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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Asking Paddy Power why they haven't settled up a May to remain in post bet they stuck up as '2019 or later'. Unless they think she is going to err live forever.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2019
    Quincel said:

    The other thing which jumps out at me is that Harris is polling surprisingly low in many polls, basically the same as Warren (who perhaps deserves more credit than she's getting, though I'm not convinced since name recognition surely makes Harris' high single figures more impressive).

    Kamala Harris seems seriously overrated. She's not particularly experienced, her polling is meh, she may not be running, she has the dullest twitter feed in the history of twitter feeds, and imagine what Warren is going to do with this:

    In the memo, the leaders of the state attorney general’s Consumer Law Section said they had “uncovered evidence suggestive of widespread misconduct” in a yearlong investigation. In a detailed 22-page request, they identified over a thousand legal violations in the small subsection of OneWest loans they were able to examine, and they recommended that Attorney General Kamala Harris file a civil enforcement action against the Pasadena-based bank. They even wrote up a sample legal complaint, seeking injunctive relief and millions of dollars in penalties.

    But Harris’s office, without any explanation, declined to prosecute the case.

    https://theintercept.com/2017/01/03/treasury-nominee-steve-mnuchins-bank-accused-of-widespread-misconduct-in-leaked-memo/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,012
    edited January 2019
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Would you also say that about @Cyclefree

    She made the same point yesterday (and I agree with her)

    We have a moral duty to assist asylum seekers. We may be interested in economic migrants. We are not interested in law breakers.

    Are any of those views unethical?

    It does not help to conflate the categories
    Is Cyclefree a candidate for leadership of the Tory party? Did she say that the UK should be able to reject asylum applications out of hand without any due process, regardless of the circumstances of the case?
    She would be a compelling candidate (to the extent that desiring the job doesn’t automatically make you unqualified)

    She said that all asylum seekers who arrived from France should be rejected. Presumably after a process.
    So neither of the related prickishnesses that Javid is displaying? Glad we've settled that.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Asking Paddy Power why they haven't settled up a May to remain in post bet they stuck up as '2019 or later'. Unless they think she is going to err live forever.

    Pulps. Do you know where PP have hidden the rules associated with individual bets since their web redesign?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Thread for Grabcoque, in the hope of arresting his maritime derangement: https://twitter.com/ShipBrief/status/1080406268215476224

    He's certainly been all at sea this morning.
    Holed below the waterline...
    He's certainly handed his credibility over on a plate. It's been riveting though.
    The puns just roll on, roll off.....
    You're ramping things up...
    But this ferry pun could be terminal.
    Nah. It’s the herald of free enterprise
    That one merits astern rebuke.
    I’d make you a marchioness if you’d change your vote
    My goodness, you are sinking to some titanic clangers this afternoon.
    I think you're Lusing it, Tania.
    Well done, you worked 'cun 'ard at that one.

    Gold White Star!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2019
    PS Steve Mnuchin, whose bank Harris declined to prosecute, is featured prominently in Warren's announcement video.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Asking Paddy Power why they haven't settled up a May to remain in post bet they stuck up as '2019 or later'. Unless they think she is going to err live forever.

    Pulps. Do you know where PP have hidden the rules associated with individual bets since their web redesign?
    https://myaccount.paddypower.com/summary/accountsummary try there.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
    "Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.
    The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.
    That is beginning to be untrue. For example:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
    I did a thread on this a while ago:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Asking Paddy Power why they haven't settled up a May to remain in post bet they stuck up as '2019 or later'. Unless they think she is going to err live forever.

    Pulps. Do you know where PP have hidden the rules associated with individual bets since their web redesign?
    https://myaccount.paddypower.com/summary/accountsummary try there.
    I will try it at home, thanks. I assume that must be *after* you've bet...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, comrades.

    About a month and a half until the first car reveals of the season, ahead of testing. Still awaiting a confirmed calendar.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019
    FF43 said:

    Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.

    https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952

    Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?

    The Economist's democracy index gives Singapore a score of 63% which makes it a "flawed democracy".

    It's a nominally a functional multiparty democracy, but pluralism is seriously impaired because the PAP uses defamation lawsuits to bankrupt political opponents and disqualify them from running for office.

    The PAP has 83/89 seats in the Singaporean parliament, a somewhat higher ratio than United Russia has in the Diet or the Communist Party of China has in the National People's Congress.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,285

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
    "Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.
    The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.
    That is beginning to be untrue. For example:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
    I did a thread on this a while ago:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
    Doesn't surprise that you got there before me, David.

    Still, I don't expect China to greatly expand their global military presence until they've settled the issue of Taiwan...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Good afternoon, comrades.

    About a month and a half until the first car reveals of the season, ahead of testing. Still awaiting a confirmed calendar.

    No Deal Brexit calendar:

    Round 1: Castle Combe
    Round 2: Thruxton
    Round 3: Rockingham
    Round 4: Oulton Park
    Round 5: Snetterton
    Round 6: Donnington Park
    Round 7: Silverstone
    Round 8: Knockhill
    Round 9: Cadwell Park
    Round 10: Brands Hatch
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited January 2019
    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    Good afternoon, comrades.

    About a month and a half until the first car reveals of the season, ahead of testing. Still awaiting a confirmed calendar.

    No Deal Brexit calendar:

    Round 1: Castle Combe
    Round 2: Thruxton
    Round 3: Rockingham
    Round 4: Oulton Park
    Round 5: Snetterton
    Round 6: Donnington Park
    Round 7: Silverstone
    Round 8: Knockhill
    Round 9: Cadwell Park
    Round 10: Brands Hatch
    I was imagining something closer to Death Race 2000.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant

    A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.

    It is however problematical. For 2 reasons, one of principle and the other of practicality.

    The principle being violated is the one which asserts that people are of equal intrinsic worth. If a person is penniless and famished, are they not allowed to state (as many who are more fortunate would have no hesitation in doing) that they don't like sprouts?

    And in practice, such a strict formulation would mean that countries who happen to border, or be close to, trouble spots would be spoilt for refugees, leaving countries such as ours small-changed and out in the cold.
  • eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    What is "the left" on Europe? Corbyn voted leave (probably). He certainly campaigned for Brexit before it was cool.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,285

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
    "Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.
    The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.
    That is beginning to be untrue. For example:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
    I did a thread on this a while ago:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
    And let us not forget extra-global reach...
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jan/02/chinese-spacecraft-to-become-first-to-land-on-far-side-of-moon-chang-e-4
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Would you also say that about @Cyclefree

    She made the same point yesterday (and I agree with her)

    We have a moral duty to assist asylum seekers. We may be interested in economic migrants. We are not interested in law breakers.

    Are any of those views unethical?

    It does not help to conflate the categories
    Is Cyclefree a candidate for leadership of the Tory party? Did she say that the UK should be able to reject asylum applications out of hand without any due process, regardless of the circumstances of the case?
    She would be a compelling candidate (to the extent that desiring the job doesn’t automatically make you unqualified)

    She said that all asylum seekers who arrived from France should be rejected. Presumably after a process.
    But isn't that in light of a desire to avoid people risking life travelling across the channel in an overloaded dingy...

    as I was going to post in answer to edmundintokyo - the issue is that the people crossing the channel are no longer just a refugee and the idea that they should continue to risk their life seems rather surprising...
    Not at all surprising

    The perceived upside is very high, people always underestimate personal risk (it’ll never happen to me)

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kinabalu said:

    How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant

    A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.
    Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.

    So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
  • kinabalu said:

    How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant

    A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.
    Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.

    So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
    What do they think we are in breach of?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    FF43 said:

    Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.

    https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952

    Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?

    The Economist's democracy index gives Singapore a score of 63% which makes it a "flawed democracy".

    It's a nominally a functional multiparty democracy, but pluralism is seriously impaired because the PAP uses defamation lawsuits to bankrupt political opponents and disqualify them from running for office.

    The PAP has 83/89 seats in the Singaporean parliament, a somewhat higher ratio than United Russia has in the Diet or the Communist Party of China has in the National People's Congress.
    Lee Kuan Yew and his son Lee Hsein Loong have held the position of PM for 45 out of the last 60 years.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    FF43 said:

    Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.

    https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952

    Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?

    Invisible is right, when it comes to anything positive from Brexit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Pulpstar said:

    Simply back the 40 and 'take the value'. Not worth arbing at this point, unless you're trying to build a portfolio of losers; but its not obvious she's poor value even at 25s.

    Yes, now done.

    Come on Amy. Let's Dump the Trump!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    What is "the left" on Europe? Corbyn voted leave (probably). He certainly campaigned for Brexit before it was cool.
    Tony Benn did, too. Part at least of the Left has always been suspicious of the EU as a 'capitalist plot'. The moderate Left saw it more as internationalism in practice.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    tlg86 said:

    Good afternoon, comrades.

    About a month and a half until the first car reveals of the season, ahead of testing. Still awaiting a confirmed calendar.

    No Deal Brexit calendar:

    Round 1: Castle Combe
    Round 2: Thruxton
    Round 3: Rockingham
    Round 4: Oulton Park
    Round 5: Snetterton
    Round 6: Donnington Park
    Round 7: Silverstone
    Round 8: Knockhill
    Round 9: Cadwell Park
    Round 10: Brands Hatch
    The sad thing is there'd be more excitement in a formula 8 race at one of those courses than in a season of F1 ... ;)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.

  • What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
    "Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.
    The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.
    That is beginning to be untrue. For example:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
    I did a thread on this a while ago:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
    Doesn't surprise that you got there before me, David.

    Still, I don't expect China to greatly expand their global military presence until they've settled the issue of Taiwan...
    Taiwan will, I suspect, remain a running sore through US-Chinese diplomatic relations for decades. However, as there's not really much that China can do while the US stands firmly with Taiwan, I don't think that Beijing can allow it to act as a roadblock to wider ambitions (or military/diplomatic necessities, depending on how you see it), particularly in and around the Indian Ocean.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    What is "the left" on Europe? Corbyn voted leave (probably). He certainly campaigned for Brexit before it was cool.
    Tony Benn did, too. Part at least of the Left has always been suspicious of the EU as a 'capitalist plot'. The moderate Left saw it more as internationalism in practice.
    That was then, as the EU moved towards protecting things like workers rights and the environment the left started to embrace it, not particularly passionately though. Even Corbyn found himself voting for it (in Parliament) before campaigning for it in the referendum.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:

    "Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."

    Any suggestions?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
    Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
    "Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.
    The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.
    That is beginning to be untrue. For example:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
    I did a thread on this a while ago:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
    And let us not forget extra-global reach...
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jan/02/chinese-spacecraft-to-become-first-to-land-on-far-side-of-moon-chang-e-4
    To put that into perspective, it is likely that a small Israeli company will land a lander on the Moon this year. What the Chinese is doing is awesome, but not compared to (say) what the Japanese have done with Hyabusa2.

    More interestingly, it is rumoured that the Chinese will repair Russia's only aircraft carrier in return for turbine technology.

    This is after the Russians made a valiant attempt to sink the Kuznetsov along with its floating dry dock. They succeeded with the dock, but not carrier ...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    What is "the left" on Europe? Corbyn voted leave (probably). He certainly campaigned for Brexit before it was cool.
    Tony Benn did, too. Part at least of the Left has always been suspicious of the EU as a 'capitalist plot'. The moderate Left saw it more as internationalism in practice.
    That was then, as the EU moved towards protecting things like workers rights and the environment the left started to embrace it, not particularly passionately though. Even Corbyn found himself voting for it (in Parliament) before campaigning for it in the referendum.
    Perfectly true, but those things didn't percolate down as they should have done. The dreadful is that the Left, and 'Les Miserables' will, but voting to Leave, have handed themselves over to those who really want Victorian conditions to return, in terms of employment rights, education services and so on.
    As anyone who contemplates a NW European Singapore will realise.

  • What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
    Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.
    So in simple terms, France is refusing asylum to people because it wants to change the rules so that it doesn't have to?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    kinabalu said:

    How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant

    A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.
    Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.

    So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
    Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019


    What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
    Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.
    So in simple terms, France is refusing asylum to people because it wants to change the rules so that it doesn't have to?
    These people have claimed refugee status in the UK, not France, so France can legitimately claim that it's an internal matter for the UK. However, both countries do have a vested interest in stamping out the human trafficking rings that are responsible for the bulk of these perilous channel crossings, because trafficking is a vile crime and nobody wants to see it continue.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
    "Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.
    The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.
    That is beginning to be untrue. For example:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_People's_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
    I did a thread on this a while ago:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/25/the-sun-is-rising-in-the-east/
    And let us not forget extra-global reach...
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jan/02/chinese-spacecraft-to-become-first-to-land-on-far-side-of-moon-chang-e-4
    To put that into perspective, it is likely that a small Israeli company will land a lander on the Moon this year. What the Chinese is doing is awesome, but not compared to (say) what the Japanese have done with Hyabusa2.

    ...
    More numpties dumping their crap where it doesn't belong.

    How about a mission to go to the moon to clear up the mess left there by the previous missions?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389


    What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
    Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.
    The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.
  • eek said:

    The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...
    The Calais boat people are escaping the tyrany that is Macron's France.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant

    A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.
    Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.

    So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
    Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...
    From a humanitarian perspective, the UK approach was streets and streets ahead.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.

    So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.

    We don't take large numbers in any case, not relative to many other countries.

    The issue is emotive, not because of scale, but because of something else.

    What?

    Not totally sure, but it's to do with fear, resentment, internalized guilt.

    Don't wish to imply that I'm immune from such pangs. I'm not.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
    "Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.
    The argument is that for all the size of China's military it doesn't have the capability to deploy it outside the immediate area. Britain does. Therefore Britain can act globally and China only regionally.
    The salient difference is that the Chinese have unlimited political will to take KIAs and the UK has almost none. One of the many reasons why we lost in Basra was that casualties were politically difficult and all other military objectives were gradually abandoned in favour of force protection.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:


    What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
    Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.
    The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.
    Difference is, France and Italy are part of the common immigration and asylum policy for the Schengen area. No such arrangement exists between the UK and France. Mostly at the UK's insistence.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2019
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant

    A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.
    Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.

    So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
    Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...
    The ones who get to Calais are mostly fit young men who are economic migrants. Cameron rightly arranged to take genuine refugees directly from the sources in Syria and elsewhere.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Anorak said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant

    A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.
    Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.

    So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
    Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...
    From a humanitarian perspective, the UK approach was streets and streets ahead.
    And it's identical to the issue we now face with France. By given preferential treatment to those who are on our shores we encourage people to pay people traffickers rather than wait..
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:

    "Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."

    Any suggestions?
    I wrote a little bit of a post but changed my mind and deleted it related to this.

    At around the time of the referendum there was problems with a (I think) steel plant in South Wales. It was helpfully suggested somewhere the government could do more to help if we weren't in the EU. Clearly that was the only thing holding back the Tories from pouring investment into South Wales...

    In the age groups that heavily voted leave they have just seen decline from our time in the EU, from heavy industrial zones to just poor towns hanging on (this is partially from the article)

    There is an immigration theme that plays well even in places here without many immigrants but I suspect much of that feeling is related to the economic decline and maybe the assumption the immigrants are now taking what they had (or their fair share)

    Lots of different things but probably some kind of improvement, economic mainly. Maybe the return of heavy industry for some and government investment in some other kind of work for others. I don't actually see it happening directly from Brexit but then that is why I voted remain.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    The ones who get to Calais are mostly fit young men who are economic migrants. Cameron rightly arranged to take genuine refugees from the sources in Syria and elsewhere.

    Well, that's surely for the Home Office to decide on a case-by-case basis when it hears their applications for refugee status.

    Being "fit" and "young" does not disqualify people from being refugees.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:

    "Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."

    Any suggestions?
    During the Greece crisis, a woman dressed in blue was accused (with some justification) of bullying and destroying the economic base of a smaller nation speaking a different language.

    The Valleys went "Uh-huh. Seen that before..."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Sean_F said:


    What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
    Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.
    The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.
    Quite right too. Asylum shouldn't be some "A La Carte" menu of claimants going where they desire; but rather the first 'safe country' set menu.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Anorak said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant

    A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.
    Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.

    So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
    Isn't the reason why we were refusing to join because we wanted to take people directly from refugee camps in Turkey rather than just those that managed to swim / walk to Europe from Turkey...
    From a humanitarian perspective, the UK approach was streets and streets ahead.
    Though we have taken only a tiny proportion (11000 at 1 year ago) compared to several hundred times that across the rest of Europe.

    https://fullfact.org/immigration/syrian-refugees-uk/

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    eek said:

    The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...
    Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.

    The question is, what happens if you don't.
    The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.
    That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042


    The ones who get to Calais are mostly fit young men who are economic migrants. Cameron rightly arranged to take genuine refugees from the sources in Syria and elsewhere.

    Well, that's surely for the Home Office to decide on a case-by-case basis when it hears their applications for refugee status.

    Being "fit" and "young" does not disqualify people from being refugees.
    Surely rocking up at Tehran airport and taking a scheduled flight to Belgrade is an indicator that someone is not fleeing persecution?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:


    What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
    Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.
    The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.
    Quite right too. Asylum shouldn't be some "A La Carte" menu of claimants going where they desire; but rather the first 'safe country' set menu.
    Utter bilge. This "first safe country" arse-pull rightwingers cling to is another absurd fiction. Not only do the UNHCR conventions say nothing about "first safe countries", it should be painfully obvious what would have happened if we'd tried to apply this terrible idea to Syria.

    And, let's be honest, it's just another racist right wing excuse for why we don't want brown people living amonst us.

    In any case, it's irrelevant what the channel crossers' first safe country was. These people are here, now, and have made a claim for refugee status here. The only other reasonable option to granting them refugee status is asking France to take them, and France will say no.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    The ones who get to Calais are mostly fit young men who are economic migrants. Cameron rightly arranged to take genuine refugees from the sources in Syria and elsewhere.

    Well, that's surely for the Home Office to decide on a case-by-case basis when it hears their applications for refugee status.

    Being "fit" and "young" does not disqualify people from being refugees.
    Surely rocking up at Tehran airport and taking a scheduled flight to Belgrade is an indicator that someone is not fleeing persecution?
    People who can book flights can't be persecuted?

    That's an interesting idea.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    FF43 said:

    Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.

    https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952

    Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?

    I suppose it's an occupational hazard for each foreign minister to think that her/his particular nation has some special "role" on the world stage.

    But perhaps the British Foreign Secretary, just at this particular time, might be forgiven for concentrating on more pressing practical issues.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:


    What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
    Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.
    The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.
    Quite right too. Asylum shouldn't be some "A La Carte" menu of claimants going where they desire; but rather the first 'safe country' set menu.
    Utter bilge. This "first safe country" arse-pull rightwingers cling to is another absurd fiction. Not only do the UNHCR conventions say nothing about "first safe countries", it should be painfully obvious what would have happened if we'd tried to apply this terrible idea to Syria.

    And, let's be honest, it's just another racist right wing excuse for why we don't want brown people living amonst us.

    In any case, it's irrelevant what the channel crossers' first safe country was. These people are here, now, and have made a claim for refugee status here. The only other reasonable option to granting them refugee status is asking France to take them, and France will say no.
    Being an asylum seeker isn't an international passport to travel wherever you want.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    viewcode said:
    He comes across as a nice guy*, I don't agree with him politically but his personality isn't that off putting. The 'shut up and go away' whilst maybe a little bit more puppy dog than I would like is sort of adorable and far better than being some angry hawk filled with aggressive rhetoric.

    *Which isn't to say he is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:

    "Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."

    Any suggestions?
    During the Greece crisis, a woman dressed in blue was accused (with some justification) of bullying and destroying the economic base of a smaller nation speaking a different language.

    The Valleys went "Uh-huh. Seen that before..."
    Ah, so Brexit will reopen the mines, steel works and textile factories of the valleys, will it?

    Personally it looks to me that funding priorities will be even less for these communities, as the country re-organises around Brexit. South Wales will be at the back of that queue, particularly with a Tory Brexit.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Quincel said:



    Yes, and indeed Biden, like all the others, is said to be pondering a run, but at the moment he wins on name recognition because he was Obama's Vice-President for eight years. It is like the next Tory leader polls show that people have seen Boris and JRM on the telly.

    Look back four years at how many GOP runners made the primaries, and the Democrats are not even at that stage yet. The chances are the eventual candidate will be someone we'd not recognise. You could have named your own price for Trump.

    True, but his run was exceptional in many ways.

    For 2016: Clinton lead in every poll with her name in throughout early 2015 and was presumptive nominee in the media.
    For 2012: Romney was a widely discussed candidate and led many polls in early 2011 (interestingly so did Trump in a couple of polls, though he didn't in early 2015).
    For 2008: McCain was in the top 2 or 3 of most polls in Jan 2007 and lead some.
    For 2008: Obama likewise was second in most polls and a widely discussed candidate in the press.

    This time the nationwide leader for the Dem polls is Biden - maybe he should be favourite over Harris/O'Rourke (definitely over the latter, imho). The other thing which jumps out at me is that Harris is polling surprisingly low in many polls, basically the same as Warren (who perhaps deserves more credit than she's getting, though I'm not convinced since name recognition surely makes Harris' high single figures more impressive).

    Primaries certainly aren't easy to predict, even at this point, but the eventual winner has tended to be very much on the radar by this point.

    All figures from the relevant Wikipedia pages.
    Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited January 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...
    Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.

    The question is, what happens if you don't.
    The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.
    That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.
    That's not true, heading into Austria from Hungry / Slovenia you won't get very far without your id card / passport and the same is true between Austria and Germany although the Germans will just wave most Austrian cars through...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited January 2019
    rcs1000 said:


    Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.

    Are they going to count the votes more quickly than normal in California this time round ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:

    "Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."

    Any suggestions?
    I wrote a little bit of a post but changed my mind and deleted it related to this.

    At around the time of the referendum there was problems with a (I think) steel plant in South Wales. It was helpfully suggested somewhere the government could do more to help if we weren't in the EU. Clearly that was the only thing holding back the Tories from pouring investment into South Wales...

    In the age groups that heavily voted leave they have just seen decline from our time in the EU, from heavy industrial zones to just poor towns hanging on (this is partially from the article)

    There is an immigration theme that plays well even in places here without many immigrants but I suspect much of that feeling is related to the economic decline and maybe the assumption the immigrants are now taking what they had (or their fair share)

    Lots of different things but probably some kind of improvement, economic mainly. Maybe the return of heavy industry for some and government investment in some other kind of work for others. I don't actually see it happening directly from Brexit but then that is why I voted remain.
    After the 'Crash' and especially during the Coalition years the argument was that we were all in this together and that austerity was the way out of it. However, that austerity seemed to apply to those at the bottom of the heap, while there were some clear examples of those much higher up not, apparently at least, doing their share of the 'heavy lifting'. Top rates of tax, for example, weren't raised while wages at the bottom were frozen. Yes, I know tax-free pay was increased a little, but while that makes some difference, it doesn't make much.

    The old song:
    It's the rich wot make the trouble
    It's the poor wot get the blame
    It's the same whole world over
    Ain't it all a bleeding shame?'
    Applied and the Left was supposed to be trying to shift some of that blame.

    If those at the top thought they were going to get shafted by leaving the EU, well, then here's a heave from me, was, I think, the 'thinking'.

    And yes, I voted Remain. And would do so again.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Chris said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.

    https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952

    Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?

    I suppose it's an occupational hazard for each foreign minister to think that her/his particular nation has some special "role" on the world stage.

    But perhaps the British Foreign Secretary, just at this particular time, might be forgiven for concentrating on more pressing practical issues.
    I think you will find he is concentrating on pressing practical issues, namely his leadership campaign. And going to foreign countries to utter ridiculously banal and pompous bollox about the UKs imagined world role goes down a storm with the Tory faithful.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:
    Not especially so (this is from 2016 but things won't have changed that much):

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/study-finds-uk-is-second-most-powerful-country-in-the-world/
    "Only 2 global powers". I give you China, which demolishes his argument all on its own. Also arguably Russia and France.
    In many ways, China is a superpower, and in other ways it is developing as one. However, there is an argument that as an embryonic superpower, it's still treading warily in establishing a global footprint - how often do they send ships into the Atlantic? As such, it is arguably not yet a truly global power in a way that Britain, despite its smaller resources and economy, is.

    Now, that's not an argument that I'd push too far but there is some merit to it.
    How often do we send carrier groups into the Pacific?

    Oh. We don't have carrier groups yet.

    Is sending a couple of small ships to the Pacific really "projecting power".
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    He's clearly concealing a hard on in the right photo What an utter fucking clown.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936



    After the 'Crash' and especially during the Coalition years the argument was that we were all in this together and that austerity was the way out of it. However, that austerity seemed to apply to those at the bottom of the heap, while there were some clear examples of those much higher up not, apparently at least, doing their share of the 'heavy lifting'. Top rates of tax, for example, weren't raised while wages at the bottom were frozen. Yes, I know tax-free pay was increased a little, but while that makes some difference, it doesn't make much.

    The old song:
    It's the rich wot make the trouble
    It's the poor wot get the blame
    It's the same whole world over
    Ain't it all a bleeding shame?'
    Applied and the Left was supposed to be trying to shift some of that blame.

    If those at the top thought they were going to get shafted by leaving the EU, well, then here's a heave from me, was, I think, the 'thinking'.

    And yes, I voted Remain. And would do so again.

    The tax fee allowance was raised more than just a little, wasn't it?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406





    After the 'Crash' and especially during the Coalition years the argument was that we were all in this together and that austerity was the way out of it. However, that austerity seemed to apply to those at the bottom of the heap, while there were some clear examples of those much higher up not, apparently at least, doing their share of the 'heavy lifting'. Top rates of tax, for example, weren't raised while wages at the bottom were frozen. Yes, I know tax-free pay was increased a little, but while that makes some difference, it doesn't make much.

    The old song:
    It's the rich wot make the trouble
    It's the poor wot get the blame
    It's the same whole world over
    Ain't it all a bleeding shame?'
    Applied and the Left was supposed to be trying to shift some of that blame.

    If those at the top thought they were going to get shafted by leaving the EU, well, then here's a heave from me, was, I think, the 'thinking'.

    And yes, I voted Remain. And would do so again.

    Austerity seemed to hit those councils who got Government grants due to lower council tax takes. Areas up north with lots of houses in council band a and B did badly those down south with houses in bands D and above did rather better...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:



    Being an asylum seeker isn't an international passport to travel wherever you want.

    It isn't not that, either.

    As a signatory to the UNHCR conventions on the rights of refugees, we agree to hear all applications of refugee status, on a case by case basis. If the person is from an unsafe country, there's a reasonable expectation it would be granted, because returning people to unsafe countries is a Bad Thing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:


    What do they think we are in breach of?

    Who, France?

    We're asking the French government for a favour here, and for obvious reasons they are currently in no mood to be offering the UK government a lifeline on anything.
    You said "France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy". Perhaps "breach" was the wrong word - but what special treatment are they complaining about?
    Well, the EU's been negotiating a common immigration and asylum policy for a while, but without the UK. Now we're suddenly are interested in making demands of that European immigration policy, we shouldn't be surprised when we're hit with a fat non merci.
    The French seem no keener on accepting asylum seekers who cross from Italy than we are to accept those who cross the Channel.
    Quite right too. Asylum shouldn't be some "A La Carte" menu of claimants going where they desire; but rather the first 'safe country' set menu.
    Utter bilge. This "first safe country" arse-pull rightwingers cling to is another absurd fiction. Not only do the UNHCR conventions say nothing about "first safe countries", it should be painfully obvious what would have happened if we'd tried to apply this terrible idea to Syria.

    (Snip)
    Then let's look at Syria. The nearest 'safe' countries can be seen as places like Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan (and it's great to be able to say that Lebanon can be classed as a 'safe' country). You might want to look at the table to see where the refugees have mostly gone:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_the_Syrian_Civil_War

    Many countries neighbouring Syria have taken a massive amount of the refugees, and have suffered economically (and in some cases socially) from it. Cameron was right in trying to help these countries deal with this burden.

    Where the "arse-pull rightwingers"do deserve criticism is for their whinging and screeching when we tried to help those countries out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:



    Yes, and indeed Biden, like all the others, is said to be pondering a run, but at the moment he wins on name recognition because he was Obama's Vice-President for eight years. It is like the next Tory leader polls show that people have seen Boris and JRM on the telly.

    Look back four years at how many GOP runners made the primaries, and the Democrats are not even at that stage yet. The chances are the eventual candidate will be someone we'd not recognise. You could have named your own price for Trump.

    True, but his run was exceptional in many ways.

    For 2016: Clinton lead in every poll with her name in throughout early 2015 and was presumptive nominee in the media.
    For 2012: Romney was a widely discussed candidate and led many polls in early 2011 (interestingly so did Trump in a couple of polls, though he didn't in early 2015).
    For 2008: McCain was in the top 2 or 3 of most polls in Jan 2007 and lead some.
    For 2008: Obama likewise was second in most polls and a widely discussed candidate in the press.

    This time the nationwide leader for the Dem polls is Biden - maybe he should be favourite over Harris/O'Rourke (definitely over the latter, imho). The other thing which jumps out at me is that Harris is polling surprisingly low in many polls, basically the same as Warren (who perhaps deserves more credit than she's getting, though I'm not convinced since name recognition surely makes Harris' high single figures more impressive).

    Primaries certainly aren't easy to predict, even at this point, but the eventual winner has tended to be very much on the radar by this point.

    All figures from the relevant Wikipedia pages.
    Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.
    If Kamala wins the Dems and Nikki Haley, one of the favourite alternatives to Trump, wins the Republicans then we could be certain that the next POTUS is of Indian ancestry.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    The more interesting question is what they do once they realise that leaving the EU doesn't change their lot one iota.
  • Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.

    Are they going to count the votes more quickly than normal in California this time round ?
    Well even three months earlier than usual, it it is still after Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina; and the same day as Beto's home state of Texas.

    Could be an interesting one if Warren, Biden and/or Sanders do well in those earlier states.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:



    Being an asylum seeker isn't an international passport to travel wherever you want.

    It isn't not that, either.

    As a signatory to the UNHCR conventions on the rights of refugees, we agree to hear all applications of refugee status, on a case by case basis. If the person is from an unsafe country, there's a reasonable expectation it would be granted, because returning people to unsafe countries is a Bad Thing.
    That's the point. The asylum seekers who are the subject of this discussion are not coming from an unsafe country.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    viewcode said:
    It's just you and that woman at the fireplace showroom he was fucking on the side.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,737
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...
    Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.

    The question is, what happens if you don't.
    The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.
    That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.
    That's not true, heading into Austria from Hungry / Slovenia you won't get very far without your id card / passport and the same is true between Austria and Germany although the Germans will just wave most Austrian cars through...
    I’ve recently driven across the Hungary/Austria border and there was no sign of any checks.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    Chris said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting "thinking" by ambitious ministers on Britain's global post Brexit ole. The latest from Hunt is that the UK will be the invisible chain linking the world's liberal democracies. After Chris Williamson's global moral leadership got laughed out of court perhaps invisible is more realistic, albeit a synonym for non-existent.

    https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1080416493211389952

    Nitpick question: is Singapore actually a liberal democracy?

    I suppose it's an occupational hazard for each foreign minister to think that her/his particular nation has some special "role" on the world stage.

    But perhaps the British Foreign Secretary, just at this particular time, might be forgiven for concentrating on more pressing practical issues.
    I think you will find he is concentrating on pressing practical issues, namely his leadership campaign. And going to foreign countries to utter ridiculously banal and pompous bollox about the UKs imagined world role goes down a storm with the Tory faithful.
    I stand corrected. And perhaps Singapore is remote enough that a sympathetic appearance there won't alienate any significant faction of the Tory party. Perhaps ...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    It is not clear what the people of the valleys expect to improve as a result of Brexit, indeed as the article says:

    "Speaking to people in the Welsh Valleys, there is a keen local awareness that communities have been in precipitous economic decline for some time. The European Union is not responsible for this decline, but despite the modest injection of EU subsidies in recent years, it hasn’t reversed it."

    Any suggestions?
    During the Greece crisis, a woman dressed in blue was accused (with some justification) of bullying and destroying the economic base of a smaller nation speaking a different language.

    The Valleys went "Uh-huh. Seen that before..."
    Ah, so Brexit will reopen the mines, steel works and textile factories of the valleys, will it?

    Personally it looks to me that funding priorities will be even less for these communities, as the country re-organises around Brexit. South Wales will be at the back of that queue, particularly with a Tory Brexit.

    Brexit will not reopen the mines, steel works and textile factories of the Valleys. But those things are long gone: the days when Wales (or any other part of the UK) could sustain such extraordinarily dangerous industries routinely are in the past. You are correct when you say that Brexit will f**k up the Valleys, but they have been f**ked for some years now and have learned to cope with it. Economic arguments only go so far with people with not much money. They may change their mind in five-ten years, but right now it's too late.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Paddy Power has settled the May to stay till 2019 markets you'll be pleased to hear.
    Though I sometimes wonder if I'm the only person that's bet on this sort of market with them rather than Pogba to score a hattrick this season/ Liverpool to win the title accumulators.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:



    Being an asylum seeker isn't an international passport to travel wherever you want.

    It isn't not that, either.

    As a signatory to the UNHCR conventions on the rights of refugees, we agree to hear all applications of refugee status, on a case by case basis. If the person is from an unsafe country, there's a reasonable expectation it would be granted, because returning people to unsafe countries is a Bad Thing.
    That's the point. The asylum seekers who are the subject of this discussion are not coming from an unsafe country.
    But my point is that's irrelevant. We have two options, we either grant them refugee status or ask France to. And France isn't going to do that.

    The focus needs to be on finding and shutting down the human trafficking rings responsible, which is very much in both our interests. Before the bodies start piling up in the Channel.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Dura_Ace said:

    He's clearly concealing a hard on in the right photo What an utter fucking clown.
    And not in the left photo??
  • Pulpstar said:

    Paddy Power has settled the May to stay till 2019 markets you'll be pleased to hear.
    Though I sometimes wonder if I'm the only person that's bet on this sort of market with them rather than Pogba to score a hattrick this season/ Liverpool to win the title accumulators.

    I think I had £20 tbf, so you've done me a favour.

    I think so far I am +£150 on May's exit date, something like that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Chris, are you honestly criticising him for showing support for the troops? :p
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Mr. Chris, are you honestly criticising him for showing support for the troops? :p

    Really very firm support.

    Rock hard, in fact.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kinabalu said:

    How can one argue someone is a genuine asylum seeker if they have already passed through a "free" country such as France, or any other EU country? Once they pass through another country that could offer them asylum they become a de facto economic migrant

    A genuine asylum seeker is somebody fleeing war or persecution. They achieve that on arrival in the 1st safe place they reach. Any further travel becomes a matter of choice not necessity. Your argument is therefore correct.
    Here is the issue though. Since we cannot send refugees back to their unsafe country of origin to face persecution, we have only two choices: grant them refugee status or ask France to do it. France is refusing, on the (imho reasonable) grounds that the UK has persistently derogated from a common European refugee policy, thus there's no legal basis for the UK to make that demand.

    So we're hoisted by our own petard. We offer them refugee status because there are no other options.
    What do they think we are in breach of?
    The EU’s desire to place refugees in Germany into other countries
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,502
    OllyT said:

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    The more interesting question is what they do once they realise that leaving the EU doesn't change their lot one iota.
    Well, it won't be Tory. Plaid Cymru, perhaps, there are some small signs now and again. Look at Caerphilly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...
    Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.

    The question is, what happens if you don't.
    The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.
    That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.
    That's not true, heading into Austria from Hungry / Slovenia you won't get very far without your id card / passport and the same is true between Austria and Germany although the Germans will just wave most Austrian cars through...
    The Schengen free movement area only applies to citizens of member states, and to those holding valid Schengen visas. Countries are not obliged to permit entry of other nationals.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited January 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Kamala Harris is doing better in the odds than the polls (sorry, ugly turn of phrase), because California is so early in the primary season next year. If we assume she wins her home state, she's extremely unlikely to be any worse than second after March 3rd, and may very well be first.

    Are they going to count the votes more quickly than normal in California this time round ?
    Well even three months earlier than usual, it it is still after Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina; and the same day as Beto's home state of Texas.

    Could be an interesting one if Warren, Biden and/or Sanders do well in those earlier states.
    My book is

    ++Klobuchar
    ++ Ojeda/Avenatti (Unlikely)
    + Warren (Backed and laid)
    + Biden (All about whether he runs or not)
    + Brown
    + Pence/Kasich (Potus)
    - The field (Harris, Sanders etc)

    + Trump (To run)

    + Democrats/- GOP (To win)
  • What the gammons are really getting upset over today is..

    https://twitter.com/GreggsOfficial/status/1080403000722710528

    Expecting a statement from Javid/Hunt/Fireplace Gav any minute now.
  • rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...
    Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.

    The question is, what happens if you don't.
    The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.
    That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.
    Oh, I know. But we're meant to be leaving, so we won't count. Which leaves Ireland ex-Schengen. How many Syrians are trying to paddle there?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    OllyT said:

    eek said:

    An interesting short read for anyone who still doesn't understand why 52% voted to leave (yes I know everyone here knows but unherd is getting more readable)..

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1080448725598777346

    The more interesting question is what they do once they realise that leaving the EU doesn't change their lot one iota.
    Well, it won't be Tory. Plaid Cymru, perhaps, there are some small signs now and again. Look at Caerphilly.
    The erosion of class based voting does make the Tory vote increasingly based on WWC nationalists, albeit generally in less deprived areas than the Welsh Valleys. Personally, I cannot see that as compatible with Hunt's vision of Singapore in the Atlantic. Indeed, it looks like foundations of sand to me unless Brexit delivers impossible prosperity to these places.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    Dura_Ace said:

    viewcode said:
    It's just you and that woman at the fireplace showroom he was fucking on the side.
    That has to be bad on her back. Marble fireplaces are very uncomfortable.

    In the remake of The Thomas Crown Affair, there's a love scene between Brosnan and Rene Russo on a marble staircase. Throughout the entire thing I was thinking: "Damn, that's really going to mess up her vertebrae".

    Pause.

    I'll get me coat... (
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited January 2019
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    The difference between what is an economic migrant and a refugee seems to be far more complex than I would have thought it was. Surely someone sat anywhere in Europe has already successfully fled the persecution they were fleeing...
    Yes, you are "required" to seek asylum in the first safe country.

    The question is, what happens if you don't.
    The EU is borderless so the asylum seekers should be free to seek asylum in any EU country as soon as they reach the safety of the EU.
    That's not true. The Schengen zone is "borderless" in that you don't need to undergo passport checks once you are in it, but the EU is certainly not.
    That's not true, heading into Austria from Hungry / Slovenia you won't get very far without your id card / passport and the same is true between Austria and Germany although the Germans will just wave most Austrian cars through...
    The Schengen free movement area only applies to citizens of member states, and to those holding valid Schengen visas. Countries are not obliged to permit entry of other nationals.
    Which was my point that even when you are within Schengen you may not be able to travel passport / Id card free as rcs1000 claims is possible.
This discussion has been closed.