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Yesterday was a huge political betting day with £2 million pounds on the Betfair market alone being wagered on the confidence vote on Theresa May.
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Result, I guess.
Well the border question is more difficult. Perhaps we need to accept that to leave the EU meaningfully we'll need to have a hard border or some other compromise with Ireland in time. I don't think this is the end of the world as some are claiming.
Good to know they're taking her seriously.
At this point, I think we should assume May plans to take her deal all the way to 21st January, in the vain and desperate hope a Christmas Miracle will reveal a way forward for her deal that doesn't involve a People's Vote.
Someone in the trade (aha) talking about what WTO terms mean.
https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/11/world-trade-deal?fbclid=IwAR0ND86-cmBHapfcX8O8ov0OU2Z7FchO1X6Ihb2GHij4YhCZHO_jrsfMIUY
Also if it is an option in a new referendum then this can be explained in advance.
2) Well why not explain why.
The space for those in favour of her deal but thinking she must go as she has no remaining political capital that say for instance Jeremy Hunt might get it over the line is seemingly zero Tory MPs.
If we are to revoke in parliament then as you say there is a price that needs to be paid, and it may as well be upfront and say that this is it, we cannot afford to leave and so we are calling it off and do not intend to revisit and we will pay the price for that, I don't buy for a second that 'oh no, we can come back to it later' is genuine on the part of MPs if they go down that route - they will have gotten to that route because they cannot agree a path out, they will never subsequently agree a path to invoke again unless our politics is entirely upended. So if it needs doing do it, be honest about it, and take the hit. Not revoke with a lilly livered suggestion that they will consider it later.
For fear of finding something worse
As pretty much everyone on here has observed, the VONC was an entertaining bit of political theatre, but it was yet more displacement activity. The constitutional crisis is coming. May may have been allowed a one month stay of execution, and it's now scheduled to kick off between 8th and 21st January, but the MV, and the obliteration of May's deal is still a fixed point.
This shows a couple of interesting national figures
% of primary pupils whose first language is not English 21.3%
% of pupils eligible for free school meals at any time in the last six years 24.3%
We don't know what the overlap is between the two groups
Source via
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-46541454
The Tories deserve to be destroyed at the next election over the way they've handled Brexit.
Sadly for us we don't deserve Corbyn.
I think the DUP would ditch the Tories if they so much as suggested that.
Given the low levels of unemployment among EU nationals in the UK, I would guess that group has a relatively low take up of free school meals.
Do we know how the percentage of pupils on free school meals have trended over time? And do we know if there have been meaningful changes to eligibility?
I suppose the contest at least opened up the possibility she could u-turn and offer a referendum without being forced out by her members, but otherwise she has only one play left - a big game of chicken with Labour and the ERG, since everyone on earth down to the ameobas knows she cannot get changes to the backstop from the EU significant enough to get the votes for her deal.
I'm assuming that all those who NC'd May have zero confidence in her are against the deal.
I'm also assuming that a chunk of people who lent May their votes are remainers who are opposed to her deal, but kept her for fear of worse, like a Boris or No Dealer.
How many hard core Tory remainers are there? 20? 25? Let's be conservative, and say 20.
So the number of Tories in Parliament that will
support May's deal is ~180.
oppose May's deal is ~135
Assuming (reasonably) pretty much everyone else is against that means the final tally for the MV will be around
Ayes: 180
Noes: 470
No majority of 290.
181 ayes
469 noes
(minus speaker et al)
She's now there for a year whatever anyone might wish which means she can largely ignore the ERGs and more importantly her regard amongst the public has increased enormously.
Nothing painted a more telling picture than the juxtaposition of Mrs May touring Europe trying her best to get a deal and the bitter figure of Rees Mogg sulking that he couldn't get his own way and she wouldn't resign.
No one likes to see a bully and watching a man beat up a woman is particularly repulsive. i don't know whether there have been polls out but I doubt her popularity has ever been higher
The short answer is a EU citizen has 3 months to find a job. If they can't then they have to prove they have sufficient means to not be a burden on the welfare state/health system via showing they have an independent income/pension and health insurance.
If not then they are deportable.
But no one else wanting to take the job on doesn't help us, even if it keeps her in post for a few months, and who cares about how long she's PM for?
Whereas those from Worcestershire of course speak perfect English.
Least unpopular.
What is worrying is the number of Conservative Association Chairman and supporters I heard on the radio yesterday saying Mrs May should go and they believe No Deal Brexit is the way to go. It is clear that none of them have the faintest clue what they are talking about.
"Because painting No-Deal as anything other than a hand-grenade in the clockwork machinery of the UK’s trade is not only misleading, but actively dangerous.
Even if the fabled ‘managed No-Deal’ can materialize, putting in place the barebones bilateral cooperation agreements required to keep planes in the air, the consequences of No-Deal are grave:
- The goods border between the UK and the EU goes from virtually non-existent to requiring all the bureaucracy, checks and payments of the EU’s border with the few countries with whom they have literally no legal arrangements with beyond the WTO;
- The UK’s services access to Europe (the freedom to sell services remotely, to host EU clients, to establish offices in EU countries and to travel to the EU for work) snaps back from the best in the world to the incredibly limited access the EU offers countries its never done a deal with;
- Precisely zero of the Free Trade Agreements the EU has negotiated appear ready to be rolled over on Brexit Day 1, meaning the UK will (at least temporarily) lose all the market access the EU has negotiated on its behalf;
- The status of millions of British citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK will be in flux;
- The EU has indicated it will immediately and retroactively cease accepting many UK certifications and tests, where its legislation requires testing by an EU body.
To unwind decades of trade and political integration overnight is a really big deal. The whole point of the Withdrawal Agreement was to buy the government more time to prepare for some of the issues above, and negotiate others.
This is really, really serious stuff. Businesses have to get ready.
Re-branding measles as ‘Super Happy Fun Lumps’ doesn’t make the disease less scary, it just drives down vaccination rates. "
Of course, both will then say she did not ask hard enough. Labour at least can claim since they have different red lines there is a greater chance the EU can be persuaded to amend things, whether or not it is a realistic chance.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/overview(popup:ratings/politics/conservative-politicians/all)
Basically voters are idiots.
Why is Hague so popular (relatively)?
Good news for May - 100% of people had heard of her, vs 97% had heard of Boris and a mere 39% for Raab.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1073163135312384001?s=19
1. Our trade relationships with the rest of the world, where we drop out of existing EU agreements. So, British firms will no longer be legally able to have Korean banking licenses, for example.
2. Falling out of the EU rules on prevention of double taxation and withholding taxes. This will have a major negative impact for firms that have UK based European holding companies. (Like, errr, the one I was CFO of.) The real hassle with this one, which will have a long-term impact on the willingness of non-EU firms to invest in the UK, is that because corporate tax is a non-EU competency, we will need to resolve the issue with each of the other 26 countries in the EU, so it might take some time to sort out.
3. The administration requirements on firms who currently do minimal paperwork around EU exports, who will now be required to make much more administration.
4. The rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice-versa to stay and work. Again, as this is a non-EU competency issue, if we drop out without a deal, then we need to get the French government to pass legislation regarding the rights of British workers there.
All these are solvable. It's just that solving them doesn't happen immediately. As we've seen with the US and Open Skies, replicating existing trading agreements is by no means simple, and every country we talk to is keen to extract their pound of flesh as we're the desperate ones.
Longer term, the biggest issue is that the UK economy is utterly dependent on consumption. And consumption levels are held up by high house prices (which mean we all feel comfortable spending more than we earn, because - hey! - we've got loads of equity in our properties.) A decline in migration levels, combined with the inevitable demographic drag, will likely pressure house prices in a downward direction. And that means people will have lower savings at the Bank of Bricks and Mortar, and therefore will cut consumer spending to compensate. This could - and probably will - lead to a serious multi-year recession, as our economy adjusts. Fundamentally, though, our over-reliance on consumption is not an EU-related problem. It's just that being in the EU hid it. Brexit merely brings denoument forward.
I was also shocked at the number of complaints about her trying to secure some concessions in Europe. Unsuccessfully, and was her heart really in it, and the MV being pulled meant she earned much opprobrium, but there were still people who were demanding she try to renegotiate something...complaining that she was trying to, at least in some measure, seeking to renegotiate something, labelling it as begging etc. Which it might well have been, but whether she begs, pleads or demands, they still insisted she tried then whinged when she did try.
But it goes back to what can she do to try to fix things now, and I'm coming up with nothing.
Of course, as far as the EUCO is concerned, that was always the intention anyway, implicit in the WA, so it's hardly a concession for them to commit on a best-effort basis to do what they already thought they had committed to.
So, yes. May will be able to claim if you squint a bit, that she has gained "legally binding assurances" on the backstop, but no, it won't actually change the operation of the Withdrawal Agreement in any way at all.
Also, it's not going to change anyone's mind.
I'm not a fan of Theresa May but under her leadership the Tories have consistently polled above 40%.
I think a Corbyn government would be an enormous risk to the country but I have to accept that many voters like him.
Brilliant.
However I think your description of JRM is totally unfair.
He always comes across as very polite.
Also his arguments are sound , wether you agree with them is a different matter.
I bet the first thing she says is 'Look, I wasn't expecting to be here today to be honest'.
The mismatch between how he presents and how he behaves is incredibly stark.
Once May has been used as a human shield/punchbag - for the unloved Deal itself, as a fall gal for Parliament's failure to agree on any alternative, and for her lack of preparation for a Hard Brexit - then she'll be handed the bottle of whisky and the pearl-handled pistol. If she hasn't already used them of her own volition by then, of course.
This is a course of action that they may come to bitterly regret. If there's a VoNC and an early election then they're relying on May resigning out of duty, giving them the two week pantomime window mandated by the FTPA to crown a successor. But if May sees her duty as not abandoning her post in a hurricane and choosing to go down with the ship then they can't shift her, so they end up having her lead them into another election. Even worse, if May does go but they can't agree on a unity candidate to succeed her, then they would go into the election campaign with no leader and Prime Ministerial candidate at all. Under those circumstances, most Tory MPs might just as well not bother to mount a defence of their seats and start looking for alternative employment immediately.
Though I did like the theory Corbyn could be bought off with the promise of a May/June GE, so May steps down in Feb/March and a new leader takes over then.
Win/win for most of the parties, but I cannot see Labour risking being involved in passing any Brexit deal when they might get a GE anyway.
Nadine Dorries showed the correct way to behave after the confidence vote. "It's not the way I voted, but I respect the result."
As my wife is fed up with Brexit.
However one anecdote.
The referendum split my family.
My elderly father voted leave, mainly due to immigration.
The other day out of the blue he said if he knew now how difficult it would be.
He would have voted remain.
I'd like to believe if we made it to 28th March and there was still no agreement, whoever was PM would have no choice to revoke A50. But I realise that this is an article of blind faith that the UK establishment cannot, will not, ever let the cliff edge happen.
It's why the Tories should be petrified of a GE. At least if they pass a deal and the DUP then bring them down someone could perhaps swiftly take over on a 'Look, we know Brexit was tough but we have now secured Brexit (sotto voce - though there will be years and years to come on minutiae) and you need to vote for us because Corbyn IRA economic chaos etc etc'. If they are brought down without there being a deal, and it is before exit day, what can any leader say they will do?
The Establishment is powerless to act this time because it is split between two rival political parties, the members of each of which seem more afraid of helping the other than they are of a Hard Brexit. If that continues then No Deal is inevitable.
- The deal
- No Brexit
- No deal, managed or otherwise
There is neither time nor will for another referendum, nor is there time nor will for another negotiation.
We have a decent deal; Remainer and Leaver wreckers need to hold their noses and vote for it.
So the only question is time, and if the EU will permit an extension so we can deal/no deal/or remain after a campaign, with the necessary time afterward for legislative and other preparations put on hold because of the campaigning.
There may not be time, but there is will. That's part of the problem, in that there is the will for many different options, but not the opportunity or time for them and MPs not recognising that.
i.e. the EU will give us time for a referendum as long as "no deal" isn't an option.