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Yesterday was a huge political betting day with £2 million pounds on the Betfair market alone being wagered on the confidence vote on Theresa May.
Comments
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'So both Moggsy & co plus the PM have been weakened. '
Result, I guess.0 -
Well how much money? It's probably only going to be a few months worth of contributions to the EU anyway.TOPPING said:
There are several issues with that approach, namely what does "work towards a WTO bare bones deal" actually look like? It means I would imagine spending a bucketload of cash on a bunch of measures which would be designed to keep us sort of where we are. Can you really see a government agreeing to do that? Lorry park in Kent, new customs officers, new airport and other port design and structures.Xenon said:
How's about cancel and invoke A50 again and work towards a WTO bare bones deal?TOPPING said:
I read Prodi's remarks as meaning that if there was no deal there would be some "negotiation" on vital issues to keep the wheels turning, such as in preventing the planes falling out of the sky, medicines, etc.Cyclefree said:How about this as a way forward?
Votes in Parliament next week on 3 options:-
1. No Deal (literally) Brexit.
2. The WA
3. Article 50 revocation.
The one with the least support gets eliminated.
The top two get voted on again until there is a majority in Parliament.
Or the top two get put to the people again.
I’m sure something about AV probably needs saying at this point.
Anyway just a thought.
One of the reasons that "no deal" can't be on any ballot paper is because by that instruction even these deals can't be made (sozza @Xenon )
That is doable in two years and won't involve the destruction of the planet earth like an unprepared no deal.
Perfectly reasonable to have that in a referendum with the other 2 options.
And this is of course aside from the h*rd b*rd*r issue which of course is unsolvable with current (and near future?) technology.
Well the border question is more difficult. Perhaps we need to accept that to leave the EU meaningfully we'll need to have a hard border or some other compromise with Ireland in time. I don't think this is the end of the world as some are claiming.0 -
I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.0 -
I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.0
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In one sense, but it hasn't much affected achieving an actual resolution to substantive Brexit matters. It's been most helpful I suppose in giving May the flexibility to bring something before the House which her MPs might not like, and thus seeing if push comes to shove they will use the nuclear option and vote with the opposition in a vote of no confidence (this scenario presumes the DUP have not already done so).Theuniondivvie said:'So both Moggsy & co plus the PM have been weakened. '
Result, I guess.0 -
The sad truth is, unless Labour gift us with a christmas VONC next week, the constitutional crisis has been kicked down the road until January.
At this point, I think we should assume May plans to take her deal all the way to 21st January, in the vain and desperate hope a Christmas Miracle will reveal a way forward for her deal that doesn't involve a People's Vote.0 -
Someone posted this yesterday, but I'm gonna do so again.
Someone in the trade (aha) talking about what WTO terms mean.
https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/11/world-trade-deal?fbclid=IwAR0ND86-cmBHapfcX8O8ov0OU2Z7FchO1X6Ihb2GHij4YhCZHO_jrsfMIUY0 -
1) Completely disagree. If preparations are needed then they will have to be paid for, saying it is impossible because some people promised otherwise years ago is nonsense.TOPPING said:
1) It would be difficult to justify any number of billions of pounds on "preparations" for something people had told us wouldn't be needed; andXenon said:
Well how much money? It's probably only going to be a few months worth of contributions to the EU anyway.TOPPING said:
There are several issues with that approach, namely what does "work towards a WTO bare bones deal" actually look like? It means I would imagine spending a bucketload of cash on a bunch of measures which would be designed to keep us sort of where we are. Can you really see a government agreeing to do that? Lorry park in Kent, new customs officers, new airport and other port design and structures.Xenon said:
How's about cancel and invoke A50 again and work towards a WTO bare bones deal?TOPPING said:
I read Prodi's remarks as meaning that if there was no deal there would be some "negotiation" on vital issues to keep the wheels turning, such as in preventing the planes falling out of the sky, medicines, etc.Cyclefree said:How about this as a way forward?
Votes in Parliament next week on 3 options:-
1. No Deal (literally) Brexit.
2. The WA
3. Article 50 revocation.
The one with the least support gets eliminated.
The top two get voted on again until there is a majority in Parliament.
Or the top two get put to the people again.
I’m sure something about AV probably needs saying at this point.
Anyway just a thought.
One of the reasons that "no deal" can't be on any ballot paper is because by that instruction even these deals can't be made (sozza @Xenon )
That is doable in two years and won't involve the destruction of the planet earth like an unprepared no deal.
Perfectly reasonable to have that in a referendum with the other 2 options.
And this is of course aside from the h*rd b*rd*r issue which of course is unsolvable with current (and near future?) technology.
Well the border question is more difficult. Perhaps we need to accept that to leave the EU meaningfully we'll need to have a hard border or some other compromise with Ireland in time. I don't think this is the end of the world as some are claiming.
2) "we'll need to have a hard border" illustrates, I'm afraid, your lack of understanding of modern day British politics.
Also if it is an option in a new referendum then this can be explained in advance.
2) Well why not explain why.0 -
Because Mogg and his chums are thick. Davis, Baker, Johnson, Paterson, IDS, Jenkyns, Dorres.... Need I go on0
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Sometimes you give the impression that you are not a fan of Mrs. Maygrabcocque said:I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.0 -
Loyalty to the PM. Those against her are those against her deal.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
The space for those in favour of her deal but thinking she must go as she has no remaining political capital that say for instance Jeremy Hunt might get it over the line is seemingly zero Tory MPs.0 -
It is another thing they have in common with Jeremy Corbyn. I really do think there should be a general intelligence test requirement to become an MP, and particularly to become a frontbencherChris_A said:Because Mogg and his chums are thick. Davis, Baker, Johnson, Paterson, IDS, Jenkyns, Dorres.... Need I go on
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Revoking would be clear excuse to just remain forevermore, a smokescreen - virtually no one seems to think if we don't leave in March that we will come back and look at it later. A fairer alternative to make a choice with time to prepare would be a referendum with the various options, because the EU seem pretty likely to allow an extension in those circumstances, so you leave open the possibilities of leave and remain without crashing out, and without worrying people that it is carte blanche for people to obstruct every option so that we remain by default.Cyclefree said:I
It honour’s May’s interpretation of the result of the 2016 referendum. But she has failed to bring anyone else along with her...... so an alternative needs to be found.Sean_F said:
The best option is to pass the WA. It honours the result of the 2016 Referendum, without burning the economy.Cyclefree said:
Yes it would. I think though that price needs to be paid. There will be a political price to be paid if we crash out without a deal. That price may be even higher. Who knows? Do no harm is a good maxim. Revoking Art 50 while we can preserves the status quo. It does not close off the option of leaving in the future. Whereas crashing out is likely to have all sorts of unintended consequences and closes off options.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Cyclefree, it's be legal to revoke Article 50 just in the Commons, but the political price of doing so without a referendum would be significant.
Edited extra bit: it'd*
If we are to revoke in parliament then as you say there is a price that needs to be paid, and it may as well be upfront and say that this is it, we cannot afford to leave and so we are calling it off and do not intend to revisit and we will pay the price for that, I don't buy for a second that 'oh no, we can come back to it later' is genuine on the part of MPs if they go down that route - they will have gotten to that route because they cannot agree a path out, they will never subsequently agree a path to invoke again unless our politics is entirely upended. So if it needs doing do it, be honest about it, and take the hit. Not revoke with a lilly livered suggestion that they will consider it later.0 -
...always keep a-hold of NurseAlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
For fear of finding something worse0 -
In all probabibility, it's because those in Cabinet who seek to replace May, let it be known they refuse to drink from this poison chalice. Sajid and Hunt perfectly happy to bide their time, let May take the blame and the fallout from the constitutional crisis that will be unleashed.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
As pretty much everyone on here has observed, the VONC was an entertaining bit of political theatre, but it was yet more displacement activity. The constitutional crisis is coming. May may have been allowed a one month stay of execution, and it's now scheduled to kick off between 8th and 21st January, but the MV, and the obliteration of May's deal is still a fixed point.0 -
Who will be the first backbencher to come out and say they voted against May but are in favour of her deal ?0
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Donald Tusk is the man who sets the agenda for the EUCO. I think we can also conclude that he is not a fan either.MikeSmithson said:
Sometimes you give the impression that you are not a fan of Mrs. Maygrabcocque said:I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.0 -
How long does it take to say "you can't have any changes"?grabcocque said:I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.0 -
Just looking at the English Primary School results for 2017/18
This shows a couple of interesting national figures
% of primary pupils whose first language is not English 21.3%
% of pupils eligible for free school meals at any time in the last six years 24.3%
We don't know what the overlap is between the two groups
Source via
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-465414540 -
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
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It's a love hate relationship, he's much nicer about her on his Big_G account...MikeSmithson said:
Sometimes you give the impression that you are not a fan of Mrs. Maygrabcocque said:I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.0 -
It makes absolutely zero sense, she is making no progress in any direction whatsoever.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
The Tories deserve to be destroyed at the next election over the way they've handled Brexit.
Sadly for us we don't deserve Corbyn.0 -
Never, never, never, ............... neverSeanT said:There is an ambitious solution to the Norn Ireland border question. Offer Ulster a referendum: do you want co-sovereignty under Dublin/London?
It's nearly there anyway. If the alternative is No Deal then polls show most Northern Irish people would prefer a United Ireland. This is a way of delivering that, while allowing the Unionists to stay British on British land (shared with Ireland). They will also then get all the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union with the EU AND the UK, and prosper mightily thereby.
The backstop issue thus rendered irrelevant, we would be in a much stronger place, and able to negotiate a more palatable deal with the EU.0 -
It's an ambitious solution but would not gain any parliamentary votes and probably loses some !SeanT said:There is an ambitious solution to the Norn Ireland border question. Offer Ulster a referendum: do you want co-sovereignty under Dublin/London?
It's nearly there anyway. If the alternative is No Deal then polls show most Northern Irish people would prefer a United Ireland. This is a way of delivering that, while allowing the Unionists to stay British on British land (shared with Ireland). They will also then get all the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union with the EU AND the UK, and prosper mightily thereby.
The backstop issue thereby rendered irrelevant, we are in a much stronger place to negotiate a more palatable deal with the EU.
I think the DUP would ditch the Tories if they so much as suggested that.0 -
Those of you that voted for, and persist in supporting the madness known as Brexit, fully deserve him and the havoc he will reap. Sadly 48% of the country do not!Xenon said:
It makes absolutely zero sense, she is making no progress in any direction whatsoever.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
The Tories deserve to be destroyed at the next election over the way they've handled Brexit.
Sadly for us we don't deserve Corbyn.0 -
With all due respect, without knowing the overlap, it's just two superfically similar numbers.David_Evershed said:Just looking at the English Primary School results for 2017/18
This shows a couple of interesting national figures
% of primary pupils whose first language is not English 21.3%
% of pupils eligible for free school meals at any time in the last six years 24.3%
We don't know what the overlap is between the two groups
Source via
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-46541454
Given the low levels of unemployment among EU nationals in the UK, I would guess that group has a relatively low take up of free school meals.
Do we know how the percentage of pupils on free school meals have trended over time? And do we know if there have been meaningful changes to eligibility?0 -
MoronNigel_Foremain said:
It is another thing they have in common with Jeremy Corbyn. I really do think there should be a general intelligence test requirement to become an MP, and particularly to become a frontbencherChris_A said:Because Mogg and his chums are thick. Davis, Baker, Johnson, Paterson, IDS, Jenkyns, Dorres.... Need I go on
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For me while I dislike many of the alternative leaders on offer and their solutions, and I do think a protracted (even if expedited) leadership contest would have been a reckless waste of time, that has to be weighed against the question of what more can May offer as leader of the party and leader of the country. Whatever her positive qualities may be, and whatever the merits or not of her deal, absent a massive change in direction from factions or sides that have shown little inclination so far of shifting an inch (be they the ERG, Labour or the EU) no matter the purported horrors of no deal (purported because no one seems to believe it, or they would not risk it as they do), what can May herself now realistically accomplish?AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
I suppose the contest at least opened up the possibility she could u-turn and offer a referendum without being forced out by her members, but otherwise she has only one play left - a big game of chicken with Labour and the ERG, since everyone on earth down to the ameobas knows she cannot get changes to the backstop from the EU significant enough to get the votes for her deal.0 -
One thing the VONC did give us, in the absence of a MV, was a useful analaogue for counting out how doomed Mrs May's deal is.
I'm assuming that all those who NC'd May have zero confidence in her are against the deal.
I'm also assuming that a chunk of people who lent May their votes are remainers who are opposed to her deal, but kept her for fear of worse, like a Boris or No Dealer.
How many hard core Tory remainers are there? 20? 25? Let's be conservative, and say 20.
So the number of Tories in Parliament that will
support May's deal is ~180.
oppose May's deal is ~135
Assuming (reasonably) pretty much everyone else is against that means the final tally for the MV will be around
Ayes: 180
Noes: 470
No majority of 290.
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Rather surprised that London comes out well in the attainment map and counties like Dorset, Norfolk, Suffolk, Lincolnshire, Cornwall, North Yorks & Worcestershire weem to have the poorest attainment levels. Not sure how that relates to the "% of primary pupils whose first language is not English", except perhaps inversely.David_Evershed said:Just looking at the English Primary School results for 2017/18
This shows a couple of interesting national figures
% of primary pupils whose first language is not English 21.3%
% of pupils eligible for free school meals at any time in the last six years 24.3%
We don't know what the overlap is between the two groups
Source via
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-465414540 -
An interesting suggestion. If you give them a referendum, mind, how can you say the rest of UK should not get one? And so the daft merry-go-round that was started by the deranged obsession with Brexit continues..SeanT said:There is an ambitious solution to the Norn Ireland border question. Offer Ulster a referendum: do you want co-sovereignty under Dublin/London?
It's nearly there anyway. If the alternative is No Deal then polls show most Northern Irish people would prefer a United Ireland. This is a way of delivering that, while allowing the Unionists to stay British on British land (shared with Ireland). They will also then get all the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union with the EU AND the UK, and prosper mightily thereby.
The backstop issue thus rendered irrelevant, we would be in a much stronger place, and able to negotiate a more palatable deal with the EU.0 -
Admit it, you're just miffed that your David Lidington bet is not going to come off!AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
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You are being very unfair. Stephen Lloyd is voting for it so it will be :grabcocque said:One thing the VONC did give us, in the absence of a MV, was a useful analaogue for counting out how doomed Mrs May's deal is.
I'm assuming that all those who NC'd May have zero confidence in her are against the deal.
I'm also assuming that a chunk of people who lent May their votes are remainers who are opposed to her deal, but kept her for fear of worse, like a Boris or No Dealer.
How many hard core Tory remainers are there? 20? 25? Let's be conservative, and say 20.
So the number of Tories in Parliament that will
support May's deal is ~180.
oppose May's deal is ~135
Assuming (reasonably) pretty much everyone else is against that means the final tally for the MV will be around
Ayes: 180
Noes: 470
No majority of 290.
181 ayes
469 noes
(minus speaker et al)0 -
I'm not sure what the pundits are saying but my sense is that this will prove a more significant win for May than the numbers suggest.
She's now there for a year whatever anyone might wish which means she can largely ignore the ERGs and more importantly her regard amongst the public has increased enormously.
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
No one likes to see a bully and watching a man beat up a woman is particularly repulsive. i don't know whether there have been polls out but I doubt her popularity has ever been higher0 -
The tables are more about children's performance in the three Rs so the figures I quote are incidental and not the subject of the data.rcs1000 said:
With all due respect, without knowing the overlap, it's just two superfically similar numbers.David_Evershed said:Just looking at the English Primary School results for 2017/18
This shows a couple of interesting national figures
% of primary pupils whose first language is not English 21.3%
% of pupils eligible for free school meals at any time in the last six years 24.3%
We don't know what the overlap is between the two groups
Source via
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-46541454
Given the low levels of unemployment among EU nationals in the UK, I would guess that group has a relatively low take up of free school meals.
Do we know how the percentage of pupils on free school meals have trended over time? And do we know if there have been meaningful changes to eligibility?0 -
Yep, that is the intellectual level of J Corbyn and many of his acolytes. Glad you agree!!bigjohnowls said:
MoronNigel_Foremain said:
It is another thing they have in common with Jeremy Corbyn. I really do think there should be a general intelligence test requirement to become an MP, and particularly to become a frontbencherChris_A said:Because Mogg and his chums are thick. Davis, Baker, Johnson, Paterson, IDS, Jenkyns, Dorres.... Need I go on
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There's only so many ways you can say the WA isi a legally binding text and you've signed up to it.grabcocque said:I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.0 -
FTPTTOPPING said:
What actually are they? If she added that to "The Deal" as an addendum (just to the British people, mind), then that would box in the loons even further (although being loons it might make no difference).Pulpstar said:
Remaining and starting to use all the tools available to restrict FoM to the original intention of the EU might be a goer. I haven't heard any prominent remain advocates even start to go there. It's all #Peoplesvote / FBPE like some sort of drone hivemind on twitter.Alistair said:
This being the Home Secretary who failed to use all the options currently available within the EU to restrict immigration from EU countries?Scott_P said:
The short answer is a EU citizen has 3 months to find a job. If they can't then they have to prove they have sufficient means to not be a burden on the welfare state/health system via showing they have an independent income/pension and health insurance.
If not then they are deportable.0 -
The Hood from Thunderbirds vs Rat Eyes. Truly we are living in the Gilded Age.grabcocque said:Sajid and Hunt perfectly happy to bide their time, let May take the blame and the fallout from the constitutional crisis that will be unleashed.
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I've always thought that was the plan all along. But it was predicted on the assumption the deal would not be this hated or the momentum in the party so heavy against it. As things went on more and more undecideds came out against it, it was not getting more popular, and so we are where we are. I agree no one really wants to take on the job - I don't think even Corbyn would really want to take it on right now, but obviously he has to present as though he does - else she surely would have been out on her ear.SeanT said:
Quite. What's the point in replacing her when she is so keen to soak up all the punishment of Brexit; and who else REALLY wants to do that job, especially when there is no obvious way of doing a superior job?Nigel_Foremain said:
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Let her be the punchbag for public anger on Brexit. Then she can resign, taking the bruises with her, and the Tories can elect a post-Brexit PM ready to start afresh, untainted by the horrors of the last two years.
But no one else wanting to take the job on doesn't help us, even if it keeps her in post for a few months, and who cares about how long she's PM for?0 -
Perhaps the West Country, Yorks and East Anglia accents means the pupils qualify as "first language is not English".Benpointer said:
Rather surprised that London comes out well in the attainment map and counties like Dorset, Norfolk, Suffolk, Lincolnshire, Cornwall, North Yorks & Worcestershire weem to have the poorest attainment levels. Not sure how that relates to the "% of primary pupils whose first language is not English", except perhaps inversely.David_Evershed said:Just looking at the English Primary School results for 2017/18
This shows a couple of interesting national figures
% of primary pupils whose first language is not English 21.3%
% of pupils eligible for free school meals at any time in the last six years 24.3%
We don't know what the overlap is between the two groups
Source via
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-46541454
Whereas those from Worcestershire of course speak perfect English.0 -
I do wonder about Hunt's tiny beady little eyes. Does everything look very dark to him?Dura_Ace said:
The Hood from Thunderbirds vs Rat Eyes. Truly we are living in the Gilded Age.grabcocque said:Sajid and Hunt perfectly happy to bide their time, let May take the blame and the fallout from the constitutional crisis that will be unleashed.
0 -
She's a punchbag for MPs of all pursuasions but I am not sure the public see it that way. Quite a big proportion have a grudging respect for her imo.SeanT said:
Quite. What's the point in replacing her when she is so keen to soak up all the punishment of Brexit; and who else REALLY wants to do that job, especially when there is no obvious way of doing a superior job?Nigel_Foremain said:
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Let her be the punchbag for public anger on Brexit. Then she can resign, taking the bruises with her, and the Tories can elect a post-Brexit PM ready to start afresh, untainted by the horrors of the last two years.0 -
Ten minutes when you account for it to be put into diplomatic language, for each to say it in their own language and be translated, and for the greetings.Benpointer said:
How long does it take to say "you can't have any changes"?grabcocque said:I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.0 -
Judging by the polling, she is the country's most popular politician.Benpointer said:
She's a punchbag for MPs of all pursuasions but I am not sure the public see it that way. Quite a big proportion have a grudging respect for her imo.SeanT said:
Quite. What's the point in replacing her when she is so keen to soak up all the punishment of Brexit; and who else REALLY wants to do that job, especially when there is no obvious way of doing a superior job?Nigel_Foremain said:
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Let her be the punchbag for public anger on Brexit. Then she can resign, taking the bruises with her, and the Tories can elect a post-Brexit PM ready to start afresh, untainted by the horrors of the last two years.-1 -
Sean_F said:
Judging by the polling, she is the country's most popular politician.Benpointer said:
She's a punchbag for MPs of all pursuasions but I am not sure the public see it that way. Quite a big proportion have a grudging respect for her imo.SeanT said:
Quite. What's the point in replacing her when she is so keen to soak up all the punishment of Brexit; and who else REALLY wants to do that job, especially when there is no obvious way of doing a superior job?Nigel_Foremain said:
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Let her be the punchbag for public anger on Brexit. Then she can resign, taking the bruises with her, and the Tories can elect a post-Brexit PM ready to start afresh, untainted by the horrors of the last two years.
Least unpopular.0 -
Indeed. Rees Mogg certainly fits the image of a misogynist bully. He is a pathetic embarrassment to his country and his gender. He has to some extent had his comeuppance. I can't help hoping it only gets worse for this loathsome little manRoger said:I'm not sure what the pundits are saying but my sense is that this will prove a more significant win for May than the numbers suggest.
She's now there for a year whatever anyone might wish which means she can largely ignore the ERGs and more importantly her regard amongst the public has increased enormously.
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
No one likes to see a bully and watching a man beat up a woman is particularly repulsive. i don't know whether there have been polls out but I doubt her popularity has ever been higher0 -
148grss said:
Someone posted this yesterday, but I'm gonna do so again.
Someone in the trade (aha) talking about what WTO terms mean.
https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/11/world-trade-deal?fbclid=IwAR0ND86-cmBHapfcX8O8ov0OU2Z7FchO1X6Ihb2GHij4YhCZHO_jrsfMIUY
What is worrying is the number of Conservative Association Chairman and supporters I heard on the radio yesterday saying Mrs May should go and they believe No Deal Brexit is the way to go. It is clear that none of them have the faintest clue what they are talking about.
"Because painting No-Deal as anything other than a hand-grenade in the clockwork machinery of the UK’s trade is not only misleading, but actively dangerous.
Even if the fabled ‘managed No-Deal’ can materialize, putting in place the barebones bilateral cooperation agreements required to keep planes in the air, the consequences of No-Deal are grave:
- The goods border between the UK and the EU goes from virtually non-existent to requiring all the bureaucracy, checks and payments of the EU’s border with the few countries with whom they have literally no legal arrangements with beyond the WTO;
- The UK’s services access to Europe (the freedom to sell services remotely, to host EU clients, to establish offices in EU countries and to travel to the EU for work) snaps back from the best in the world to the incredibly limited access the EU offers countries its never done a deal with;
- Precisely zero of the Free Trade Agreements the EU has negotiated appear ready to be rolled over on Brexit Day 1, meaning the UK will (at least temporarily) lose all the market access the EU has negotiated on its behalf;
- The status of millions of British citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK will be in flux;
- The EU has indicated it will immediately and retroactively cease accepting many UK certifications and tests, where its legislation requires testing by an EU body.
To unwind decades of trade and political integration overnight is a really big deal. The whole point of the Withdrawal Agreement was to buy the government more time to prepare for some of the issues above, and negotiate others.
This is really, really serious stuff. Businesses have to get ready.
Re-branding measles as ‘Super Happy Fun Lumps’ doesn’t make the disease less scary, it just drives down vaccination rates. "0 -
Hey, she has been saying the same thing to Labour and the ERG for weeks about the EU not altering it, so she does know that perfectly well. She can try to sell some fluff comments as meaningful, but really what is she supposed to do? When the opposition (internal Tory and Labour) both demand we do what she says is impossible, she has to ask I guess.Chris_A said:
There's only so many ways you can say the WA is a legally binding text and you've signed up to it.grabcocque said:I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.
Of course, both will then say she did not ask hard enough. Labour at least can claim since they have different red lines there is a greater chance the EU can be persuaded to amend things, whether or not it is a realistic chance.0 -
I got some bad news:Sean_F said:
Judging by the polling, she is the country's most popular politician.Benpointer said:
She's a punchbag for MPs of all pursuasions but I am not sure the public see it that way. Quite a big proportion have a grudging respect for her imo.SeanT said:
Quite. What's the point in replacing her when she is so keen to soak up all the punishment of Brexit; and who else REALLY wants to do that job, especially when there is no obvious way of doing a superior job?Nigel_Foremain said:
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Let her be the punchbag for public anger on Brexit. Then she can resign, taking the bruises with her, and the Tories can elect a post-Brexit PM ready to start afresh, untainted by the horrors of the last two years.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/conservative-politicians/all)
Basically voters are idiots.0 -
In fairness nor do most of us, but it does seem it is all just being treated as a regular political game where usually something labelled as Tory or Labour is called good or bad simply based on who it is coming from, and whatever seems to most horrify remainers or, worse, soft leavers, is called good by default (I accept the possibility the thing that pleases hard brexiteers is being rejected automatically by soft leavers and remainers for the same reason).Beverley_C said:148grss said:Someone posted this yesterday, but I'm gonna do so again.
Someone in the trade (aha) talking about what WTO terms mean.
https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/11/world-trade-deal?fbclid=IwAR0ND86-cmBHapfcX8O8ov0OU2Z7FchO1X6Ihb2GHij4YhCZHO_jrsfMIUY
What is worrying is the number of Conservative Association Chairman and supporters I heard on the radio yesterday saying Mrs May should go and they believe No Deal Brexit is the way to go. It is clear that none of them have the faintest clue what they are talking about.
0 -
Well there is that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Admit it, you're just miffed that your David Lidington bet is not going to come off!AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
0 -
The one piece of good news is that Tom "I-smear-decent-people" Watson is even less popular than Neil Hamilton!grabcocque said:
I got some bad news:Sean_F said:
Judging by the polling, she is the country's most popular politician.Benpointer said:
She's a punchbag for MPs of all pursuasions but I am not sure the public see it that way. Quite a big proportion have a grudging respect for her imo.SeanT said:
Quite. What's the point in replacing her when she is so keen to soak up all the punishment of Brexit; and who else REALLY wants to do that job, especially when there is no obvious way of doing a superior job?Nigel_Foremain said:
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Let her be the punchbag for public anger on Brexit. Then she can resign, taking the bruises with her, and the Tories can elect a post-Brexit PM ready to start afresh, untainted by the horrors of the last two years.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/conservative-politicians/all)
Basically voters are idiots.0 -
Old news.grabcocque said:
I got some bad news:Sean_F said:
Judging by the polling, she is the country's most popular politician.Benpointer said:
She's a punchbag for MPs of all pursuasions but I am not sure the public see it that way. Quite a big proportion have a grudging respect for her imo.SeanT said:
Quite. What's the point in replacing her when she is so keen to soak up all the punishment of Brexit; and who else REALLY wants to do that job, especially when there is no obvious way of doing a superior job?Nigel_Foremain said:
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Let her be the punchbag for public anger on Brexit. Then she can resign, taking the bruises with her, and the Tories can elect a post-Brexit PM ready to start afresh, untainted by the horrors of the last two years.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/conservative-politicians/all)
Basically voters are idiots.
Why is Hague so popular (relatively)?
Good news for May - 100% of people had heard of her, vs 97% had heard of Boris and a mere 39% for Raab.0 -
In lighter news the replies to this tweet are incredibly entertaining.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1073163135312384001?s=190 -
As I've said about 300 times already, the biggest short-term issues with dropping out without a deal are:Xenon said:Well how much money? It's probably only going to be a few months worth of contributions to the EU anyway.
Well the border question is more difficult. Perhaps we need to accept that to leave the EU meaningfully we'll need to have a hard border or some other compromise with Ireland in time. I don't think this is the end of the world as some are claiming.
1. Our trade relationships with the rest of the world, where we drop out of existing EU agreements. So, British firms will no longer be legally able to have Korean banking licenses, for example.
2. Falling out of the EU rules on prevention of double taxation and withholding taxes. This will have a major negative impact for firms that have UK based European holding companies. (Like, errr, the one I was CFO of.) The real hassle with this one, which will have a long-term impact on the willingness of non-EU firms to invest in the UK, is that because corporate tax is a non-EU competency, we will need to resolve the issue with each of the other 26 countries in the EU, so it might take some time to sort out.
3. The administration requirements on firms who currently do minimal paperwork around EU exports, who will now be required to make much more administration.
4. The rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice-versa to stay and work. Again, as this is a non-EU competency issue, if we drop out without a deal, then we need to get the French government to pass legislation regarding the rights of British workers there.
All these are solvable. It's just that solving them doesn't happen immediately. As we've seen with the US and Open Skies, replicating existing trading agreements is by no means simple, and every country we talk to is keen to extract their pound of flesh as we're the desperate ones.
Longer term, the biggest issue is that the UK economy is utterly dependent on consumption. And consumption levels are held up by high house prices (which mean we all feel comfortable spending more than we earn, because - hey! - we've got loads of equity in our properties.) A decline in migration levels, combined with the inevitable demographic drag, will likely pressure house prices in a downward direction. And that means people will have lower savings at the Bank of Bricks and Mortar, and therefore will cut consumer spending to compensate. This could - and probably will - lead to a serious multi-year recession, as our economy adjusts. Fundamentally, though, our over-reliance on consumption is not an EU-related problem. It's just that being in the EU hid it. Brexit merely brings denoument forward.0 -
It does show that in the case of Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson you can "fool some of the people all of the time"grabcocque said:
I got some bad news:Sean_F said:
Judging by the polling, she is the country's most popular politician.Benpointer said:
She's a punchbag for MPs of all pursuasions but I am not sure the public see it that way. Quite a big proportion have a grudging respect for her imo.SeanT said:
Quite. What's the point in replacing her when she is so keen to soak up all the punishment of Brexit; and who else REALLY wants to do that job, especially when there is no obvious way of doing a superior job?Nigel_Foremain said:
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Let her be the punchbag for public anger on Brexit. Then she can resign, taking the bruises with her, and the Tories can elect a post-Brexit PM ready to start afresh, untainted by the horrors of the last two years.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/conservative-politicians/all)
Basically voters are idiots.0 -
I've just seen a longish interview with him about his attitudes to brexit and whether he wanted it and whether he thought we'd be better off out than remaining. It was a friendly interview as these things are on Euro News. He was OK but he'll definitely have to sharpen up. The very gentle Irish interviewer could of been no wiser about his plans after the interview than they were beforeNigel_Foremain said:
Those of you that voted for, and persist in supporting the madness known as Brexit, fully deserve him and the havoc he will reap. Sadly 48% of the country do not!Xenon said:
It makes absolutely zero sense, she is making no progress in any direction whatsoever.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
The Tories deserve to be destroyed at the next election over the way they've handled Brexit.
Sadly for us we don't deserve Corbyn.0 -
I must admit to having been surprised at the level of his petulance, complaining, in essence, that under the rules she won and yet she won't(yet) resign anyway.Roger said:
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
I was also shocked at the number of complaints about her trying to secure some concessions in Europe. Unsuccessfully, and was her heart really in it, and the MV being pulled meant she earned much opprobrium, but there were still people who were demanding she try to renegotiate something...complaining that she was trying to, at least in some measure, seeking to renegotiate something, labelling it as begging etc. Which it might well have been, but whether she begs, pleads or demands, they still insisted she tried then whinged when she did try.
But it goes back to what can she do to try to fix things now, and I'm coming up with nothing.0 -
There is a sense in which EUCO communiques are "legally binding". They are legal instruments, and they do establish a policy direction for the Union. Of course the contents of the (draft) communique in no way affects either the words or the spirit of the WA, merely committing the Union to a "best effort" attempt to replace the backstop with something else.kle4 said:
Hey, she has been saying the same thing to Labour and the ERG for weeks about the EU not altering it, so she does know that perfectly well. She can try to sell some fluff comments as meaningful, but really what is she supposed to do?Chris_A said:
There's only so many ways you can say the WA is a legally binding text and you've signed up to it.grabcocque said:I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.
Of course, as far as the EUCO is concerned, that was always the intention anyway, implicit in the WA, so it's hardly a concession for them to commit on a best-effort basis to do what they already thought they had committed to.
So, yes. May will be able to claim if you squint a bit, that she has gained "legally binding assurances" on the backstop, but no, it won't actually change the operation of the Withdrawal Agreement in any way at all.
Also, it's not going to change anyone's mind.
0 -
Nope, just nowhere near as wracked with prejudice and blissfully ignorant, on the whole, of the daily vicissitudes.grabcocque said:
I got some bad news:Sean_F said:
Judging by the polling, she is the country's most popular politician.Benpointer said:
She's a punchbag for MPs of all pursuasions but I am not sure the public see it that way. Quite a big proportion have a grudging respect for her imo.SeanT said:
Quite. What's the point in replacing her when she is so keen to soak up all the punishment of Brexit; and who else REALLY wants to do that job, especially when there is no obvious way of doing a superior job?Nigel_Foremain said:
Because there is no one to replace her that will get a better result. They know that. As for the likelihood of Mr. Thicky Corbyn being able to renegotiate, that prospect is absolutely laughable.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Let her be the punchbag for public anger on Brexit. Then she can resign, taking the bruises with her, and the Tories can elect a post-Brexit PM ready to start afresh, untainted by the horrors of the last two years.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/conservative-politicians/all)
Basically voters are idiots.
I'm not a fan of Theresa May but under her leadership the Tories have consistently polled above 40%.
I think a Corbyn government would be an enormous risk to the country but I have to accept that many voters like him.
0 -
A man in Lidl took the last croissant and I said “oh you’ve taken the last croissant” and laughed and then he offered it to me and I said “oh no I couldn’t possibly” so I got a Danish pastry but I really wanted the crossiant and I’m still upset that he didn’t force the issue.Alistair said:In lighter news the replies to this tweet are incredibly entertaining.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1073163135312384001?s=19
Brilliant.0 -
To be honest, I voted remain after a lot of in decision.Nigel_Foremain said:
Indeed. Rees Mogg certainly fits the image of a misogynist bully. He is a pathetic embarrassment to his country and his gender. He has to some extent had his comeuppance. I can't help hoping it only gets worse for this loathsome little manRoger said:I'm not sure what the pundits are saying but my sense is that this will prove a more significant win for May than the numbers suggest.
She's now there for a year whatever anyone might wish which means she can largely ignore the ERGs and more importantly her regard amongst the public has increased enormously.
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
No one likes to see a bully and watching a man beat up a woman is particularly repulsive. i don't know whether there have been polls out but I doubt her popularity has ever been higher
However I think your description of JRM is totally unfair.
He always comes across as very polite.
Also his arguments are sound , wether you agree with them is a different matter.0 -
That is because he is thick and doesn't really know himself. He is just like the sort of rent-a-lefty that used to go to my Sixth Form College back in the early 80s: he wants desperately to be seen as intellectual (even though he knows he is not) so takes a contrarian viewpoint on everything to try and give other even less intelligent people the impression that he has something clever to say.Roger said:
I've just seen a longish interview with him about his attitudes to brexit and whether he wanted it and whether he thought we'd be better off out than remaining. It was a friendly interview as these things are on Euro News. He was OK but he'll definitely have to sharpen up. The very gentle Irish interviewer could of been no wiser about his plans after the interview than they were beforeNigel_Foremain said:
Those of you that voted for, and persist in supporting the madness known as Brexit, fully deserve him and the havoc he will reap. Sadly 48% of the country do not!Xenon said:
It makes absolutely zero sense, she is making no progress in any direction whatsoever.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
The Tories deserve to be destroyed at the next election over the way they've handled Brexit.
Sadly for us we don't deserve Corbyn.0 -
I wasn't disagreeing, just noting that she has in essence instructed to try so she is trying, however futilely.grabcocque said:
There is a sense in which EUCO communiques are "legally binding". They are legal instruments, and they do establish a policy direction for the Union. Of course the contents of the (draft) communique in no way affects either the words or the spirit of the WA, merely committing the Union to a "best effort" attempt to replace the backstop with something else.kle4 said:
Hey, she has been saying the same thing to Labour and the ERG for weeks about the EU not altering it, so she does know that perfectly well. She can try to sell some fluff comments as meaningful, but really what is she supposed to do?Chris_A said:
There's only so many ways you can say the WA is a legally binding text and you've signed up to it.grabcocque said:I see from the EUCO agenda, a whole TEN MINUTES has been allocated to the matter of Mrs May's addendum.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.
Of course, as far as the EUCO is concerned, that was always the intention anyway, implicit in the WA, so it's hardly a concession for them to commit on a best-effort basis to do what they already thought they had committed to.
So, yes. May will be able to claim if you squint a bit, that she has gained "legally binding assurances" on the backstop, but no, it won't actually change the operation of the Withdrawal Agreement in any way at all.
Also, it's not going to change anyone's mind.
I bet the first thing she says is 'Look, I wasn't expecting to be here today to be honest'.0 -
He attempts to exude an air of nobility and grandeeism and elder-statesmanhood, but his behaviour is petty and straight out of student politics.kle4 said:
I must admit to having been surprised at the level of his petulance, complaining, in essence, that under the rules she won and yet she won't(yet) resign anyway.Roger said:
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
The mismatch between how he presents and how he behaves is incredibly stark.0 -
I appreciate his general manners, but he seems to be getting increasingly petty and whiny with some of his comments, on May last night and Carney etc.Yorkcity said:
To be honest, I voted remain after a lot of in decision.Nigel_Foremain said:
Indeed. Rees Mogg certainly fits the image of a misogynist bully. He is a pathetic embarrassment to his country and his gender. He has to some extent had his comeuppance. I can't help hoping it only gets worse for this loathsome little manRoger said:I'm not sure what the pundits are saying but my sense is that this will prove a more significant win for May than the numbers suggest.
She's now there for a year whatever anyone might wish which means she can largely ignore the ERGs and more importantly her regard amongst the public has increased enormously.
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
No one likes to see a bully and watching a man beat up a woman is particularly repulsive. i don't know whether there have been polls out but I doubt her popularity has ever been higher
However I think your description of JRM is totally unfair.
He always comes across as very polite.
Also his arguments are sound , whether you agree with them is a different matter.0 -
His politeness comes from an expensive education, and does not make him immune form being a bigot and a misogynist. As for his arguments being sound? Most economists would disagree. Unless, of course, you believe in the Gove maxim, or you think that economic chaos is a good thing.Yorkcity said:
To be honest, I voted remain after a lot of in decision.Nigel_Foremain said:
Indeed. Rees Mogg certainly fits the image of a misogynist bully. He is a pathetic embarrassment to his country and his gender. He has to some extent had his comeuppance. I can't help hoping it only gets worse for this loathsome little manRoger said:I'm not sure what the pundits are saying but my sense is that this will prove a more significant win for May than the numbers suggest.
She's now there for a year whatever anyone might wish which means she can largely ignore the ERGs and more importantly her regard amongst the public has increased enormously.
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
No one likes to see a bully and watching a man beat up a woman is particularly repulsive. i don't know whether there have been polls out but I doubt her popularity has ever been higher
However I think your description of JRM is totally unfair.
He always comes across as very polite.
Also his arguments are sound , wether you agree with them is a different matter.0 -
The only reason that occurs to me is that most of them don't think anybody else could do a better job in terms of the Brexit negotiation (which is true: now the deal is on the table the EU aren't interested in talking anymore) so they're going to let her carry the can for the defeat of her agreement - and also the fallout from No Deal, which looks like the most probable final outcome at this stage. Those who voted against her consisted, presumably, of some very desperate Remainers who can see the writing on the wall, walking hand-in-hand with hard Brexiteers expressing their disdain for May's agreement and aiming for No Deal by default.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
Once May has been used as a human shield/punchbag - for the unloved Deal itself, as a fall gal for Parliament's failure to agree on any alternative, and for her lack of preparation for a Hard Brexit - then she'll be handed the bottle of whisky and the pearl-handled pistol. If she hasn't already used them of her own volition by then, of course.
This is a course of action that they may come to bitterly regret. If there's a VoNC and an early election then they're relying on May resigning out of duty, giving them the two week pantomime window mandated by the FTPA to crown a successor. But if May sees her duty as not abandoning her post in a hurricane and choosing to go down with the ship then they can't shift her, so they end up having her lead them into another election. Even worse, if May does go but they can't agree on a unity candidate to succeed her, then they would go into the election campaign with no leader and Prime Ministerial candidate at all. Under those circumstances, most Tory MPs might just as well not bother to mount a defence of their seats and start looking for alternative employment immediately.0 -
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I know what you mean, but the dangers of No Deal have been explained so often, in so many different ways that, quite frankly, ignorance of the dangers is no excuse.kle4 said:
In fairness nor do most of us, but it does seem it is all just being treated as a regular political game where usually something labelled as Tory or Labour is called good or bad simply based on who it is coming from, and whatever seems to most horrify remainers or, worse, soft leavers, is called good by default (I accept the possibility the thing that pleases hard brexiteers is being rejected automatically by soft leavers and remainers for the same reason).Beverley_C said:148grss said:Someone posted this yesterday, but I'm gonna do so again.
Someone in the trade (aha) talking about what WTO terms mean.
https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/11/world-trade-deal?fbclid=IwAR0ND86-cmBHapfcX8O8ov0OU2Z7FchO1X6Ihb2GHij4YhCZHO_jrsfMIUY
What is worrying is the number of Conservative Association Chairman and supporters I heard on the radio yesterday saying Mrs May should go and they believe No Deal Brexit is the way to go. It is clear that none of them have the faintest clue what they are talking about.0 -
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If the MPs did not realise that we are very close to having a GE in 2019 and that if she was confirmed in post there would be no time to change leader, they will get what they deserve.Scott_P said:
Though I did like the theory Corbyn could be bought off with the promise of a May/June GE, so May steps down in Feb/March and a new leader takes over then.
Win/win for most of the parties, but I cannot see Labour risking being involved in passing any Brexit deal when they might get a GE anyway.0 -
Actually, I think he is simply a complete ar*e whose social background and upbringing has instilled a sense of entitlement that is not merited in anyway.Nigel_Foremain said:
That is because he is thick and doesn't really know himself. He is just like the sort of rent-a-lefty that used to go to my Sixth Form College back in the early 80s: he wants desperately to be seen as intellectual (even though he knows he is not) so takes a contrarian viewpoint on everything to try and give other even less intelligent people the impression that he has something clever to say.Roger said:
I've just seen a longish interview with him about his attitudes to brexit and whether he wanted it and whether he thought we'd be better off out than remaining. It was a friendly interview as these things are on Euro News. He was OK but he'll definitely have to sharpen up. The very gentle Irish interviewer could of been no wiser about his plans after the interview than they were beforeNigel_Foremain said:
Those of you that voted for, and persist in supporting the madness known as Brexit, fully deserve him and the havoc he will reap. Sadly 48% of the country do not!Xenon said:
It makes absolutely zero sense, she is making no progress in any direction whatsoever.AlastairMeeks said:I have to say that I find the thinking of Conservative MPs incomprehensible. Theresa May offers nothing to the country now: she is used up. Why they decided to leave her in situ is quite beyond me.
The Tories deserve to be destroyed at the next election over the way they've handled Brexit.
Sadly for us we don't deserve Corbyn.0 -
Let's be honest, it's not within her power to grant. Cabinet will choose her timetable for departure for her, assuming that she somehow rides out the constitutional crisis that will be unleashed in January.tlg86 said:0 -
On topic, while I am sure they wanted to win I don't think the ERG were operating on the basis of only trying when they thought they could win. Yes they think the members and voters are with them on this (and at least in opposing the deal that is true, if not for solutions), but it does seem that it was mostly about having that fight in the open, that they did everything they could to stop the party going down a route they think is horrendous. Really if they wanted to change direction they needed to move a long long time ago, but that was when they had even fewer on side.0
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Manners are simply a social lubricant. They have absolutely nothing to do with ability of intelligence.Yorkcity said:To be honest, I voted remain after a lot of in decision.
However I think your description of JRM is totally unfair.
He always comes across as very polite.
Also his arguments are sound , whether you agree with them is a different matter.
0 -
Remarkable to think this sentence could describe 90+% of Parliament at any given time.Beverley_C said:
Actually, I think he is simply a complete ar*e whose social background and upbringing has instilled a sense of entitlement that is not merited in anyway.0 -
Didn't the DUP release an alternative backstop proposal the other day or something? Maybe they've solved this whole issue already. We could dream.0
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I've no idea whether he's a misogynist, but he is not the gentleman he portrays himself as.Nigel_Foremain said:
Indeed. Rees Mogg certainly fits the image of a misogynist bully. He is a pathetic embarrassment to his country and his gender. He has to some extent had his comeuppance. I can't help hoping it only gets worse for this loathsome little manRoger said:I'm not sure what the pundits are saying but my sense is that this will prove a more significant win for May than the numbers suggest.
She's now there for a year whatever anyone might wish which means she can largely ignore the ERGs and more importantly her regard amongst the public has increased enormously.
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
No one likes to see a bully and watching a man beat up a woman is particularly repulsive. i don't know whether there have been polls out but I doubt her popularity has ever been higher
Nadine Dorries showed the correct way to behave after the confidence vote. "It's not the way I voted, but I respect the result."0 -
Good manners are about showing consideration for other people. Whining petulance is not good manners.Beverley_C said:
Manners are simply a social lubricant. They have absolutely nothing to do with ability of intelligence.Yorkcity said:To be honest, I voted remain after a lot of in decision.
However I think your description of JRM is totally unfair.
He always comes across as very polite.
Also his arguments are sound , whether you agree with them is a different matter.0 -
And given it is not as though those opposed to the deal now feel committed to backing it just because they lost the leadership vote (heck, some opposed to it voted for May), there's no need to get whiny about the loss. To quote May "Nothing(much) has changed"Sean_F said:
Nadine Dorries showed the correct way to behave after the confidence vote. "It's not the way I voted, but I respect the result."Nigel_Foremain said:
Indeed. Rees Mogg certainly fits the image of a misogynist bully. He is a pathetic embarrassment to his country and his gender. He has to some extent had his comeuppance. I can't help hoping it only gets worse for this loathsome little manRoger said:I'm not sure what the pundits are saying but my sense is that this will prove a more significant win for May than the numbers suggest.
She's now there for a year whatever anyone might wish which means she can largely ignore the ERGs and more importantly her regard amongst the public has increased enormously.
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
No one likes to see a bully and watching a man beat up a woman is particularly repulsive. i don't know whether there have been polls out but I doubt her popularity has ever been higher
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Not going to happen. No way she can go into a GE on the basis that she'll quit soon after. How would the electorate know who they're really voting for?Scott_P said:0 -
Never watched the aftermath of the vote .kle4 said:
I appreciate his general manners, but he seems to be getting increasingly petty and whiny with some of his comments, on May last night and Carney etc.Yorkcity said:
To be honest, I voted remain after a lot of in decision.Nigel_Foremain said:
Indeed. Rees Mogg certainly fits the image of a misogynist bully. He is a pathetic embarrassment to his country and his gender. He has to some extent had his comeuppance. I can't help hoping it only gets worse for this loathsome little manRoger said:I'm not sure what the pundits are saying but my sense is that this will prove a more significant win for May than the numbers suggest.
She's now there for a year whatever anyone might wish which means she can largely ignore the ERGs and more importantly her regard amongst the public has increased enormously.
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
No one likes to see a bully and watching a man beat up a woman is particularly repulsive. i don't know whether there have been polls out but I doubt her popularity has ever been higher
However I think your description of JRM is totally unfair.
He always comes across as very polite.
Also his arguments are sound , whether you agree with them is a different matter.
As my wife is fed up with Brexit.
However one anecdote.
The referendum split my family.
My elderly father voted leave, mainly due to immigration.
The other day out of the blue he said if he knew now how difficult it would be.
He would have voted remain.0 -
The ERG seem to believe they are far from out of weapons to use. And they're probably right to think that. No Deal is still the default. The ERG need to simply carry on being obstreperous and obstructive to a fault, and could still win the war simply because Parliament is unwilling or unable to stop us crashing over that cliff.kle4 said:On topic, while I am sure they wanted to win I don't think the ERG were operating on the basis of only trying when they thought they could win. Yes they think the members and voters are with them on this (and at least in opposing the deal that is true, if not for solutions), but it does seem that it was mostly about having that fight in the open, that they did everything they could to stop the party going down a route they think is horrendous. Really if they wanted to change direction they needed to move a long long time ago, but that was when they had even fewer on side.
I'd like to believe if we made it to 28th March and there was still no agreement, whoever was PM would have no choice to revoke A50. But I realise that this is an article of blind faith that the UK establishment cannot, will not, ever let the cliff edge happen.0 -
Strictly speaking wouldn't that be 'genuine' manners? Giving the 'appearance' of showing consideration for other people might get away with people thinking you have good manners.Sean_F said:
Good manners are about showing consideration for other people. WBeverley_C said:
Manners are simply a social lubricant. They have absolutely nothing to do with ability of intelligence.Yorkcity said:To be honest, I voted remain after a lot of in decision.
However I think your description of JRM is totally unfair.
He always comes across as very polite.
Also his arguments are sound , whether you agree with them is a different matter.
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All it requires is for the Withdrawal Agreement to be basically completely rewritten from scratch. ezpzkle4 said:Didn't the DUP release an alternative backstop proposal the other day or something? Maybe they've solved this whole issue already. We could dream.
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So the evidence is that (by miles) most people (i) hate the deal and (ii) think that no other PM could have got a better one. This is quite an interesting mindset. Put that together, divide both sides by a constant, integrate and then differentiate back up to where we came from and what do we get? That the vast majority of people hate the prospect of leaving the EU. And yet it is certainly NOT the case that the vast majority wish to remain in it. I wonder how we reconcile this. Is it possible for a person to both dread the prospect of doing something and yet be determined to do it? Well of course it is. Just think about Christmas. Yes, that is a very good example, come to think of it. So is that what Brexit is going to be like? Will leaving the European Union be like Christmas?0
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Sure, but set against that is if there is a snap GE it will be precipitated by the fall of the government and who then would be able to take over as leader and present a coherent message about what they are to campaign on?BigIan said:
Not going to happen. No way she can go into a GE on the basis that she'll quit soon after. How would the electorate know who they're really voting for?Scott_P said:
It's why the Tories should be petrified of a GE. At least if they pass a deal and the DUP then bring them down someone could perhaps swiftly take over on a 'Look, we know Brexit was tough but we have now secured Brexit (sotto voce - though there will be years and years to come on minutiae) and you need to vote for us because Corbyn IRA economic chaos etc etc'. If they are brought down without there being a deal, and it is before exit day, what can any leader say they will do?0 -
If they leave it that late then the game's already over. The EU Withdrawal Act and the rest of the Brexit legislation needs repealing before revocation may be considered.grabcocque said:
The ERG seem to believe they are far from out of weapons to use. And they're probably right to think that. No Deal is still the default. The ERG need to simply carry on being obstreperous and obstructive to a fault, and could still win the war simply because Parliament is unwilling or unable to stop us crashing over that cliff.kle4 said:On topic, while I am sure they wanted to win I don't think the ERG were operating on the basis of only trying when they thought they could win. Yes they think the members and voters are with them on this (and at least in opposing the deal that is true, if not for solutions), but it does seem that it was mostly about having that fight in the open, that they did everything they could to stop the party going down a route they think is horrendous. Really if they wanted to change direction they needed to move a long long time ago, but that was when they had even fewer on side.
I'd like to believe if we made it to 28th March and there was still no agreement, whoever was PM would have no choice to revoke A50. But I realise that this is an article of blind faith that the UK establishment cannot, will not, ever let the cliff edge happen.
The Establishment is powerless to act this time because it is split between two rival political parties, the members of each of which seem more afraid of helping the other than they are of a Hard Brexit. If that continues then No Deal is inevitable.0 -
Perhaps in truth, many of the ERG don't actually want Brexit. At best it removes their USP, and worst they eventually get to reap the catastrophe that they have helped sowgrabcocque said:
The ERG seem to believe they are far from out of weapons to use. And they're probably right to think that. No Deal is still the default. The ERG need to simply carry on being obstreperous and obstructive to a fault, and could still win the war simply because Parliament is unwilling or unable to stop us crashing over that cliff.kle4 said:On topic, while I am sure they wanted to win I don't think the ERG were operating on the basis of only trying when they thought they could win. Yes they think the members and voters are with them on this (and at least in opposing the deal that is true, if not for solutions), but it does seem that it was mostly about having that fight in the open, that they did everything they could to stop the party going down a route they think is horrendous. Really if they wanted to change direction they needed to move a long long time ago, but that was when they had even fewer on side.
I'd like to believe if we made it to 28th March and there was still no agreement, whoever was PM would have no choice to revoke A50. But I realise that this is an article of blind faith that the UK establishment cannot, will not, ever let the cliff edge happen.0 -
Why would parliament allow her to put a referendum which vastly increases the chances of her deal passing? 1/3 at least of Tories against and virtually no one else. Remain vs deal is stupid, and would be opposed by many Tories, but could tempt Labour?SeanT said:
So her solution has to be a new referendum, BUT excluding Remain from the ballot paper, i.e. between My Deal or No Deal.kinabalu said:So the evidence is that (by miles) most people (i) hate the deal and (ii) think that no other PM could have got a better one. This is quite an interesting mindset. Put that together, divide both sides by a constant, integrate and then differentiate back up to where we came from and what do we get? That the vast majority of people hate the prospect of leaving the EU. And yet it is certainly NOT the case that the vast majority wish to remain in it. I wonder how we reconcile this. Is it possible for a person to both dread the prospect of doing something and yet be determined to do it? Well of course it is. Just think about Christmas. Yes, that is a very good example, come to think of it. So is that what Brexit is going to be like? Will leaving the European Union be like Christmas?
My Deal - TMay's Deal - would win by a mile. Personally I'd rather Remain than endure her awful deal, but the public disagrees with me, and the EU is not going to offer any more.
Once she has secured a result in a referendum, parliament will just have to accept it.0 -
I am sure most of them do want it. But some only in theory.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps in truth, many of the ERG don't actually want Brexit. At best it removes their USP, and worst they eventually get to reap the catastrophe that they have helped sowgrabcocque said:
The ERG seem to believe they are far from out of weapons to use. And they're probably right to think that. No Deal is still the default. The ERG need to simply carry on being obstreperous and obstructive to a fault, and could still win the war simply because Parliament is unwilling or unable to stop us crashing over that cliff.kle4 said:On topic, while I am sure they wanted to win I don't think the ERG were operating on the basis of only trying when they thought they could win. Yes they think the members and voters are with them on this (and at least in opposing the deal that is true, if not for solutions), but it does seem that it was mostly about having that fight in the open, that they did everything they could to stop the party going down a route they think is horrendous. Really if they wanted to change direction they needed to move a long long time ago, but that was when they had even fewer on side.
I'd like to believe if we made it to 28th March and there was still no agreement, whoever was PM would have no choice to revoke A50. But I realise that this is an article of blind faith that the UK establishment cannot, will not, ever let the cliff edge happen.0 -
I repeat, because some people are not understanding the choices:SeanT said:
So her solution has to be a new referendum, BUT excluding Remain from the ballot paper, i.e. between My Deal or No Deal.kinabalu said:So the evidence is that (by miles) most people (i) hate the deal and (ii) think that no other PM could have got a better one. This is quite an interesting mindset. Put that together, divide both sides by a constant, integrate and then differentiate back up to where we came from and what do we get? That the vast majority of people hate the prospect of leaving the EU. And yet it is certainly NOT the case that the vast majority wish to remain in it. I wonder how we reconcile this. Is it possible for a person to both dread the prospect of doing something and yet be determined to do it? Well of course it is. Just think about Christmas. Yes, that is a very good example, come to think of it. So is that what Brexit is going to be like? Will leaving the European Union be like Christmas?
My Deal - TMay's Deal - would win by a mile. Personally I'd rather Remain than endure her awful deal, but the public disagrees with me, and the EU is not going to offer any more.
Once she has secured a result in a referendum, parliament will just have to accept it.
- The deal
- No Brexit
- No deal, managed or otherwise
There is neither time nor will for another referendum, nor is there time nor will for another negotiation.
We have a decent deal; Remainer and Leaver wreckers need to hold their noses and vote for it.0 -
Perhaps. It would be like celebrating the fact that due to your recent divorce, this year you can have Christmas without all those irritating relatives taking up space in your house, but realising that you don't have any money to buy the kids presents. The turkey that was promised turns out to not be coming imminently after all, and the kids wont be allowed to travel freely to see the relatives anymore and they hate you because of it. Oh well, at least every Christmas there is always Cliff.kinabalu said:So the evidence is that (by miles) most people (i) hate the deal and (ii) think that no other PM could have got a better one. This is quite an interesting mindset. Put that together, divide both sides by a constant, integrate and then differentiate back up to where we came from and what do we get? That the vast majority of people hate the prospect of leaving the EU. And yet it is certainly NOT the case that the vast majority wish to remain in it. I wonder how we reconcile this. Is it possible for a person to both dread the prospect of doing something and yet be determined to do it? Well of course it is. Just think about Christmas. Yes, that is a very good example, come to think of it. So is that what Brexit is going to be like? Will leaving the European Union be like Christmas?
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There is will for a second referendum - masses of Labour MPs want it already and if they cannot get a GE it is the next option, and some Tories already want it and May may have no other option for her own deal.Mortimer said:
I repeat, because some people are not understanding the choices:SeanT said:
So her solution has to be a new referendum, BUT excluding Remain from the ballot paper, i.e. between My Deal or No Deal.kinabalu said:So the evidence is that (by miles) most people (i) hate the deal and (ii) think that no other PM could have got a better one. This is quite an interesting mindset. Put that together, divide both sides by a constant, integrate and then differentiate back up to where we came from and what do we get? That the vast majority of people hate the prospect of leaving the EU. And yet it is certainly NOT the case that the vast majority wish to remain in it. I wonder how we reconcile this. Is it possible for a person to both dread the prospect of doing something and yet be determined to do it? Well of course it is. Just think about Christmas. Yes, that is a very good example, come to think of it. So is that what Brexit is going to be like? Will leaving the European Union be like Christmas?
My Deal - TMay's Deal - would win by a mile. Personally I'd rather Remain than endure her awful deal, but the public disagrees with me, and the EU is not going to offer any more.
Once she has secured a result in a referendum, parliament will just have to accept it.
- The deal
- No Brexit
- No deal, managed or otherwise
There is neither time nor will for another referendum, nor is there time nor will for another negotiation.
We have a decent deal; Remainer and Leaver wreckers need to hold their noses and vote for it.
So the only question is time, and if the EU will permit an extension so we can deal/no deal/or remain after a campaign, with the necessary time afterward for legislative and other preparations put on hold because of the campaigning.
There may not be time, but there is will. That's part of the problem, in that there is the will for many different options, but not the opportunity or time for them and MPs not recognising that.0 -
The deal is dead. The only question is what comes next.Mortimer said:
I repeat, because some people are not understanding the choices:SeanT said:
So her solution has to be a new referendum, BUT excluding Remain from the ballot paper, i.e. between My Deal or No Deal.kinabalu said:So the evidence is that (by miles) most people (i) hate the deal and (ii) think that no other PM could have got a better one. This is quite an interesting mindset. Put that together, divide both sides by a constant, integrate and then differentiate back up to where we came from and what do we get? That the vast majority of people hate the prospect of leaving the EU. And yet it is certainly NOT the case that the vast majority wish to remain in it. I wonder how we reconcile this. Is it possible for a person to both dread the prospect of doing something and yet be determined to do it? Well of course it is. Just think about Christmas. Yes, that is a very good example, come to think of it. So is that what Brexit is going to be like? Will leaving the European Union be like Christmas?
My Deal - TMay's Deal - would win by a mile. Personally I'd rather Remain than endure her awful deal, but the public disagrees with me, and the EU is not going to offer any more.
Once she has secured a result in a referendum, parliament will just have to accept it.
- The deal
- No Brexit
- No deal, managed or otherwise
There is neither time nor will for another referendum, nor is there time nor will for another negotiation.
We have a decent deal; Remainer and Leaver wreckers need to hold their noses and vote for it.0 -
Nah. That's a bit like saying the SNP don't really want independence. You could ask valid questions about what they'd be for after they got their way, but that doesn't mean they don't desperately want to win.Nigel_Foremain said:
Perhaps in truth, many of the ERG don't actually want Brexit.grabcocque said:
The ERG seem to believe they are far from out of weapons to use. And they're probably right to think that. No Deal is still the default. The ERG need to simply carry on being obstreperous and obstructive to a fault, and could still win the war simply because Parliament is unwilling or unable to stop us crashing over that cliff.kle4 said:On topic, while I am sure they wanted to win I don't think the ERG were operating on the basis of only trying when they thought they could win. Yes they think the members and voters are with them on this (and at least in opposing the deal that is true, if not for solutions), but it does seem that it was mostly about having that fight in the open, that they did everything they could to stop the party going down a route they think is horrendous. Really if they wanted to change direction they needed to move a long long time ago, but that was when they had even fewer on side.
I'd like to believe if we made it to 28th March and there was still no agreement, whoever was PM would have no choice to revoke A50. But I realise that this is an article of blind faith that the UK establishment cannot, will not, ever let the cliff edge happen.
There's highly unlikely to be a referendum of any description. There's no majority in Parliament either on the desirability of a referendum or on the right question or questions to ask; there's arguably not enough time left to organise it; an extension to A50 is problematic at best and impossible if Remain is left on the ballot paper; and any proposal that involves May's Deal as an option will result in withdrawal of support by the DUP and the near-certain fall of the Government.SeanT said:So her solution has to be a new referendum, BUT excluding Remain from the ballot paper, i.e. between My Deal or No Deal.
My Deal - TMay's Deal - would win by a mile. Personally I'd rather Remain than endure her awful deal, but the public disagrees with me, and the EU is not going to offer any more.
Once she has secured a result in a referendum, parliament will just have to accept it.0 -
The EUCO has made clear several times it will countenance an A50 extension for a referendum, provided the referendum's options don't contradict the terms of the negotiated WA.Mortimer said:
There is neither time nor will for another referendum, nor is there time nor will for another negotiation.
i.e. the EU will give us time for a referendum as long as "no deal" isn't an option.
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