politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll of CON Councillors finds Javid leading over Joh
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll of CON Councillors finds Javid leading over Johnson as first choice for TMay’s successor
You can see fuller details from the poll in this Survation video.
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Europhiles least worst hope is a mildly europhile Labour candidate who wins big after a campaign focused on everything except Brexit. Peterbourgh can never be a good result for Remainers but the killing field could be levelled.
But the bottom line is Theresea May got lucky today. Her strategy is to burn time and until Peterborough is held the Corbyn inner circle will be happy to help her do it.
I expect Javid would win, but the mmbers would have had a chance to consider - and reject - Boris. That would be a good safety valve for the party.
Of course, Javid might be a dud on the hustings.......
So for example don't be surprised if by next year Labour STILL haven't elected a woman leader, it is actually not possible for Labour to do so until a vacancy appears.
Glad I'm green.
He will tackle grotesque abuses like grooming gangs, as should anyone decent. The idea that 'grooming gangs' is an "explicitly racist and Islamophobic trope" is absurd.
But the Muslim minority community is not the same as gangs or FGM any more than the Catholic community are all paedophiles. In fact the paedophilia within the Catholic Church was more institutional than the abuses here are.
Regardless of race, religion or any other creed abuses are wrong and should be called out.
Not everyone has the vision to empower those closest to their perceived enemy to assist in trying to wipe them out.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2013/apr/17/margaret-thatcher-team-mr-whippy
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1075539100260802560
Labour had a choice between
(i) an old white guy, (ii) a woman, (ii) a BAME candidate
It was the same old, same old.
The WTO Deal (so called No Deal) is now the only route to enable such a parallel negotiation.
I have pledged not to discuss the issue with you here to the moderators, and will respect that. It is a pity that you do not honour it.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the same happen in Wales, the left takes power which then results in a woman taking the top job next time.
Corbyn was the first Labour leader to introduce a gender balanced cabinet. With the left taking power things have thankfully moved in the right direction on these things.
Although in fairness I think Blair did do some early work in this department as well.
The Labour party in South Wales belongs to the Late Cretaceous period.
Remember dinosaurs like Owen Smith, who managed to patronise Leanne Wood and Nicola Sturgeon.
And remember what he wanted to do to Theresa May -- he wanted to "smash her back in her high heels"
Yeah .. yeah .. it's just banter. The Labour party in Wales is a long, long, long way from electing a female leader.
Also I know it is confusing but Labour just don't like occupation of Palestine, Jews are cool, it isn't like a Conservative with Muslims or the windrush generation type thing. In fact the head of momentum is a Jewish guy, probably one of the key people in the Corbyn project.
Brexit is like a high flying trapeze artist performing risky stunts. It could be dangerous, or it could be spectacular.
If a trapeze artist goes to perform and uses no other safety equipment but there is a safety net underneath that already exists, then does the trapeze artist have no safety equipment? Or is the safety net that is pre-existing a piece of safety equipment?
Yes the trapeze artist might be safer being strapped into a harness, but if they think that would betray the whole reason they chose to perform a show and just rely upon what is there even if it is riskier, then that's not a no-safety decision.
The WTO is our safety net. It is a deal we already can rely upon. May's deal is like a harness. It keeps us safe but also keeps us bound and restricted.
The party does have some work to do bringing through some new talent in the assembly and that is something the new leader will hopefully do. Quite frankly he would have been selected even if the other 2 candidates had been more manly, more white and older. He was selected because he was the Corbyn candidate. I'm sure they'll be wary of the fact they need to get women in leadership positions and that is what will help push them to do so.
The leader your opponents feared was the woman.
Antisemitism is a rampant sewer in today's Labour Party, and nothing gets done about it. Worst case scenario if an example makes the national media they get a six month suspension and a training course.
Note: a few comments on twitter is not proof of this.
Antisemitism is so rampant a sewer in Labour that is it around about Lib Dem levels and lower than in the Conservatives. Admittedly the latter should be a given rather than anything to brag about.
Page 6
Endorsed at least one anti semitic statement
Conservative 40%
Labour 32%
Lib Dems 30%
Citation provided.
You gloss over:
For two years, more than 4 in 5 British Jews have considered the Labour Party to be harbouring antisemites in its ranks. The level of criticism of the Labour Party stood out starkly against that levelled at other parties, however, over 40% of British Jews also consistently considered the UK Independence Party and the Green Party to be deficient in tackling antisemites in their ranks. Similarly, over 30% consistently criticised the Liberal Democrat Party and the Scottish National Party.
Although the number of British Jews criticising the Conservative Party’s handling of antisemitism rose in 2017, it was the only party to be considered to be doing enough by more than 80% of British Jews. The fact that only one of the country’s major political parties was in this category should be a cause for major concern about the health of British politics.
Page 19.
Jews have considered the Labour Party
to be harbouring antisemites in its
ranks. ...
Labour Party supporters are less likely
to be antisemitic than other voters, so
the cause of British Jews’
discontentment with the Labour Party
must be the way that it has very publicly
failed to robustly deal with the
antisemites in its ranks. This means that
the Labour Party has fallen out of step
with its core supporters, who are
generally less likely to hold antisemitic
beliefs.
The Momentum/Jez/Livingstone far-left tendency tolerate antisemitism and have taken over control of the party. The moderate centre-left aren't antisemitic but aren't in charge of the party. They dilute the antisemitism of the far left.
https://merrionstreet.ie/MerrionStreet/en/News-Room/Releases/No_Deal_Brexit_Contingency_Plan.pdf
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1075363567971508226
I wonder if it will end in ritual humiliation for May like his last two unicorns did.
Also as for your other bit the poster said 'Antisemitism is a rampant sewer in today's Labour Party', not that it is perception of some Jewish people that 'Antisemitism is a rampant sewer in today's Labour Party' Also I never claimed anything about perception just the amount of Antisemitism.
https://www.facebook.com/PeoplesMomentum/posts/767756453569744
And stop using the poll of voters as if it tells us anything about members. Holocaust Deniers as Council candidates, for pity's sake. Jeremy Corbyn posing for photo opps with "Jews cause all the wars in the world" types.
https://antisemitism.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Antisemitism-Barometer-2017.pdf
Page 33
2015 general election
Labour no anti semitic statements agreed with 68%
Page 48
2017 general election
Labour no anti semitic statements agreed with 68%
The incredible growth in anti semitic Labour voters is a whole 0 percent. Given he had been in charge about 2 years at this point that is in increase of 0 percent a year. Breaking it down that is 0 extra anti semites attracted each month and 0 extra anti semites a week and even taking it down to a day it is a whole 0 extra every single day. In fact going by those figures and estimating forward a whole 0 anti semites would come round to supporting Labour in just the time it took me to write this post.
A truly shocking reflection on what Corbyn has done to Labour.
The less gentlemanly way would be a blockade of Northern Ireland's ports.
I really doubt the UK wants to go down either of these roads, so when the time comes we will agree to the annexation of NI by the EU.
You are about as convincing as a flat earther at this point, as Carlotta would say, citation required.
As opposed to your study which measures a different thing from what we're talking about, something Factcheck sites have warned about cherry-picking.
Meanwhile, your approach to the terror Corybnism is causing among British Jews is "well, the Jews must be wrong". An approach the radical left wouldn't countenance if directed at another minority group.
Under what possible grounds could the UK be litigated against for violating the EU's regimes via Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland will not be part of the EU.
The integrity of the EU is their problem not ours. They're trying to make it ours and we are meekly going along out of a craven attitude.
The EU can maintain their integrity in a plethora of ways, it just doesn't want to.
It could do so at the border.
It could reach a trade deal making the border moot.
It could rely on self reporting and inspections away from the border.
Your statement about 'Antisemitism is a rampant sewer in today's Labour Party' completely contradicts the facts we have available which show anti semitism hasn't moved at all in the Labour party.
The party has somehow had anti semitism become a rampant sewer in the party whilst the percentage of anti semitism among its voters hasn't moved at all... incredible...
Almost like you shouting about random anecdotes has much less meaning than the hard data.
But obviously we can't settle this. Why don't we ask a cross party Parliamentary group what they think in about 2016 when they vast majority of members are already joined up.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmhaff/136/136.pdf
page 46
120. Despite significant press and public attention on the Labour Party, and a number of revelations regarding inappropriate social media content, there exists no reliable, empirical evidence to support the notion that there is a higher
prevalence of antisemitic attitudes within the Labour Party than any other political party.
Let me guess you don't care about hard data or cross party parliamentary groups... you are still sticking with right wing anecdotes!
It is who needs experts all over again...
You really should read all of the information in the links you post - not just selected bits to support a narrow point.
https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1075580531901906945
I mean sure there will be the odd exception but by and large MPs and members are voters.
They are a small fraction of the voters.
'Antisemitism is a rampant sewer in today's Labour Party'
The bit you have just quoted says 'Labour Party supporters are less likely to be antisemitic than other voters'
These things are a contradiction of each other.
The other bit you have quoted talks about Jewish perception/discontentment, as I pointed out I wasn't talking about perception but the existence of anti semitism, which all the hard evidence we have suggests is not more prevalent in Labour but actually less so.
I never said they were the only people who voted for the party. I would have thought it would have been rather obvious to most people they are not.
In October 2016 when that report was published I probably agree that there was no reliable empirical evidence of antisemitism being higher within Labour membership than other parties. It hadn't been systematically gathered. There was no "reliable empirical evidence" that the Trump campaign was in cahoots with the Kremlin either.
It now has. A backlog of thousands of complaints. Holocaust Deniers selected to represent the party. A special election called to the disciplinary committee, and won by a landslide on the manifesto "let's go soft on the Jew-haters". A Leader who lies and lies and lies again when challenged on his trip to honour Jew-murdering terror groups, and who poses in front of the Hezbollah flag.
Anyway, I'm fairly sure I'm arguing with a parody account, do you also run Corbynsuperfan on Twitter, by any chance?
The Labour Party had 564,443 members, an increase from 543,645 in December 2016
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05125#fullreport
Our membership has barely changed since the report these people you agree there is no proof of greater anti semitism are pretty much exactly the same group you are now accusing!
TBH If you think some likes on a facebook page means more than statistics compiled by professionals and a cross parliamentary report then I am not sure what to say...
I tend to prefer something more substantial than anecdotal evidence.
TBH if you go on twitter and see the kinds of things that some people complain about I wouldn't be surprised if there were thousands of complaints (although I'm a little wary on that figure not being from Labour) I suspect it could also be another one of those anecdotes your fond off.
To give you an example Marc Wadsworth, who despite what some excitable right wingers say wasn't kicked out for anti semitism, in fact we had the video link put up on PB and plenty of non Corbyn supporters watched it and saw nothing anti semitic.
Well now every time somebody pops up in a picture with Marc Wadsworth some people on twitter seem to think that is itself an anti semitic act. It gets to the point where if you take your picture with enough people they have picked out as bad (despite a lack of proof) you become a bad person, who then makes other people anti semites by having a picture or being with them... Admittedly that is one of the slightly unhinged groups on twitter but they are the main source I have seen for "thousands of complaints"
We've selected plenty of bad candidates for various reasons and then unselected them if proof of wrongdoing came to light, could argue the system should be tighter at local level but the leadership is big on local parties having democratic choice. It is a trade off but the local parties should choose we just need a better system in place from local parties to check candidates out.
_________________________________
A special election called to the disciplinary committee, and won by a landslide on the manifesto "let's go soft on the Jew-haters".
___________________________________
I don't even quite understand this bit... can we drop the Daily Mail hyperbole so I can figure out exactly what you are criticising....
Is it the GE17 manifesto that is let's go soft on the Jew-haters?!
Just to note this is going off into right wing anecdote territory again... ahh lets just ignore your stats and the cross party report he stood next to a flag man! that is clear as day anti semitism...
Imagine for a second the argument was the other way around and you provided statistics from a professional polling company and a cross party parliamentary report and all I had to prove my point was a facebook page with some likes on it, him standing next to a flag and various other random anecdotes!
You would just laugh and ask me to provide some actual proof which is what I have to ask of you TBH.
TBH Corbyn superfan seems to slip out of character into himself sometimes and talk about allying with the far right, not really my cup of tea. Also wouldn't you be the parody account with your complete ignoring of the substantial evidence I have provided and countering with a facebook page, a man next to a flag... it just sounds like a parody when I write it out!
The line that I said and was disagreed with was 'Antisemitism is so rampant a sewer in Labour that is it around about Lib Dem levels and lower than in the Conservatives.'
By the same logic surely your finger pointing at Labour without any reflection on what the evidence says about the Conservatives is part of their problem.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/senator-amy-klobuchar-trump-2020-kavanaugh-presidential-run
"One in five women in England and Wales have experienced some type of sexual assault since the age of 16, according to official analysis of violent crime figures.
The latest release of findings from the Crime Survey for England and Wales shows more than 510,000 women – an estimated 3.1% of all women aged 16 to 59 – experienced some type of sexual assault in the past year."
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/08/sexual-assault-women-crime-survey-england-wales-ons-police-figures
"In England and Wales
– 9% of adults experienced psychological abuse during childhood.
– 7% suffered physical abuse in childhood
– 7% suffered sexual assault in childhood
– 8% witnessed domestic violence or abuse in the home during childhood"
https://napac.org.uk/key-facts-figures/
"Sexual assaults experienced since the age of 16
The year ending March 2017 Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) estimated that 12.1% of adults aged 16 to 59 have experienced sexual assault (including attempts) since the age of 16, equivalent to an estimated 4 million victims (Appendix Tables 1 and 2).
Indecent exposure or unwanted sexual touching (11.5% of adults aged 16 to 59, 3.8 million victims) was more common than rape or assault by penetration (including attempts) (3.4%, 1.1 million victims)."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/sexualoffencesinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2017#how-prevalent-are-sexual-assaults
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And many more other statistics. Sexual abuse is a massive problem, and the big-ticket, well-publicised cases, whether in the Muslim community, the various churches, the BBC, football, etc, etc, hide the fact that it's happening in *all* communities. And much of it will be unorganised: amongst friendship groups or families, not by external groups or strangers.
I can understand why people want to focus their concerns on one particular type of abuser; especially as the behaviour by authorities that allowed the abuse to continue and grow is common to other cases (e.g. the church).
But don't forget that abuse is far more common that those well-publicised cases, and the victims are not just girls, yet alone white girls.
If abuse, yet alone sexual abuse, is bad, then society has a real problem. And that is what too many of the Muslim paedophile-obsessives are ignoring.
I'd have thought she'd want the by election asap and will throw the kitchen sink at it.
If we do crash out of the EU that will be the reason why. And he'll have a lot to answer for.
It’s a sliding scale, not an absolute.
Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.
A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.
Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.
And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.
1) Oppositions gonna oppose
2) If you want them to do something other than oppose, you have to actually work with them; When TMay failed to get a majority a lot of people suggested she should be doing Brexit as a cross-party thing, but she decided she was going to lock them out and instead optimize everything for keeping her own party together instead. You could argue that if the whole thing goes to shit it's their fault for not sucking up the least bad option she gave them, but generally the voters will blame the government for things that happen when they're governing.
When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?
(And this goes for all PMs.)
Edit - also, there is a difference between 'silly' and 'stupid'.
I am sure that we will see a similar rushed procedure when Theresa is Defenestrated.
(Obviously he'd also beat Gove and Rees Mogg)