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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What LAB and CON party members think about Brexit?
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University to discuss his research on Labour and Conservative Party members – who they are, what they think about Brexit and what this means for the future of British politics.
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1082823394234716160
Today's vote, as a Remainer pundit summarised it, is the equivalent of banning parachutes in the hope of stopping a plane crash. To put it another way, the pilots are going to have a much harder time at the controls if the plane encounters no deal turbulence.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/08/far-stopping-no-deal-brexit-remainers-have-set-much-chaotic/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
As was suggested last night, we could see an invocation of the Civil Contingencies Act if Parliament votes down the deal but then won't support no-deal planning. Having been a leading proponent of that particularly pernicious piece of Blairite over-reach, I'm sure Mrs Cooper will be delighted by its use?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lendlease-builder-that-won-t-pay-to-remove-unsafe-grenfell-style-cladding-wins-190m-deal-2n7s5j92q
Not a great message.
All that's now happening is the politics coming back into alignment with those market fundamentals. All bubbles burst. Why so many PB Brexiters are getting angsty about it is beyond me.
At some point, the box is going to have to be opened and we won't find out if the cat's alive or dead till then.
Of those current MPs who were in Parliament at the time of the referendum vote and who voted Leave, I make it 90 who are currently opposed, 38 in favour (and just 12 of these are backbench MPs) and 9 still considering their position.
But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum
It seems like May actually read the SNP holyrood manifesto unlike many on here.
After a bruising court verdict, Ms Sturgeon apologised publicly to the two female complainants, saying that the ruling was “not a victory for anyone”, and robustly defended the anti-harassment policies that she approved.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/salmond-seeks-revenge-3bk7scxjw
Agree with the morning consensus. The Cooper amendment is either meaningless or stupid.
A 15% probability IMO.
Who'd have guessed?
Elect Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Labour have it in the bag
"Extra time to get our shit together" won't remotely cut it.
The decision to pull the MV remains one of the most baffling and pointless decisions May has taken. It's achieved nothing, not even it's aim of staving off a challenge. Seriously, what will have been achieved? No one has shifted position, at best we might get a lukewarm platitude from the EU and perhaps not even that, and we haven't even started up full prep for No deal.
What a waste of time.
Tory and Labour movers are poles apart on Brexit, even more so than May and Corbyn
I think this is a serious crunch time for his presidency, there's no way he's going to back down on what was his signature campaign policy. That wall has to be well under construction before the election if he's to retain any credibility among his supporters.
Let's see what Chuck Schumer has to say. How long before people get really fed up with the shutdown?
Of all the political groups out there, of MPs and party members, it’s the Conservative parliamentary party that is probably the most representative of the nation at the moment.
I am sure it is just me but what was the point of this? If it was to show that there is and always has been a majority for remain in the House of Commons, despite the vast majority of them being elected on manifestos committed to implementing Brexit this is hardly news. If it was to show that this government no longer has a majority for pretty much anything including Finance bills that is hardly news either. If it was to highlight the fact that the Tory party is no longer a functioning or coherent whole capable of providing governance I suppose it had some effect, something the rebels might have reflected upon.
What I think we are actually seeing is yet more displacement activity by virtue signalers who are so sure of their own views. I suppose we have to fill in the unconscionable delays imposed by the PM with something. 5 more days of Brexit debate. What on earth is there still to say? Who on earth do these windbags think is still listening?
Last night's vote could have led to a GE, were it not for the FTPA.
Here's a thing. Imagine you're a Remainer type MP. What's your approach to May's deal now? Do you see momentum on your side and vote it down to try and compel Referendum 2: Refer Harder, or do you vote for it as the least bad option?
It's all pretty pointless. We know what core groups want and what three options are possible. Just pick one, stop tweaking and pressuring and on and on and on. They don't even need to wait for the MV for everyone to just be clear what they seek.
But they don't have the balls to say so explicitly, because most of their constituents voted to leave the EU, and they were elected on a manifesto commitment to leave the EU following the referendum result.
That said, it's not clear that rest of the member states would unanimously agree to put up with an irritation just so the British can faff around some more.
Scottish unionist rebel
John Lamont
Remain-leaning rebels
Heidi Allen
Guto Bebb
Damian Collins
George Freeman
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Jo Johnson
Phillip Lee
Andrew Mitchell
Anna Soubry
Sarah Wollaston
Hard Leave-leaning rebels
Robert Courts
Tracey Crouch
Charlie Elphicke
David Evennett
Michael Fallon
Robert Halfon
Mark Harper
Trudy Harrison
Pauline Latham
Johnny Mercer
Neil Parish
Mark Pritchard
Douglas Ross
Grant Shapps
Hugo Swire
Shailesh Vara
Giles Watling
It should be noted that the backstop features on both Remain and Leave leaning lists and some MPs are surprisingly hard to sift.
Speed and cadence are also important, so as you say his team had the autocue running at a much slower pace to how he usually speaks.
Its pathetic and we all know ultimately they are going to prevent Brexit. This rationalisation process is just embarrassing. The damage to our country will be incalculable, far worse than even a no deal Brexit would have caused. But I am beginning to wish that they would just get on with it and stop the whining.
All green on the referendum situation itself, so not inclined to back something at 2.75 I got better odds on, but if I had no skin in the market I'd be contemplating that.
Mr. Roger, sure, if you want to cast racial aspersions you could take that view. Or you could say that those with longer historical ties to this nation take a patriotic stance.
Or we could say that the country is very divided, almost exactly evenly, on this matter and there are legitimate arguments for and against. Being pro-EU or anti-EU is not the reserve of the moral or immoral, the stupid or wise. Despite the abysmal referendum campaigns, both are rational perspectives with reasonable arguments on their side.
Do we have more than a handful of Con backbenchers (not on the payroll) supporting the deal?
Oh please make it William Hague screams my wallet.
I hope not
No longer. Stupidity is in. My opinions are more sensible than others because they're mine. We've always had people opining on subjects they know little about, but they now do it with a vehemence.
That's why democracy is in danger. When people don't accept a majority decision because other people's opinions are worth less.
The Guardian was famous for this, but it's spread widely now.
https://twitter.com/stephenj_colvin/status/1082921676042629121
The Tory remain rebels are going to have to quit the party if they wish to actually stop Brexit from happening.
If this happens we are most likely facing an election.
Do it, then offer themselves up for re-election. Watching their faces at the counts as so many of them face unemployment will be a doozy.
Why on earth should they make themselves the fall-guys for the extremists' irredentists' fantasies? And how could they be confident that they were honouring the vote in any case if those whose project this is almost unanimously think otherwise?
https://www.antoinettesandbach.org.uk/news/forty-reasons-back-brexit-deal
If the deal is voted down, she will no doubt be among those pressing for a major rethink.
If fewer than 200 vote for the deal it could go down by well over 200 majority - then all bets are seriously off as to what happens next!!
https://twitter.com/bbcradiolincs/status/1082918456033464325?s=21