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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the betting chances of one happening drop to 32%
The big Brexit political betting movement has been a sharp fall in the betting chances of a second referendum taking place during 2019. The Betfair exchange odds plunged from nearly 40% to just 26% at about 10pm last night. Since then there’s been something of a recovery but at 32.5% as I write is still considerably lower than what it was.
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"Second EU referendum 'an option for the future' says Jeremy Corbyn as he admits not reading Brexit deal in full"
https://tinyurl.com/y7sfva5y
Of course tomorrow never comes.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1080624782008291333?s=20
Most will say he can't be beaten but who knows - Owen Smith got 40% in 2016 and he was a very weak candidate.
Many Lab members care a lot about Brexit. So if a much stronger candidate challenged Corbyn promising a 2nd referendum then who knows - they might well cause an upset.
It is of course absurd, and hugely damaging to Labour and the country. But that's where we are. Labour are now a political Ponzi scheme run for the service of a small group of men who control it, with the acquiescence of those being defrauded.
I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.
I admit, I thought he'd have switched position before now and have clearly been wrong, but when so many in his party want to remain (Sorry, 'have a referendum') he cannot be seen to facilitate brexit forever. But it does increasingly look like he is determined to drag things out until at least the MV, waiting for the gov to react to that defeat before he contemplates changing position.
https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1076952646500712448?s=21
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46735703
But they’re deadly serious. Deadly.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1077171988593020928
Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?
May's Deal is rubbish but with her in charge, I doubt we will be asked. She will just run the clock down and keep ramming her deal down MPs throats untl they panic and back it
Dream on.....
So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.
Whether that is a tenable policy until March is another matter.
1. Offer May a deal on Labour terms (permanent customs union is the simple one, but if she engaged there would be haggling over other things). The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal. However, she's not interested and the clock is ticking. So...
2. Vote down the May deal. It's the only one on the table, and needs to be considered. It offers a low-grade second-class associate membership. There are probably enough votes to reject it clearly.
3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.
4. Seek a General Election through a VONC, to offer people a choice of delayed A50 and new negotiations without May's red lines. This is, frankly, likely to fail to get a majority.
5. Seek a second referendum, as other alternatives have been exhausted.
The Guardian and People's Vote campaigners (who bear an uncanny resemblance to a subset of the anti-Corbyn people) want to lift step 5 to step 1. But that means "join the Remain conspiracy" - it fails to show that we've made reasonable efforts to respect the referendum. Reach step 5 and there's a defensible case that we've offered alternative implementations of Leave and merely rejected the one that nearly everyone agrees is unacceptable.
One can disagree, but it's just silly to argue that Corbyn is defying the party by this. It's what we've agreed to do, and he's sticking to it.
https://twitter.com/XHscitech/status/1080693756477632513
Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.
Said shortages are alleged to be due to EU workers 'going home' or not coming.
Hmm.
Higher wages should give a much needed impetus to improve productivity. If Grayling had half a brain that’s what he would have criticised the rail unions for yesterday - resisting technology and productivity improvements, rather than criticising pay rises for their members which seems perfectly. normal given rising costs of living.
If the Tories had any brains they would roll out a domestic policy agenda to try and attract Labour support, That would too much to expect for May’s merry band of muppets.
The course on Brexit has been set by the EU. The choices are no deal or May’s deal. May’s deal has nothing going for it. Just a shame she and Hammond have been so negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. May should have gone for a trade deal right from the start and made everything else conditional upon it. Too late now.
The wider public recognise reality at last, it seems.
As of yesterday, the odds on there being no second referendum had shortened from 1.75 before the (then uncancelled) 11 December vote to just 1.57.
On house building, tuition fees, the NHS, business rates cuts, an Amazon tax etc there has been a proactive government domestic agenda since the general election
If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories
Every time someone believes they have been undercut by an immigrant worker, or they feel their child gets no attention because 25pct of the primary class don't speak English.. well you know how that ends.
Thus, although May's ideas have been worked up a little in the FFA, the EU are ready for someone wanting to do a Canada deal or permanent CU / Turkey or Norway or whatever. That suggests to me that if Corbyn demands permanent CU, May tries to hear it off by the same tactics as she uses with the ERG: clarification.
As with the ERG, I am sceptical that this will cut the mustard.
Looks like that food and coffee will need to come from somewhere else.
I don't suppose Blair ever intended to use the last of his political capital waging war in the Middle East, but he did. Similarly it would be a trifle strange if Corbyn finds that he spends his unexpectedly large stash mostly on ensuring Brexit happens.
Everything we have seen of May, and every constitutional avenue, suggests that we’re leaving on March 29th. To deny that takes a special kind of denial.
Have a good morning.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-oil-imports-economy-industry-heavy-refining-efficiency-a8307161.html
But then Bastani always did make the Bursar of Unseen University look reasonably in touch with reality.
So, if you are a Rejoiner/Remainer you can't vote Labour.
Any markets on Highest LibDem poll rating in the next three months?
More seriously, of course it should. But I won’t hold my breath with Uncle Vince.
In related news, Musk and SpaceX are making a rocket that looks curiously like a stainless steel grain silo....
It's awesome.
https://spacenews.com/musk-teases-new-details-about-redesigned-next-generation-launch-system/
Labour on the other hand may well see leakage of Remainers to the LDs in an effort to stop Brexit
1) They have no power, 1% of Corbyn is worth more than 100% of the whole LibDems
2) LibDems are not exactly trustworthy to a left leaning voter. They put the Tories into power and share responsibility for the chaos.
https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/election-2017-south-suffolk-ukip-hopeful-aims-for-interstellar-travel-1-5026406
The business Remain wing is still largely Tory over Corbyn
It will be felt in the tax base which will contact overall and in any services that require low paid labour. We can expect the NHS to have less money and fewer services.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-of-an-era-uks-role-in-european-rosetta-mission-now-complete
However we are a major player in satellites. Our space market was work £13.7 billion in 2014/5, about 7% of the global market. That's a major success story considering we don't have launch services.
But tbf launchers are sexy, but not where the money is. This is why SpaceX is starting a constellation of satellites: that's where the money is. And we're very well placed in that market - and more so as the market moves towards the smaller satellites that we excel in.
As another example, an Israeli company is planning to land a probe on the Moon in the nextt few months, launched (I think) from a Falcon 9. The rockets are just the trucks. What matters is the cargo, and we could easily do this if there was political will.
But we probably shouldn't.
If the HOC, through amendments to the meaningful vote, endorse a second referendum or even to revoke A50 it will be interesting to see how TM reacts and until matters become more certain, everything is just speculation