effectively Westminster would still need to complete ratification by not much later than March 29th to leave the European Parliament enough time to debate and vote on it.

    Of course, a lengthier extension to allow for further constitutional processes to be completed in Britain, or a second referendum, or anything else is blocked by the fact that we would then have to elect MEPs, some of our seats in the European Parliament have already been redistributed to other member states, and we therefore cannot receive the required allocation of 73 seats because the total size of the chamber is limited by treaty.

    Are there means for the EU to fudge all of this (even if it were inclined to do so,) or would I be right to conclude that all of this implies that we either have to revoke A50 or complete the withdrawal process on or very shortly after March 29th?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    But the same thing does seem to be happening nationally too -

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec
    One poll by one pollster doesn't really tell us anything.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505
    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    The Tories might regain a couple of seats in London on that.

    But the LDs would also regain Richmond.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are.

    It’s pretty much the first thing you do in such circles, now, after answering, “what do you do?”
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505
    On topic, that Betfair market looks like a buy to me now.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited January 2019

    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    That was a shit answer by Stupidly, but what could he possibly say? May's Plan B (#peoplesvote) is currently unutterable as most people would prefer it to Plan A (the shit deal).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.
  • And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.

    Taki and Rod Liddle are racists. Owen Jones did his cause no good at all last night.

  • AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    The most recent poll there is a sub-set of the People’s Vote one, isn’t it?

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are.

    It’s pretty much the first thing you do in such circles, now, after answering, “what do you do?”
    People (liberal or not) are often quick to jump to conclusions. Impossible to know why it was done but I wouldn't be sure enough to condemn him for it and would rather give him the chance to explain (which he has) on balance I would say it wasn't anything the problem is plenty of racist people would make up (or choose one they know) a different name to insult people.

    Should probably avoid some circle of jumping to conclusions at this point.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    That was a shit answer by Stupidly, but what could he possibly say? May's Plan B (#peoplesvote) is currently unutterable as most people would prefer it to Plan A (the shit deal).
    Couldn't he have said TMay would announce what would happen after the vote went down, but all the options are bad compared to just passing it? That's the truth, and it's the closest thing they have to a line. If TMay has a plan, she doesn't seem to have told anyone.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Dura_Ace said:

    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    That was a shit answer by Stupidly, but what could he possibly say? May's Plan B (#peoplesvote) is currently unutterable as most people would prefer it to Plan A (the shit deal).
    Tough question to answer no doubt, no real good answers to it and attacking the opposition is the safe approach but perhaps without implying he was going to come up with an alternative just stick to the idea that the deal is the only option.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    But the same thing does seem to be happening nationally too -

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec
    One poll by one pollster doesn't really tell us anything.
    It tells us who is worried it might be the start of a trend.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    viewcode said:

    twitter.com/_alexhirsch/status/1083140191362048000?s=21

    I am surprised nobody found that before. Imagine if they had that during the election.
    Proof of time travel. Somebody went back in time and wrote a reference to Trump in a TV show. We're now going to kid ourselves that it was there ALL THE TIME!
    We know for sure that Donald Trump is Biff. Now where did Marty leave those Delorean keys?

    https://youtu.be/gwJQG4tFqZA
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Dura_Ace said:

    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    That was a shit answer by Stupidly, but what could he possibly say? May's Plan B (#peoplesvote) is currently unutterable as most people would prefer it to Plan A (the shit deal).
    Couldn't he have said TMay would announce what would happen after the vote went down, but all the options are bad compared to just passing it? That's the truth, and it's the closest thing they have to a line. If TMay has a plan, she doesn't seem to have told anyone.
    The Telegraph yesterday provided a handy guide to which Cabinet ministers had backed which plan Bs. It was hidden towards the end of a rather dull AEP piece so perhaps James Cleverly missed it.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/01/10/no-deal-brexit-table-sterling-assets-screaming-buy/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Dura_Ace said:

    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    That was a shit answer by Stupidly, but what could he possibly say? May's Plan B (#peoplesvote) is currently unutterable as most people would prefer it to Plan A (the shit deal).
    Tough question to answer no doubt, no real good answers to it and attacking the opposition is the safe approach but perhaps without implying he was going to come up with an alternative just stick to the idea that the deal is the only option.
    There is no way Cleverly would know what May's plan B might be at this stage.
  • In other news, it’s time to initiate Drought Watch. No significant rain since before Christmas. None at all this year. If things don’t change, we’re facing shortages later in the year. Should be fun on top of a No Deal Brexit.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    In other news, it’s time to initiate Drought Watch. No significant rain since before Christmas. None at all this year. If things don’t change, we’re facing shortages later in the year. Should be fun on top of a No Deal Brexit.

    We were soaked b4 Xmas.. Why do you worry so much....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    In other news, it’s time to initiate Drought Watch. No significant rain since before Christmas. None at all this year. If things don’t change, we’re facing shortages later in the year. Should be fun on top of a No Deal Brexit.

    I blame BREXIT
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    viewcode said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    I hate to say this, but it is about time somebody took on Andrew Neil. He is by no means the worst, but he's not infallible.
    Well of course he's not infallible, but while I've certainly seen Owen Jones make intelligent points he seems to also throw out nonsensical and blatantly partisan accusations with regularity and a total lack of self awareness. I've actually liked some of his writing but he seems to get personal quite quickly too.
  • In other news, it’s time to initiate Drought Watch. No significant rain since before Christmas. None at all this year. If things don’t change, we’re facing shortages later in the year. Should be fun on top of a No Deal Brexit.

    We were soaked b4 Xmas.. Why do you worry so much....

    Overall the second half of last year was drier than average in much of England, at least. Without the December rain we’d already be in deep trouble.

  • In other news, it’s time to initiate Drought Watch. No significant rain since before Christmas. None at all this year. If things don’t change, we’re facing shortages later in the year. Should be fun on top of a No Deal Brexit.

    I blame BREXIT

    I blame the gulf stream!

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    Not sure what's wrong with that headline. I don't think the average solider in the Wehrmacht was evil or deserved to die.
    The Spectator article is linked to here.The Times of Israel thinks it s author anti-semetic, something that usually has PB clutching its pearls.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/respected-british-magazine-publishes-defense-of-nazi-german-troops/

    Trying to whitewash Wehrmacht warcrimes, particularly on the Eastern front is a fairly frequent right wing theme in Germany.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    But the same thing does seem to be happening nationally too -

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec
    The only change of certain significance there is the dip in the Labour vote. The LibDems look good back in double figures, but the same happened just recently with a 10% rating followed by a drop back to 7% in the same company's next poll.

    The London poll does look significant. The People's Vote campaign is visible in London in a way that it isn't in the provinces - the LibDem and especially Labour membership is concentrated in London and there is a lot of leafleting and street activity going on, on top of which London's daily newspaper is actively engaged in the debate. It isn't surprising that this is putting pressure on Labour's fence sitting with it losing support in all directions including to UKIP.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited January 2019

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    I saw it and thought you were trying to make some sort of unpleasant point, but chose to ignore you. I am pleased it was instead a cock up. I did that once in a press release, referring to Wes Streeting (who is openly gay) as Wes Sweeting, because I had a constituent I knew fairly well called Sweeting. The paper rang up to ask what point I was trying to score, and I had to try and explain it was simply a slip.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.

    Taki and Rod Liddle are racists. Owen Jones did his cause no good at all last night.

    Taki is a racist. Rod Little is a bigot. Owen Jones is a hypocrite.
  • And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.
    Hmmm....I was a Spectator subscriber for 20+ years. I did not always agree with things in it and it occasionally published some very odd things but overall it was somewhere that ideas were examined and often then challenged in the following edition. You could ignore Taki by not reading him as he was always unpleasant. I had to cancel in 2016 - under the current ownership and editorship it basically went mad.

    At the start of the referendum you could feel Fraser Nelson wrestling with his conscience- he - a Scot-has a Swedish wife and might be a pragmatic pro european Tory in another life. I guess he wanted to keep the job so convinced himself he was doing the right thing. Having been a broad church its contributors shrank with one or two exceptions into a fairly rabid group. It slipped like the Tory party into the arms of English nationalism. Very sad as I miss the old magazine.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    The most recent poll there is a sub-set of the People’s Vote one, isn’t it?

    I thought not but maybe it wasn't reported very accurately.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    In other news, it’s time to initiate Drought Watch. No significant rain since before Christmas. None at all this year. If things don’t change, we’re facing shortages later in the year. Should be fun on top of a No Deal Brexit.

    I blame BREXIT

    I blame the gulf stream!

    Blaming a natural process rather than Brexit? Please keep this populist nonsense to yourself :tongue:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited January 2019

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.
    Hmmm....I was a Spectator subscriber for 20+ years. I did not always agree with things in it and it occasionally published some very odd things but overall it was somewhere that ideas were examined and often then challenged in the following edition. You could ignore Taki by not reading him as he was always unpleasant. I had to cancel in 2016 - under the current ownership and editorship it basically went mad.

    At the start of the referendum you could feel Fraser Nelson wrestling with his conscience- he - a Scot-has a Swedish wife and might be a pragmatic pro european Tory in another life. I guess he wanted to keep the job so convinced himself he was doing the right thing. Having been a broad church its contributors shrank with one or two exceptions into a fairly rabid group. It slipped like the Tory party into the arms of English nationalism. Very sad as I miss the old magazine.
    I feel the same. Doubtless there is a readership for an intellectual's Daily Mail, but it doesn't include me.

    That list of things it published that were apparently wrong with May's deal was a classic example, turning out to contain a whole lot of fake news that they hadn't checked or questioned.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.
    Hmmm....I was a Spectator subscriber for 20+ years. I did not always agree with things in it and it occasionally published some very odd things but overall it was somewhere that ideas were examined and often then challenged in the following edition. You could ignore Taki by not reading him as he was always unpleasant. I had to cancel in 2016 - under the current ownership and editorship it basically went mad.

    At the start of the referendum you could feel Fraser Nelson wrestling with his conscience- he - a Scot-has a Swedish wife and might be a pragmatic pro european Tory in another life. I guess he wanted to keep the job so convinced himself he was doing the right thing. Having been a broad church its contributors shrank with one or two exceptions into a fairly rabid group. It slipped like the Tory party into the arms of English nationalism. Very sad as I miss the old magazine.
    Yes, I second this unfortunately. The Spectator used to feel like a broad church, I barely read it any more but I feel it has become less rational and more polemical. A damn shame.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good morning, everyone.

    Saw this the other day when I was checking for the seat bands voting for May's deal. Upon checking, turns out I've backed the UK to leave on the date indicated already, at 1.7, so shan't be dipping my toe in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    I saw it and thought you were trying to make some sort of unpleasant point, but chose to ignore you. I am pleased it was instead a cock up. I did that once in a press release, referring to Wes Streeting (who is openly gay) as Wes Sweeting, because I had a constituent I knew fairly well called Sweeting. The paper rang up to ask what point I was trying to score, and I had to try and explain it was simply a slip.
    Pity those who make the regular Jeremy Hunt slip up!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    kyf_100 said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.
    Hmmm....I was a Spectator subscriber for 20+ years. I did not always agree with things in it and it occasionally published some very odd things but overall it was somewhere that ideas were examined and often then challenged in the following edition. You could ignore Taki by not reading him as he was always unpleasant. I had to cancel in 2016 - under the current ownership and editorship it basically went mad.

    At the start of the referendum you could feel Fraser Nelson wrestling with his conscience- he - a Scot-has a Swedish wife and might be a pragmatic pro european Tory in another life. I guess he wanted to keep the job so convinced himself he was doing the right thing. Having been a broad church its contributors shrank with one or two exceptions into a fairly rabid group. It slipped like the Tory party into the arms of English nationalism. Very sad as I miss the old magazine.
    Yes, I second this unfortunately. The Spectator used to feel like a broad church, I barely read it any more but I feel it has become less rational and more polemical. A damn shame.
    I actually think it went downhill under Boris (even while readership rose). I remember hugely enjoying it in the 90s, but Boris took it all lifestyle-y.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Rather interesting piece on the normality of life in unrecognised states, if a bit brief. It's fascinating how there's no end in sight for most of them, in such a formal age.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46510917
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    I listen to a few podcasts, ones on the right probably more so. I actually quite enjoy the coffee house shots podcast by the spectator... which I do struggle to line up with the madness of some of the writing.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Morning all. Wouldn't want to turn this into a constant stream of retweets, but this is potentially big news, is it not?

    https://twitter.com/doug_parr/status/1083626177850421248
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    I love Swinson's freeze-frame "WTF" at the end of that clip.

    (Swinson seemed surprisingly good - I've often been underwhelmed by her. Thornberry was Thornberry and Cleverly wasn't Cleverly.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    Morning all. Wouldn't want to turn this into a constant stream of retweets, but this is potentially big news, is it not?

    https://twitter.com/doug_parr/status/1083626177850421248

    Makes the decision not to proceed with the Swansea and Cardiff tidal barrages even more crass.....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Morning all. Wouldn't want to turn this into a constant stream of retweets, but this is potentially big news, is it not?

    https://twitter.com/doug_parr/status/1083626177850421248

    Depends. If the government simply accepts that nuclear power stations cannot be financed by the private sector and provides the financing itself, then there might be little change. If not, it would have to create a new energy policy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    If Labour failed to oppose Brexit the poll had the Tories the largest party in London on 37% with Labour on 30% and the LDs on 24%
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    People could simply ask in the first instance and condemn later if the answer received was unsatisfactory.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Pulpstar said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Didn't watch it myself.

    Left wing (and I would assume centrist but we aren't as close) twitter seemed to enjoy this bit

    https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/1083518686105866241

    She seemed quite good, might be worth giving a go again at some point.

    That was a shit answer by Stupidly, but what could he possibly say? May's Plan B (#peoplesvote) is currently unutterable as most people would prefer it to Plan A (the shit deal).
    Tough question to answer no doubt, no real good answers to it and attacking the opposition is the safe approach but perhaps without implying he was going to come up with an alternative just stick to the idea that the deal is the only option.
    There is no way Cleverly would know what May's plan B might be at this stage.
    Has May even got any idea what her Plan B is?

    She seems to be Micawberism writ large.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    Cyclefree said:
    I noticed that earlier, as well.
    It appears as though the EU state aid rules might be a fruitful tool for challenging multinational tax avoidance. Though there is perhaps something of a perverse incentive; the country which provided Apple with the means of offshoring profits (Ireland) was the one to benefit, to the tune of $15bn, from the EU tax case.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    kle4 said:

    Rather interesting piece on the normality of life in unrecognised states, if a bit brief. It's fascinating how there's no end in sight for most of them, in such a formal age.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46510917

    Interesting to see that Trans-Dniester, through Moldova, has free trade with the EU.

    Someone suggested the UK should become part of the Republic of Ireland as a solution to the Brexit problem. Maybe we could become part of Trans-Dniester instead.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Another u-turn from this increasingly incompetent government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46827301
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    People could simply ask in the first instance and condemn later if the answer received was unsatisfactory.
    Also it was challenged already so not doing so as well is hardly seeing casual racism go unchallenged
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279

    Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    People could simply ask in the first instance and condemn later if the answer received was unsatisfactory.
    Indeed they could - but this is Mike’s site, and if he wants to send an uncompromising message in challenging perceived racism, then I can’t find much enthusiasm for criticising him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    AndyJS said:

    Another u-turn from this increasingly incompetent government.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46827301

    Only on children born before 2017 when the policy came in so it is not retrospective, the 2 child benefits cap remains for those born after the policy was introduced
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    But the same thing does seem to be happening nationally too -

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec
    One poll by one pollster doesn't really tell us anything.
    Lol - especially if you don't like what it says.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "Yellow vests knock out 60% of all speed cameras in France"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46822472
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    People could simply ask in the first instance and condemn later if the answer received was unsatisfactory.
    Indeed they could - but this is Mike’s site, and if he wants to send an uncompromising message in challenging perceived racism, then I can’t find much enthusiasm for criticising him.
    I am eternally grateful to Mike for the work he does on this site and my comment was not a criticism of any individual.
  • Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    People could simply ask in the first instance and condemn later if the answer received was unsatisfactory.
    Somebody did ask, and my first answer ("I have no idea") wasn't much help.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    IanB2 said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    I saw it and thought you were trying to make some sort of unpleasant point, but chose to ignore you. I am pleased it was instead a cock up. I did that once in a press release, referring to Wes Streeting (who is openly gay) as Wes Sweeting, because I had a constituent I knew fairly well called Sweeting. The paper rang up to ask what point I was trying to score, and I had to try and explain it was simply a slip.
    I once posted Carol Shaw as Carol Shag. These things happen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    People could simply ask in the first instance and condemn later if the answer received was unsatisfactory.
    Indeed they could - but this is Mike’s site, and if he wants to send an uncompromising message in challenging perceived racism, then I can’t find much enthusiasm for criticising him.
    I am eternally grateful to Mike for the work he does on this site and my comment was not a criticism of any individual.
    Fair enough. My beef was with Casino_Royale anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    If Labour failed to oppose Brexit the poll had the Tories the largest party in London on 37% with Labour on 30% and the LDs on 24%
    That would be fun. London represented by the party of Brexit under FPTP......
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.
    Hmmm....I was a Spectator subscriber for 20+ years. I did not always agree with things in it and it occasionally published some very odd things but overall it was somewhere that ideas were examined and often then challenged in the following edition. You could ignore Taki by not reading him as he was always unpleasant. I had to cancel in 2016 - under the current ownership and editorship it basically went mad.

    At the start of the referendum you could feel Fraser Nelson wrestling with his conscience- he - a Scot-has a Swedish wife and might be a pragmatic pro european Tory in another life. I guess he wanted to keep the job so convinced himself he was doing the right thing. Having been a broad church its contributors shrank with one or two exceptions into a fairly rabid group. It slipped like the Tory party into the arms of English nationalism. Very sad as I miss the old magazine.
    Same here - I liked some of it but had to give up my subscription after one too many UKIP-lite, bigoted, small-minded Little Englander articles and editorials.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    edited January 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    People could simply ask in the first instance and condemn later if the answer received was unsatisfactory.
    Indeed they could - but this is Mike’s site, and if he wants to send an uncompromising message in challenging perceived racism, then I can’t find much enthusiasm for criticising him.
    Good to know that there is still an extensive outrage bus service......
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited January 2019

    Morning all. Wouldn't want to turn this into a constant stream of retweets, but this is potentially big news, is it not?

    https://twitter.com/doug_parr/status/1083626177850421248

    Makes the decision not to proceed with the Swansea and Cardiff tidal barrages even more crass.....
    Indeed it does.

    Still, sometime soon one of our governments will finally realise we need to invest seriously in tidal power - reliable, predictable, plentiful and perpetual.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    People could simply ask in the first instance and condemn later if the answer received was unsatisfactory.
    Somebody did ask, and my first answer ("I have no idea") wasn't much help.
    People might do better not to intervene in disputes they didn't see the start of... Ooops.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    People could simply ask in the first instance and condemn later if the answer received was unsatisfactory.
    Somebody did ask, and my first answer ("I have no idea") wasn't much help.
    People might do better not to intervene in disputes they didn't see the start of... Ooops.
    I strongly disagree!

    :wink:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    TOPPING said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.
    Hmmm....I was a Spectator subscriber for 20+ years. I did not always agree with things in it and it occasionally published some very odd things but overall it was somewhere that ideas were examined and often then challenged in the following edition. You could ignore Taki by not reading him as he was always unpleasant. I had to cancel in 2016 - under the current ownership and editorship it basically went mad.

    At the start of the referendum you could feel Fraser Nelson wrestling with his conscience- he - a Scot-has a Swedish wife and might be a pragmatic pro european Tory in another life. I guess he wanted to keep the job so convinced himself he was doing the right thing. Having been a broad church its contributors shrank with one or two exceptions into a fairly rabid group. It slipped like the Tory party into the arms of English nationalism. Very sad as I miss the old magazine.
    Same here - I liked some of it but had to give up my subscription after one too many UKIP-lite, bigoted, small-minded Little Englander articles and editorials.
    Wouldn't want you getting all outraged and mistaken for a gammon. That would never do....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    edited January 2019

    Morning all. Wouldn't want to turn this into a constant stream of retweets, but this is potentially big news, is it not?

    https://twitter.com/doug_parr/status/1083626177850421248

    Makes the decision not to proceed with the Swansea and Cardiff tidal barrages even more crass.....
    Indeed it does.

    Still, sometime soon one of our governments will finally realise we need to invest seriously in tidal power - reliable, predictable, plentiful and perpetual.
    And if it goes wrong you have tomorrow's tide, rather than Chernobyl-by-the-Sea.......
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    I see Iain Dale has (very grudgingly ) shifted in favour of May's deal.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    The Tories might regain a couple of seats in London on that.

    But the LDs would also regain Richmond.
    The loss to the House of Commons from Zac Goldsmith's departure would be...

    ...minimal

    (I apologise to all PBers. I am nice about almost everyone. Except Zac Goldsmith.)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    The whole point of the Spectator is to provide a platform for thought-provoking articles on contentious political and cultural topics that you wouldn’t find anywhere else. It makes you think whether you’re for, or against, or neither, or just think the author has an axe to grind. It can often publish articles from the opposite point of view, in response, the following week.

    Taki, and Rod Little, have zero time for any form of political correctness and like to provoke to make their points. So did Toby Young at one point, but he’s understandably dialled it back now.

    It is quite typical of Owen Jones to simplify and then exaggerate, because he sees some useful political ammunition for his big target there.
    Hmmm....I was a Spectator subscriber for 20+ years. I did not always agree with things in it and it occasionally published some very odd things but overall it was somewhere that ideas were examined and often then challenged in the following edition. You could ignore Taki by not reading him as he was always unpleasant. I had to cancel in 2016 - under the current ownership and editorship it basically went mad.

    At the start of the referendum you could feel Fraser Nelson wrestling with his conscience- he - a Scot-has a Swedish wife and might be a pragmatic pro european Tory in another life. I guess he wanted to keep the job so convinced himself he was doing the right thing. Having been a broad church its contributors shrank with one or two exceptions into a fairly rabid group. It slipped like the Tory party into the arms of English nationalism. Very sad as I miss the old magazine.
    Same here - I liked some of it but had to give up my subscription after one too many UKIP-lite, bigoted, small-minded Little Englander articles and editorials.
    Wouldn't want you getting all outraged and mistaken for a gammon. That would never do....
    If gammon doesn't have a slice of pineapple on it I'm out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    I saw it and thought you were trying to make some sort of unpleasant point, but chose to ignore you. I am pleased it was instead a cock up. I did that once in a press release, referring to Wes Streeting (who is openly gay) as Wes Sweeting, because I had a constituent I knew fairly well called Sweeting. The paper rang up to ask what point I was trying to score, and I had to try and explain it was simply a slip.
    I once posted Carol Shaw as Carol Shag. These things happen.
    I once received a legal letter that ended "I look forward to herring from you."

    I sent them a tin of pilchards..... "Will this do?"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    Why would you get a Labour BME officer and a LibDem MP confused - especially as it was in the context of a comparison with Jo Swinson?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Nigelb said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    An innocent mistake.

    Nice to see all those hair-trigger reactions anyway, though, as several ultra-liberal white men use it as an opportunity to publicly signal (again) how massively unracist they think they are...
    It is indeed good to see those reactions - without which we wouldn’t have had the perfectly innocent explanation.

    As you seem predisposed mind reading, I’ll return the favour; you give the impression of being happier to see casual racism go unchallenged.

    Indeed. An utterly sanctimonious and unnecessary intervention from Casino this morning.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    viewcode said:

    And wee Owen is now ranting on Twitter,

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1083522347620020225

    I hate to say this, but it is about time somebody took on Andrew Neil. He is by no means the worst, but he's not infallible.
    He is a total balloon but then so is Owen
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Sean_F said:

    I see Iain Dale has (very grudgingly ) shifted in favour of May's deal.

    If it's May's Shit Deal or no Brexit, it's May's Shit Deal. Very grudgingly is the best it could ever deserve.

    So pass May's Deal. Then boot her out - and install a leader pledged to walking away from the Treaty at the first sign of bad faith by the EU. And this time, let's have someone who will bloody plan for that as an outcome....

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Sean_F said:

    I see Iain Dale has (very grudgingly ) shifted in favour of May's deal.

    That will really enhance its chances.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    rcs1000 said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    Why would you get a Labour BME officer and a LibDem MP confused - especially as it was in the context of a comparison with Jo Swinson?
    A good point from Roger Smithson.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    rcs1000 said:

    Jo Swinson is so much better than Layla Mahmood

    Faux islamifying Layla Moran's name, who is of palestinian christian decent, is hardly subtle. You should be ashamed of yourself.
    Agreed. Shameful and totally ignorant
    It is rather embarrassing. Got her confused with my real life facebook friend Layla Mahmood who works as a Labour BME officer in Westminster, and whose name I see rather more often than Ms Moran's.
    Why would you get a Labour BME officer and a LibDem MP confused - especially as it was in the context of a comparison with Jo Swinson?
    It was late. He was tired?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Recent polling in London is interesting. It seems to show a fairly hefty swing from Labour to the LDs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#London

    The most recent one has Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15, Greens 5%, UKIP 4%.

    Changes since GE2017 would be Lab-15%, Con+2%, LD+6%, Greens+3%, UKIP+3%.

    This isn't a sub-sample from a GB YouGov poll, it looks like a dedicated London survey with 2,988 respondents.

    If Labour failed to oppose Brexit the poll had the Tories the largest party in London on 37% with Labour on 30% and the LDs on 24%
    That would be fun. London represented by the party of Brexit under FPTP......
    That would depend on how the votes fall. The LibDem vote in such a scenario is likely to be concentrated in SW London against the Tories and Inner London against Labour, where the Tories don't show. There probably wouldn't be so much of an uptick in the rest of Outer London where contests are Tory v Labour.
This discussion has been closed.