politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to
Comments
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I completely agree it's the play she ought to make.RochdalePioneers said:
What's more, an election utterly destroys the Labour Party. Her position will be simple - if you want to deliver Brexit you have to vote Conservative. If Jeremy tries to copy and also pledge to back Brexit but his unicorn cake fantasy version then he will not only alienate half the Labour vote but half the Labour activists as well. Alternatively he can pledge no Brexit as most MPs and members want and youllyoullysee Labour slaughtered.RochdalePioneers said:May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.
When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.
She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.
She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.
Why can't she see this?
She gains nothing from a second referendum except the possibility we vote (narrowly) to remain, which probably means the Tories getting wiped out when there _is_ a GE (which would probably happen in 2019 anyway, if the ERG broke away as a result).
If she goes to the country and says voting Conservative is the only way to secure Brexit she in one fell swoop gains a majority, is able to push through her deal, and gives the Conservatives another five years in power under the FTPA, by which time magic grandpa will be too old to go on...
...or at least, this is the plan IF she wins.
The trouble is there's no guarantee she will win. The Tories are already fighting like ferrets in a sack over Europe and that will only get worse during a GE campaign. Divided parties don't win elections. She threw away an enormous lead in the polls at the last GE and Corbyn has proven himself to be an effective campaigner. GE 2017 was supposed to be about Europe but it ended up being about anything but. I doubt she would be able to control the narrative of a 2019 snap election and going to the country asking "who governs?" doesn't always yield the desired result...0 -
A. Past experience. B. She just promised not to lead into a GE. C. Calling an election now in the middle of all this would be th height of irresponsibility. The Q is why Corbyn can't see this (although probably he can, hence his tapdancing about).RochdalePioneers said:
What's more, an election utterly destroys the Labour Party. Her position will be simple - if you want to deliver Brexit you have to vote Conservative. If Jeremy tries to copy and also pledge to back Brexit but his unicorn cake fantasy version then he will not only alienate half the Labour vote but half the Labour activists as well. Alternatively he can pledge no Brexit as most MPs and members want and youllyoullysee Labour slaughtered.RochdalePioneers said:May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.
When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.
She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.
She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.
Why can't she see this?
And D. It would require A50 extension or revocation, which May doesn't want since she knows it makes No Brexit more likely.
Edit/ plus, if it DID become a surrogate for a second vote, she might lose.0 -
They don't believe that is the choice (Nor do the renegotiator crowd). When will they?MarqueeMark said:
The screeching of Lord Adonis demonstrates the penny is starting to drop.IanB2 said:
True. And the chance of her getting it through, in the end, are higher than people are currently estimating (although the penny is starting to drop). It's a shame there isn't a betting opportunity, since Betfair closed the "deal agreed in 2018" market and there isn't an equivalent for 2019. I wouldn't want to tie myself to 29 March since there are clearly various scenarios where we could want or be forced to delay.HYUFD said:
BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.AmpfieldAndy said:
You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting memberAmpfieldAndy said:Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.
With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.
As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.
Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc
As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support
TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.
Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
It's May's Deal or No Deal. Choose, Remainers.....0 -
I genuinely hope Labour do well there come the next GE.SandyRentool said:Off topic: I'm off to a public meeting with John McDonnell this afternoon. Should be interesting.
Also interesting is the fact that he is spending the day in Shipley constituency - clearly on our target list.0 -
I think the Tories will be reasonably united if a GE comes about in the near future; Soubry, Grieves, Boles, Wollaston, Allen and a few others will not be standing as Tory candidates.williamglenn said:
It would split the party. Neither Johnson nor Soubry would campaign for that manifesto.RochdalePioneers said:
What's more, an election utterly destroys the Labour Party. Her position will be simple - if you want to deliver Brexit you have to vote Conservative. If Jeremy tries to copy and also pledge to back Brexit but his unicorn cake fantasy version then he will not only alienate half the Labour vote but half the Labour activists as well. Alternatively he can pledge no Brexit as most MPs and members want and youllyoullysee Labour slaughtered.RochdalePioneers said:May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.
When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.
She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.
She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.
Why can't she see this?0 -
The moment for Corbyn to call a GE is after May's deal has been defeated and she's been forced to pivot to another position.0
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Mrs May does have one lever (or threat) with the DUP.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no dealAmpfieldAndy said:
No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.HYUFD said:
The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to MarchAmpfieldAndy said:
Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.HYUFD said:Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
That is, she can threaten A Northern Ireland referendum on the backstop. The referendum would likely be passed 66:33, with the nationalist community almost entirely in favor.
The DUP cannot allow that to happen.0 -
She can't get her party to back that.RochdalePioneers said:
What's more, an election utterly destroys the Labour Party. Her position will be simple - if you want to deliver Brexit you have to vote Conservative. If Jeremy tries to copy and also pledge to back Brexit but his unicorn cake fantasy version then he will not only alienate half the Labour vote but half the Labour activists as well. Alternatively he can pledge no Brexit as most MPs and members want and youllyoullysee Labour slaughtered.RochdalePioneers said:May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.
When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.
She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.
She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.
Why can't she see this?0 -
If you thought the EU referendum was a bad-tempered affair, can you imagine what that referendum would be like? It would be treated as a proxy for reunification - at least by the unionists.rcs1000 said:
Mrs May does have one lever (or threat) with the DUP.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no dealAmpfieldAndy said:
No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.HYUFD said:
The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to MarchAmpfieldAndy said:
Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.HYUFD said:Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
That is, she can threaten A Northern Ireland referendum on the backstop. The referendum would likely be passed 66:33, with the nationalist community almost entirely in favor.
The DUP cannot allow that to happen.0 -
The backstop isn’t a simple NI-affair anymore, so an NI-only referendum on it is a non-starter.rcs1000 said:
Mrs May does have one lever (or threat) with the DUP.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no dealAmpfieldAndy said:
No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.HYUFD said:
The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to MarchAmpfieldAndy said:
Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.HYUFD said:Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
That is, she can threaten A Northern Ireland referendum on the backstop. The referendum would likely be passed 66:33, with the nationalist community almost entirely in favor.
The DUP cannot allow that to happen.0 -
And if we can have a referendum on the backstop why not a referendum on the whole deal?tlg86 said:
If you thought the EU referendum was a bad-tempered affair, can you imagine what that referendum would be like? It would be treated as a proxy for reunification - at least by the unionists.rcs1000 said:
Mrs May does have one lever (or threat) with the DUP.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no dealAmpfieldAndy said:
No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.HYUFD said:
The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to MarchAmpfieldAndy said:
Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.HYUFD said:Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
That is, she can threaten A Northern Ireland referendum on the backstop. The referendum would likely be passed 66:33, with the nationalist community almost entirely in favor.
The DUP cannot allow that to happen.0 -
Oh, it's worse than that. The polls suggest a substantial minority of unionists - the ones who voted to stay in the EU, I suspect - back the backstop.tlg86 said:
If you thought the EU referendum was a bad-tempered affair, can you imagine what that referendum would be like? It would be treated as a proxy for reunification - at least by the unionists.
For the DUP to lose a vote such as this would be catastrophic for them.0 -
It would also honour the Belfast Agreement which enshrines 'no change of status without consent' (something the EU ignores as it conjures up 'the spirit' of the Belfast Agreement, since it cant use the actual text...)rcs1000 said:
Mrs May does have one lever (or threat) with the DUP.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no dealAmpfieldAndy said:
No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.HYUFD said:
The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to MarchAmpfieldAndy said:
Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.HYUFD said:Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
That is, she can threaten A Northern Ireland referendum on the backstop. The referendum would likely be passed 66:33, with the nationalist community almost entirely in favor.
The DUP cannot allow that to happen.0 -
If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?0
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They are no worse off with a border poll than the backstoprcs1000 said:
Mrs May does have one lever (or threat) with the DUP.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no dealAmpfieldAndy said:
No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.HYUFD said:
The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to MarchAmpfieldAndy said:
Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.HYUFD said:Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
That is, she can threaten A Northern Ireland referendum on the backstop. The referendum would likely be passed 66:33, with the nationalist community almost entirely in favor.
The DUP cannot allow that to happen.0 -
Really? How many Westminster MPs will they get if they lose a border poll?AmpfieldAndy said:
They are no worse off with a border poll than the backstoprcs1000 said:
Mrs May does have one lever (or threat) with the DUP.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no dealAmpfieldAndy said:
No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.HYUFD said:
The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to MarchAmpfieldAndy said:
Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.HYUFD said:Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
That is, she can threaten A Northern Ireland referendum on the backstop. The referendum would likely be passed 66:33, with the nationalist community almost entirely in favor.
The DUP cannot allow that to happen.0 -
Yes there needs to be another full Act of Parliament.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
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It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
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Trump, Corbyn, and now Adonis. It seems to be contagious.CarlottaVance said:Lets hope Adonis never gets near government again:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/10756630491791810560 -
Good job none of our esteemed Lords or Commoners like to pontificate and grandstand then isn't it.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
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Perhaps because more nutters would get elected.RochdalePioneers said:
If shes won seats across the North why would she care about ERG nutters?williamglenn said:
It would split the party. Neither Johnson nor Soubry would campaign for that manifesto.RochdalePioneers said:
What's more, an election utterly destroys the Labour Party. Her position will be simple - if you want to deliver Brexit you have to vote Conservative. If Jeremy tries to copy and also pledge to back Brexit but his unicorn cake fantasy version then he will not only alienate half the Labour vote but half the Labour activists as well. Alternatively he can pledge no Brexit as most MPs and members want and youllyoullysee Labour slaughtered.RochdalePioneers said:May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.
When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.
She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.
She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.
Why can't she see this?0 -
Also kinda patronising to refer to her as "Corbyn's wife" before even committing her name to print.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Daily Mail asks Corbyn's missus a question then complains when she answers?CarlottaVance said:0 -
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?0 -
He can't rely on the DUP not to fuck him in the VNOC/VONC.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?0 -
Looks sound enough but there are four reasons he has not followed this path:BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
i) The DUP could renege. Unlikely I'd have thought - but possible.
ii) Lacks authority with his backbenchers to make the abstention 'big enough'
iii) Loses the membership/weakens their poll rating as they've become the midwife of a Tory Brexit
iv) Fancies the Tories owning hard Brexit...0 -
Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?0
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And his support base amongst the Labour Party membership would be outraged if he did that kind of deal with the Tories.Dura_Ace said:
He can't rely on the DUP not to fuck him in the VNOC/VONC.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?0 -
I assume it's a bit more than '1 drone'.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
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I agree. What he wants to do is prise the DUP from the government so a VonC can pass. Letting the MV pass is the most obvious way of doing that.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?0 -
Yesterday the leader of the SNP in parliament raised a point of order with the Speaker to ask if it was possible to have a Vote of No Confidence in the opposition.0
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Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
0 -
i) Yes agreed, possible, but unlikely.Pulpstar said:
Looks sound enough but there are four reasons he has not followed this path:BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
i) The DUP could renege. Unlikely I'd have thought - but possible.
ii) Lacks authority with his backbenchers to make the abstention 'big enough'
iii) Loses the membership/weakens their poll rating as they've become the midwife of a Tory Brexit
iv) Fancies the Tories owning hard Brexit...
ii) If he sold it to them as a plan to avoid the catastrophe of a cliff-edge no deal Brexit, with the added bonus of the likelihood of forcing a GE, I would think he could get enough support for that.
iii) Make plain to the membership and the country that they are only voting for it in order to avoid the catastrophe of a cliff-edge no deal Brexit, with the added bonus for the membership of forcing a GE.
iv) Yes he might fancy the Tories owning a hard Brexit, but that is unlikely to benefit Labour before the next scheduled GE in 2022.
0 -
She can't concede that the details of her deal need public ratificationrcs1000 said:
Mrs May does have one lever (or threat) with the DUP.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no dealAmpfieldAndy said:
No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.HYUFD said:
The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to MarchAmpfieldAndy said:
Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.HYUFD said:Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
That is, she can threaten A Northern Ireland referendum on the backstop. The referendum would likely be passed 66:33, with the nationalist community almost entirely in favor.
The DUP cannot allow that to happen.0 -
Suggested here on Monday evening...David_Evershed said:Yesterday the leader of the SNP in parliament raised a point of order with the Speaker to ask if it was possible to have a Vote of No Confidence in the opposition.
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2137492/#Comment_21374920 -
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.0 -
Good news, and bad news....
Robert Caro is publishing a book next spring.
But it's not the fifth volume of the LBJ biography.
https://www.apnews.com/ce8aa0cee2ce45b9a3e3f00f78e4a9d3
“Why am I publishing these random recollections toward a memoir while I’m still working on the last volume of the Johnson biography, when I haven’t finished it, while I’m still — at the age of 83 — several years from finishing it?” he writes. “The answer is, I’m afraid, quite obvious, and if I forget it for a few days, I am frequently reminded of it, by journalists who, in writing about me and my hopes of finishing, often express their doubts of that happening in a sarcastic phrase: ‘Do the math.’...0 -
Well May has said over and over again to Labour MP's that the only way to be sure of avoiding a no deal cliff-edge Brexit is to support her WA, so she cannot complain if they do so. Neither can she can complain if Labour call for a VONC and her agreement with the DUP is so weak that they refuse to support her.DavidL said:
I agree. What he wants to do is prise the DUP from the government so a VonC can pass. Letting the MV pass is the most obvious way of doing that.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
The reality seems to be that May does not really want Labour MP's to support her WA, because it would probably lead to a GE and an extension to Article 50.0 -
On iv: If May steers us to no deal exit she loses a chunk of her party and a punishment GE surely followsBudG said:
i) Yes agreed, possible, but unlikely.Pulpstar said:
Looks sound enough but there are four reasons he has not followed this path:BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
i) The DUP could renege. Unlikely I'd have thought - but possible.
ii) Lacks authority with his backbenchers to make the abstention 'big enough'
iii) Loses the membership/weakens their poll rating as they've become the midwife of a Tory Brexit
iv) Fancies the Tories owning hard Brexit...
ii) If he sold it to them as a plan to avoid the catastrophe of a cliff-edge no deal Brexit, with the added bonus of the likelihood of forcing a GE, I would think he could get enough support for that.
iii) Make plain to the membership and the country that they are only voting for it in order to avoid the catastrophe of a cliff-edge no deal Brexit, with the added bonus for the membership of forcing a GE.
iv) Yes he might fancy the Tories owning a hard Brexit, but that is unlikely to benefit Labour before the next scheduled GE in 2022.0 -
Spotting them at night is quite tough.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Though I agree - they should be outfitting a squad of attack drone flyer with IR sensors at every major airport. Probably take about 12 months to sort out the protocols and train their operators, though.0 -
Presumably they aren't doing that as they want to know who these people are. I notice that they are telling the public to dial 999 if they have any information on who's doing it, which is interesting.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
0 -
Well I am a Labour Pary member and I certainly would not be outraged, I would say it was smart politics and that the ends justified the means. I think the vast majority of Labour voters would appreciate the irony of Labour stopping Brexit in it's tracks by supporting the PM's WA. And if the DUP did not support a VONC then Corbyn still has the means to block it by not supporting the necessary subsequent Act of Parliament that needs to be passed.anothernick said:
And his support base amongst the Labour Party membership would be outraged if he did that kind of deal with the Tories.Dura_Ace said:
He can't rely on the DUP not to fuck him in the VNOC/VONC.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?0 -
Phalanx CIWS on the M23 exit for the airport.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.0 -
That was pretty much our joke in the office. Go full Defence Shield. Maximum prejudice.Dura_Ace said:
Phalanx CIWS on the M23 exit for the airport.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.0 -
Eh? If Parliament agrees the WA, it's done.BudG said:
Well I am a Labour Pary member and I certainly would not be outraged, I would say it was smart politics and that the ends justified the means. I think the vast majority of Labour voters would appreciate the irony of Labour stopping Brexit in it's tracks by supporting the PM's WA.anothernick said:
And his support base amongst the Labour Party membership would be outraged if he did that kind of deal with the Tories.Dura_Ace said:
He can't rely on the DUP not to fuck him in the VNOC/VONC.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?0 -
Hopefully some very tight regulation is to follow. Every drone should be registered, and an unlimited fine for those flying a drone without registration. Stupid things.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
0 -
Drones need to have their own unique electronic identifier built in.RobD said:
Hopefully some very tight regulation is to follow. Every drone should be registered, and an unlimited fine for those flying a drone without registration. Stupid things.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
0 -
A guided missile, perhaps?Dura_Ace said:
Phalanx CIWS on the M23 exit for the airport.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.
0 -
If they miss, I'll be surprised.RobD said:
A guided missile, perhaps?Dura_Ace said:
Phalanx CIWS on the M23 exit for the airport.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.0 -
What is Phalanx CIWS ?Dura_Ace said:
Phalanx CIWS on the M23 exit for the airport.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.0 -
Not a bird of prey. They aren't that tough either.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
0 -
A gatling cannon - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWSDavid_Evershed said:
What is Phalanx CIWS ?Dura_Ace said:
Phalanx CIWS on the M23 exit for the airport.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.0 -
I read it. He maintains that there is an existing structure with registered/preapproved suppliers and random testing, and that this structure would cope very well in IRE/NI. He has a point but it's a very German solution: it only works if everybody obeys the rules and gets certified. It neglects malevolent traders (who don't want to) and small business (who can't afford to). Given the historical problems with the border and the new quirk that it's now a EU/nonEU border, I think this is naive.CarlottaVance said:Thread on 'Is there a Customs Need for the Backstop?':
https://twitter.com/DerrickBerthel1/status/1075439083650990081
However I suspect a solution like this will have to be implemented because it's quick and cheap. But I assume you've heard the saying: "Quick, cheap, good: pick two of the three"... 0 -
Voters like strong leaders. By a 2022 election people will have calmed down about the WTO Deal disruption.IanB2 said:
On iv: If May steers us to no deal exit she loses a chunk of her party and a punishment GE surely followsBudG said:
i) Yes agreed, possible, but unlikely.Pulpstar said:
Looks sound enough but there are four reasons he has not followed this path:BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
i) The DUP could renege. Unlikely I'd have thought - but possible.
ii) Lacks authority with his backbenchers to make the abstention 'big enough'
iii) Loses the membership/weakens their poll rating as they've become the midwife of a Tory Brexit
iv) Fancies the Tories owning hard Brexit...
ii) If he sold it to them as a plan to avoid the catastrophe of a cliff-edge no deal Brexit, with the added bonus of the likelihood of forcing a GE, I would think he could get enough support for that.
iii) Make plain to the membership and the country that they are only voting for it in order to avoid the catastrophe of a cliff-edge no deal Brexit, with the added bonus for the membership of forcing a GE.
iv) Yes he might fancy the Tories owning a hard Brexit, but that is unlikely to benefit Labour before the next scheduled GE in 2022.0 -
You could force that for UK sales, but a large chunk come direct from China.David_Evershed said:Drones need to have their own unique electronic identifier built in.
0 -
BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
Not according to earlier posters in this thread.Donny43 said:
Eh? If Parliament agrees the WA, it's done.BudG said:
Well I am a Labour Pary member and I certainly would not be outraged, I would say it was smart politics and that the ends justified the means. I think the vast majority of Labour voters would appreciate the irony of Labour stopping Brexit in it's tracks by supporting the PM's WA.anothernick said:
And his support base amongst the Labour Party membership would be outraged if he did that kind of deal with the Tories.Dura_Ace said:
He can't rely on the DUP not to fuck him in the VNOC/VONC.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?0 -
As my first Air Warfare Instructor told me, "there's a reason we don't call them hittiles."Donny43 said:
If they miss, I'll be surprised.RobD said:
A guided missile, perhaps?Dura_Ace said:
Phalanx CIWS on the M23 exit for the airport.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.0 -
Guided missile is a misnomer?Dura_Ace said:
As my first Air Warfare Instructor told me, "there's a reason we don't call them hittiles."Donny43 said:
If they miss, I'll be surprised.RobD said:
A guided missile, perhaps?Dura_Ace said:
Phalanx CIWS on the M23 exit for the airport.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.
0 -
Assuming the WA is passed by Parliament, there's a boatload of legislation to get through but any serious disruption to it will be seen as playing silly buggers.BudG said:
Not according to earlier posters in this thread.Donny43 said:
Eh? If Parliament agrees the WA, it's done.BudG said:
Well I am a Labour Pary member and I certainly would not be outraged, I would say it was smart politics and that the ends justified the means. I think the vast majority of Labour voters would appreciate the irony of Labour stopping Brexit in it's tracks by supporting the PM's WA.anothernick said:
And his support base amongst the Labour Party membership would be outraged if he did that kind of deal with the Tories.Dura_Ace said:
He can't rely on the DUP not to fuck him in the VNOC/VONC.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
And bear in mind that the outgoing PM picks the date of a general election triggered by no confidence.0 -
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1075719138620923904
Is there a book yet on which day the vote will be pulled?0 -
No one seems to mention the Lords.Donny43 said:
Assuming the WA is passed by Parliament, there's a boatload of legislation to get through but any serious disruption to it will be seen as playing silly buggers.BudG said:
Not according to earlier posters in this thread.Donny43 said:
Eh? If Parliament agrees the WA, it's done.BudG said:
Well I am a Labour Pary member and I certainly would not be outraged, I would say it was smart politics and that the ends justified the means. I think the vast majority of Labour voters would appreciate the irony of Labour stopping Brexit in it's tracks by supporting the PM's WA.anothernick said:
And his support base amongst the Labour Party membership would be outraged if he did that kind of deal with the Tories.Dura_Ace said:
He can't rely on the DUP not to fuck him in the VNOC/VONC.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
And bear in mind that the outgoing PM picks the date of a general election triggered by no confidence.
Are they going to pass May's WA deal?0 -
Is chutzpah a Russian word?williamglenn said:0 -
Not helpful Vlad.williamglenn said:0 -
They don't need to.rottenborough said:No one seems to mention the Lords.
Are they going to pass May's WA deal?
13 Parliamentary approval of the outcome of negotiations with the EU
(1) The withdrawal agreement may be ratified only if—
[...]
(b) the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship have been approved by a resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown,
(c) a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship has been tabled in the House of Lords by a Minister of the Crown and—
(i) the House of Lords has debated the motion, or
(ii) the House of Lords has not concluded a debate on the motion before the end of the period of five Lords sitting days beginning with the first Lords sitting day after the day on which the House of Commons passes the resolution mentioned in paragraph (b)0 -
-
0
-
I don't think the Act gave them a meaningful vote on it, just a discussion, but I may be wrong.rottenborough said:
No one seems to mention the Lords.Donny43 said:
Assuming the WA is passed by Parliament, there's a boatload of legislation to get through but any serious disruption to it will be seen as playing silly buggers.BudG said:
Not according to earlier posters in this thread.Donny43 said:
Eh? If Parliament agrees the WA, it's done.BudG said:
Well I am a Labour Pary member and I certainly would not be outraged, I would say it was smart politics and that the ends justified the means. I think the vast majority of Labour voters would appreciate the irony of Labour stopping Brexit in it's tracks by supporting the PM's WA.anothernick said:
And his support base amongst the Labour Party membership would be outraged if he did that kind of deal with the Tories.Dura_Ace said:
He can't rely on the DUP not to fuck him in the VNOC/VONC.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
And bear in mind that the outgoing PM picks the date of a general election triggered by no confidence.
Are they going to pass May's WA deal?0 -
The correct pronounciation is not in fact with a c, or even a 'ch' but really rolling a combined h and r sound about before the 'u'...rottenborough said:
Is chutzpah a Russian word?williamglenn said:0 -
Now the WA isn't coming back to the Commons until the Wednesday 9th Jan and the vote won't be on the Monday - just as I suggested. We are now looking at Tuesday or Wednesday.0
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Brexit #2 Vote Not in Kremlin Budget...?williamglenn said:0 -
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Well, Yiddish was the language of the Pale:rottenborough said:
Is chutzpah a Russian word?williamglenn said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_of_Settlement0 -
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Are Democracy and referendum ?rottenborough said:
Is chutzpah a Russian word?williamglenn said:0 -
No election can happen here now before 14th February.0
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FWIW, there was a version of the Rapier GAM used in the Falklands which was called that, as it wasn't equipped with a proximity fuse.Dura_Ace said:
As my first Air Warfare Instructor told me, "there's a reason we don't call them hittiles."Donny43 said:
If they miss, I'll be surprised.RobD said:
A guided missile, perhaps?Dura_Ace said:
Phalanx CIWS on the M23 exit for the airport.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I can assure you it's not that simple.Pulpstar said:
Yes, they are not that sturdy - the police could just send their own drones in the air to knock it out the sky. Or use a trained bird of prey. This stuff really isn't tough.Gallowgate said:Kinda amazing that 1 drone can shut down Gatwick for what, 12 hours?
Drone technology has come on a long way. They are bigger, strong, can fly further and higher, and faster. They are now capable of disrupting flights before it is possible to intervene.
I don't know the specifics at Gatwick but all UK airports are now spending millions of pounds to try and keep up.
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Voters like competent leaders. May is the definition of incompetent.David_Evershed said:
Voters like strong leaders. By a 2022 election people will have calmed down about the WTO Deal disruption.IanB2 said:
On iv: If May steers us to no deal exit she loses a chunk of her party and a punishment GE surely followsBudG said:
i) Yes agreed, possible, but unlikely.Pulpstar said:
Looks sound enough but there are four reasons he has not followed this path:BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
i) The DUP could renege. Unlikely I'd have thought - but possible.
ii) Lacks authority with his backbenchers to make the abstention 'big enough'
iii) Loses the membership/weakens their poll rating as they've become the midwife of a Tory Brexit
iv) Fancies the Tories owning hard Brexit...
ii) If he sold it to them as a plan to avoid the catastrophe of a cliff-edge no deal Brexit, with the added bonus of the likelihood of forcing a GE, I would think he could get enough support for that.
iii) Make plain to the membership and the country that they are only voting for it in order to avoid the catastrophe of a cliff-edge no deal Brexit, with the added bonus for the membership of forcing a GE.
iv) Yes he might fancy the Tories owning a hard Brexit, but that is unlikely to benefit Labour before the next scheduled GE in 2022.0 -
BBC is reporting five days are set aside for the debate.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1075719138620923904
Is there a book yet on which day the vote will be pulled?0 -
Just brilliant. What we all want.IanB2 said:
BBC is reporting five days are set aside for the debate.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1075719138620923904
Is there a book yet on which day the vote will be pulled?0 -
It's a 'new debate' then, not a continuation of the old one. Means the Grieve amendment does not apply I think - though the Gov't may confirm that it does.IanB2 said:
BBC is reporting five days are set aside for the debate.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1075719138620923904
Is there a book yet on which day the vote will be pulled?0 -
It's still the required MV to the WA so I think Grieve still applies.Pulpstar said:
It's a 'new debate' then, not a continuation of the old one. Means the Grieve amendment does not apply I think - though the Gov't may confirm that it does.IanB2 said:
BBC is reporting five days are set aside for the debate.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1075719138620923904
Is there a book yet on which day the vote will be pulled?0 -
So why Gatwick? Why not Heathrow, or both?0
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They’re screwed either way. Being more scared or les screwed is rather irrelevant.williamglenn said:
Really? How many Westminster MPs will they get if they lose a border poll?AmpfieldAndy said:
They are no worse off with a border poll than the backstoprcs1000 said:
Mrs May does have one lever (or threat) with the DUP.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are signs of life on Mars too - doesn’t mean there is any. Of course the DUP are going to play May for what they can. They’d be fools not to and they are much better negotiators than she is. Doesn’t mean they are going to soften their approach though. As the EU have said any trade deal will only be for GB not NI they would be signing up to a United Ireland if they supported May. How likely is that ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
There are signs the DUP are softening their approach, the voters just want to move on, and the meaningful vote almost certainly will point to the future. It could be deal or remain in the end but it will not be no dealAmpfieldAndy said:
No point in sticking with her deal once it’s defeated. After 21st Jan the only way to stop a hard Brexit is A50 extension or revocation. May is implacably opposed to both and Parliament gets to decide anyway.HYUFD said:
The parliamentary party can do nothing about it and May will stick by her Deal to MarchAmpfieldAndy said:
Once her deal is defeated, I doubt she’d want to stay and I doubt the parliamentary party would want her to. They might admire her grit and determination but she is an uninspiring control freak who is a serial loser.HYUFD said:Given May is now secure for a year having won the no confidence vote by Tory MPs and is very stubborn and Brexit is due to occur in March then clearly the UK should leave the EU first whether Deal or No Deal unless we have EUref2 leading to Remain
That is, she can threaten A Northern Ireland referendum on the backstop. The referendum would likely be passed 66:33, with the nationalist community almost entirely in favor.
The DUP cannot allow that to happen.0 -
Lots of countryside around Gatwick to do the recovery and recharging without being spotted. This has got to be a deliberate protest; whoever it was ran it throughout the night and today is the busiest travelling day for the Xmas getawaytlg86 said:So why Gatwick? Why not Heathrow, or both?
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Alternatively, both sides believe that the DUP wouldn't play ball with Labour on the VoNC, so May is happy for Labour to support her and Labour won't do so in the hope of forcing a GE.BudG said:
Well May has said over and over again to Labour MP's that the only way to be sure of avoiding a no deal cliff-edge Brexit is to support her WA, so she cannot complain if they do so. Neither can she can complain if Labour call for a VONC and her agreement with the DUP is so weak that they refuse to support her.DavidL said:
I agree. What he wants to do is prise the DUP from the government so a VonC can pass. Letting the MV pass is the most obvious way of doing that.BudG said:
OK. Corbyn's priority in all of this is to get a GE.OblitusSumMe said:
It requires an Act of Parliament to be brought into effect - the whole lengthy process of Commons and Lords debates and procedures. Many more votes to come.BudG said:If the MV on the withdrawal agreement is passed next month, are there any other motions or laws that subsequently need to be passed on this side of the channel, in order for the withdrawal agreement to come into effect?
Suppose he either supports the WA or allows enough of his MP's to support it in a free vote, to allow it to pass.
Is it then not likely that the DUP will then support an immediate VONC in the government under the FTPA which would bring down the government and lead to a GE before the Act of Parliament can be voted upon and come into effect?
Am I missing something here, because it seems an obvious way to get the GE that Corbyn says he wants?
The reality seems to be that May does not really want Labour MP's to support her WA, because it would probably lead to a GE and an extension to Article 50.
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That particular model is equipped with geofencing, it will not fly in prohibited areas, it is of course possible to hack the firmware to overide the geofence, but this is not easy for idiots to do.Pulpstar said:
Registration is pointless, the good guys will register and behave legally, the criminals will not register.
It is very easy to program this model to fly a pre arranged course, it will then fly autonomously, the operator can sit in a car somewhere, turn off the transmitter, and the quadcopter will come back home when it is done. Very difficult to catch the operator.0 -
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May got a deal because she meekly conceded every point the EU demanded. 42% is pretty meaningless when you lose a 20% lead in the polls and your majority in a snap election you call and are saved from losing office by a Scottishrevival you have nothing to do with. Still, facts are not your strong suit are they.HYUFD said:
BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.AmpfieldAndy said:
You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting memberAmpfieldAndy said:Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.
With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.
As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.
Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc
As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support
TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.
Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 20170 -
Hebrew. A close Russian idiom is в ус не дуть which has no meaningful direct translation in English but conveys a similar meaning of not giving a fuck.rottenborough said:
Is chutzpah a Russian word?williamglenn said:0 -
Because it would not end up as a Brexit election.As she herself found ot in June 2017 , no PM can control the basis on which people cast their votes. Heath had a similar experience in February 1974. People are sick to death of Brexit and will be very receptive to other issues being raised.RochdalePioneers said:
What's more, an election utterly destroys the Labour Party. Her position will be simple - if you want to deliver Brexit you have to vote Conservative. If Jeremy tries to copy and also pledge to back Brexit but his unicorn cake fantasy version then he will not only alienate half the Labour vote but half the Labour activists as well. Alternatively he can pledge no Brexit as most MPs and members want and youllyoullysee Labour slaughtered.RochdalePioneers said:May's deal is Brexit. For all it's faults as a deal we would leave the European Union - which is all that was on the ballot paper. If it doesn't satisfy the people who imagine that "European Union" means sonetsome else then tough.
When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.
She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.
She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.
Why can't she see this?0 -
Every day she doesn't resign is another £150 odd in the bank..Tissue_Price said:0 -
A little more conversation, a little less action.Gallowgate said:
Just brilliant. What we all want.IanB2 said:
BBC is reporting five days are set aside for the debate.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1075719138620923904
Is there a book yet on which day the vote will be pulled?0 -
Interest rates remain at 0.750
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Quite so - at the very least she won't want to resign today. Labour must be furious (see leak source!), though I note that Nick Brown gave evidence for her as a character witness.Pulpstar said:
Every day she doesn't resign is another £150 odd in the bank..Tissue_Price said:
But in a message sent to other Labour MPs on various WhatsApp groups this morning and leaked to The Times, Ms Onasanya hinted she would not quit, saying “this was not his end but rather the beginning of the next chapter” of her “story”, as it was with Jesus.0 -
😆 No shame whatsoever.Tissue_Price said:0 -
I am not convinced the PM would have a deal that right now still stands some chance of being the resolution if that person had instead been Leadsom, or Boris, or Davis....AmpfieldAndy said:
May got a deal because she meekly conceded every point the EU demanded. 42% is pretty meaningless when you lose a 20% lead in the polls and your majority in a snap election you call and are saved from losing office by a Scottishrevival you have nothing to do with. Still, facts are not your strong suit are they.HYUFD said:
BigG speaks sense on this unlike your fanaticism.AmpfieldAndy said:
You don’t speak for the Tory Party either. Like me, you don’t speak for anyone but yourself but that is what the comments are for isn’t it - expressing individual opinions. As such, your high and mighty tone is both misplaced and risible frankly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not talk for the conservative party as a whole. Indeed are you even a voting memberAmpfieldAndy said:Once May’s deal is defeated, she can’t possibly stay and no one in the Tory Party would want her to. She would face a proper VNOC from Labour then, which she’d probably win but she would then be the news rather than policy which would be a massive distraction.
With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.
As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.
Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc
As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support
TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.
Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 20170
