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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote
There’s an interesting article by Ipsos-MORI’s Roger Mortimer on the way that LAB voters are increaingly saying that they are more certain to vote than CON ones.
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Germany was slightly behind expectations, coming out at 53.1, which is a slight slowdown from December's 53.6.
Overall Eurozone composite PMI showed a continued, albeit tepid, recovery - the figure of 52.9 was marginally behind December's 53.2 but still showed economic expansion.
Broadly: the periphery (Ireland and Spain) is improving; Germany is weaker than expected; while France and Italy might be pulling themselves off the floor, but we probably need a few more months results before getting more optimistic.
I am slightly disappointed he announced it as I thought I had an inside line through our friendship on Facebook and I was going to surprise him this morning :-)
Anyway, also in answer to Nick (since he referenced me specifically) regarding Batten's 'Charter' comments.
I am in a slightly strange position with this one and probably not representative of anyone else's views except my own. Since I am quite vehemently atheist and think all beliefs in the Middle Eastern Sky Fairies are probably a sign of some underlying illness in society I am pretty happy with anything that marginalizes religion in the modern world. Of course I would not impose that view on anyone else but since Batten's proposal was apparently for something voluntary - something that allowed but did not force people to proclaim their opposition to extremism - I do not see anything really wrong with it in principle.
In practice it is probably a stupid and unworkable idea since of course it would be used as a stick to beat those individuals and organisations who for whatever reason (some perfectly reasonable) chose not to sign up.
So I would not attack Batten for proposing it - I do not believe there is anything morally or philosophically wrong with the idea. But I would criticise him for not having thought through what it would mean in practice and how much division it could potentially sow between groups who are otherwise moderate in their views. .
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
More likely, Miliband has been throwing his base some red meat in the form of raising taxes on other people and they like that.
I won't call you names if you don't belittle my beliefs. I find references to "sky fairies" and "[mental] illnesses" really rather offensive. I don't expect to to share my views, but I do think it is reasonable to respect the fact that I hold them genuinely and in good faith.
Cheers.
Mike, you'll just have to content yourself with another Con/LibDem coalition and a peerage for political services a few years down the line.
Lord Smithson of Bedford has a certain elegance to it.
Does this make me a bad person?
On a less vicious note, it's the same 'sensitivity' (aided by political cowardice) that means we almost have a de facto blasphemy law when it comes to Islam/Mohammed.
I make a point of not actually naming individuals in my comments but I certainly would not agree to religion of any kind being off limits for ridicule and criticism. By the way my mother is a devout Catholic and I do understand therefore that people hold these beliefs genuinely and in good faith. I just happen to believe they are utterly wrong and detrimental to both society and the individual.
For instance the SNP MSP Monsieur Allain is a directl slot-in replacement for a deceased North-East list MSP - http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-parliament-s-first-french-msp-sworn-in-1-2930881
Of course this does not work if a single independent MSP dies - but I suppose this is not unjust as they have no party to complain about being hard done by. Presumably they have an election.
A Labour Minority Gov't is still my view whilst the very best the Conservatives can hope for a continuation of the coalition. I am still ruling out a Conservative Majority.
One's reminded of Churchill's assessment of appeasement: an appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.
But that's not the same as calling believers names.
I would call you out if you called Labour supporters "mentally ill" or "Leftards" for instance. (And I suspect OGH would intervene pretty fast).
1997 would be high, 2001 low etc - punters of all party allegiance could bet on the same outcomes.
Maybe in 2015 we’ll see higher turnouts and votes for Labour. In their heartlands it will make zero difference to MPS. But if this impending rise in turnout applies also to marginals then they’ll win by a big margin.
It's a view, one he's perfectly entitled to and one that should be ridiculed and held in contempt.
I don't think it makes sense to treat all religious practices alike but I appreciate that if one has a devout Catholic mother the temptation is probably irresistible.
Looking at the above graph, the current figures are the eighth time that Labour's 'certainty to vote' figures have topped the Tory ones since the election - or put another way, on seven occasions, the Tories have recovered the lead. Will this time be any different.
In fact, the medium-term trend is for *both* major parties' figures to show a slow decline, from around 67% in late 2010 to about 60% now, with both wobbling about 3% either side of that trend line. I don't think these latest figures are any more significant that those from late 2013 which gave the Conservatives a brief lead.
Also it shows the continued decline in solid support since the GE, notwithstanding the Labour surge from the LD defections.
Similar graphs for UKIP and the LDs would be interesting as would be also for the SNP (Scotland and Westminster elections).
It is one area of this country where I feel we are going backwards. The Life of Brian is arguably one of Britain's greatest comedies, banned by several local authorities and countries at the time, I think you'd have to search a while to find a Christian who would want it banned now.
The right of people to mock, lampoon and satirise religion - be it Christianity, Islam or even the lack of it in Atheism (As SeanT did in his blog) is something that is fundamentally British I feel.
It's actually "Sky Fairy" that I find insulting. I am not a Hindu or a Buddist, for instance, but I would refer to their gods by their chosen name. It is just a question of common courtesy.
I presume you regard the USA as undemocratic because of the way Senators are elected?
More seriously, how would you suggest the Coalition remedy it?
I don't see why all MPs have to have exactly one vote each. Let constituencies be based on historical boundaries (or ones that people can relate to in some other "real-world" way) and let the MP have as many votes in the House as they have constituents who voted for them.
Of course, this would require the Party apparatuses to work flat out in all seats, so it's hardly like to appeal to them...
But I have just politely asked Richard not to use an offensive term. I don't think that is unreasonable.
It’s the true Believers that are the more dangerous ones. Their whole world view is shaped through the lens of that belief and simple facts or opposing beliefs pose a threat to their belief system – and they don’t always react well to this. I’d put the US Christian evangelist/creationist lot and Islamic fundamentalists in this category.
I think the ratio of Believers to Behavers in Islam is a lot higher than Christianity – they haven’t had their Enlightenment yet.
Then worst of all are, of course, the Beliebers!
You think a battle of the quotes stacking up what the PB tories have said is very wise do you? I'd be fine with that particularly after some of the ludicrously naive posts already about what has and hasn't been posted on here. Nothing ringing a bell about any PB tories posting endlessly on who is or is not "insane"? No? Try thinking harder.
Oh and at least have the decency to wait till that poster you refer to comes on later to defend his own views as I'm sure he will.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03trt4y/Newsnight_04_02_2014/
Islam/Christianity
Protestants/Catholics
Sunni/Shia
And with that, all vestiges of religion will be gone.
Does God exist, if there is no one to believe in him?
1. The general election opinion poll certainty to vote figures were 74% for the Conservatives and 66% for Labour, which compares with the election turnout of 65.1%. While it is possible that turnout for all other voters was down at the ~50-55% necessary to reconcile these figures, it is perhaps more likely that people in general over-estimate their likelihood to vote. If Labour voters are more likely to do so this has the potential to introduce error.
2. A greater certainty to vote by Labour supporters will help a bit in the marginals, perhaps, but the largest impact is likely to be racking up larger majorities in safe Labour seats, which would tend to reduce the efficiency of Labour's vote distribution, and not help them win a majority in seats - though it does make the scenario of Labour most seats & Conservatives most votes less likely, which would be helpful for Labour in any post-election coalition negotiations.
The most telling thing about that chart is even after all the damage Brown and Darling had done to the economy the labour 'certain to vote' still shoots up before the election as does the tory one. (I'm wondering what caused the steep drop for labour before that rise and there's another spike and drop in roughly July 08)
The gap between the tories and labour remains pretty constant during the steep pre-election jump so it's probably safe to presume by that time (roughly 6 months before an election) whatever the gap is will remain pretty much the same come 2015 as well.
Wait till that devastating lib dem 'differentiation' kicks in, then Gove won't know what hit him. Though of course nor will anyone else since it won't work.
Turns out both of them see that education needs a serious shake up. The difference was that Blair let the Blob tendency in his own party overwhelm him and he ultimately chickened out of his own good ideas - whereas Gove only has an external enemy to confront here and seems to relish the challenge. They're both right.
Today.
We can't say that we didn't see this coming. Has any work on an alternative route for the train line been done?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/02/sorry-rmt-theres-no-proof-the-public-support-the-tube-strikes/
Like I said, people did warn this sort of thing would happen.
Will it annoy little Ed? Quite possibly but he and the remaining Blairites were already busy trying to push union reforms Blair did not so he won't be that worried.
Fact is Blair could have went as far as he wanted on school reforms with very big majorities. He marched the labour party through the aye lobby for Iraq so let's not pretend this after the fact spin from Blair is either very believable or not primarily yet another swift kick aimed at the current labour leadership.
It certainly proves Gove is a bog-standard Blairite because far from reaching for any tory standard-bearers on the right he predictably seeks out Blair and jumps to his tune. Yet again.
http://www.therailwaycentre.com/Sea Wall Guide/SWhistory.html
Those pesky Victorians and their global warming!
It seems to me that some pro-AGW folks are seeing patterns where there may not be any ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Devon_Railway_sea_wall#Maintenance_and_the_future
I do not accept that religion should not be open to ridicule for the simple fact that it is ridiculous. Middle Eastern Sky Fairy belief is a perfectly good (if derisory) description of the organised monotheistic religions and I see no reason at all not to continue using it.
(And just to annoy the Kipper tendency on here, why don't we use the DfID budget for things like flood defences in Bangladesh?)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10618989/Exclusive-Labours-Wythenshawe-and-Sale-East-candidate-wanted-David-Miliband-to-be-leader.html
Of course you can carry on using it if you want.
But that says a huge amount about you.
AS you are so dumb , it was a figure of speech that anyone with the intelligence of a 5 year old or above would have understood. Obviously you are not out of nursery school yet.
I'm very interested in politics. I have never missed an opportunity to vote (though I have once spoiled my ballot paper). With over a year to go before the next election, I would not be sufficiently confident that I would be 10/10 certain to vote. Nor do I see how anyone else could claim to be either.
I concur entirely. Someone making a film called Life of Abdul would probably have to spend the rest of their life in hiding. Politicians (and the media) are failing to stand up for freedom of speech in a major way.
In addition, ISTR the rice paddies require regular flooding, but I might be wrong on that,
Basically, it is massively difficult to do, either from fresh or salt water.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/cristinaodone/100258140/sally-bercows-latest-scandal-means-john-bercow-has-to-go/
Yet all that the political establishment cares about is HS2. Although it now looks as though Labour is going to do its best to scupper further legislation before May 2015.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/10618108/HS2-Labour-could-delay-law-to-kill-off-42bn-scheme.html
It would explain much.
If we withdraw all that some find offensive then we simply give the censor's pen to the most extreme.
1) It would cost an unaffordable amount
2) It would require lots of stone (Bangladesh doesn't have any)
3) It would take a very long time to do
4) It might not work
Or fruitcakes, or racists
I am sure that OGH will delete this post - quite reasonably - because it is offensive to call you names. I would ask that you don't use offensive terms to describe my God.
That said, I've found my atheism mellowing significantly over time. I probably shared Mr. Tyndall's view some years ago, but now (so long as the beliefs of others don't infringe upon me or the rights of others) then I generally don't care.
If he wants to have a reasonable argument as to why it is futile and pointless to believe in God, whether Christian or not, then bring it on. (Although ultimately it comes down to faith so I doubt it will shed much light as a discussion)
I will wait for the cease and desist letter from your god before I start worrying about offending her.
Incredible pictures from Dawlish - I suspect this time the mainline will be closed for a long time. It's a unique stretch of line and a big part of the train travelling experience from London to Penzance (something I used to do a lot in the 90s) and has always been vulnerable to winter disruption.
I fear this may not be the end of the storms.
*chortle*