politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On his first day as a member of the US Senate WH2012 GOP nomin
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Asking Paddy Power why they haven't settled up a May to remain in post bet they stuck up as '2019 or later'. Unless they think she is going to err live forever.0
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Kamala Harris seems seriously overrated. She's not particularly experienced, her polling is meh, she may not be running, she has the dullest twitter feed in the history of twitter feeds, and imagine what Warren is going to do with this:Quincel said:The other thing which jumps out at me is that Harris is polling surprisingly low in many polls, basically the same as Warren (who perhaps deserves more credit than she's getting, though I'm not convinced since name recognition surely makes Harris' high single figures more impressive).
In the memo, the leaders of the state attorney general’s Consumer Law Section said they had “uncovered evidence suggestive of widespread misconduct” in a yearlong investigation. In a detailed 22-page request, they identified over a thousand legal violations in the small subsection of OneWest loans they were able to examine, and they recommended that Attorney General Kamala Harris file a civil enforcement action against the Pasadena-based bank. They even wrote up a sample legal complaint, seeking injunctive relief and millions of dollars in penalties.
But Harris’s office, without any explanation, declined to prosecute the case.
https://theintercept.com/2017/01/03/treasury-nominee-steve-mnuchins-bank-accused-of-widespread-misconduct-in-leaked-memo/0 -
So neither of the related prickishnesses that Javid is displaying? Glad we've settled that.Charles said:
She would be a compelling candidate (to the extent that desiring the job doesn’t automatically make you unqualified)Theuniondivvie said:
Is Cyclefree a candidate for leadership of the Tory party? Did she say that the UK should be able to reject asylum applications out of hand without any due process, regardless of the circumstances of the case?Charles said:
Would you also say that about @CyclefreeTheuniondivvie said:
She made the same point yesterday (and I agree with her)
We have a moral duty to assist asylum seekers. We may be interested in economic migrants. We are not interested in law breakers.
Are any of those views unethical?
It does not help to conflate the categories
She said that all asylum seekers who arrived from France should be rejected. Presumably after a process.0 -
Pulps. Do you know where PP have hidden the rules associated with individual bets since their web redesign?Pulpstar said:Asking Paddy Power why they haven't settled up a May to remain in post bet they stuck up as '2019 or later'. Unless they think she is going to err live forever.
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Well done, you worked 'cun 'ard at that one.viewcode said:
I think you're Lusing it, Tania.ydoethur said:
My goodness, you are sinking to some titanic clangers this afternoon.Charles said:
I’d make you a marchioness if you’d change your voteydoethur said:
That one merits astern rebuke.Charles said:
Nah. It’s the herald of free enterpriseMarqueeMark said:
But this ferry pun could be terminal.ydoethur said:
You're ramping things up...MarqueeMark said:
The puns just roll on, roll off.....ydoethur said:
He's certainly handed his credibility over on a plate. It's been riveting though.Foxy said:
Holed below the waterline...ydoethur said:
He's certainly been all at sea this morning.Anorak said:Thread for Grabcoque, in the hope of arresting his maritime derangement: https://twitter.com/ShipBrief/status/1080406268215476224
GoldWhite Star!0 -
PS Steve Mnuchin, whose bank Harris declined to prosecute, is featured prominently in Warren's announcement video.0
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https://myaccount.paddypower.com/summary/accountsummary try there.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Pulps. Do you know where PP have hidden the rules associated with individual bets since their web redesign?Pulpstar said:Asking Paddy Power why they haven't settled up a May to remain in post bet they stuck up as '2019 or later'. Unless they think she is going to err live forever.
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I did a thread on this a while ago:Nigelb said:
That is beginning to be untrue. For example:ydoethur said:
The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.Anorak said:
"Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.david_herdson said:
Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):Anorak said:Off the chart mental (Lilico, that is!)
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1080446162962911232
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/0 -
I will try it at home, thanks. I assume that must be *after* you've bet...Pulpstar said:
https://myaccount.paddypower.com/summary/accountsummary try there.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Pulps. Do you know where PP have hidden the rules associated with individual bets since their web redesign?Pulpstar said:Asking Paddy Power why they haven't settled up a May to remain in post bet they stuck up as '2019 or later'. Unless they think she is going to err live forever.
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Good afternoon, comrades.
About a month and a half until the first car reveals of the season, ahead of testing. Still awaiting a confirmed calendar.0 -
The Economist's democracy index gives Singapore a score of 63% which makes it a "flawed democracy".FF43 said:Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952
Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?
It's a nominally a functional multiparty democracy, but pluralism is seriously impaired because the PAP uses defamation lawsuits to bankrupt political opponents and disqualify them from running for office.
The PAP has 83/89 seats in the Singaporean parliament, a somewhat higher ratio than United Russia has in the Diet or the Communist Party of China has in the National People's Congress.0 -
Doesn't surprise that you got there before me, David.david_herdson said:
I did a thread on this a while ago:Nigelb said:
That is beginning to be untrue. For example:ydoethur said:
The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.Anorak said:
"Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.david_herdson said:
Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):Anorak said:Off the chart mental (Lilico, that is!)
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1080446162962911232
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
Still, I don't expect China to greatly expand their global military presence until they've settled the issue of Taiwan...0 -
No Deal Brexit calendar:Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, comrades.
About a month and a half until the first car reveals of the season, ahead of testing. Still awaiting a confirmed calendar.
Round 1: Castle Combe
Round 2: Thruxton
Round 3: Rockingham
Round 4: Oulton Park
Round 5: Snetterton
Round 6: Donnington Park
Round 7: Silverstone
Round 8: Knockhill
Round 9: Cadwell Park
Round 10: Brands Hatch0 -
An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/10804487255987773460 -
I was imagining something closer to Death Race 2000.tlg86 said:
No Deal Brexit calendar:Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, comrades.
About a month and a half until the first car reveals of the season, ahead of testing. Still awaiting a confirmed calendar.
Round 1: Castle Combe
Round 2: Thruxton
Round 3: Rockingham
Round 4: Oulton Park
Round 5: Snetterton
Round 6: Donnington Park
Round 7: Silverstone
Round 8: Knockhill
Round 9: Cadwell Park
Round 10: Brands Hatch
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A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.Nigel_Foremain said:How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant
It is however problematical. For 2 reasons, one of principle and the other of practicality.
The principle being violated is the one which asserts that people are of equal intrinsic worth. If a person is penniless and famished, are they not allowed to state (as many who are more fortunate would have no hesitation in doing) that they don't like sprouts?
And in practice, such a strict formulation would mean that countries who happen to border, or be close to, trouble spots would be spoilt for refugees, leaving countries such as ours small-changed and out in the cold.0 -
What is "the left" on Europe? Corbyn voted leave (probably). He certainly campaigned for Brexit before it was cool.eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/10804487255987773460 -
And let us not forget extra-global reach...david_herdson said:
I did a thread on this a while ago:Nigelb said:
That is beginning to be untrue. For example:ydoethur said:
The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.Anorak said:
"Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.david_herdson said:
Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):Anorak said:Off the chart mental (Lilico, that is!)
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1080446162962911232
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jan/02/chinese-spacecraft-to-become-first-to-land-on-far-side-of-moon-chang-e-40 -
Not at all surprisingeek said:
But isn't that in light of a desire to avoid people risking life travelling across the channel in an overloaded dingy...Charles said:
She would be a compelling candidate (to the extent that desiring the job doesn’t automatically make you unqualified)Theuniondivvie said:
Is Cyclefree a candidate for leadership of the Tory party? Did she say that the UK should be able to reject asylum applications out of hand without any due process, regardless of the circumstances of the case?Charles said:
Would you also say that about @CyclefreeTheuniondivvie said:
She made the same point yesterday (and I agree with her)
We have a moral duty to assist asylum seekers. We may be interested in economic migrants. We are not interested in law breakers.
Are any of those views unethical?
It does not help to conflate the categories
She said that all asylum seekers who arrived from France should be rejected. Presumably after a process.
as I was going to post in answer to edmundintokyo - the issue is that the people crossing the channel are no longer just a refugee and the idea that they should continue to risk their life seems rather surprising...
The perceived upside is very high, people always underestimate personal risk (it’ll never happen to me)
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Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.kinabalu said:
A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.Nigel_Foremain said:How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant
So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
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What do they think we are in breach of?grabcocque said:
Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.kinabalu said:
A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.Nigel_Foremain said:How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant
So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.0 -
Lee Kuan Yew and his son Lee Hsein Loong have held the position of PM for 45 out of the last 60 years.grabcocque said:
The Economist's democracy index gives Singapore a score of 63% which makes it a "flawed democracy".FF43 said:Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952
Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?
It's a nominally a functional multiparty democracy, but pluralism is seriously impaired because the PAP uses defamation lawsuits to bankrupt political opponents and disqualify them from running for office.
The PAP has 83/89 seats in the Singaporean parliament, a somewhat higher ratio than United Russia has in the Diet or the Communist Party of China has in the National People's Congress.0 -
Invisible is right, when it comes to anything positive from Brexit.FF43 said:Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952
Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?
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Tony Benn did, too. Part at least of the Left has always been suspicious of the EU as a 'capitalist plot'. The moderate Left saw it more as internationalism in practice.TheWhiteRabbit said:
What is "the left" on Europe? Corbyn voted leave (probably). He certainly campaigned for Brexit before it was cool.eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/10804487255987773460 -
The sad thing is there'd be more excitement in a formula 8 race at one of those courses than in a season of F1 ...tlg86 said:
No Deal Brexit calendar:Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, comrades.
About a month and a half until the first car reveals of the season, ahead of testing. Still awaiting a confirmed calendar.
Round 1: Castle Combe
Round 2: Thruxton
Round 3: Rockingham
Round 4: Oulton Park
Round 5: Snetterton
Round 6: Donnington Park
Round 7: Silverstone
Round 8: Knockhill
Round 9: Cadwell Park
Round 10: Brands Hatch
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Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.0 -
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.0 -
Taiwan will, I suspect, remain a running sore through US-Chinese diplomatic relations for decades. However, as there's not really much that China can do while the US stands firmly with Taiwan, I don't think that Beijing can allow it to act as a roadblock to wider ambitions (or military/diplomatic necessities, depending on how you see it), particularly in and around the Indian Ocean.Nigelb said:
Doesn't surprise that you got there before me, David.david_herdson said:
I did a thread on this a while ago:Nigelb said:
That is beginning to be untrue. For example:ydoethur said:
The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.Anorak said:
"Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.david_herdson said:
Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):Anorak said:Off the chart mental (Lilico, that is!)
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1080446162962911232
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
Still, I don't expect China to greatly expand their global military presence until they've settled the issue of Taiwan...0 -
That was then, as the EU moved towards protecting things like workers rights and the environment the left started to embrace it, not particularly passionately though. Even Corbyn found himself voting for it (in Parliament) before campaigning for it in the referendum.OldKingCole said:
Tony Benn did, too. Part at least of the Left has always been suspicious of the EU as a 'capitalist plot'. The moderate Left saw it more as internationalism in practice.TheWhiteRabbit said:
What is "the left" on Europe? Corbyn voted leave (probably). He certainly campaigned for Brexit before it was cool.eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/10804487255987773460 -
Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.0 -
It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346
"Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."
Any suggestions?0 -
I... what... eh....?
https://twitter.com/_HelenDale/status/10802180304356925460 -
To put that into perspective, it is likely that a small Israeli company will land a lander on the Moon this year. What the Chinese is doing is awesome, but not compared to (say) what the Japanese have done with Hyabusa2.Nigelb said:
And let us not forget extra-global reach...david_herdson said:
I did a thread on this a while ago:Nigelb said:
That is beginning to be untrue. For example:ydoethur said:
The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.Anorak said:
"Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.david_herdson said:
Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):Anorak said:Off the chart mental (Lilico, that is!)
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1080446162962911232
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jan/02/chinese-spacecraft-to-become-first-to-land-on-far-side-of-moon-chang-e-4
More interestingly, it is rumoured that the Chinese will repair Russia's only aircraft carrier in return for turbine technology.
This is after the Russians made a valiant attempt to sink the Kuznetsov along with its floating dry dock. They succeeded with the dock, but not carrier ...0 -
Perfectly true, but those things didn't percolate down as they should have done. The dreadful is that the Left, and 'Les Miserables' will, but voting to Leave, have handed themselves over to those who really want Victorian conditions to return, in terms of employment rights, education services and so on.TheJezziah said:
That was then, as the EU moved towards protecting things like workers rights and the environment the left started to embrace it, not particularly passionately though. Even Corbyn found himself voting for it (in Parliament) before campaigning for it in the referendum.OldKingCole said:
Tony Benn did, too. Part at least of the Left has always been suspicious of the EU as a 'capitalist plot'. The moderate Left saw it more as internationalism in practice.TheWhiteRabbit said:
What is "the left" on Europe? Corbyn voted leave (probably). He certainly campaigned for Brexit before it was cool.eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346
As anyone who contemplates a NW European Singapore will realise.0 -
So in simple terms, France is refusing asylum to people because it wants to change the rules so that it doesn't have to?grabcocque said:
Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.0 -
Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...grabcocque said:
Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.kinabalu said:
A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.Nigel_Foremain said:How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant
So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.0 -
These people have claimed refugee status in the UK, not France, so France can legitimately claim that it's an internal matter for the UK. However, both countries do have a vested interest in stamping out the human trafficking rings that are responsible for the bulk of these perilous channel crossings, because trafficking is a vile crime and nobody wants to see it continue.TheWhiteRabbit said:
So in simple terms, France is refusing asylum to people because it wants to change the rules so that it doesn't have to?grabcocque said:
Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.0 -
More numpties dumping their crap where it doesn't belong.JosiasJessop said:
To put that into perspective, it is likely that a small Israeli company will land a lander on the Moon this year. What the Chinese is doing is awesome, but not compared to (say) what the Japanese have done with Hyabusa2.Nigelb said:
And let us not forget extra-global reach...david_herdson said:
I did a thread on this a while ago:Nigelb said:
That is beginning to be untrue. For example:ydoethur said:
The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.Anorak said:
"Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.david_herdson said:
Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):Anorak said:Off the chart mental (Lilico, that is!)
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1080446162962911232
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jan/02/chinese-spacecraft-to-become-first-to-land-on-far-side-of-moon-chang-e-4
...
How about a mission to go to the moon to clear up the mess left there by the previous missions?0 -
The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.grabcocque said:
Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.0 -
The Calais boat people are escaping the tyrany that is Macron's France.eek said:
The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...Theuniondivvie said:0 -
From a humanitarian perspective, the UK approach was streets and streets ahead.eek said:
Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...grabcocque said:
Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.kinabalu said:
A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.Nigel_Foremain said:How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant
So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.0 -
We don't take large numbers in any case, not relative to many other countries.grabcocque said:Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.
So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
The issue is emotive, not because of scale, but because of something else.
What?
Not totally sure, but it's to do with fear, resentment, internalized guilt.
Don't wish to imply that I'm immune from such pangs. I'm not.0 -
The salient difference is that the Chinese have unlimited political will to take KIAs and the UK has almost none. One of the many reasons why we lost in Basra was that casualties were politically difficult and all other military objectives were gradually abandoned in favour of force protection.ydoethur said:
The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.Anorak said:
"Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.david_herdson said:
Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):Anorak said:Off the chart mental (Lilico, that is!)
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1080446162962911232
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/0 -
Difference is, France and Italy are part of the common immigration and asylum policy for the Schengen area. No such arrangement exists between the UK and France. Mostly at the UK's insistence.Sean_F said:
The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.grabcocque said:
Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.0 -
The ones who get to Calais are mostly fit young men who are economic migrants. Cameron rightly arranged to take genuine refugees directly from the sources in Syria and elsewhere.eek said:
Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...grabcocque said:
Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.kinabalu said:
A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.Nigel_Foremain said:How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant
So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.0 -
And it's identical to the issue we now face with France. By given preferential treatment to those who are on our shores we encourage people to pay people traffickers rather than wait..Anorak said:
From a humanitarian perspective, the UK approach was streets and streets ahead.eek said:
Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...grabcocque said:
Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.kinabalu said:
A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.Nigel_Foremain said:How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant
So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.0 -
I wrote a little bit of a post but changed my mind and deleted it related to this.Foxy said:
It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346
"Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."
Any suggestions?
At around the time of the referendum there was problems with a (I think) steel plant in South Wales. It was helpfully suggested somewhere the government could do more to help if we weren't in the EU. Clearly that was the only thing holding back the Tories from pouring investment into South Wales...
In the age groups that heavily voted leave they have just seen decline from our time in the EU, from heavy industrial zones to just poor towns hanging on (this is partially from the article)
There is an immigration theme that plays well even in places here without many immigrants but I suspect much of that feeling is related to the economic decline and maybe the assumption the immigrants are now taking what they had (or their fair share)
Lots of different things but probably some kind of improvement, economic mainly. Maybe the return of heavy industry for some and government investment in some other kind of work for others. I don't actually see it happening directly from Brexit but then that is why I voted remain.
0 -
Well, that's surely for the Home Office to decide on a case-by-case basis when it hears their applications for refugee status.David_Evershed said:
The ones who get to Calais are mostly fit young men who are economic migrants. Cameron rightly arranged to take genuine refugees from the sources in Syria and elsewhere.
Being "fit" and "young" does not disqualify people from being refugees.0 -
During the Greece crisis, a woman dressed in blue was accused (with some justification) of bullying and destroying the economic base of a smaller nation speaking a different language.Foxy said:
It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346
"Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."
Any suggestions?
The Valleys went "Uh-huh. Seen that before..."0 -
Quite right too. Asylum shouldn't be some "A La Carte" menu of claimants going where they desire; but rather the first 'safe country' set menu.Sean_F said:
The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.grabcocque said:
Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.0 -
Though we have taken only a tiny proportion (11000 at 1 year ago) compared to several hundred times that across the rest of Europe.Anorak said:
From a humanitarian perspective, the UK approach was streets and streets ahead.eek said:
Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...grabcocque said:
Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.kinabalu said:
A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.Nigel_Foremain said:How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant
So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
https://fullfact.org/immigration/syrian-refugees-uk/
0 -
I like him! Really! Am I the only one?SouthamObserver said:0 -
That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.TrèsDifficile said:
The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.eek said:
The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...Theuniondivvie said:
The question is, what happens if you don't.0 -
Surely rocking up at Tehran airport and taking a scheduled flight to Belgrade is an indicator that someone is not fleeing persecution?grabcocque said:
Well, that's surely for the Home Office to decide on a case-by-case basis when it hears their applications for refugee status.David_Evershed said:
The ones who get to Calais are mostly fit young men who are economic migrants. Cameron rightly arranged to take genuine refugees from the sources in Syria and elsewhere.
Being "fit" and "young" does not disqualify people from being refugees.0 -
Utter bilge. This "first safe country" arse-pull rightwingers cling to is another absurd fiction. Not only do the UNHCR conventions say nothing about "first safe countries", it should be painfully obvious what would have happened if we'd tried to apply this terrible idea to Syria.Pulpstar said:
Quite right too. Asylum shouldn't be some "A La Carte" menu of claimants going where they desire; but rather the first 'safe country' set menu.Sean_F said:
The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.grabcocque said:
Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
And, let's be honest, it's just another racist right wing excuse for why we don't want brown people living amonst us.
In any case, it's irrelevant what the channel crossers' first safe country was. These people are here, now, and have made a claim for refugee status here. The only other reasonable option to granting them refugee status is asking France to take them, and France will say no.0 -
People who can book flights can't be persecuted?SandyRentool said:
Surely rocking up at Tehran airport and taking a scheduled flight to Belgrade is an indicator that someone is not fleeing persecution?grabcocque said:
Well, that's surely for the Home Office to decide on a case-by-case basis when it hears their applications for refugee status.David_Evershed said:
The ones who get to Calais are mostly fit young men who are economic migrants. Cameron rightly arranged to take genuine refugees from the sources in Syria and elsewhere.
Being "fit" and "young" does not disqualify people from being refugees.
That's an interesting idea.0 -
I suppose it's an occupational hazard for each foreign minister to think that her/his particular nation has some special "role" on the world stage.FF43 said:Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952
Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?
But perhaps the British Foreign Secretary, just at this particular time, might be forgiven for concentrating on more pressing practical issues.0 -
Being an asylum seeker isn't an international passport to travel wherever you want.grabcocque said:
Utter bilge. This "first safe country" arse-pull rightwingers cling to is another absurd fiction. Not only do the UNHCR conventions say nothing about "first safe countries", it should be painfully obvious what would have happened if we'd tried to apply this terrible idea to Syria.Pulpstar said:
Quite right too. Asylum shouldn't be some "A La Carte" menu of claimants going where they desire; but rather the first 'safe country' set menu.Sean_F said:
The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.grabcocque said:
Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
And, let's be honest, it's just another racist right wing excuse for why we don't want brown people living amonst us.
In any case, it's irrelevant what the channel crossers' first safe country was. These people are here, now, and have made a claim for refugee status here. The only other reasonable option to granting them refugee status is asking France to take them, and France will say no.0 -
He comes across as a nice guy*, I don't agree with him politically but his personality isn't that off putting. The 'shut up and go away' whilst maybe a little bit more puppy dog than I would like is sort of adorable and far better than being some angry hawk filled with aggressive rhetoric.viewcode said:
I like him! Really! Am I the only one?SouthamObserver said:
*Which isn't to say he is.0 -
Ah, so Brexit will reopen the mines, steel works and textile factories of the valleys, will it?viewcode said:
During the Greece crisis, a woman dressed in blue was accused (with some justification) of bullying and destroying the economic base of a smaller nation speaking a different language.Foxy said:
It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346
"Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."
Any suggestions?
The Valleys went "Uh-huh. Seen that before..."
Personally it looks to me that funding priorities will be even less for these communities, as the country re-organises around Brexit. South Wales will be at the back of that queue, particularly with a Tory Brexit.
0 -
I like that photo. You can imagine him asking him if the gun has a sun roof.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.Quincel said:
True, but his run was exceptional in many ways.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes, and indeed Biden, like all the others, is said to be pondering a run, but at the moment he wins on name recognition because he was Obama's Vice-President for eight years. It is like the next Tory leader polls show that people have seen Boris and JRM on the telly.
Look back four years at how many GOP runners made the primaries, and the Democrats are not even at that stage yet. The chances are the eventual candidate will be someone we'd not recognise. You could have named your own price for Trump.
For 2016: Clinton lead in every poll with her name in throughout early 2015 and was presumptive nominee in the media.
For 2012: Romney was a widely discussed candidate and led many polls in early 2011 (interestingly so did Trump in a couple of polls, though he didn't in early 2015).
For 2008: McCain was in the top 2 or 3 of most polls in Jan 2007 and lead some.
For 2008: Obama likewise was second in most polls and a widely discussed candidate in the press.
This time the nationwide leader for the Dem polls is Biden - maybe he should be favourite over Harris/O'Rourke (definitely over the latter, imho). The other thing which jumps out at me is that Harris is polling surprisingly low in many polls, basically the same as Warren (who perhaps deserves more credit than she's getting, though I'm not convinced since name recognition surely makes Harris' high single figures more impressive).
Primaries certainly aren't easy to predict, even at this point, but the eventual winner has tended to be very much on the radar by this point.
All figures from the relevant Wikipedia pages.0 -
That's not true, heading into Austria from Hungry / Slovenia you won't get very far without your id card / passport and the same is true between Austria and Germany although the Germans will just wave most Austrian cars through...rcs1000 said:
That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.TrèsDifficile said:
The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.eek said:
The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...Theuniondivvie said:
The question is, what happens if you don't.0 -
Are they going to count the votes more quickly than normal in California this time round ?rcs1000 said:
Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.
0 -
After the 'Crash' and especially during the Coalition years the argument was that we were all in this together and that austerity was the way out of it. However, that austerity seemed to apply to those at the bottom of the heap, while there were some clear examples of those much higher up not, apparently at least, doing their share of the 'heavy lifting'. Top rates of tax, for example, weren't raised while wages at the bottom were frozen. Yes, I know tax-free pay was increased a little, but while that makes some difference, it doesn't make much.TheJezziah said:
I wrote a little bit of a post but changed my mind and deleted it related to this.Foxy said:
It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346
"Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."
Any suggestions?
At around the time of the referendum there was problems with a (I think) steel plant in South Wales. It was helpfully suggested somewhere the government could do more to help if we weren't in the EU. Clearly that was the only thing holding back the Tories from pouring investment into South Wales...
In the age groups that heavily voted leave they have just seen decline from our time in the EU, from heavy industrial zones to just poor towns hanging on (this is partially from the article)
There is an immigration theme that plays well even in places here without many immigrants but I suspect much of that feeling is related to the economic decline and maybe the assumption the immigrants are now taking what they had (or their fair share)
Lots of different things but probably some kind of improvement, economic mainly. Maybe the return of heavy industry for some and government investment in some other kind of work for others. I don't actually see it happening directly from Brexit but then that is why I voted remain.
The old song:
It's the rich wot make the trouble
It's the poor wot get the blame
It's the same whole world over
Ain't it all a bleeding shame?'
Applied and the Left was supposed to be trying to shift some of that blame.
If those at the top thought they were going to get shafted by leaving the EU, well, then here's a heave from me, was, I think, the 'thinking'.
And yes, I voted Remain. And would do so again.0 -
This one has a certain formal beauty of composition:grabcocque said:
I like that photo. You can imagine him asking him if the gun has a sun roof.Richard_Nabavi said:
http://www.zimbio.com/photos/David+Miliband/Bob+Ainsworth/Labour+Party+Hold+Their+Annual+Party+Conference/MPIoc4UlpkZ
0 -
How often do we send carrier groups into the Pacific?david_herdson said:
In many ways, China is a superpower, and in other ways it is developing as one. However, there is an argument that as an embryonic superpower, it's still treading warily in establishing a global footprint - how often do they send ships into the Atlantic? As such, it is arguably not yet a truly global power in a way that Britain, despite its smaller resources and economy, is.Anorak said:
"Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.david_herdson said:
Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):Anorak said:Off the chart mental (Lilico, that is!)
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1080446162962911232
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
Now, that's not an argument that I'd push too far but there is some merit to it.
Oh. We don't have carrier groups yet.
Is sending a couple of small ships to the Pacific really "projecting power".0 -
I think you will find he is concentrating on pressing practical issues, namely his leadership campaign. And going to foreign countries to utter ridiculously banal and pompous bollox about the UKs imagined world role goes down a storm with the Tory faithful.Chris said:
I suppose it's an occupational hazard for each foreign minister to think that her/his particular nation has some special "role" on the world stage.FF43 said:Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952
Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?
But perhaps the British Foreign Secretary, just at this particular time, might be forgiven for concentrating on more pressing practical issues.0 -
He's clearly concealing a hard on in the right photo What an utter fucking clown.SouthamObserver said:0 -
The tax fee allowance was raised more than just a little, wasn't it?OldKingCole said:
After the 'Crash' and especially during the Coalition years the argument was that we were all in this together and that austerity was the way out of it. However, that austerity seemed to apply to those at the bottom of the heap, while there were some clear examples of those much higher up not, apparently at least, doing their share of the 'heavy lifting'. Top rates of tax, for example, weren't raised while wages at the bottom were frozen. Yes, I know tax-free pay was increased a little, but while that makes some difference, it doesn't make much.
The old song:
It's the rich wot make the trouble
It's the poor wot get the blame
It's the same whole world over
Ain't it all a bleeding shame?'
Applied and the Left was supposed to be trying to shift some of that blame.
If those at the top thought they were going to get shafted by leaving the EU, well, then here's a heave from me, was, I think, the 'thinking'.
And yes, I voted Remain. And would do so again.0 -
Austerity seemed to hit those councils who got Government grants due to lower council tax takes. Areas up north with lots of houses in council band a and B did badly those down south with houses in bands D and above did rather better...OldKingCole said:
After the 'Crash' and especially during the Coalition years the argument was that we were all in this together and that austerity was the way out of it. However, that austerity seemed to apply to those at the bottom of the heap, while there were some clear examples of those much higher up not, apparently at least, doing their share of the 'heavy lifting'. Top rates of tax, for example, weren't raised while wages at the bottom were frozen. Yes, I know tax-free pay was increased a little, but while that makes some difference, it doesn't make much.
The old song:
It's the rich wot make the trouble
It's the poor wot get the blame
It's the same whole world over
Ain't it all a bleeding shame?'
Applied and the Left was supposed to be trying to shift some of that blame.
If those at the top thought they were going to get shafted by leaving the EU, well, then here's a heave from me, was, I think, the 'thinking'.
And yes, I voted Remain. And would do so again.0 -
It isn't not that, either.Sean_F said:
Being an asylum seeker isn't an international passport to travel wherever you want.
As a signatory to the UNHCR conventions on the rights of refugees, we agree to hear all applications of refugee status, on a case by case basis. If the person is from an unsafe country, there's a reasonable expectation it would be granted, because returning people to unsafe countries is a Bad Thing.
0 -
Then let's look at Syria. The nearest 'safe' countries can be seen as places like Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan (and it's great to be able to say that Lebanon can be classed as a 'safe' country). You might want to look at the table to see where the refugees have mostly gone:grabcocque said:
Utter bilge. This "first safe country" arse-pull rightwingers cling to is another absurd fiction. Not only do the UNHCR conventions say nothing about "first safe countries", it should be painfully obvious what would have happened if we'd tried to apply this terrible idea to Syria.Pulpstar said:
Quite right too. Asylum shouldn't be some "A La Carte" menu of claimants going where they desire; but rather the first 'safe country' set menu.Sean_F said:
The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.grabcocque said:
Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?grabcocque said:
Who, France?TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?
We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
(Snip)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_the_Syrian_Civil_War
Many countries neighbouring Syria have taken a massive amount of the refugees, and have suffered economically (and in some cases socially) from it. Cameron was right in trying to help these countries deal with this burden.
Where the "arse-pull rightwingers"do deserve criticism is for their whinging and screeching when we tried to help those countries out.0 -
If Kamala wins the Dems and Nikki Haley, one of the favourite alternatives to Trump, wins the Republicans then we could be certain that the next POTUS is of Indian ancestry.rcs1000 said:
Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.Quincel said:
True, but his run was exceptional in many ways.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes, and indeed Biden, like all the others, is said to be pondering a run, but at the moment he wins on name recognition because he was Obama's Vice-President for eight years. It is like the next Tory leader polls show that people have seen Boris and JRM on the telly.
Look back four years at how many GOP runners made the primaries, and the Democrats are not even at that stage yet. The chances are the eventual candidate will be someone we'd not recognise. You could have named your own price for Trump.
For 2016: Clinton lead in every poll with her name in throughout early 2015 and was presumptive nominee in the media.
For 2012: Romney was a widely discussed candidate and led many polls in early 2011 (interestingly so did Trump in a couple of polls, though he didn't in early 2015).
For 2008: McCain was in the top 2 or 3 of most polls in Jan 2007 and lead some.
For 2008: Obama likewise was second in most polls and a widely discussed candidate in the press.
This time the nationwide leader for the Dem polls is Biden - maybe he should be favourite over Harris/O'Rourke (definitely over the latter, imho). The other thing which jumps out at me is that Harris is polling surprisingly low in many polls, basically the same as Warren (who perhaps deserves more credit than she's getting, though I'm not convinced since name recognition surely makes Harris' high single figures more impressive).
Primaries certainly aren't easy to predict, even at this point, but the eventual winner has tended to be very much on the radar by this point.
All figures from the relevant Wikipedia pages.
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The more interesting question is what they do once they realise that leaving the EU doesn't change their lot one iota.eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/10804487255987773460 -
Well even three months earlier than usual, it it is still after Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina; and the same day as Beto's home state of Texas.Pulpstar said:
Are they going to count the votes more quickly than normal in California this time round ?rcs1000 said:
Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.
Could be an interesting one if Warren, Biden and/or Sanders do well in those earlier states.0 -
That's the point. The asylum seekers who are the subject of this discussion are not coming from an unsafe country.grabcocque said:
It isn't not that, either.Sean_F said:
Being an asylum seeker isn't an international passport to travel wherever you want.
As a signatory to the UNHCR conventions on the rights of refugees, we agree to hear all applications of refugee status, on a case by case basis. If the person is from an unsafe country, there's a reasonable expectation it would be granted, because returning people to unsafe countries is a Bad Thing.0 -
It's just you and that woman at the fireplace showroom he was fucking on the side.viewcode said:
I like him! Really! Am I the only one?SouthamObserver said:0 -
I’ve recently driven across the Hungary/Austria border and there was no sign of any checks.eek said:
That's not true, heading into Austria from Hungry / Slovenia you won't get very far without your id card / passport and the same is true between Austria and Germany although the Germans will just wave most Austrian cars through...rcs1000 said:
That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.TrèsDifficile said:
The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.eek said:
The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...Theuniondivvie said:
The question is, what happens if you don't.0 -
I stand corrected. And perhaps Singapore is remote enough that a sympathetic appearance there won't alienate any significant faction of the Tory party. Perhaps ...anothernick said:
I think you will find he is concentrating on pressing practical issues, namely his leadership campaign. And going to foreign countries to utter ridiculously banal and pompous bollox about the UKs imagined world role goes down a storm with the Tory faithful.Chris said:
I suppose it's an occupational hazard for each foreign minister to think that her/his particular nation has some special "role" on the world stage.FF43 said:Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952
Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?
But perhaps the British Foreign Secretary, just at this particular time, might be forgiven for concentrating on more pressing practical issues.0 -
Brexit will not reopen the mines, steel works and textile factories of the Valleys. But those things are long gone: the days when Wales (or any other part of the UK) could sustain such extraordinarily dangerous industries routinely are in the past. You are correct when you say that Brexit will f**k up the Valleys, but they have been f**ked for some years now and have learned to cope with it. Economic arguments only go so far with people with not much money. They may change their mind in five-ten years, but right now it's too late.Foxy said:
Ah, so Brexit will reopen the mines, steel works and textile factories of the valleys, will it?viewcode said:
During the Greece crisis, a woman dressed in blue was accused (with some justification) of bullying and destroying the economic base of a smaller nation speaking a different language.Foxy said:
It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346
"Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."
Any suggestions?
The Valleys went "Uh-huh. Seen that before..."
Personally it looks to me that funding priorities will be even less for these communities, as the country re-organises around Brexit. South Wales will be at the back of that queue, particularly with a Tory Brexit.0 -
Paddy Power has settled the May to stay till 2019 markets you'll be pleased to hear.
Though I sometimes wonder if I'm the only person that's bet on this sort of market with them rather than Pogba to score a hattrick this season/ Liverpool to win the title accumulators.0 -
But my point is that's irrelevant. We have two options, we either grant them refugee status or ask France to. And France isn't going to do that.Sean_F said:
That's the point. The asylum seekers who are the subject of this discussion are not coming from an unsafe country.grabcocque said:
It isn't not that, either.Sean_F said:
Being an asylum seeker isn't an international passport to travel wherever you want.
As a signatory to the UNHCR conventions on the rights of refugees, we agree to hear all applications of refugee status, on a case by case basis. If the person is from an unsafe country, there's a reasonable expectation it would be granted, because returning people to unsafe countries is a Bad Thing.
The focus needs to be on finding and shutting down the human trafficking rings responsible, which is very much in both our interests. Before the bodies start piling up in the Channel.0 -
And not in the left photo??Dura_Ace said:
He's clearly concealing a hard on in the right photo What an utter fucking clown.SouthamObserver said:0 -
I think I had £20 tbf, so you've done me a favour.Pulpstar said:Paddy Power has settled the May to stay till 2019 markets you'll be pleased to hear.
Though I sometimes wonder if I'm the only person that's bet on this sort of market with them rather than Pogba to score a hattrick this season/ Liverpool to win the title accumulators.
I think so far I am +£150 on May's exit date, something like that.0 -
Mr. Chris, are you honestly criticising him for showing support for the troops?
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Really very firm support.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Chris, are you honestly criticising him for showing support for the troops?
Rock hard, in fact.0 -
The EU’s desire to place refugees in Germany into other countriesTheWhiteRabbit said:
What do they think we are in breach of?grabcocque said:
Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.kinabalu said:
A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.Nigel_Foremain said:How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant
So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.0 -
Well, it won't be Tory. Plaid Cymru, perhaps, there are some small signs now and again. Look at Caerphilly.OllyT said:
The more interesting question is what they do once they realise that leaving the EU doesn't change their lot one iota.eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346
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The Schengen free movement area only applies to citizens of member states, and to those holding valid Schengen visas. Countries are not obliged to permit entry of other nationals.eek said:
That's not true, heading into Austria from Hungry / Slovenia you won't get very far without your id card / passport and the same is true between Austria and Germany although the Germans will just wave most Austrian cars through...rcs1000 said:
That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.TrèsDifficile said:
The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.eek said:
The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...Theuniondivvie said:
The question is, what happens if you don't.0 -
My book isTheWhiteRabbit said:
Well even three months earlier than usual, it it is still after Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina; and the same day as Beto's home state of Texas.Pulpstar said:
Are they going to count the votes more quickly than normal in California this time round ?rcs1000 said:
Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.
Could be an interesting one if Warren, Biden and/or Sanders do well in those earlier states.
++Klobuchar
++ Ojeda/Avenatti (Unlikely)
+ Warren (Backed and laid)
+ Biden (All about whether he runs or not)
+ Brown
+ Pence/Kasich (Potus)
- The field (Harris, Sanders etc)
+ Trump (To run)
+ Democrats/- GOP (To win)
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What the gammons are really getting upset over today is..
https://twitter.com/GreggsOfficial/status/1080403000722710528
Expecting a statement from Javid/Hunt/Fireplace Gav any minute now.0 -
Oh, I know. But we're meant to be leaving, so we won't count. Which leaves Ireland ex-Schengen. How many Syrians are trying to paddle there?rcs1000 said:
That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.TrèsDifficile said:
The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.eek said:
The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...Theuniondivvie said:
The question is, what happens if you don't.0 -
The erosion of class based voting does make the Tory vote increasingly based on WWC nationalists, albeit generally in less deprived areas than the Welsh Valleys. Personally, I cannot see that as compatible with Hunt's vision of Singapore in the Atlantic. Indeed, it looks like foundations of sand to me unless Brexit delivers impossible prosperity to these places.OldKingCole said:
Well, it won't be Tory. Plaid Cymru, perhaps, there are some small signs now and again. Look at Caerphilly.OllyT said:
The more interesting question is what they do once they realise that leaving the EU doesn't change their lot one iota.eek said:An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..
https://twitter.com/unherd/status/10804487255987773460 -
That has to be bad on her back. Marble fireplaces are very uncomfortable.Dura_Ace said:
It's just you and that woman at the fireplace showroom he was fucking on the side.viewcode said:
I like him! Really! Am I the only one?SouthamObserver said:
In the remake of The Thomas Crown Affair, there's a love scene between Brosnan and Rene Russo on a marble staircase. Throughout the entire thing I was thinking: "Damn, that's really going to mess up her vertebrae".
Pause.
I'll get me coat... (0 -
Which was my point that even when you are within Schengen you may not be able to travel passport / Id card free as rcs1000 claims is possible.Foxy said:
The Schengen free movement area only applies to citizens of member states, and to those holding valid Schengen visas. Countries are not obliged to permit entry of other nationals.eek said:
That's not true, heading into Austria from Hungry / Slovenia you won't get very far without your id card / passport and the same is true between Austria and Germany although the Germans will just wave most Austrian cars through...rcs1000 said:
That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.TrèsDifficile said:
The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.eek said:
The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...Theuniondivvie said:
The question is, what happens if you don't.0
