politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting follo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting following claims of sexual harassment during last campaign
The question of whether Bernie Sanders will run in WH2020 has been put in doubt following claims by staffers of sexual harassment during his 2016 campaign. Politico is reporting:
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First.0
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2nd like the UK...
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/03/ireland-wants-hundreds-millions-eu-aid-mitigate-damage-no-deal/
I doubt we'll be bailing them out this time.0 -
Another instance for the long list where laying the favourite would prove profitable.0
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Good afternoon, my fellow gamers.
All your base are belong to us:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46746593
On-topic: age is a factor but next time the Democrat field will be rather more competitive too.0 -
Fpt:
No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.
It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.
No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.
Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.
If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.
If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.0 -
He was always one to lay, from last year, apart from their ages, I wasn't backing Biden for similar reasons.
https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/10/04/joe-bidens-metoo-problem0 -
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
the woke eat themselves.0
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A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.anothernick said:
A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
Mind you if a self confessed pussy grabber can become President why not Bernie?
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The Democrat establishment and voter-base is less tolerant of this. See the treatment of Al Franken last year.TheScreamingEagles said:Mind you if a self confessed pussy grabber can become President why not Bernie?
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There’s little evidence of any real achievement from Hunt, after nearly 9 continuous years in Cabinet. His chief merit appears to be that he is *not* Javid.TheScreamingEagles said:
A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.anothernick said:
A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
Mr. Walker, not being someone may well be enough to get through to the final two.0
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Not being Boris helps as well.Gardenwalker said:
There’s little evidence of any real achievement from Hunt, after nearly 9 continuous years in Cabinet. His chief merit appears to be that he is *not* Javid.TheScreamingEagles said:
A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.anothernick said:
A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
This is true.Quincel said:
The Democrat establishment and voter-base is less tolerant of this. See the treatment of Al Franken last year.TheScreamingEagles said:Mind you if a self confessed pussy grabber can become President why not Bernie?
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A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?Gardenwalker said:Fpt:
Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.
Give me strength..0 -
Not so much waiting as chapping at the door wanting to be let in.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
Replacing a grey managerial regime with no Tory principles with a slightly less grey clone is precisely what the country doesn't need.SandyRentool said:
Not so much waiting as chapping at the door wanting to be let in.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
The Sajid disagrees. The Sajid knows best. Watch out for The Sajid.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
The Sajid abides.0 -
Hurray! Another excuse to post....TGOHF said:
A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?Gardenwalker said:Fpt:
Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.
Give me strength..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwM9t8AFVVc
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I think these kind of developments point towards a Trump second term. Purity over power.0
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Not being much good will be sussed by the members though.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Walker, not being someone may well be enough to get through to the final two.
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Could someone in the republican party do a Macron?0
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Most senior politicians have core beliefs that shine through the rhetoric and coded language in which they are forced to communicate. Thatcher believed in the free market, taming the unions, a unitary UK; Blair believed in his third way, combining free markets with attacks on poverty and exclusion, strong belief in Europe, even Brown and Major (and Corbyn of course) had clear beliefs and principles which, like them or not, guide their political careers. But what does Hunt believe? What kind of society does he want to create? And how would he go about it? What principle would he go to the stake for? None save his own career I think.Gardenwalker said:
There’s little evidence of any real achievement from Hunt, after nearly 9 continuous years in Cabinet. His chief merit appears to be that he is *not* Javid.TheScreamingEagles said:
A successful businessman, magnificent Secretary of State for Health where he obtained record funding for the NHS, and has gravitas to be PM, as evidenced by his stint as Foreign Secretary.anothernick said:
A man with no principles or beliefs beyond arrogance and his own advancement. A worthy successor to the two men who created today's Tory Party, David Cameron and Boris Johnson.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
To her party, for sure, but I think she'd resign herself if parliament imposes a referendum (via whatever route), and took her 'red line' comments in December on the subject as preparing her case should she need one.Gardenwalker said:Fpt:
No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.
It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.
No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.
Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.
If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.
If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.0 -
Hunt is a slightly better Hammond who is a poor man's Lansley.
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We can deduce several things from THE SAJ MAN's recent behaviour.
1. He's a berk
2. He's impatient, wants to be leader now, and he's prepared to debase himself and his office to achieve it
3. His cabinet colleagues don't like him very much
4. (Presumably) Hunt is worried that Sajid's immigrant-baiting will resonate with the gammons in the party and so The Saj (PBUH) needs to be brought down a peg or two0 -
Quite right. We can always eat good English Cheddar, instead of that foreign muck!TGOHF said:
A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?Gardenwalker said:Fpt:
Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.
Give me strength..
(What's that you say? We import 40% of our Cheddar? Infamy, infamy! That England, that was wont to conquer others ...)0 -
If a car stops in the fast lane of the M1 for two hours, how long is the delay it causes?TGOHF said:
A civil emergency due to brie supplies being delayed at Calais for a few extra hours ?Gardenwalker said:Fpt:
Following a (brief) period of civil emergency,.
Give me strength..0 -
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb0 -
3. May not be a bad thing.grabcocque said:We can deduce several things from THE SAJ MAN's recent behaviour.
1. He's a berk
2. He's impatient, wants to be leader now, and he's prepared to debase himself and his office to achieve it
3. His cabinet colleagues don't like him very much
4. (Presumably) Hunt is worried that Sajid's immigrant-baiting will resonate with the gammons in the party and so The Saj (PBUH) needs to be brought down a peg or two
4. Saj paid attention to the voters for the last 4 years. Escaping from France is not a heroic activity.
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His almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.Gardenwalker said:0 -
Great! You have the bang opposite view to my brand new one.Gardenwalker said:Fpt:
No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.
It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.
No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.
Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.
If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.
If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.
I reckon that No Brexit is what does most structural damage to the Tory party, for sure costs Mrs May her job, and that No Deal is therefore what is most likely if she cannot get her one through (which I still think she will).
Getting a bit jittery about this Brexit stuff now. Starting to see it as real rather than just a terrific soap opera and betting bonanza.0 -
There's always a brief hope each time there's a new Tory leader that maybe this time they won't elect a nasty gammon-baiting amoral sociopath hell bent on sowing misery and division, but it's always dashed when you remember who gets to choose Tory leaders.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.0 -
Food producers to have spoiled unsold stock while Britain starves due to Brexit ?TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great?
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
If only there was a solution..0 -
@Richard_Nabavi If we're definitely not heading for a no deal Brexit, is now the time to lump into UK equities ?0
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A Mrs Thatcher clone being elected next year would add 10% to twitters traffic as pearls would be furiously clutched all over London as she would be deemed a "nasty gammon-baiting amoral sociopath hell bent on sowing misery and division"grabcocque said:
There's always a brief hope each time there's a new Tory leader that maybe this time they won't elect a nasty gammon-baiting amoral sociopath hell bent on sowing misery and division, but it's always dashed when you remember who gets to choose Tory leaders.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
She of course was the best PM since the war.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html0 -
What you meant to say was his BROWN almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.Dura_Ace said:
His almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.Gardenwalker said:
But the shape and colour of his head will be a lesser concern than his intent to see criminals* stopped from coming to our shores. His election chances are directly proportional to the decibel-level of the squealing he causes the liberal left.
*key midland marginals view of economic migrants0 -
No Brexit would indeed damage the Tory party immensely; a second referendum would do significant damage too.kinabalu said:
Great! You have the bang opposite view to my brand new one.Gardenwalker said:Fpt:
No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.
It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.
No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.
Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.
If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.
If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.
I reckon that No Brexit is what does most structural damage to the Tory party, for sure costs Mrs May her job, and that No Deal is therefore what is most likely if she cannot get her one through (which I still think she will).
Getting a bit jittery about this Brexit stuff now. Starting to see it as real rather than just a terrific soap opera and betting bonanza.0 -
Sky showing HMS Mersey deploying in the channel and saying that migrant crossings have stopped over the last few days as a result of increased activity by the French navy around Calais and the ramping up by SAJ of at sea patrols and the realisation in Calais that the action taken has effectively cut off the opportunity to enter the UK across the channel
Quite good reporting for Sajid Javid.0 -
There has not, to my knowledge, ever been a totally hairless Prime Minister. Not a male one, anyway.0
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Telegraph is even more graphicAlanbrooke said:TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/03/ireland-wants-hundreds-millions-eu-aid-mitigate-damage-no-deal/
"Dublin has told European Commission officials it will apply for the cash to mitigate the impact of no deal on its beef, dairy and fishing sectors, the Irish Independent reported on Thursday.
“You’re looking at hundreds of millions here. Between the beef industry and the fishing industry we’re talking mega-money,” said Michael Creed, the agriculture minister."
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I am not sure whether this research project has been linked here before
https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/2019/01/02/love-corbyn-hate-brexit/
This is a project looking at the views of party members of the big 6 parties. The most recent survey is on the Labour Party members.
There is also an article in the new statesman which looks at the ratings of possible successors to Jeremy Corbyn based on the same survey data.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/01/jeremy-corbyn-s-successor-may-be-more-establishment-you-expect0 -
The EU will back Leo.Alanbrooke said:TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
It'll be fine.0 -
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The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election. It brings the office into disrepute, and all seems a bit needy and unseemly. Nobody likes the stench of desperation, Saj.TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Also, as we've seen, he's painted a cross on his back now by declaring himself the front runner, so expect lots more "sources closes to cabinet minister" stories about what a prick he is in the next few days.0 -
As I have said before it depends how either of these events happen and the role of TM in facilitating them or not. Brexit has the potential to decimate both major parties or none.Mortimer said:
No Brexit would indeed damage the Tory party immensely; a second referendum would do significant damage too.kinabalu said:
Great! You have the bang opposite view to my brand new one.Gardenwalker said:Fpt:
No Deal destroys the Tory party for a generation. Following a (brief) period of civil emergency, we will be forced to sign up to a series of disadvantageous agreements with the EU just to keep the proverbial lights on.
It will be one of those oh shit moments like the collapse of Lehmans. I’d expect May to be ousted by her own Cabinet, perhaps after failed attempts to form a government of National Unity - May herself would not resign to avoid doing a Cameron.
No, May will not opt for a “No Deal”.
Although she is said to he totally against a referendum, seeing it as a betrayal of the vote, it does in fact offer a lifeline to her and her Party.
If her deal wins, May is safe, and Remainerdom will be vanquished. Having failed twice to persuade the public, I’d expect all but the most militant Remainers to shut up.
If Remain wins, I’d expect May to throw Eurosceptics a bone - perhaps even the promise of a third Referendum - but only after a Commission has examined various Options. Some of the fruitier Tories could jump to a moderately revitalised “Farage Party” - which will have used the referendum as a springboard to national relevance - but not enough to make a difference. Remain actually *benefits* the Tories as it helps them start the beginning of the detox they will need for post-Corbyn battles.
I reckon that No Brexit is what does most structural damage to the Tory party, for sure costs Mrs May her job, and that No Deal is therefore what is most likely if she cannot get her one through (which I still think she will).
Getting a bit jittery about this Brexit stuff now. Starting to see it as real rather than just a terrific soap opera and betting bonanza.
We only need to see how the next three weeks pan out to have a good idea of the end point0 -
It might be (either now or quite soon) if we were definitely not heading for a no-deal Brexit, but I don't think we can be that definite. It's an unusual situation where the prospect is a binary switch where either the UK domestically-focused stock markets and sterling crash, or alternatively both rise if a deal is done or a referendum looks possible. Overlaid on that is the general international uncertainty.Pulpstar said:@Richard_Nabavi If we're definitely not heading for a no deal Brexit, is now the time to lump into UK equities ?
I have tentatively bought a bit of FTSE100 (an index I usually ignore because it is so arbitrary and focused on a small number of stocks in particular sectors), on the basis that it's cheap compared with other markets, has been over-sold because investors are indiscriminately avoiding the UK market, but is actually not really a UK market but an international one protected to some extent by the exchange rate if no-deal happens. But I don't have a lot of confidence either way, and of course there's always the Corbyn/McDonnell risk. Maximum diversification seems called for including some cash.
This not investment advice, DYOR, you might lose your shirt etc etc.0 -
Where are they going to get the money from?TheScreamingEagles said:
The EU will back Leo.Alanbrooke said:TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
It'll be fine.
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Mexico will pay.RobD said:
Where are they going to get the money from?TheScreamingEagles said:
The EU will back Leo.Alanbrooke said:TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
It'll be fine.0 -
I DO NOT COME HERE EXPECTING TO SEE PIE.FrancisUrquhart said:The trouble with WOKE comedy
0 -
It won't be only Ireland seeking millions or even billions on a no deal brexit, it will be many EU Countries suffering hugelyTGOHF said:
Telegraph is even more graphicAlanbrooke said:TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/03/ireland-wants-hundreds-millions-eu-aid-mitigate-damage-no-deal/
"Dublin has told European Commission officials it will apply for the cash to mitigate the impact of no deal on its beef, dairy and fishing sectors, the Irish Independent reported on Thursday.
“You’re looking at hundreds of millions here. Between the beef industry and the fishing industry we’re talking mega-money,” said Michael Creed, the agriculture minister."0 -
From the EU, as pointed out the £39 billion isn't up front, and let us play a game, how much as a percentage of the EU GDP £39 billion is.RobD said:
Where are they going to get the money from?TheScreamingEagles said:
The EU will back Leo.Alanbrooke said:TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
It'll be fine.0 -
You aren't forced to click on it. It is actually one of his better ones.grabcocque said:
I DO NOT COME HERE EXPECTING TO SEE PIE.FrancisUrquhart said:The trouble with WOKE comedy
0 -
Ones like this one in the Sun from this morning https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8106523/sajid-javid-power-gone-to-his-head/ ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election. It brings the office into disrepute, and all seems a bit needy and unseemly. Nobody likes the stench of desperation, Saj.TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Also, as we've seen, he's painted a cross on his back now by declaring himself the front runner, so expect lots more "sources closes to cabinet minister" stories about what a prick he is in the next few days.0 -
as long as hes paying off his german banks hes fine, one slip and hes taramasalataTheScreamingEagles said:
The EU will back Leo.Alanbrooke said:TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
It'll be fine.0 -
Fuck me that photo.eek said:
Ones like this one in the Sun from this morning https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8106523/sajid-javid-power-gone-to-his-head/ ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election. It brings the office into disrepute, and all seems a bit needy and unseemly. Nobody likes the stench of desperation, Saj.TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Also, as we've seen, he's painted a cross on his back now by declaring himself the front runner, so expect lots more "sources closes to cabinet minister" stories about what a prick he is in the next few days.
Somebody in his team needs to get him to start wearing hats or fascinators or sweatbands or tiaras or hijabs or SOMETHING to break up his eldritch facial symmetries.0 -
What has GDP got to do with it? The EU’s budget is tiny in comparison.TheScreamingEagles said:
From the EU, as pointed out the £39 billion isn't up front, and let us play a game, how much as a percentage of the EU GDP £39 billion is.RobD said:
Where are they going to get the money from?TheScreamingEagles said:
The EU will back Leo.Alanbrooke said:TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
It'll be fine.0 -
But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Forshame him.0 -
Both Trump and Brexit related.
This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.
It also shows how important Apple are.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding0 -
Every Tory leader is accused of such things, going back to the year dot. It comes with the territory.grabcocque said:
There's always a brief hope each time there's a new Tory leader that maybe this time they won't elect a nasty gammon-baiting amoral sociopath hell bent on sowing misery and division, but it's always dashed when you remember who gets to choose Tory leaders.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:0 -
https://realfood.tesco.com/recipes/lemon-meringue-pie.htmlgrabcocque said:
I DO NOT COME HERE EXPECTING TO SEE PIE.FrancisUrquhart said:The trouble with WOKE comedy
Serves 8 my arse......0 -
Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.TGOHF said:
But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Forshame him.0 -
It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...kinabalu said:
To me they are one and the same.Mortimer said:No Brexit would indeed damage the Tory party immensely; a second referendum would do significant damage too.
EUref2 leads to Remain. Cannot see any other outcome.
That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave you No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losting the second question....0 -
or the shares have been oversoldTheScreamingEagles said:Both Trump and Brexit related.
This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.
It also shows how important Apple are.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding
at some point maximum growth is reached0 -
FPT:
I don't think that's necessarily true.Richard_Nabavi said:
I agree with the thrust of what you're saying, except for one important point: once we've left the EU, then I doubt that it would be possible under EU law to simply resurrect the withdrawal deal. That's because the withdrawal deal has been negotiated under Article 50, but once we've left we'd simply be a third-party country and would have to start again in any negotiations, probably with a requirement for full ratification by all member states.kinabalu said:
But also a massive tory party problem if she reneges on Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:The party would undoubtedly split in that scenario.
If we leave with No Deal, and it's crash & chaos, as you predict, the Deal could be resurrected and implemented. So No Deal could be a staging post, albeit messy, to the Deal that she wants. She could perhaps carry on as PM in those circumstances.
And if, big surprise, it does not lead to crash & chaos, she's probably fine in that event too. She could perhaps carry on as PM.
But No Brexit kills her. She's gone.
That logic (if such it is) is why I am running a little more scared of No Deal, now, although I still expect the Deal to pass in time.
There's nothing in the text of Article 50 that intrinsically links subsection (2), which defines the process for agreeing the withdrawal arrangements and future relationship, with subsection (3), which is when the effect of the Treaties lapse.
In other words, although the EU Treaties might no longer apply to the UK after 29 March 2019, that doesn't of itself nullify the process for agreeing the future relationship. While there's clearly a bit of a logical disconnect in agreeing a Withdrawal Agreement after withdrawal, I don't think it's necessarily decisive given that the Arrangement was always designed to be used after withdrawal.
Of course, as with all agreements, both/all sides need to agree and it's always possible that the EU27 or the EP might not sign it off (or might demand amendments) if the UK has already left.0 -
-
Double whammy for Ireland.TheScreamingEagles said:Both Trump and Brexit related.
This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.
It also shows how important Apple are.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding
Shame.0 -
It isn't true. The EU can only conclude a withdrawal agreement, legally, as part of the Article 50 process. If the WA hasn't been concluded on the 29th March, and A50 isn't extended, the EU will have no further power to conclude the WA.david_herdson said:FPT:
I don't think that's necessarily true.0 -
"dignity" ?grabcocque said:
Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.TGOHF said:
But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Forshame him.
You mean sticking to the twitterati agreed PC line ?
0 -
Of course, going by previous efforts, the EU is unlikely to get any money to actual farmers until long after they are bankrupt, but hey, them's the breaks.TheScreamingEagles said:
The EU will back Leo.Alanbrooke said:TheScreamingEagles said:Karma’s great.
Farmers will face a grim barrage of export tariffs, increased haulage costs, paperwork and looming labour shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Michael Gove warned today.
He painted a nightmare scenario for Britain’s food producers as he urged fellow MPs to back the prime minister’s Brexit deal.
“It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit the effective tariffs of meat and sheep meat would be above 40 per cent. In some cases well above that,” Mr Gove told the Oxford Farming Conference.
The National Farmers Union said that tariffs on beef exports could be up to 65 per cent and tariffs on lamb could be 46 per cent.
Mr Gove, the cabinet’s leading Brexiteer, rejected suggestions that his warnings were a repeat of “Project Fear” — the term his fellow Brexiteers used to dismiss Remain campaigners’ warnings about what Brexit would entail.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-will-be-nightmare-for-farmers-warns-gove-8cq77k5bb
Karma 2
Leo needs a bung
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/emergency-eu-aid-to-be-sought-for-brexit-fallout-37676966.html
It'll be fine.0 -
I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?RobD said:0 -
Well, except for the City, natch.grabcocque said:
I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?RobD said:0 -
It's simple and effective. Classic Trump campaigning. Whether it's a strong enough message to last two years is another matter. He's taking her seriously though.williamglenn said:0 -
Not that I know of.grabcocque said:
I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?RobD said:0 -
I think HMG is in favour of an independent corporation tax policy, for example.grabcocque said:
I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?RobD said:0 -
How is he stopping them? Once you put ships in the channel you're encouraging them as, after you fish them out of the oggin, you can't do anything with them other than bring them to the UK.MarqueeMark said:
What you meant to say was his BROWN almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.Dura_Ace said:
His almost completely spherical head (almost Pilkington-esque) will play poorly in key midlands marginals.Gardenwalker said:
But the shape and colour of his head will be a lesser concern than his intent to see criminals* stopped from coming to our shores. His election chances are directly proportional to the decibel-level of the squealing he causes the liberal left.
*key midland marginals view of economic migrants0 -
We’re in favour of ending other country’s tax havens.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, except for the City, natch.grabcocque said:
I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?RobD said:0 -
No, I mean just not acting like an utter berk. I think it's how desperate Sajid wants to be noticed. Desperation is never a good look, and his colleagues have definitely noticed.TGOHF said:
"dignity" ?grabcocque said:
Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.TGOHF said:
But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Forshame him.
You mean sticking to the twitterati agreed PC line ?
Sajid may have peaked too early. This leadership election is a marathon not a sprint, and he just shot his wad trying to be the BIG MAN being nasty to six women in a dinghy.0 -
Apple products are worth it at triple the price.Alanbrooke said:
or the shares have been oversoldTheScreamingEagles said:Both Trump and Brexit related.
This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.
It also shows how important Apple are.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding
at some point maximum growth is reached0 -
$3000 for a phone?TheScreamingEagles said:
Apple products are worth it at triple the price.Alanbrooke said:
or the shares have been oversoldTheScreamingEagles said:Both Trump and Brexit related.
This is what my Brexit supporting friends worry about, Brexit is going to happen whilst the economy stalls.
It also shows how important Apple are.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/03/apple-shock-profit-warning-sends-european-shares-sliding
at some point maximum growth is reached 0 -
Well OBVIOUSLY.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, except for the City, natch.grabcocque said:
I thought the UK was broadly in favour of trying to end tax havens and offshore tax avoidance?RobD said:
0 -
Aren’t the vast majority of them young men? The most needy are left behind.grabcocque said:
No, I mean just not acting like an utter berk. I think it's how desperate Sajid wants to be noticed. Desperation is never a good look, and his colleagues have definitely noticed.TGOHF said:
"dignity" ?grabcocque said:
Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.TGOHF said:
But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Forshame him.
You mean sticking to the twitterati agreed PC line ?
Sajid may have peaked too early. This leadership election is a marathon not a sprint, and he just shot his wad trying to be the BIG MAN being nasty to six women in a dinghy.
0 -
On EUref1 Day, Remain traded at about 94%. That was as the country actually *voted* to leave. If you can't see any other outcome, you need to look harder.kinabalu said:
To me they are one and the same.Mortimer said:No Brexit would indeed damage the Tory party immensely; a second referendum would do significant damage too.
EUref2 leads to Remain. Cannot see any other outcome.
Depending on how the referendum is structured, it's entirely plausible to produce wins for Deal and No Deal as well.0 -
One man's berk is another man's President Trump.grabcocque said:
No, I mean just not acting like an utter berk. I think it's how desperate Sajid wants to be noticed. Desperation is never a good look, and his colleagues have definitely noticed.TGOHF said:
"dignity" ?grabcocque said:
Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.TGOHF said:
But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Forshame him.
You mean sticking to the twitterati agreed PC line ?
Sajid may have peaked too early. This leadership election is a marathon not a sprint, and he just shot his wad trying to be the BIG MAN being nasty to six women in a dinghy.0 -
I mean, sure, if Trump is your role model, you do you, I guess.TGOHF said:
One man's berk is another man's President Trump.
0 -
Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.
If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.
BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.0 -
Not sure I quite understand that? Could you clarify?eek said:It depends on how they mitigate the anger of austerity Britain. Unless they are very careful I expect the result would be We told you Leave and we meant it...
That's why David Herdson's questions from this morning look good. by asking do you want to leave with No Deal first you mitigate the risk of Leave wining a Leave/ Remain question and No Deal losing the second question....
IMO the only referendum that in practice will be approved is the binary, Remain vs The Deal.
Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley.0 -
Like the dignity Home Secretary Theresa May showed to the Windrush generation?grabcocque said:
Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.TGOHF said:
But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Forshame him.
Didn't stop her getting - and keeping - the top job.0 -
Remind me when that debacle started?MarqueeMark said:
Like the dignity Home Secretary Theresa May showed to the Windrush generation?grabcocque said:
Well yes, actually. As one of the great offices of state, I'd expect the Home Secretary to behave with a little more dignity than this past week. The Home Office is not simply a plaything for winning Tory leadership contests.TGOHF said:
But why ? Is it because he is suggesting something ......... .*sssshhhh !* ...... popular with voters ?grabcocque said:
The problem is, he hasn't made even the slightest attempt to hide the fact that his current round of gammon-bothering serves no purpose except to help him win the leadership election..TheScreamingEagles said:
He really isn’t.Casino_Royale said:
If Javid is getting criticised by the likes of Armando Iannucci, then he’s saying and doing all the right things to get elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is why Jeremy Hunt looks like a Prime Minister in waiting.Gardenwalker said:
Before Christmas Javid managed to make Lord Adonis sound reasonable.
I say that as someone who is on Javid as next Con leader at 60/1.
Forshame him.
Didn't stop her getting - and keeping - the top job.0 -
Gove's really worried about No Deal.DavidL said:Hysteria about a no deal Brexit seems to have stepped up another notch today from what was already quite a fantastical level. My guess is that we would barely even notice although this mania does risk some self fulfilling aspects.
If this makes some of our MPs back May's deal, however reluctantly, this would be a good thing but there is little evidence of that to date. It will be very interesting to see what the mood is when the MPs get back to the bear pit.
BTW can some of those members of the electorate who thought they understood Labour's position on Brexit well enough to have a view on it please drop Corbyn a wee explanatory note. Keep it short and avoid long words as much as possible, natch.0
