politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financ
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financial markets collapse
While Mrs May is still in post and the EU are not going to budge on the terms of the deal then it looks as though the two big options remaining are a hard Brexit on March 29th or else a new referendum being announced beforehand.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Even if the effect is marginal it's common sense.
Or in a word 'No'.
Perhaps unfortunate, it might actually have forced the HoC to stop playing silly buggers.
The decision is now in Parliament's hand and they will have to make a decision and probably be forced into making one...
How frictionless do we want trade with the EU to be and what freedoms are we prepared to give up to get it?
Don't blame her, blame the Tories for bottling out of getting rid of her.
No Deal is the default without a change in the law. It;s not a risk it is an inevitability.
It's not too late though - 200 Con MPs can see her offski - rules or not.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1073585421089693696
There will no second referendum and Parliament won’t revoke A 50.
I can't see it without the government being brought down first.
If they do they'll have to immediately form a coalition or confidence and supply agreement with the Tories or trigger an early election. Which will make a mockery of any claims of independence.
"Leave" was the unconditional decision of the electorate. All of the shenanigans about the electorate not knowing what it was voting for is not just grossly condescending but arrant nonsense – what’s not to know about leaving? The electorate voted for Hard Brexit. Everything happening now is about Remainers trying to get as close to remaining as they can, with actual physical remaining still to go for by whatever means. Ironically, those shenanigans look like they might achieve that which their heart least desires.
May is clearly aiming for a clean Brexit with a WTO deal.
That's why she keeps saying Bexit means Brexit.
Sounds like a train we'd be wise to be on, to me. Considering the alternative.
I am not even convinced that if a referendum were to be held on deal vs not deal, Parliament would alter no deal to Remain.
https://twitter.com/Jeremyaudouard/status/1073512051870445569
So it is now coming down to a game of chicken - will Remainers blink and support her deal before 29th March?
“He directed me to make the payments. He directed me to become involved in these matters,” Michael Cohen, who was sentenced to three years in prison this week over crimes committed while working for Trump, told ABC News in an interview aired on Friday.
No-one can stop the Government from introducing such a bill. On a 3-line whip, I would expect no more than 10 Tory MPs to support a Remain amendment. I would expect at least 20 Labour MPs to abstain or vote against a Remain amendment. Therefore, it will pass.
Arguments about the Electoral Commission guidance etc are not fundamental roadblocks. They can all be overridden in the Act to legislate for the referendum.
The awkward squad now includes Poland, Hungary, and Italy, perhaps Austria, and perhaps France in the future. The UK would be another member.
In France it did, but in Greece it made no difference.
If we were in a situation where there had been no effort made to enact the referendum result, it was still a short time since then, and there was any prospect of one side holding a third, fourth, fifth, or whatever number referendum until the "right" result was achieved, I'd be sympathetic.
None of those is true.
It's been longer than the interval between the last two General Elections, all we've seemed to do since 2016 has been bloody Brexiting (ignoring the paranoia about May deliberately intending to derail Brexit and implicitly being willing to sacrifice the Conservative Party to do so), and if a referendum results in "Sign the Deal", it's damned well over. Once the Withdrawal Agreement is signed, we cease to be an EU member.
So what's the route to "voting until we give the right answer" if the Deal wins? If the Deal wins, It's over and out
The Leavers can make a decent case - and I'd be sympathetic to a four-way referendum after the Deal is signed, to be honest, as well - but this line that implies that a win for the Deal would still be ignored afterwards is such steaming dogshite that it damages the case.
If we have a referendum on the result, it'd be a good three years after the original one, with all the work being completed, but it looks pretty shitty compared to all the promises thanks to the campaign being such as to be seemingly designed to win the battle while losing the war, due to promising so much mutually inconsistent stuff (well done, Dominic Cummings - you've poisoned your own well, and it looks very much to me like we're going to leave the EU while the people overall actually want us to stay in, damaged us economically for the long term, and divided the country in such a way that we still can't see a prospect of it healing. And he thinks he's some kind of genius?). The vote wasn't ignored, it was never ignored, it was never going to be ignored, and we'll be reaping the crop from it whatever happens for bloody ages.
I've tried to be as objective as possible (seeing that I was originally pro-Leave before the campaign, it's actually still a default position for me), but I'm sick and tired of tripe like this coming up.
It's always a question as to which is the stronger force: politics or economics*.
* In the long run, it's always economics.
It’s quite possible that, following a brief period of adjustment and with the right government in place, no-deal Brexit could be the firing of the starting gun on a decade of economic growth. The EU are absolutely terrified of that happening.
But then you say "The electorate voted for Hard Brexit". Nothing like kidding yourself. "What’s not to know about leaving?" A damned lot, even at this stage.
https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1073577363256922112