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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What LAB and CON party members think about Brexit?
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University to discuss his research on Labour and Conservative Party members – who they are, what they think about Brexit and what this means for the future of British politics.
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First! Like Mrs May & Leave.....0
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“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
A bunch of idiots, in connivance with the Speaker (quelle surprise), making it more difficult to deal with the problem should it occur.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
As was suggested last night, we could see an invocation of the Civil Contingencies Act if Parliament votes down the deal but then won't support no-deal planning. Having been a leading proponent of that particularly pernicious piece of Blairite over-reach, I'm sure Mrs Cooper will be delighted by its use?0 -
It's OK, the sunlit uplands will soon be visible and we'll have all the extra money to give to the NHS.Sandpit said:
A bunch of idiots, in connivance with the Speaker (quelle surprise), making it more difficult to deal with the problem should it occur.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
As was suggested last night, we could see an invocation of the Civil Contingencies Act if Parliament votes down the deal but then won't support no-deal planning. Having been a leading proponent of that particularly pernicious piece of Blairite over-reach, I'm sure Mrs Cooper will be delighted by its use?0 -
What’s GONU?Sean_F said:
Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
Government of National Unity.Casino_Royale said:
What’s GONU?Sean_F said:
Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
Enjoyed the podcast. Think it was correct that Labour members are happy enough for the moment but that would change if conference policy wasn't followed through after May's deal is (presumably) voted down.0
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I can't think of many things I would less describe as 'first' than Mrs May OR Leave.CarlottaVance said:First! Like Mrs May & Leave.....
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Or “remainers coup”.Casino_Royale said:
What’s GONU?Sean_F said:
Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
Thanks.RoyalBlue said:
Government of National Unity.Casino_Royale said:
What’s GONU?Sean_F said:
Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
It's not urgent at all really. Tory and Labour remainers are closest to having a majority in the chamber, they just need to admit what they want and take appropriate action together.CarlottaVance said:
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A Labour council awards £190m contract to a company which refused to pay to remediate Grenfell style cladding...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lendlease-builder-that-won-t-pay-to-remove-unsafe-grenfell-style-cladding-wins-190m-deal-2n7s5j92q
Not a great message.0 -
Yeah... one could imagine the national unity but being in short supply if that happened..notme2 said:
Or “remainers coup”.Casino_Royale said:
What’s GONU?Sean_F said:
Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
Looks serious. A full strike to be launched against congress?CarlottaVance said:0 -
As the Great She Elephant rightly said " you can't buck the market ". There is no majority in the House of Commons for ' no deal ' and hasn't been since the 2017 General Election. That's why Business has been promised a transition for well over a year and no serious ' no deal ' preparation has been done.
All that's now happening is the politics coming back into alignment with those market fundamentals. All bubbles burst. Why so many PB Brexiters are getting angsty about it is beyond me.0 -
I'm sure somebody at some time in the recent past must have made this observation already, but it seems that what we have at the minute is Schrodinger's Brexit, where (according to who you listen to) all outcomes are equally true.
At some point, the box is going to have to be opened and we won't find out if the cat's alive or dead till then.0 -
If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.
Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.0 -
They’ve verbed “negative”.CarlottaVance said:0 -
FTPT
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.htmlPhilip_Thompson said:
But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum
It seems like May actually read the SNP holyrood manifesto unlike many on here.0 -
GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.0
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Relations between Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond have hit rock bottom after the Scottish government conceded defeat in a legal battle over its “unlawful” handling of sexual misconduct complaints against the former first minister.
After a bruising court verdict, Ms Sturgeon apologised publicly to the two female complainants, saying that the ruling was “not a victory for anyone”, and robustly defended the anti-harassment policies that she approved.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/salmond-seeks-revenge-3bk7scxjw0 -
Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?Yellow_Submarine said:GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.
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Good morning, everyone.
Agree with the morning consensus. The Cooper amendment is either meaningless or stupid.0 -
An A50 extension will be needed only if the deal fails to pass and to enable second referendum.Yellow_Submarine said:GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.
A 15% probability IMO.0 -
Correction - they can hardly 'reasonably' object. I'm sure they can and will object but agreed, it is not unfair to reopen everything in that circumstance.AlastairMeeks said:If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened.
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Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.
Who'd have guessed?
Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag0 -
The SNP would argue for another Independence referendum if there was a letter 'r' in the month....Alistair said:FTPT
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.htmlPhilip_Thompson said:
But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum
It seems like May actually read the SNP holyrood manifesto unlike many on here.0 -
and probably lose again.CarlottaVance said:
The SNP would argue for another Independence referendum if there was a letter 'r' in the month....Alistair said:FTPT
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.htmlPhilip_Thompson said:
But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum
It seems like May actually read the SNP holyrood manifesto unlike many on here.0 -
The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.edmundintokyo said:
Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?Yellow_Submarine said:GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.
"Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.0 -
Agreed. Not sure for what other situation an extension makes sense. Not a GE, since that has no certain outcomes to make the EU agreeing to the extension worth it.TOPPING said:
An A50 extension will be needed only if the deal fails to pass and to enable second referendum.Yellow_Submarine said:GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.
A 15% probability IMO.
The decision to pull the MV remains one of the most baffling and pointless decisions May has taken. It's achieved nothing, not even it's aim of staving off a challenge. Seriously, what will have been achieved? No one has shifted position, at best we might get a lukewarm platitude from the EU and perhaps not even that, and we haven't even started up full prep for No deal.
What a waste of time.0 -
That was also my understanding of the position, although historically the EU hardly ever misses an opportunity to kick a can, and Mrs May would make a keen and experienced can-kicking partner.CarlottaVance said:
The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.edmundintokyo said:
Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?Yellow_Submarine said:GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.
"Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.0 -
They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.AlastairMeeks said:If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.
Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.0 -
It’s an even worse message to not award contracts to the best bidder because of a disagreement about a building they no longer own about work done a decade earlier.Nigelb said:A Labour council awards £190m contract to a company which refused to pay to remediate Grenfell style cladding...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lendlease-builder-that-won-t-pay-to-remove-unsafe-grenfell-style-cladding-wins-190m-deal-2n7s5j92q
Not a great message.0 -
She can revoke and immediately reissue article 50.edmundintokyo said:
That was also my understanding of the position, although historically the EU hardly ever misses an opportunity to kick a can, and Mrs May would make a keen and experienced can-kicking partner.CarlottaVance said:
The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.edmundintokyo said:
Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?Yellow_Submarine said:GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.
"Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.
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Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.
Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn0 -
A government which was opposed by both Corbyn supporters and Brexit supporters would have quite a torrid time.Harris_Tweed said:
Yeah... one could imagine the national unity but being in short supply if that happened..notme2 said:
Or “remainers coup”.Casino_Royale said:
What’s GONU?Sean_F said:
Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
He sounds unusually presidential there.CarlottaVance said:
I think this is a serious crunch time for his presidency, there's no way he's going to back down on what was his signature campaign policy. That wall has to be well under construction before the election if he's to retain any credibility among his supporters.
Let's see what Chuck Schumer has to say. How long before people get really fed up with the shutdown?0 -
It's a quite astonishing collective blunder.Sean_F said:
They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.AlastairMeeks said:If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.
Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.0 -
They do have their own hard deadline though, which is the date of the EU elections in May. They're not going to give an extension past that date, as our exit (or otherwise) determines how many MEPs are elected from each member state.edmundintokyo said:
That was also my understanding of the position, although historically the EU hardly ever misses an opportunity to kick a can, and Mrs May would make a keen and experienced can-kicking partner.CarlottaVance said:
The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.edmundintokyo said:
Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?Yellow_Submarine said:GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.
"Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.0 -
It would be Macronesque and we would likely get our own gilets jeunesSean_F said:
A government which was opposed by both Corbyn supporters and Brexit supporters would have quite a torrid time.Harris_Tweed said:
Yeah... one could imagine the national unity but being in short supply if that happened..notme2 said:
Or “remainers coup”.Casino_Royale said:
What’s GONU?Sean_F said:
Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
Yet, would be the best thing for the country. A return to sanity.Sean_F said:
A government which was opposed by both Corbyn supporters and Brexit supporters would have quite a torrid time.Harris_Tweed said:
Yeah... one could imagine the national unity but being in short supply if that happened..notme2 said:
Or “remainers coup”.Casino_Royale said:
What’s GONU?Sean_F said:
Sir Oliver Letwin will sort it out.CarlottaVance said:“Just because most people don’t want something to happen, doesn’t mean it won’t," Ms Cooper wrote in the Guardian. "So it is with a no-deal Brexit.". She's right. But while she might have persuaded MPs to back her amendment, it does not stop a no deal Brexit happening.
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
What is interesting is that Tory members are almost overwhelmingly pro Brexit, labour members anti Brexit, the labour parliamentary party anti Brexit, while the conservative parliamentary party is split more evenly between Brexit and remain (though accept the result largely and are now disagreeing mostly about the flavour of Brexit).HYUFD said:Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.
Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn
Of all the political groups out there, of MPs and party members, it’s the Conservative parliamentary party that is probably the most representative of the nation at the moment.0 -
I can’t work out if they’re thick, were never really serious about Leaving, or both.Sean_F said:
They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.AlastairMeeks said:If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.
Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.0 -
AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?0 -
In any other circumstances, MPs of the government party voting against the govt in a Finance Bill would have been cause for at least a lengthy suspension of the whip. The problem is that in the case doing so would lose the government their majority.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a quite astonishing collective blunder.Sean_F said:
They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.AlastairMeeks said:If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.
Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.
Last night's vote could have led to a GE, were it not for the FTPA.0 -
Why are Labour members brighter than Tory members? They may be slightly younger on average and more may be graduates but 50 years ago only 10% went to university compared to 40% now. Then many went to work after A Levels, now almost all A Level students go to university. I would also guess Tory members tend to be slightly wealthier on average and more are professionals working in the private sector than Labour membersRoger said:Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.
Who'd have guessed?
Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag0 -
I don't think he has to have a wall being built. To wall is simply a shibboleth for the idea of it being okay to be racist to Mexicans and American Hispanics. There doesn't have to be an actual wall, there just has to be an idea of a wall.Sandpit said:
He sounds unusually presidential there.CarlottaVance said:
I think this is a serious crunch time for his presidency, there's no way he's going to back down on what was his signature campaign policy. That wall has to be well under construction before the election if he's to retain any credibility among his supporters.
Let's see what Chuck Schumer has to say. How long before people get really fed up with the shutdown?0 -
Hmm. A second referendum before the end of this year is still 2.75 with Ladbrokes.
Here's a thing. Imagine you're a Remainer type MP. What's your approach to May's deal now? Do you see momentum on your side and vote it down to try and compel Referendum 2: Refer Harder, or do you vote for it as the least bad option?0 -
It's a signal, a signal that quite a lot of no-no-dealers didn't join in (presumably because they, like you and me, thought it was pointless) but still passed. What I think they are trying to do is show the Prime Minister that they are unignorable when it comes to her post-defeat options.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?0 -
Just another building block in the attempt to make no-deal increasingly unpalatable. Then they vote down the deal, and remain is left as the only option - it's been the plan for quite a while, it seems.DavidL said:
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this?
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So the rebel MPs understood both the rules of the game and the political dynamics. That is encouraging.Sandpit said:
In any other circumstances, MPs of the government party voting against the govt in a Finance Bill would have been cause for at least a lengthy suspension of the whip. The problem is that in the case doing so would lose the government their majority.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a quite astonishing collective blunder.Sean_F said:
They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.AlastairMeeks said:If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.
Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.
Last night's vote could have led to a GE, were it not for the FTPA.0 -
Maybe. But elderly Tories stopped thinking ages ago. "When facts change....." But elderly Tories are incapable of thinking things through.HYUFD said:
Why are Labour members brighter than Tory members? They may be slightly younger on average and more may be graduates but 50 years ago only 10% went to university compared to 40% now. Then many went to work after A Levels, now almost all A Level students go to university. I would also guess Tory members tend to be slightly wealthier on average and more are professionals working in the private sector than Labour membersRoger said:Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.
Who'd have guessed?
Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag0 -
I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?
It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.0 -
In a hung parliament if a single MP can party, then they will.Sandpit said:
In any other circumstances, MPs of the government party voting against the govt in a Finance Bill would have been cause for at least a lengthy suspension of the whip. The problem is that in the case doing so would lose the government their majority.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a quite astonishing collective blunder.Sean_F said:
They've certainly played into their opponents ' hands.AlastairMeeks said:If, as looks highly likely, a great majority of the MPs who voted Leave in 2016 reject Theresa May's deal, they can hardly object if the whole matter is reopened. The Leave prospectus was based on the deal being straightforward, not on crashing out without a deal at all.
Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.
Last night's vote could have led to a GE, were it not for the FTPA.0 -
Yes, it's been impressively done. The only trouble still to come is then their opposition to no deal and the commons as a whole to the deal, revocation should just happen as the only option, but they will presumably spend time arguing about a referendum to give cover for it being the only option.Andrew said:
Just another building block in the attempt to make no-deal increasingly unpalatable. Then they vote down the deal, and remain is left as the only option - it's been the plan for quite a while, it seems.DavidL said:
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this?0 -
Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.0
-
What is increasingly clear is that May is PM in name only. All she has left is control of the timetable and I see the latest Grieve amendment is seeking to take even that away from her. I really wonder how much longer she can go on and what is the point of her doing so.AlastairMeeks said:
It's a signal, a signal that quite a lot of no-no-dealers didn't join in (presumably because they, like you and me, thought it was pointless) but still passed. What I think they are trying to do is show the Prime Minister that they are unignorable when it comes to her post-defeat options.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?0 -
They want us to not leave the EU.kle4 said:
I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?
It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
But they don't have the balls to say so explicitly, because most of their constituents voted to leave the EU, and they were elected on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU following the referendum result.0 -
Is it true that more than 50% of current Labour members live in Greater London?Roger said:Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.
Who'd have guessed?
Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag0 -
One reason Trump sounded more than usually presidential is he was reading the autocue: sticking to what his writers had scripted rather than his usual speaking or tweeting off-the-cuff. The autocue also slowed him down a bit (eyesight?) which also adds gravitas.Sandpit said:
He sounds unusually presidential there.CarlottaVance said:
I think this is a serious crunch time for his presidency, there's no way he's going to back down on what was his signature campaign policy. That wall has to be well under construction before the election if he's to retain any credibility among his supporters.
Let's see what Chuck Schumer has to say. How long before people get really fed up with the shutdown?0 -
I thought the judgement that said the UK could unilaterally revoke had a "no pissing around" clause?notme2 said:
She can revoke and immediately reissue article 50.0 -
The former. It's so close now they can hardly miss their chance. With no deal opposition they are confident the risk is not great.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. A second referendum before the end of this year is still 2.75 with Ladbrokes.
Here's a thing. Imagine you're a Remainer type MP. What's your approach to May's deal now? Do you see momentum on your side and vote it down to try and compel Referendum 2: Refer Harder, or do you vote for it as the least bad option?0 -
Eventually they'll have to admit it, and new dealers will have to admit no deal is the only leave alternative to the deal. They insult us all by still chasing unicorns.Sandpit said:
They want us to not leave the EU.kle4 said:
I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?
It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
But they don't have the balls to say so explicitly, because most of their constituents voted to leave the EU, and they were elected on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU following the referendum result.0 -
To an extent, only about a third of Tory MPs back No Deal but far more Tory MPs prefer the Deal to Remain as their first choice, in the nation it is the reverse, though more have the Deal as their second choicenotme2 said:
What is interesting is that Tory members are almost overwhelmingly pro Brexit, labour members anti Brexit, the labour parliamentary party anti Brexit, while the conservative parliamentary party is split more evenly between Brexit and remain (though accept the result largely and are now disagreeing mostly about the flavour of Brexit).HYUFD said:Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.
Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn
Of all the political groups out there, of MPs and party members, it’s the Conservative parliamentary party that is probably the most representative of the nation at the moment.0 -
Split and dithering? That sounds like the Conservative Party.notme2 said:
What is interesting is that Tory members are almost overwhelmingly pro Brexit, labour members anti Brexit, the labour parliamentary party anti Brexit, while the conservative parliamentary party is split more evenly between Brexit and remain (though accept the result largely and are now disagreeing mostly about the flavour of Brexit).HYUFD said:Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.
Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn
Of all the political groups out there, of MPs and party members, it’s the Conservative parliamentary party that is probably the most representative of the nation at the moment.0 -
That's not at all a hard deadline. There's already a plan in place for what happens if the UK is still a member, and they've done changes partway through the term before when new members join. It's an irritation, but not an impossible hurdle.Sandpit said:
They do have their own hard deadline though, which is the date of the EU elections in May. They're not going to give an extension past that date, as our exit (or otherwise) determines how many MEPs are elected from each member state.
That said, it's not clear that rest of the member states would unanimously agree to put up with an irritation just so the British can faff around some more.0 -
On this issue it sounds like the nation. What’s interesting is just how out of whack the other parties are.PClipp said:
Split and dithering? That sounds like the Conservative Party.notme2 said:
What is interesting is that Tory members are almost overwhelmingly pro Brexit, labour members anti Brexit, the labour parliamentary party anti Brexit, while the conservative parliamentary party is split more evenly between Brexit and remain (though accept the result largely and are now disagreeing mostly about the flavour of Brexit).HYUFD said:Most Tory members support No Deal and most of the rest support the Deal with only a small minority still backing Remain, most Labour members back Remain with only a small minority backing Leaving with the Deal or No Deal.
Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn
Of all the political groups out there, of MPs and party members, it’s the Conservative parliamentary party that is probably the most representative of the nation at the moment.
0 -
That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):AndyJS said:Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.
Scottish unionist rebel
John Lamont
Remain-leaning rebels
Heidi Allen
Guto Bebb
Damian Collins
George Freeman
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Jo Johnson
Phillip Lee
Andrew Mitchell
Anna Soubry
Sarah Wollaston
Hard Leave-leaning rebels
Robert Courts
Tracey Crouch
Charlie Elphicke
David Evennett
Michael Fallon
Robert Halfon
Mark Harper
Trudy Harrison
Pauline Latham
Johnny Mercer
Neil Parish
Mark Pritchard
Douglas Ross
Grant Shapps
Hugo Swire
Shailesh Vara
Giles Watling
It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.0 -
Indeed. Given his tendency to ramble on with a load of bollocks, or to deviate massively from the script, this speech was unusual in that he did it 'normally'.DecrepitJohnL said:
One reason Trump sounded more than usually presidential is he was reading the autocue: sticking to what his writers had scripted rather than his usual speaking or tweeting off-the-cuff. The autocue also slowed him down a bit (eyesight?) which also adds gravitas.Sandpit said:
He sounds unusually presidential there.CarlottaVance said:
I think this is a serious crunch time for his presidency, there's no way he's going to back down on what was his signature campaign policy. That wall has to be well under construction before the election if he's to retain any credibility among his supporters.
Let's see what Chuck Schumer has to say. How long before people get really fed up with the shutdown?
Speed and cadence are also important, so as you say his team had the autocue running at a much slower pace to how he usually speaks.0 -
The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.kle4 said:
I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?
It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.0 -
And which may have met the building regulations as understoodnotme2 said:
It’s an even worse message to not award contracts to the best bidder because of a disagreement about a building they no longer own about work done a decade earlier.Nigelb said:A Labour council awards £190m contract to a company which refused to pay to remediate Grenfell style cladding...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lendlease-builder-that-won-t-pay-to-remove-unsafe-grenfell-style-cladding-wins-190m-deal-2n7s5j92q
Not a great message.0 -
I don't think it is a hard deadline. I believe the EU has a contingency plan for a delay beyond 26 May. But it certainly complicates matters.Sandpit said:
They do have their own hard deadline though, which is the date of the EU elections in May. They're not going to give an extension past that date, as our exit (or otherwise) determines how many MEPs are elected from each member state.edmundintokyo said:
That was also my understanding of the position, although historically the EU hardly ever misses an opportunity to kick a can, and Mrs May would make a keen and experienced can-kicking partner.CarlottaVance said:
The commentary I have read is that an extension will only get past the EU if its to make space for either a GE or a second referendum - ie the chance of reversing the decision.edmundintokyo said:
Will the EU side go for it even if there's no clear pathway to something harder?Yellow_Submarine said:GONU, second referendums, A50 revocation, General Elections and VoNC are all distractions at the moment. A50 extension is the gateway drug we should be pushing.
"Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.0 -
We need to be careful before we start disenfranchising people because they are too young or too old, or who don't have enough O-levels or enough money.HYUFD said:
Why are Labour members brighter than Tory members? They may be slightly younger on average and more may be graduates but 50 years ago only 10% went to university compared to 40% now. Then many went to work after A Levels, now almost all A Level students go to university. I would also guess Tory members tend to be slightly wealthier on average and more are professionals working in the private sector than Labour membersRoger said:Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.
Who'd have guessed?
Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag0 -
Mr. kle4, yeah, that's probably my take on it too.
All green on the referendum situation itself, so not inclined to back something at 2.75 I got better odds on, but if I had no skin in the market I'd be contemplating that.
Mr. Roger, sure, if you want to cast racial aspersions you could take that view. Or you could say that those with longer historical ties to this nation take a patriotic stance.
Or we could say that the country is very divided, almost exactly evenly, on this matter and there are legitimate arguments for and against. Being pro-EU or anti-EU is not the reserve of the moral or immoral, the stupid or wise. Despite the abysmal referendum campaigns, both are rational perspectives with reasonable arguments on their side.0 -
Yes, it had to be done according to our constitutional principles (and guess who gets to judge that) and in good faith (ditto). It is not an unfettered discretion.edmundintokyo said:
I thought the judgement that said the UK could unilaterally revoke had a "no pissing around" clause?notme2 said:
She can revoke and immediately reissue article 50.0 -
Remain-supporting MPs are under no pressure to accept the deal for as long as the true believers in Leave decisively reject it. Once it is rejected, all bets are legitimately off.DavidL said:
The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.kle4 said:
I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?
It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.0 -
Thanks for maintaining this list, and what an astonishing position to have so many rebels on all sides. As Mr Dancer said yesterday, the PM has managed to annoy both sides of a binary decision.AlastairMeeks said:
That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):AndyJS said:Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.
Scottish unionist rebel
John Lamont
Remain-leaning rebels
Heidi Allen
Guto Bebb
Damian Collins
George Freeman
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Jo Johnson
Phillip Lee
Andrew Mitchell
Anna Soubry
Sarah Wollaston
Hard Leave-leaning rebels
Robert Courts
Tracey Crouch
Charlie Elphicke
David Evennett
Michael Fallon
Robert Halfon
Mark Harper
Trudy Harrison
Pauline Latham
Johnny Mercer
Neil Parish
Mark Pritchard
Douglas Ross
Grant Shapps
Hugo Swire
Shailesh Vara
Giles Watling
It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
Do we have more than a handful of Con backbenchers (not on the payroll) supporting the deal?0 -
I wasn't aware there were any plans to disenfranchise anyone.DecrepitJohnL said:
We need to be careful before we start disenfranchising people because they are too young or too old, or who don't have enough O-levels or enough money.HYUFD said:
Why are Labour members brighter than Tory members? They may be slightly younger on average and more may be graduates but 50 years ago only 10% went to university compared to 40% now. Then many went to work after A Levels, now almost all A Level students go to university. I would also guess Tory members tend to be slightly wealthier on average and more are professionals working in the private sector than Labour membersRoger said:Very interesting podcast. Labour members younger brighter more numerous more ethnically diverse more geographically diverse more gender equal and 9/10 against leaving the EU. The Tories by contrast are bigoted old white male socially illiberal anti EU small in number and right wing.
Who'd have guessed?
Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag0 -
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1082918804815073281
Oh please make it William Hague screams my wallet.0 -
I was thinking that the other day. Why does anyone take the SNP seriously when they talk about one thing or another being better dealt with by an independent Scotland. It is their answer to everything. What’s better than Brexit? An independent Scotland in the EU. Why do we need more housing in Scotland? An independent Scotland would better meet those needs. Who is going to win X factor? Anyone from an independent ScotlandCarlottaVance said:
The SNP would argue for another Independence referendum if there was a letter 'r' in the month....Alistair said:FTPT
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.htmlPhilip_Thompson said:
But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum
It seems like May actually read the SNP holyrood manifesto unlike many on here.0 -
Plenty of the rebels are dealers. It is saying we have a deal to leave the EU so we should leave with that deal. As @AlastairMeeks has noted, many leavers don't support the deal and hence have surrendered their right to hold anyone to any particular version of leave. The rebels, I imagine, would not have rebelled if their party was united behind the deal.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?0 -
Lots, heading to 100 as things currently stand. Few of them, however, voted Leave in 2016. Nearly all of them are what I think of as "quiet lifers".Sandpit said:
Thanks for maintaining this list, and what an astonishing position to have so many rebels on all sides. As Mr Dancer said yesterday, the PM has managed to annoy both sides of a binary decision.AlastairMeeks said:
That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):AndyJS said:Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.
Scottish unionist rebel
John Lamont
Remain-leaning rebels
Heidi Allen
Guto Bebb
Damian Collins
George Freeman
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Jo Johnson
Phillip Lee
Andrew Mitchell
Anna Soubry
Sarah Wollaston
Hard Leave-leaning rebels
Robert Courts
Tracey Crouch
Charlie Elphicke
David Evennett
Michael Fallon
Robert Halfon
Mark Harper
Trudy Harrison
Pauline Latham
Johnny Mercer
Neil Parish
Mark Pritchard
Douglas Ross
Grant Shapps
Hugo Swire
Shailesh Vara
Giles Watling
It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
Do we have more than a handful of Con backbenchers (not on the payroll) supporting the deal?0 -
Thanks for the list. I think Antoinette Sandbach is sometimes also included in the list of Remain rebels.AlastairMeeks said:
That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):AndyJS said:Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.
Scottish unionist rebel
John Lamont
Remain-leaning rebels
Heidi Allen
Guto Bebb
Damian Collins
George Freeman
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Jo Johnson
Phillip Lee
Andrew Mitchell
Anna Soubry
Sarah Wollaston
Hard Leave-leaning rebels
Robert Courts
Tracey Crouch
Charlie Elphicke
David Evennett
Michael Fallon
Robert Halfon
Mark Harper
Trudy Harrison
Pauline Latham
Johnny Mercer
Neil Parish
Mark Pritchard
Douglas Ross
Grant Shapps
Hugo Swire
Shailesh Vara
Giles Watling
It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.0 -
Mr. Meeks, "Once it is rejected, all bets are legitimately off."
I hope not
0 -
There's an odd mindset around at the moment, A sort of intellectual arrogance. A majority of people have always considered themselves brighter than average, but modesty used to be considered a virtue.
No longer. Stupidity is in. My opinions are more sensible than others because they're mine. We've always had people opining on subjects they know little about, but they now do it with a vehemence.
That's why democracy is in danger. When people don't accept a majority decision because other people's opinions are worth less.
The Guardian was famous for this, but it's spread widely now.0 -
Those elected to implement Brexit have an obligation to do so in what they judge the best way possible, whether that is the deal or no deal. Their obligation does not vanish because others are behaving like irresponsible idiots.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain-supporting MPs are under no pressure to accept the deal for as long as the true believers in Leave decisively reject it. Once it is rejected, all bets are legitimately off.DavidL said:
The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.kle4 said:
I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.DavidL said:
It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.-1 -
The most succinct reply:rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1082918804815073281
Oh please make it William Hague screams my wallet.
https://twitter.com/stephenj_colvin/status/1082921676042629121
The Tory remain rebels are going to have to quit the party if they wish to actually stop Brexit from happening.
If this happens we are most likely facing an election.0 -
Very true. It's notable how partisan most newspapers and magazines are now compared to 10 or 15 years ago. Most of them used to make a bit of an effort to hide their political slant so that it wasn't totally obvious.CD13 said:There's an odd mindset around at the moment, A sort of intellectual arrogance. A majority of people have always considered themselves brighter than average, but modesty used to be considered a virtue.
No longer. Stupidity is in. My opinions are more sensible than others because they're mine. We've always had people opining on subjects they know little about, but they now do it with a vehemence.
That's why democracy is in danger. When people don't accept a majority decision because other people's opinions are worth less.
The Guardian was famous for this, but it's spread widely now.0 -
It's quite blackly funny, in a Death of Stalin sort of way.DavidL said:
The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.kle4 said:
I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?
It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.0 -
The decision to leave was binary, where we end up is whole HDR palette of shades of grey.Sandpit said:
Thanks for maintaining this list, and what an astonishing position to have so many rebels on all sides. As Mr Dancer said yesterday, the PM has managed to annoy both sides of a binary decision.AlastairMeeks said:
That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):AndyJS said:Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.
Scottish unionist rebel
John Lamont
Remain-leaning rebels
Heidi Allen
Guto Bebb
Damian Collins
George Freeman
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Jo Johnson
Phillip Lee
Andrew Mitchell
Anna Soubry
Sarah Wollaston
Hard Leave-leaning rebels
Robert Courts
Tracey Crouch
Charlie Elphicke
David Evennett
Michael Fallon
Robert Halfon
Mark Harper
Trudy Harrison
Pauline Latham
Johnny Mercer
Neil Parish
Mark Pritchard
Douglas Ross
Grant Shapps
Hugo Swire
Shailesh Vara
Giles Watling
It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
Do we have more than a handful of Con backbenchers (not on the payroll) supporting the deal?
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+1DavidL said:
The fundamental problem remains (hah). The only thing that there has ever been a majority in the Commons for is remain. Some of those still gulp at the democratic outrage of ignoring the largest vote in our history but most have rationalised it to themselves by persuading themselves that we didn't know what we were doing, we were misled by a bus, things have changed, no one ever thought no deal was a possibility (really, I mean come on), May's deal is awful and not what was promised, we really should have another go, whatever.kle4 said:
I think you nail it by calling it displacement activity. The actual choices before them and actions needed for those options are not actually complicated but mps on all sides are dancing around those options, delaying, distracting, focusing on peripheral matters.DavidL said:AIUI Cooper's amendment restricts the ability of the government to make certain tax changes in the event of a no deal Brexit. Of course such tax changes will themselves require legislation which will supersede the amendment (assuming they are passed of course) so the amendment will have no effect.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?
It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.
Do it, then offer themselves up for re-election. Watching their faces at the counts as so many of them face unemployment will be a doozy.0 -
Just imagine the Deal were passed with Remain votes while all the Leavers were, as they are, screaming betrayal. The "stab in the back" myth comes ready-made.DavidL said:
Those elected to implement Brexit have an obligation to do so in what they judge the best way possible, whether that is the deal or no deal. Their obligation does not vanish because others are behaving like irresponsible idiots.
Why on earth should they make themselves the fall-guys for the extremists' irredentists' fantasies? And how could they be confident that they were honouring the vote in any case if those whose project this is almost unanimously think otherwise?
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How would Tory Leavers feel if say Gove came out and publicly said ‘No Deal does NOT honour the referendum’0
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She's backing the deal:AndyJS said:
Thanks for the list. I think Antoinette Sandbach is sometimes also included in the list of Remain rebels.AlastairMeeks said:
That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):AndyJS said:Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.
Scottish unionist rebel
John Lamont
Remain-leaning rebels
Heidi Allen
Guto Bebb
Damian Collins
George Freeman
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Jo Johnson
Phillip Lee
Andrew Mitchell
Anna Soubry
Sarah Wollaston
Hard Leave-leaning rebels
Robert Courts
Tracey Crouch
Charlie Elphicke
David Evennett
Michael Fallon
Robert Halfon
Mark Harper
Trudy Harrison
Pauline Latham
Johnny Mercer
Neil Parish
Mark Pritchard
Douglas Ross
Grant Shapps
Hugo Swire
Shailesh Vara
Giles Watling
It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
https://www.antoinettesandbach.org.uk/news/forty-reasons-back-brexit-deal
If the deal is voted down, she will no doubt be among those pressing for a major rethink.0 -
Sounds like that's those that will vote for the deal because they are whipped to do so, rather than because it's necessarily their preferred course of action.AlastairMeeks said:
Lots, heading to 100 as things currently stand. Few of them, however, voted Leave in 2016. Nearly all of them are what I think of as "quiet lifers".Sandpit said:
Thanks for maintaining this list, and what an astonishing position to have so many rebels on all sides. As Mr Dancer said yesterday, the PM has managed to annoy both sides of a binary decision.AlastairMeeks said:
That's not news. Of the Conservative MPs that didn't vote Leave in 2016, the following are rebels (I hope I do no disservice to their position):AndyJS said:Radio 4: Andrew Mitchell says he doesn't support the deal. Interesting.
Scottish unionist rebel
John Lamont
Remain-leaning rebels
Heidi Allen
Guto Bebb
Damian Collins
George Freeman
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Jo Johnson
Phillip Lee
Andrew Mitchell
Anna Soubry
Sarah Wollaston
Hard Leave-leaning rebels
Robert Courts
Tracey Crouch
Charlie Elphicke
David Evennett
Michael Fallon
Robert Halfon
Mark Harper
Trudy Harrison
Pauline Latham
Johnny Mercer
Neil Parish
Mark Pritchard
Douglas Ross
Grant Shapps
Hugo Swire
Shailesh Vara
Giles Watling
It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
Do we have more than a handful of Con backbenchers (not on the payroll) supporting the deal?
If fewer than 200 vote for the deal it could go down by well over 200 majority - then all bets are seriously off as to what happens next!!0 -
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