Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to leave the EU?
I rather like this betting market which asks which of the two events will happen first – Theresa May ceasing to be Prime Minister or the UK actually leaving the EU.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
(Though I agree with you overall.)
With Labour currently on the back foot after Corbyn’s mad moment yesterday, and idiotic attempt at a VNOC which made the Keystone Cops look competent, she’d after to make way. She won’t be missed.
As for Brexit, it might not happen at all. The chances of no deal or no Brexit must be about neck and neck.
As for the results, I demand a judge-led inquiry.
It’s VONC man!
The problem with this market is there is no clear, rational route through to any particular outcome so we are left to bet on which six impossible things will happen before Brexit.
It does make sense but I cannot confirm how authentic the story is
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1075663049179181056
If on the other hand, she doesn't land her deal, the options divide into no deal Brexit or (more likely, given Parliament) routes leading to no (or significantly delayed) Brexit; in this latter case I'd say she's likely to resign and will be deposed if she does not. In the former case no-one will want to take over until the potential chaos of exit is over.
So this bet is a close surrogate for the chances of Brexit happening in March, the difference being a scenario with a very short A50 extension for some practical reason, less the very small chance of May going under some bus over the Xmas break.
The odds of Brexit on 29 March are indeed slightly longer than on Brexit before the end of May, hence relative to each other at least, the pricing looks accurate.
"South Carolina GOP could scrap 2020 primary to protect Trump"
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/south-carolina-gop-could-scrap-2020-primary-to-protect-trump
He's basically saying 'I value an impartialcivil service....except I dont'
There are very few people who are more ignorant and arrogant than Michael Gove with regard to education.
But Lord Adonis is one of them.
Furthermore, if the deal fails the DUP will not support a vnoc
As far as the future outcome we cannot look past the meaningful vote and the order the amendments are taken and whether any will have majority support
TM will stand down in due course but right now she is an asset to the party and has a great amount of support in the country, compared to any of the alternatives
In this case both would seem to apply.
May I ask what evidence you have for this?
I would be backing Leave the EU. Surely May has more of a chance of cobbling together the number to pass the deal with various sweeteners for different parties, or we leave under no deal, or we extend a50 and still leave before May leaves.
No-one else wants to be leader whilst this is going on - if Corbyn really wanted to be leader to negotiate Brexit then he would have VONC the government. As soon as no general election is possible then he would have to back second referendum, and the Leave supporting Labour vote would be under pressure - personally I would see this as more desirable, than the remain side, as they have somewhere to go i.e. green / Lib Dem / nationalists. Unfortunately as we know Corbyn doesn’t like to change his personal views and this confirms he is a leaver. He wants leave but wants someone else to do it, and he can then sweep in afterwards. May has the same problem with remain voting Tories, and that is why it is important for her to get a practical deal through, to minimise economic disruption.
The default outcome is that we leave the EU first, but there’s an awful lot that might happen in the next 100 days.
The meaningful vote is meaningless. May’s deal won’t pass with the backstop and the backstop isn’t going to change. She pulled the vote for a reason.
Once her deal is defeated, thoughts will turn to the inevitable leadership contest and the next general election. Whatever is left of her shattered authority and and power will ebb away and she’ll be gone. She’s been a total disaster and a worse Tory PM than either Eden or Heath which is really plumbing the depths.
"Adonis and his sister were placed in care because their father was working long hours and was not able to cope with sole parental responsibilities. Adonis lived in a council children's home until the age of 11, when he was awarded a local education authority grant to attend Kingham Hill School, a boarding school in Oxfordshire.
Adonis gained admittance to Keble College, Oxford, where he graduated with a first-class Bachelor of Arts degree in Modern History in 1984. He continued his education at Oxford and subsequently gained a doctorate with a thesis on the British aristocracy of the late 19th century at Christ Church, before being appointed to a Fellowship in History and Politics at Nuffield College."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Adonis,_Baron_Adonis
The strategic problem for the Tories is that dissatisfaction is more prevalent and enduring in politics than is gratitude; parties rarely benefit from thrusting major change upon us. And that the people they are driving away (generalising, business and many of the educated middle classes, particularly in the South East) are more reliable voters than those they are gaining in Mansfield and the like.
I still say he can't think. Having a doctorate is no evidence of that (I should know...)
What is especially bizarre incidentally is that he poses as an expert on education despite never having worked in it and having been privately educated. That's how he came into politics in the first place, as a policy wonk. His big idea as I recall were city academies, most of which were failures.
‘We are becoming a joke’: Germans turn on Deutsche Bahn
Cancelled trains and lengthy delays have turned a once-trusted railway system into a source of national shame
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/20/trains-on-time-germans-deutsche-bahn-railway
If both lose the Deal will be the only alternative to No Deal which is why I think it could well be passed by Brexit Day with May leading it through. If she goes it will likely after Brexit in whatever form, not before
May has got a Deal which is more than most would have and got 42% in 2017
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1075296182254100480
Has a go at Jill Rutter and the IoG:
This response, by the reputable @instituteforgov which I once directed, shows how debased the civil service & the state have become by Brexit
He's demonstrably unfit for office ever again.
So a clever bet might be to back BOTH Brexit before ex-May at 2.24 AND a GE before Brexit at 2.38? Both bets are better than evens so you win in every circumstance except where May goes before Brexit AND Brexit is before a GE.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections
It's May's Deal or No Deal. Choose, Remainers.....
Put it this way, the average receptionist in a comprehensive would have known far more about state schooling than him, because they spend a lot of time dealing with children (in my experience). A cover supervisor is an expert, because of the nature of the role - indeed, probably they see more of education than I do even as somebody with temporary school-wide SLT responsibilities.
But he posed as an expert, and got into the Lords, with disastrous results. He never really seemed to learn the limits of his own ignorance. There was a very interesting list which unfortunately I can't track down, of what happened to his experimental schools. All but one were in a worse mess than when he found them - unbelievably. And then he went to Transport...
I'll get my coat. Have a good morning.
She didn't do anything impressive or original. She signed whatever Barnier put in front of her. Barnier wrote and got a deal, May is nothing more than a glorified secretary signing his deal on behalf of the UK. Anyone else could have done that too.
https://twitter.com/DerrickBerthel1/status/1075439083650990081
The tragedy of education is we each have an opinion, and often imagine this amounts to expertise, based entirely on our own schooling. It does not extend to other fields. No-one says, I've had a bad cold so here is how we should use Crispr to edit virus DNA. But ask about the history syllabus or synthetic phonics and ministers and journalists can debate all day.
Exactly right. It is in everyone else's interests that TM is in charge until it is clear which way the wind is ultimately blowing over Brexit, after which it should be pretty much open season for the responsibility shifters, who are large in number, to have their turn.
There is only a tiny faction of fanatics within Parliament who want no deal, and they have little leverage and have just destroyed any credibility they might once have had.
If May wanted to get to 'no deal' by outwitting Parliament, then it's possible, I agree. But there is no evidence she would do that. She would lose her job, and a slice of her party; it would bring down the government and damage the country. May isn't going to want that as her legacy; her duty to serve her party and the country are what drives her along.
The betting opportunity will be in betting against 'no deal' if we reach the point when it starts to look quite likely.
https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1075448896791474176
When May's deal is defeated I think her final play will be to go over the heads of MPs. They are refuaireto deliver my Brexit that you the people want. So give me the mandate to execute it.
She needs a people's vote because MPs continue to deny her / the will of the people. Whether that's a GenrraG Election or a referendum I am unclear. Either way remain will be an option and leave with May will be an option. And let's be honest about this - we cannot hold a referendum wuixqui enough to satisfy Article 50. But we can an election. In February.
She has to call an election. It will save her. And her party.
Why can't she see this?
Also interesting is the fact that he is spending the day in Shipley constituency - clearly on our target list.