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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Shutdown: Who blinks, who loses?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Shutdown: Who blinks, who loses?
Thirteen months to the first elections in the primary campaigns for next year’s US presidential vote might seem a long way off when so much can and will happen in the UK over the next thirteen weeks, never mind months. That, however, is because Brexit is exceptional.
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This is obviously a very high stakes bluff on the part of Mrs May. But she's not very good at it. It is widely known that you can't believe her and she caves. (Contrast her with the DUP). So she is going to cave but what to? Revoke or Ref2? GONU?
Because she is bluffing she won't have let many people in on her Plan B. But she will need advice on the merits of her Plan B and the logistics and minimum time needed.
I assume she is consulting Philip. Perhaps Lidington. Perhaps Rudd. Not the Leader of the House. Long shot - perhaps Grieve in strictest confidence?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
I can see this trend accelerating as the shut down continues. What are Senate Republicans going to do about it? There are already serious grumbles of discontent.
The 2011 shutdown did hurt the Republicans. Hopefully they will remember this before the idea of the USA as a serious country is damaged further.
Wouldn’t it be nice if an aspiring Democratic candidate for the presidency promises to scrap the debt ceiling? It’s an idiotic piece of legislation. If Republicans were really serious about the national debt (chance would be a fine thing) they could propose a copy of Germany’s schuldenbremse (debt brake).
Happy New Year David.
Of course, there are a lot more variables. Trump might not stand, he might be impeached or at least face impeachment proceedings, and as ever, his fate will rest with how many losers or winners there are from his management of the economy, particularly his trade wars.
Dear God, surely that's too low: it should be around evens. That has to be value.
Edit/ conventionally odds are 'long' and 'short', not high or low
Or does one’s contract say “unless 600 pricks in Washington can’t sort their shit”??!
Incidentally, you do know there's a non-trivial chance that there won't be any deals, yes? Parliament is paralysed and isn't at home to Mr Decisions right now. I won't detain you with my opinion of such dereliction [it involves swearing and threats: I am really annoyed], but they're not functioning at the moment.
Um, she is taking us there. People have been spending two years watching people driving towards a cliff and saying "nahh: they'll brake". For reasons previously described, I think they might not.
Mrs M is dutiful, concerned about her reputation and legacy, and holds the union and her party dear. She won't be the PM to takes us to no deal, and risks it all. My expectation is that the Revocation Bill is already drafted and could be passed in a day or so, in extremis.
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1081559139271278594?s=21
We should be grateful to Trump. But for him, we would've had twice the media coverage on the EU.
The shutdown, I can see lasting a long time. The Dems are emboldened and Trump likes a confrontation.
Fortunately, he is essentially a coward, so I don’t expect the shutdown to last more than another two or three weeks.
Even as a Tory headbanger ( © IanB2) I can see that.
Yes, to a degree. London’s 21,000 black cabs are among its dirtiest vehicles, diesels that pump out 16% of all transport nitrous oxide (NOx) in central London. Yet this powerful lobby group have been given an exemption, unlike London’s police cars, ambulances and fire engines, many of which will have to be replaced to meet the new standards.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/londons-ultra-low-emission-zone-what-you-need-to-know
They are furloughed - so they are not working.
Americans tend not to get paid holiday.
The USA is the sort of country that only pays for worked hours. Nice and simple.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1081188726997434368
HYUFD said
'Utter rubbish, every poll now has Brexit as the most important issue facing the UK.'
Yet again you fail to understand the difference between an issue being 'important' and it being 'salient'. The experience of the 2017 election adds weight to the comments of people such as Nick Palmer - which have far more credence than those made by someone long revealed to be a Tory party hack.
https://twitter.com/mikestuchbery_/status/1081545304908984320?s=21
So what if the Commons rejects EUref2? Its also [by then] rejected May's Deal. If May doesn't have to give up on her Deal just because it has been rejected then why should Remainers who want an EUref2 give up on that just because its been rejected?
If we add up the numbers there are more MPs nominally or outright in favour of EUref2 than there are in favour of May's Deal.
All Labour MPs are officially behind a policy of backing EUref2 as a last resort, if the Labour Leadership ever comes out in favour of that only a tiny fraction would rebel against that. The SNP and LDs want that too. PC and almost all others except for DUP back that too. Finally a small number of Tory MPs back that as well.
There are ~215 MPs in favour of May's Deal.
There are ~300 MPs in favour of EUref2.
There is zero reason once May's deal is rejected for die hard remainers to not remain supporting EUref2.
The US spent $2.5 trillion dollars alone on the Iraq war just so George W Bush could get revenge for a slight to his father.
Its all a lot of fiddling around the edges!
I see zero evidence that the USA is prepared for a future in which they are Number 2. They could learn a lot from us.
In a previous post[X] I discussed the possibility of a new referendum. The PPERA: the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000[1] lays down the minimum timescale between announcement and referendum, and it's about two-three months. The act also contains clauses that allow that period to be reduced, *but* those clauses have to be activated by a new referendum act that specifies the shorter period, and I doubt that such an act would be passed.
So I don't believe a 2nd referendum will be held.
[X] https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2150711/#Comment_2150711
The previous post is reproduced below:
-------------------------------------------
Don't congratulate me just yet: I'm speed-reading the PPERA: the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.[1] It goes like this:
1) A Bill has to be introduced[3]
2) The Commission shall consider the wording of the referendum and shall publish a statement of any views of the Commission as soon as reasonably practicable after the Bill is introduced[3]
3) You have to pass an Act. I don't know how fast it takes to get thru committee, HoC, HoL and Queen consent
4) Once passed, participants have 28 days to apply to the Electoral Commission to become a permitted participant.[4]
5) After that 28 days, the EC have 14 days to say yea or nay to the applicant.[4]
6) After that 14 days, the ref must then be at least 28 days after that.[2]
However, the PPERA is littered with things like "The Secretary of State may...by order provide for...the periods of 28 and 14 days...was instead such shorter or longer period as is specified in the order."[4]
So. The period specified in the PPERA is quite lengthy and measured, but the PPERA also contains getout clauses that can reduce the period quite dramatically. It's theoretically possible for the referendum period after the Act is passed to be just one day, but that's driving a coach-and-horses thru the whole thing and even this Parliament is not that crazy. At this point, my recommendation that Parliament be bypassed entirely via order-in-Council begins to look sensible in comparison.
FURTHER READING
[1] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/contents
[2] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/section/103
[3] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/section/104
[4] https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/section/109
PS IANAL.
Let’s compare black cabs and Uber:
1) Uber is dramatically cheaper
2) Uber cars are usually cleaner on the inside
3) Uber cars are more comfortable
4) Uber drivers are more attentive re temperature and radio station
5) The Knowledge is redundant in the age of sat navs
The sooner black cabs are a historical artefact the better. Perhaps we can keep 100 on the roads for sentimental reasons, like the Routemasters on routes 9 and 13.
No all Labour MPs are not behind a policy of backing EUref2 as a last resort, Hoey, Field and Skinner and Mann and other Labour Leavers certainly not, many Labour MPs in Leave seats like Flint and Snell will also oppose EUref2. The vast majority of Tory MPs will vote against EUref2 as will the DUP so the Deal could well get more votes than EUref2.
So there is every reason once EUref2 is rejected for Remainers or at least certainly Labour MPs in Leave seats to switch behind it as a last resort to avoid No Deal
Hoey, Skinner and Mann may rebel but then so too would Grieve, Woolaston and others on the Tory benches would too. That leaves approximately 300 MPs lined up officially behind EUref2, no reason for them to back a crap deal.
Giving in to him on this is simply unthinkable as the first action of a Democratic House of Representatives.
He is a socialist, and Warren isn't. I don't expect her to do anything of the sort.
There are also over 90 nations with higher homicide rates than the US - all of which have lower gun ownership levels per capita.
The main reason we care _and mostly ignore the higher homicide rates in the other 90 odd nations - is because American lives appear to matter to us and the media - and Yemeni or Honduran ones from example don't.
However if you are a middle earner or poor or out of work the US provides no holiday pay, no maternity or paternity leave, no unemployment benefits without having made enough insurance payments and then time limited and no state healthcare unless for the very poor or retired. If you are in those groups Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Western Europe provide more support and more of a safety net than the US
I am not sure there is a shred of strategic thinking in Trump's brain though tbh.
Corbyn has not officially committed to EUref2 regardless of circumstance, plenty of Labour MPs from Leave seats like Flint and Snell have also refused to back EUref2 or any Norway style deal which leaves free movement in place and they can be added to Hoey, Skinner and Mann so it is optimistic to suggest EUref2 would get up to 300 MPs or anywhere close to it especially once you add the vast majority of Tory MPs, both Deal backers and the ERG and the DUP voting against EUref2 too
I’m sure the Chinese are working on it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-2020.html
Arizona police investigate after 'vegetative patient gives birth'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46768242
Be warned, it is not a nice story at all.
What leads you to think Trump has a brain?
It was before DNA testing, of course so, in the face of denials no one, AFAIK, ever admitted paternity.
Had Bernie been nominee he would likely have done better in the rustbelt than Hillary and may well have won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan and the Electoral College and the Presidency.
Trump will beat another liberal elitist coastal Democrat like Hillary, if the Democrats want to beat Trump they need a candidate who can win back more Midwestern white rustbelt bluecollar voters otherwise Trump will be re elected
In more positive news, the Telegraph has employed William Sitwell (sacked by Waitrose because he outraged vegans with a joke) as restaurant critic, and my old buddy Peter Lilley has found 30 reasons to be cheerful about no deal.
It was an EDL march and had nothing to do with Greggs. But a clever photo op by someone. Still a bunch of f*ckwits but for a different reason.
As an aside I am intending actively hunting down a Greggs to try one of these Veggie rolls. Greggs products do seem to have that perfect taste combination of grease and salt that I crave.
https://www.newsweek.com/worlds-most-powerful-country-china-rising-1279926?amp=1
How delusional can one be? I don’t think even JRM would claim such a thing.
As a Sanders sympathiser (who regards Warren with suspicion - a progressive who's a proud capitalist and didn't support Sanders against Clinton?), I'm not convinced that the sex allegations about Sanders' staff will damage him. How can you be "shamefully ignorant" of something? Only if you have an obligation to know and a feasible way of finding out, e.g. an engine driver checking that the engine isn't overheating. If your employees are committing sexual misconduct and nobody tells you, how are you supposed to know?
There are other reasons to be doubtful about Sanders - age, electability - but if the question is who is the most left-wing it's no contest.
Brendan re Swiss guns - yes, most male adults have an Army rifle. But they don't normally have ammunition - it will be issued to them in a crisis. And they dcertainly don't have the semi-automatics seen in the US.
That said, although the murder rate in Switzerland is extraordinarily low, the proportion committed with guns is higher than most countries, so presumably if you're nutty enough you can get the ammo somehow.
"Girl, 13, arrested in London 'yellow-vest' pro-Brexit protest"
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/05/girl-13-arrested-in-london-yellow-vest-brexit-protest
Personally thinking about military, economic, diplomatic, and cultural clout, I’d say the U.K. still performs quite high. I’d have us 3rd overall, after the US and China.