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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’ big Brexit polling news – LAB could slip to third place if it helped CON pass Brexit
New YouGov poll finds that LAB would drop to behind the LDs if the party helps the Tories to pass Brexit https://t.co/WcnsPVRxJi
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Bang!0
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"So called yellow vests protesters" - Are the BBC worried about offending people who wear yellow vests?0
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There is now a game of brinkmanship going on.
My bet is that one of Corbyn or May is forced to blink first on the referendum; or alternatively can mutually act out their roles in making this happen. May proposes her deal and Corbyn adds remain to ballot option.0 -
What I think of the finding of this poll...
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Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
Surely it should say 'could' drop rather than 'would' drop?
Remarkable. She had the plot?Jonathan said:
TM has lost the plot.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
TM attacks Tony Blair for insulting the Office of Prime Minister by interfering in the brexit process
Doesn't look as if she is going to support a referendum
I think we can safely call it as displacement activity focusing on a widely disliked figure. Just today again I heard with confidence that Blair is and was never less than a tory.0 -
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I wonder if Labour’s internal polling agrees with that. Don’t see Labour getting off the pot on Brexit at all myself. Could explain why Labour hasn’t forced a VNOC though.0
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My wife's 80th birthday cruise is southampton to nova scotia, new england, boston, new york and back over 24 days in September and should be safeAmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:
But that is so selfish, no deal has to be stopped0 -
The madness of a coalition of Corbyn, Cable and co?Scott_P said:0 -
"could".0
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So he could only have been pm if he were not in fact conviction led and stuck to his views, meaning we would not respect him.tottenhamWC said:
Hunt is an absolute idiot. This is why, whatever you think of his politics, you have to admire someone like Ken Clarke, who is conviction led and sticks to his views. Could have easily been Tory leader and PM if he dialled back or hidden his pro-EU viewsFrancisUrquhart said:
What for? The Bus?Scott_P said:
If cabinet offers one Corbyn would find it very hard to say no depending on the question.IanB2 said:If all the media rumours are to be believed, leading Tories are warming to a referendum just as leading Labour goes cold. Perhaps Labour only wanted to back the idea if it never came to pass. There is still nevertheless close to a majority in Parliament for it, particularly if it has some sort of cabinet backing.
Changing government might improve things but it won't stop the mad chaos. If brexit is the madness they mean to stop labour officially are committed to leaving at the moment.Scott_P said:
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There's no rush - any alternate plans they have require delays, somehow, so from their perspective let the Tories squirm.AmpfieldAndy said:I wonder if Labour’s internal polling agrees with that. Don’t see Labour getting off the pot on Brexit at all myself. Could explain why Labour hasn’t forced a VNOC though.
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As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
I see the two minute hate for Hunt has started on here because he isn't a crappy remainer like most of the cabinet.0
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Not from me but am a bit surprisedXenon said:I see the two minute hate for Hunt has started on here because he isn't a crappy remainer like most of the cabinet.
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I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.Scott_P said:0 -
Believe it or not, things have changed a bit since the referendum.IanB2 said:
Apart from his having voted remain, you mean?Xenon said:I see the two minute hate for Hunt has started on here because he isn't a crappy remainer like most of the cabinet.
And the fact that he is exploring the possibility of no deal means the usual suspects on here going mental.0 -
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
Hunt trying to outflank Javid for the wingnut vote. Sad.0
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I don't know.Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
Astonishing that some ministers think no deal is just a small bump in the road !
These nutjobs are a disgrace and couldn’t care less about the general public .0 -
Hunt in 2016: to his credit, he argued that triggering A50 before working up our proposals would be dumb, because of the risk of crashing out. He was also an early adopter of the second vote:
So our plan must be to encourage them to reform those rules, thereby opening up a space for a “Norway plus” option for us – full access to the single market with a sensible compromise on free movement rules. As their biggest non-EU trading partner, it is in the European interest to do this deal with them as much as it is in our interests to secure it.
So what is the best way to secure such a deal? Firstly we must not invoke Article 50 straight away because that puts a time limit of two years on negotiations after which we could be thrown out with no deal at all. So before setting the clock ticking, we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh general election.0 -
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Cancel and go to Italy.Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
Someone has to try and leave the country, just to see if we still can. It may as well be you.Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:
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Hence the argument for a second vote. Which Hunt himself made early on.Xenon said:
Believe it or not, things have changed a bit since the referendum.IanB2 said:
Apart from his having voted remain, you mean?Xenon said:I see the two minute hate for Hunt has started on here because he isn't a crappy remainer like most of the cabinet.
And the fact that he is exploring the possibility of no deal means the usual suspects on here going mental.0 -
Lidlington would prostitute himself to anyone to keep Britain in the EU.Scott_P said:0 -
Not really a man of the people nor a man for the people is our KenScott_P said:0 -
I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
May was right to point out that the choice facing MPs was her deal, no deal or no Brexit. Her deal is dead, no deal is not acceptable to about 500 out of 650 MPs.Scott_P said:
So no Brexit it will be.0 -
Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.Floater said:
May affect the #peoplesvote0 -
Thanks IanIanB2 said:
Someone has to try and leave the country, just to see if we still can. It may as well be you.Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!0
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I'm probably holidaying in Germany come June. I'm extremely confident I'll be able to go whatever scenario plays out.0
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Depends on which paper you readPulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!
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"Calls for Royal Mail to rethink design of religious stamps as sales slump"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/15/calls-royal-mail-rethink-design-religious-stamps-sales-slump/0 -
Get the best deal they can then check people are happy with it via another referendum.Xenon said:
People voted to leave the EU and there's no way of getting an acceptable deal. What else can they do?nico67 said:Astonishing that some ministers think no deal is just a small bump in the road !
These nutjobs are a disgrace and couldn’t care less about the general public .0 -
It is 6-4 against on Betfair. What are the true odds ? What's the Kelly criterion ?IanB2 said:
It was just taking a step back for a run up.Pulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!
Should I take an early redemption penalty on my mortgage and put 60 grand down on it ?0 -
Cabinet ministers are making fresh pleas for a new approach after the prime minister’s bleakest week in office, which has left her authority seriously damaged and led some Tory MPs to fear it will become impossible for her to govern.
Senior figures in the government are convinced that with no sign of the parliamentary stalemate being resolved, Tory MPs must be allowed a free vote in a series of ballots over different options – allowing ministers and backbenchers to support a second referendum as a way out. Some ministers are planning to take matters into their own hands and back another public vote should the prime minister’s beleaguered Brexit deal be rejected. “Once the deal has been voted down, there will be no clear government position and we will be freer,” said one.0 -
Nick P sounds intensely relaxed about 'no deal'NickPalmer said:The argument is incidentally being distorted by the hyperbole of "No Deal=no food or medicine". That won't happen. If we can't reach a deal, a basic WTO arrangement allowing the flow of trade (with tariffs), aircraft flying etc., will be reached while we ponder what to do. The discussion should weigh that up against the deal or any other deal. The option would be extremely unsatisfactory but probably not permanent. The WA in all likelihood would be permanent.
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So the new Leave campaign slogan . We survived worst ! No deal is apparently what everyone voted for . Shame I didn’t see that on the bus.0
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Good to hear some grownups are still working in Westminster.0
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Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choiceFoxy said:
I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
Are you going to Peru?AmpfieldAndy said:
Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choiceFoxy said:
I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
He's not going to lose his job if the economy goes [redacted]Pulpstar said:
Nick P sounds intensely relaxed about 'no deal'NickPalmer said:The argument is incidentally being distorted by the hyperbole of "No Deal=no food or medicine". That won't happen. If we can't reach a deal, a basic WTO arrangement allowing the flow of trade (with tariffs), aircraft flying etc., will be reached while we ponder what to do. The discussion should weigh that up against the deal or any other deal. The option would be extremely unsatisfactory but probably not permanent. The WA in all likelihood would be permanent.
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There is a Llama farm in the West WightAmpfieldAndy said:
Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choiceFoxy said:
I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said: 0 -
And Chileralphmalph said:
Are you going to Peru?AmpfieldAndy said:
Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choiceFoxy said:
I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
No. I think it'd be crap. But I think the overblown rhetoric is actually disguising its crapness, because people rightly dismiss the hysterical stuff and don't notice just how grim it would be for the economy.Pulpstar said:
Nick P sounds intensely relaxed about 'no deal'NickPalmer said:The argument is incidentally being distorted by the hyperbole of "No Deal=no food or medicine". That won't happen. If we can't reach a deal, a basic WTO arrangement allowing the flow of trade (with tariffs), aircraft flying etc., will be reached while we ponder what to do. The discussion should weigh that up against the deal or any other deal. The option would be extremely unsatisfactory but probably not permanent. The WA in all likelihood would be permanent.
Utterly bizarre on the last thread that Mrs May attacks Blair for "insulting the office of the Prime Minister" for proposing a second referendum. We've all heard rather stronger insults than that from people on her own side. TB may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he doesn't do insults.
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Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).Floater said:
No Deal Brexit means no deal.0 -
After the past two years it's quite hard to believe that there are any grown ups in Westminster.Jonathan said:Good to hear some grownups are still working in Westminster.
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First two weeks of Jan are a huge surge in bookings.Foxy said:
Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.Floater said:
May affect the #peoplesvote
Normally.0 -
Yes, I think a lot of the No Deal apocalyptic talk is overblown.NickPalmer said:
No. I think it'd be crap. But I think the overblown rhetoric is actually disguising its crapness, because people rightly dismiss the hysterical stuff and don't notice just how grim it would be for the economy.Pulpstar said:
Nick P sounds intensely relaxed about 'no deal'NickPalmer said:The argument is incidentally being distorted by the hyperbole of "No Deal=no food or medicine". That won't happen. If we can't reach a deal, a basic WTO arrangement allowing the flow of trade (with tariffs), aircraft flying etc., will be reached while we ponder what to do. The discussion should weigh that up against the deal or any other deal. The option would be extremely unsatisfactory but probably not permanent. The WA in all likelihood would be permanent.
Utterly bizarre on the last thread that Mrs May attacks Blair for "insulting the office of the Prime Minister" for proposing a second referendum. We've all heard rather stronger insults than that from people on her own side. TB may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he doesn't do insults.
But I am in the ultimate safe business, rich or poor, state or private, there will always be work for me.0 -
In Peru, seeing as you mentioned Machu Pichu I assume you will be in Cusco. If you have time hire an authorised guide. They have completed three years at Uni to qualify. The one we hired for a day was fascinating. They take you to sites to explain both how the Inca's lived but also how the archaeologists worked it all out and ours was a local and he took us to his village for lunch to meet "real" Peruvians.AmpfieldAndy said:
And Chileralphmalph said:
Are you going to Peru?AmpfieldAndy said:
Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choiceFoxy said:
I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:
But anyway have a great time I did.0 -
I will. Thanks a lot for the tip. Much appreciatedralphmalph said:
In Peru, seeing as you mentioned Machu Pichu I assume you will be in Cusco. If you have time hire an authorised guide. They have completed three years at Uni to qualify. The one we hired for a day was fascinating. They take you to sites to explain both how the Inca's lived but also how the archaeologists worked it all out and ours was a local and he took us to his village for lunch to meet "real" Peruvians.AmpfieldAndy said:
And Chileralphmalph said:
Are you going to Peru?AmpfieldAndy said:
Tempting though that is, I think I’ll pass........ BlackgangChine vs Machu Pichu and the Atacama isn’t really a choiceFoxy said:
I reckon the Red Funnel line to East Cowes will still be running fine...AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:
But anyway have a great time I did.0 -
He at least wants parliament to fix the mess itself. It is not necessary to delegate it to the people.Scott_P said:0 -
I think the true probability, based on political factors, is about 20-25%, not 40-50%. It implies that the odds should be 4.0-5.0. So I've bet a small amount on no referendum.Pulpstar said:
It is 6-4 against on Betfair. What are the true odds ? What's the Kelly criterion ?IanB2 said:
It was just taking a step back for a run up.Pulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!
Should I take an early redemption penalty on my mortgage and put 60 grand down on it ?
I understand constituency betting better than Brexit. Can we have a GE please?0 -
If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was on Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party0
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Depends who is talking, though I don't buy labour would go sour on a referendum. It's not the professed no.1 option but it gives a lot off Them what they want- a do over.Pulpstar said:Hold on, wasn't a second referendum chance receeding just a couple of threads ago - and now we're "hurtling toward inevitability" ?!
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May offers parliament a vote on #peoplesvote
ERG and DUP confirm they will support a Labour VONC in response
Labour VONC wins
Election ensues
Labour gain power in exchange for a #peoplesvote between Permanent CU deal and Remain
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He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.HYUFD said:If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party
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Matt on the case:Alistair said:
First two weeks of Jan are a huge surge in bookings.Foxy said:
Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.Floater said:
May affect the #peoplesvote
Normally.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1074014997271994379?s=190 -
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Is it package - flights & accommodation - or separate?Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
Ah, the sad 'people are laughing at us' gag. Nations go through hard, chaotic politics sometimes, and people will laugh as a result, it doesn't destroy that nation and should not worry people. After all decision makers and diplomats will be much more cold and calculating, once tough times pass past laughter hardly matters. But insecure people seem to get very worked up about it.Foxy said:
Matt on the case:Alistair said:
First two weeks of Jan are a huge surge in bookings.Foxy said:
Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.Floater said:
May affect the #peoplesvote
Normally.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1074014997271994379?s=190 -
Jonathan said:0
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Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage partykle4 said:
He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.HYUFD said:If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party
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Could happen. Labour get to be in power and what they want, so its better than just being given what they want.Freggles said:May offers parliament a vote on #peoplesvote
ERG and DUP confirm they will support a Labour VONC in response
Labour VONC wins
Election ensues
Labour gain power in exchange for a #peoplesvote between Permanent CU deal and Remain0 -
Though I think that the poll in the header shows that to be a much smaller effect.HYUFD said:
Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage partykle4 said:
He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.HYUFD said:If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party
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A package. ClubmedTheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it package - flights & accommodation - or separate?Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
My partner has an apartment in Rothesay which she rents out as a holiday let. About a 300% increase in bookings for 2019 over a normal Nov-Dec.Alistair said:
First two weeks of Jan are a huge surge in bookings.Foxy said:
Christmas to end March is when Brits book their weeks in the sun.Floater said:
May affect the #peoplesvote
Normally.0 -
Yes, but he has to pick a side at some point and given his members it will be remain or as remainy as he can get. He will be relying on Tories in chaos to make up for the hit if leavers are departing.HYUFD said:
Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage partykle4 said:
He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.HYUFD said:If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party
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That is absolute bollocksAlistair said:
Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).Floater said:
No Deal Brexit means no deal.
PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED
Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?
Personally my money is not on you.0 -
Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
The snow is normally better in February half-term - can you reschedule?Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.Benpointer said:
Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
On Topic Yeah RIght0
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Definitely preferable, because part of what you are paying them for is getting you to your holiday.Barnesian said:
A package. ClubmedTheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it package - flights & accommodation - or separate?Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:
You should check the T&Cs of your agreement with ClubMed and get what assurances you can from them, but I would personally be quite relaxed (this is assuming all travellers are British passport holders).
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I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.Floater said:
That is absolute bollocksAlistair said:
Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).Floater said:
No Deal Brexit means no deal.
PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED
Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?
Personally my money is not on you.
But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.0 -
It's not the planes flying - the industry is confident they will fly - but various practical consequences to look out for. For example, EU passengers can currently use e-gates - that's because they have the right to enter the UK under freedom of movement.Floater said:
That is absolute bollocksAlistair said:
Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).Floater said:
No Deal Brexit means no deal.
PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED
Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?
Personally my money is not on you.
That should end on 29 March, thereby pushing them into other lanes - but practically speaking it is difficult to imagine that happening.0 -
The sunlit uplands are a distant memory.
https://twitter.com/antmiddleton/status/1073661776724680704?s=210 -
It may that the main parties increasingly divide on Brexit lines, especially once May and Corbyn go who are both more pro EU and more Brexit respectively than their party membershipskle4 said:
Yes, but he has to pick a side at some point and given his members it will be remain or as remainy as he can get. He will be relying on Tories in chaos to make up for the hit if leavers are departing.HYUFD said:
Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage partykle4 said:
He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.HYUFD said:If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party
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Confusion is an interesting one.Benpointer said:
I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.Floater said:
That is absolute bollocksAlistair said:
Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).Floater said:
No Deal Brexit means no deal.
PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED
Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?
Personally my money is not on you.
But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
IATA is currently struggling with the idea that although people will still be able to fly, people might think they can't.
People get very stressed at airports and, for example, ignore signs and basically forget how to be a functioning human being (or at least some of them do).
So the answer to confusion is difficult to know.0 -
Hmmm... it seems ABTA themselves are not really helping the travel industry with comments like this:OblitusSumMe said:
I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.Benpointer said:
Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:
https://www.abta.com/industry-zone/reports-and-publications/brexit-getting-it-right-for-the-traveller
"Every part of the traveller’s journey – from booking through to support when on holiday – is affected by the UK’s membership of the EU.
Getting a good deal from the Brexit negotiations will be vital for the millions of people who travel between the UK and the EU each year."
So draw your own conclusions about what ABTA thinks No Deal means for travel to the EU.
Personally, I'm feeling rather grateful that our only planned overseas travel next year is a cruise to the Canaries, returning 24th March.0 -
I work for an insurance company and my desk is close to the underwriters. From what I've heard from casual overhearing (which may not reflect actual policy!), Brexit damage won't be covered unless you have specifically covered for it, because it's a scheduled event with a great deal of notice. If you are in a car crash you are covered, but if a car is heading towards you for two years then you aren't covered. Peeps have been informed of Brexit day for over two years.OblitusSumMe said:
I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.Benpointer said:
Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:0 -
i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to riskBarnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:
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For the majority who don't travel regularly airports (especially large ones) are extremely disorientating and therfore stressful places.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Confusion is an interesting one.Benpointer said:
I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.Floater said:
That is absolute bollocksAlistair said:
Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).Floater said:
No Deal Brexit means no deal.
PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED
Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?
Personally my money is not on you.
But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
IATA is currently struggling with the idea that although people will still be able to fly, people might think they can't.
People get very stressed at airports and, for example, ignore signs and basically forget how to be a functioning human being (or at least some of them do).
So the answer to confusion is difficult to know.0 -
But enough about brexit policy.Beverley_C said:
i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to riskBarnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:
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I think we need to take a step back here.viewcode said:
I work for an insurance company and my desk is close to the underwriters. From what I've heard from casual overhearing (which may not reflect actual policy!), Brexit damage won't be covered unless you have specifically covered for it, because it's a scheduled event with a great deal of notice. If you are in a car crash you are covered, but if a car is heading towards you for two years then you aren't covered. Peeps have been informed of Brexit day for over two years.OblitusSumMe said:
I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.Benpointer said:
Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?Barnesian said:
On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?TheWhiteRabbit said:
As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.AmpfieldAndy said:
Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.Scott_P said:
The people most at risk are those that book their flights and accommodation separately. Their airline will refund them the cost of their ticket, but will refute any liability in respect of the rest of your trip. It's those other costs that you want covered by travel insurance - and I would want cover that explicitly covered it. Insurance is an allocation exercise in risk, so it may be you have to pay more to get more.0 -
Perhaps they could swap. Corbyn is just the sort of leader the ERG are looking for.HYUFD said:
It may that the main parties increasingly divide on Brexit lines, especially once May and Corbyn go who are both more pro EU and more Brexit respectively than their party membershipskle4 said:
Yes, but he has to pick a side at some point and given his members it will be remain or as remainy as he can get. He will be relying on Tories in chaos to make up for the hit if leavers are departing.HYUFD said:
Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage partykle4 said:
He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.HYUFD said:If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party
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