politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Shutdown: Who blinks, who loses?
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On topic the "essential" employees are still working without pay which kind of keeps things running. At some point they walk out and things really start shutting down. At that point I think Fox and Friends tell Trump it's time to stop dicking around and he takes some face-saver deal.0
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They’ve always been paid in the past. They just have to wait...edmundintokyo said:On topic the "essential" employees are still working without pay which kind of keeps things running. At some point they walk out and things really start shutting down. At that point I think Fox and Friends tell Trump it's time to stop dicking around and he takes some face-saver deal.
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If you get down that way, I am very fond of Osterley Park (the house is a monstrosity Mrs Child’s garden is fabulous).JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
I did a walk today. During it, I saw two foxes (one seemed as large as a large dog), a herd of wild deer (one with massive fuck-off antlers), and loads of squirrels, ducks, geese etc. All were fairly unbothered about my presence - the deer allowed me to get within about thirty metres of them before they ambled into the trees.
I wouldn't mention this, except the entire walk was well within the borders of the M25. London can be surprisingly rural.0 -
Chicks can be sexed at day old. Unwanted male chicks can be killed at day old and used as food for other animals. For example snakes or owls.Stereotomy said:
It's often cheaper to kill male calves and chicks than to raise them for meat, so they're dying for your milk and eggs. Even if they are sold on, they're still then going to be raised and slaughtered for meat, which vegans are unlikely to want to support even indirectly (I'm not completely sure, but it seems likely that the increase in supply of animals would lower the price, and so it'd subsidise meat-eating).Philip_Thompson said:
Which animals are killed in milk production?
Yours reads like an anti-abortion rant.
In theory you could have farms which keep all the animals produced as a side-effect of egg and dairy production and let them live out their natural lifespan. Possibly this exists somewhere, targeted at animal welfare-conscious consumers, but it's certainly not the norm, and would be extremely expensive.
Honestly this is all pretty obvious and widely known, so I'm not sure which part you were having trouble with.
Traditionally animals were often dual-purpose. So even from egg laying breeds of chicken or milking breeds of cows the males were meaty enough to raised for meat at a sensible cost. This is no-longer mainstream as having more specialised breeds makes more economic sense commercially.
I have posted elsewhere how the numbers of unwanted male calves can be managed. By altering the incubation conditions precisely it is possible to cause the majority of chicks hatched to be male or female (as the other gender will not make it). However the precision needed is not currently commercially viable.0 -
While they're waiting they still have bills to pay. There are already reports of TSA workers calling in sick so they can earn the money to pay the rent.notme2 said:
They’ve always been paid in the past. They just have to wait...edmundintokyo said:On topic the "essential" employees are still working without pay which kind of keeps things running. At some point they walk out and things really start shutting down. At that point I think Fox and Friends tell Trump it's time to stop dicking around and he takes some face-saver deal.
There have been shutdowns before, but the longest was 21 days. This one has already gone 2 weeks, and there's never been a president as incompetent as Trump, so it could easily drag on until the government *really* shuts down.0 -
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Remain isn’t an option. People were asked and decided no.williamglenn said:0 -
If the dairy cow had been mated with a beef breed like a Limousin the calf would last about 26 months.Charles said:
Dairy cows need to be perpetually pregnant (virtually). The calves don’t last long.Philip_Thompson said:
Which animals are killed in milk production?Stereotomy said:
Animals absolutely are killed in the production of eggs and milk. The fact that you're more removed from it as a result of not eating their flesh is really pretty irrelevant.HYUFD said:
Except no animals are killed when you eat eggs and dairy as opposed to meat and you reduce the amount of protein you have even further and need to find alternatives to help protect your bones.Stereotomy said:
I'm a pescatarian, but I expect vegetarianism to continue to be squeezed by veganism as a long term trend. There's really no fundamental difference between the harm caused by eggs and dairy Vs the harm caused by meat. It's become so much easier to get a healthy diet as a vegan recently, and that seems like a trend that will self-reinforce rather than run out.Benpointer said:
Yes. It took over The Grauniad some time ago of course. I suspect we will reach peak-Vegan sometime this year.geoffw said:
Luckily he's fallen on his feet. Veganism has taken over the BBC as I write.Benpointer said:
Sitwell's 'joke' was pretty crass though - I think he had to go.geoffw said:
No thanks. Why are you posting it?ydoethur said:If anyone wants to read a very disturbing story:
Arizona police investigate after 'vegetative patient gives birth'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46768242
Be warned, it is not a nice story at all.
In more positive news, the Telegraph has employed William Sitwell (sacked by Waitrose because he outraged vegans with a joke) as restaurant critic, and my old buddy Peter Lilley has found 30 reasons to be cheerful about no deal.
(I expect it's more reasonable cousin Vegetarianism to continue to grow in popularity however.)
The real issue is improving conditions in abattoirs and farms, organic farming in particular is becoming more attractive.
My sister is a vegetarian but I myself have always taken the view that we as long as tigers, lions, wolves, crocodiles etc eat meat then so will I
And, er, okay? I'm happy with you making whatever dietry choice you want, but I'm not sure justifying it by saying you hold yourself to the moral standards of other species is a winner
Yours reads like an anti-abortion rant.0 -
Remain is an option because we remain a democracy.Charles said:
Remain isn’t an option. People were asked and decided no.williamglenn said:0 -
It is only an option if you have a government that will legislate for it and a majority of mps who support it.williamglenn said:
Remain is an option because we remain a democracy.Charles said:
Remain isn’t an option. People were asked and decided no.williamglenn said:
It fails on both points at present
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Rejoin is an option because we remain a democracy.williamglenn said:
Remain is an option because we remain a democracy.Charles said:
Remain isn’t an option. People were asked and decided no.williamglenn said:
Remain is the only option guaranteed to destroy our democracy.0 -
This is a similar process: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/22/worlds-first-no-kill-eggs-go-on-sale-in-berlinPlank said:
Chicks can be sexed at day old. Unwanted male chicks can be killed at day old and used as food for other animals. For example snakes or owls.Stereotomy said:
It's often cheaper to kill male calves and chicks than to raise them for meat, so they're dying for your milk and eggs. Even if they are sold on, they're still then going to be raised and slaughtered for meat, which vegans are unlikely to want to support even indirectly (I'm not completely sure, but it seems likely that the increase in supply of animals would lower the price, and so it'd subsidise meat-eating).Philip_Thompson said:
Which animals are killed in milk production?
Yours reads like an anti-abortion rant.
In theory you could have farms which keep all the animals produced as a side-effect of egg and dairy production and let them live out their natural lifespan. Possibly this exists somewhere, targeted at animal welfare-conscious consumers, but it's certainly not the norm, and would be extremely expensive.
Honestly this is all pretty obvious and widely known, so I'm not sure which part you were having trouble with.
Traditionally animals were often dual-purpose. So even from egg laying breeds of chicken or milking breeds of cows the males were meaty enough to raised for meat at a sensible cost. This is no-longer mainstream as having more specialised breeds makes more economic sense commercially.
I have posted elsewhere how the numbers of unwanted male calves can be managed. By altering the incubation conditions precisely it is possible to cause the majority of chicks hatched to be male or female (as the other gender will not make it). However the precision needed is not currently commercially viable.
Not sure if this'll ever go mainstream, but would be great if so0 -
+1Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is only an option if you have a government that will legislate for it and a majority of mps who support it.williamglenn said:
Remain is an option because we remain a democracy.Charles said:
Remain isn’t an option. People were asked and decided no.williamglenn said:
It fails on both points at present0 -
Incidentally, Steve Richard's series "Reflections: The Prime Ministers We Never Had" is still on iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx50
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The only thing it would destroy is your illusions, and we can manage without them.Mortimer said:
Rejoin is an option because we remain a democracy.williamglenn said:
Remain is an option because we remain a democracy.Charles said:
Remain isn’t an option. People were asked and decided no.williamglenn said:
Remain is the only option guaranteed to destroy our democracy.0 -
When is he doing May?viewcode said:Incidentally, Steve Richard's series "Reflections: The Prime Ministers We Never Had" is still on iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx5
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That is very strong polling for Remain.williamglenn said:
Interesting.0 -
Has he covered Gavin Williamson yet?rottenborough said:
When is he doing May?viewcode said:Incidentally, Steve Richard's series "Reflections: The Prime Ministers We Never Had" is still on iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx5
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rottenborough said:
When is he doing May?viewcode said:Incidentally, Steve Richard's series "Reflections: The Prime Ministers We Never Had" is still on iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx5
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WhoAnazina said:
Has he covered Gavin Williamson yet?rottenborough said:
When is he doing May?viewcode said:Incidentally, Steve Richard's series "Reflections: The Prime Ministers We Never Had" is still on iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx5
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Interesting.Stereotomy said:
This is a similar process: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/22/worlds-first-no-kill-eggs-go-on-sale-in-berlinPlank said:
Chicks can be sexed at day old. Unwanted male chicks can be killed at day old and used as food for other animals. For example snakes or owls.Stereotomy said:
It's often cheaper to kill male calves and chicks than to raise them for meat, so they're dying for your milk and eggs. Even if they are sold on, they're still then going to be raised and slaughtered for meat, which vegans are unlikely to want to support even indirectly (I'm not completely sure, but it seems likely that the increase in supply of animals would lower the price, and so it'd subsidise meat-eating).Philip_Thompson said:
Which animals are killed in milk production?
Yours reads like an anti-abortion rant.
In theory you could have farms which keep all the animals produced as a side-effect of egg and dairy production and let them live out their natural lifespan. Possibly this exists somewhere, targeted at animal welfare-conscious consumers, but it's certainly not the norm, and would be extremely expensive.
Honestly this is all pretty obvious and widely known, so I'm not sure which part you were having trouble with.
Traditionally animals were often dual-purpose. So even from egg laying breeds of chicken or milking breeds of cows the males were meaty enough to raised for meat at a sensible cost. This is no-longer mainstream as having more specialised breeds makes more economic sense commercially.
I have posted elsewhere how the numbers of unwanted male calves can be managed. By altering the incubation conditions precisely it is possible to cause the majority of chicks hatched to be male or female (as the other gender will not make it). However the precision needed is not currently commercially viable.
Not sure if this'll ever go mainstream, but would be great if so
I would just like to say that the culling method described, of feeding live chicks into a grinder, would be illegal in the UK.
Thank you for posting the article.0 -
The G-Dogg is doomed to be the one that got awayBig_G_NorthWales said:
WhoAnazina said:
Has he covered Gavin Williamson yet?rottenborough said:
When is he doing May?viewcode said:Incidentally, Steve Richard's series "Reflections: The Prime Ministers We Never Had" is still on iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx5
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Vaguely on topic:
Trump is about as good with numbers as Abbott.
Apple up 100s of % since he came to office apparently.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/01/04/trump-apple-earnings-downgrade-comments/
How long is that wall again?0 -
Remarkable to think that the presidential election is next year.0
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At this point in the last electoral cycle we were only six months away from Trump coming down the escalator to announce he was running.Anazina said:Remarkable to think that the presidential election is next year.
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Can't come fast enough. At least there is a chance...Anazina said:Remarkable to think that the presidential election is next year.
Enter Romney stage right, bearing a McCarthy primary spoiler campaign?0 -
Yougov swings all over the place, only a few weeks ago it had Remain 50% Deal 50% and Remain 52% No Deal 48%.williamglenn said:
Overall it is Remain 54% Leave 46% which is not too far from the Remain 52% Leave 48% final Yougov poll in 2016
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/10816826567341260850 -
The nlw will probably be about £10 by end of parliament anyway. Labour introduced the wca and sanctions, brought in the bedroom assessment as part of housing benefit in private tenancies, and the UC despite it flaws is much better than what it replaces.rottenborough said:0 -
if true, then it is very late in the day for buyer's remorse.Anazina said:
That is very strong polling for Remain.williamglenn said:
Interesting.
But maybe not too late...0 -
You are not taking results from head-to-head polls. Any serious analysis shows that Remain has significant leads at the moment.HYUFD said:
Yougov swings all over the place, only a few weeks ago it had Remain 50% Deal 50% and Remain 52% No Deal 48%williamglenn said:0 -
McDonnell would tell you that NEW labour introduced WCA.notme2 said:
The nlw will probably be about £10 by end of parliament anyway. Labour introduced the wca and sanctions, brought in the bedroom assessment as part of housing benefit in private tenancies, and the UC despite it flaws is much better than what it replaces.rottenborough said:
Obviously they were Blairite scum Tory loving child eaters posing as christian socialists etc etc etc...0 -
Is there a UK registered plane: G-DOGG?Anazina said:
The G-Dogg is doomed to be the one that got awayBig_G_NorthWales said:
WhoAnazina said:
Has he covered Gavin Williamson yet?rottenborough said:
When is he doing May?viewcode said:Incidentally, Steve Richard's series "Reflections: The Prime Ministers We Never Had" is still on iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx5
Golf - Delta Oscar Golf Golf requesting permission for take off...0 -
Labour plunges to just 34% ie Kinnock 1992 levels while the LDs jump to 10% and double figures, Tories largely unchanged on 40%.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec
First signs of Remainers moving from Labour to the LDs as Corbyn still refuses to commit to back EUref2?0 -
Perhaps unsurprisingly, there is a G-DOGG, and it's one of these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Aviation_Bulldogrcs1000 said:
Is there a UK registered plane: G-DOGG?Anazina said:
The G-Dogg is doomed to be the one that got awayBig_G_NorthWales said:
WhoAnazina said:
Has he covered Gavin Williamson yet?rottenborough said:
When is he doing May?viewcode said:Incidentally, Steve Richard's series "Reflections: The Prime Ministers We Never Had" is still on iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx5
Golf - Delta Oscar Golf Golf requesting permission for take off...0 -
I have been pondering such a scenario - there’s nothing to stop a wealthy Republican acting as a stalking horse for the good of the country. Romney or A.N. Other could pose the increasingly ludicrous Trumpton something of a concern in that respect.rottenborough said:
Can't come fast enough. At least there is a chance...Anazina said:Remarkable to think that the presidential election is next year.
Enter Romney stage right, bearing a McCarthy primary spoiler campaign?0 -
Who told us to be wary of polls conducted over Bank Holiday periods? This was carried out over an extended 2 week period - which in itself makes it difficult to compare with earlier polls.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec0 -
Hmm. Personally I aint gonna trust any poll undertaken during Xmas period.HYUFD said:
Labour plunges to just 34% ie Kinnock 1992 levels while the LDs jump to 10% and double figures, Tories largely unchanged on 40%.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec
First signs of Remainers moving from Labour to the LDs as Corbyn still refuses to commit to back EUref2?
Let's see if it is replicated in a week or two's time.0 -
I agree. getting the feeling that Romney is so pissed he will run just to cause a potential upset.Anazina said:
I have been pondering such a scenario - there’s nothing to stop a wealthy Republican acting as a stalking horse for the good of the country. Romney or A.N. Other could pose the increasingly ludicrous Trumpton something of a concern in that respect.rottenborough said:
Can't come fast enough. At least there is a chance...Anazina said:Remarkable to think that the presidential election is next year.
Enter Romney stage right, bearing a McCarthy primary spoiler campaign?
He is available as Rep candidate at 24 on BF.
If he does throw his hat in, that should halve at least surely?0 -
Quite possibly. I don’t see Romney standing much of a chance of winning the nomination, but I think he’ll be delighted to simply have the opportunity to publicly trash Trumpton on a daily basis, with a view to opening the door to another.rottenborough said:
I agree. getting the feeling that Romney is so pissed he will run just to cause a potential upset.Anazina said:
I have been pondering such a scenario - there’s nothing to stop a wealthy Republican acting as a stalking horse for the good of the country. Romney or A.N. Other could pose the increasingly ludicrous Trumpton something of a concern in that respect.rottenborough said:
Can't come fast enough. At least there is a chance...Anazina said:Remarkable to think that the presidential election is next year.
Enter Romney stage right, bearing a McCarthy primary spoiler campaign?
He is available as Rep candidate at 24 on BF.
If he does throw his hat in, that should halve at least surely?0 -
Hmm. That's also way out of line with recent polls. Treat with caution...williamglenn said:0 -
He's just said he's not running, though I suppose he might change his mind.Anazina said:
Quite possibly. I don’t see Romney standing much of a chance of winning the nomination, but I think he’ll be delighted to simply have the opportunity to publicly trash Trumpton on a daily basis, with a view to opening the door to another.0 -
They were results after preferences given in a 3 way Remain, Deal and No Deal vote Remain is unlikely to get over 50%.williamglenn said:
You are not taking results from head-to-head polls. Any serious analysis shows that Remain has significant leads at the moment.HYUFD said:
Yougov swings all over the place, only a few weeks ago it had Remain 50% Deal 50% and Remain 52% No Deal 48%williamglenn said:
In any case the most likely EUref2 would be a straight Remain v Leave, which Yougov has as Remain 54% Leave 46% ie close to its wrong final 2016 poll.
If Leave won that then it would be a Deal v No Deal question the Deal likely wins0 -
“It’s just for fun”.... it was a peoplesvote push poll.justin124 said:
Who told us to be wary of polls conducted over Bank Holiday periods? This was carried out over an extended 2 week period - which in itself makes it difficult to compare with earlier polls.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec0 -
With these Deal polls you really need to see what the Don't Knows look like. If mentioning the deal swings a bunch of Leavers to Don't Know, there's a good chance they're just reluctant to say anything positive about the deal. But a Remain vs Deal referendum would really be a Remain vs Leave referendum, and all the arguments would be Remain vs Leave arguments. In that situation I'd expect most of them would go back to Leave, although turnout is a bit hard to read.NickPalmer said:
Hmm. That's also way out of line with recent polls. Treat with caution...williamglenn said:0 -
What do you mean by push poll?notme2 said:
“It’s just for fun”.... it was a peoplesvote push poll.justin124 said:
Who told us to be wary of polls conducted over Bank Holiday periods? This was carried out over an extended 2 week period - which in itself makes it difficult to compare with earlier polls.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec0 -
Watching him on CNN, saying I am not running... I'm not convinced. We will all see soon enough.NickPalmer said:
He's just said he's not running, though I suppose he might change his mind.Anazina said:
Quite possibly. I don’t see Romney standing much of a chance of winning the nomination, but I think he’ll be delighted to simply have the opportunity to publicly trash Trumpton on a daily basis, with a view to opening the door to another.0 -
In a Remain v Deal referendum, most of the prominent Brexiteers would act as spoilers rather than pulling their weight for the Leave campaign. Farage would say the establishment had rigged it; Hannan would call for a boycott, etc.edmundintokyo said:
With these Deal polls you really need to see what the Don't Knows look like. If mentioning the deal swings a bunch of Leavers to Don't Know, there's a good chance they're just reluctant to say anything positive about the deal. But a Remain vs Deal referendum would really be a Remain vs Leave referendum, and all the arguments would be Remain vs Leave arguments. In that situation I'd expect most of them would go back to Leave, although turnout is a bit hard to read.NickPalmer said:
Hmm. That's also way out of line with recent polls. Treat with caution...williamglenn said:0 -
"I wasn't going to run, but today's revelation of [corrupt Trump thing] leaves me no alternative..."rottenborough said:
Watching him on CNN, saying I am not running... I'm not convinced. We will all see soon enough.NickPalmer said:
He's just said he's not running, though I suppose he might change his mind.Anazina said:
Quite possibly. I don’t see Romney standing much of a chance of winning the nomination, but I think he’ll be delighted to simply have the opportunity to publicly trash Trumpton on a daily basis, with a view to opening the door to another.0 -
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum under a Tory PM as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.williamglenn said:
In a Remain v Deal referendum, most of the prominent Brexiteers would act as spoilers rather than pulling their weight for the Leave campaign. Farage would say the establishment had rigged it; Hannan would call for a boycott, etc.edmundintokyo said:
With these Deal polls you really need to see what the Don't Knows look like. If mentioning the deal swings a bunch of Leavers to Don't Know, there's a good chance they're just reluctant to say anything positive about the deal. But a Remain vs Deal referendum would really be a Remain vs Leave referendum, and all the arguments would be Remain vs Leave arguments. In that situation I'd expect most of them would go back to Leave, although turnout is a bit hard to read.NickPalmer said:
Hmm. That's also way out of line with recent polls. Treat with caution...williamglenn said:
The only possible referendums while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal or Leave with No Deal v Leave with a Deal and no Remain option at all given Remain lost the last referendum leaving the choice just on the means of leaving0 -
In a Remain v Deal referendum, most of the prominent Brexiteers would act as spoilers rather than pulling their weight for the Leave campaign. Farage would say the establishment had rigged it; Hannan would call for a boycott, etc.williamglenn said:
With these Deal polls you really need to see what the Don't Knows look like. If mentioning the deal swings a bunch of Leavers to Don't Know, there's a good chance they're just reluctant to say anything positive about the deal. But a Remain vs Deal referendum would really be a Remain vs Leave referendum, and all the arguments would be Remain vs Leave arguments. In that situation I'd expect most of them would go back to Leave, although turnout is a bit hard to read.
Hmm, dunno, I think they might suddenly see the merit of the deal...0 -
No it isn't, Nick. The YouGov poll from earlier in December had Remain: 59%, Deal: 41% or 63/37 on those certain to vote.NickPalmer said:
Hmm. That's also way out of line with recent polls. Treat with caution...williamglenn said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5v5qj2t7c8/PVResults_181214_Brexit_w.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote0 -
They’ve managed to achieve a very pro remain set of results and headline figures for strong support for a second referendum. The client has managed to get the responses it wants by asking the questions in the way it wanted. There is a risk this has contaminated the voting intention question. A dozen questions on Brexit and then a VI...edmundintokyo said:
What do you mean by push poll?notme2 said:
“It’s just for fun”.... it was a peoplesvote push poll.justin124 said:
Who told us to be wary of polls conducted over Bank Holiday periods? This was carried out over an extended 2 week period - which in itself makes it difficult to compare with earlier polls.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec0 -
Or the merit of a betrayal narrative...edmundintokyo said:
Hmm, dunno, I think they might suddenly see the merit of the deal...williamglenn said:In a Remain v Deal referendum, most of the prominent Brexiteers would act as spoilers rather than pulling their weight for the Leave campaign. Farage would say the establishment had rigged it; Hannan would call for a boycott, etc.
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A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???HYUFD said:
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.
The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal0 -
Is that how it was done? Do you have the detail?notme2 said:
They’ve managed to achieve a very pro remain set of results and headline figures for strong support for a second referendum. The client has managed to get the responses it wants by asking the questions in the way it wanted. There is a risk this has contaminated the voting intention question. A dozen questions on Brexit and then a VI...edmundintokyo said:
What do you mean by push poll?notme2 said:
“It’s just for fun”.... it was a peoplesvote push poll.justin124 said:
Who told us to be wary of polls conducted over Bank Holiday periods? This was carried out over an extended 2 week period - which in itself makes it difficult to compare with earlier polls.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec0 -
Only because No Dealers would boycott it.williamglenn said:
No it isn't, Nick. The YouGov poll from earlier in December had Remain: 59%, Deal: 41% or 63/37 on those certain to vote.NickPalmer said:
Hmm. That's also way out of line with recent polls. Treat with caution...williamglenn said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5v5qj2t7c8/PVResults_181214_Brexit_w.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote
As I said there will never be a Remain v Deal referendum question under a Tory PM so it is pointless asking it unless we have a change of government.
The only referendum a majority of Tory MPs might support is Deal v No Deal and no Remain option at all or at most Remain v Leave and if Leave wins Leave with the Deal or No Deal0 -
edmundintokyo said:
"I wasn't going to run, but today's revelation of [corrupt Trump thing] leaves me no alternative..."rottenborough said:
Watching him on CNN, saying I am not running... I'm not convinced. We will all see soon enough.NickPalmer said:
He's just said he's not running, though I suppose he might change his mind.Anazina said:
Quite possibly. I don’t see Romney standing much of a chance of winning the nomination, but I think he’ll be delighted to simply have the opportunity to publicly trash Trumpton on a daily basis, with a view to opening the door to another.
0 -
PS Technically a push poll is designed to change opinion, not the poll result. It's a fake poll: You get a call asking, "Does the news that your Democratic candidate tried to fuck a whale make you less likely to support them?" They don't care how you answer, the point is to communicate the whale-related oppo.
* Alternatively "Does the news that your Libertarian candidate lied when he said he tried to fuck a whale..."0 -
As you also said, Remain v Deal is more likely and is being prepared by civil servants:HYUFD said:As I said there will never be a Remain v Deal referendum question under a Tory PM so it is pointless asking it unless we have a change of government.
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2122568/#Comment_2122568HYUFD said:On that basis then Remain v Deal is more likely ie the first question civil servants are preparing for
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Absolutely. 200 Tory MPs back the Deal, 100 back No Deal barely a handful back Remain.edmundintokyo said:
A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???HYUFD said:
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.
The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal
I can see May calling a Leave with the Deal or No Deal referendum as a last resort and it scraping through with DUP and Labour Leaver support. I cannot see May ever calling a Remain v Deal referendum0 -
The question isn't whether they back Remain, it's whether they'd accept a referendum with Remain as an option as the price of getting the deal through.HYUFD said:
Absolutely. 200 Tory MPs back the Deal, 100 back No Deal barely a handful back Remain.edmundintokyo said:
A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???HYUFD said:
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.
The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal
I can see May calling a Leave with the Deal or No Deal referendum as a last resort and it scraping through with DUP and Labour Leaver support. I cannot see May ever calling a Remain v Deal referendum0 -
No just speculating as to why the poll is an outlier in a few of its core results.edmundintokyo said:
Is that how it was done? Do you have the detail?notme2 said:
They’ve managed to achieve a very pro remain set of results and headline figures for strong support for a second referendum. The client has managed to get the responses it wants by asking the questions in the way it wanted. There is a risk this has contaminated the voting intention question. A dozen questions on Brexit and then a VI...edmundintokyo said:
What do you mean by push poll?notme2 said:
“It’s just for fun”.... it was a peoplesvote push poll.justin124 said:
Who told us to be wary of polls conducted over Bank Holiday periods? This was carried out over an extended 2 week period - which in itself makes it difficult to compare with earlier polls.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec0 -
Nope as civil servants also prepared a Leave v Remain and then Leave with the Deal or No Deal question.williamglenn said:
As you also said, Remain v Deal is more likely and is being prepared by civil servants:HYUFD said:As I said there will never be a Remain v Deal referendum question under a Tory PM so it is pointless asking it unless we have a change of government.
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2122568/#Comment_2122568HYUFD said:On that basis then Remain v Deal is more likely ie the first question civil servants are preparing for
However regardless of what civil servants think it has to get past the governing party and Deal v Remain will never get past the Tory party while the party membership would be in open revolt at such a question.
Deal v No Deal and no Remain option at all is more likely and May is rumoured to be considering that as a last resort0 -
Probably not and certainly not without a No Deal option tooedmundintokyo said:
The question isn't whether they back Remain, it's whether they'd accept a referendum with Remain as an option as the price of getting the deal through.HYUFD said:
Absolutely. 200 Tory MPs back the Deal, 100 back No Deal barely a handful back Remain.edmundintokyo said:
A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???HYUFD said:
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.
The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal
I can see May calling a Leave with the Deal or No Deal referendum as a last resort and it scraping through with DUP and Labour Leaver support. I cannot see May ever calling a Remain v Deal referendum0 -
Fairy nuff, but your original comment didn't read as "just speculating"...notme2 said:
No just speculating as to why the poll is an outlier in a few of its core results.edmundintokyo said:
Is that how it was done? Do you have the detail?notme2 said:
They’ve managed to achieve a very pro remain set of results and headline figures for strong support for a second referendum. The client has managed to get the responses it wants by asking the questions in the way it wanted. There is a risk this has contaminated the voting intention question. A dozen questions on Brexit and then a VI...edmundintokyo said:
What do you mean by push poll?notme2 said:
“It’s just for fun”.... it was a peoplesvote push poll.justin124 said:
Who told us to be wary of polls conducted over Bank Holiday periods? This was carried out over an extended 2 week period - which in itself makes it difficult to compare with earlier polls.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec0 -
Are you sticking with your estimate of 300 rebels???HYUFD said:
Probably not and certainly not without a No Deal option tooedmundintokyo said:
The question isn't whether they back Remain, it's whether they'd accept a referendum with Remain as an option as the price of getting the deal through.HYUFD said:
Absolutely. 200 Tory MPs back the Deal, 100 back No Deal barely a handful back Remain.edmundintokyo said:
A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???HYUFD said:
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.
The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal
I can see May calling a Leave with the Deal or No Deal referendum as a last resort and it scraping through with DUP and Labour Leaver support. I cannot see May ever calling a Remain v Deal referendum0 -
A "push poll" is a poll intended not to elicit information but to make people vote differently, e.g. "The Conservatives are planning to kill your children: do you approve or disapprove?". They'e quite popular in the States but we don't do that much in the UK.edmundintokyo said:What do you mean by push poll?
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That's what a push poll is, but not what @notme2 meant...viewcode said:
A "push poll" is a poll intended not to elicit information but to make people vote differently, e.g. "The Conservatives are planning to kill your children: do you approve or disapprove?". They'e quite popular in the States but we don't do that much in the UK.edmundintokyo said:What do you mean by push poll?
I don't think we have a good word for a Sir Humphrey-style poll that tries to bias its own results, so I guess you can't blame people for repurposing "push poll".0 -
May would never call a Remain v Deal referendum anyway so it would not be an issue but it would certainly not get past the Tory partyedmundintokyo said:
Are you sticking with your estimate of 300 rebels???HYUFD said:
Probably not and certainly not without a No Deal option tooedmundintokyo said:
The question isn't whether they back Remain, it's whether they'd accept a referendum with Remain as an option as the price of getting the deal through.HYUFD said:
Absolutely. 200 Tory MPs back the Deal, 100 back No Deal barely a handful back Remain.edmundintokyo said:
A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???HYUFD said:
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.
The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal
I can see May calling a Leave with the Deal or No Deal referendum as a last resort and it scraping through with DUP and Labour Leaver support. I cannot see May ever calling a Remain v Deal referendum0 -
I guess not..edmundintokyo said:
That's what a puh poll is, but not what @notme2 meant...viewcode said:
A "push poll" is a poll intended not to elicit information but to make people vote differently, e.g. "The Conservatives are planning to kill your children: do you approve or disapprove?". They'e quite popular in the States but we don't do that much in the UK.edmundintokyo said:What do you mean by push poll?
0 -
Maybe we should go with Sir Humphrey Poll...notme2 said:
I guess not..edmundintokyo said:
That's what a puh poll is, but not what @notme2 meant...viewcode said:
A "push poll" is a poll intended not to elicit information but to make people vote differently, e.g. "The Conservatives are planning to kill your children: do you approve or disapprove?". They'e quite popular in the States but we don't do that much in the UK.edmundintokyo said:What do you mean by push poll?
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Why would Tory MPs who are voting for the deal want a no deal option?HYUFD said:
Probably not and certainly not without a No Deal option tooedmundintokyo said:
The question isn't whether they back Remain, it's whether they'd accept a referendum with Remain as an option as the price of getting the deal through.HYUFD said:
Absolutely. 200 Tory MPs back the Deal, 100 back No Deal barely a handful back Remain.edmundintokyo said:
A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???HYUFD said:
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.
The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal
I can see May calling a Leave with the Deal or No Deal referendum as a last resort and it scraping through with DUP and Labour Leaver support. I cannot see May ever calling a Remain v Deal referendum0 -
An overly-neglected point. A referendum can only be between the three remaining (ouch) options: Remain, Deal, No Deal. But Remain cannot be on the ballot paper because it's already been asked, and No Deal cannot be on the ballot paper because it's disastrous. Plus it's too late for a referendum anyway. Oh lord, it's a big steaming mess.williamglenn said:
Why would Tory MPs who are voting for the deal want a no deal option?HYUFD said:
Probably not and certainly not without a No Deal option tooedmundintokyo said:
The question isn't whether they back Remain, it's whether they'd accept a referendum with Remain as an option as the price of getting the deal through.HYUFD said:
Absolutely. 200 Tory MPs back the Deal, 100 back No Deal barely a handful back Remain.edmundintokyo said:
A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???HYUFD said:
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.
The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal
I can see May calling a Leave with the Deal or No Deal referendum as a last resort and it scraping through with DUP and Labour Leaver support. I cannot see May ever calling a Remain v Deal referendum0 -
Trump, Brexit, Gilet Jaune.williamglenn said:
Same shit, different passport.0 -
By this rationale, several bits of recent political slang are clearly on their way out too. “Woke”, briefly popular to playfully describe someone politically enlightened and on the left, peaked in Google searches in May 2017; it seems primarily to be used sarcastically, either by woke types themselves deriding the faux-woke, or by conservatives belittling the whole woke enterprise. It is headed the same way as “social-justice warrior”, a phrase meaning roughly the same thing as “woke”, which travelled the same road from lionising self-description to gibe. It is now such a cliché, even as an insult, that it, too, is ready for the junk heap (or perhaps, in keeping with its meaning, the charity shop).
https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2019/01/05/hipsters-rip0 -
Neither major party wants a referendum - if forced, the Tories would go 'Deal vs No Deal' - but what about Labour? They've officially rubbished the deal, so they can hardly go 'Deal' vs Remain' - 'No Deal vs Remain' runs an obviously high risk of 'No Deal'.....viewcode said:
An overly-neglected point. A referendum can only be between the three remaining (ouch) options: Remain, Deal, No Deal. But Remain cannot be on the ballot paper because it's already been asked, and No Deal cannot be on the ballot paper because it's disastrous. Plus it's too late for a referendum anyway. Oh lord, it's a big steaming mess.williamglenn said:
Why would Tory MPs who are voting for the deal want a no deal option?HYUFD said:
Probably not and certainly not without a No Deal option tooedmundintokyo said:
The question isn't whether they back Remain, it's whether they'd accept a referendum with Remain as an option as the price of getting the deal through.HYUFD said:
Absolutely. 200 Tory MPs back the Deal, 100 back No Deal barely a handful back Remain.edmundintokyo said:
A question I've asked before is: Suppose TMay whipped Deal+Referendum. How Con many rebels would there be? I think previous opinions were around 110 - 130. Are you saying you think it would be more like 300???HYUFD said:
There will never be a Remain v Deal referendum as the vast majority of the Tory party would vote it down.
The only possible referendum while we have a Tory PM would be Leave v Remain then if Leave wins Deal v No Deal
I can see May calling a Leave with the Deal or No Deal referendum as a last resort and it scraping through with DUP and Labour Leaver support. I cannot see May ever calling a Remain v Deal referendum0 -
If you wait for a full moon with Capricorn in the ascendant then the astrological quota controlling a proposition's perceptual limit is temporarily inverted, and it's possible to present Remain as a referendum option a second time without summoning the basilisk.viewcode said:But Remain cannot be on the ballot paper because it's already been asked
Which gets everybody out of the treacle, but the questions are:
1) Would TMay do this? Answer: Who knows
2) Would enough MPs back it? I think so, but it's not a no-brainer, especially on the Tory side0 -
Neither major party wants to take responsibility for a referendum, but lots of MPs want a referendum with a Remain option, and TMay probably (nobody really knows, perhaps not even her) wants either her deal or Remain as an outcome. That's why the Deal-Subject-To-Referendum route may actually work as a way out of the treacle: Corbyn doesn't have to support it at all, and TMay can blame the referendum part on the opposition.CarlottaVance said:
Neither major party wants a referendum - if forced, the Tories would go 'Deal vs No Deal' - but what about Labour? They've officially rubbished the deal, so they can hardly go 'Deal' vs Remain' - 'No Deal vs Remain' runs an obviously high risk of 'No Deal'.....0 -
As I recall doing it, the voting intention questions were first.notme2 said:
They’ve managed to achieve a very pro remain set of results and headline figures for strong support for a second referendum. The client has managed to get the responses it wants by asking the questions in the way it wanted. There is a risk this has contaminated the voting intention question. A dozen questions on Brexit and then a VI...edmundintokyo said:
What do you mean by push poll?notme2 said:
“It’s just for fun”.... it was a peoplesvote push poll.justin124 said:
Who told us to be wary of polls conducted over Bank Holiday periods? This was carried out over an extended 2 week period - which in itself makes it difficult to compare with earlier polls.notme2 said:Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 34% (-5)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
Chgs. w/ 17 Dec0 -
We can dismiss the concerns of the entire movement then - because reportedly a few people may have said they are against gay marriage at a forum? Its not exactly a policy that is now going to be reversed but the fuel price policy has been at least for now.Gardenwalker said:
I expect for most staying warm in the winter and being able to afford to drive their cars to work and elsewhere probably ranks a bit higher as a day to day concern.0 -
Totally agree. A deal vs remain question would completely tear apart the Tories as many of their voters, activists and MPs would boycott it.HYUFD said:
Only because No Dealers would boycott it.williamglenn said:
No it isn't, Nick. The YouGov poll from earlier in December had Remain: 59%, Deal: 41% or 63/37 on those certain to vote.NickPalmer said:
Hmm. That's also way out of line with recent polls. Treat with caution...williamglenn said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5v5qj2t7c8/PVResults_181214_Brexit_w.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote
As I said there will never be a Remain v Deal referendum question under a Tory PM so it is pointless asking it unless we have a change of government.
The only referendum a majority of Tory MPs might support is Deal v No Deal and no Remain option at all or at most Remain v Leave and if Leave wins Leave with the Deal or No Deal
You wanted to vote on the deal, we voted to leave, choose my deal or leave with no deal. Its a perfectly logical position for the Tories to take - and intellectually consistent. And if the public pick no deal then she has cover for it.
Still don't see it happening though.0 -
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