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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financ

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,284
    matt said:

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sandpit said:



    Some industries are quickly going to start suffering badly from the uncertainty, such as summer holiday bookings to Spain and Greece that usually get made in January and February.

    Yes - we are off to the USA for the family holiday next year.
    Not if we crash over the cliff edge and take the Clear Skies agreement with us you aren't.
    I too have an American trip planned next year but am confident the Clear Skies agreement won't be a problem.
    Open Skies. Although North Atlantic ATC May be a problem....
    Not if you are going by boat ;)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    We need pressure on Labour to abstain to allow pasage of the deal, that is least damaging and possibly acievable option.

    Yep - the DUP has even more or less promised a general election at the end of it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Theresa May’s Allies Are Pushing For A Second Referendum To Crush A Brexiteer “Suicide Squad”

    The PM comes home from Brussels to find hardcore Brexiteers threatening to bring down her government, cabinet ministers being urged to oust her, and members of her top team preparing for a “people’s vote”.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/theresa-mays-allies-second-referendum-brexiteer-suicide

    "Several cabinet ministers are said to be privately concerned that the promises May made to the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers on Wednesday, to secure legally binding guarantees on the backstop and win over Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, are a fantasy."

    Wasn't it Tuesday, not Wednesday? It's been a long week, but.....
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,987
    IanB2 said:

    matt said:

    Donny43 said:

    Fenster said:

    murali_s said:

    We are in a bind! All self inflicted sadly...

    The Tories and David Cameron in particular should pay a huge price for taking us to this position.

    I will always have sympathy for Cameron because the ERG are a pain in the arse and the 2012-2015 period looked extremely precarious for the Tories with UKIP seemingly on the march. Offering a referendum and campaigning to stay in the EU was his only option from a Tory point of view. If he hadn't done it then UKIP would've stolen his right flank and Labour would've likely won enough marginals to shade the 2015 GE.

    With hindsight, the best thing (from a centre-ground Tory point of view) that could've happened was for the Lib Dems to retain their seats and enter into another coalition on the agreement that the referendum be scrapped.

    From a Labour (and a countrywide) point of view, we would've been better off with Miliband winning.

    But I still think the arc towards a referendum was inevitable. Whether anyone likes it or not our EU membership was a subject which needed to be tackled at some point.
    ERG as is didn't exist until 2016. It was Tory voters moving to UKIP that caused Cameron to offer the referendum.

    He did have a better option, though: decide what sort of Leave to put on the ballot paper and then stay out of the campaign.
    Perhaps formally but “the bastards” were always there. A lot of crossover to the freak show that did their best to destroy the Major administration. Wilfully destructive with nothing positive to say and skilled only at responsibility avoidance.
    IDS is the remarkable one. He went from idiot rebel to idiot leader and now he is back as a rebel he appears to have learned absolutely nothing from his journey.
    Idiots rarely do.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Theresa May’s Allies Are Pushing For A Second Referendum To Crush A Brexiteer “Suicide Squad”

    The PM comes home from Brussels to find hardcore Brexiteers threatening to bring down her government, cabinet ministers being urged to oust her, and members of her top team preparing for a “people’s vote”.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/theresa-mays-allies-second-referendum-brexiteer-suicide

    "Several cabinet ministers are said to be privately concerned that the promises May made to the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers on Wednesday, to secure legally binding guarantees on the backstop and win over Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, are a fantasy."

    Wasn't it Tuesday, not Wednesday? It's been a long week, but.....
    The vote at the 22 was Wednesday
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    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Pulpstar said:

    We need pressure on Labour to abstain to allow pasage of the deal, that is least damaging and possibly acievable option.

    Yep - the DUP has even more or less promised a general election at the end of it.
    Need to check the T&Cs of the GE offer. The DUP may notice if Comrade Jez facilitates the passing of the Backstop..

  • Options
    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672

    Chris said:

    To my mind the likeliest outcome is that May's deal will eventually pass, perhaps by means of a Labour abstention.

    The only real reason for Labour not to support it is the desire to inflict as much damage on the government as possible. After three more months of this, the government may well be damaged beyond repair anyway, and if the passage of the deal also loses it the support of the DUP, so much the better for Labour.

    Would Labour really want to go further, and inflict a disastrous outcome on the country, and - perhaps more to the point as far as cynics are concerned - take their share of the blame for that outcome in the eyes of the electorate?

    And after all, as May's deal is largely a matter of postponing the substantive decisions about the future, if Labour did win an election in the aftermath, they would be in a position to make the real deal on their own terms after that.

    In purely party-political terms, and ignoring (as they seem to do) the question of what is best for the country, Labour's calculation is tricky. If as you suggest they end up allowing the EU's deal through, they will get blamed by pro-Remain supporters for not stopping Brexit. Ditto if they somehow collude with the ERG loons in No Deal, with the added kick of the resulting job losses and disruption.

    Therefore I think that the Labour line will become 'We wanted to respect the 2016 referendum result, but we weren't in charge and the Tories have screwed up so badly that we need to find a way out.'. They will do very well indeed with that message, and Corbyn will go along with it (even if he'd actually prefer to leave) because it's the inevitable endpoint of both the parliamentary and Labour support numbers. They can present a credibly united front with such a message, and get political cover for it by supporting a Revoke/Deal referendum.

    Meanwhile the Tories will be engaged in a bitter civil war. What's not to like, from Labour's point of view?
    Humm..looks like wishful thinking..

    Can't see Corbyn&Co giving any practical support to a new Ref. If it ever actually happened it would immediately reveal (and rapidly deepen) a huge split between Corbyn&Co on one hand and the rest of labour(incl momentum) on the other. Why would Comrade Jez damage his control of labour before Socialism has been achieved?

    Especially given the obvious success of his current tactics.He can just continue to shout himself hoarse from the dispatchbox, all the while watching as the Tory party, impaled on brexit, fractures and quite possibly shatters.

    When he comes to power a divided opposition will be very useful.
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