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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?
    I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.
    I work for an insurance company and my desk is close to the underwriters. From what I've heard from casual overhearing (which may not reflect actual policy!), Brexit damage won't be covered unless you have specifically covered for it, because it's a scheduled event with a great deal of notice. If you are in a car crash you are covered, but if a car is heading towards you for two years then you aren't covered. Peeps have been informed of Brexit day for over two years.
    If there's one thing I've learned about bad outcomes it's that no one accepts they had adequate warning or consultation no matter how much of either took place.
  • Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.

    But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
    Confusion is an interesting one.

    IATA is currently struggling with the idea that although people will still be able to fly, people might think they can't.

    People get very stressed at airports and, for example, ignore signs and basically forget how to be a functioning human being (or at least some of them do).

    So the answer to confusion is difficult to know.
    For the majority who don't travel regularly airports (especially large ones) are extremely disorientating and therfore stressful places.
    Right - I wasn't criticising, merely observing. Indeed I currently work at an airport, and I have the same tendency to overlook things.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party

    He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.

    Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage party
    Yes, but he has to pick a side at some point and given his members it will be remain or as remainy as he can get. He will be relying on Tories in chaos to make up for the hit if leavers are departing.
    It may that the main parties increasingly divide on Brexit lines, especially once May and Corbyn go who are both more pro EU and more Brexit respectively than their party memberships
    Perhaps they could swap. Corbyn is just the sort of leader the ERG are looking for.
    They can discuss it as they walk through the division lobby together.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to risk
    Aren't such deposits usually non-refundable? If not, what purpose do they serve?
  • Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.

    But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
    According to Peter Lilly last night it was already agreed in November. I have absolutely no idea if he is right.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to risk
    But enough about brexit policy.
    what is that supposed to mean?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.

    But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
    Confusion is an interesting one.

    IATA is currently struggling with the idea that although people will still be able to fly, people might think they can't.

    People get very stressed at airports and, for example, ignore signs and basically forget how to be a functioning human being (or at least some of them do).

    So the answer to confusion is difficult to know.
    For the majority who don't travel regularly airports (especially large ones) are extremely disorientating and therfore stressful places.
    Right - I wasn't criticising, merely observing. Indeed I currently work at an airport, and I have the same tendency to overlook things.

    Sure - I was just echoing your point :smile:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to risk
    But enough about brexit policy.
    what is that supposed to mean?
    It was a clearly not good enough joke about brexit being so chaotic we should cancel it and metaphorically keep our deposit by staying in.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited December 2018

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.

    But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
    According to Peter Lilly last night it was already agreed in November. I have absolutely no idea if he is right.
    Flight Global has some interesting articles...

    On the one hand there's this:
    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-confirms-no-deal-brexit-would-limit-caa-certifica-452144/

    But fear not "there is 'no way' that flights between the UK and mainland Europe will be grounded after Brexit" according to (oh dear) Chris Grayling...
    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-dismisses-threat-of-grounded-flights-after-brexit-453077/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Interesting that Theresa's own Chief of staff has come round to a #peoplesvote and that Lidington is negotiating with Labour over it. May does look increasingly isolated.

    https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1074068565857366016?s=19
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    Foxy said:

    Interesting that Theresa's own Chief of staff has come round to a #peoplesvote and that Lidington is negotiating with Labour over it. May does look increasingly isolated

    The idea that this is going on without May’s consent seems far fetched.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,290
    For this in the need some light relief from Brexit, I am binge watching the first series of Counterpart (with the great J K Simmons).
    Very good indeed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.

    But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
    According to Peter Lilly last night it was already agreed in November. I have absolutely no idea if he is right.
    Flight Global has some interesting articles...

    On the one hand there's this:
    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-confirms-no-deal-brexit-would-limit-caa-certifica-452144/

    But fear not "there is 'no way' that flights between the UK and mainland Europe will be grounded after Brexit" according to (oh dear) Chris Grayling...
    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-dismisses-threat-of-grounded-flights-after-brexit-453077/
    In reality "No Deal" requires quite a few mini Deals, so the difference between hostile No Deal, and prepared amicable No Deal is quite a gulf.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    I know we get the front pages posted on here and on #tomorrowspaperstoday but is there a digest of newspaper editorials anywhere? It woudl be interesting to know what the Times & ST editorials are saying at the moment for example.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    Interesting that Theresa's own Chief of staff has come round to a #peoplesvote and that Lidington is negotiating with Labour over it. May does look increasingly isolated

    The idea that this is going on without May’s consent seems far fetched.
    I dunno. It maybe that we have reached the point where she is in office but not in power.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to risk
    But enough about brexit policy.
    what is that supposed to mean?
    It was a clearly not good enough joke about brexit being so chaotic we should cancel it and metaphorically keep our deposit by staying in.
    It wasn't that bad - I got it on a re-read.

    But maybe Beverley is a bit sensitive because she has had some ignorant and unwarranted attacks and recent weeks from some quarters.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to risk
    But enough about brexit policy.
    what is that supposed to mean?
    It was a clearly not good enough joke about brexit being so chaotic we should cancel it and metaphorically keep our deposit by staying in.
    It wasn't that bad - I got it on a re-read.

    But maybe Beverley is a bit sensitive because she has had some ignorant and unwarranted attacks and recent weeks from some quarters.
    No. I just had no idea what it meant.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    i would cancel and get the deposit back. Until the uncertainty is removed, there are no guarantees and it is a lot of money to risk
    But enough about brexit policy.
    what is that supposed to mean?
    It was a clearly not good enough joke about brexit being so chaotic we should cancel it and metaphorically keep our deposit by staying in.
    It wasn't that bad - I got it on a re-read.

    But maybe Beverley is a bit sensitive because she has had some ignorant and unwarranted attacks and recent weeks from some quarters.
    No. I just had no idea what it meant.
    Ok
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Foxy said:

    Interesting that Theresa's own Chief of staff has come round to a #peoplesvote and that Lidington is negotiating with Labour over it. May does look increasingly isolated

    The idea that this is going on without May’s consent seems far fetched.
    You retain faith in her ability to control events . Last week she was winning MV by 150. If she does ,it will be by her opponents incompetence rather than any strategy .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If true this shows how reliant the 2017 Labour vote was for Remainers and if Corbyn does not take any action to try and reverse Brexit or at least stay in the single market the way could be open for a new SDP party

    He will. Whatever his preferences he needs the party to do anything he wants, he must give them this.

    Though that also risks working class Leavers moving to the Tories or UKIP or the new Farage party
    Yes, but he has to pick a side at some point and given his members it will be remain or as remainy as he can get. He will be relying on Tories in chaos to make up for the hit if leavers are departing.
    It may that the main parties increasingly divide on Brexit lines, especially once May and Corbyn go who are both more pro EU and more Brexit respectively than their party memberships
    Perhaps they could swap. Corbyn is just the sort of leader the ERG are looking for.
    Well both oppose May's Deal and a second EU referendum
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting that Theresa's own Chief of staff has come round to a #peoplesvote and that Lidington is negotiating with Labour over it. May does look increasingly isolated

    The idea that this is going on without May’s consent seems far fetched.
    You retain faith in her ability to control events . Last week she was winning MV by 150. If she does ,it will be by her opponents incompetence rather than any strategy .
    My suggestion that she would win the MV by 150 was predicated on the idea she would back a second referendum before the vote. That could still be what happens.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting that Theresa's own Chief of staff has come round to a #peoplesvote and that Lidington is negotiating with Labour over it. May does look increasingly isolated

    The idea that this is going on without May’s consent seems far fetched.
    You retain faith in her ability to control events . Last week she was winning MV by 150. If she does ,it will be by her opponents incompetence rather than any strategy .
    My suggestion that she would win the MV by 150 was predicated on the idea she would back a second referendum before the vote. That could still be what happens.
    Which may yet come to pass .But, it will be by accident rather than design .
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    That is absolute bollocks

    PLANES WILL NOT BE GROUNDED

    Unless various international bodies are wrong and you know better?

    Personally my money is not on you.
    I agree that planes will probably not be grounded in the event of No Deal - some interim arrangement will be agreed.

    But border controls (and confusion about border controls) are likely to cause chaos. It only takes a small disruption to bring large airports to an effectice halt.
    According to Peter Lilly last night it was already agreed in November. I have absolutely no idea if he is right.
    Flight Global has some interesting articles...

    On the one hand there's this:
    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-confirms-no-deal-brexit-would-limit-caa-certifica-452144/

    But fear not "there is 'no way' that flights between the UK and mainland Europe will be grounded after Brexit" according to (oh dear) Chris Grayling...
    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-dismisses-threat-of-grounded-flights-after-brexit-453077/
    As I understand it from various sources (including international aviation bodies) planes will be able to fly.

    This was debunked ages ago.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Incidentally - I keep on being told over the last week or so that this site is not secure - what has changed?

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2018
    Floater said:

    Incidentally - I keep on being told over the last week or so that this site is not secure - what has changed?

    I guess you're using chrome? Google added a thing to produce that message for any site that doesn't default to an encrypted connection (HTTPS). Doesn't really matter with pb, but for anything private it does.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Coming back to the thread, Labour should be concerned that despite the worst Tory infighting in living memory, they have not pulled ahead in any meaningful polling I note that Jeremy C approaches 70 in Spring 2019....the idea that a Gen Election (if it happened in 2019) would sweep him to power convincingly doesnt ring true. The Tories may be in a dreadful state, but that does not automatically translate into a Labour victory, Labour need to raise their game and very fast
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Coming back to the thread, Labour should be concerned that despite the worst Tory infighting in living memory, they have not pulled ahead in any meaningful polling I note that Jeremy C approaches 70 in Spring 2019....the idea that a Gen Election (if it happened in 2019) would sweep him to power convincingly doesnt ring true. The Tories may be in a dreadful state, but that does not automatically translate into a Labour victory, Labour need to raise their game and very fast

    Labour should retake the true lead if/when May announces a second referendum.
  • Don't go on holiday warning?

    Has OMG, Mike, been told?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139

    Don't go on holiday warning?

    Has OMG, Mike, been told?
    On Brexit day isn't Mike scheduled to be flying over Icelandic volcanoes via UK ATC whilst standing in a tin bath in a thunderstorm screaming "ALL LIGHTNING GODS ARE B******S!"

    I mean...what could possibly go wrong? :)
  • Hunt trying to outflank Javid for the wingnut vote. Sad.

    That's exactly what's happening. It would be nice to think that own be their view anyway outside of personal ambition. I doubt it.
  • Iowa poll by Selzer, the golden standard of Iowa polling:

    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/12/16/iowa-poll-caucuses-2020-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-beto-orourke-elizabeth-warren-register-cnn-democrat/2312541002/

    Same story as elsewhere: Biden way out ahead, Bernie second but way, way behind his 2016 score, Beto in the running but not close, absolutely no validation for the betting markets' theory that Kamala Harris, who ticks lots of boxes but is one of the dullest politicians in the world, could be in the race.

    KLOBUCHAR not yet winning.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    edited December 2018

    Iowa poll by Selzer, the golden standard of Iowa polling:

    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/12/16/iowa-poll-caucuses-2020-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-beto-orourke-elizabeth-warren-register-cnn-democrat/2312541002/

    Same story as elsewhere: Biden way out ahead, Bernie second but way, way behind his 2016 score, Beto in the running but not close, absolutely no validation for the betting markets' theory that Kamala Harris, who ticks lots of boxes but is one of the dullest politicians in the world, could be in the race.

    KLOBUCHAR not yet winning.

    Experience will beat Trump? Rather than some new, fresh voice?

    I am sceptical...

    Much as I would like Biden to run.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Looks like I do have one referendum bet open with Hills:

    Single To Win

    No @2/9
    Mon 22:00 - Scottish Independence Specials - Will There Be Another Independence Referendum Before The End Of 2020?
    Open

    Stake: £138.82
  • On Biden, do the markets know something I don't? I know there's name recognition in the polling and he has some #MeToo issues but he may well run, he's polling miles out in front of everyone else, he's easily the most experienced candidate, would do great against Trump, he's exactly the kind of guy the Dems would pick if they want to win which they do. 10/1 seems like a steal, no???

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

    I mean FFS you can only get 14/1 on KLOBUCHAR
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139

    Iowa poll by Selzer, the golden standard of Iowa polling:

    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/12/16/iowa-poll-caucuses-2020-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-beto-orourke-elizabeth-warren-register-cnn-democrat/2312541002/

    Same story as elsewhere: Biden way out ahead, Bernie second but way, way behind his 2016 score, Beto in the running but not close, absolutely no validation for the betting markets' theory that Kamala Harris, who ticks lots of boxes but is one of the dullest politicians in the world, could be in the race.

    KLOBUCHAR not yet winning.

    Experience will beat Trump? Rather than some new, fresh voice?

    I am sceptical...

    Much as I would like Biden to run.
    I don't know about Biden. There are too many examples on YouTube of him getting creepy and handsy with women. If it wasn't for Trump breaking all the rules I'd think Biden would be automatically rejected.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    AndyJS said:

    "Calls for Royal Mail to rethink design of religious stamps as sales slump"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/15/calls-royal-mail-rethink-design-religious-stamps-sales-slump/

    I was going to send you an invoice, but I've just realised that I'd need to send it in an envelope with a religiously themed stamp, so I guess I'll starve instead.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited December 2018

    Iowa poll by Selzer, the golden standard of Iowa polling:

    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/12/16/iowa-poll-caucuses-2020-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-beto-orourke-elizabeth-warren-register-cnn-democrat/2312541002/

    Same story as elsewhere: Biden way out ahead, Bernie second but way, way behind his 2016 score, Beto in the running but not close, absolutely no validation for the betting markets' theory that Kamala Harris, who ticks lots of boxes but is one of the dullest politicians in the world, could be in the race.

    KLOBUCHAR not yet winning.

    Experience will beat Trump? Rather than some new, fresh voice?

    I am sceptical...

    Much as I would like Biden to run.
    I think so. Trump has and has always had extremely shitty favourability, has a somewhat but not entirely deflated base, and may well have broken the economy. However he has a clear history of success with audacious attack memes. The obvious way to run against him is:

    * Run someone who has good favourability, ie not Hillary
    * Run someone who is good at communicating with the swing voters in states you narrowly lost
    * Run someone who is already known to the voters and will be harder for him to define
    * Avoid taking other unnecessary risks, ie don't hope you get lucky with one of the least experienced candidates in history (Beto) or an experiment in seeing whether Americans will go with a self-defined Socialist (Bernie)
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?
    I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.
    I work for an insurance company and my desk is close to the underwriters. From what I've heard from casual overhearing (which may not reflect actual policy!), Brexit damage won't be covered unless you have specifically covered for it, because it's a scheduled event with a great deal of notice. If you are in a car crash you are covered, but if a car is heading towards you for two years then you aren't covered. Peeps have been informed of Brexit day for over two years.
    If there's one thing I've learned about bad outcomes it's that no one accepts they had adequate warning or consultation no matter how much of either took place.
    Now you tell us.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Pay

    Life’s too short to worry about shit you can’t control
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    Easyjet CEO disagrees with you

    https://www.itv.com/news/2018-11-20/easyjet-ceo-johan-lundgren-confident-flights-will-continue-in-a-no-deal-brexit/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    On Biden, do the markets know something I don't? I know there's name recognition in the polling and he has some #MeToo issues but he may well run, he's polling miles out in front of everyone else, he's easily the most experienced candidate, would do great against Trump, he's exactly the kind of guy the Dems would pick if they want to win which they do. 10/1 seems like a steal, no???

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

    I mean FFS you can only get 14/1 on KLOBUCHAR

    Any idea why Pocahontas has drifted to 38 on Betfair for the presidency ? Hills allowed me £5 at 20-1 for Biden (POTUS). The implied odds for Democrats should probably be odds on, particularly for Biden.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2018
    Odd situation in Sweden. 82.5% didn't vote for the populist Sweden Democrats at the recent election, yet the MPs representing that large majority don't seem to be able to get their act together to form a government. The upshot might be another election at which the populists could increase their support.

    https://www.ft.com/content/2f8cd3ce-ff80-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Calls for Royal Mail to rethink design of religious stamps as sales slump"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/15/calls-royal-mail-rethink-design-religious-stamps-sales-slump/

    I was going to send you an invoice, but I've just realised that I'd need to send it in an envelope with a religiously themed stamp, so I guess I'll starve instead.
    +1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    Too late - already booked, although fortunately to S America rather than Europe.
    As long as you're a UK citizen, you should be fine. Most flights should be unaffected - it's Border Control that is likely to be a pain point. That being said, if it's non-essential travel, perhaps you shouldn't risk being in the 10%.
    On January 8th I'm down to pay £7K for a skiing holiday for my grandchildren and myself in France travelling on 7th April. I've paid a £1K deposit. Should I pay or cancel?
    Assuming you are ABTA protected you should be ok shouldn't you? Failing that, what about your travel insurance?
    I've heard it argued that Brexit won't be covered because it will come under disruption caused by government action, so Force Majeure.
    I work for an insurance company and my desk is close to the underwriters. From what I've heard from casual overhearing (which may not reflect actual policy!), Brexit damage won't be covered unless you have specifically covered for it, because it's a scheduled event with a great deal of notice. If you are in a car crash you are covered, but if a car is heading towards you for two years then you aren't covered. Peeps have been informed of Brexit day for over two years.
    If there's one thing I've learned about bad outcomes it's that no one accepts they had adequate warning or consultation no matter how much of either took place.
    Ah yes - See Meeks and the WASPIs....

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/10/28/the-persistence-of-lack-of-memory-how-the-state-retirement-age-was-changed-and-communicated/
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677


    * Run someone who is already known to the voters and will be harder for him to define

    Kolubchar does well on this very important point as she has already been anointed as part of the political establishment by being impersonated on SNL.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Floater said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    I feared this was coming. Good job I don't work for a UK travel industry company.... Oh.
    I believe the EU has said that holiday travel will still be ok.

    Good job there are no EU countries whose economies are supported by tourism.......
    Not if there aren't any planes flying because we have no aviation deal(s).

    No Deal Brexit means no deal.
    Easyjet CEO disagrees with you

    https://www.itv.com/news/2018-11-20/easyjet-ceo-johan-lundgren-confident-flights-will-continue-in-a-no-deal-brexit/
    And Ryanair CEO disagress with Easyjet.
This discussion has been closed.