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MrJones said:

If the bible had bits in it about executing apostates would the guardian be demanding Christian leaders denounce it?

“If a man has a stubborn and rebellious son who will not obey the voice of his father or the voice of his mother, and, though they discipline him, will not listen to them, then his father and his mother shall take hold of him and bring him out to the elders of his city at the gate of the place where he lives, and they shall say to the elders of his city, ‘This our son is stubborn and rebellious; he will not obey our voice; he is a glutton and a drunkard.’ Then all the men of the city shall stone him to death with stones. So you shall purge the evil from your midst, and all Israel shall hear, and fear. "

got toned down a bit for the ASBO policy.

anhyoo, where do we sign?

anotherDave said:

Mick_Pork said:

isam said:

Mick_Pork said:

isam said:

Mick_Pork said:

Good to see some are taking Batten as seriously as he deserves.

Tom Darnell ‏@tomdarns 27m

I denounce his jacket. “Ukip MEP G.Batten wants Brit Muslims to denounce parts of Qur'an - http://huff.to/1fN7Swp pic.twitter.com/vkgMLqFn1M”

Wonder how this will affect ukip vi polling.

It won't it will still continue to rise for May then drop again afterwards.
Come the GE this stuff will actually hurt but for now it's all about the EU elections and immigration.

Still slightly puzzling Kipper VI hasn't yet saw the start of the kind of rise for last Feb, considering the Bulgarian and Romanian exodus was supposed to be so good for Farage, but we'll wait to see from other pollsters as YouGov has a habit of darting about unpredictably.

I don't think any of the pollsters have got a handle on how to weight/prompt for ukip. Every actual election seems to be a good result for them & that's what really matters

There's no significant difference in their handling from last Feb when we started to see a sharp kipper rise. Little point pretending that rise is not a necessary component of a good kipper showing for the EU elections. Kipper VI will also be most crucial for the GE since it's going to be dominated by the economy and the leaders debates in the campaign.

An extrapolation from the results of council by-elections puts UKIP on 17%.

An extrapolation which, as it happens, is fairly close to the all polls average for the kipper VI at that time.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

So I'd say if we split the difference then 16% would seem to be a reasonable assumption.
You can also see just how high some of the polling put the kippers on for May so obviously it's not just underestimates when we are dealing with kipper polling.

The all polls average is invaluable because you can see the over and under while the average trend line eliminates irregularities and outliers such as the bizarre YouGov blip last week.

I still see nothing to sway me from my thinking that the kippers will be in the 8-10% range for the GE.

One or two MPs? Maybe. Depends on the mood music coming from kipper high command as by then they had better be absolutely certain they have finally rid themselves of all the BNP infiltrators and other extremists who have tried to jump on the kipper bandwagon.

We can at least be certain the Cameroons who think they will get the kippers down to below 5% and back to their 2010 levels just by wishing it are living in a world of make believe.

NickPalmer said:

Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of Batten's statement, it might simultaneously make many non-UKIP voters feel he's OTT while UKIP voters say hey, no problem. UKIP loses by lack of publicity, so they need a steady trickle of statements that are just controversial enough to make the news but not so weird as to restore the fruitcake image. IMO Batten's piece goes too near fruitcakism for UKIP's good health - he could have got away with just calling for opposition to jihads, but the stuff about a ban on mosques and inoperative Koran texts will be seen as a bit far out. But we'll see. It'd be interesting to hear what Richard Tyndall, who seems to me convincingly non-fruitcake, thinks of it.

My birthday today, so let's have an 11-point Labour lead, eh?

Happy Birthday, Nick!

I think it doesn't do any harm to UKIP at all, at least in the short term. Wonder what Farage really thinks. Seems he might lose the more libertarian party members eventually?

dugarbandier said:

NickPalmer said:

Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of Batten's statement, it might simultaneously make many non-UKIP voters feel he's OTT while UKIP voters say hey, no problem. UKIP loses by lack of publicity, so they need a steady trickle of statements that are just controversial enough to make the news but not so weird as to restore the fruitcake image. IMO Batten's piece goes too near fruitcakism for UKIP's good health - he could have got away with just calling for opposition to jihads, but the stuff about a ban on mosques and inoperative Koran texts will be seen as a bit far out. But we'll see. It'd be interesting to hear what Richard Tyndall, who seems to me convincingly non-fruitcake, thinks of it.

My birthday today, so let's have an 11-point Labour lead, eh?

Happy Birthday, Nick!

I think it doesn't do any harm to UKIP at all, at least in the short term.

Correct. The EU elections will be all about immigration and the EU. Longer term it's extremely problematic for them.

anotherDave said:

Mick_Pork said:

anotherDave said:

Mick_Pork said:

isam said:

Mick_Pork said:

isam said:

Mick_Pork said:

Good to see some are taking Batten as seriously as he deserves.

Tom Darnell ‏@tomdarns 27m

I denounce his jacket. “Ukip MEP G.Batten wants Brit Muslims to denounce parts of Qur'an - http://huff.to/1fN7Swp pic.twitter.com/vkgMLqFn1M”

Wonder how this will affect ukip vi polling.

It won't it will still continue to rise for May then drop again afterwards.
Come the GE this stuff will actually hurt but for now it's all about the EU elections and immigration.

Still slightly puzzling Kipper VI hasn't yet saw the start of the kind of rise for last Feb, considering the Bulgarian and Romanian exodus was supposed to be so good for Farage, but we'll wait to see from other pollsters as YouGov has a habit of darting about unpredictably.

I don't think any of the pollsters have got a handle on how to weight/prompt for ukip. Every actual election seems to be a good result for them & that's what really matters

There's no significant difference in their handling from last Feb when we started to see a sharp kipper rise. Little point pretending that rise is not a necessary component of a good kipper showing for the EU elections. Kipper VI will also be most crucial for the GE since it's going to be dominated by the economy and the leaders debates in the campaign.

An extrapolation from the results of council by-elections puts UKIP on 17%.

One or two MPs?

I think this years May local election results will give us a pretty clear picture of UKIP's 2015 prospects. I expect them to be pretty up front about which seats they intend to target too.


I did say maybe and I also pointed out they had better be certain they have rid themselves of the BNP and other extremists who have jumped on the kipper bandwagon. Something which Farage himself said he would be cracking down on since more local representation makes it far more than a theoretical danger.

Naming those seats straight after May? Perhaps. Though I would have thought Farage would ride out the good May publicity for as long as he can then at the last possible and practical moment name the big target seats in a flourish of yet more publicity.

He's also not naming them yet to terrify as many tories in marginal seats as possible remember. A tactic that certainly seems to be working a treat when you see the headless chickens running frantically about the commons making poor Cammie's life a misery.

Mick_Pork said:

anotherDave said:

Mick_Pork said:

anotherDave said:

Mick_Pork said:

isam said:

Mick_Pork said:

isam said:

Mick_Pork said:

Good to see some are taking Batten as seriously as he deserves.

Tom Darnell ‏@tomdarns 27m

I denounce his jacket. “Ukip MEP G.Batten wants Brit Muslims to denounce parts of Qur'an - http://huff.to/1fN7Swp pic.twitter.com/vkgMLqFn1M”

Wonder how this will affect ukip vi polling.

It won't it will still continue to rise for May then drop again afterwards.
Come the GE this stuff will actually hurt but for now it's all about the EU elections and immigration.

Still slightly puzzling Kipper VI hasn't yet saw the start of the kind of rise for last Feb, considering the Bulgarian and Romanian exodus was supposed to be so good for Farage, but we'll wait to see from other pollsters as YouGov has a habit of darting about unpredictably.

I don't think any of the pollsters have got a handle on how to weight/prompt for ukip. Every actual election seems to be a good result for them & that's what really matters

There's no significant difference in their handling from last Feb when we started to see a sharp kipper rise. Little point pretending that rise is not a necessary component of a good kipper showing for the EU elections. Kipper VI will also be most crucial for the GE since it's going to be dominated by the economy and the leaders debates in the campaign.

An extrapolation from the results of council by-elections puts UKIP on 17%.

One or two MPs?

I think this years May local election results will give us a pretty clear picture of UKIP's 2015 prospects. I expect them to be pretty up front about which seats they intend to target too.

Naming those seats straight after May? Perhaps. Though I would have thought Farage would ride out the good May publicity for as long as he can then at the last possible and practical moment name the big target seats.

He's also not naming them yet to terrify as many tories in marginal seats as possible remember. A tactic that certainly seems to be working a treat when you see the headless chickens running frantically about the commons making poor Cammie's life a misery.It'll be obvious. Last year The Sun paid Survation to crunch the numbers.

http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/

If they don't do the same this year, AndyJS or someone else will be on the case and they'll publish them online.

Yes, it is perfectly reasonable for a Christian to denounce bits of the Bible. More importantly: has any Christan or Jew tried to stone a rebellious son recently? Stonings are part of the law in a number of Islamic countries, as are death sentences for apostasy and homosexuality or female adultery.

People who drag up obscure parts of the Bible that are considered superseded by all Christian Churches in defence of the current violence so prevalent in Islamic societies need to get real.


n

MrJones said:

dugarbandier said:

MrJones said:

If the bible had bits in it about executing apostates would the guardian be demanding Christian leaders denounce it?

“If a man has a stubborn and rebellious son who will not obey the voice of his father or the voice of his mother, and, though they discipline him, will not listen to them, then his father and his mother shall take hold of him and bring him out to the elders of his city at the gate of the place where he lives, and they shall say to the elders of his city, ‘This our son is stubborn and rebellious; he will not obey our voice; he is a glutton and a drunkard.’ Then all the men of the city shall stone him to death with stones. So you shall purge the evil from your midst, and all Israel shall hear, and fear. "

got toned down a bit for the ASBO policy.

anhyoo, where do we sign?

So you're proving my point then - it's okay to denounce bits of the bible?

The rebellious sons nowadays choose to get stoned.

Yesterday was manufacturing PMI day; today is services PMI day.

Leading us off is Ireland, where the number was a (marginally lower, but still extremely high) 61.5. Sweden was also very positive (although also slightly below December) 55.9.

Later today, we have Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the UK. Expectations are for France and Italy to continue to show very weak numbers (48.6 and 48.9, respectively), while Germany is expected to be showing continued modest GDP growth (53.6), Spain is forecast to show further evidence of an accelerating recovery (55.0), and the UK is expected to be the best of the major economies (59.0).

Actually Nick Palmer is to blame for the thread non appearance.

He announced down thread that it's his birthday today and Mike, TSE and all the thread writers have rushed round to Broxtowe to give him the bumps !!

Good morning, everyone.

McNish's first thoughts on the first test:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26036140

The key point is that reliability trumps pace. I have vague memories of Raikkonen's McLaren days, where his car was fast but broke so often he never got a title with them. Or of 2012, when McLaren (again) had the fastest car overall through the season, but numerous reliability failings meant it went down to Vettel or Alonso.

There does seem to be an astonishing ignorance of Christianity from some members of PB. I'd assumed they were mostly tongue in cheek, but now, I'm not so sure. For example, the relationship between the Old and New Testaments seems to be a mystery for many people. But ignorance doesn't inhibit pontification.

There are over a billion Christians, and a few will be odd. If 100,000 were odd, that would still be only 0.01%, whereas in any political party, I'd suggest the odd ones comprise more than 10%..

And remember, Christians are meant to go out and do good things without being too judgemental. Not like politicians, who demand that other people do things that they consider to be good (and often are not).

You're welcome to criticise Christianity, but at least have a vague knowledge of what you're talking about.

Thanks for the good wishes. I'm in Brussels, meeting Eurocrats - some of us KNOW how to have a good time.

NickPalmer said:

Thanks for the good wishes. I'm in Brussels, meeting Eurocrats - some of us KNOW how to have a good time.

Did you travel there via the gravy train ?

foxinsoxuk said:

Yes, it is perfectly reasonable for a Christian to denounce bits of the Bible. More importantly: has any Christan or Jew tried to stone a rebellious son recently? Stonings are part of the law in a number of Islamic countries, as are death sentences for apostasy and homosexuality or female adultery.

People who drag up obscure parts of the Bible that are considered superseded by all Christian Churches in defence of the current violence so prevalent in Islamic societies need to get real.


n

MrJones said:

dugarbandier said:

MrJones said:

If the bible had bits in it about executing apostates would the guardian be demanding Christian leaders denounce it?

“If a man has a stubborn and rebellious son who will not obey the voice of his father or the voice of his mother, and, though they discipline him, will not listen to them, then his father and his mother shall take hold of him and bring him out to the elders of his city at the gate of the place where he lives, and they shall say to the elders of his city, ‘This our son is stubborn and rebellious; he will not obey our voice; he is a glutton and a drunkard.’ Then all the men of the city shall stone him to death with stones. So you shall purge the evil from your midst, and all Israel shall hear, and fear. "

got toned down a bit for the ASBO policy.

anhyoo, where do we sign?

So you're proving my point then - it's okay to denounce bits of the bible?

I'm not sure such verses have been superseded. The verses are still canon, and is still relevant to religious thinking - they have not been written out of modern versions of the bible. It is the underlying message and not the exact words. I.e. a son should obey a father might well be religious thinking, it's just that the stoning bit is seen as being antiquated by most.

Interpretation of religious texts is massively important, and where many problems and conflicts occur.

Then again, Christianity in particular is an artificial construct - many of the New Testament apocrypha and gnostic texts could have been included if different decisions had been made. Indeed, some Christian sects have bibles containing different texts.

CD13 said:

There does seem to be an astonishing ignorance of Christianity from some members of PB. I'd assumed they were mostly tongue in cheek, but now, I'm not so sure. For example, the relationship between the Old and New Testaments seems to be a mystery for many people. But ignorance doesn't inhibit pontification.

There are over a billion Christians, and a few will be odd. If 100,000 were odd, that would still be only 0.01%, whereas in any political party, I'd suggest the odd ones comprise more than 10%..

And remember, Christians are meant to go out and do good things without being too judgemental. Not like politicians, who demand that other people do things that they consider to be good (and often are not).

You're welcome to criticise Christianity, but at least have a vague knowledge of what you're talking about.

Yep, I guess you are referring to the quote of Deuteronomy 21, 18 to 21 below. Scrutinising the fine points of any religion can be a game, and even edifying. In the case of the Bible the underlying point (I think) is that the New Testament preaches forgiveness, but not weakness---the prodigal son's tale for instance. This was revolutionary in the Roman world, and is unfortunately is also very often today.