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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The gilded cage. How the DUP are using the new rules of the ga

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    They already squeaked in.
    Bubble and squeaked in?
  • Then May's Deal suits you.
    Sigh
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Anazina said:



    No, a very narrow majority of those who actually voted, voted to leave the EU. That was all.

    If they can't be arsed to vote, their opinion doesn't matter.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    John_M said:

    You mean Switzerland and the EEA countries, I presume. Please don't flail around with non sequiturs and accuse Leavers of illogic.

    If we were in the EEA I wouldn't have a problem with Freedom of Movement, though I wouldn't care about it either. If I were in Switzerland I wouldn't have a problem with it, because Switzerland is also outside the EU's treaty structures.

    However, if you're a citizen of an EU member state, you are going to be part of the drive to ever closer union. FoM is a benefit that also comes with a cost.
    Turgid syntax, muddled argument.

    There are ways of retaining FOM while leaving the EU, as you well know.

    Brexitism and logic make poor bedfellows.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Anazina said:

    About six minutes ago you were lamenting the labour barriers on the Anzac nations. Make your bloody mind up man!
    My mind is made up, man, and I'm being totally consistent.

    There's nothing wrong with the total level of immigration that we have. We should be loosening immigration controls on Australians, New Zealanders and Canadians as we tighten them on people from the 26 EU countries (excluding Ireland, for obvious reasons).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    I will go for your upgrade. My daughter regularly travels from Abergele/Rhyl to Bridgend and Llanelli for meetings and not only does she have to stay in a hotel overnight, she has chaotic delays and cancellations all via the new Wales government franchise
    Ah well, we all know my puns are definitely first class! :smiley:

    That sucks for your daughter. Would say, hope they sort it out but that won't happen any time soon.

    The problem is and always has been unfortunately that ultimately all railways in the UK point towards London. That's great in Scotland, where traffic basically flows to Edinburgh or Glasgow and then on. It's rubbish in Wales where there is actually no railway line from north to south - and never really has been (yes, in pencil you can trace a line Cardiff, Swansea, Carmarthen, Aberystwyth, Machynlleth, Pwllheli, Bangor, but it involved at least three changes).

    I don't see it ever being fixed, bluntly, given the logistics and economics. Much mocked though Ieuan Air was, it was probably the right idea for Wales.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Well, I suspect you may get the chance to vote for it again. :wink:
    And how many more times will we have to vote for it before it happens?
  • How is the collapse of Jaguar sales in China the fault of Brexit? Just curious......
    Of course it is not to do with Brexit
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Anazina said:

    No, a very narrow majority of those who actually voted, voted to leave the EU. That was all.
    What you don't realise Anazina, is that every single person who voted Leave voted for exactly the same sort of Leave as AmpfieldAndy wants. None of them voted for any other kind of Leave, not even those Cabinet Leavers who are busy promoting May's Deal.

    Nothing must get in the way of the One True Brexit!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287

    I think for a lot of Leavers FoM is fine so long as it doesn't involve foreigners.
    There was some brilliant polling on FOM. Even Leavers support it when asked:


    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/07/most-leave-voters-back-free-movement-you-just-have-explain-it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Ah yes, the Hammond labelling of all Brexit supporters as extremists. Funny how quick Remainers are to resort to insults. FOM was a big reason Leave won. There were riots in Brussels today about fears of more immigration. I don’t want riots in the UK. Ending FOM will suit me.

    Actually, he called JRM and his supporters extremists.

    I think the only thing we can criticise him for there is undue generosity.
  • Well, I suspect you may get the chance to vote for it again. :wink:
    A second referendum is certainly being pushed hard by those who never accepted the result of the first. Not democracy really is it. And we don’t know the question yet do we. Apart from that, great point.
  • IanB2 said:

    It's a fact that a lot of our trade with non-EU currently relies on the EU's own trade agreements and recognition of EU standards, etc, which we would lose on 1 April. It's not just a question of goods and services to and from the Eu.
    Not much of a short term problem for the consumer - the UK will recognise EC goods as in conformity with UK regulations for the time being at least.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited December 2018
    Finally a SPOTY winner that actually you know like has personality.
  • ydoethur said:

    Actually, he called JRM and his supporters extremists.

    I think the only thing we can criticise him for there is undue generosity.
    JRM is many things; extremist isn’t one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Finally a SPOTY winner that actually you know like has personality.

    The first since notorious boozer, whorer and pot smoker Beefy Botham?
  • Donny43 said:


    My mind is made up, man, and I'm being totally consistent.

    There's nothing wrong with the total level of immigration that we have. We should be loosening immigration controls on Australians, New Zealanders and Canadians as we tighten them on people from the 26 EU countries (excluding Ireland, for obvious reasons).

    No other Commonwealth countries due for some 'loosening'?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Finally a SPOTY winner that actually you know like has personality.

    Ah, SPOTY. The runner up from a sport where the team with the best car wins and the winner from a sport where the team with the best drugs wins.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Donny43 said:

    My mind is made up, man, and I'm being totally consistent.

    There's nothing wrong with the total level of immigration that we have. We should be loosening immigration controls on Australians, New Zealanders and Canadians as we tighten them on people from the 26 EU countries (excluding Ireland, for obvious reasons).
    Why? Better to relax it on all of them. I have superb employees from France, Spain and Italy. What on earth have you got against them, for crying out loud?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    No other Commonwealth countries due for some 'loosening'?
    It wasn't an exhaustive list.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    ydoethur said:

    Actually, he called JRM and his supporters extremists.

    I think the only thing we can criticise him for there is undue generosity.
    Which is what Patten said at lunchtime.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Donny43 said:

    My mind is made up, man, and I'm being totally consistent.

    There's nothing wrong with the total level of immigration that we have. We should be loosening immigration controls on Australians, New Zealanders and Canadians as we tighten them on people from the 26 EU countries (excluding Ireland, for obvious reasons).
    A in-law of mine emigrated to NZ about 10 years ago because they were unhappy about the high levels of immigrants in this country (yes, I know, but the irony was lost on them). Anyway they have moved back now to Scotland because... you guessed it, it turned out that 'NZ is letting in too many immigrants from the far east'!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    IanB2 said:

    Which is what Patten said at lunchtime.
    He always had a ChrisP mind.
  • ydoethur said:

    The first since notorious boozer, whorer and pot smoker Beefy Botham?
    No offence to likes of Andy Murray, but personality is not exactly what he displays when they are doing the day job.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Ah well, we all know my puns are definitely first class! :smiley:

    That sucks for your daughter. Would say, hope they sort it out but that won't happen any time soon.

    The problem is and always has been unfortunately that ultimately all railways in the UK point towards London. That's great in Scotland, where traffic basically flows to Edinburgh or Glasgow and then on. It's rubbish in Wales where there is actually no railway line from north to south - and never really has been (yes, in pencil you can trace a line Cardiff, Swansea, Carmarthen, Aberystwyth, Machynlleth, Pwllheli, Bangor, but it involved at least three changes).

    I don't see it ever being fixed, bluntly, given the logistics and economics. Much mocked though Ieuan Air was, it was probably the right idea for Wales.
    I agree but at least the new service promised by labour would be good, but do not trust labour or grayling with the railways, they are both hopeless

    Her route is either through Crewe or Wrexham
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Anazina said:

    Turgid syntax, muddled argument.

    There are ways of retaining FOM while leaving the EU, as you well know.

    Brexitism and logic make poor bedfellows.
    I have no issue with people who honestly and openly want a Federal Europe; I like williamglenn's position, it's sincerely held and passionately argued.

    However, that's not what I want, so it's goodbye to the indivisible Four Freedoms. Pity, but those are the rules. I can't be any clearer without using crayons. You can disagree with me, of course.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Donny43 said:

    It wasn't an exhaustive list.
    Given that those you included are all predominantly white, we all know what's driving your suggestion.
  • Donny43 said:

    It wasn't an exhaustive list.
    Something that those three countries have in common that I just can't quite put my finger on..
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244

    Is that why the new 15 year rail Wales franchise negotiated by labour is in chaos and disarray

    I doubt it given that Lee Waters has only been in post a couple of days now...

    But, still, I was a frequent traveller on the previous franchise (Arriva Trains Wales). It was, without doubt, the single worst train company I've ever travelled on. Not that our "local" train company, GWR, exactly cover themselves in glory; and there are very few operators I'd consider respectable. Chiltern, perhaps, and London Overground. London Midland were ok but I haven't travelled enough by their replacements to judge.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Anazina said:

    Why? Better to relax it on all of them. I have superb employees from France, Spain and Italy. What on earth have you got against them, for crying out loud?
    Because freedom of movement with the whole world is a policy for a population of 150 million.

    I have superb employees from Italy and Romania. I had superb employees from Australia and New Zealand. The latter had to go home because we couldn't get visas for them.

    Superb employees should be able to come and stay wherever they are from.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Given that those you included are all predominantly white, we all know what's driving your suggestion.
    Go on, spell it out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Something that those three countries have in common that I just can't quite put my finger on..
    He wants to Pak them in. But Jamaica success of immigration is difficult.

    I'll get my coat.

    Goodnight.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    What you don't realise Anazina, is that every single person who voted Leave voted for exactly the same sort of Leave as AmpfieldAndy wants. None of them voted for any other kind of Leave, not even those Cabinet Leavers who are busy promoting May's Deal.

    Nothing must get in the way of the One True Brexit!
    I stand corrected :blush:
  • A second referendum is certainly being pushed hard by those who never accepted the result of the first. Not democracy really is it. And we don’t know the question yet do we. Apart from that, great point.
    Brexiteers got greedy and they are now likely to see the irony of being responsible for the demise of their dream
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Something that those three countries have in common that I just can't quite put my finger on..
    They're all countries I've had experience of losing great employees from.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    John_M said:

    I have no issue with people who honestly and openly want a Federal Europe; I like williamglenn's position, it's sincerely held and passionately argued.

    However, that's not what I want, so it's goodbye to the indivisible Four Freedoms. Pity, but those are the rules. I can't be any clearer without using crayons. You can disagree with me, of course.

    Crayons are unnecessary.

    The illogicality of your position is crystal clear when written in normal ink.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045



    Articulate why you have such fears in a comprehensible manner rather than simply regurgitate Hammonds reincarnation of Project Fear.

    1 - Supply chains. These are embedded around the EU to take advantage of economies of scale and specialisation. For example, a single component at the Mini factory in Oxford can cross into and out of the UK several times before being installed. Without membership of the Single market (with its associated common regulations, underwriting, and standards-checking regime), what happens here? This is just one factory out of a huge number in the UK. Do they all start manufacturing in-house? How much disruption is caused and jobs lost?

    2 - Port delays. The delays at Dover and the tailbacks and disruption that would occur as soon as we leave without any deal which reflects a common recognition of standards and checks are well known. Unless we simply throw open the borders and check nothing (which won't help on the way out), the lorry parks in Kent will exist. (And if we throw open our borders and accept whatever comes in, unchecked and unregistered, what the hell did we 'take back control' of?). What is going to be tied up in the ports and the M20/M2 lorry parks?

    3 - Supply chains redux. We know that supermarkets don't keep extensive stocks - that's economic suicide. Even with them stockpiling where they can, the shelves could run out quickly if lorries aren't coming in regularly, and if they're in a big truck jam, they won't be coming in regularly. Panic buying can accompany this.

    4 - Supply chains redux again. Factories (which aren't getting their widgets- the ones they do something to - going to and fro regularly) are also going to have to get the widgets-for-incorporation stockpiled rather than delivered just-in-time. This will be an additional shock/disruption.

    5 - Medical and others - we import medicines quite a lot (again, economies of scale and specialisation). Medicines which have to hit certain regulations and standards. We can do emergency shipments (as if we're a third world country that's had a natural disaster), but that's not sustainable and fraught with issues. What happens in the medium term here?

    6 - The Irish border. Unless we accept a sort of de facto backstop where Northern Ireland accepts everything from the Republic whatever the standards and regulations that applies to it (and there will certainly be chancers around for this), there's a hard border and shit happens there.

    That's just off the top of my head.
  • Brexiteers got greedy and they are now likely to see the irony of being responsible for the demise of their dream
    What a fatuous comment. Brexiteers won the referendum. Nothing greedy about that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    I doubt it given that Lee Waters has only been in post a couple of days now...

    But, still, I was a frequent traveller on the previous franchise (Arriva Trains Wales). It was, without doubt, the single worst train company I've ever travelled on. Not that our "local" train company, GWR, exactly cover themselves in glory; and there are very few operators I'd consider respectable. Chiltern, perhaps, and London Overground. London Midland were ok but I haven't travelled enough by their replacements to judge.
    South West Trains used to be good but they lost their franchise to FirstGroup/MTR (South Western Railway) and it's all gone tits up since then. But I am sure FirstGroup offered more dosh, so that's all fine then :disappointed:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    Bad example, that's been dealt with:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46380463
    Can't believe I missed that. And that America didn't take the chance to screw us further like they had been threatening.
  • A German hate preacher has been allowed to live in Britain despite leading a banned Islamist group accused of inspiring 140 jihadists to join Isis and al-Qaeda.

    Brahim Belkaid was able to settle in Leicester almost five years ago after returning to Europe from Syria, where he is suspected of supporting terrorists.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-let-german-who-launched-140-jihadists-live-in-leicester-m68x2hf38
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Nah. Boris, is, as ever, full of it. I don't think you can have too much democracy.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Donny43 said:

    Because freedom of movement with the whole world is a policy for a population of 150 million.

    I have superb employees from Italy and Romania. I had superb employees from Australia and New Zealand. The latter had to go home because we couldn't get visas for them.

    Superb employees should be able to come and stay wherever they are from.
    Well we could easily accommodate a population of 150 million if we raise density levels to those of the Brexiteer utopia that is Singapore.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Donny43 said:

    Go on, spell it out.
    I don't need to - everyone knows.
  • I doubt it given that Lee Waters has only been in post a couple of days now...

    But, still, I was a frequent traveller on the previous franchise (Arriva Trains Wales). It was, without doubt, the single worst train company I've ever travelled on. Not that our "local" train company, GWR, exactly cover themselves in glory; and there are very few operators I'd consider respectable. Chiltern, perhaps, and London Overground. London Midland were ok but I haven't travelled enough by their replacements to judge.
    Labour have only just signed the new 15 year franchise and it makes Arriva/TFW look like the Orient Express

    I know, my daughter is a regular north - south Wales business traveller.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    I don't need to - everyone knows.
    Coward.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Foxy said:

    There was some brilliant polling on FOM. Even Leavers support it when asked:


    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/07/most-leave-voters-back-free-movement-you-just-have-explain-it
    Yes, I have noticed from tonight’s discussion that it certainly takes lots of explaining. Good night all. Leavers, do more homework!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Hammond wasn't calling all Brexiteers extremists, he was talking about the ERG. Completely unfair, of course.

    They're not extremists, they're just very, very stupid.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    'Final Say' - much better than People's Vote imo. :smile:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1074423071371657216
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    I don't need to - everyone knows.
    You didn't notice that the three countries I mentioned are less white than, for example, Bulgaria and Romania, did you?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    South West Trains used to be good but they lost their franchise to FirstGroup/MTR (South Western Railway) and it's all gone tits up since then. But I am sure FirstGroup offered more dosh, so that's all fine then :disappointed:
    Nationalise the lot. Franchising simply does not work.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited December 2018
    John_M said:

    Nah. Boris, is, as ever, full of it. I don't think you can have too much democracy.
    What does he mean "risks reopening old divisions"?

    The divisions seem as open as they ever were.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    Now granted in reality this has more to do with the rapid switch away from Diesel to Electricity but it's going to hit home

    https://twitter.com/RLong_Bailey/status/1074357371194040320
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Anazina said:

    Nationalise the lot. Franchising simply does not work.
    And make them just as good as Network Rail, which is already responsible for the vast majority of delays on the railways?
  • What a fatuous comment. Brexiteers won the referendum. Nothing greedy about that.
    You are in denial. The Country voted leave but not to trash the economy, business and the union

    The comment is far from fatuous, it is well on the way to happening
  • Alistair said:

    Can't believe I missed that. And that America didn't take the chance to screw us further like they had been threatening.
    The air traffic is a good example of why the most extreme of the extreme disaster situations won't occur under No Deal Brexit, as it would absolutely screw everybody, not just the UK.

    Those wanting to realistically warn about the dangers should be concentrating on the much more likely scenarios that because of increased checks etc, JIT approaches can't operate, thus more warehousing requires / slower rates of production and processing, resulting in higher cost to the consumer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Anazina said:

    Nationalise the lot. Franchising simply does not work.
    Totally agree.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    Donny43 said:

    My mind is made up, man, and I'm being totally consistent.

    There's nothing wrong with the total level of immigration that we have. We should be loosening immigration controls on Australians, New Zealanders and Canadians as we tighten them on people from the 26 EU countries (excluding Ireland, for obvious reasons).

    If the "obvious reason" for Ireland is that we used to be in a political union with them, it applies to the EU26 too.
  • Anazina said:

    Nationalise the lot. Franchising simply does not work.
    Not possible in Wales now. Labour have signed a new 15 year franchise with TFW
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited December 2018
    Donny43 said:

    You didn't notice that the three countries I mentioned are less white than, for example, Bulgaria and Romania, did you?
    Apparently the very existence of the Anglosphere makes us all racists. By and large, I've not hired many Indonesians, but I have hired a lot of Yanks, Canadians, Australians and New Zealanders. Of course, the fact that they all have ethnic minorities thrice our own percentage kind of spoils the whole Aryan master race thang, but this is the Internet, so racist something something something.
  • eek said:

    Now granted in reality this has more to do with the rapid switch away from Diesel to Electricity but it's going to hit home

    https://twitter.com/RLong_Bailey/status/1074357371194040320

    Also, in perspective...

    A total of 93,000 retail jobs have been lost in the past year amid a crunch on the High Street.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-6501825/Britains-High-Street-crisis-claims-93-000-jobs-year-chains-going-bust-store-closures.html
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    How is the collapse of Jaguar sales in China the fault of Brexit? Just curious......
    Everything negative is because of Brexit

    Everything positive is despite Brexit

    You should know the drill by now :-)

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sam Gyimah is suggesting that he knows what Number 10's current thinking is.

    1) Meaningful Vote. They expect to lose, hard.
    2) They agree a series of indicative votes, in conference with the other party leaders, to be put the house.
    3) If no winner emerges, least popular choices will be eliminated and the process repeated (an exhaustive ballot, essentially)
    4) All the party leaders (including the PM) will agree, beforehand, the the votes will be free votes, and the party's whips will agree to be bound by the result of the indicative votes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    The air traffic is a good example of why the most extreme of the extreme disaster situations won't occur under No Deal Brexit, as it would absolutely screw everybody, not just the UK.

    Those wanting to realistically warn about the dangers should be concentrating on the much more likely scenarios that because of increased checks etc, JIT approaches can't operate, thus more warehousing requires / slower rates of production and processing, resulting in higher cost to the consumer.
    That's a fair point, as are your examples. Personally I think there will be quite serious disruption at airports in the UK and in Europe, dnot due to grounded planes but because the changing processes will cause a lot of confusion and at most airports it only takes a very minor issue to escalate to serious delays.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Sam Gyimah is suggesting that he knows what Number 10's current thinking is.

    1) Meaningful Vote. They expect to lose, hard.
    2) They agree a series of indicative votes, in conference with the other party leaders, to be put the house.
    3) If no winner emerges, least popular choices will be eliminated and the process repeated (an exhaustive ballot, essentially)
    4) All the party leaders (including the PM) will agree, beforehand, the the votes will be free votes, and the party's whips will agree to be bound by the result of the indicative votes.

    Sounds too much like common sense to be plausible. What's in it for Labour?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    1 - Supply chains. These are embedded around the EU to take advantage of economies of scale and specialisation. For example, a single component at the Mini factory in Oxford can cross into and out of the UK several times before being installed. Without membership of the Single market (with its associated common regulations, underwriting, and standards-checking regime), what happens here? This is just one factory out of a huge number in the UK. Do they all start manufacturing in-house? How much disruption is caused and jobs lost?

    2 - Port delays. The delays at Dover and the tailbacks and disruption that would occur as soon as we leave without any deal which reflects a common recognition of standards and checks are well known. Unless we simply throw open the borders and check nothing (which won't help on the way out), the lorry parks in Kent will exist. (And if we throw open our borders and accept whatever comes in, unchecked and unregistered, what the hell did we 'take back control' of?). What is going to be tied up in the ports and the M20/M2 lorry parks?

    3 - Supply chains redux. We know that supermarkets don't keep extensive stocks - that's economic suicide. Even with them stockpiling where they can, the shelves could run out quickly if lorries aren't coming in regularly, and if they're in a big truck jam, they won't be coming in regularly. Panic buying can accompany this.

    4 - Supply chains redux again. Factories (which aren't getting their widgets- the ones they do something to - going to and fro regularly) are also going to have to get the widgets-for-incorporation stockpiled rather than delivered just-in-time. This will be an additional shock/disruption.

    5 - Medical and others - we import medicines quite a lot (again, economies of scale and specialisation). Medicines which have to hit certain regulations and standards. We can do emergency shipments (as if we're a third world country that's had a natural disaster), but that's not sustainable and fraught with issues. What happens in the medium term here?

    6 - The Irish border. Unless we accept a sort of de facto backstop where Northern Ireland accepts everything from the Republic whatever the standards and regulations that applies to it (and there will certainly be chancers around for this), there's a hard border and shit happens there.

    That's just off the top of my head.
    What Mini component(s) cross the channel multiple times?
    How many Mini components cross the channel multiple times?
    What percentage of components cross the channel multiple times?
    Pretty basic info.
  • Sam Gyimah is suggesting that he knows what Number 10's current thinking is.

    1) Meaningful Vote. They expect to lose, hard.
    2) They agree a series of indicative votes, in conference with the other party leaders, to be put the house.
    3) If no winner emerges, least popular choices will be eliminated and the process repeated (an exhaustive ballot, essentially)
    4) All the party leaders (including the PM) will agree, beforehand, the the votes will be free votes, and the party's whips will agree to be bound by the result of the indicative votes.

    Wasn’t this the idea that was hatched on here several days back?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    If the "obvious reason" for Ireland is that we used to be in a political union with them, it applies to the EU26 too.
    I suspect Donny means the CTA, the Ireland Act and the reciprocal Irish legislation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    South West Trains used to be good but they lost their franchise to FirstGroup/MTR (South Western Railway) and it's all gone tits up since then. But I am sure FirstGroup offered more dosh, so that's all fine then :disappointed:
    I haven't noticed much difference, both are mediocre. I'd say the new outfit has marginally better customer service. Reliability (except for the strike) is similar and of course the timetable and rolling stock haven't changed, except for the inevitable repainting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287

    Also, in perspective...

    A total of 93,000 retail jobs have been lost in the past year amid a crunch on the High Street.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-6501825/Britains-High-Street-crisis-claims-93-000-jobs-year-chains-going-bust-store-closures.html
    Likely to be worse after Christmas too.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2018-12-16/consumers-hit-the-shops-but-weekend-footfall-down-on-last-year/
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Sounds too much like common sense to be plausible. What's in it for Labour?
    Labour really doesn't want to have to have its internal contradictions exposed any more than the Tories do. Labour's looking for a way to backpedal from their confused mess of a Brexit policy as much as the Tories.

    By making the votes all be free votes, it's hoped that no one party will get the blame for the (almost certain) remain result this process will produce.
  • Sounds too much like common sense to be plausible. What's in it for Labour?
    If cross parties agree and labour hold out it would very damaging to them

    However, I believe it when I see it
  • That's a fair point, as are your examples. Personally I think there will be quite serious disruption at airports in the UK and in Europe, dnot due to grounded planes but because the changing processes will cause a lot of confusion and at most airports it only takes a very minor issue to escalate to serious delays.
    I wouldn't be surprised either. Airports now operate at an incredibly pace and massive numbers of people pass through every day. Changes to any procedures, I am sure will initially cause disruption.

    I remember after 9/11, when they made big changes to security checks and there were a lot of delays to get through to air side. Now, they have stream lined all of that, with the automated tray thingy and you can normally get through pretty quickly.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    Wasn’t this the idea that was hatched on here several days back?
    It's essentially the "papal conclave" method. Except hopefully nobody has to die.

    The UK is inventing new Constitution on the fly.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035


    I am not a subscriber but if it’s Ivan Rogers speech, I’ve already read it. Not sure a former ambassador is the most reliable guide to economic consequences of any particular course of action.
    He has a pretty damning analysis of the consequences of leaving with an unmanaged deal and I would like to see an equally robust counter argument before I'd want to jump off the cliff
  • Foxy said:

    Likely to be worse after Christmas too.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2018-12-16/consumers-hit-the-shops-but-weekend-footfall-down-on-last-year/
    I was reading about just how nuts the retail world is these days. Amazon (and all the others) get massive amount of returns, but costs too much to process them. So they sell massive job lots via B2B, who then sell them on to small resellers, who send them into Amazon FBA to sell them on....Amazon....
  • What Mini component(s) cross the channel multiple times?
    How many Mini components cross the channel multiple times?
    What percentage of components cross the channel multiple times?
    Pretty basic info.
    But as a Brexiteer you know the answer.

    You simply must to have any creditabilty on JIT manufacturing and the impact on the no deal you want
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    OllyT said:

    He has a pretty damning analysis of the consequences of leaving with an unmanaged deal and I would like to see an equally robust counter argument before I'd want to jump off the cliff
    Ivan Rogers, of course, was fire by Mrs May for the crime of being Too Competent.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    It's essentially the "papal conclave" method. Except hopefully nobody has to die.

    The UK is inventing new Constitution on the fly.
    The UK has always invented its constitution on the fly. It’s what we do.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Ivan Rogers, of course, was fire by Mrs May for the crime of being Too Competent.
    I believe it was Mr Heywood who got tired of him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    edited December 2018

    Labour really doesn't want to have to have its internal contradictions exposed any more than the Tories do. Labour's looking for a way to backpedal from their confused mess of a Brexit policy as much as the Tories.

    By making the votes all be free votes, it's hoped that no one party will get the blame for the (almost certain) remain result this process will produce.
    You may be right - I hope you are.

    I struggle to see how we could Remain without a further referendum though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    OllyT said:

    He has a pretty damning analysis of the consequences of leaving with an unmanaged deal and I would like to see an equally robust counter argument before I'd want to jump off the cliff
    Regardless, government is increasingly aware of the risks, and it underlines why, apart from a few extremists, they simply won't countenance no deal. The economic consequences and hence the political risks are too severe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287

    What Mini component(s) cross the channel multiple times?
    How many Mini components cross the channel multiple times?
    What percentage of components cross the channel multiple times?
    Pretty basic info.
    The Mini crankshaft is an example.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu

    Seems a bit unnecessary to me, but then I am not in that line of work.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679


    I am not a subscriber but if it’s Ivan Rogers speech, I’ve already read it. Not sure a former ambassador is the most reliable guide to economic consequences of any particular course of action.
    Anyone is worth listening to as long as they aren't an economist.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    It's essentially the "papal conclave" method. Except hopefully nobody has to die.

    The UK is inventing new Constitution on the fly.
    A similar thing was done for Lord's reform proposals.
  • Anazina said:

    Nationalise the lot. Franchising simply does not work.
    I have used the East Coast Mainline to travel to Aberdeen for the last 5 years. The Operators run a system called Delay/Repay which means that if your train is more than an hour late you get your full fare back.

    In the 4 or so years up to June this year I had to claim exactly once, in early 2017.

    In the 6 months since the publicly owned LNER took over from Virgin I have had to claim 4 times. Needles to say I am not impressed with the way the service has deteriorated.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591


    1 - Supply chains. These are embedded around the EU to take advantage of economies of scale and specialisation. For example, a single component at the Mini factory in Oxford can cross into and out of the UK several times before being installed. Without membership of the Single market (with its associated common regulations, underwriting, and standards-checking regime), what happens here? This is just one factory out of a huge number in the UK. Do they all start manufacturing in-house? How much disruption is caused and jobs lost?

    2 - Port delays. The delays at Dover and the tailbacks and disruption that would occur as soon as we leave without any deal which reflects a common recognition of standards and checks are well known. Unless we simply throw open the borders and check nothing (which won't help on the way out), the lorry parks in Kent will exist. (And if we throw open our borders and accept whatever comes in, unchecked and unregistered, what the hell did we 'take back control' of?). What is going to be tied up in the ports and the M20/M2 lorry parks?

    3 - Supply chains redux. We know that supermarkets don't keep extensive stocks - that's economic suicide. Even with them stockpiling where they can, the shelves could run out quickly if lorries aren't coming in regularly, and if they're in a big truck jam, they won't be coming in regularly. Panic buying can accompany this.

    4 - Supply chains redux again. Factories (which aren't getting their widgets- the ones they do something to - going to and fro regularly) are also going to have to get the widgets-for-incorporation stockpiled rather than delivered just-in-time. This will be an additional shock/disruption.

    5 - Medical and others - we import medicines quite a lot (again, economies of scale and specialisation). Medicines which have to hit certain regulations and standards. We can do emergency shipments (as if we're a third world country that's had a natural disaster), but that's not sustainable and fraught with issues. What happens in the medium term here?

    6 - The Irish border.

    I was at an event held by the dairy industry the other week. There was general consternation at the lack of information about what will happen after 29 March. Most milk used in the UK is home produced but large quantities of butter and cream are imported, cream from Holland and butter from Ireland. Producers are stockpiling butter, which can be frozen, but there is limited capacity for storage. Cream cannot be stockpiled and supplies would dry up in a few days if there delays at cross channel ports. The general expectation was that a no deal Brexit would mean shortages of some items and big price increases for those that were available.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Wasn’t this the idea that was hatched on here several days back?
    Can MPs have some of these votes by secret ballot or must they traipse through the lobbies, causing some to change their vote out of sheer fear of the mob? That's what 'respecting the vote' is code for.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Brexit is the Schleswig-Holstein question de nos jours.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    What Mini component(s) cross the channel multiple times?
    How many Mini components cross the channel multiple times?
    What percentage of components cross the channel multiple times?
    Pretty basic info.
    Given the SM has existed for ~25 years, it's not unreasonable for businesses to have evolved and adapted to the business climate afforded by the SEA.

    It's also not unreasonable for people to worry about the effect of a rapid change in that business climate. A goodly number of FDI decisions were made on the basis that the UK was a member of the SM, and Brexit is going to cause those decisions to be reassessed, and frankly, not necessarily in the UK's favour (though note the big tech companies have made large and recent investments in the UK).

    One of the effects of the Single Market (as an emergent behaviour ) is that European economies have begun to specialise, hence our dependency on imported pharma as one example.

    Business will adapt; it always does. However, the idea that businesses can just take any change in its stride, no matter what the delta is frankly silly.

    I'm very worried about the insouciance of some Leavers about 'no deal'. It's not so much trade as *commerce*, which includes pure services, goods-dependent services and capital flows around Europe and beyond.

    I say that as PB's #1 Supreme Brexiteer and lifelong member of the League of Empire Loyalists :). The burden of proof is on the no-dealers. Simply throwing down 'WTO terms' doth not an answer make.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922

    I wouldn't be surprised either. Airports now operate at an incredibly pace and massive numbers of people pass through every day. Changes to any procedures, I am sure will initially cause disruption.
    Isn't the economy in general optimised for efficiency rather than robustness?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Ah yes, the Hammond labelling of all Brexit supporters as extremists. Funny how quick Remainers are to resort to insults. FOM was a big reason Leave won. There were riots in Brussels today about fears of more immigration. I don’t want riots in the UK. Ending FOM will suit me.
    Was that riot about migration within the EU or from outside the EU?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Can MPs have some of these votes by secret ballot or must they traipse through the lobbies, causing some to change their vote out of sheer fear of the mob? That's what 'respecting the vote' is code for.
    Divisions are a matter of record. Mainly so that voters know what their MP did while in the Commons.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    Labour really doesn't want to have to have its internal contradictions exposed any more than the Tories do. Labour's looking for a way to backpedal from their confused mess of a Brexit policy as much as the Tories.

    By making the votes all be free votes, it's hoped that no one party will get the blame for the (almost certain) remain result this process will produce.
    And they must all be desperate for something they looks like they have recovered the initiative and are working through things. The reputational damage to all politicians over recent months has been severe.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited December 2018
    Anazina said:


    No, a very narrow majority of those who actually voted, voted to leave the EU. That was all.

    Spot on. No one can dictate what form Leave MUST take. For me and many other Leavers May's deal. although far from perfect is certainly Leave which is why it should be supported - if only for fear of allowing Remain back in.

    Edit; since I notice I have answered two points from you in succession, Evening by the way :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    But as a Brexiteer you know the answer.

    You simply must to have any creditabilty on JIT manufacturing and the impact on the no deal you want
    Brilliant answer if I may say so Big_G! :lol:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    John_M said:

    Given the SM has existed for ~25 years, it's not unreasonable for businesses to have evolved and adapted to the business climate afforded by the SEA.

    It's also not unreasonable for people to worry about the effect of a rapid change in that business climate. A goodly number of FDI decisions were made on the basis that the UK was a member of the SM, and Brexit is going to cause those decisions to be reassessed, and frankly, not necessarily in the UK's favour (though note the big tech companies have made large and recent investments in the UK).

    One of the effects of the Single Market (as an emergent behaviour ) is that European economies have begun to specialise, hence our dependency on imported pharma as one example.

    Business will adapt; it always does. However, the idea that businesses can just take any change in its stride, no matter what the delta is frankly silly.

    I'm very worried about the insouciance of some Leavers about 'no deal'. It's not so much trade as *commerce*, which includes pure services, goods-dependent services and capital flows around Europe and beyond.

    I say that as PB's #1 Supreme Brexiteer and lifelong member of the League of Empire Loyalists :). The burden of proof is on the no-dealers. Simply throwing down 'WTO terms' doth not an answer make.
    The trouble is, so many of them are like Nadine Dorries, starting from what they want to believe and then searching, sifting and disregarding evidence and argumentation accordingly.

  • I was at an event held by the dairy industry the other week. There was general consternation at the lack of information about what will happen after 29 March. Most milk used in the UK is home produced but large quantities of butter and cream are imported, cream from Holland and butter from Ireland. Producers are stockpiling butter, which can be frozen, but there is limited capacity for storage. Cream cannot be stockpiled and supplies would dry up in a few days if there delays at cross channel ports. The general expectation was that a no deal Brexit would mean shortages of some items and big price increases for those that were available.

    Surely the root cause of that though is that for years farmers were forced to pour milk down the drain because of quotas. If they have any foresight farmers should welcome the fact they would be able to start building their dairy herds again.
This discussion has been closed.